Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14183
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:10 am

Maybe Airbus has a long term strategy. Short term profit maximalisation isn't the only goal. Slashing costs, selling off assetts, pushing out debt, pulling forward income, pressuring the government for tax cuts, certification streamlining, draining the supply chain, pushing out investment, facelifting cash cows, rationalizing away innovation. All boosting free cash flow and margin. But longer term, it tends to come back to you.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 25739
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:59 am

keesje wrote:
Maybe Airbus has a long term strategy. Short term profit maximalisation isn't the only goal. Slashing costs, selling off assetts, pushing out debt, pulling forward income, pressuring the government for tax cuts, certification streamlining, draining the supply chain, pushing out investment, facelifting cash cows, rationalizing away innovation. All boosting free cash flow and margin. But longer term, it tends to come back to you.

Relevance?

Seems like you want to talk about everything except CEO Faury saying even before covid and even before their need to buy out BBD earlier than planned that a stretch could only could happen "once the A220 has done the ramp up, is economically viable [and] then we can further invest".

Sounds like CEO Faury told us exatly what Airbus's long term A220 strategy is, or what it was before covid struck...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:14 am

There are two interesting points to consider.
1. A220 partnership entity has to fund itself starting in 2020.
2. A220 program loses money until 2025 (see my previous comment)

One can easily conclude that a huge undertaking like the stretch of the A220-300 will have to be funded by Airbus Canada.
Thus it is unlikely the stretch of A220-300 would be offered before 2025.

It could be launched if someone decides to inject some cash.
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1824
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:00 pm

VV wrote:
There are two interesting points to consider.
1. A220 partnership entity has to fund itself starting in 2020.
2. A220 program loses money until 2025 (see my previous comment)

One can easily conclude that a huge undertaking like the stretch of the A220-300 will have to be funded by Airbus Canada.
Thus it is unlikely the stretch of A220-300 would be offered before 2025.

Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2594
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:18 pm

Something nobody is mentioning is that the A220-300 is the base model, and the A220-100 is a shrink. Also the -500 was nearly complete on paper / in CAD before Airbus took over.
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:26 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Something nobody is mentioning is that the A220-300 is the base model, and the A220-100 is a shrink. Also the -500 was nearly complete on paper / in CAD before Airbus took over.


I am not sure about it, although I cannot go into specifics.
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:16 pm

frigatebird wrote:
VV wrote:
There are two interesting points to consider.
1. A220 partnership entity has to fund itself starting in 2020.
2. A220 program loses money until 2025 (see my previous comment)

One can easily conclude that a huge undertaking like the stretch of the A220-300 will have to be funded by Airbus Canada.
Thus it is unlikely the stretch of A220-300 would be offered before 2025.

Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


The report about possible AF order for 737 MAX is very confusing.

The most likely AF order if for A320neo family with CFM Leap if it is not done already. Most probably A321neo.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 324
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:35 pm

frigatebird wrote:
VV wrote:
There are two interesting points to consider.
1. A220 partnership entity has to fund itself starting in 2020.
2. A220 program loses money until 2025 (see my previous comment)

One can easily conclude that a huge undertaking like the stretch of the A220-300 will have to be funded by Airbus Canada.
Thus it is unlikely the stretch of A220-300 would be offered before 2025.

Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


Does AF have the clout to push Airbus into developing the A225? Just like AA pushed Boeing into developing the MAX...
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14183
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:13 pm

AF has 60 A220 options on top of the order for 60. For KLM A220-300+ -500s seems a good fit. Agree though there will new A321s anyway.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:08 pm

JonesNL wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
VV wrote:
There are two interesting points to consider.
1. A220 partnership entity has to fund itself starting in 2020.
2. A220 program loses money until 2025 (see my previous comment)

One can easily conclude that a huge undertaking like the stretch of the A220-300 will have to be funded by Airbus Canada.
Thus it is unlikely the stretch of A220-300 would be offered before 2025.

Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


Does AF have the clout to push Airbus into developing the A225? Just like AA pushed Boeing into developing the MAX...


It is more than pushing the development of the stretch of A220-300. It is also about who will fund the development.

If Air France says, "I order 200 of them AND with 15% of initial pre-delivery installment." perhaps Airbus would be willing to do it.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2586
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:36 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
Let’s forget about the narrow body ULD containers. The A320/21 ULD drive system was a headache and those containers are easily damaged and costly to repair, and added extra weight to the aircraft. Depending on the size of the bags, you may be able to pack 8-12 bags in each container. You can pack more and save on cost by simply purchasing extended reach belt loaders like UA did and packing that plane by hand.


You are mistaken, an LD3-45 which is used on Airbus 320 family aircraft can absolutely hold more than 8-12 bags. You're looking at approximately somewhere in the 30-40 neighborhood.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:17 pm

frigatebird wrote:
KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.

