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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:50 pm

william wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think we have heard over the years many instances the strategies of

- "let's fix our current business first, before we do something new"
- "with the current backlog / market position, there is no need to invest even if airlines ask for it"

I think often those reasonable strategies were abused to reduce costs / investments, milk the portfolio, boast free cash flow, stock value and directly linked executive salaries.

We have seen that in the end you hit the wall. Because you drained the company & have no reserves for updating your portfolio / survive crisis.
At that time, the executives have retired & the Wall Street guys have left the room, loaded.
While the loyal, embedded, profit sharing executors lose their jobs.

A serious aerospace company has a 10-20 year planning horizon & isn't governed by today's stock price / market sentiments.

- You sail with the wind when possible, but put on the engine when required -

Unless you had to meet 3Q18 free cash flow expectations, so sold-leased back the engine to the equity fund.
Who used borrowed money, and pragmatically need 20% ROI for dividends / keep growing stock value

Most of this may appropriate as a critique of Boeing, but is totally irrelevant as to Airbus. The reminder is just bland, insipid, dewy-eyed straight-from-Business 101 boilerplate with no basis in current reality.

The A22V may in the past have even been looked by BBD and Airbus. I would be very surprised if it hadn't. Virtually everyone here has been acknowledging A's leadership in the NB market. Dominance in fact, and the numbers show it. Look at the backlog and it's silly not to. Heck, not only was the A2XN selling like hotcakes, the only competitor had its offering grounded! High fives all around. But that doesn't allow serious people to ignore real problems that Airbus has in actually getting those planes in customers hands, and they need to get planes and not pie in the sky. Having orders is great: There's no company without them, right BBD?. But as BBD found, even if you sell planes at an expected but "acceptable" loss to get that foot in the door, you need to actually build them and if that is more difficult/costly than originally thought, then it really isn't ???, profit. It's $$$, losses. And that's where Airbus is now with the A22X project. A22X "production line" is not like VW, it's like Aston Martin. Fulfilling the orders they ALREADY HAVE even at the most optimistic rate will take more than 6 years. Boosting that rate is going to cost serious capital, but Airbus can certainly do that where BBD couldn't. Maybe they will also pull a Boeing (heavens forfend!) and stick it to the suppliers.

So now let's have a look at Airbus's market dominant home-grown NB line. It consists of 2 products in reality, the A20N and the nonpareil A21N. Multiple thousands of real orders for each, sold out for years. But Airbus acknowledges there have been production difficulties in getting them out the door. Insurmountable? Of course not, but all the talk about going to rate 67 or whatever is right out the window isn't it? While I know that a focus on cash flow is scoffed at by many here, in the real world it matters. For that, deliveries have to happen, or there may be contract penalties tacked on too.

Now where does the A22V fit in to the product line? Oh wait, it nudges into the A20N's lane. So what's an Airbus exec to do? Imagine this pitch meeting.

Q: "You know the A220 is difficult to scale and expensive to build, right?" A: "I am a visionary. Practical considerations like that are below my pay grade.".
Q: "Is the A22V compatible with the 5-figure number of A320 family we have sold?" A: "No it isn't."
Q: "So now we're selling two incompatible products to our customers?" A: "Yes"
Q: "The -100 and -300 fit into niches below the A20N perfectly, but a -500 eats into it, correct?" A: "Err, it might"
Q: "So you want to make the A21N into a vitrual orphan?" A: "Not at all. Let me show you my Powerpoints of the A22N"

Sounds of breaking window on the 9th floor. (I did warn you ;) )


Stop introducing reality into this fanciful discussion.

At this time I agree every study on the A22V is on hold.

But eventually, the lower cost per flight vs. A320N and ability to open up A321N slots will be of value.

But not in 2020 or 2021 (probably later, but let us see). There is a business case, but as noted, right now cash flow accounting must dominate.

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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:06 pm

keesje wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think we have heard over the years many instances the strategies of

- "let's fix our current business first, before we do something new"
- "with the current backlog / market position, there is no need to invest even if airlines ask for it"

I think often those reasonable strategies were abused to reduce costs / investments, milk the portfolio, boast free cash flow, stock value and directly linked executive salaries.

We have seen that in the end you hit the wall. Because you drained the company & have no reserves for updating your portfolio / survive crisis.
At that time, the executives have retired & the Wall Street guys have left the room, loaded.
While the loyal, embedded, profit sharing executors lose their jobs.

A serious aerospace company has a 10-20 year planning horizon & isn't governed by today's stock price / market sentiments.

- You sail with the wind when possible, but put on the engine when required -

Unless you had to meet 3Q18 free cash flow expectations, so sold-leased back the engine to the equity fund.
Who used borrowed money, and pragmatically need 20% ROI for dividends / keep growing stock value

Most of this may appropriate as a critique of Boeing, but is totally irrelevant as to Airbus. The reminder is just bland, insipid, dewy-eyed straight-from-Business 101 boilerplate with no basis in current reality.

The A22V may in the past have even been looked by BBD and Airbus. I would be very surprised if it hadn't. Virtually everyone here has been acknowledging A's leadership in the NB market. Dominance in fact, and the numbers show it. Look at the backlog and it's silly not to. Heck, not only was the A2XN selling like hotcakes, the only competitor had its offering grounded! High fives all around. But that doesn't allow serious people to ignore real problems that Airbus has in actually getting those planes in customers hands, and they need to get planes and not pie in the sky. Having orders is great: There's no company without them, right BBD?. But as BBD found, even if you sell planes at an expected but "acceptable" loss to get that foot in the door, you need to actually build them and if that is more difficult/costly than originally thought, then it really isn't ???, profit. It's $$$, losses. And that's where Airbus is now with the A22X project. A22X "production line" is not like VW, it's like Aston Martin. Fulfilling the orders they ALREADY HAVE even at the most optimistic rate will take more than 6 years. Boosting that rate is going to cost serious capital, but Airbus can certainly do that where BBD couldn't. Maybe they will also pull a Boeing (heavens forfend!) and stick it to the suppliers.

