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keesje
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What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:58 am

KLM is reorganizing its fleet

They have been a loyal Douglas-Boeing customer for the last 85 years.

:arrow: They need to order WB's, replacing the 24 747s, older 772ER's and A330s.

Image
https://leehamnews.com/2019/11/07/air-f ... the-fleet/

:arrow: The other topic is NB's. KLM has not commited to the 737MAX.
While they have strong links (MRO) with Boeing and GE on the 737, the NG fleet is aging, making lots of cycles in the European network. 5-6 flights a day is no exception. Some are still young, many not at all. https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/KLM ... b737ng.htm

KLM traditionaly has operated a strong AMS hub oriented network. Expanding their South East Europe, Middle East and Africa connections with the US West coast, they used A310s and 767s in the past, now 737NG's and A330s. From the looks of it the A321 XLR would perfectly fit in their network strategy for expanding, consolidation, defending that network. Combining Middle East with US West coats capability in an efficient way.

Image

KLM never bought Airbus NB's, but no doubt the network/ fleet people already consider it. With Boeing not progressing on the NMA and 737MAX looking a weaker investment every day, few alternatives seem left. Waiting for years seems not an option realistically. Boeing better come up with a real convincing 10 year time line.
Last edited by qf789 on Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Flamebait title
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IWMBH
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:03 pm

Is the XLR a good idea in at a slot restrained airport like AMS? If you look at the fleet development of KL in past 10 years or so you would see an increase in seats on long-range aircraft. I would love to see KL colours on a A321 but I don't see these aircraft put to use on any longer routes than the 737 is now.
 
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seahawk
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:03 pm

As they just said that they will remove the A330 from the fleet, it is just a matter of time before they buy the MAX. And the 737-10MAX will do them well.
 
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Polot
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:09 pm

According to a bunch of people in the recent KLM fleet thread (why didn’t you just post this there?) 787-9s are unsuitable replacements for long range 77E routes because AMS is too slot restricted and KLM needs the extra seats of the 77E and/or can’t increase frequencies. In fact you support this. KLM went A310->763->A330. Notice a trend? But now there is enough slots to consolidate and expand with A321XLRs?


I suspect AF XLRs at CDG will be used by AF/KLM for smaller markets than KL at AMS. Paris generally has more O&D traffic in most markets, still a large connecting hub, and has more open slots.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:27 pm

It's going to be a narrow mission profile: needing more range than a MAX 10 but within the range of an XLR; yet not so many seats to to require a widebody; and enough of those routes to justify a new type (at least 30 frames). Maybe. Maybe this is just the OP wanting a pony for his birthday.
 
airbuster
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:31 pm

Polot wrote:
According to a bunch of people in the recent KLM fleet thread (why didn’t you just post this there?) 787-9s are unsuitable replacements for long range 77E routes because AMS is too slot restricted and KLM needs the extra seats of the 77E and/or can’t increase frequencies. In fact you support this. KLM went A310->763->A330. Notice a trend? But now there is enough slots to consolidate and expand with A321XLRs?


I suspect AF XLRs at CDG will be used by AF/KLM for smaller markets than KL at AMS. Paris generally has more O&D traffic in most markets, still a large connecting hub, and has more open slots.


I don’t see a potential A321XLR as a replacement for any widebody. More an addition to the product line. You can also see it another way. Historically DC9-32->734>738/9->321XLR....look at EI putting them on European rotations during the day and transatlantic at night. But as much as I love the A321 one has to say that the max could do a large part of this market too.
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VSMUT
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:33 pm

A321XLR? Maybe not. But it is hard to imagine that they wouldn't be seriously interested in the basic A321neo. Unmatched CASK, allows for growth over the existing narrowbody fleet without taking up more slots, enough range to cover even West Africa.

A321XLR makes more sense for Air France, given slot restraints.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:35 pm

No, ain't gonna happen me thinks. As much as I prefer the A320/21 to the 737, it wouldn't really make a lot of sense to split the fleet, plus Boeing will likely give KL a good deal to keep them loyal to the brand. Plus AMS is very slot constrained and KL operate mostly 'dense' long haul routes, so very little room there for what would be a niche aircraft for them. In such an instance getting a bunch of -MAX10s would make much more sense anyway...
 
