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airbuster
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:22 pm

Look guys. I fly the Airbus for KLM. I have this discussion week in week out. If anyone would love an A320 order it would be me but I can assure you that nobody knows at this moment what KLM will order. I haven’t heard rumors or management say anything about this. Time will tell.
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ArjenterAvest
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:55 pm

seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:29 pm

ArjenterAvest wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


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I agree with you, @ArjenterAvest. I will avoid the MAX at all costs, but I have one question: if KLM would choose Airbus, would they most likely choose the A320neo and A321neo?
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:34 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
ArjenterAvest wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


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I agree with you, @ArjenterAvest. I will avoid the MAX at all costs, but I have one question: if KLM would choose Airbus, would they most likely choose the A320neo and A321neo?


But I do see that KLM would order the MAX, and they will definitely know the they would choose it.
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qf789
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:09 am

Seriously keep to the topic. Keep personal comments towards other users out of the discussion. The 2 accounts are NOT linked in anyway. The behavior of some users in this thread has been truly disgusting, You are all expected to respect others opinions whether you agree with them or not, not make baseless accusations. If you have nothing constructive to add to the topic, move on to the next topic.
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seahawk
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:10 am

ArjenterAvest wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


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Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:02 am

seahawk wrote:
ArjenterAvest wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


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Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.


Somewhere I read about neo production issues, does that problem still exist? But the MAX problems are definitely bigger than the neo problems.
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frigatebird
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:24 am

Personally, I would love to see the A32xneo in KLM colors. They're great aircraft, and I'm looking forward to my first A321neo flight in 2 months. But great aircraft have have this disadvantage:
seahawk wrote:
Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.


VSMUT wrote:
FlyRow wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Not yet, but it opens up for future flexbility.


Why? They need to upgauge longhaul fligths, not downgauge. They just don't have the room for a large scale smaller route expansion which the XLR would be able to offer. Untill AMS get's more space, which seems to get more unlikely by the day (not a opinion if this is good or bad, but growth options are very limited) them there won't be much room for these kinds of routes. KLM will need bigger planes if they want to grow in passenger numbers, not a smaller inbetween.


Reality is that we don't know what the future looks like in just 5 years. A combination of an expanding hub, reduction in short-haul flying (some flights already being replaced by trains), an impending economic crisis and unrest in the middle east etc. There's a pretty good chance the A321LR or A321XLR makes sense for KLM in a few years.

If Swiss and Brussels Airlines start expanding massively into KLMs African and Middle Eastern markets with long range A321s flying at higher frequencies, is KLM going to remain satisfied with the current offering? If the US3 start stealing customers with their massive fleets of A321XLRs?


You're not the only one wanting to see the A321XLR with KLM. It's a great aircraft. But not for KLM. AMS' slot restriction problems won't be resolved, it will only get worse. Pressure groups (environmental and people living near the airport) don't want expansion, and they're gaining ground within the general public. Even the additional slots beyond the current 500000 per year are subject to strict new government criteria on noise levels, there must be a demonstrable reduction in nuisance levels for local residents. Which will be very hard to demonstrate IMO. Even if slots open up as a result of crises or unrest, filling these with A321XLR is not a long term solution. What if there is growth again but you're based on a slot restricted airport?

As said, I think the A321XLR is a great aircraft. I think AF will be the airline within the group who will order it, plenty of room at CDG. But IMO the threat from competing airlines with the A321XLR is exaggerated. If flying the latest and newest aircraft is the only way to survive the competition, KL would have gone belly-up many years ago.
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:33 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Somewhere I read about neo production issues, does that problem still exist? But the MAX problems are definitely bigger than the neo problems.

It's not the production issues (mainly caused by the P&W engines), but the 'problem' is the huge backlog. A32xneo production is sold out for many years to come.
This is also why I find it hard to believe Airbus will apply the high discounts some posters claim they will. A KLM order would be nice for prestige, but that will be forgotten within weeks. Now that Airbus has such a popular aircraft, they want to make as much profit with it as possible. If Boeing launches the FSA it will be time for discounting again.
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VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:42 am

frigatebird wrote:
You're not the only one wanting to see the A321XLR with KLM.


I really don't. I see it as a way of sneaking euro-business class seating onto 9-hour flights.

But you can't deny that going for the A320/A321neo offers a way more compelling option to cover for future uncertainties, something they won't be able to do with the 737MAX.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:57 am

VSMUT wrote:

But you can't deny that going for the A320/A321neo offers a way more compelling option to cover for future uncertainties, something they won't be able to do with the 737MAX.


While I agree with you on that, the question: does KLM want to retrain 737 crew on Airbus? still remains unanswered. I think KLM does see the A32Xneo advantages, and that they are coming closer to choosing the Airbus. I think they will still use Boeing for long-haul. Then KLM will have 3 aircraft brands in their fleet: Embraer, Airbus, and Boeing. And that sounds great.