So now let's have a look at Airbus's market dominant home-grown NB line. It consists of 2 products in reality, the A20N and the nonpareil A21N. Multiple thousands of real orders for each, sold out for years. But Airbus acknowledges there have been production difficulties in getting them out the door. Insurmountable? Of course not, but all the talk about going to rate 67 or whatever is right out the window isn't it? While I know that a focus on cash flow is scoffed at by many here, in the real world it matters. For that, deliveries have to happen, or there may be contract penalties tacked on too.

Now where does the A22V fit in to the product line? Oh wait, it nudges into the A20N's lane. So what's an Airbus exec to do? Imagine this pitch meeting.

Q: "You know the A220 is difficult to scale and expensive to build, right?" A: "I am a visionary. Practical considerations like that are below my pay grade.".
Q: "Is the A22V compatible with the 5-figure number of A320 family we have sold?" A: "No it isn't."
Q: "So now we're selling two incompatible products to our customers?" A: "Yes"
Q: "The -100 and -300 fit into niches below the A20N perfectly, but a -500 eats into it, correct?" A: "Err, it might"
Q: "So you want to make the A21N into a vitrual orphan?" A: "Not at all. Let me show you my Powerpoints of the A22N"

Sounds of breaking window on the 9th floor. (I did warn you ;) )


I see all the reasons why Boeing didn't buy the CSeries program, which proved an epic mistake btw

The A220-500 could a real a A320 competitor, if you simply ignore the latter can carry 186 passengers, containers, fly far and is fully competible with 6000 A320/19/21s in the air and 6000 in the backlog. CS production rate is climbing to 4-5 a month, so a real threath here for the Airbus NEO program..


Let’s forget about the narrow body ULD containers. The A320/21 ULD drive system was a headache and those containers are easily damaged and costly to repair, and added extra weight to the aircraft. Depending on the size of the bags, you may be able to pack 8-12 bags in each container. You can pack more and save on cost by simply purchasing extended reach belt loaders like UA did and packing that plane by hand.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:15 pm

keesje wrote:
A serious aerospace company has a 10-20 year planning horizon & isn't governed by today's stock price / market sentiments.

- You sail with the wind when possible, but put on the engine when required -

It helps to make sure your feet touch the ground from time to time. This helps you avoid investing tens of billions of dollars on planes to carry 500+ pax at a time with built in stretches for 800+ and factories to build 48 per year then never selling enough to cover costs and seeing them get retired after 12 years of service with no resale market, or deciding that building a military transport on a commercial contract with all new largest in class engines built by a company you put together on the fly is a good idea.

JonesNL wrote:
Ps.: the number 1 prio should be getting reliability up the bar
Number 2 getting production cost down and production rate up
Number 3 getting more sales, which support investments in the previous subject
After all this they can put the development of the A225 on the agenda...

Indeed. It's not like A220 lacks existing orders, so adding a new model to the mix makes no sense especially in a climate where customers are starved of revenue and the local talent base has imploded. The primary problems are the ones you cite: reliability, production cost, production rate, etc.

JFKalumni wrote:
Let’s forget about the narrow body ULD containers. The A320/21 ULD drive system was a headache and those containers are easily damaged and costly to repair, and added extra weight to the aircraft. Depending on the size of the bags, you may be able to pack 8-12 bags in each container. You can pack more and save on cost by simply purchasing extended reach belt loaders like UA did and packing that plane by hand.

Containers aren't the panacea some suggest they are.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:24 pm

keesje wrote:

I think we have heard over the years many instances the strategies of

- "let's fix our current business first, before we do something new"
- "with the current backlog / market position, there is no need to invest even if airlines ask for it"

I think often those reasonable strategies were abused to reduce costs / investments, milk the portfolio, boast free cash flow, stock value and directly linked executive salaries.

We have seen that in the end you hit the wall. Because you drained the company & have no reserves for updating your portfolio / survive crisis.
At that time, the executives have retired & the Wall Street guys have left the room, loaded.
While the loyal, embedded, profit sharing executors lose their jobs.

A serious aerospace company has a 10-20 year planning horizon & isn't governed by today's stock price / market sentiments.

- You sail with the wind when possible, but put on the engine when required -

Unless you had to meet 3Q18 free cash flow expectations, so sold-leased back the engine to the equity fund.
Who used borrowed money, and pragmatically need 20% ROI for dividends / keep growing stock value


Airbus and Air France are asking the French Government for bailouts so they can make payroll and avoid laying off thousands. Airbus and Air France turning around and using that money to design and buy an all new derivative that they might need 10-20 years in the future seems like a foolish waste of taxpayer money to me, but what do I know? I would think today’s market sentiments matter for taxpayers.

France has unveiled a €15bn (£13bn) rescue plan for its aerospace industry, in an attempt to preserve hundreds of thousands of jobs and shore up the manufacturer Airbus and the national carrier, Air France.
...
The finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said the government would do “everything to support this French industry that is so critical for our sovereignty, our jobs and our economy”, as he launched the plan alongside the transport, defence and environment ministers.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... air-france

I don’t know what the definition of a serious aerospace company is, but I doubt any aerospace company wants to be in the position of depending upon a government rescue package. Making sound investment decisions is something all stakeholders would likely agree are needed.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:46 pm

Compare it to the 787-10, launched in 2013, while 787 production problems hadn't recovered, 787s weren't making any profit and the -9 hadn't even entered service.

The 787 Backlog was above 1000 and the -10 overlapped with the 777 line .

Still Boeing (and me) thought it was a good investment, because the successful, capable 777-200ER/LR offered too much capability but less efficiency at e.g TATL and intra Asia.