FrancisBegbie
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:38 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
It's going to be a narrow mission profile: needing more range than a MAX 10 but within the range of an XLR; yet not so many seats to to require a widebody; and enough of those routes to justify a new type (at least 30 frames). Maybe. Maybe this is just the OP wanting a pony for his birthday.


Exactly. One of the reasons I feel KLM has no rush is because the extra range of the max/neo vs current models doesn’t open many new options. If you draw two circles around AMS with the ranges of current 737 range vs Max/NEO, the area in between will show a lot of Siberian taiga, M-E unrest zones/current WB destinations, Sahara and then Atlantic and Arctic Ocean.
 
A388
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:50 pm

keesje wrote:
They need to order WB's, replacing the 24 747s, older 772ER's and A330s.


The 747 and A330 already (will) have replacements, being a combination of the 787 and 777. The 772ER probably will also get replaced by the 787. Whether KL will go for the 779 nobody knows yet. As much as I would like to see more Airbuses in KL colors, I don't see that happening. The A321IXLR is unique in its class but I don't see any routes KL would want to fly thin long haul for. As someone said, the 737-10MAX will do the job for KL in my opinion too.

KLM is clearly indicating they are going for Boeing for their entire fleet. It wouldn't make sense for them to replace their A330's with the 787 and/or 777 to streamline their fleet and than go for Airbus again with a very small subfleet of A321XLR's. It just doesn't make sense.

They will probably get more 787's and the 777X in future, being a mix of 778 and 779 models. Just my opinion.

A388
 
IWMBH
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:19 pm

FrancisBegbie wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
It's going to be a narrow mission profile: needing more range than a MAX 10 but within the range of an XLR; yet not so many seats to to require a widebody; and enough of those routes to justify a new type (at least 30 frames). Maybe. Maybe this is just the OP wanting a pony for his birthday.


Exactly. One of the reasons I feel KLM has no rush is because the extra range of the max/neo vs current models doesn’t open many new options. If you draw two circles around AMS with the ranges of current 737 range vs Max/NEO, the area in between will show a lot of Siberian taiga, M-E unrest zones/current WB destinations, Sahara and then Atlantic and Arctic Ocean.


Your right, I don't think the extra range of the latest models of NB planes are a big advantage for KL. 737-8 MAX doesn't open a lot of new options. I made some maps a while ago for the -800 and the -8MAX out of AMS (I have no idea how adding pictures to a post works, so I put the link below).

737-MAX:
https://imgur.com/a/RbYJkop

737-800
https://imgur.com/a/zD48vKN

However, the range increase for the larger models does help KL. They can now fly the MAX 10 to the same airports as the -800 with a lot more passengers on board. This will in a slot restraint airport like AMS. But, there is really no incentive for KL to choose for the MAX except for the grounding which will be lifted by the time the first 'next-gen' aircraft will arrive in Amsterdam.
Last edited by IWMBH on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Jetty
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:20 pm

Polot wrote:
According to a bunch of people in the recent KLM fleet thread (why didn’t you just post this there?) 787-9s are unsuitable replacements for long range 77E routes because AMS is too slot restricted and KLM needs the extra seats of the 77E and/or can’t increase frequencies. In fact you support this. KLM went A310->763->A330. Notice a trend? But now there is enough slots to consolidate and expand with A321XLRs?


IWMBH wrote:
Is the XLR a good idea in at a slot restrained airport like AMS? If you look at the fleet development of KL in past 10 years or so you would see an increase in seats on long-range aircraft. I would love to see KL colours on a A321 but I don't see these aircraft put to use on any longer routes than the 737 is now.


AMS isn't slot restricted forever. Current plans suggest that in 2021 40.000 slots will be added.

FrancisBegbie wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
It's going to be a narrow mission profile: needing more range than a MAX 10 but within the range of an XLR; yet not so many seats to to require a widebody; and enough of those routes to justify a new type (at least 30 frames). Maybe. Maybe this is just the OP wanting a pony for his birthday.


Exactly. One of the reasons I feel KLM has no rush is because the extra range of the max/neo vs current models doesn’t open many new options. If you draw two circles around AMS with the ranges of current 737 range vs Max/NEO, the area in between will show a lot of Siberian taiga, M-E unrest zones/current WB destinations, Sahara and then Atlantic and Arctic Ocean.