KL just got new seats for their remaining 737's. Looks like they will stay for some time.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:19 pm

keesje wrote:
AF has 60 A220 options on top of the order for 60. For KLM A220-300+ -500s seems a good fit. .

But KL got the E195-E2.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14183
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:32 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
keesje wrote:
AF has 60 A220 options on top of the order for 60. For KLM A220-300+ -500s seems a good fit. .

But KL got the E195-E2.


Both A220-300 and possible -500 would be significant bigger than a E195-E2. Not 737 replacements.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
ADent
Posts: 1178
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 12:11 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:47 pm

Not going to happen until the production rate is up. This is key to generate cash/profits.

I guess it could happen with lots of firm orders with deposits (what airline is going to do that for a couple of years?)

Is AF going to buy 737s instead if A220-500s? E2-199s? I don’t think so, so not much incentive for Airbus to move quickly.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:52 pm

keesje wrote:
Both A220-300 and possible -500 would be significant bigger than a E195-E2. Not 737 replacements.

I wonder if the difference in seats between E195-E2 (132) and a 220-300 (145?) would be significant enough to warrant a different type. A -500 maybe.
Some of the first 195's will replace 737-700's coming off lease. Post COVID plans have been changed. Depending on how things progress they can replace 737's or E190's as some examples of both types come off lease in 2021 and 2022.
Last edited by inkjet7 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 25739
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:00 pm

keesje wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
keesje wrote:
AF has 60 A220 options on top of the order for 60. For KLM A220-300+ -500s seems a good fit. .

But KL got the E195-E2.

Both A220-300 and possible -500 would be significant bigger than a E195-E2.

So would a MAX-7 be, and it would have fleet commonality advantages with KL's 52 737s.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
texl1649
Posts: 1702
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:27 pm

VV wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


Does AF have the clout to push Airbus into developing the A225? Just like AA pushed Boeing into developing the MAX...


It is more than pushing the development of the stretch of A220-300. It is also about who will fund the development.

If Air France says, "I order 200 of them AND with 15% of initial pre-delivery installment." perhaps Airbus would be willing to do it.


Not likely. Airbus doesn't care to lose margin, and also AF is not about to order 200 new narrowbody aircraft just because they like the non French A220. Finally, Airbus has shown zero intent to develop the aircraft further in...France, as you know. Airbus Canada doesn't have the money to invest, even with such a theoretical down payment (from anyone), in both the production facility expansion that would be needed, and also the new model itself.

If it does, it will be after Airbus spins off Airbus Canada, somewhere toward 2030-35 (but keeps Mobile). Maybe then Air Canada and perhaps another carrier could spur the new entity to do it.
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:49 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
Let’s forget about the narrow body ULD containers. The A320/21 ULD drive system was a headache and those containers are easily damaged and costly to repair, and added extra weight to the aircraft. Depending on the size of the bags, you may be able to pack 8-12 bags in each container. You can pack more and save on cost by simply purchasing extended reach belt loaders like UA did and packing that plane by hand.


You are mistaken, an LD3-45 which is used on Airbus 320 family aircraft can absolutely hold more than 8-12 bags. You're looking at approximately somewhere in the 30-40 neighborhood.


I’m not mistaken. I use to load the containerized Air Canada A321’s at JFK for the YVR and YYC flights. I would love to see someone place 30-40 bags inside that small container. Larger LD-2’s can’t even hold that much especially if you have a larger number of heavy tagged bags.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 324
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:28 am

VV wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


Does AF have the clout to push Airbus into developing the A225? Just like AA pushed Boeing into developing the MAX...


It is more than pushing the development of the stretch of A220-300. It is also about who will fund the development.

If Air France says, "I order 200 of them AND with 15% of initial pre-delivery installment." perhaps Airbus would be willing to do it.

Not sure if there is an airline at the moment with enough funds to deposit 15% of an 200 birds order. Let alone AF, but I do agree; an big order with cash payment might move cash strapped Airbus. Also, it would guarantee two years of Maximum production at Quebec...
 
opticalilyushin
Posts: 839
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:35 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:03 am

JFKalumni wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
Let’s forget about the narrow body ULD containers. The A320/21 ULD drive system was a headache and those containers are easily damaged and costly to repair, and added extra weight to the aircraft. Depending on the size of the bags, you may be able to pack 8-12 bags in each container. You can pack more and save on cost by simply purchasing extended reach belt loaders like UA did and packing that plane by hand.


You are mistaken, an LD3-45 which is used on Airbus 320 family aircraft can absolutely hold more than 8-12 bags. You're looking at approximately somewhere in the 30-40 neighborhood.


I’m not mistaken. I use to load the containerized Air Canada A321’s at JFK for the YVR and YYC flights. I would love to see someone place 30-40 bags inside that small container. Larger LD-2’s can’t even hold that much especially if you have a larger number of heavy tagged bags.


