Ryanair CEO claims that Norwegian will go bankrupt

Gulfstream500 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:08 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/budget- ... laims.html

The article sounds like what every a.netter has been saying...

Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said that rival airline Norwegian is bound to go bust sooner or later, claiming that the company is “doomed.”

Never one to mince his words, O’Leary told CNBC Monday that the rival budget European airline Norwegian was saddled “with enormous debts.”

“We’re seeing the emergence of four or five large airlines across Europe and Ryanair is by far the largest in passenger number terms, and you’ve seen in our numbers this morning that we’ve delivered 11% traffic growth ... on the back of 5% lower airfares,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“We are continually cutting costs, Ryanair is continually passing on those lower fares, and that’s what stimulating our growth and it’s what’s accelerating the demise of airlines like Thomas Cook, (French budget airline) Aigle Azur and Norwegian, who I think won’t be far behind them.”

Asked whether he thinks Norwegian is going bust, O’Leary referenced Norwegian’s decision to sell aircraft this year.

“They’re now resorting to selling the aircraft to raise 50 million bucks, which wouldn’t pay the fuel bill for a week. Norwegian is doomed, the business model doesn’t work and they’re saddled now with enormous debts. It’s only a matter of time before it goes bust.”

A spokesperson for Norwegian, known formally as Norwegian Air Shuttle, wasn’t immediately available when contacted by CNBC.

gatibosgru · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:15 am

Wishful thinking

enilria · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:16 am

Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

winginit · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:21 am

enilria wrote:
Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

Even if they were to get a compensation check from Boeing regarding the MAX, they'd be last in line no? If you're Boeing, and everyone is throwing litigation at you, are you going to pay the airline that's increasingly on the cusp of insolvency before those whose relationships you need to maintain to ensure future orders? Of course not. You'll pay WN and AA and UA and the like and then maybe you'll get around to Norwegian before they go bust.

Norwegian will inevitably collapse - they're now firmly on the AirBerlin / Jet Airways track - it's only a matter of time.

gatibosgru wrote:
Wishful thinking

State your claim - will Norwegian exist in 2021? I'll bet no.

aviationaware · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:26 am

He’s right, but in the meantime he is exposing himself to a big fat lawsuit there as well.

ricq · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:35 am

He and many on a-net have being saying this for two or three years now--that Norwegian is on the verge of bankruptcy. Eventually it may happen. And everyone will say "I told you so." But their timing has been way off.

MIflyer12 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:41 am

aviationaware wrote:
He’s right, but in the meantime he is exposing himself to a big fat lawsuit there as well.

In what jurisdiction, under what law?

davidjohnson6 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:52 am

I believe the results presentation was given in the UK. I could imagine that under the law of England/Wales, Norwegian would be able to make a claim in court without being thrown out in advance. Stelios of Easyjet fame has sued for less. Flyglobespan (who went bust in the end) threatened to sue over a betting company offering odds on which airline would go bust - they persuaded the betting company to stop taking bets very quickly. The 2013 Defamation Act would make a claim by Norwegian more difficult than before 2013, but certainly not impossible

English/Welsh law doesn't really have an equivalent of the US constitutional right of freedom of speech

jaybird · Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:32 am

enilria wrote:
Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

Don't know how it works on "that side of the pond" - but if it was in the US - the estate could file and the $$ would go to the creditors in bankruptcy court.

alo2yyz · Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:47 am

At the risk of asking a preposterously dumb question -

"Norwegian" is a collection of different corporate entities, right? Intra-Europe, LCC long-haul, and the setup in Argentina.

So when folks talk about "Norwegian" going under, is that the whole shebang? Or just the long-haul entity?

DocLightning · Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:55 am

MOL spouting off at the mouth and predicting the demise of a rival in his completely unbiased opinion? I'm shocked. SHOCKED!

What next? Akbar Al-Baker is angry at an OEM about something? What is this world coming to?

Look, MOL might be right, but I think that he only has slightly better insight than anyone on this forum. He can't see Norwegian's books.