Maybe a narrow mission profile in general but the 3000-4500nm range is very important for KL. I've drawn the circles for you, these are the destinations within that range where KL flies to less than 6-weekly or with a stopover. Definitely not just desert and oceans, that applies to the 1200-2700nm range.

Image

If KL would use the A321XLR they could offer daily and direct flights to the same destinations. I'm not saying that would work on every one of these, but there is certainly a user case.

A388 wrote:
KLM is clearly indicating they are going for Boeing for their entire fleet. It wouldn't make sense for them to replace their A330's with the 787 and/or 777 to streamline their fleet and than go for Airbus again with a very small subfleet of A321XLR's. It just doesn't make sense.

A small fleet of A321XLR's alone definitely wouldn't make sense, but in combination with a large fleet of A321's it could make sense. They didn't order narrow-body's yet and didn't say anything that would 'clearly indicate' it's going to be the MAX, although that might be expected.

They will probably get more 787's and the 777X in future, being a mix of 778 and 779 models.

They don't need the range of the 778 with no destinations further than 6500nm away and don't need the capacity of the 779 with only 2 destination further than 4000nm away that offer equal or more seats than a daily 777-300.
Last edited by Jetty on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:28 pm

Jetty wrote:
A small fleet of A321XLR's alone definitely wouldn't make sense, but in combination with a large fleet of A321's it could make sense. They didn't order narrow-body's yet and didn't say anything that would 'clearly indicate' it's going to be the MAX, although that might be expected.


It wouldn't be alone, in the larger AF/KL fleet, though. KL already handle A32x at AMS and most outstations are subcontracted. AF have the infrastructure for training A320 flight and cabin crew, so it is not insurmountable. The range map is interesting, I wonder if any of these markets are driven by increased frequency?
 
IWMBH
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:36 pm

Jetty wrote:

IWMBH wrote:
Is the XLR a good idea in at a slot restrained airport like AMS? If you look at the fleet development of KL in past 10 years or so you would see an increase in seats on long-range aircraft. I would love to see KL colours on a A321 but I don't see these aircraft put to use on any longer routes than the 737 is now.


AMS isn't slot restricted forever. Current plans suggest that in 2021 40.000 slots will be added.


I think those extra slots are still a long time away and a big 'IF' with the current situation around Lelystad airport and the ''nitrogen-crises''. It's highly unlikely that any increase in capacity for AMS will be allowed any time soon. It would be a risky move to order planes for a possible slot increase in 2021.
 
JonesNL
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:36 pm

XLR is overkill for KLM. But comparing the MAX10 and the A321Neo shows that they are really close contenders, see https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1380965. Unless they really need a small amount of XLR's (<20) than Airbus can get the order. But seeing that the strategy of KLM is to go all Boeing this is an order that is in the pocket of Boeing...
 
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Polot
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:40 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Jetty wrote:
A small fleet of A321XLR's alone definitely wouldn't make sense, but in combination with a large fleet of A321's it could make sense. They didn't order narrow-body's yet and didn't say anything that would 'clearly indicate' it's going to be the MAX, although that might be expected.


It wouldn't be alone, in the larger AF/KL fleet, though. KL already handle A32x at AMS and most outstations are subcontracted. AF have the infrastructure for training A320 flight and cabin crew, so it is not insurmountable. The range map is interesting, I wonder if any of these markets are driven by increased frequency?

There still needs to be economies at scale at KLM for it to make sense. AF side can help with maintenance and training costs but AF crew won’t be flying KL’s planes and vice versa. At some point it doesn’t make sense for KL to staff for a tiny fleet even if their corporate sibling also operates the aircraft.

IWMBH wrote:
Jetty wrote:

IWMBH wrote:
Is the XLR a good idea in at a slot restrained airport like AMS? If you look at the fleet development of KL in past 10 years or so you would see an increase in seats on long-range aircraft. I would love to see KL colours on a A321 but I don't see these aircraft put to use on any longer routes than the 737 is now.


AMS isn't slot restricted forever. Current plans suggest that in 2021 40.000 slots will be added.


I think those extra slots are still a long time away and a big 'IF' with the current situation around Lelystad airport and the ''nitrogen-crises''. It's highly unlikely that any increase in capacity for AMS will be allowed any time soon. It would be a risky move to order planes for a possible slot increase in 2021.