If Boeing had been savy at the stage, Airbus would now have a scary WB marketshare with the A350..
Last edited by keesje on Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:54 pm

keesje wrote:
Compare it to the 787-10, launched in 2013, while 787 production problems hadn't recovered, 787s weren't making any profit and the -9 hadn't even entered service. 787 Backlog was above 1000 and the -10 overlapped with the ailing 777 line .

Still Boeing (and me) thought it was a good investment, because the successful, capable 777-200ER/LR offered too much capability at e.g TATL and intra Asia.

If Boeing had been savy at the stage, Airbus would now have a scary WB marketshare with the A350..


I don’t remember either Boeing or any of the 787-10 launch customers (ALC, GECAS, IAG/British Airways, Singapore Airlines and United ) getting government bailouts In 2013 like Airbus and Air France are getting now to prevent them laying off thousands. The world has changed. Where will the cash to fund an A220-500 come from?
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:12 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Compare it to the 787-10, launched in 2013, while 787 production problems hadn't recovered, 787s weren't making any profit and the -9 hadn't even entered service. 787 Backlog was above 1000 and the -10 overlapped with the ailing 777 line .

Still Boeing (and me) thought it was a good investment, because the successful, capable 777-200ER/LR offered too much capability at e.g TATL and intra Asia.

If Boeing had been savy at the stage, Airbus would now have a scary WB marketshare with the A350..


I don’t remember either Boeing or any of the 787-10 launch customers (ALC, GECAS, IAG/British Airways, Singapore Airlines and United ) getting government bailouts In 2013 like Airbus and Air France are getting now to prevent them laying off thousands. The world has changed. Where will the cash to fund an A220-500 come from?


Boeing was strongly supported and in deep trouble.
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/article ... g_433.html

Strong parallels to the A220-500 business case. If you can't look ahead 5-10 years and always let short term enents / risk prevail to kill another business case, you'll end up with a dated portfolio and reduced margin and perspective.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
william wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Most of this may appropriate as a critique of Boeing, but is totally irrelevant as to Airbus. The reminder is just bland, insipid, dewy-eyed straight-from-Business 101 boilerplate with no basis in current reality.

The A22V may in the past have even been looked by BBD and Airbus. I would be very surprised if it hadn't. Virtually everyone here has been acknowledging A's leadership in the NB market. Dominance in fact, and the numbers show it. Look at the backlog and it's silly not to. Heck, not only was the A2XN selling like hotcakes, the only competitor had its offering grounded! High fives all around. But that doesn't allow serious people to ignore real problems that Airbus has in actually getting those planes in customers hands, and they need to get planes and not pie in the sky. Having orders is great: There's no company without them, right BBD?. But as BBD found, even if you sell planes at an expected but "acceptable" loss to get that foot in the door, you need to actually build them and if that is more difficult/costly than originally thought, then it really isn't ???, profit. It's $$$, losses. And that's where Airbus is now with the A22X project. A22X "production line" is not like VW, it's like Aston Martin. Fulfilling the orders they ALREADY HAVE even at the most optimistic rate will take more than 6 years. Boosting that rate is going to cost serious capital, but Airbus can certainly do that where BBD couldn't. Maybe they will also pull a Boeing (heavens forfend!) and stick it to the suppliers.

So now let's have a look at Airbus's market dominant home-grown NB line. It consists of 2 products in reality, the A20N and the nonpareil A21N. Multiple thousands of real orders for each, sold out for years. But Airbus acknowledges there have been production difficulties in getting them out the door. Insurmountable? Of course not, but all the talk about going to rate 67 or whatever is right out the window isn't it? While I know that a focus on cash flow is scoffed at by many here, in the real world it matters. For that, deliveries have to happen, or there may be contract penalties tacked on too.

Now where does the A22V fit in to the product line? Oh wait, it nudges into the A20N's lane. So what's an Airbus exec to do? Imagine this pitch meeting.

Q: "You know the A220 is difficult to scale and expensive to build, right?" A: "I am a visionary. Practical considerations like that are below my pay grade.".
Q: "Is the A22V compatible with the 5-figure number of A320 family we have sold?" A: "No it isn't."
Q: "So now we're selling two incompatible products to our customers?" A: "Yes"
Q: "The -100 and -300 fit into niches below the A20N perfectly, but a -500 eats into it, correct?" A: "Err, it might"
Q: "So you want to make the A21N into a vitrual orphan?" A: "Not at all. Let me show you my Powerpoints of the A22N"

Sounds of breaking window on the 9th floor. (I did warn you ;) )


Stop introducing reality into this fanciful discussion.

At this time I agree every study on the A22V is on hold.

But eventually, the lower cost per flight vs. A320N and ability to open up A321N slots will be of value.

But not in 2020 or 2021 (probably later, but let us see). There is a business case, but as noted, right now cash flow accounting must dominate.

Lightsaber


Yep. This is where I'm at. I think Covid pushed everything to the right by 2-3 years. I can still see a 225 launch by 2025, if the ramp and cost-cutting goes decently. 70/mo production rate for the 320N was always going to be stressful. Now they get a breather. The can ramp on the 220, mature the type a bit more, see what Boeing is going to do and target the 225 perfectly. In the process, they shift 320N production slots to the higher margin models. I'm thinking big demand coming in for LR and XLR. The 225 would also improve the return on each 220 slot. So win-win as I see it.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:28 pm

keesje wrote:
Boeing was strongly supported and in deep trouble.
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/article ... g_433.html

Strong parallels to the A220-500 business case. If you can't look ahead 5-10 years and always let short term enents / risk prevail to kill another business case, you'll end up with a dated portfolio and reduced margin and perspective.

Airbus has control of A220 for months now and hasn't announced an A220-500, so I guess they are okay with a dated portfolio, reduced margin and perspective, etc.

For instance, from Jan 2020:

As have other Airbus executives, Balducchi declines to discuss whether Airbus intends to develop a stretched version of the A220 commonly called the A220-500.