I agree with INGINITI329, and i load control and dispatch containerised A320s every day. 30-40 is the norm.. it would be pretty unusual to bulk out with any less than that, short of transporting kit bags for a sports team, bicycles etc. If you could only fit 12 in a bin x 9 or 10 bins you'd have a serious problem on a full A321!
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1824
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:00 am

inkjet7 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.

KL just got new seats for their remaining 737's. Looks like they will stay for some time.


Oh yes, they won't disappear overnight. The newest 737NG's are leased until 2027. Depending on how quick Boeing can deliver, maybe some of the oldest 737NG's can be phased out before the new seats are installed ;)

Sometimes aircraft are retired while new seats have been installed only 2-3 years before, like some of KL's 744 with new WBC seats, and DL and SQ 77E's with new Y seats. Does anyone know if slightly used seats are sometimes recycled into new aircraft?

keesje wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
keesje wrote:
AF has 60 A220 options on top of the order for 60. For KLM A220-300+ -500s seems a good fit. .

But KL got the E195-E2.


Both A220-300 and possible -500 would be significant bigger than a E195-E2. Not 737 replacements.


As Inkjet7 points out, the A223 is not significantly larger than an E2-195. And the A220-500 does not exist.
If Airbus wants to supply aircraft to KL, their only chance IMO is to make an A32x Neo offer even KL cannot resist.
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
LifelinerOne
Posts: 1626
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:30 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:46 am

[quote="frigatebird] "If Airbus wants to supply aircraft to KL, their only chance IMO is to make an A32x Neo offer even KL cannot resist.[/quote]

The problem with this is, is that KLM isn't going to order anything. Neither does Air France or Transavia. The order for the replacement of their A320s, A321s and B737s will be a group order. This has been communicated by Ben Smith. It could still end up being a split between manufacturers, but it could also be a winner takes all. We don't know, but I expect hard negotiations.

Pre-COVID I assumed a split with KLM and Transavia moving to the MAX and Air France sticking with Airbus. But, post COVID with both the airlines and the manufacturers under stress, this could go either way. All bets are off.

Cheers! :wave:
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:56 am

opticalilyushin wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:

You are mistaken, an LD3-45 which is used on Airbus 320 family aircraft can absolutely hold more than 8-12 bags. You're looking at approximately somewhere in the 30-40 neighborhood.


I’m not mistaken. I use to load the containerized Air Canada A321’s at JFK for the YVR and YYC flights. I would love to see someone place 30-40 bags inside that small container. Larger LD-2’s can’t even hold that much especially if you have a larger number of heavy tagged bags.


I agree with INGINITI329, and i load control and dispatch containerised A320s every day. 30-40 is the norm.. it would be pretty unusual to bulk out with any less than that, short of transporting kit bags for a sports team, bicycles etc. If you could only fit 12 in a bin x 9 or 10 bins you'd have a serious problem on a full A321!


We always had issues with those small containers. Two or three large overstuffed bags were enough to take a good portion of the container space. Not to mention the 4 carts of skiing and snowboarding equipment that needed to be loaded in the manual pit because of its large size. Any ULD container that becomes damaged will cause an expensive repair bill. That whole system is nothing but a headache, an expensive headache.
 
CRJockey
Posts: 234
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:54 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:38 am

JFKalumni wrote:
opticalilyushin wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:

I’m not mistaken. I use to load the containerized Air Canada A321’s at JFK for the YVR and YYC flights. I would love to see someone place 30-40 bags inside that small container. Larger LD-2’s can’t even hold that much especially if you have a larger number of heavy tagged bags.


I agree with INGINITI329, and i load control and dispatch containerised A320s every day. 30-40 is the norm.. it would be pretty unusual to bulk out with any less than that, short of transporting kit bags for a sports team, bicycles etc. If you could only fit 12 in a bin x 9 or 10 bins you'd have a serious problem on a full A321!


We always had issues with those small containers. Two or three large overstuffed bags were enough to take a good portion of the container space. Not to mention the 4 carts of skiing and snowboarding equipment that needed to be loaded in the manual pit because of its large size. Any ULD container that becomes damaged will cause an expensive repair bill. That whole system is nothing but a headache, an expensive headache.


I agree with you, it IS a hassle and an expensive one. But it seems that bulk loading is even MORE of a hassle and even MORE expensive, otherwise airlines wouldn't have switched their operation to containers if the planes can take the cans... :-)
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:55 am

CRJockey wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
opticalilyushin wrote:

I agree with INGINITI329, and i load control and dispatch containerised A320s every day. 30-40 is the norm.. it would be pretty unusual to bulk out with any less than that, short of transporting kit bags for a sports team, bicycles etc. If you could only fit 12 in a bin x 9 or 10 bins you'd have a serious problem on a full A321!


We always had issues with those small containers. Two or three large overstuffed bags were enough to take a good portion of the container space. Not to mention the 4 carts of skiing and snowboarding equipment that needed to be loaded in the manual pit because of its large size. Any ULD container that becomes damaged will cause an expensive repair bill. That whole system is nothing but a headache, an expensive headache.