:checkmark: With Europe being at the center of climate change debate, and increasing European public opposition to air travel, I wouldn’t count on any future slot increase as a done deal.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
airzona11
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:43 pm

A321XLR would not be used for long thin routes. This comes up weekly with a different airline and large hub. If you have a hub and are traveling far, wide bodies are what those airlines are going to use. Long and thin need to capture high yield passengers ( a lot of them) to work. There are very few long thin routes today on narrow bodies. That’s not going to change for the legacies.

KLM also has the JV and hub down the road in CDG, further reducing the long thin likely hood.
Last edited by airzona11 on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:44 pm

The whole B737NG replacement of KLM is being dragged out. Sometimes I think the KLM-ers do it just for us so we can keep talking about it.

My personal feeling is that the dynamics of this has changed a bit. If Boeing is go ahead with the 737-replacement strategy, which seems more and more likely, then KLM might rethink the replacement of the 737. There is a president, the A330 was seen as an interim ship for the 787-arrival.
On the other side, KLM might just purchase the MAX as they will be offered dirt-cheap if there will be a replacement in side.

So both replacement policies - A320NEO and 737M - can be argued, that makes it interesting what we will see in KLM colours in a few years time.
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Polot
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:46 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The whole B737NG replacement of KLM is being dragged out. Sometimes I think the KLM-ers do it just for us so we can keep talking about it.

My personal feeling is that the dynamics of this has changed a bit. If Boeing is go ahead with the 737-replacement strategy, which seems more and more likely, then KLM might rethink the replacement of the 737. There is a president, the A330 was seen as an interim ship for the 787-arrival.
On the other side, KLM might just purchase the MAX as they will be offered dirt-cheap if there will be a replacement in side.

So both replacement policies - A320NEO and 737M - can be argued, that makes it interesting what we will see in KLM colours in a few years time.

I still believe that KLM has settled on the Max (either leases or direct order), and intended to announce it this summer with the Embraer order (and when AF narrow body orders revealed), but the grounding delayed those plans for PR reasons.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Jetty
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:47 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Jetty wrote:

IWMBH wrote:
Is the XLR a good idea in at a slot restrained airport like AMS? If you look at the fleet development of KL in past 10 years or so you would see an increase in seats on long-range aircraft. I would love to see KL colours on a A321 but I don't see these aircraft put to use on any longer routes than the 737 is now.


AMS isn't slot restricted forever. Current plans suggest that in 2021 40.000 slots will be added.


I think those extra slots are still a long time away and a big 'IF' with the current situation around Lelystad airport and the ''nitrogen-crises''. It's highly unlikely that any increase in capacity for AMS will be allowed any time soon. It would be a risky move to order planes for a possible slot increase in 2021.

If with 'anytime soon' you mean the next few months you are correct. But there is nothing stopping an announcement in a year or so if those issues are resolved. Nobody said they have to order them this month. And there is also a risk involved in not having the planes when slots open up, then they are taken by the competition without any new ones in a decade or so.
Last edited by Jetty on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jfk777
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:50 pm

KLM could use A321's capacity but where are they going to use their 8 hour flying time ? Flying to Boston, JFK or Montreal with an A321neo XLR is not happening at KLM, those are 777 & 787 routes to meet demand. KLM needs "regular' range A321's.
 
Jetty
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:50 pm

JonesNL wrote:
XLR is overkill for KLM. But comparing the MAX10 and the A321Neo shows that they are really close contenders, see https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1380965. Unless they really need a small amount of XLR's (<20) than Airbus can get the order. But seeing that the strategy of KLM is to go all Boeing this is an order that is in the pocket of Boeing...

The strategy of KLM isn't to 'go all Boeing', it is to reduce the number of different airplanes in the fleet and the obvious way to do that was to ditch the A330's. That doesn't rule out the A320-series as new narrowbody.
 
Jetty
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:59 pm

jfk777 wrote:
KLM could use A321's capacity but where are they going to use their 8 hour flying time ? Flying to Boston, JFK or Montreal with an A321neo XLR is not happening at KLM, those are 777 & 787 routes to meet demand. KLM needs "regular' range A321's.