Will KLM choose the CFM or P&W engines? The E195-E2 has P&W engines, but I still think KLM will choose CFM on the Airbus since they prefer CFM.
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frigatebird
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:02 pm

VSMUT wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
You're not the only one wanting to see the A321XLR with KLM.


I really don't. I see it as a way of sneaking euro-business class seating onto 9-hour flights.

Maybe if HV goes for long haul again (they used to serve destinations like DUR and KTM). But KLM, no I don't think they will. One of Ben Smith's first priorities was to standardize the Business class product, especially at AF. So I don't think he'll allow a totally inferior business class product at KLM long haul aircraft. It would be more like the SAS/TAP/Aer Lingus solution: viewtopic.php?t=1435463

VSMUT wrote:
But you can't deny that going for the A320/A321neo offers a way more compelling option to cover for future uncertainties, something they won't be able to do with the 737MAX.

True.
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VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:08 pm

frigatebird wrote:
But KLM, no I don't think they will. One of Ben Smith's first priorities was to standardize the Business class product, especially at AF.


They would be standardizing the business class product. Standardizing it to the the narrowbody standard. Never say never, Lufthansa already sends standard A321s to Cairo and Tel Aviv. Air Baltic does Abu Dhabi with the standard A220. Standard narrowbody economy class means they can send the same plane to regional destinations and across the Atlantic.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:34 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Airbusfan29 wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
KL will order 737 MAX to replace the NGs.

Almost no possibility for an A220/320 series at all. Wont happen. They are as loyal to the 737 as WN and FR are.

A320NEO would do the job, and certainly you could make a case for A321/A321XLR in the KL blue but wont happen. They'll likely be into the new MOM / 797 whenever Boeing release it.


I strongly disagree with your comment. I am 90% certain KLM will get the neo because the Group will decide, and the Group prefers Airbus. The Group is mostly French: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France–KLM

And the French prefer Airbus. Air France and KLM can say whatever they want, but the Group will make the final decision.


Doesn't work like that mate. "the French prefer Airbus" is a rather blanket statement and is factually wrong. Its like saying "Americans prefer Boeing" - that's factually wrong too.

In this day and age, politics play a much smaller role in selection of aircraft than they used to. The fact is KL are as staunch a Boeing airline as you'll ever find. Its nothing to do with flag waving and all that silliness that infests this site - its just practicality.

Their training and culture is focused on the Boeing. Not because the Boeing is better (we've established on this site ad nauseum that the two OEMs are very finely matched) but because that's their culture. All their training Captains, procedures and infrastructure is set up to support Boeing aircraft. The crews are trained to excellence on the Boeing. Their pilots have been quite vocal in saying that they prefer Boeing,. That's not to diminish the Airbus, its just their preference. the Dutch like to stick to what they know, tradition and heritage mean a lot to them and there is a degree of (almost) arrogance too - they prefer the Boeing because they are very very good at operating them, they have one of the best safety records in the world and they do a lot of other airlines' MX work on their Boeings too. They are a Boeing centre of excellence, they are one of the first people Boeing speak to when they are designing new airframes or variants. They are (rightly) extremely proud of this. Its just how they roll. They got good use out of the A330s and A310s before that but were never and have never been an Airbus centre of excellence in the same way they are with Boeing. Their charter arm flies the 737, heck even the King and Queen royal flight / Govt flight is a 737 now.

The point is not really that they are closed to the idea of operating Airbuses (they have and still do) but that there are savings to be made in having only three very similar type ratings in your fleet, all your engines from GE and all your training and support, infrastructure, parts, computer systems etc from one OEM. The A330 was a great plane for them but now the 787 does what they can do better and cheaper so that's why they are going. Likewise then, the 737MAX can do anything the NEO can do (apart from the XLR A321....) but cheaper. Why would they change to Airbus? Its not like Airbus are going to give them a sweetheart deal to bring them in by selling them at a loss to make the financial transaction look worthwhile - this is their cashcow, they have no need to offer those kind of discounts when space on the line is at a premium.

The MAX will come back in a few months or latest by Summer next year and be fully worked out. The issues will be forgotten as they always are - its a very fine plane indeed and a good competitive match for the NEO, Boeing will sort it. I have absolute faith. It may be that KL will wait a couple of years before pressing the button on a MAX order, or as DALCE has stated above, be the first adopters of their new clean sheet NB which will come sooner than people think I suspect, could be launched quite soon.

KLM wont get the NEO, neither will Transavia. AF and its subsidiaries will get a mix of A32XNEO and A220 and they'll do great with them. Longer term we may even see some of the AF 77Ws be replaced with A35Ks or 779Xs - the French in as far as AF is typical, like both Boeing and Airbus and have done since the first Airbuses came in.


