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Momo1435
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:19 pm

The Jet Airways collapse created 200+ cancellations for the MAX and there are other airlines that went bust in the last 2 years which have also opened up production slots from leasing companies. Obviously a lot of these cancellations have been eaten up by the production slow down and now full stop. It depends on how long the shut down will last on how many slots will remain open.

And even after the RTS there will be plenty of customers that will be rescheduling their deliveries as not all airlines are going to add more planes then they would have done in a regular year. So it's obvious there will be more available production slots on top of the white tails that Boeing has already in storage right now. And it's not like KLM is going to replace all of their 50+ 737NG straight away, the youngest has just entered the fleet. If for starters it's just to replace the remaining 737-700s and maybe the oldest 737-800s they won't need a very large order anyway. They will also have an option to bring in some NTU 737 MAX that will later will be moved to Transavia to be replaced with new production 737-10.

The problem with a quick transfer to the neo right now is that early slots will be expensive, which comes on top of the extra costs of bringing in a fully new type versus a new version of an existing plane. Even if the MAX 2.0 will need more training for pilots then the MAX 1.0 would have needed. And the longer the MAX will stay grounded it will only result in higher purchase and lease prices for the neo. This is not a good position for AF-KLM to be in right now, they did miss the boat and are now caught in issues that they have now control over.
 
Jetty
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:36 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
This is not a good position for AF-KLM to be in right now, they did miss the boat and are now caught in issues that they have now control over.

I would say much they're in a much better position than airlines that ordered the MAX: conservative airplane purchase policy paying off. They did miss the boat by not ordering the A32X before on more favorable terms than available now, but in hindsight probably every MAX customer would have preferred that as well.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:24 am

If all MAX customers would have ordered the neo they would still have no new planes, as Airbus would have a full backlog until 2035. And because everybody would be ordering the terms would not have been better but much worse then now as Airbus would be able ask whatever price they wanted for the neo as there would be no competition.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:03 am

seahawk wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Delivery slots and price are the problems for a NEO order imho. Even if Airbus would match the price of the MAX (which imho they won´t as Boeing needs a big deal much more than they do) they would not have the delivery slots available in a realistic time frame.


Delivery slots will be as difficult for the MAX. This grounding, reduced production, production stop and than the ramp up, will have moved all deliveries to the right on the time scale and not only to the tune of month but it will be years. To imagine, that you will be able to get a 737-10 for example faster than a standard A321neo, is wishful thinking. There is one thing that could save the day for the availability of the MAX, massive cancellations.


As the NEO has still be racking up more orders in 2019, the backlog has grown, which it has not for the MAX. To bring matters in perspective all grounded MAX today, are just more then 50% of the firm order advantage of the NEO.


Yes, but production has been slow, 42 frames a month. Will stop completely now and than has to start and ramp up again. With RTS there will not be a 57 a month production rate from the start. 400 undelivered frames, some 100+ frames not produced last year and every month without production will add 57 to that number (rate planed for middle of last year). In March there will be at least 270 not produced frames (compared to planed). If production starts in April again, the first date I could imagine it will start slow.

Meanwhile Airbus has delivered 640+ frames last year and will do somewhere near 700 frames this year. Airbus will producing frames while Boeing will fall further and further behind planed deliveries.
 
VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:07 am

Momo1435 wrote:
The Jet Airways collapse created 200+ cancellations for the MAX


They were spread out over an awful long period though. The initial 150 aircraft they ordered stretched all the way out to 2026.
 
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seahawk
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:08 am

Yet, Airbus still has more firm orders that equal about 2 years of production at Airbus.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:09 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
And it's not like KLM is going to replace all of their 50+ 737NG straight away, the youngest has just entered the fleet. If for starters it's just to replace the remaining 737-700s and maybe the oldest 737-800s they won't need a very large order anyway.


KLM has 16 73G’s. So they could replace them with 16 A320neo’s. But the 32N has more seating capacity than the 73G. So I don’t know if they could just order less, or if they really need 16 32N’s.

Replacing the oldest 738’s:

On airfleets.net you can see that KLM ordered a lot of 738’s, especially in 2000 and in 2001. If KLM would replace all the 738’s that were delivered in 1999, 2000, and 2001 you would already be talking about 15 aircraft. I think KLM will choose the 32Q instead of the 32N to replace the oldest 738’s. For the 73G replacement they can choose the 32N.

So if they would order 16 32N’s and 15 32Q’s it would be a total of 31 aircraft. Fun fact: that is a little bit more than half of the KLM 737 NG fleet.
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LifelinerOne
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:47 pm

KLM is not going to order A320neos to replace the B737-700s as they already said during the Paris Air Show order press-conference that the first batch of 15 E195-E2s will replace the B737-700s in the network. KLM's B737-700s are outfitted with 132 seats and the new E195-E2s will also have 132 seats. So capacity-wise a perfect match. The remaining 6 E195-E2s will be used for, either expansion (depending on the slot situation at Schiphol), or to replace the oldest E190s or E175s if they see a need to upgauge capacity.

With the B737-700 replacement covered and with a few last brand new B737-800s delivered recently, KLM has bought itself time for a decision to replace the B737-800s/-900s.

Cheers! :wave:
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
FB330
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:38 pm

^^^ What Lifelinerone said....

There has been lots of debate about whether the 195s are replacing the 700s or not. They have to be. The first of these come in around 2021 (I think), which is also when the leases of the 700 expire, so unless a new NB order exists that we don't know about (or they plan on buying second hand), these 195s will be replacing the 700s. The remainder will be used to replace first gen E-Jets or growth.

What this thread is really talking about is 800/900 replacement. And its the vintage to BXT that are the oldest at 18-20 years. The rest have plenty of life in them and are either fairly new or brand new. Even BXA to BXT can soldier on for a few years so I don't see an urgent need for an order.

I'd prefer to see the A321 NEO ordered but that is purely because today I would feel nervous about boarding a MAX on the airline I fly the most with.
 
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reidar76
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:17 pm

I think KLM is the only EU carrier with the 737-900 in operation? If KLM orders the 737 MAX, it will be the only legacy EU carrier with the MAX in service? (Looking at the 737 MAX customer list for the EU, I can only see LCC and charter airlines.)

The only way I can see KLM ordering the 737 MAX is if it is offered at give-away price.
 
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seahawk
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:25 pm

IAG also ordered the MAX.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:37 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
KLM is not going to order A320neos to replace the B737-700s as they already said during the Paris Air Show order press-conference that the first batch of 15 E195-E2s will replace the B737-700s in the network. KLM's B737-700s are outfitted with 132 seats and the new E195-E2s will also have 132 seats. So capacity-wise a perfect match. The remaining 6 E195-E2s will be used for, either expansion (depending on the slot situation at Schiphol), or to replace the oldest E190s or E175s if they see a need to upgauge capacity.

With the B737-700 replacement covered and with a few last brand new B737-800s delivered recently, KLM has bought itself time for a decision to replace the B737-800s/-900s.

Cheers! :wave:

Since the KLM has assured the cabin crew union that KLM Cityhopper won't take over any KLM 737 operations with the KLMC E195-E2s it's pretty obvious that the KLMC E195-E2 will not replace the 737-700. Which is also in line with all the reports on the E-195-E2 order. So I think your statement on the press conference is incorrect.
 
VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:20 pm

reidar76 wrote:
I think KLM is the only EU carrier with the 737-900 in operation? If KLM orders the 737 MAX, it will be the only legacy EU carrier with the MAX in service? (Looking at the 737 MAX customer list for the EU, I can only see LCC and charter airlines.)


LOT and Tarom will operate it as well.


Momo1435 wrote:
Since the KLM has assured the cabin crew union that KLM Cityhopper won't take over any KLM 737 operations with the KLMC E195-E2s it's pretty obvious that the KLMC E195-E2 will not replace the 737-700.


You are taking that way too literally. Besides, the E-jets regularly replace the 737s when demand isn't there or fluctuates.
To me it looks more like the E195E2s will replace the 737-700s, while more mainline narrowbodies (737MAX or A320) will eventually be added, meaning no mainline positions will be eliminated.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:51 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
reidar76 wrote:
I think KLM is the only EU carrier with the 737-900 in operation? If KLM orders the 737 MAX, it will be the only legacy EU carrier with the MAX in service? (Looking at the 737 MAX customer list for the EU, I can only see LCC and charter airlines.)

The only way I can see KLM ordering the 737 MAX is if it is offered at give-away price.


Icelandair has 737MAX including 737-9.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:53 pm

VSMUT wrote:
You are taking that way too literally. Besides, the E-jets regularly replace the 737s when demand isn't there or fluctuates.
To me it looks more like the E195E2s will replace the 737-700s, while more mainline narrowbodies (737MAX or A320) will eventually be added, meaning no mainline positions will be eliminated.

That's actually the biggest fear of the union, even if it's a temporary shift from KLM to KLMC. They also know that KLM currently doesn't have any mainline narrowbodies on order and that it can take some time before anything new will be added to the fleet. If the KLMC E195-E2s will replace the KLM 737-700s it will mean less work for the KLM 737 cabin crews for a couple of years. These crews cannot be simply transferred to KLMC for a couple of years because of the labor agreements. The 737-700 currently make up 30% of the mainline narrowbody fleet at KLM, so it will not be just a small adjustment between KLM and KLMC if the -700 will be replaced by the E195-E2. The unions will not accept this and rightfully so.

It's simply not true that the E195-E2 will replace the 737-700s at KLM.

I think that the plan before the MAX grounding would have been to order some early lease or NTU slots for Transavia and transfer some of their 737-800s to KLM mainline as a replacement for the 737-700 for which is has already been decided that they are out. Right now the most likely scenario is that the 737-700 will stay a bit longer then planned, even though it will need an extra cabin crew member then before the last labor agreement, making it less economical to use. Unless they find a temporary solution, they might be looking at 2nd hand 737-800s, even thought there are less available in the market because of the MAX grounding.
 
LJ
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Bostrom wrote:
Amsterdam-Berlin and Amsterdam-Frankfurt are other routes where KLM has not as much competition from trains as could have had if there had been trains with a reasonable speed in the Netherlands.


You may be correct for Amsterdam - Berlin, but for Amsterdam - Frankfurt you're incorrect. I work for a large financial institution and we use the train more often than the plane on this route (much cheaper and it's doable for a daytrip). Not to mention that many travel to Frankfurt the day before as being on time for a 09:00AM meeting at the ECB is very difficult unless you're willing to gamble on the 07:50 flight to Frankfurt.

airbuster wrote:
The only Airbus rumor I’ve heard internally is that the KL morning LHR flight on the A330 might be coming back....but as said nothing substantial. However if true it would indicate a need for capacity up gauge on European sectors.


I would be surprised (unless for cargo). Business people go to LCY as that's where the usually want to be.

inkjet7 wrote:
How about the possibility KLM already ordered planes either at their OEM or leasing companies but these orders remain undisclosed?


AF/KL would have violated the disclosure requirements of both the AEX and SEC. They could have made their choice already, but they cannot order nor sign lease agreements without disclosing it within a short timeframe. The outcome of this decision is material enough to be disclosed straight away.
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:18 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
You are taking that way too literally. Besides, the E-jets regularly replace the 737s when demand isn't there or fluctuates.
To me it looks more like the E195E2s will replace the 737-700s, while more mainline narrowbodies (737MAX or A320) will eventually be added, meaning no mainline positions will be eliminated.

That's actually the biggest fear of the union, even if it's a temporary shift from KLM to KLMC. They also know that KLM currently doesn't have any mainline narrowbodies on order and that it can take some time before anything new will be added to the fleet. If the KLMC E195-E2s will replace the KLM 737-700s it will mean less work for the KLM 737 cabin crews for a couple of years. These crews cannot be simply transferred to KLMC for a couple of years because of the labor agreements. The 737-700 currently make up 30% of the mainline narrowbody fleet at KLM, so it will not be just a small adjustment between KLM and KLMC if the -700 will be replaced by the E195-E2. The unions will not accept this and rightfully so.

It's simply not true that the E195-E2 will replace the 737-700s at KLM.

I think that the plan before the MAX grounding would have been to order some early lease or NTU slots for Transavia and transfer some of their 737-800s to KLM mainline as a replacement for the 737-700 for which is has already been decided that they are out. Right now the most likely scenario is that the 737-700 will stay a bit longer then planned, even though it will need an extra cabin crew member then before the last labor agreement, making it less economical to use. Unless they find a temporary solution, they might be looking at 2nd hand 737-800s, even thought there are less available in the market because of the MAX grounding.


Well, you can say that, but the reality is different. In the sidelines of the press-conference Elbers himself said that they will use the E195-E2s to replace the B737-700s coming off their leases. KLM mainline has no new planes coming in in 2021. None. KLM cityhopper does. And they will not replace their E190s, because then we are talking about a capacity reduction and that is definitely not in the plans. Also, the E190 fleet is then on average 10 years old, too young for retirement.

It will probably mean that KLC will get new routes assigned to them, but overall the result will be the same. The capacity of 15 E195-E2s will be used to cover the gap that the retirement of the B737-700s creates.

Cheers! :wave:
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
zoek34
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:54 pm

Another thing that I haven't seen yet in this thread (or missed it):

Would it be a possibility that HV will order the MAX and when delivery started that the (owned) NG planes would 'transfer' to KLM?
 
IWMBH
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:44 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
You are taking that way too literally. Besides, the E-jets regularly replace the 737s when demand isn't there or fluctuates.
To me it looks more like the E195E2s will replace the 737-700s, while more mainline narrowbodies (737MAX or A320) will eventually be added, meaning no mainline positions will be eliminated.

That's actually the biggest fear of the union, even if it's a temporary shift from KLM to KLMC. They also know that KLM currently doesn't have any mainline narrowbodies on order and that it can take some time before anything new will be added to the fleet. If the KLMC E195-E2s will replace the KLM 737-700s it will mean less work for the KLM 737 cabin crews for a couple of years. These crews cannot be simply transferred to KLMC for a couple of years because of the labor agreements. The 737-700 currently make up 30% of the mainline narrowbody fleet at KLM, so it will not be just a small adjustment between KLM and KLMC if the -700 will be replaced by the E195-E2. The unions will not accept this and rightfully so.

It's simply not true that the E195-E2 will replace the 737-700s at KLM.

I think that the plan before the MAX grounding would have been to order some early lease or NTU slots for Transavia and transfer some of their 737-800s to KLM mainline as a replacement for the 737-700 for which is has already been decided that they are out. Right now the most likely scenario is that the 737-700 will stay a bit longer then planned, even though it will need an extra cabin crew member then before the last labor agreement, making it less economical to use. Unless they find a temporary solution, they might be looking at 2nd hand 737-800s, even thought there are less available in the market because of the MAX grounding.


Well, you can say that, but the reality is different. In the sidelines of the press-conference Elbers himself said that they will use the E195-E2s to replace the B737-700s coming off their leases. KLM mainline has no new planes coming in in 2021. None. KLM cityhopper does. And they will not replace their E190s, because then we are talking about a capacity reduction and that is definitely not in the plans. Also, the E190 fleet is then on average 10 years old, too young for retirement.

It will probably mean that KLC will get new routes assigned to them, but overall the result will be the same. The capacity of 15 E195-E2s will be used to cover the gap that the retirement of the B737-700s creates.

Cheers! :wave:


I don’t think the unions will agree with this, even if it’s temporarily. Especially because we don’t know when this ‘temporarily’ situation ends because of the compleet lack of orders. I don’t know what is going to replace the -700s short term but no one does, really, until KLM reveals their plans.

Officially KLM is still planning to replace the -700s with -800s. But, because of the shutdown of the production-line and with no -800s entering the second hand markets in large numbers because of the MAX crises we can only wait and see what is the -700 replacement.
 
FB330
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:45 am

I still stand by my opinion that 195s will come in and 700s will go out. Whether anyone explicity says one is relacing another from the inside is a different matter.

So, let me ask the question in another way. If the 195s are NOT replacing the 700s, and given KLM aren't suddenly getting loads of new slots for growth, we must assume they are replacing something, so what are they replacing? Has anyone got any information to say 190s (the obvious alternative candidate) are leaving the fleet next year?
 
inkjet7
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:18 am

FB330 wrote:
I still stand by my opinion that 195s will come in and 700s will go out. Whether anyone explicity says one is relacing another from the inside is a different matter.

So, let me ask the question in another way. If the 195s are NOT replacing the 700s, and given KLM aren't suddenly getting loads of new slots for growth, we must assume they are replacing something, so what are they replacing? Has anyone got any information to say 190s (the obvious alternative candidate) are leaving the fleet next year?


Why would KLM replace 737-700's with planes having less seats when operating from a slot restricted airport?
KL-C has looked at configuring their E190's with two more rows of seats, but this was rejected because they would need a third CA for a maximum of only 8 extra passengers. So they decided to replace E190's and possibly even E75L's with E195-E2's. The 190's are on relatively short lease contracts and expensive to maintain. Having 32 extra 'seats per slot' is an attractive way to increase capacity.

https://embraer.com/global/en/news?slug ... r-aircraft
“Delivering 30% lower emissions when compared to KLM’s current E190s, yet still providing a further 32 seats, the E195-E2 will simultaneously increase capacity for KLM at slot constrained Schiphol Airport, while also delivering huge reductions in emissions.”
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:02 am

When will the E170’s leave the fleet? I’m pretty sure when the E2 enters service at KLC we will still have the E190, but I’m not so sure about the E170.

KLM is already beginning with their 737 replacement, the E195-E2’s are replacing the 737-700’s at KLM. They only need to order a 737-800/900 replacement, but we don’t know when KLM will place an order for that. The E195-E2 order is a sign KLM is starting the 737 replacement.
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Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

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mwhcvt
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:31 am

It’s a duopoly of full size NB you either as an airline choose NEO or Max (currently only the NEO is being delivered with no date yet on the return of the MAX) there is no viable third option as frankly no blue chip airline is taking China seriously and I don’t believe Boeing will jump on a all new NB till at least a year of MAXs back in the sky and production back at strength as to do so would be poison to the MAX for new and top up orders and might cause demand to switch from max to the new offering or even some serious order competitions redone and Airbus now getting that win

As to KL switching to NEO rather than keeping loyalties to the 737 family there really is very little problem for them or any airline to switch some notables in recent history U2 going from all 737 to all A32X, AC the other way although thats questionably right now if they made the right choice

The existing frames still have resale value as to any parts inventory and aircraft related tools etc and pilots retrain all the time for new types so well in not claiming there’s no costs in a type switch it’s not a big barrier to change
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:51 pm

mwhcvt wrote:
It’s a duopoly of full size NB you either as an airline choose NEO or Max (currently only the NEO is being delivered with no date yet on the return of the MAX) there is no viable third option as frankly no blue chip airline is taking China seriously and I don’t believe Boeing will jump on a all new NB till at least a year of MAXs back in the sky and production back at strength as to do so would be poison to the MAX for new and top up orders and might cause demand to switch from max to the new offering or even some serious order competitions redone and Airbus now getting that win

As to KL switching to NEO rather than keeping loyalties to the 737 family there really is very little problem for them or any airline to switch some notables in recent history U2 going from all 737 to all A32X, AC the other way although thats questionably right now if they made the right choice

The existing frames still have resale value as to any parts inventory and aircraft related tools etc and pilots retrain all the time for new types so well in not claiming there’s no costs in a type switch it’s not a big barrier to change


I completely agree with you. The E195-E2 is the 73G replacement, and the E2 was ordered in 2019. I see KLM ordering the A321neo this year. A 738 + 739 replacement is not far away since KLM already ordered the 73G replacement.

This is they way I see it:

Embraer E195-E2 = Boeing 737-700 replacement

Airbus A321neo = Boeing 737-800/900 replacement
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
Jetty
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:42 pm

LJ wrote:
By the time the first MAX would appear (if they would appear at all), everyone would have forgotten about the MAX issues (some ANet members excluded).

Especially after Boeing is again making headlines in Dutch and international press with very damning revelations I seriously doubt this. There is no precedent in the internet-era of any vehicle receiving so much safety related bad press so there's no basis to make a claim about consumer memory as definitive as yours.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:42 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
KLM is already beginning with their 737 replacement, the E195-E2’s are replacing the 737-700’s at KLM.

How do you come to this conclusion? And why do you state it as a fact? The way I read it, the E195-E2’s are not replacing the 737-700’s at KLM. They are intended for growth at KLM Cityhopper, through adding extra frames and by replacing the E190.

https://www.parool.nl/nederland/klm-pla ... ~b6566eba/ (in Dutch).

P.S. Could you please edit your signature again? Your current one uses a lot of screen space, especially with short replies.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:18 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
KLM is already beginning with their 737 replacement, the E195-E2’s are replacing the 737-700’s at KLM.

How do you come to this conclusion? And why do you state it as a fact? The way I read it, the E195-E2’s are not replacing the 737-700’s at KLM.


It IS a fact. If you would read @LifelinerOne’s posts you would see that Pieter Elbers himself said that the E195-E2’s will replace the 737-700 at KLM.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

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MartijnNL
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:34 pm

KLM also said the latest Embraer is meant to let KLM Cityhopper transport more people without increasing the numbers of flights. You don't achieve that goal by replacing 737-700's by E195-E2's. KLM has stated they want to replace the 737-700's by 737-800's.
 
JayBCN
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:44 pm

seahawk wrote:
IAG also ordered the MAX.


No IAG did not order the max. Willie Walsh fired off an LOI or MOU in support of the max when he thought it or Boeing or since-ousted Muilenberg needed it most. It has not been followed up with yet. Muilenberg is no more, and in my opinion the max as we know it is dead. Let’s see what happens with Boeing.

And that announcement by IAG doesnt make any sense as all four IAG airlines are heavy users of a32x. Just came off of a beautiful Vueling flight from LPA to BCN on an A321. Every seat was filled and yet It was a great customer experience. Why play with a winning proven solution?

If KLM orders the max many passengers will simply avoid them .
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:39 pm

JayBCN wrote:

If KLM orders the max many passengers will simply avoid them .


True. I don’t think KLM will order the MAX, the neo is the better way forward in my opinion. That’s not because I’m scared of the MAX. That’s because the operating costs for the neo are lower, and the neo has a lot of other benefits.

@mwhcwt: If I understand you correctly you say that switching to the neo is easy. This can only be partially true if KLM would get discounts from Airbus. If KLM doesn’t get discounts it will be hard for them. And switching to another aircraft manufacturer is never easy.

It seems KLM is in a difficult situation. Not difficult because they never ordered the MAX, but difficult because choosing the neo will mean retraining pilots and cabin crew. The neo or MAX decision is already delayed by 2 years. Is it likely that KLM will decide and order this year?

If the MAX would be better than the neo for KLM they would order the MAX. But that’s not the case in my opinion.

KLM chooses the aircraft that provides them the best value. And that’s the neo in my opinion.
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PW100
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:32 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

If KLM orders the max many passengers will simply avoid them .


True. I don’t think KLM will order the MAX, the neo is the better way forward in my opinion. That’s not because I’m scared of the MAX. That’s because the operating costs for the neo are lower, and the neo has a lot of other benefits.


Admittedly, I have no inside info. But I always thought that he operating trip cost of the 737 (NG) was lower than the A320. Especially on short(er) routes. Since the majority of KLM European routes are within 1000 nm, wouldn't the 737 have lower cost in KLM operation?
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:58 pm

PW100 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

If KLM orders the max many passengers will simply avoid them .


True. I don’t think KLM will order the MAX, the neo is the better way forward in my opinion. That’s not because I’m scared of the MAX. That’s because the operating costs for the neo are lower, and the neo has a lot of other benefits.


Admittedly, I have no inside info. But I always thought that he operating trip cost of the 737 (NG) was lower than the A320. Especially on short(er) routes. Since the majority of KLM European routes are within 1000 nm, wouldn't the 737 have lower cost in KLM operation?


The MAX has lower operating costs on routes like AMS - LHR and AMS - CDG. But on routes that are longer than that the neo has lower operating costs. On routes like AMS - FCO or AMS - BCN the neo has lower operating costs. Also on routes like AMS - FUE the neo has lower operating costs. So the neo would still have lower operating costs than the MAX at KLM.
Last edited by FlyingBlueKLM on Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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sabby
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:58 pm

Even if KLM decide to get A320neo family aircraft, will they get any large number of slots in the next 4-5 years without paying dearly ?
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:04 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:

slots are available before 2026 even if the orderbook is huge.


@sabby: there are slots available before 2025, but I don’t know if they will have to pay a lot of money to get those slots.
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inkjet7
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:51 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
KLM also said the latest Embraer is meant to let KLM Cityhopper transport more people without increasing the numbers of flights. You don't achieve that goal by replacing 737-700's by E195-E2's. KLM has stated they want to replace the 737-700's by 737-800's.


And they did exactly this replacing the first two.

https://news.klm.com/klm-cityhopper-ord ... -aircraft/
I think this settles it once and for all.

https://www.airfranceklm.com/sites/defa ... y_2019.pdf
Look at slide 13. The E2's are to be operated by KLM Cityhopper, not the mainline.

Another article:
https://aeronauticsonline.com/klm-cityh ... r-e195-e2/
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:09 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The MAX has lower operating costs on routes like AMS - LHR and AMS - CDG. But on routes that are longer than that the neo has lower operating costs. On routes like AMS - FCO or AMS - BCN the neo has lower operating costs. Also on routes like AMS - FUE the neo has lower operating costs. So the neo would still have lower operating costs than the MAX at KLM.


What’s the source of your data on this?
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:19 pm

VSMUT wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What is better? MAX is lower operating cost.


Extremely doubtful. The 737MAX was always a compromised aircraft, in particular when it comes to the engines. The MAX has sub-optimal engines, so operating costs can be expected to be somewhat higher.


@hOMSaR This post by @VSMUT. I didn’t search for a news article, I will search for that right now. Another post on A.net that I can’t find said that the MAX has lower operating costs on really short routes, and the neo has lower operating costs than the MAX on average length European routes.

Edit: I have found an article about it: https://airinsight.com/wp-content/uploa ... 052016.pdf

As one would expect, the 737 MAX 8 outperforms the A320neo in CASM (while the latter wins for trip cost), while the 737 MAX 9 lags the A321neo (winning a pyrrhic victory for trip costs).


The 737 MAX 8 outperforms the A320neo in CASM, but the A320neo still wins in trip costs, and the A321neo outperforms the 737 MAX 9. The A320neo is not a 738 and 739 replacement for KLM because the max seating capacity is 180, and KLM’s 738 has 186 seats. So if they would order Airbus they would probably order the A321neo.
Last edited by FlyingBlueKLM on Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:39 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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TSA125
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:23 pm

Why did KL order the A330s in the first place? Could they not have utilized the 772 (or, indeed 77W) on those missions?
No not that TSA.
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:49 pm

TSA125 wrote:
Why did KL order the A330s in the first place? Could they not have utilized the 772 (or, indeed 77W) on those missions?


The 332s better suited the cargo requirement and range requirements than the 763 they replaced. The 777s were used more on Asia destinations.
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:53 pm

Because in the 911 aftermath they got such a good deal from both A and B that they could not resist. Plus the fact that the 772 would be too big to replace KL’s 763 fleet, the 332 was just a better fit. The 333s arrived much later and partially served as replacement for the last MP 767s.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:54 pm

How much 32Q’s can KLM have in 2025 if they would order this year and would they have to pay a lot of money to get early slots?
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Tavocruz
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:57 am

Momo1435 wrote:
This is not a good position for AF-KLM to be in right now, they did miss the boat and are now caught in issues that they have now control over.

Missed the boat?
I really think they dodged a bullet! They avoided getting stuck in the Max drama like so many airlines are, most probably after having paid the going rates for (the then) desirable aircraft.
Depending on the outcome of the Max saga, KLM could either step away from the Max all together or negotiate dirt cheap prizes with Boeing.
It`s a buyer´s market when it comes to the Max, there`s no real hurry for them delivery slot-wise and yes; they have all the options on the table!
KLM absolutely has control, in my humble opinion.

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Signature

Could you perhaps make your signature smaller / shorter please?
The thread would be unpleasant to read if we all had such long signatures.
Thanks!
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:13 am

TSA125 wrote:
Why did KL order the A330s in the first place? Could they not have utilized the 772 (or, indeed 77W) on those missions?


When you do not need the range or capacity, the A330 does the same job with less cost, both in regards to investment, as well in regards to the running cost including fuel burn.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:47 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
How much 32Q’s can KLM have in 2025 if they would order this year and would they have to pay a lot of money to get early slots?


And how much 737 MAX 8’s can KLM have in 2025 if they would order the MAX?
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:38 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
How much 32Q’s can KLM have in 2025 if they would order this year and would they have to pay a lot of money to get early slots?


And how much 737 MAX 8’s can KLM have in 2025 if they would order the MAX?

You think the Max will be recertified and back in the Air within the next 5 years? :duck:

Seriously, how can anyone even hazard a guess at that without knowing a) when production recommences b) what the initial build rate will be c) how many other orders are cancelled/white tails (eg Jet Airways’)?
 
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:20 am

Bhoy wrote:
You think the Max will be recertified and back in the Air within the next 5 years? :duck:


:lol: I am leaning to the opinion that it won’t.
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mig17
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:59 pm

The slide in the first post on this topic suggest that in a near future, KLM is not really replacing 737 yet. The only short term change is the on order E2 for KLMC designated for KLMC growth.

From there I think that when the 737-700 will leave mainline, they will be replaced by E2 at city with 737-800 and 900 staying longer.

For those 800 and 900, KLM will choose a replacement latrr among all the options at that time : A321neo or max 8/9/10.

Interestingly AF having firmed 60 A223 last mounth may indicate a similare patern. If AF doesn't firm the 60 A220 options, they also could go for A321neo or max 8/9/10 to complete the narrowbody fleet.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:34 pm

mig17 wrote:
The slide in the first post on this topic suggest that in a near future, KLM is not really replacing 737 yet. The only short term change is the on order E2 for KLMC designated for KLMC growth.

From there I think that when the 737-700 will leave mainline, they will be replaced by E2 at city with 737-800 and 900 staying longer.

For those 800 and 900, KLM will choose a replacement latter among all the options at that time : A321neo.


I don’t know if it is a good idea to wait until 2025 or 2030 and then replace the 737s because the A321neo is really popular, it is hard to get, and the MAX has a lot of issues. And the oldest 738’s (1999 - 2001) also need replacement, I have read that on A.net, but there weren’t sources included in the posts.

Is it realistic for KLM to order a few A321neo’s to replace the oldest (1999 - 2001) 738’s?
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Bhoy
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:49 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The slide in the first post on this topic suggest that in a near future, KLM is not really replacing 737 yet. The only short term change is the on order E2 for KLMC designated for KLMC growth.

From there I think that when the 737-700 will leave mainline, they will be replaced by E2 at city with 737-800 and 900 staying longer.

For those 800 and 900, KLM will choose a replacement latter among all the options at that time : A321neo.


I don’t know if it is a good idea to wait until 2025 or 2030 and then replace the 737s because the A321neo is really popular, it is hard to get, and the MAX has a lot of issues. And the oldest 738’s (1999 - 2001) also need replacement, I have read that on A.net, but there weren’t sources included in the posts.

Is it realistic for KLM to order a few A321neo’s to replace the oldest (1999 - 2001) 738’s?

I’m not sure a ‘few’ neo’s make much sense - operationally that could cause problems in case of a last minute Aircraft change for overnighting Flights - ie due to a tech issue a neo being sent on a 737 route, but the crew being scheduled to pick it up the following morning only being qualified on the A32S... if the whole narrow body fleet is all 737s, it doesn’t matter which Aircraft gets subbed in, as the crew can fly any of them.

There’s a certain fleet size when having both types can make sense, as you could have a spare of each type to cover technical issues standing by at AMS, but whether or not a ‘few’ neos reach that critical mass is another question.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:04 pm

Bhoy wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The slide in the first post on this topic suggest that in a near future, KLM is not really replacing 737 yet. The only short term change is the on order E2 for KLMC designated for KLMC growth.

From there I think that when the 737-700 will leave mainline, they will be replaced by E2 at city with 737-800 and 900 staying longer.

For those 800 and 900, KLM will choose a replacement latter among all the options at that time : A321neo.


I don’t know if it is a good idea to wait until 2025 or 2030 and then replace the 737s because the A321neo is really popular, it is hard to get, and the MAX has a lot of issues. And the oldest 738’s (1999 - 2001) also need replacement, I have read that on A.net, but there weren’t sources included in the posts.

Is it realistic for KLM to order a few A321neo’s to replace the oldest (1999 - 2001) 738’s?

I’m not sure a ‘few’ neo’s make much sense - operationally that could cause problems in case of a last minute Aircraft change for overnighting Flights - ie due to a tech issue a neo being sent on a 737 route, but the crew being scheduled to pick it up the following morning only being qualified on the A32S... if the whole narrow body fleet is all 737s, it doesn’t matter which Aircraft gets subbed in, as the crew can fly any of them.

There’s a certain fleet size when having both types can make sense, as you could have a spare of each type to cover technical issues standing by at AMS, but whether or not a ‘few’ neos reach that critical mass is another question.


I was talking about 15 - 20 neo’s. All the 738’s from 1999 - 2001 are in total 15 aircraft, they could start by replacing those 15 738’s with 15 A321neo’s.
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