I agree with you, it IS a hassle and an expensive one. But it seems that bulk loading is even MORE of a hassle and even MORE expensive, otherwise airlines wouldn't have switched their operation to containers if the planes can take the cans... :-)


We have been doing fine with the extended reach beltloaders. Only problem, these new units cannot reach the bulkhead of the max-9.

Anybody who works the ramp knows just how easily ULD equipment can become damaged.
 
CRJockey
Posts: 234
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:54 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:34 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
CRJockey wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:

We always had issues with those small containers. Two or three large overstuffed bags were enough to take a good portion of the container space. Not to mention the 4 carts of skiing and snowboarding equipment that needed to be loaded in the manual pit because of its large size. Any ULD container that becomes damaged will cause an expensive repair bill. That whole system is nothing but a headache, an expensive headache.


I agree with you, it IS a hassle and an expensive one. But it seems that bulk loading is even MORE of a hassle and even MORE expensive, otherwise airlines wouldn't have switched their operation to containers if the planes can take the cans... :-)


We have been doing fine with the extended reach beltloaders. Only problem, these new units cannot reach the bulkhead of the max-9.

Anybody who works the ramp knows just how easily ULD equipment can become damaged.


You personally and your colleagues might have been doing fine. But, with all due respect, you are surely not the ones having the oversight of total process cost of bulk vs. container loading. And the fact that airlines largely have chosen containerised baggage if the plane allows, leads me to believe this is the more cost efficient solution. All ULD purchasing and service / repair cost included, of course, as airlines are not sufficiently inept to forget about such cost.
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1824
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:58 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
[quote="frigatebird] "If Airbus wants to supply aircraft to KL, their only chance IMO is to make an A32x Neo offer even KL cannot resist.[/quote]

The problem with this is, is that KLM isn't going to order anything. Neither does Air France or Transavia. The order for the replacement of their A320s, A321s and B737s will be a group order. This has been communicated by Ben Smith. It could still end up being a split between manufacturers, but it could also be a winner takes all. We don't know, but I expect hard negotiations.

Pre-COVID I assumed a split with KLM and Transavia moving to the MAX and Air France sticking with Airbus. But, post COVID with both the airlines and the manufacturers under stress, this could go either way. All bets are off.

Cheers! :wave:[/quote][/quote]

Oh definitely, I'm aware it will be a group decision. KL won't order it completely independent (although the E2-195 seemed a KLM only action). To make it more clear: if Airbus makes the AF/KL group an offer which makes is not only interesting for AF but also good enough for KL to transition from 737s to the A32x, then we could see Airbus back in the KL fleet. Although it has to be a really, really good offer to undercut the 737MAX pricing and availability.
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
TObound
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
TObound wrote:
I hope AF pulls the trigger on the MAX just so Airbus might finally feel compelled to go ahead with the 225. It's absolutely ridiculous that they have a next gen product that is easy to develop and refuse to offer it to customers. Goes to show how ridiculous the commercial airliner duopoly is. Imagine doing this in any other industry. In any other sector, Airbus would be ramping up the 225 and pressing their advantage.

It's particularly offensive to purposely sell less efficient aircraft in an era where everybody is concerned about climate change. It's almost like they want the sector to be heavily regulated by governments into cutting emissions.

What in aviation is "easy to develop"? Even worse when considering a product that is still in negative cash flow mode for production, still requires more money for ramp up, one that Airbus had to put hundreds of millions of euro earlier than planned to buy out the failing partner, etc.

If all this was "easy" some other mega-corporation would have bought CS from BBD. As it was, BBD had to sell it for $1 to get rid of it.


You're conflating a whole bunch of things here.

Let's start with why BBD had to sell the program for a dollar. Goes back to what I said about the duopoly. You now have an industry where innovation and a better product literally can't win because better capitalized competitors can simply dump their wares to undercut you. In other sectors, this kind of behaviour would attract anti-trust investigations. But not in commercial aviation....where holding back innovation and putting lipstick on a pig is now the norm.

Next, on "easy to develop". I don't see what's difficult here. It's orders of magnitude easier to develop a stretch on an airframe already designed to be stretched, than a new model. The discussion on finance is entirely an artificial construct. Airbus Canada can't make money if it can't ramp. And it can't pay for the stretch if it can't make money. But that is an imposed constraint by Airbus HQ. If Boeing launched the NSA tomorrow, do you think Airbus would insist that the A220 continue being treated like the ugly step child? Or would they suddenly find the funds for the stretch and the ramp?

Like I've said this is particularly egregious in an era where climate change is a massive concern and there's tremendous pressure on aviation. Maybe the activists bed to start pressuring governments more to force companies like Airbus to actually offer products which cut emissions.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 932
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:08 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Something nobody is mentioning is that the A220-300 is the base model, and the A220-100 is a shrink. Also the -500 was nearly complete on paper / in CAD before Airbus took over.