Just to reinforce my earlier post in the light of some repetition of wishful thinking, I don't see KL buying the A320NEO.

Transavia will go MAX, so will KL. When Boeing build their new clean sheet NB they will trade in their MAXes to be an early adopter in the same way they ordered A330s to cover the 767/MD11 retirements until the 787s arrived.

I am 99% sure this is the focus of their discussions with Boeing. A sweetheart deal for a big raft of 737-8M, 737-9M and perhaps a few 737-10M on top to cover them and Transavia, with a clause in place that says they can trade them in with Boeing once the new NB is released. If we assume KL order in 2021, they would be able to roll over their entire 737NG fleet by about 2025. A new Boeing NB wont be entering service until 2030 onwards, so if we figure 2031, the oldest 737 MAXes in the KL fleet will be nine years old at that point and still in good shape but that's a good time to be replacing them - ask SQ, QR etc.

Its a big order - 55-60 birds for KL mainline, another 45-50 for Transavia, allowing for a little bit of expansion. There is no way Boeing lose this to Airbus.

As for the PR of ordering the MAX - it isn't back flying yet. You can bet your bottom dollar that it will be subject to regulatory scrutiny the likes of which has never been seen before, before they certify it safe to return to ops. It will be safe, once that happens. It is a great ride, a fantastically efficient plane and KL will do great with them. IF BA can order them then so can KL, no problem. The love for the 737 here is deep. Nobody wants to see more accidents. It will be safe as realistically possible when it comes back.

Figure on the ban being lifted before the summer this year, KLM then order at the start of next year when its been flying 6-9 months with no issue, no drama. There are some very good PR firms in Holland, they'll make it work.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:37 pm

VSMUT wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
But KLM, no I don't think they will. One of Ben Smith's first priorities was to standardize the Business class product, especially at AF.


They would be standardizing the business class product. Standardizing it to the the narrowbody standard. Never say never, Lufthansa already sends standard A321s to Cairo and Tel Aviv. Air Baltic does Abu Dhabi with the standard A220. Standard narrowbody economy class means they can send the same plane to regional destinations and across the Atlantic.

But not the long haul business class standard. Certainly for the transatlantic JV this would be unacceptable. Anyway, since we're getting a bit off topic let's agree to disagree on this point ;)
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:53 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:

Transavia will go MAX, so will KL.


Transavia will go MAX, but that doesn’t mean KLM will order the MAX as well. Source: https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... ng-737-max (Dutch only)


De beslissing van Transavia om ook met de MAX te gaan vliegen betekent volgens Ten Brink overigens niet dat KLM gelijktijdig op het type overschakelt.



English: According to Ten Brink, Transavia's decision to also fly with the MAX does not mean that KLM will simultaneously switch to the type.

And that is only if KLM would choose the MAX.

And I highly doubt it KLM will choose the MAX. If they want to save money on training, I would get it why they would choose the MAX. Transavia is owned by KLM, but Transavia is still a separate company, the Transavia company still exists.
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:01 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Just to reinforce my earlier post in the light of some repetition of wishful thinking, I don't see KL buying the A320NEO.

Transavia will go MAX, so will KL. When Boeing build their new clean sheet NB they will trade in their MAXes to be an early adopter in the same way they ordered A330s to cover the 767/MD11 retirements until the 787s arrived.

I am 99% sure this is the focus of their discussions with Boeing. A sweetheart deal for a big raft of 737-8M, 737-9M and perhaps a few 737-10M on top to cover them and Transavia, with a clause in place that says they can trade them in with Boeing once the new NB is released. If we assume KL order in 2021, they would be able to roll over their entire 737NG fleet by about 2025. A new Boeing NB wont be entering service until 2030 onwards, so if we figure 2031, the oldest 737 MAXes in the KL fleet will be nine years old at that point and still in good shape but that's a good time to be replacing them - ask SQ, QR etc.

Its a big order - 55-60 birds for KL mainline, another 45-50 for Transavia, allowing for a little bit of expansion. There is no way Boeing lose this to Airbus.

As for the PR of ordering the MAX - it isn't back flying yet. You can bet your bottom dollar that it will be subject to regulatory scrutiny the likes of which has never been seen before, before they certify it safe to return to ops. It will be safe, once that happens. It is a great ride, a fantastically efficient plane and KL will do great with them. IF BA can order them then so can KL, no problem. The love for the 737 here is deep. Nobody wants to see more accidents. It will be safe as realistically possible when it comes back.

Figure on the ban being lifted before the summer this year, KLM then order at the start of next year when its been flying 6-9 months with no issue, no drama. There are some very good PR firms in Holland, they'll make it work.