VSMUT · Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:22 am

alo2yyz wrote:
At the risk of asking a preposterously dumb question -

"Norwegian" is a collection of different corporate entities, right? Intra-Europe, LCC long-haul, and the setup in Argentina.

So when folks talk about "Norwegian" going under, is that the whole shebang? Or just the long-haul entity?

It would be more correct to say that it is 1 company with a plethora of different AOCs. Pretty sure the entire European thing would go bust at once.
Argentina is a different case, I believe they only own about half of that company.

325i · Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:23 am

Greetings All, here is a left field comment, maybe looking at a "cheap" takeover!
Cheers 325i

Blueknows · Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:03 am

Just listened to a podcast
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s ... 0455614620

I think DY will be fine. Looks like they are taking correct adjustments for growth. Also the B6 inter line will help revenue growth up starting in 2020.

Etika · Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:23 am

aviationaware wrote:
He’s right, but in the meantime he is exposing himself to a big fat lawsuit there as well.

That would be extremely poor idea by Norwegian. I doubt O'Leary would be intimidated by a lawsuit. In fact, I would expect him to relish the idea of taking Norwegian on in court. And the defense would likely make the argument that whether Norwegian is actually in dire situation economically is a material fact of the case. Thus, the whole court case would become a platform where O'Leary could make this argument again, challenging Norwegian to counter the claim. Can you imagine the headlines? Or what it would do for Norwegian's attempts to obtain further funding? Those costs could easily be far more than what Norwegian could hope to gain from the court case.

tommy1808 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:30 am

winginit wrote:
enilria wrote:
Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

Even if they were to get a compensation check from Boeing regarding the MAX, they'd be last in line no? If you're Boeing, and everyone is throwing litigation at you, are you going to pay the airline that's increasingly on the cusp of insolvency before those whose relationships you need to maintain to ensure future orders? Of course not. You'll pay WN and AA and UA and the like and then maybe you'll get around to Norwegian before they go bust.

And the insolvency administrator will have issues pressing the suit why exactly? Heck, he may even claim higher damages after bankruptcy....

best regards
Thomas

skipness1E · Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:48 am

Revenue is all well and good so long as debt is at a manageable level, and interests rates remain stable with low fuel costs. Given Norwegian are very heavily indebted, the next economic shock, which can’t be too far in the cycle now, will be a major challenge. Remember Thomas Cook were strangled by their debt burden dating back to the MyTravel buy out, it took time but options disappeared one by one.

N14AZ · Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:03 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
He’s right, but in the meantime he is exposing himself to a big fat lawsuit there as well.

In what jurisdiction, under what law?

In Germany such statements could lead to lawsuits. Decades ago, my father without thinking about the consequences made the same nasty comments about a contractor in a construction progress meeting. He had to apologize officially and to pay a fine of several hundreds Deutsch-Marks.. :-/

Andy33 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:11 am

He's predicted that Norwegian will go bankrupt before. They didn't sue him then, although the fact that they are still trading today would have given some good grounds. Explaining why they chose to sue now rather than in the past might make for some awkward moments in court. And where was he when he made the statement? Probably in Ireland, so it would be Irish law we should be considering.

mjoelnir · Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:24 am

winginit wrote:
enilria wrote:
Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

Even if they were to get a compensation check from Boeing regarding the MAX, they'd be last in line no? If you're Boeing, and everyone is throwing litigation at you, are you going to pay the airline that's increasingly on the cusp of insolvency before those whose relationships you need to maintain to ensure future orders? Of course not. You'll pay WN and AA and UA and the like and then maybe you'll get around to Norwegian before they go bust.

Norwegian will inevitably collapse - they're now firmly on the AirBerlin / Jet Airways track - it's only a matter of time.

gatibosgru wrote:
Wishful thinking

State your claim - will Norwegian exist in 2021? I'll bet no.

A bankruptcy will not stand in the way of a Norwegian claim being be presented to Boeing. The guys who run a bankruptcy are usually very hard in collecting money, very litigious, future relationships may be damned.