Many routes within the 321XLR range are 787/777 less than daily or with a stopover, thus not routes with 787/777 demand per se. Take your example of YUL: using a daily 321XLR instead of a 4-weekly A332 is at least something that can reasonably be considered.
 
A388
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:02 pm

Jetty wrote:
A small fleet of A321XLR's alone definitely wouldn't make sense, but in combination with a large fleet of A321's it could make sense. They didn't order narrow-body's yet and didn't say anything that would 'clearly indicate' it's going to be the MAX, although that might be expected.

They will probably get more 787's and the 777X in future, being a mix of 778 and 779 models.

They don't need the range of the 778 with no destinations further than 6500nm away and don't need the capacity of the 779 with only 2 destination further than 4000nm away that offer equal or more seats than a daily 777-300.


Jetty, no matter how you look at it, adding a fleet of A321's just doesn't make sense. Why would they need a large fleet of A321's for? It only way makes sense if they go for a mix of A320NEO's for the replacement of their entire 737 fleet. And again, on which routes does the range of the A321XLR make sense? I don't see any routes that would require the A321XLR for KL.

About the 777X, If it really is too big, they will just go for more 787-10's.

A388
 
Jetty
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:13 pm

A388 wrote:
Jetty, no matter how you look at it, adding a fleet of A321's just doesn't make sense. Why would they need a large fleet of A321's for? It only way makes sense if they go for a mix of A320NEO's for the replacement of their entire 737 fleet.

I entirely agree it only makes sense if the A320 is the new narrow-body. But they have a lot of NG's to replace and the MAX isn't even re-certified yet so that isn't a huge stretch of the imagination. And only if AMS gets more slots, but that isn't unlikely either.

And again, on which routes does the range of the A321XLR make sense? I don't see any routes that would require the A321XLR for KL.

Some of these destinations, to which KL all already flies but with stopovers and less than daily frequencies. Faster and more convenient schedules command higher prices which might offset the downside of using a A321 instead of a widebody. And I'm not saying KLM should, just that there definitely is a reasonable use case for KLM.
Image
 
factsonly
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:44 pm

keesje wrote:



Image


From the looks of it the A321 XLR would perfectly fit in their network strategy for expanding, consolidation, defending that network.


Sorry OP, but you answered your own question.

Did you even read the LEEHAM fleet planning graphic and investor day information??

AF/KLM has announced that KLM must reduce its fleet from 5x to 3x different cockpit groups, this is very clearly indicated in the graphic:

1. Regional fleet = 80-130 seater - current Embraer cockpit
2. European fleet 130-200 seater - current B737 cockpit
3. Long Haul fleet 250-400 seater - current B777/B787 cockpit

The question therefore is not just about the A321XLR, but which AIRCRAFT FAMILY will replace KLM's European fleet.

This is either the A320 or B737 family or possibly something completely NEW altogether.
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:26 pm

Jetty wrote:

AMS isn't slot restricted forever. Current plans suggest that in 2021 40.000 slots will be added.

Maybe a narrow mission profile in general but the 3000-4500nm range is very important for KL. I've drawn the circles for you, these are the destinations within that range where KL flies to less than 6-weekly or with a stopover. Definitely not just desert and oceans, that applies to the 1200-2700nm range.

Image

If KL would use the A321XLR they could offer daily and direct flights to the same destinations. I'm not saying that would work on every one of these, but there is certainly a user case.


That's the point. Knowing KLM strategy and network there is a big segment where 737NG and A330/789 are a weak compromise at this stage. Frequency (5 wave system) opportunities and DL alliance development introduce requirements that aren't countered by "more of the same".

Schiphol is noise restricted too. A quiet A321 sailing in, instead of an A330 makes a different late at night.

The MAX backlog was ordered before the crashes/investigation and not after. Ignore & we are in a diffrent dimension. Would you order a MAX fleet for the next 30 years? .. Things changed the hard way. KLM historically would have a Boeing bias for new types, but not a bias mistifying sensible business decisions.

If Boeing would come up today with a solid FSA case and a 737NG bridge solution, that would open new doors. But I've seen nothing.. KLM is one of the only legacy 737 operators left in Europe.
Last edited by keesje on Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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DL747400
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:33 pm

A321XLR would be perfect to use on a restarted AMS-DFW route.
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Asiaflyer
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The whole B737NG replacement of KLM is being dragged out. Sometimes I think the KLM-ers do it just for us so we can keep talking about it.