Transavia is on record that they will indeed order the MAX, KLM isn't interestingly though. It would be a good strategic move for KLM and Boeing alike, so it could be a good option to move forward. KLM has the habit of using their a/c a long time though, their oldest four 737's are 1999 vintage, so 20,5 years old. Not speaking of the widebodies, which are older. Being a blue-chip airline and given the size of the potential order of around KLM 55-60 (current 52) + Transavia (current 35 NL+32 FR) 75, would make a sizeable order of 135 with a good mix of 737-8M and 737-10M for both airlines. A bit of room for expansion, for the number of a/c and the number of passengers per a/c.
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
Just to reinforce my earlier post in the light of some repetition of wishful thinking, I don't see KL buying the A320NEO.

Transavia will go MAX, so will KL. When Boeing build their new clean sheet NB they will trade in their MAXes to be an early adopter in the same way they ordered A330s to cover the 767/MD11 retirements until the 787s arrived.

I am 99% sure this is the focus of their discussions with Boeing. A sweetheart deal for a big raft of 737-8M, 737-9M and perhaps a few 737-10M on top to cover them and Transavia, with a clause in place that says they can trade them in with Boeing once the new NB is released. If we assume KL order in 2021, they would be able to roll over their entire 737NG fleet by about 2025. A new Boeing NB wont be entering service until 2030 onwards, so if we figure 2031, the oldest 737 MAXes in the KL fleet will be nine years old at that point and still in good shape but that's a good time to be replacing them - ask SQ, QR etc.

Its a big order - 55-60 birds for KL mainline, another 45-50 for Transavia, allowing for a little bit of expansion. There is no way Boeing lose this to Airbus.

As for the PR of ordering the MAX - it isn't back flying yet. You can bet your bottom dollar that it will be subject to regulatory scrutiny the likes of which has never been seen before, before they certify it safe to return to ops. It will be safe, once that happens. It is a great ride, a fantastically efficient plane and KL will do great with them. IF BA can order them then so can KL, no problem. The love for the 737 here is deep. Nobody wants to see more accidents. It will be safe as realistically possible when it comes back.

Figure on the ban being lifted before the summer this year, KLM then order at the start of next year when its been flying 6-9 months with no issue, no drama. There are some very good PR firms in Holland, they'll make it work.


Transavia is on record that they will indeed order the MAX, KLM isn't interestingly though. It would be a good strategic move for KLM and Boeing alike, so it could be a good option to move forward. KLM has the habit of using their a/c a long time though, their oldest four 737's are 1999 vintage, so 20,5 years old. Not speaking of the widebodies, which are older. Being a blue-chip airline and given the size of the potential order of around KLM 55-60 (current 52) + Transavia (current 35 NL+32 FR) 75, would make a sizeable order of 135 with a good mix of 737-8M and 737-10M for both airlines. A bit of room for expansion, for the number of a/c and the number of passengers per a/c.


As if nothing happened. (the Transavia article is pre grounding too). I don't see KLM selecting the second best aircraft, even recertified.

I guess they were lucky not to order the MAX over the last 8 years (why?) so they can now take the best decision given the new situation.

KLM has nothing against more Airbusses in their fleet if they provide the best value.

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Dutchy
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:39 pm

keesje wrote:
As if nothing happened. (the Transavia article is pre grounding too). I don't see KLM selecting the second best aircraft, even recertified.

I guess they were lucky not to order the MAX over the last 8 years (why?) so they can now take the best decision given the new situation.

KLM has nothing against more Airbusses in their fleet if they provide the best value.


If memory serves me right, it was mentioned again by a top executive from Transavia that they will order the MAX to replace their current fleet, delivery starting next year. I too believe that KLM will select the best aircraft given all parameters, not convinced at all that that will be the NEO.

But we can debate all we want, in the end KLM will make their decision known.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:41 pm

keesje wrote:

I don't see KLM selecting the second best aircraft, even recertified.

I guess they were lucky not to order the MAX over the last 8 years (why?) so they can now take the best decision given the new situation.

KLM has nothing against more Airbusses in their fleet if they provide the best value.

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https://www.airhistory.net/photographer ... ard-Helmer


I agree. If KLM would choose the MAX, they would’ve placed an order in the years before the crashes.
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FlyRow
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:35 pm

VSMUT wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
You're not the only one wanting to see the A321XLR with KLM.


I really don't. I see it as a way of sneaking euro-business class seating onto 9-hour flights.

But you can't deny that going for the A320/A321neo offers a way more compelling option to cover for future uncertainties, something they won't be able to do with the 737MAX.


And the proof is the other way round.
Look at Aer Lingus, TAP Portugal, SAS for example introducing a proper C-class on it's A321LR, being used on EU flights as well.
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VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:42 pm

FlyRow wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
You're not the only one wanting to see the A321XLR with KLM.


I really don't. I see it as a way of sneaking euro-business class seating onto 9-hour flights.

But you can't deny that going for the A320/A321neo offers a way more compelling option to cover for future uncertainties, something they won't be able to do with the 737MAX.


And the proof is the other way round.
Look at Aer Lingus, TAP Portugal, SAS for example introducing a proper C-class on it's A321LR, being used on EU flights as well.


For now, that is. You can be dead certain that it's only a matter of time before it happens.
 
IADCA
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:50 pm

VSMUT wrote:
FlyRow wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

I really don't. I see it as a way of sneaking euro-business class seating onto 9-hour flights.

But you can't deny that going for the A320/A321neo offers a way more compelling option to cover for future uncertainties, something they won't be able to do with the 737MAX.


And the proof is the other way round.
Look at Aer Lingus, TAP Portugal, SAS for example introducing a proper C-class on it's A321LR, being used on EU flights as well.


For now, that is. You can be dead certain that it's only a matter of time before it happens.


I really don't think so. They'd lose all premium bookings on any TATL routes on which they ran a Euro "business" cabin. It would kill the economics of TATL, as that product would be significantly worse than even the recliner style (US domestic) premium cabins and you couldn't charge anything approaching a business fare. And it wouldn't entirely be their decision: DL would go nuts if JV routes were suddenly being flown on planes with essentially no premium product offered.
 
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PW100
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:28 pm

While I've been sceptical towards some here with regards to KLM operating A320 series (since I think they brought incorrect and some even invalid reasons), I don't think it is out of the question. Here's why:

Beyond some of the good reasons already mentioned (such as fleet simplification with AF) I think especially the A321 series offers extremely good value for KLM. With AMS airport slot constrained, I do not see KLM going to above 6 daily departure/arrival banks (or waives as some call them). I even expect them to concentrate their main connecting schedules on a five-bank system (with an evening sixth bank more concentrating on O&D). With future growth in mind, then many routes become suitable for 321 capacity levels. Here I think the 321 has much more to offer than a MAX-9 or 10 for KLM in this respect.

Further, the 321XLR would be well suited for many MEA routes (Middle-East and Africa), with everything to the African equator within range. Routes like EBB and KGL would be a nice fit for such an aircraft (which today are served as a triangle service with A332) with the extra cargo capacity the XLR offers by virtue of its intergral RCT (Rear Centre Tank, in stead of 3 ACTs eating up valuable baggage/cargo space). These then can all become direct flights, with no need for triangling anymore.

I also expect the North American market to defragment, where A321XLR would be suitable for many east-coast routes. KLM would like to have double (or even multiple) dailies to many important N-A markets, and the 321XLR can make that happen. Either on their own, or in combination with the 787.

But then again, KLM has made the 737NG operation working perfectly for them, and a -8/9/10 Max would slip into that role like a custom made glove. So I really have no idea where this will be going.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:43 pm

keesje wrote:

As if nothing happened. (the Transavia article is pre grounding too). I don't see KLM selecting the second best aircraft, even recertified.

I guess they were lucky not to order the MAX over the last 8 years (why?) so they can now take the best decision given the new situation.

KLM has nothing against more Airbusses in their fleet if they provide the best value.

Image
https://www.airhistory.net/photographer ... ard-Helmer


Let’s say that KLM would place an order today of 30 A320neo’s and A321neo’s, a total of 60 aircraft. How long would it take for KLM to receive their first one?
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:05 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:

As if nothing happened. (the Transavia article is pre grounding too). I don't see KLM selecting the second best aircraft, even recertified.

I guess they were lucky not to order the MAX over the last 8 years (why?) so they can now take the best decision given the new situation.

KLM has nothing against more Airbusses in their fleet if they provide the best value.

Image
https://www.airhistory.net/photographer ... ard-Helmer


Let’s say that KLM would place an order today of 30 A320neo’s and A321neo’s, a total of 60 aircraft. How long would it take for KLM to receive their first one?


I would say just A321XLR's (12 by 2025?) Reshuffle, use 737-800 and E fleet for the rest. Until Boeing comes up with something good and Airbus has responded, then decide what to do for the next 20 years.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:12 pm

keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:

As if nothing happened. (the Transavia article is pre grounding too). I don't see KLM selecting the second best aircraft, even recertified.

I guess they were lucky not to order the MAX over the last 8 years (why?) so they can now take the best decision given the new situation.

KLM has nothing against more Airbusses in their fleet if they provide the best value.

Image
https://www.airhistory.net/photographer ... ard-Helmer


Let’s say that KLM would place an order today of 30 A320neo’s and A321neo’s, a total of 60 aircraft. How long would it take for KLM to receive their first one?


I would say just A321XLR's (12 by 2025?) Reshuffle, use 737-800 and E fleet for the rest. Until Boeing comes up with something good and Airbus has responded, then decide what to do for the next 20 years.


And would the A321XLR’s do flights in Europe or would they fly to destinations like KJFK and TNCM, (i.e. long haul flights)?
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:23 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:

Let’s say that KLM would place an order today of 30 A320neo’s and A321neo’s, a total of 60 aircraft. How long would it take for KLM to receive their first one?


I would say just A321XLR's (12 by 2025?) Reshuffle, use 737-800 and E fleet for the rest. Until Boeing comes up with something good and Airbus has responded, then decide what to do for the next 20 years.


And would the A321XLR’s do flights in Europe or would they fly to destinations like KJFK and TNCM, (i.e. long haul flights)?


With the A310 and 767 they did both, on the same day. An early morning rotation and medium long haul in the end of morning long haul wave.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:52 pm

keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:

I would say just A321XLR's (12 by 2025?) Reshuffle, use 737-800 and E fleet for the rest. Until Boeing comes up with something good and Airbus has responded, then decide what to do for the next 20 years.


And would the A321XLR’s do flights in Europe or would they fly to destinations like KJFK and TNCM, (i.e. long haul flights)?


With the A310 and 767 they did both, on the same day. An early morning rotation and medium long haul in the end of morning long haul wave.


So we will still have to wait 10 years for a real 737 replacement? :o :(

And would the A321XLR do routes like EHAM - LIRF? I don’t think so.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:32 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:

And would the A321XLR’s do flights in Europe or would they fly to destinations like KJFK and TNCM, (i.e. long haul flights)?


With the A310 and 767 they did both, on the same day. An early morning rotation and medium long haul in the end of morning long haul wave.


So we will still have to wait 10 years for a real 737 replacement? :o :(

And would the A321XLR do routes like EHAM - LIRF? I don’t think so.


The oldest 737-800/-900s could let go while A321XLR's come in..

LIRF? A310/767 used to be used on CDG, LHR..

If you would need XLR's with WBC, seatcount would be under 200. Apart from US East coast, Middle East and Africa would be markets where it could be mixed with 787s, depending on demand.

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Asiaflyer
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:40 am

seahawk wrote:
ArjenterAvest wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.

BOC avaition just ordered 28 A320neo with delivery 2022-2024, so looks like slots are available within a reasonable time frame.
Airbus on the other hand doesn't have to bend over with its large orderbook and superior product, so Boeing might well win the KLM order on lower price.
 
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seahawk
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:06 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:
ArjenterAvest wrote:
I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.

BOC avaition just ordered 28 A320neo with delivery 2022-2024, so looks like slots are available within a reasonable time frame.
Airbus on the other hand doesn't have to bend over with its large orderbook and superior product, so Boeing might well win the KLM order on lower price.


I would say, it is another 28 slots no longer available.
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:34 pm

seahawk wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.

BOC avaition just ordered 28 A320neo with delivery 2022-2024, so looks like slots are available within a reasonable time frame.
Airbus on the other hand doesn't have to bend over with its large orderbook and superior product, so Boeing might well win the KLM order on lower price.


I would say, it is another 28 slots no longer available.

I fully agree, but my point was that slots are available before 2026 even if the orderbook is huge.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:34 pm

PW100 wrote:
With future growth in mind, then many routes become suitable for 321 capacity levels. Here I think the 321 has much more to offer than a MAX-9 or 10 for KLM in this respect.
The A321 actually isn't that much larger than the 737-10. The advantage vs the MAX-9 is significant, less so vs the -10. The biggest advantage the A321 has over the MAX-10 is range, but within Europe this is not really an issue.

PW100 wrote:
Further, the 321XLR would be well suited for many MEA routes (Middle-East and Africa), with everything to the African equator within range. Routes like EBB and KGL would be a nice fit for such an aircraft (which today are served as a triangle service with A332) with the extra cargo capacity the XLR offers by virtue of its intergral RCT (Rear Centre Tank, in stead of 3 ACTs eating up valuable baggage/cargo space). These then can all become direct flights, with no need for triangling anymore.

While the A321XLR can indeed reach cities like EBB and KGL, it can't with full cargo load I don't think. Especially with the huge packs of luggage African people often travel with. For these cities triangling with the A330 (or 789) actually imakes sense.

PW100 wrote:
I also expect the North American market to defragment, where A321XLR would be suitable for many east-coast routes. KLM would like to have double (or even multiple) dailies to many important N-A markets, and the 321XLR can make that happen. Either on their own, or in combination with the 787.

Where would KL find room at AMS for these additional frequencies As you mention yourself:
PW100 wrote:
With AMS airport slot constrained
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:54 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:
I fully agree, but my point was that slots are available before 2026 even if the orderbook is huge.


Are you talking about BOC or are you talking about Airbus’ delivery slots? I.e. if KLM would order the A320neo/A321neo directly from Airbus, would they get it before 2026?
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
ArjenterAvest
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What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:36 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
I fully agree, but my point was that slots are available before 2026 even if the orderbook is huge.


Are you talking about BOC or are you talking about Airbus’ delivery slots? I.e. if KLM would order the A320neo/A321neo directly from Airbus, would they get it before 2026?

I am pretty sure they would. There might be some clients willing to postpone their slots a bit if offered some sort of compensation.

One will never know what is going on behind the scenes. Only Airbus in this case has the full picture.


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mjoelnir
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:19 pm

frigatebird wrote:
PW100 wrote:
With future growth in mind, then many routes become suitable for 321 capacity levels. Here I think the 321 has much more to offer than a MAX-9 or 10 for KLM in this respect.
The A321 actually isn't that much larger than the 737-10. The advantage vs the MAX-9 is significant, less so vs the -10. The biggest advantage the A321 has over the MAX-10 is range, but within Europe this is not really an issue.


You forget some of the differences. The A321 has superior payload capabilities and the 737-10 has first to show comparable runway performance. OEW of the MAX seems to creep nearer to the corresponding Airbus A320 family version. The OEW for a A321neo is 50.1 t. The A321neo is more versatile, if you need the range you add it.

The 737-8 OEW, is about 45 t. The difference between the 737-800 and 737-900ER is 3.2 t and the 737-10 should be heavier than the 737-9 let us say 1 t.
Added up that makes 45 + 3.2 + 1 equals 49.2 t. Not much difference to the slightly bigger A321neo.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:09 pm

I think people are conflating a few different questions. I don’t think there is a single answer for what KL will replace their 737 fleet with.
- Replacement of the 737NG - the oldest is 20 years. Replacement is not yet urgent, but needs to be considered, due to lead times. KLM has absolutely nothing to loose by waiting for Boeing to have the MAX certified again or to offer the 737 replacement.
- Growth at AMS will be through adding more seats to each flight. Boeing can’t offer a solution to this problem right now, but Airbus can’t deliver A321s in huge numbers quickly either. In the meantime KLM will have to focus on yield and load factor to grow profitability, rather than passenger numbers.
- US and African destinations for while the XLR seems ideal. This is a separate question to the NG replacement IMHO. To introduce these routes other frequencies would have to be cut, so I don’t see an XLR order without an A321 order, to allow E75/E90/73G to be upguaged. Again whatever Boeing offers in the MoM market might be ideal for this.

It’s worth remembering that AF/KL have 60+ A220 on order. These are intended for AF, but KL might like what they see. My feeling is that they are a little small for AMS with the slot situation to replace 73G. I suspect the KL fleet strategy will evolve to look more like BA, with a focus on the larger single aisle aircraft and “misusing” long-haul configured wodebodies where the premium, passenger or cargo demand exists.

I don’t think there is a compelling argument for either the NEO or MAX considering the operational, training and maintenance abilities of the AF/KL group. As a group they operate all 4 likely candidates in the E2, A220, A320 and 737.
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
ArjenterAvest wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Ordering the MAX right now is clever. We knew from the time it flew that it is competitive in economics and you will probably never get a higher discount from Boeing.

I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.


Delivery slots will be as difficult for the MAX. This grounding, reduced production, production stop and than the ramp up, will have moved all deliveries to the right on the time scale and not only to the tune of month but it will be years. To imagine, that you will be able to get a 737-10 for example faster than a standard A321neo, is wishful thinking. There is one thing that could save the day for the availability of the MAX, massive cancellations.
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:04 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
I fully agree, but my point was that slots are available before 2026 even if the orderbook is huge.


Are you talking about BOC or are you talking about Airbus’ delivery slots? I.e. if KLM would order the A320neo/A321neo directly from Airbus, would they get it before 2026?


Also, what's keeping AF-KLM from going the SAS-route? Ordering NEOs directly and leasing. There are lessors with non-placed NEOs with still some 2021-2022-2023 availability.

I expect that the delivery of a new MAX will also not be much quicker with the halted production and delivery backlog.

Cheers! :wave:
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:44 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:

Also, what's keeping AF-KLM from going the SAS-route? Ordering NEOs directly and leasing. There are lessors with non-placed NEOs with still some 2021-2022-2023 availability.


I am also wondering about that, and I don’t think there is something that keeps them from going the SAS route. It would be good if they would go that route.

[quote=“LifelinerOne”]

I expect that the delivery of a new MAX will also not be much quicker with the halted production and delivery backlog.[/quote]

Maybe I’m exaggerating a lot, but the delivery of a MAX could possibly take even longer than the delivery of a neo.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:48 pm

mjoelnir wrote:

There is one thing that could save the day for the availability of the MAX, massive cancellations.