Exactly, I don't understand the harangue about A220-500 development cost. Those costs are next to nothing, when compared to the potential revenue of a new, clean-sheet aircraft family in the A318/A319/A320 segment.

If Airbus wants to make the most money, they need to sell the best airplane families at good prices.
 
TObound
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:13 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Something nobody is mentioning is that the A220-300 is the base model, and the A220-100 is a shrink. Also the -500 was nearly complete on paper / in CAD before Airbus took over.


Exactly, I don't understand the harangue about A220-500 development cost. Those costs are next to nothing, when compared to the potential revenue of a new, clean-sheet aircraft family in the A318/A319/A320 segment.

If Airbus wants to make the most money, they need to sell the best airplane families at good prices.


There are development costs. Nowhere near as high as some are portraying. Several hundred million. Not some billion euro project. And the whole line would get a boost in profitability as every delivery slot would now be worth more. But building the 225 would also mean Airbus has to invest in the 320.5 and 322 for differentiation. One would think it might be a good time to do that while demand is down. But short term profits....
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 25739
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:58 pm

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What in aviation is "easy to develop"? Even worse when considering a product that is still in negative cash flow mode for production, still requires more money for ramp up, one that Airbus had to put hundreds of millions of euro earlier than planned to buy out the failing partner, etc.

If all this was "easy" some other mega-corporation would have bought CS from BBD. As it was, BBD had to sell it for $1 to get rid of it.

You're conflating a whole bunch of things here.

Let's start with why BBD had to sell the program for a dollar. Goes back to what I said about the duopoly. You now have an industry where innovation and a better product literally can't win because better capitalized competitors can simply dump their wares to undercut you. In other sectors, this kind of behaviour would attract anti-trust investigations. But not in commercial aviation....where holding back innovation and putting lipstick on a pig is now the norm.

Right, life ain't fair, capitalism is evil, competitors should be kind to new entrants because 'innovation'. What were you saying about conflation? And what are you saying that refutes my point that nothing in this business is easy? You're just giving one more reason why it is hard. Honestly, I can't think of too many businesses where established powerhouses won't do their best to squeeze out a new entrant.

TObound wrote:
Next, on "easy to develop". I don't see what's difficult here. It's orders of magnitude easier to develop a stretch on an airframe already designed to be stretched, than a new model. The discussion on finance is entirely an artificial construct. Airbus Canada can't make money if it can't ramp. And it can't pay for the stretch if it can't make money. But that is an imposed constraint by Airbus HQ. If Boeing launched the NSA tomorrow, do you think Airbus would insist that the A220 continue being treated like the ugly step child? Or would they suddenly find the funds for the stretch and the ramp?

Speaking of artificial constructs, adding a room onto a house is easier than building a house from scratch on a green field site, but adding a room ain't cheap, especially when you have a big loan against the house with no equity to borrow against, you have unemployed family members, and the overall economy is crap. Your can try to hit up other family members, but they aren't doing particularly well due to the bad economy, and the rich step-uncle who loaned you money for the house just said he'll wait till your financial house is in order before he'll give you more money. I don't think talking about how beautiful your babies are will hold much sway, their kids need new shoes too.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
TObound
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:57 am

Revelation wrote:

Right, life ain't fair, capitalism is evil, competitors should be kind to new entrants because 'innovation'. What were you saying about conflation? And what are you saying that refutes my point that nothing in this business is easy? You're just giving one more reason why it is hard. Honestly, I can't think of too many businesses where established powerhouses won't do their best to squeeze out a new entrant.


Talk about a strawman. I never said capitalism was evil.

I'm fairly sure that when Adam Smith was first theorizing capitalism, he wasn't envisioning government protected oligopolies complete with made up rules on which versions of state aid count and which don't.

Revelation wrote:
TObound wrote:
Next, on "easy to develop". I don't see what's difficult here. It's orders of magnitude easier to develop a stretch on an airframe already designed to be stretched, than a new model. The discussion on finance is entirely an artificial construct. Airbus Canada can't make money if it can't ramp. And it can't pay for the stretch if it can't make money. But that is an imposed constraint by Airbus HQ. If Boeing launched the NSA tomorrow, do you think Airbus would insist that the A220 continue being treated like the ugly step child? Or would they suddenly find the funds for the stretch and the ramp?

Speaking of artificial constructs, adding a room onto a house is easier than building a house from scratch on a green field site, but adding a room ain't cheap, especially when you have a big loan against the house with no equity to borrow against, you have unemployed family members, and the overall economy is crap. Your can try to hit up other family members, but they aren't doing particularly well due to the bad economy, and the rich step-uncle who loaned you money for the house just said he'll wait till your financial house is in order before he'll give you more money. I don't think talking about how beautiful your babies are will hold much sway, their kids need new shoes too.