My personal feeling is that the dynamics of this has changed a bit. If Boeing is go ahead with the 737-replacement strategy, which seems more and more likely, then KLM might rethink the replacement of the 737. There is a president, the A330 was seen as an interim ship for the 787-arrival.
On the other side, KLM might just purchase the MAX as they will be offered dirt-cheap if there will be a replacement in side.

So both replacement policies - A320NEO and 737M - can be argued, that makes it interesting what we will see in KLM colours in a few years time.


Being one of the last major carriers to go for 737MAX as the next generation NB to keep in the fleet for the next 20-30 years sounds really outdated. KLM should think outside the box.
What about being the launch customer for Boeings next NB instead? Or a mix of A220/A321?
 
Antarius
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:57 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The whole B737NG replacement of KLM is being dragged out. Sometimes I think the KLM-ers do it just for us so we can keep talking about it.

My personal feeling is that the dynamics of this has changed a bit. If Boeing is go ahead with the 737-replacement strategy, which seems more and more likely, then KLM might rethink the replacement of the 737. There is a president, the A330 was seen as an interim ship for the 787-arrival.
On the other side, KLM might just purchase the MAX as they will be offered dirt-cheap if there will be a replacement in side.

So both replacement policies - A320NEO and 737M - can be argued, that makes it interesting what we will see in KLM colours in a few years time.


Being one of the last major carriers to go for 737MAX as the next generation NB to keep in the fleet for the next 20-30 years sounds really outdated. KLM should think outside the box.
What about being the launch customer for Boeings next NB instead? Or a mix of A220/A321?


Last major carrier? So AA, UA, BA, WN, AC etc. Are just bush plane operators?

Fact free homerism on the 320 series is unreal on a.net. great plane -absolutely. Only plane? Only if you bury your head in the sand and ignore 5000 orders.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT BIS LHR TXL
 
cschleic
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:00 pm

What struck me about the fleet slide is that KLM operates from an extremely large and constrained airport yet has only 166 planes. But then it's strictly a hub and spoke model.
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:06 pm

Antarius wrote:

Last major carrier? So AA, UA, BA, WN, AC etc. Are just bush plane operators?

Fact free homerism on the 320 series is unreal on a.net.


AA has 600(?) NEO orders/options and did MAX to keep friends/add capacity quickly.
UA is a good one. The commited to 737 MAX and need 757 replacements soon.
BA? You mean the non binding IAG encouragement because they want a competitive landscape?
WN? https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/busi ... index.html
AC? https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... -1.5323331 while silently adding A321s

I hate to say it, but the Boeing / 737 MAX situation is probably more severe than many on this board are ready to accept.. which is not in the interest of anyone to be frank. Everyone is looking brave, because there is no plan B in the foreseable future.. KL didn't order MAX even before that (2011-2018), while they were healthy, growing and well financed (and still are).

cschleic wrote:
What struck me about the fleet slide is that KLM operates from an extremely large and constrained airport yet has only 166 planes. But then it's strictly a hub and spoke model.


That's correct, but it's 66 widebodies & they do a lot of cargo, codeshares & have Transavia for leisure.
Last edited by keesje on Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:08 pm

The A321neoXLR is a nice frame, but not the first frame I would thing about in regards to KLM. If KLM really wants to increase the medium size of its narrowbody fleet and does look at Airbus, the normal A321neo ACF would be the practical choice, you can not buy another narrow body frame today with the capabilities in regards to capacity, payload and runway performance.
But if people want to talk about the XLR, there are some islands in the Caribbean, where a few A321neoXLR could make the operation easier, because you would not need a widebody under for those frames marginal conditions. For capacity you increase frequency.

If KLM would decide to go for the A321, I would expect they move completely over, also taking A320neo, an all or nothing decision, that is Boeing's to loose.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:11 pm

KLM doesn't seem to have any issues right now with the current fleet which doesn't have anything slightly similar to the A321XLR. Of course they could do some routes with this type they cannot do right now. But is that really a big issue considering their business model?