I don’t see that happening.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:23 pm

frigatebird wrote:
PW100 wrote:
With future growth in mind, then many routes become suitable for 321 capacity levels. Here I think the 321 has much more to offer than a MAX-9 or 10 for KLM in this respect.
The A321 actually isn't that much larger than the 737-10. The advantage vs the MAX-9 is significant, less so vs the -10. The biggest advantage the A321 has over the MAX-10 is range, but within Europe this is not really an issue.

PW100 wrote:
Further, the 321XLR would be well suited for many MEA routes (Middle-East and Africa), with everything to the African equator within range. Routes like EBB and KGL would be a nice fit for such an aircraft (which today are served as a triangle service with A332) with the extra cargo capacity the XLR offers by virtue of its intergral RCT (Rear Centre Tank, in stead of 3 ACTs eating up valuable baggage/cargo space). These then can all become direct flights, with no need for triangling anymore.

While the A321XLR can indeed reach cities like EBB and KGL, it can't with full cargo load I don't think. Especially with the huge packs of luggage African people often travel with. For these cities triangling with the A330 (or 789) actually imakes sense.


The A321 is far superior to the 737MAX in terms of payload and cargo opportunity.
A 737 can only be handloaded with small boxes. A321s can take containers and pallets.

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airbuster
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:58 pm

The only Airbus rumor I’ve heard internally is that the KL morning LHR flight on the A330 might be coming back....but as said nothing substantial. However if true it would indicate a need for capacity up gauge on European sectors.
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seahawk
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:08 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

There is one thing that could save the day for the availability of the MAX, massive cancellations.


I don’t see that happening.


Massive not but I would be surprised if it won´t amount to 200 planes.
 
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seahawk
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:57 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:
ArjenterAvest wrote:
I doubt so, Dutch media had the MAX disaster covered on a regular basis. If they would order it the media would be all over it.

Apart from that I am leaning to the opinion that for the AF/KLM group as a whole the benefit of fleet simplicity will prevail. Sure with the existing order for the AF part in mind Airbus will be happy to apply a high discount in this case as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.


Delivery slots will be as difficult for the MAX. This grounding, reduced production, production stop and than the ramp up, will have moved all deliveries to the right on the time scale and not only to the tune of month but it will be years. To imagine, that you will be able to get a 737-10 for example faster than a standard A321neo, is wishful thinking. There is one thing that could save the day for the availability of the MAX, massive cancellations.


As the NEO has still be racking up more orders in 2019, the backlog has grown, which it has not for the MAX. To bring matters in perspective all grounded MAX today, are just more then 50% of the firm order advantage of the NEO.
 
ArjenterAvest
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:17 pm

I wonder how many open production slots the leasing companies still hold in the relative near future?



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Momo1435
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:19 pm

The Jet Airways collapse created 200+ cancellations for the MAX and there are other airlines that went bust in the last 2 years which have also opened up production slots from leasing companies. Obviously a lot of these cancellations have been eaten up by the production slow down and now full stop. It depends on how long the shut down will last on how many slots will remain open.

And even after the RTS there will be plenty of customers that will be rescheduling their deliveries as not all airlines are going to add more planes then they would have done in a regular year. So it's obvious there will be more available production slots on top of the white tails that Boeing has already in storage right now. And it's not like KLM is going to replace all of their 50+ 737NG straight away, the youngest has just entered the fleet. If for starters it's just to replace the remaining 737-700s and maybe the oldest 737-800s they won't need a very large order anyway. They will also have an option to bring in some NTU 737 MAX that will later will be moved to Transavia to be replaced with new production 737-10.

The problem with a quick transfer to the neo right now is that early slots will be expensive, which comes on top of the extra costs of bringing in a fully new type versus a new version of an existing plane. Even if the MAX 2.0 will need more training for pilots then the MAX 1.0 would have needed. And the longer the MAX will stay grounded it will only result in higher purchase and lease prices for the neo. This is not a good position for AF-KLM to be in right now, they did miss the boat and are now caught in issues that they have now control over.
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:36 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
This is not a good position for AF-KLM to be in right now, they did miss the boat and are now caught in issues that they have now control over.

I would say much they're in a much better position than airlines that ordered the MAX: conservative airplane purchase policy paying off. They did miss the boat by not ordering the A32X before on more favorable terms than available now, but in hindsight probably every MAX customer would have preferred that as well.
 
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Momo1435
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Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:24 am

If all MAX customers would have ordered the neo they would still have no new planes, as Airbus would have a full backlog until 2035. And because everybody would be ordering the terms would not have been better but much worse then now as Airbus would be able ask whatever price they wanted for the neo as there would be no competition.
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