He says Airbus already has a full plate addressing cost and production ramp challenges it faces with the A220-100 and A220-300.

“We will propose solutions when the time has come, and the time is not now,” Balducchi says. “We will continue to listen to what the customers… want.”

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 64.article

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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
“We will propose solutions when the time has come, and the time is not now,” Balducchi says. “We will continue to listen to what the customers… want.”

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 64.article

No motion, no action...


Things can change fast..
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:08 pm

keesje wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Compare it to the 787-10, launched in 2013, while 787 production problems hadn't recovered, 787s weren't making any profit and the -9 hadn't even entered service. 787 Backlog was above 1000 and the -10 overlapped with the ailing 777 line .

Still Boeing (and me) thought it was a good investment, because the successful, capable 777-200ER/LR offered too much capability at e.g TATL and intra Asia.

If Boeing had been savy at the stage, Airbus would now have a scary WB marketshare with the A350..


I don’t remember either Boeing or any of the 787-10 launch customers (ALC, GECAS, IAG/British Airways, Singapore Airlines and United ) getting government bailouts In 2013 like Airbus and Air France are getting now to prevent them laying off thousands. The world has changed. Where will the cash to fund an A220-500 come from?


Boeing was strongly supported and in deep trouble.
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/article ... g_433.html

Strong parallels to the A220-500 business case. If you can't look ahead 5-10 years and always let short term enents / risk prevail to kill another business case, you'll end up with a dated portfolio and reduced margin and perspective.


I’m not so sure how a hit piece by a lobbyist against the export import bank has to do with the current financial situation where Airbus and Air France are getting bailouts.

How hard is it to understand that the business case for Air France launching an A220-500 in the near future evaporated?
Last edited by Weatherwatcher1 on Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:10 pm

keesje wrote:
Things can change fast..

Yeah, there could be a second wave of coronavirus, etc...
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Things can change fast..

Yeah, there could be a second wave of coronavirus, etc...


Things change fast like 90% of the worldwide disappearing in a matter of weeks, but debt doesn’t go away as fast.

It will take time for airlines to be able to afford deliveries again, longer for them to place new orders and even longer before passenger operators launch new airplanes.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:48 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

I don’t remember either Boeing or any of the 787-10 launch customers (ALC, GECAS, IAG/British Airways, Singapore Airlines and United ) getting government bailouts In 2013 like Airbus and Air France are getting now to prevent them laying off thousands.

--

keesje wrote:
Boeing was strongly supported and in deep trouble.
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/article ... g_433.html

Strong parallels to the A220-500 business case.


---
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

I’m not so sure how a hit piece by a lobbyist against the export import bank has to do with the current financial situation where Airbus and Air France are getting bailouts.


? You said Boeing wasn't getting government bailouts, then I link a 2013 article discussing them & then you say it hasn't anything to do with it. ok..

Back to the topic: A220-500, I think a lot of work was already done by BBD a decade ago and that were almost all the development work would be done by Airbus Canada. Not high intensity, just modelling, CFD, production engineering, fatigue, tunneling, other groundwork. They won't sit on their hands & stop everything because of Corona. You can send the CS team home. They'll announce when the time is right, not before.

It might be possible for airlines like QF and AC to have an A220-300/500 plus A321 fleet.

Covering 120-220 seats, 400-4000NM, skipping the now dominant A320 and 737-800/8s.

The ~150 seat A220-300 leaves open a too large gab (150-200 seats) for such a fleet build up.

But 4-5 rows extra for a A220-500, complemented by A321s to cover the higher end of the NB segment could change the picture.

That could be a reason BBD and Airbus have always stayed quiet on the topic, and Boeing tried to kill the program.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:29 pm

Why should Airbus work to open a market place for a MoM style aircraft? Once the A321 does not longer profit from being a member of a large base of existing A320s it loses it´s biggest benefit.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:40 pm

keesje wrote:
Back to the topic: A220-500, I think a lot of work was already done by BBD a decade ago and that were almost all the development work would be done by Airbus Canada. Not high intensity, just modelling, CFD, production engineering, fatigue, tunneling, other groundwork. They won't sit on their hands & stop everything because of Corona. You can send the CS team home. They'll announce when the time is right, not before.

When it comes to producing a A225, BBD was sitting on its hands while it still had full control of the program, and Airbus has been sitting on its hands since it gained control of the program on July 1, 2018. The head of Airbus Canada said Airbus already has a full plate addressing cost and production ramp challenges it faces with the A220-100 and A220-300, and he said "now is not the time" for an A220-500 even before CV19 forced Airbus to cut production of its cash cow products by one third, furlough 10,000 workers and have layoffs at Airbus Mobile. It's pretty clear if it wasn't time for A225 before CV19, it's even further in the future since CV19.

Seven months ago in this very thread we had this post:

Revelation wrote:
The last input we had from Airbus on this topic was in January:

"It's very likely that… once the A220 has done the ramp up, is economically viable [and] then we can further invest, that this is going to happen," Airbus president of commercial aircraft Guillaume Faury tells reporters on 16 January. "Once this success is on track, it would be time for looking at what we do for the product.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 20-455067/

Our discussion at viewtopic.php?t=1413243 was interesting, with you ( viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1413243&start=50#p21023041 ) suggesting a 2024-5 time line.

Maybe it will happen if the production and supply chain progresses as hoped.

Clearly A220 cannot say it has done its ramp up and is economically viable. CV19 has pushed the entire industry to the edge of bankruptcy and the airliner order bubble has burst. I doubt if anything has changed Faury's thinking in favor of A220-500 since then. If it had yet to become commercially viable back then, it certainly hasn't now.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:51 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Things can change fast..

Yeah, there could be a second wave of coronavirus, etc...

Things change fast like 90% of the worldwide disappearing in a matter of weeks, but debt doesn’t go away as fast.