Galwayman · Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:26 am

He’s simply offered an opinion . They’d have to be idiots to even think about taking legal action against one of the worlds most successful airline business people for expressing his opinion that he thinks they have too much debt .

uta999 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:10 am

One could also say that Ryan Air themselves are a bit exposed to any future economic shock, accounting scandal, and operating just one aircraft type (737). Not a good idea given the MAX saga.

Andy33 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:38 am

uta999 wrote:
One could also say that Ryan Air themselves are a bit exposed to any future economic shock, accounting scandal, and operating just one aircraft type (737). Not a good idea given the MAX saga.

Except that they are hedging their bets by expanding their subsidiary Laudamotion which flies only A320s and A321s. The Ryanair group is still overwhelmingly a 737 operator, but things are changing slowly.

bennett123 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:36 pm

Better response is You said this years ago, and you are as wrong now as you were then’.

IndianicWorld · Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:50 pm

MOL loves to talk about Norwegian, which may well just be another way to erode confidence in them to either buy parts of their business cheaply or see them disappear completely, opening up more opportunities for them to open.

I don’t think it’s professional to offer such opinions in his position about a rival though, as it does seem quite questionable in terms of his motives for doing so.

Eikie · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:00 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
MOL loves to talk about Norwegian, which may well just be another way to erode confidence in them to either buy parts of their business cheaply or see them disappear completely, opening up more opportunities for them to open.

I don’t think it’s professional to offer such opinions in his position about a rival though, as it does seem quite questionable in terms of his motives for doing so.

Remember, we are talking about an airline which celebrated the loss of jobs and income with the "bye bye...." adverts whenever an airline went (almost) bankrupt...

MCTSET · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:29 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
MOL loves to talk about Norwegian, which may well just be another way to erode confidence in them to either buy parts of their business cheaply or see them disappear completely, opening up more opportunities for them to open.

I don’t think it’s professional to offer such opinions in his position about a rival though, as it does seem quite questionable in terms of his motives for doing so.

Exactly nobody wants Norwegian to fail more than MOL. The consequences would be fantastic for him, huge load of 737 on the market with a few maxes and an large whole in Boeing's order book, large release of 737 rated pilots ready to go, many of whom previously worked for ryanair. And best of all a large whole in the market they can jump on. These statements are his hopes.

stlgph · Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:39 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Just listened to a podcast
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s ... 0455614620

I think DY will be fine. Looks like they are taking correct adjustments for growth. Also the B6 inter line will help revenue growth up starting in 2020.

Yeah, all those connections coming to and from say two or three flights from Gatwick will save the day

enilria · Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:11 pm

winginit wrote:
enilria wrote:
Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

Even if they were to get a compensation check from Boeing regarding the MAX, they'd be last in line no? If you're Boeing, and everyone is throwing litigation at you, are you going to pay the airline that's increasingly on the cusp of insolvency before those whose relationships you need to maintain to ensure future orders? Of course not. You'll pay WN and AA and UA and the like and then maybe you'll get around to Norwegian before they go bust.

Norwegian will inevitably collapse - they're now firmly on the AirBerlin / Jet Airways track - it's only a matter of time.

gatibosgru wrote:
Wishful thinking

State your claim - will Norwegian exist in 2021? I'll bet no.

Yes you are, because Norwegian is the key to transatlantic capacity growth which leads to other orders. If Norwegian goes away, prices go up, and then other airlines shrink and reduce their fleet plan. Norwegian is key to manufacturer order growth.

sas931 · Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:37 pm

Dont think that Norwegian will go bankrupt, but they might need to scale down...f.ex stop B787 flights

winginit · Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:52 pm

enilria wrote:
winginit wrote:
enilria wrote:
Of course talking down Norwegian benefits RyanAir, but I think we all know Norwegian is in some trouble. I’d be interested in knowing if they will get a compensation check from Boeing on the MAX?

Even if they were to get a compensation check from Boeing regarding the MAX, they'd be last in line no? If you're Boeing, and everyone is throwing litigation at you, are you going to pay the airline that's increasingly on the cusp of insolvency before those whose relationships you need to maintain to ensure future orders? Of course not. You'll pay WN and AA and UA and the like and then maybe you'll get around to Norwegian before they go bust.