Does this twisted logic only apply to the A220 or the entire Airbus lineup? Would they have withheld investment in the A350 and not developed the stretch before the 358 and 359 were profitable and paid off all development costs?

Also, this is now a separate discussion. Your original point was questioning whether this was easy to develop. At least we've settled that one.
 
2175301
Posts: 2052
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:32 am

The very real difficulty with the A220 is that I'm fairly sure that Airbus feels that they paid at least a $Billion more than they should have for it - now that they really understand what is needed for ramp-up, profitability, and developing the future A225.

I suspect that is why Boeing was not interested either.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2709
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:25 am

2175301 wrote:
The very real difficulty with the A220 is that I'm fairly sure that Airbus feels that they paid at least a $Billion more than they should have for it - now that they really understand what is needed for ramp-up, profitability, and developing the future A225.

I suspect that is why Boeing was not interested either.

At the 1$ takeover Bombardier took the obligation to finance losses for some more time.
How much did Airbus spend so far for the C- Series, including what they recently spent to take over Bombardier's stake?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:17 pm

Sokes wrote:
2175301 wrote:
The very real difficulty with the A220 is that I'm fairly sure that Airbus feels that they paid at least a $Billion more than they should have for it - now that they really understand what is needed for ramp-up, profitability, and developing the future A225.

I suspect that is why Boeing was not interested either.

At the 1$ takeover Bombardier took the obligation to finance losses for some more time.
How much did Airbus spend so far for the C- Series, including what they recently spent to take over Bombardier's stake?


It is more than half a billion US dollars.

You want source? No I do not have one. You need to look for the information and make the addition.

The point is that as Airbus stated in February 2020, Airbus Canada has to finance itself and it would lose money until 2025.

From that date, Airbus (the mother company) does not spend cash for the Limited Partnership. However it is now liable on a huge part of the debts contracted by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership because Airbus provided guarantees along with the government of Québec.

I hope I have been clear enough.
 
mig17
Posts: 360
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:39 pm

VV wrote:
Sokes wrote:
2175301 wrote:
The very real difficulty with the A220 is that I'm fairly sure that Airbus feels that they paid at least a $Billion more than they should have for it - now that they really understand what is needed for ramp-up, profitability, and developing the future A225.

I suspect that is why Boeing was not interested either.

At the 1$ takeover Bombardier took the obligation to finance losses for some more time.
How much did Airbus spend so far for the C- Series, including what they recently spent to take over Bombardier's stake?


It is more than half a billion US dollars.

You want source? No I do not have one. You need to look for the information and make the addition.

The point is that as Airbus stated in February 2020, Airbus Canada has to finance itself and it would lose money until 2025.

From that date, Airbus (the mother company) does not spend cash for the Limited Partnership. However it is now liable on a huge part of the debts contracted by Airbus Canada Limited Partnership because Airbus provided guarantees along with the government of Québec.

I hope I have been clear enough.

And? A half a billion or a billion for 2 in service design and a starting factory line is far less than the cost already invested in the NEO for exemple. And even more less than what the MAX has cost Boeing ...
Yes Airbus will have to invest way more in the programme to really make it work, but it seems worth it concidering the A220 potential.
The A220-500, they are working on it, at least on early stages of it and they must have teased it to customers, or Air France would not speak about it like it does.
The only dilema for Airbus is when to launch it in the current environnement considering it will hurt not only the MAX but also some NEO salles.
A30B IW/TG, A313 EK, A318/9/20/1 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A35K QR, A388 AF, AT72 A5/TX, B722 AT, B734/8 UX/SK/TO/SS, B742/3/4 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, B762 UA, B77E/W AF/QR, C-150/72, CRJ1/7/X A5, E145/70/90 A5/WF, DH8D WF, PC-6.
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:58 pm

mig17 wrote:
...
And? A half a billion or a billion for 2 in service design and a starting factory line is far less than the cost already invested in the NEO for exemple. And even more less than what the MAX has cost Boeing ...
Yes Airbus will have to invest way more in the programme to really make it work, but it seems worth it concidering the A220 potential.
The A220-500, they are working on it, at least on early stages of it and they must have teased it to customers, or Air France would not speak about it like it does.
The only dilema for Airbus is when to launch it in the current environnement considering it will hurt not only the MAX but also some NEO salles.


Well, one billion for a program that was supposed to be "completed" is awfully expensive, especially when it is still draining money until 2025.

The only issue is that no one seems to know as when it will start making money because of this horrible crisis.

I wrote some time ago somewhere else that there is little possibility to develop a synergy between the A320 family and the A220 family. Basically I am just saying that the two aircraft will remain as very distinct aircraft families.

The A220-500? It is a very hypothetical aircraft that might never be developed unless the A220-300 issues are cleared and all the promised features are completed.

Will a stretch of the A220-300 happen in the next five years? It is very unlikely, but you never know.
 