It will take time for airlines to be able to afford deliveries again, longer for them to place new orders and even longer before passenger operators launch new airplanes.

Worries about survival seem to impede consideration of concerns about dated portfolios, reduced margins and perspectives.
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AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:20 pm

https://twitter.com/rschuur_aero/status ... 99840?s=21

Ben Smith told an online event that his company is evaluating the A220, 321 and MAX for medium haul renewal. plans were put on hold when MAX was grounded.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-eye ... nt-happen/

CEO also seems to push for the A220-500. Says if that does not happen they may also consider the MAX. Although the 220-500 would be ideal
 
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:46 pm

I do not believe of 737Max for Air France.
Why not for KLM and Transavia + Transavia France.

But the A321neo for AF, yes, in order to replace older A321ceo.

However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network.
 
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:53 pm

nicode wrote:
I do not believe of 737Max for Air France.
Why not for KLM and Transavia + Transavia France.

However A321neo for AF, yes, in order to replace older A321ceo.

However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network.


With the way the French Government is restricting AF flights due to TGV, they may be better off focusing on longer European routes that require the A320 family.
 
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:07 pm

nicode wrote:
I do not believe of 737Max for Air France.
Why not for KLM and Transavia + Transavia France.

But the A321neo for AF, yes, in order to replace older A321ceo.

However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network.

I believe that’s who the MAXs are for primarily
 
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:08 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/rschuur_aero/status/1333419176065699840?s=21

Ben Smith told an online event that his company is evaluating the A220, 321 and MAX for medium haul renewal. plans were put on hold when MAX was grounded.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-eye ... nt-happen/

CEO also seems to push for the A220-500. Says if that does not happen they may also consider the MAX. Although the 220-500 would be ideal

The reality is that for 90%+ of A320CEO missions, the A220-500 would be a perfect replacement.

With current MAX pricing, every airline will look. If AF gets the A220-500, they stop looking. It would be blantent disregard of due diligence for any airline not to seriously bid the MAX if the 20% discounts are true:

https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

Interesting times ahead.

Lightsaber
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/rschuur_aero/status/1333419176065699840?s=21

Ben Smith told an online event that his company is evaluating the A220, 321 and MAX for medium haul renewal. plans were put on hold when MAX was grounded.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-eye ... nt-happen/

CEO also seems to push for the A220-500. Says if that does not happen they may also consider the MAX. Although the 220-500 would be ideal

The reality is that for 90%+ of A320CEO missions, the A220-500 would be a perfect replacement.

With current MAX pricing, every airline will look. If AF gets the A220-500, they stop looking. It would be blantent disregard of due diligence for any airline not to seriously bid the MAX if the 20% discounts are true:

https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

Interesting times ahead.

Lightsaber


Plus the added benefit of sending the fleet people off to Boeing first gives them the ability to then go to Airbus and give them the talk. The “we just got back from Boeing, and even though we’ve been a long time customer of yours, they’ve got a nice price...” talk.

Any airline considering a major order must do their due diligence. It’s like buying a car. Unless you’re damn sure, you don’t walk into the first dealer and tell them you want whatever they’ve got and you have cash.
 
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:34 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
nicode wrote:
I do not believe of 737Max for Air France.
Why not for KLM and Transavia + Transavia France.

However A321neo for AF, yes, in order to replace older A321ceo.

However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network.


With the way the French Government is restricting AF flights due to TGV, they may be better off focusing on longer European routes that require the A320 family.

I doubt there are any European routes the A225 can't do that the A320 can.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:26 pm

To think about it. A220-500 might push Boeing for creating NSA sooner. This would be bad for airbus who are running on cheap efficient updated old-gen aircraft platform with A320neos for 2020-2030 timeframe.

It might be better for Airbus to hold off A220-500 until Boeing decided to launch NSA to hinder Boeing sales. A220 already uses composite materials and next-gen engines, they wouldn't need to play catch up with MAX's replacement.

Once 2025-2030 comes by, Airbus could easily provided NEO version for A220 to compete with lower end of Boeing NSA.
 
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
nicode wrote:
I do not believe of 737Max for Air France.
Why not for KLM and Transavia + Transavia France.

But the A321neo for AF, yes, in order to replace older A321ceo.

However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network.

I believe that’s who the MAXs are for primarily


KL no doubt, they are going to be all Boeing. AF is gonna stick with the Airbuses
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:38 pm

A possible A225 is likely a minimum of 4-5 years away; perhaps even a decade away; and Airbus has yet to get the base A220 line up to speed and profitable yet.

The 737 Max's are available in a timely fashion - and without the concerns regarding when a new model will actually be introduced.

I just don't see Airbus deciding to commit the needed resources to a possible A225 at this time. They had previously announced that they needed years just to get the base A220 line stabilized and financially healthy 1st.

Have a great day,
 
iamlucky13
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Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:39 pm

nicode wrote:
However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network.


I had a mental error reading that.

However, it did not take me very long at all to conclude that Airbus was not partnering with Antonov on serial production of the world's largest cargo aircraft, and that the similarity between A225 and An-225 is another good reason to keep calling the former the CSeries! 8-)
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Back to the topic: A220-500, I think a lot of work was already done by BBD a decade ago and that were almost all the development work would be done by Airbus Canada. Not high intensity, just modelling, CFD, production engineering, fatigue, tunneling, other groundwork. They won't sit on their hands & stop everything because of Corona. You can send the CS team home. They'll announce when the time is right, not before.

When it comes to producing a A225, BBD was sitting on its hands while it still had full control of the program, and Airbus has been sitting on its hands since it gained control of the program on July 1, 2018. The head of Airbus Canada said Airbus already has a full plate addressing cost and production ramp challenges it faces with the A220-100 and A220-300, and he said "now is not the time" for an A220-500 even before CV19 forced Airbus to cut production of its cash cow products by one third, furlough 10,000 workers and have layoffs at Airbus Mobile. It's pretty clear if it wasn't time for A225 before CV19, it's even further in the future since CV19.