Norwegian will inevitably collapse - they're now firmly on the AirBerlin / Jet Airways track - it's only a matter of time.

gatibosgru wrote:
Wishful thinking

State your claim - will Norwegian exist in 2021? I'll bet no.

Yes you are, because Norwegian is the key to transatlantic capacity growth which leads to other orders. If Norwegian goes away, prices go up, and then other airlines shrink and reduce their fleet plan. Norwegian is key to manufacturer order growth.

I have serious doubts as to whether or not that's how Boeing would view the situation. The additional competitive TATL capacity spurred by DY is a drop in the bucket compared to Boeing's breadth of provided equipment.

It'd be one thing if macro economic challenges were leading to the demise of a carrier who executed a rational business plan from the start, but Norwegian's growth and business plan were never sustainable.

spinotter · Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:52 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Wishful thinking

No, I think MOL is correct in his prediction, but it might take a while and there will be some anxious moments before the Gotterdammerung unfolds. Why Bjørn Kjos did not stick to Scandinavia, Europe and nearly regions I do not know. Delusions of grandeur in late middle age?

alo2yyz · Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:54 pm

VSMUT wrote:
alo2yyz wrote:
At the risk of asking a preposterously dumb question -

"Norwegian" is a collection of different corporate entities, right? Intra-Europe, LCC long-haul, and the setup in Argentina.

So when folks talk about "Norwegian" going under, is that the whole shebang? Or just the long-haul entity?

It would be more correct to say that it is 1 company with a plethora of different AOCs. Pretty sure the entire European thing would go bust at once.
Argentina is a different case, I believe they only own about half of that company.

Ah, got it. Thanks for the clarification.

VS4ever · Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:49 am

https://news.yahoo.com/struggling-norwe ... 03764.html
Well given they have just raised $272m to (per the article) fully fund the airline through 2020 and beyond. I think MOL is still early in the demise phase. While they are going to continue to struggle, the markets (in whatever form) continue to back them.

NYPECO · Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:52 am

People were saying Norwegian wouldn't survive the summer. In 2018.

Someone83 · Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:44 am

NYPECO wrote:
People were saying Norwegian wouldn't survive the summer. In 2018.

Actually, it has been said since 2004.....

Northpole · Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:12 am

Not exactly a class act from O´Leary

vhtje · Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:41 am

Blueknows wrote:
Just listened to a podcast
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s ... 0455614620

I think DY will be fine.

I am not so certain. I had a quick glance at DY's published financials yesterday. Their equity-to-assets ratio - in 2018, mind, and assuming the figures I was looking at were correct - was dire, being less than 3%. I can only assume it has worsened since then. This is a key KPI for a business and measures how many of the assets are actually owned, as opposed to under finance.

That means that over 97% of the DY business is under finance.

Let that sink in...

CeddP · Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:11 am

sas931 wrote:
Dont think that Norwegian will go bankrupt, but they might need to scale down...f.ex stop B787 flights

So stop the thing that makes most of the money at the moment?? :scratchchin:

FluidFlow · Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:22 am

CeddP wrote:
sas931 wrote:
Dont think that Norwegian will go bankrupt, but they might need to scale down...f.ex stop B787 flights

So stop the thing that makes most of the money at the moment??

Some of the 787 are not really airworthy with the RR engine. It is kind of a really sad story with Norwegian. They got the "shitty" 787s instead of the good one, now the MAX saga.

Instead of taking the compensation money for the MAX, they should tell Boeing to take the 787s with RR engines back and give out new 787s with the GEnx.

P1aneMad · Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:28 am

CeddP wrote:
sas931 wrote:
Dont think that Norwegian will go bankrupt, but they might need to scale down...f.ex stop B787 flights

So stop the thing that makes most of the money at the moment??

Turnover≠making money, i.e. profit
In the case of DY longhaul flights are probably what's generating most of the losses.

Blueknows · Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:41 am

https://airlinerwatch.com/norwegian-res ... at-airbus/

Interesting with the B6 inter line. B6 looking to get more aircraft, and current aircraft late. I’m thinking they might have did a little 3 way airbus DY/B6 deal with deliveries and moving of orders

CeddP · Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:14 am

P1aneMad wrote:
CeddP wrote:
sas931 wrote:
Dont think that Norwegian will go bankrupt, but they might need to scale down...f.ex stop B787 flights

So stop the thing that makes most of the money at the moment??

Turnover≠making money, i.e. profit
In the case of DY longhaul flights are probably what's generating most of the losses.

Profit is what I was implying. Contrary to a popular belief here on Anet, long haul is what's “keeping afloat” Norwegian now, with several parts of its short haul dragging it down. I don’t have a specific reference for this, but that’s what Geir Karlsen has been explaining at every meeting/press conferences for the last 9 months...

a350lover · Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:04 am

CeddP wrote:

Profit is what I was implying. Contrary to a popular belief here on Anet, long haul is what's “keeping afloat” Norwegian now, with several parts of its short haul dragging it down. I don’t have a specific reference for this, but that’s what Geir Karlsen has been explaining at every meeting/press conferences for the last 9 months...

However, interestingly when one looks at their numbers 2013 marks the turn of their profit. They posted decent profits year after year from launch date in 2005 to 2013 (with just a single exception in 2006). In 2014, only 6 months after the first long-haul operation in May 2013 they lost 1627 MNOK. Then after, we all very well know the story of the Norwegian finances. I would consider their rapid growth and of course their TATL operation as possible causes for their poor finance performance.

kanye · Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:55 am

NYPECO wrote:
People were saying Norwegian wouldn't survive the summer. In 2018.

Which is actually true but since then Norwegian has issued new shares and been recapitalised three times in last two years. Without this money Norwegian wouldn’t fly today. Question is how long investors are ready to give them more money.

Aesma · Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:02 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
MOL loves to talk about Norwegian, which may well just be another way to erode confidence in them to either buy parts of their business cheaply or see them disappear completely, opening up more opportunities for them to open.

I don’t think it’s professional to offer such opinions in his position about a rival though, as it does seem quite questionable in terms of his motives for doing so.

Well MOL is the king of "any publicity is good publicity" so he's kindly providing publicity for Norwegian...

CeddP · Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:57 am

a350lover wrote:
CeddP wrote:

Profit is what I was implying. Contrary to a popular belief here on Anet, long haul is what's “keeping afloat” Norwegian now, with several parts of its short haul dragging it down. I don’t have a specific reference for this, but that’s what Geir Karlsen has been explaining at every meeting/press conferences for the last 9 months...

However, interestingly when one looks at their numbers 2013 marks the turn of their profit. They posted decent profits year after year from launch date in 2005 to 2013 (with just a single exception in 2006). In 2014, only 6 months after the first long-haul operation in May 2013 they lost 1627 MNOK. Then after, we all very well know the story of the Norwegian finances. I would consider their rapid growth and of course their TATL operation as possible causes for their poor finance performance.

Things are not static in this industry, or anywhere else for that matter. As you say, there's no doubt that launching LH burnt big piles of cash initially, while at the same time Europe was not yet subject to massive overcapacity. Situation today is reversed, and I can't understand why people can't accept it even when CFO-CEO says so. This guy, contrary to its predecessor, is a pure finance guy focusing on numbers (which is what norwegian desperately needed!) instead of grand vision... If he decides to reduce capacity in Europe, close short haul bases, tranfer pilots from short to long haul and so on, there's to be a reason for it...
The only LH thing that never worked in norwegian was the TATL ops with the 737. And it's long gone fortunately

malev2012 · Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:38 pm

They just inked a deal for a co-brand credit card in the US, which gives them revenue they didn't have before: https://viewfromthewing.com/new-u-s-cre ... -lifeline/

Mboyle1988 · Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
He’s right, but in the meantime he is exposing himself to a big fat lawsuit there as well.

In what jurisdiction, under what law?

UK has really awful libel laws. No such thing as free speech across the pond...

Waterbomber2 · Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:02 pm

If you think about it, Norwegian is a perfect take over target for Ryanair.
Paint the aircraft in the hideous Ryanair livery, call it Ryanair Nordic and bam, MOL gets a huge growth and his TATL ops.

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