As the investor day sheets show there's not even a real need for a replacement of the 737 fleet. Replacement wasn't even mentioned like it was on the AF sheet. This could mean that they are not looking or that they have already selected the MAX, but don't want to make that public right now.
 
marcelh
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:39 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
This could mean that they are not looking or that they have already selected the MAX, but don't want to make that public right now.


IIRC, there were some rumors that Transavia (HV) is going to order the 737MAX. IMO they need the MAX more because HV has more longer sectors than KLM and will benefit more of the lower fuel burn. That will free up some NG's, which can be moved to KLM to replace the first batch of 737-800 and some (or all) 737-700.
 
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FlyRow
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:01 pm

cschleic wrote:
What struck me about the fleet slide is that KLM operates from an extremely large and constrained airport yet has only 166 planes. But then it's strictly a hub and spoke model.


relative small distances and high frequencies. Cityhopper and 737 usually get 3-4 rotations per day. Most EU destinations are under 2 hours.

Look at the amount of UK flights, which take 3hr's to reach a destination, turn around and fly back to AMS, you can use them brazil yets very effective that way. I wonder how high kl's utilization is compared to other airlines in that regard.
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keesje
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:03 pm

Lets' face reality. Nobody is buying a MAX and existing customers are into contigency plans.

https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/c ... e-by-march

KLM is lucky they didn't commit to MAX like most other 737 operators.They have more options.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
crazy
Posts: 70
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 10:33 am

Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:12 pm

I hope for the A321XLR. Airbus realized a wonderful competitor to B737 MAX and the Boeing workhorse self damaged with the two crashes and the lost of 346 people.
 
Asiaflyer
Posts: 892
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:50 am

Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:21 pm

Antarius wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The whole B737NG replacement of KLM is being dragged out. Sometimes I think the KLM-ers do it just for us so we can keep talking about it.

My personal feeling is that the dynamics of this has changed a bit. If Boeing is go ahead with the 737-replacement strategy, which seems more and more likely, then KLM might rethink the replacement of the 737. There is a president, the A330 was seen as an interim ship for the 787-arrival.
On the other side, KLM might just purchase the MAX as they will be offered dirt-cheap if there will be a replacement in side.

So both replacement policies - A320NEO and 737M - can be argued, that makes it interesting what we will see in KLM colours in a few years time.


Being one of the last major carriers to go for 737MAX as the next generation NB to keep in the fleet for the next 20-30 years sounds really outdated. KLM should think outside the box.
What about being the launch customer for Boeings next NB instead? Or a mix of A220/A321?


Last major carrier? So AA, UA, BA, WN, AC etc. Are just bush plane operators?

Fact free homerism on the 320 series is unreal on a.net. great plane -absolutely. Only plane? Only if you bury your head in the sand and ignore 5000 orders.

Did you get to upset to check facts before you posted that? :scratchchin:
 
inkjet7
Posts: 116
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:31 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
KLM doesn't seem to have any issues right now with the current fleet which doesn't have anything slightly similar to the A321XLR.


One known issue is they would like to swap their 737-700's for larger models. The -700's are almost as expensive to operate as -800's but the latter have more revenue potential.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:20 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
KLM doesn't seem to have any issues right now with the current fleet which doesn't have anything slightly similar to the A321XLR.


One known issue is they would like to swap their 737-700's for larger models. The -700's are almost as expensive to operate as -800's but the latter have more revenue potential.

That's indeed going on right now, the recent last of the line 737-800s are part of this replacement. For the others the option that FlyRow mentioned, getting more 737-800s from Transavia is very likely indeed.
 
A388
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:22 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
One known issue is they would like to swap their 737-700's for larger models. The -700's are almost as expensive to operate as -800's but the latter have more revenue potential.


Just curious but why did KL go for the 73G if it has equal costs compared to the -800? Wasn't this known at the time they ordered the 73G?

A388
 
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Momo1435
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:39 pm

A388 wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
One known issue is they would like to swap their 737-700's for larger models. The -700's are almost as expensive to operate as -800's but the latter have more revenue potential.


Just curious but why did KL go for the 73G if it has equal costs compared to the -800? Wasn't this known at the time they ordered the 73G?

A388

The 737-700 was a late addition for KLM, they only placed the 1st order in late 2006, almost 10 years after their 1st 737 NG order.