Seven months ago in this very thread we had this post:

Revelation wrote:
The last input we had from Airbus on this topic was in January:

"It's very likely that… once the A220 has done the ramp up, is economically viable [and] then we can further invest, that this is going to happen," Airbus president of commercial aircraft Guillaume Faury tells reporters on 16 January. "Once this success is on track, it would be time for looking at what we do for the product.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 20-455067/

Our discussion at viewtopic.php?t=1413243 was interesting, with you ( viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1413243&start=50#p21023041 ) suggesting a 2024-5 time line.

Maybe it will happen if the production and supply chain progresses as hoped.

Clearly A220 cannot say it has done its ramp up and is economically viable. CV19 has pushed the entire industry to the edge of bankruptcy and the airliner order bubble has burst. I doubt if anything has changed Faury's thinking in favor of A220-500 since then. If it had yet to become commercially viable back then, it certainly hasn't now.


I disagree, in the sense that A220 is an ideal airliner right now in the COVID environment. And I think COVID thins out a lot of routes for quite a long time. This means a number of airlines probably should avoid A32X fleets entirely and just use A22X fleets instead. Not every airline, but dozens of airlines are probably in this category.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:51 pm

I don't understand..Why wait for a A225 when they have the A320/21Neos to replace ageing fleet, like msot airbus operators do? Isn't that the purpose of the Neos, to replace the ceos with a more efficient and longer range plane of the same capacity?
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:44 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
I don't understand..Why wait for a A225 when they have the A320/21Neos to replace ageing fleet, like msot airbus operators do? Isn't that the purpose of the Neos, to replace the ceos with a more efficient and longer range plane of the same capacity?

Weight and subsystems. Since only engines and avionics were updated, the NEO is a half generation newer. The A220 has subsystems, even better predictive maintenance (some in NEO) and the weight advantage of engines sized for the thrust (extra weight for A321) and CFRP wing.

Airlines are saying they want better. I assume AF really likes the promised A220 performance.

There is a business case to replace A320CEOs with A223 (much lower cost per flight, sacrifice revenue or add flights). Well... A stretch has even better economics, but lousy short field performance (see initial A321, not the A321 it grew into).

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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:15 am

The A223s are to replace mostly the A319s and A318s capacity-wise... Shouldn't they wait and see how it really performs for the missions targeted before they go ga-ga on a future stretch? And if Airbus does go ahead with the A225, wouldn't they be sabotaging themselves in respect to NEO-sales?
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:35 am

Once you have a larger installed base of A220s, then commonality of the -500 with those becomes a marketing point.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:08 am

I suppose this allows them to shrink down to profitability. Having more smaller planes means more flexibility, I suspect that they will want to have as many mainline planes as possible to grow Transavia now the new deal is in place.
The huge backlog of A320neos also gives AF the luxury of time. Between that, the MAX issues that will very likely lead to discounts, it really is a buyers market. As long as the buyers still have money to spend that is.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:15 am

wjcandee wrote:
Once you have a larger installed base of A220s, then commonality of the -500 with those becomes a marketing point.


And when do you think AF is going to have a larger base of A220s than the ~115 A318-321 today? Even if their goal is 1:1 and no growth, when would they have ~60?
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:08 am

ewt340 wrote:
To think about it. A220-500 might push Boeing for creating NSA sooner. This would be bad for airbus who are running on cheap efficient updated old-gen aircraft platform with A320neos for 2020-2030 timeframe.

It might be better for Airbus to hold off A220-500 until Boeing decided to launch NSA to hinder Boeing sales.

Fully agree. If Airbus can have 50% of the market with good profitability they shouldn't do anything that may provoke a reaction.
Why is there no A320,5?
However the -500 would mostly compete with the A320, not the longer B737-8 MAX. So while a -500 may not provoke a reaction from Boeing, there is little reason for Airbus to offer the -500.


2175301 wrote:
I just don't see Airbus deciding to commit the needed resources to a possible A225 at this time. They had previously announced that they needed years just to get the base A220 line stabilized and financially healthy 1st.

Have a great day,

For A320 capacity 6 abreast and luggage in containers is good. Add the economy of scale the A320 has in production cost. If the -300 can't be sold with profit, what's the point of the -500?

wjcandee wrote:
Once you have a larger installed base of A220s, then commonality of the -500 with those becomes a marketing point.

Good point. For smaller airlines like Air Baltic the -500 may be needed.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:22 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Once you have a larger installed base of A220s, then commonality of the -500 with those becomes a marketing point.


And when do you think AF is going to have a larger base of A220s than the ~115 A318-321 today? Even if their goal is 1:1 and no growth, when would they have ~60?


Well, obviously that's not likely. And since you have seen my posts elsewhere, you probably don't normally think that I'm a complete idiot. (I hope.) :scratchchin:

I wasn't talking specifically about Air France; I was talking more about the question of Airbus cannibalizing the demand for the A320 by offering a larger version of the A220, which was a big part of the discussion of the posts immediately-preceding mine. It might have been clearer if I had quoted them.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:44 am

As a novice to airplane development and line up design IMO it might make sense to develop the A225 now in order for the eventual A320 replacement to be larger. While there is definitely competition between an A320 and a potential A225, this problem would be eventually solved when the A320 will eventually gets replaced. Eventually Airbus would end up with two separate NB type, a larger and a smaller one.

Furthermore I still think that "forcing" Boeing to develop a new NB sooner (and I still don't think that this is going to happen if Airbus announces the A225) might not be too bad as I think the NB market will be dominated by the company that can hold out longer and integrate even more innovations into their nextgen NB. I think given Airbus NB order book, Airbus would not necessarily need to respond immediately and could potentially hold out a little longer and then properly respond to Boeing's plans. And maybe the nextgen NB of Airbus will have more commonality with the A220 series in order for operators to make it easier to operate both, thereby offering family a plane to airlines that can has a seat range from 115 to around 250ish and can potentially operate shorter as well as longer routs (XLR range). An attractive package for airlines that do not wan't, need or can't operate WBs.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:04 am

As it stands, the so widely dreamed off A225 is not going anywhere. The A220 line is not profitable neither able to produce the current versions on a pace that would cater for its actual backlog.
When Boeing released the B787-10, it was indeed receiving Government support but those were times where airlines were ordering big and had a totally different forecast. Remember, those were the times when LHR was to be expanded and get a 3rd runway because its capacity was over the stretch.
Today, the bailouts offered to Air France and Airbus cater for a totally different reality where travel might (I say might... and am hopeful on this...) reach actual levels maybe in 2 -3 years time.
I actually do not remember the last time a big order for brand new aircrafts was made (orders - not MOUs...). I would have to search google for it.
Everyone speaks about the case for a new production line for the A225 instead of the A320 - how about a new one for the A223 then?
I see the A225 coming up when Airbus reviews the whole A320 family which is ageing. Then, you could see a MoM offering commonality all the way from todays A221 through, let's say an A227 (an A320 high density replacement) - if you think off. But those are way lost in the future nowadays.
We can change scenarios quickly but NOT that quickly...
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:26 am

I hope AF pulls the trigger on the MAX just so Airbus might finally feel compelled to go ahead with the 225. It's absolutely ridiculous that they have a next gen product that is easy to develop and refuse to offer it to customers. Goes to show how ridiculous the commercial airliner duopoly is. Imagine doing this in any other industry. In any other sector, Airbus would be ramping up the 225 and pressing their advantage.

It's particularly offensive to purposely sell less efficient aircraft in an era where everybody is concerned about climate change. It's almost like they want the sector to be heavily regulated by governments into cutting emissions.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:39 am

TObound wrote:
I hope AF pulls the trigger on the MAX just so Airbus might finally feel compelled to go ahead with the 225. It's absolutely ridiculous that they have a next gen product that is easy to develop and refuse to offer it to customers. Goes to show how ridiculous the commercial airliner duopoly is. Imagine doing this in any other industry. In any other sector, Airbus would be ramping up the 225 and pressing their advantage.

It's particularly offensive to purposely sell less efficient aircraft in an era where everybody is concerned about climate change. It's almost like they want the sector to be heavily regulated by governments into cutting emissions.

What in aviation is "easy to develop"? Even worse when considering a product that is still in negative cash flow mode for production, still requires more money for ramp up, one that Airbus had to put hundreds of millions of euro earlier than planned to buy out the failing partner, etc.

If all this was "easy" some other mega-corporation would have bought CS from BBD. As it was, BBD had to sell it for $1 to get rid of it.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:39 am

Asked this question once before. But would it be possible for Airbus to install the Airbus FBW system on the A22S aircraft? How would this program cost? Such a mod would significantly boost A220 chances in the marketplace.

keesje wrote:
Compare it to the 787-10, launched in 2013, while 787 production problems hadn't recovered, 787s weren't making any profit and the -9 hadn't even entered service.

The 787 Backlog was above 1000 and the -10 overlapped with the 777 line .

Still Boeing (and me) thought it was a good investment, because the successful, capable 777-200ER/LR offered too much capability but less efficiency at e.g TATL and intra Asia.

If Boeing had been savy at the stage, Airbus would now have a scary WB marketshare with the A350..


The A220-500 would enable some airlines looking for A320NEO sized aircraft to shift to the A220 keeping sales within the company. This will also free up slots on the 32S line for the higher yield A321 series aircraft and maybe even a potential A322LR - 3500nm/270 seats one class.

It will also raise the bar for Boeing with their NSA response.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:47 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Asked this question once before. But would it be possible for Airbus to install the Airbus FBW system on the A22S aircraft? How would this program cost? Such a mod would significantly boost A220 chances in the marketplace.

keesje wrote:
Compare it to the 787-10,...... response.


Introducing Airbus FBW on the A220 would probably mean a hefty, time consuming redesign on the A220, making it off standard with existing A220 customers.

Although the A220-300 and possible -500 verymuch overlap with the A319 and A320, for operators they are significant different. The A320 has thousands in the air and thousands on order, providing range, paylaod and container capability, existing competitive pilot and MRO infrastructure. For airlines that have ordered A220's already, it might be more attractive to order A220-500 iso A320s though. Because it probably will more efficient for the same seat count.

Image
keesje

I agree longer term A320 developments will probably be more in the more capacity-range than trying to cover the 150 seats segment. Few A319NEO on order and existing A319 fleets hardly ever have cargo loading systems.

The bigger more efficient XLR fuel system, new flaps and new beefed up 101t MTOW options provide a base for possible new variants. Among which might be a optimized 200 seater "A320 replacement" and stretched 250 seat people 3000NM range mover might be part.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:40 pm

Any stretched A225 would cost Airbus more to make than any A320 model, and something like a quarter of any profits go back to the other owner (Quebec Province). To say it is unlikely that Airbus would support this is an understatement. They have A320 production capacity they are not using vs. planned, and they keep all of the profits themselves (plus no debt payments at this point).

A bespoke A225 becomes less likely by the month, as it is just going to keep drawing closer and closer to EIS for any future Boeing (NSA) competitor, and likely will only be more expensive vs. launch prices on those. If the MAX is going to be replaced toward 2030 (likely the latest), then the window for this product line to build a healthy user base is essentially closed by around 2024 (Boeing would need to launch around 2025). An A225 development cycle (LOL, though the A220/C-series has never met a time goal), would be at least 24 months, and probably 36 for EIS.
 
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:21 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Any stretched A225 would cost Airbus more to make than any A320 model, and something like a quarter of any profits go back to the other owner (Quebec Province). To say it is unlikely that Airbus would support this is an understatement. They have A320 production capacity they are not using vs. planned, and they keep all of the profits themselves (plus no debt payments at this point).

A bespoke A225 becomes less likely by the month, as it is just going to keep drawing closer and closer to EIS for any future Boeing (NSA) competitor, and likely will only be more expensive vs. launch prices on those. If the MAX is going to be replaced toward 2030 (likely the latest), then the window for this product line to build a healthy user base is essentially closed by around 2024 (Boeing would need to launch around 2025). An A225 development cycle (LOL, though the A220/C-series has never met a time goal), would be at least 24 months, and probably 36 for EIS.


I think Airbus isn't in such a deeply bad shape. They "won" the NB battle and have 6000-7000 A220/320 in their backlog. They aren't reigned by aggressive stock holders demanding ROI within 2 yrs, not interested in anything else. In terms of competition, pushing Boeing into a room they don't want to be in, worked well with the A220/MAX-7, NEO/MAX, A35X/777X and A330NEO/787.

So they might as well try again on the A220-500. Pushing Boeing to show it's NSA cards. Study them, talk to airlines & respond 2 years later including lessons learned. A situation Boeing tries to avoid.

Media carefully avoids publishing the inevitable NB market share pie-chart, but soon the NEO backlog will be twice that of the MAX.
And deep down we know, that might as well be the case for margins (sales price-real total costs).

Image

https://venngage.net/p/77244/safety-in-the-kitchen

Maybe this is already happening behind closed doors, Steve UH says Boeing needs to one-up Airbus https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 60.article & Southwest probably flashed an amazing A220 LOI when visiting Boeing https://www.newsbreak.com/news/20885512 ... xt-new-jet
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:33 pm

keesje wrote:
I think Airbus isn't in such a deeply bad shape.

Thanks for the nice yet not particularly relevant A vs B summary given the biggest competitor for any A220 stretch would be other projects within Airbus, especially given the current fiscal crisis, and especially given the statement above that Airbus Canada needs to be self financing going forward which was in force even before the covid crisis struck.
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Airbus isn't in such a deeply bad shape.

Thanks for the nice yet not particularly relevant A vs B summary given the biggest competitor for any A220 stretch would be other projects within Airbus, especially given the current fiscal crisis, and especially given the statement above that Airbus Canada needs to be self financing going forward which was in force even before the covid crisis struck.


Sometimes people like $1 statements so much, they forget checking the facts or present only the half they like.

https://www.aero-mag.com/airbus-a220-pr ... between%20€,company's%20A220%20factory%20in%20Mirabel.&text=In%202019%20alone%2C%20Airbus%20delivered,ramp-up%20to%20be%20continued.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... llion/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1PA29H
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Revelation
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:36 pm

Would be helpful if you used the quote function to point out what parts of the linked articles you think are relevant..

keesje wrote:

Airbus will invest between €500 million and €1 billion this year (2020) in the A220 programme, Guillaume Faury has said. The comments from the company CEO were made last Thursday at the company’s A220 factory in Mirabel.

Of course, they've bought out BBD in 2020 and had to show up with a check at closing time...

keesje wrote:

Bombardier will receive $591 million, net of adjustments, for its stake in the A220 program, of which $531 million was paid at closing with $60 million to be paid in installments through 2021.

That ate up the lower bound of Faury's spending budget before anything else came into play...

keesje wrote:

The European planemaker said it would invest $300 million and create 400 jobs in the plant, to be built in the port of Mobile alongside an existing assembly line for its best-selling A320 passenger jet, which already employs 700 people.

Hurray, another plant to invest in at a site BBD never intended to operate at.

Another 2019 link to consider:

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-wont-be ... 0-for-now/

“It’s very likely that… once the A220 has done the ramp up, is economically viable [and] then we can further invest, that this (stretch) is going to happen, Once this success is on track, it would be time for looking at what we do for the product.” – Airbus president of commercial aircraft Guillaume Faury back in January 2019.

Seems like none of these pre-conditions have been met, and CV19 pretty much guarantees the timeline is even further out now than it was in 2019.

It's nice to hear AF make happy noises, but unless they can underwrite the stretch effort I doubt we'll see it any time soon.

At one point people thought A380 would be stretched too, maybe we better wait till the eggs hatch before we count the chicks...
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:31 pm

I think for a project like A220-500 from launch to EIS of the first 10, will easily take 4-5 years, 2025. But if you are careful, focus on COVID-19 implications, on short term cost reductions and cash management, maintaining share holder value, engage with customers too fully understand what adds value to the market, take care to not rush the process, optimize your supply chain, ensure aftermarket profit sharing, you easily can end up 2-3 years too late. So get commitments for 150 A220-500's from AF, DL, Air Canada, United, leasing companies & get it on. Who can reliably forecast 2025 anyway? Maybe many CSeries designers left / retired at Airbus Canada by then. Sometime carefulness is mixed up with indecision.

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texl1649
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Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Airbus isn't in such a deeply bad shape.

Thanks for the nice yet not particularly relevant A vs B summary given the biggest competitor for any A220 stretch would be other projects within Airbus, especially given the current fiscal crisis, and especially given the statement above that Airbus Canada needs to be self financing going forward which was in force even before the covid crisis struck.


Exactly. Without even involving Boeing, Airbus, pre Covid, had a goal to double commercial aircraft margins. That’s not something...an A220 derivative is going to help (which was my whole point). More A32x sales will, perhaps, if they don’t in fact wind up having to give too much ASP due to...Boeing price pressures the next 8 years.

The A32x backlog is unwieldy but frankly, if it was a problem vs. a feature, they’d...close the A220 line in Alabama and expand the A32x line located a couple hundred yards away. If suppliers can in fact support it and customers want 70+ A32x per month, that is the route to greater margins (and market share). It might even increase profits on A220 sales if they’re not shipping them piecemeal by rail etc. for assembly in Mobile.
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