Noshow
Posts: 2185
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:07 pm

I see the A220 as an orphan. Before it gets stretched the A320-family will get some follow on design from scratch. The A220, while very modern as of today, is the short term answer to cover the needs of 737-700 operators looking for something new but it is something separate from A320, A330 and A350.
And is AF in a position to spend big dollars for new narrow bodies at this time?

On the other hand, in todays covid and post covid market the A220 with its combination of small size at good costs plus big range and high comfort might turn into some very unique tool creating its own market segment. Just look at Air Baltic and what routes and ranges they cover with it.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2709
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:34 pm

How many A319 and B737-700 were in operation before Covid19?
The A319 has scrap value as an A320 is hardly more expensive to operate.
So the operating cost advantage of an A220 has to compensate nearly the full capital cost of it. Add risk. I assume the derated engines on an A319 are very cheap to maintain.

In 10 years availability of 130 seater may be different. In which case there is really no hurry for Airbus to make an extra effort now.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
VV
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:36 pm

If you really want to know the chances the A220 will grow much further under Airbus then you should try to compare the supplier list of the A220 and A320.

Once you have done that comparison, please come back here and express your conclusion.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2709
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:42 pm

Found something:
A dvbbank pdf says in Sept 17 around 1300 A319 and 1000 B737-700 were in service.
If we deduct 20% around 1800 frames left.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 25739
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:21 pm

TObound wrote:
Does this twisted logic only apply to the A220 or the entire Airbus lineup? Would they have withheld investment in the A350 and not developed the stretch before the 358 and 359 were profitable and paid off all development costs?

Twisted? The Airbus CEO told us exactly what the A220 strategy was pre-covid: "once the A220 has done the ramp up, is economically viable [and] then we can further invest", ref #248 above. Now, covid has occurred and its impact to Airbus and to its subsidiary needs to be factored into things. I was just re-stating things in terms I hoped others could take in. It seems the horse was led to the water but refused to drink.

Your original point was questioning whether this was easy to develop. At least we've settled that one.

Maybe in your mind. I'm still sticking with nothing is easy in aviation. A stretch is going to be a significant effort in development, manufacture, test and certification. Easier than a clean sheet, but not easy.

If it was easy, CEO Faury would not be so circumspect with regard to making the investment.

The A350 is a different product in a different market segment with different levels of competition and different profit potential. With regard to this conversation, it's a red herring.

Sokes wrote:
2175301 wrote:
The very real difficulty with the A220 is that I'm fairly sure that Airbus feels that they paid at least a $Billion more than they should have for it - now that they really understand what is needed for ramp-up, profitability, and developing the future A225.

I suspect that is why Boeing was not interested either.

At the 1$ takeover Bombardier took the obligation to finance losses for some more time.
How much did Airbus spend so far for the C- Series, including what they recently spent to take over Bombardier's stake?

One quote:

Bombardier will receive $591 million, net of adjustments, for its stake in the A220 program, of which $531 million was paid at closing with $60 million to be paid in installments through 2021. Bombardier also said the deal will allow it avoid paying roughly $700 million it would have been on the hook for to fund an expansion of production of the 100- to 150-seat single aisle plane.

Ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarc ... 1-million/

So they paid $1 for 50.01% and now another $591M in cash to BBD and took on $700M in obligations that BBD had been assuming so almost $1.3B to get another 25% ownership.

We probably should not forget that when BBD put their remaining shares up for sale they pointed out:

In the report, Bombardier remarked that while the A220 program “continues to win in the marketplace and demonstrate its value to airlines,” the Airbus Canada Limited Partnership (ACLP) – the name of its joint program with Airbus – had made the call for additional cash investments to support production ramp-up, in turn extending the timeline for the program to break even and potentially generating a lower profit-margin over the life of the partnership.

Ref: https://www.skiesmag.com/news/bombardie ... 0-program/

So the requested spending was going beyond the agreed numbers and putting pressure on ROI.

2175301 wrote:
The very real difficulty with the A220 is that I'm fairly sure that Airbus feels that they paid at least a $Billion more than they should have for it - now that they really understand what is needed for ramp-up, profitability, and developing the future A225.

I suspect that is why Boeing was not interested either.

:checkmark:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 3778
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:03 pm

VV wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
VV wrote:
There are two interesting points to consider.
1. A220 partnership entity has to fund itself starting in 2020.
2. A220 program loses money until 2025 (see my previous comment)

One can easily conclude that a huge undertaking like the stretch of the A220-300 will have to be funded by Airbus Canada.
Thus it is unlikely the stretch of A220-300 would be offered before 2025.

Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


The report about possible AF order for 737 MAX is very confusing.

The most likely AF order if for A320neo family with CFM Leap if it is not done already. Most probably A321neo.


Consider who the CEO is---Ben Smith. At Air Canada, he was part of the management team that chose to replace old A319s and A320s with the 737 MAX 8/9. Ben Smith is now the CEO of Air France/KLM. I would not be surprised to see Air France go with the 7M8/7M9, or even the 7MX (MAX 10). The 7M9 could be with exactly 200 seats while the MAX 8 is with 180.