At the time they wanted a direct replacement for the 737-300s for the thinner routes, they also said that they could use the extra range of the 737-700. It was also a coordinated order with Transavia who already had the 737-700 in their fleet. So it wasn't like didn't know the performance of the plane compared to the 737-800 when they placed the order. Those were different times without slot constraints at AMS, as that is also one of the reasons why they are now being replaced by larger planes.

This does indeed reads like the A321 would also be the perfect fit for KLM right now, but as Keesje said, they have options.... So it's inevitable that KLM will order it.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:02 pm

Dutchy wrote:
There is a president, the A330 was seen as an interim ship for the 787-arrival.

When KLM phases out the A330 in 2025, the type will have seen 20 years of service. I wouldn't call that an interim solution nor a precedent.
 
Jetty
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:11 am

FlyRow wrote:
cschleic wrote:
What struck me about the fleet slide is that KLM operates from an extremely large and constrained airport yet has only 166 planes. But then it's strictly a hub and spoke model.


relative small distances and high frequencies.

+ High utilization and load-factor.
Image

Load factor 2018:

IAG
BA: 80.4%
IB: 83.1%
EI: 73.3 %

LH-Group
LH: 81.4%
LX: 82.8%
OS: 79.3%

AFKL
AF: 86.2%
KL: 89.1%

Thus KLM transports at least 13% more passengers per plane over the same distance than any of the direct competitors due to better efficiency (not taking into account seat density which would add to the difference).
 
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seahawk
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:50 am

KLM even made the original 737-900 work for them, so I think the 737 must work for them.
 
pdp
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:45 am

seahawk wrote:
KLM even made the original 737-900 work for them, so I think the 737 must work for them.


To be fair, AMS is sat at -12ft and with the exception of Oostbaan every runway is over 3000 metres long, even the flying pig that was the original 900 should be fine!

I would half expect KLM to order the MAX 10. It suits their short haul requirements reasonably well for hub airports. Chuck in some 8s for good measure and you've got a very decent European fleet!

The 321 is a lovely aircraft, but given KLM wants to simplify, adding another fleet type of aircraft would be a strange one. Especially given the slot restrictions at AMS meaning larger aircraft for long haul being sensible
 
inkjet7
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:24 am

seahawk wrote:
KLM even made the original 737-900 work for them, so I think the 737 must work for them.


KL's 737-900 has more rows with larger seat pitch to accomodate more Economy comfort and Europe Business passengers relative to the -800.
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:49 am

inkjet7 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
KLM even made the original 737-900 work for them, so I think the 737 must work for them.


KL's 737-900 has more rows with larger seat pitch to accomodate more Economy comfort and Europe Business passengers relative to the -800.


seahawk wrote:
KLM even made the original 737-900 work for them, so I think the 737 must work for them.


They have the same seatcount as -800s because door exit limits the non ER's to 180.. when they were bought, business seats were biggger (5 abreast). Now they make the best of it. Nobody was willing to buy the 5 of them.

Jetty wrote:
...
Thus KLM transports at least 13% more passengers per plane over the same distance than any of the direct competitors due to better efficiency (not taking into account seat density which would add to the difference).


The home market of KLM is Western Europe, by smart revenue management they fill up the aircraft. An XLR could up capacity in the same slots now used by 737-800s. They would probably use 199 seat cabins, 3 class to not increase crew members or have configurations that are acceptable for shorter TATL, up to 7-8 hr flights. Replacing A330/787 when margins are low or seasonal or opening / restoring direct connections. The game will change with Jetblue, AA and probably more coming in. As a legacy you can either ignore or anticipate.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Sokes
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Re: KLM 737 replacement options, A321XLR inevitable?

Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:57 am

IWMBH wrote:
(I have no idea how adding pictures to a post works, so I put the link below).

737-MAX:
https://imgur.com/a/RbYJkop



Write [img]...
...[/img]

I guess that much you already knew.
That's not it. Your link has the URL-address above. Right click the picture and open in new tap. Now the URL-address ends with ".png"
Write this URL-address instead of ...

If you click a photo from wikipedia you get the photo in big with some text, the URL ends with "jpg". You have to click the photo again. Now you have only the photo and the URL starts with "upload...". copy/ paste this URL in between [img] and well the other bracket which includes "/".

If you "reply with quote" this post you'll see how I did it for your link.

Image
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
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