As for the post about the 73G...more than half that total is with WN.
 
Noshow
Posts: 2185
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:52 pm

I consider it highly unlikely that AF will order large numbers of MAXes. France wants to build their own A321neo line at Toulouse at the A380 site. Some big home order from the flag carrier would be the topping on the cake to get this going within Airbus and the EU.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11495
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:16 pm

Noshow wrote:
I consider it highly unlikely that AF will order large numbers of MAXes. France wants to build their own A321neo line at Toulouse at the A380 site. Some big home order from the flag carrier would be the topping on the cake to get this going within Airbus and the EU.

Airbus was already planning on doing that until the pandemic hit and they have to shelf the plans. A321neos at TLS are going to happen regardless of what AF orders, Airbus has nothing else to use the A380 buildings for, but it’s going to have to wait until demand recovers some and production rates are pushed backed up. There is no need for yet another A32X FAL at the moment.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5362
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:03 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
VV wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Too late for AF, and Ben Smith knows this very well. AF/KL need new, more efficient narrowbody aircraft short term, it's one of the conditions French and Dutch government have stipulated for the billions of state funds they will receive.

So I think Ben Smith mentions an A223 stretch just as negotiating tactic. AF/KL could defend a purchase of 737MAX by simply saying Airbus didn't offer what they want: an A223 stretch or cheap A320neo's on short term. French government will undoubtedly interfere and force Airbus to make cheap A320neo available for AF. KL and HV can proceed with the cheap 737MAX Boeing is desperate to sell. I expect an order from AF/KL first half of 2021 already, they need to act quickly.


The report about possible AF order for 737 MAX is very confusing.

The most likely AF order if for A320neo family with CFM Leap if it is not done already. Most probably A321neo.


Consider who the CEO is---Ben Smith. At Air Canada, he was part of the management team that chose to replace old A319s and A320s with the 737 MAX 8/9. Ben Smith is now the CEO of Air France/KLM. I would not be surprised to see Air France go with the 7M8/7M9, or even the 7MX (MAX 10). The 7M9 could be with exactly 200 seats while the MAX 8 is with 180.

As for the post about the 73G...more than half that total is with WN.


The Air Canada MAX order had more to do with the 787 delay compensation and the E-jet CF34 engine issues than a supposed bias in favour of the 737MAX from Ben Smith's side. Boeing and GE offered the 737MAX and its engines at a massive discount as part of the compensation package. It was posted here at the time, but it was along the lines of 75% off the list price. Obviously Boeing can't do that with AF-KLM, there is nothing to compensate. There will also be the trade-dispute issue, with tariffs being applied to Boeing products (and who knows how the French government will intervene in light of the dispute and the COVID-19 aid packages that seemingly allowed EU states to provide aid again).

Lets not forget that even before the type was tainted by the crashes, the 737MAX was already losing ground to the A320neo. It has less efficient engines, is heavier, has worse runway performance, narrower cabin and an extremely noisy cockpit environment. Boeing has flipped very few Airbus customers, but Airbus has won over more than a few traditional 737 operators. None of this has changed just because the 737MAX returned to the sky.

It is almost certain that they will be ordering from Airbus. The bigger question is if they will also order some from Boeing.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 678
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:38 pm

Since the Max debacle, Airbus has been dominating the narrowbody market big time.

There is no points of spending any money to launch an A220-500 - as Airbus already controls 65+% of current NB sales. Any market share gain (past 65%?) would be relatively marginal at best.

Airbus is better to keep its A220-500 card hidden, and then use it when (if) Boeing launches his new narrowbody line up.

This way, Airbus can ajust the specs of the A225 to beat whatever Boeing launches, and reach market two years before Boeing.

As we all know, an eventual A220-500 could be a minimal change one, trading range for more passenger capacity. (For superb CASM).

Or it could keep a similar range with more passenger capacity. That one would require a heavier MTOW and all the required upgrades. Way more expensive to develop, and would reach market later. Furthermore, such a version would somewhat cannibalise A320neo's sales. Launching a 320.5neo (to better compete with the Max8) would then make even more sense.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 259
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:58 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Since the Max debacle, Airbus has been dominating the narrowbody market big time.


It was dominating it before the Max debacle
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 678
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:11 pm

Vicenza wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Since the Max debacle, Airbus has been dominating the narrowbody market big time.

It was dominating it before the Max debacle

Indeed, but to a lesser extent.

The Max8 had (well, still have) a better CASM than the A320neo. So Airbus had to be more agressive in pricing it - which ended up taking production slots of more profitable A321neos.

So any A220 sales at the expense of 737s was great - and obviously did not use any 321neo production slots.

However since COVID, A320/A321neos production slots are not as valuable as they used to be... ;-)
  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos