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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:51 pm

Jetty wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Jetty wrote:
You way too easily assume there will be no extra slots for KL in the forseeable future. There will be slots:


@Jetty, please provide us with at least one reliable source that says Schiphol will have slots in the next five years.

I didn't say AMS will have extra slots, I said KL can get extra slots and clearly wrote the reasons why. Of which one you want a source? You want proof airlines go bankrupt, that slottrading is being considered or that the plan is to expand aircraft movements? I'm not going to dig up everything :)


Okay. I think we just disagree on slots in my opinion: you think that there are slots, I think that there are no slots. Or something like that. No problem.

:smile:
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airbuster
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:16 pm

Ok I’m a KLM Airbus fanboy. Period.

That said, could we please stop this thread now? I’m all for freedom of speech but everything has been said and dragged out on here.

Let’s continue when any news comes out.
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MartijnNL
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:22 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The MAX will fly again in late 2020, maybe even early 2021, and without any trust in my opinion.

How do you know?

What do you mean with "without any trust"?
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:31 pm

I think KLM will buy 195E2 and A321s in the coming years. And can buy, overhaul additional young 737-800s as required, until Airbus has A225s or Boeing has FSA-8s.

You would need to be authistic to buy MAX's at this stage.

The 787-9s are twice as heavy and expensive as A321s and for different missions.

A321XLR are very efficient, quiet and useful on shorter flights too. That's the unique combination of capability. And everybody is jumping on them.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:46 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:38 pm

airbuster wrote:
Ok I’m a KLM Airbus fanboy.

If you’re talking about yourself I don’t have anything to say about it, but if you’re talking about me I just want to tell you this: for long-haul I always prefer Boeing over Airbus, but I don’t have any problem being on a KLM A330. For stort to medium-haul I don’t have any problem being on a 737 NG as long as it’s KLM :smile:

@MartijnNL I stated very clearly that it was my opinion, and here’s an article on why the MAXes produced during the grounding will most likely get back in the air in 2021: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/why-y ... ar-BBY2az7

The deliveries of the 737 Max planes that have been built since the grounding will take even longer to get in the air. Boeing has said it anticipates delays in getting those new 737 Max plains in the air will stretch into 2021.

Part of that delay is because the airlines aren't ready to accept hundreds of additional planes at one time. But it is also because the FAA now plans to inspect each aircraft, rather than letting Boeing perform the pre-delivery checks as it has in the past.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:52 pm

keesje wrote:
I think KLM will buy 195E2 and A321s in the coming years. And can buy, overhaul additional young 737-800s as required, until Airbus has A225s or Boeing has FSA-8s.


Even though I agree, I want to mention that Airbus said they are going to consider, not immediately build A225s after the production issues with the A220s have been resolved.

And AF-KLM orders aircraft, not KLM itself as far as I know.
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MartijnNL
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:59 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
@Jetty, please provide us with at least one reliable source that says Schiphol will have slots in the next five years.

If we would ask proof each time you state something as a fact, this thread would be even longer. Did you join this website just for this topic? You have already added around seventy posts to this thread in just two weeks.

You accused Airbusfan29 of spamming this thread, but you have already made more posts than he did.

I do wonder why Airbusfan29 hasn't been active anymore.
 
TObound
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:17 am

I find this article really telling:

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2020/01/0 ... xperience/

Ben Smith clearly has some strategic vision in mind. And a lot of it centres around standardization. I'm going to guess that this doesn't stop with just seats and IFE and catering.

The E2s are clearly tinted to replace the 73Gs. But are they actually the long term replacement? I don't buy it. I think the replacement is ultimately a larger MAX or NEO.

In the end of it I don't see KL and HV operating narrownodies with <190 seats. The slot restrictions at AMS would make that a poor choice. They can simply deploy KLC E2 where they occasionally need the frequency boost.
 
TObound
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:24 am

keesje wrote:
I think KLM will buy 195E2 and A321s in the coming years. And can buy, overhaul additional young 737-800s as required, until Airbus has A225s or Boeing has FSA-8s.

You would need to be authistic to buy MAX's at this stage.

The 787-9s are twice as heavy and expensive as A321s and for different missions.

A321XLR are very efficient, quiet and useful on shorter flights too. That's the unique combination of capability. And everybody is jumping on them.


I think there's a good case for AFKL to adopt the 321NEO as their mainline narrowbody. But I certainly don't know why anybody would rule out the Max. Especially given the deals that Boeing might give out to win business once the Max is flying. The one factor working in Airbus' favour is that the Max debacle will lesson the delivery slot advantage Boeing had. Boeing will probably have lost 1-1.5 years all said and done.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:36 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
@MartijnNL I stated very clearly that it was my opinion...

You absolutely did not state it was your opinion. You wrote precisely the following:

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The MAX will fly again in late 2020, maybe even early 2021, and without any trust in my opinion.

Then I asked:

MartijnNL wrote:
How do you know?

What do you mean with "without any trust"?

To which you answered:

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
... and here’s an article on why the MAXes produced during the grounding will most likely get back in the air in 2021: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/why-y ... ar-BBY2az7

An article mentioning a date in the future has little meaning. Boeing has announced the return of the the MAX quite a few times already. Each time the mentioned date passed without anything happening.

At least write "according to Boeing" or "according to this article" when you state when the MAX will take off again.

MartijnNL wrote:
What do you mean with "without any trust"?

Could you try to answer this question also? Because I still don't understand what you are trying to say.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:41 am

MartijnNL wrote:
Did you join this website just for this topic?


No.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:58 am

MartijnNL wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
@MartijnNL I stated very clearly that it was my opinion...

You absolutely did not state it was your opinion. You wrote precisely the following:


FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The MAX will fly again in late 2020, maybe even early 2021, and without any trust in my opinion.


The text in bold clearly says in my opinion.



MartijnNL wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
What do you mean with "without any trust"?

Could you try to answer this question also? Because I still don't understand what you are trying to say.


What I’m trying to say with that is when the 737 MAX will get back in the air, I do see at least some pilots trusting the aircraft. But I don’t see passengers trusting this aircraft. There are a few in my opinion interesting articles about this, here I have linked some:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans- ... -on-plane/

74% basically says they won’t fly on a MAX, but 50% of Americans don’t even know what a 737 MAX is.

Another article: https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi- ... story.html
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mjoelnir
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:00 am

TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think KLM will buy 195E2 and A321s in the coming years. And can buy, overhaul additional young 737-800s as required, until Airbus has A225s or Boeing has FSA-8s.

You would need to be authistic to buy MAX's at this stage.

The 787-9s are twice as heavy and expensive as A321s and for different missions.

A321XLR are very efficient, quiet and useful on shorter flights too. That's the unique combination of capability. And everybody is jumping on them.


I think there's a good case for AFKL to adopt the 321NEO as their mainline narrowbody. But I certainly don't know why anybody would rule out the Max. Especially given the deals that Boeing might give out to win business once the Max is flying. The one factor working in Airbus' favour is that the Max debacle will lesson the delivery slot advantage Boeing had. Boeing will probably have lost 1-1.5 years all said and done.


As the delivery slot advantage was about the only reason the MAX sold, why do you imagine the MAX will keep selling, if that advantage is gone, I do not expect the inferior frame to sell if you even have to wait for it. If of course we will see a lot of MAX cancellations in the near future, MAX sales could pick up again.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:13 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The MAX will fly again in late 2020, maybe even early 2021, and without any trust in my opinion.

The text in bold clearly says in my opinion.

I read the statement as you having an opinion about the trust. I must have misunderstood you. But the meaning of the sentence wasn't clear to me.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:20 am

@MartijnNL now it hopefully is clear :)
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:47 am

inkjet7 wrote:
So far they only replaced two of the 737-700's (with 737-800's). So 16 to go. Only the A320/1 or 737 (from -8(00) and above) seem realistic options.

I don’t know if I have already mentioned this:

I’m curious if it would be better to first lease 73G replacement aircraft, and then ordering them if they have leased enough.

I.e. KLM is planning to retire all 73Gs by 2022. I think they can’t order 12 or 13 replacement aircraft and have them ready by 2022. So they would need to lease. If it is decided that the aircraft type that replaces KLMs 73Gs will be KLMs new narrowbody, then they would order that type, but in a 738/739-like size. They can also keep the 73G in service until 2025, but that doesn’t sound like a good option because of slot constraints at Schiphol.

Does this make any sense?

This is my own opinion, not a fact.
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TObound
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think KLM will buy 195E2 and A321s in the coming years. And can buy, overhaul additional young 737-800s as required, until Airbus has A225s or Boeing has FSA-8s.

You would need to be authistic to buy MAX's at this stage.

The 787-9s are twice as heavy and expensive as A321s and for different missions.

A321XLR are very efficient, quiet and useful on shorter flights too. That's the unique combination of capability. And everybody is jumping on them.


I think there's a good case for AFKL to adopt the 321NEO as their mainline narrowbody. But I certainly don't know why anybody would rule out the Max. Especially given the deals that Boeing might give out to win business once the Max is flying. The one factor working in Airbus' favour is that the Max debacle will lesson the delivery slot advantage Boeing had. Boeing will probably have lost 1-1.5 years all said and done.


As the delivery slot advantage was about the only reason the MAX sold, why do you imagine the MAX will keep selling, if that advantage is gone, I do not expect the inferior frame to sell if you even have to wait for it. If of course we will see a lot of MAX cancellations in the near future, MAX sales could pick up again.


It all depends on how many cancellations happen and what slots open up. At this point, Boeing probably still has an advantage of slots by at least 6 months if you look at their backlog, aircraft waiting to be delivered and planned production rates. The end of Boeing's line is probably mid 2027. The end of Airbus' line is early 2028. And slots will open up. Airlines who have over-ordered always use delays like this to cancel orders. Between that and lessors, Boeing may be able to scrape together enough slots to get a deal. But yes, every month of delay does help Airbus.
 
inkjet7
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:48 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:

I.e. KLM is planning to retire all 73Gs by 2022. I think they can’t order 12 or 13 replacement aircraft and have them ready by 2022.

Does this make any sense?

They'll order 16 larger planes to replace an equal number of 737-700's. I think it's reasonable to presume that these can't be delivered before 2022.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:07 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:

I.e. KLM is planning to retire all 73Gs by 2022. I think they can’t order 12 or 13 replacement aircraft and have them ready by 2022.

Does this make any sense?

They'll order 16 larger planes to replace an equal number of 737-700's. I think it's reasonable to presume that these can't be delivered before 2022.

Thanks @inkjet7.

Now we only need to wait to find out which aircraft they will order (A or B) and when they will order. :smile:
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TObound
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:35 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:

I.e. KLM is planning to retire all 73Gs by 2022. I think they can’t order 12 or 13 replacement aircraft and have them ready by 2022.

Does this make any sense?

They'll order 16 larger planes to replace an equal number of 737-700's. I think it's reasonable to presume that these can't be delivered before 2022.

Thanks @inkjet7.

Now we only need to wait to find out which aircraft they will order (A or B) and when they will order. :smile:


They could order both.
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:49 am

People here are talking like the MAX just got a little delayed, which has advantages and disadvantages for KLM. Seems to me like denial. The NB segment got turned up side down. A has all the cards, B is struggling for survival. It's evident B has been misinforming you, it is worse then you think, not better. Take a fresh, objective look & forget miracles.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
airbuster
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:19 am

keesje wrote:
People here are talking like the MAX just got a little delayed, which has advantages and disadvantages for KLM. Seems to me like denial. The NB segment got turned up side down. A has all the cards, B is struggling for survival. It's evident B has been misinforming you, it is worse then you think, not better. Take a fresh, objective look & forget miracles.


I second what you say. Especially by today’s statement from CEO Calhoun that Boeing may have to start a new design by rethinking the flight control logic. What a mess.
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TObound
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:06 am

keesje wrote:
People here are talking like the MAX just got a little delayed, which has advantages and disadvantages for KLM. Seems to me like denial. The NB segment got turned up side down. A has all the cards, B is struggling for survival. It's evident B has been misinforming you, it is worse then you think, not better. Take a fresh, objective look & forget miracles.


And yet there was IAG with their LOI for 200.

CEOs just don't care. Bottom line is all that matters. And for AFKL, that means they cross-shop and get a good price from both.

We know they will order some NEO because AF. The question is how many Max. I'd say it's a given that HV goes MAX 200. Only way to compete with Ryanair. So the question is whether KL follows HV or AF. My bet is the same airplane for both mainline.
 
JayBCN
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:39 am

TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
People here are talking like the MAX just got a little delayed, which has advantages and disadvantages for KLM. Seems to me like denial. The NB segment got turned up side down. A has all the cards, B is struggling for survival. It's evident B has been misinforming you, it is worse then you think, not better. Take a fresh, objective look & forget miracles.


And yet there was IAG with their LOI for 200.

CEOs just don't care. Bottom line is all that matters. And for AFKL, that means they cross-shop and get a good price from both.

We know they will order some NEO because AF. The question is how many Max. I'd say it's a given that HV goes MAX 200. Only way to compete with Ryanair. So the question is whether KL follows HV or AF. My bet is the same airplane for both mainline.


And the key word here is Letter of INTENT. And that intent has not been followed up with in ... is it 8 months now ?

KL would be insane to order the MAX - now or in the future. In my opinion the only rational reason for KL to order the MAX is to NOT achieve fleet commonality with AF.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:08 am

JayBCN wrote:
TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
People here are talking like the MAX just got a little delayed, which has advantages and disadvantages for KLM. Seems to me like denial. The NB segment got turned up side down. A has all the cards, B is struggling for survival. It's evident B has been misinforming you, it is worse then you think, not better. Take a fresh, objective look & forget miracles.


And yet there was IAG with their LOI for 200.

CEOs just don't care. Bottom line is all that matters. And for AFKL, that means they cross-shop and get a good price from both.

We know they will order some NEO because AF. The question is how many Max. I'd say it's a given that HV goes MAX 200. Only way to compete with Ryanair. So the question is whether KL follows HV or AF. My bet is the same airplane for both mainline.


And the key word here is Letter of INTENT. And that intent has not been followed up with in ... is it 8 months now ?

KL would be insane to order the MAX - now or in the future. In my opinion the only rational reason for KL to order the MAX is to NOT achieve fleet commonality with AF.

Is fleet commonality with AF a problem for KL? I don’t know why there isn’t a Letter of Intent follow up, but if KL replaces the 73G with a MAX I think KL will go MAX. If KL replaces the 73G with a neo I think KL will go neo. All 73Gs are planned to be phased out by 2022.
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CHRISBA35X
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:32 am

I'll lead with I don't think we'll ever see a KL A321XLR but where would they fly such a machine if they bought them?

Am assuming we'd see two class, with the C product being the same as the WB fleet but 1-1 config. Say same as QR do on their A321s so 12 C / 165 J. Where would they fly these to that they don't already fly to?
 
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:38 am

In the network 73G will be replacedd by E190/195E2s and 738s. Or fhey fly the 73G a bit longer.

The bigger airlines don't like to not have a Boeing option, specialy KLM. But it is reality & not their fault.

Transavia is also holding back. You don't buy a broken car. There's no reason.

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I'll lead with I don't think we'll ever see a KL A321XLR but where would they fly such a machine if they bought them?

Am assuming we'd see two class, with the C product being the same as the WB fleet but 1-1 config. Say same as QR do on their A321s so 12 C / 165 J. Where would they fly these to that they don't already fly to?


Intra Europe big city pairs, Middle East network, Middle/North Africa, India, secondairy TATL destinations together with DL, opening new destinations, additional frequencies.

I think the XLR is going to create a lot of trouble for legacy's like KLM. Waiting, watching is not in KLM's genes.
Last edited by keesje on Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:48 am

keesje wrote:
In the network 73G will be replacedd by E190/195E2s and 738s.


The 73G will not be replaced by the E190/E195-E2s because of the seating capacity. KLM wanted to retire the 73G because of seating capacity! Replacing the 73G with the E2 does NOT solve the capacity problem! They need to order a bigger aircraft to replace the 73G because of slot constraints and capacity problems! The E2 is as big as the 73G, and the E190 is even smaller! How do you think the E2 will replace the 73G?

You can’t order NGs anymore, you can only lease them, and why would you even lease a less efficient airframe when there are more efficient airframes available? The 73G will get replaced by the A320/A321neo, or with the 737 MAX 8/9/10!

The XLR doesn’t make any sense for KLM because of slot constraints.

And with slot constraints, you get capacity problems.
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:22 am

KLM is changing their plans if required all the time. There's no 1-1 replacements & seatcount of a 73G replacement needs to stay below 150 seats for crewing reasons. As you know, KLM euro destinations are mostly 4-5 flights a day. They adjust that as required. 73G flights will be replaced by Ejets, others by 738's, changed seasonal maybe if demand/ yield opportunity dictates that. There's lots of variables.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:39 am

keesje wrote:
KLM is changing their plans if required all the time. There's no 1-1 replacements & seatcount of a 73G replacement needs to stay below 150 seats for crewing reasons. As you know, KLM euro destinations are mostly 4-5 flights a day. They adjust that as required. 73G flights will be replaced by Ejets, others by 738's, changed seasonal maybe if demand/ yield opportunity dictates that. There's lots of variables.

I think that it can also go this way: 73G flights with low to medium demand will be replaced by E-jets, and 73G flights with high and very high demand will be replaced by the 32N/32Q, or with the 7M8/7M9/7MJ.
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VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:41 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The 73G will not be replaced by the E190/E195-E2s because of the seating capacity.


The 737-700 and E2 seat the same in KLMs config.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:45 am

VSMUT wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The 73G will not be replaced by the E190/E195-E2s because of the seating capacity.


The 737-700 and E2 seat the same in KLMs config.

And that’s exactly what I wanted to say. KLM needs more capacity, and you increase capacity by ordering larger planes. The 73G is too small for KLM, and replacing the 73G with the E2 won’t fix the capacity issue. Replacing the 73G with the 32N/32Q or with the 7M8/7M9/7MJ will not completely solve the issue, but it will at least reduce the issue.

The E2 isn’t a 73G replacement: https://vnconline.nl/actueel/verslag-kl ... -juni-2019 (Dutch only)

KLC stelt dat er géén 737-productie zal worden overgenomen van KLM. Door meer passagiers per kist te kunnen vervoeren kan er efficiënter gewerkt worden.


The E2 is intended to increase capacity at KLC. Some 73G flights can go to KLC, but that’s not the main purpose of the E2 order.

The E2 is a E190 replacement (quote from the same article):

De E2 is een groter en zuiniger toestel dat ter vervanging zal dienen van de E190 en capaciteit biedt voor 132 á 136 stoelen.
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VSMUT
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:11 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
And that’s exactly what I wanted to say. KLM needs more capacity, and you increase capacity by ordering larger planes. The 73G is too small for KLM, and replacing the 73G with the E2 won’t fix the capacity issue. Replacing the 73G with the 32N/32Q or with the 7M8/7M9/7MJ will not completely solve the issue, but it will at least reduce the issue.


You can't increase capacity if the route can only sustain 100-130 seats per flight. It is one thing that Amsterdam is growing uncontrollably, but if Ålborg can't fill anything bigger than a 737-700, it makes zero sense to put an A320 or 737MAX-8 on the route.
 
JayBCN
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:15 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
TObound wrote:

And yet there was IAG with their LOI for 200.

CEOs just don't care. Bottom line is all that matters. And for AFKL, that means they cross-shop and get a good price from both.

We know they will order some NEO because AF. The question is how many Max. I'd say it's a given that HV goes MAX 200. Only way to compete with Ryanair. So the question is whether KL follows HV or AF. My bet is the same airplane for both mainline.


And the key word here is Letter of INTENT. And that intent has not been followed up with in ... is it 8 months now ?

KL would be insane to order the MAX - now or in the future. In my opinion the only rational reason for KL to order the MAX is to NOT achieve fleet commonality with AF.

Is fleet commonality with AF a problem for KL? I don’t know why there isn’t a Letter of Intent follow up, but if KL replaces the 73G with a MAX I think KL will go MAX. If KL replaces the 73G with a neo I think KL will go neo. All 73Gs are planned to be phased out by 2022.


I worked in NL the past 10 years and the Dutch know and use all the tricks to protect their national interests from the aspirations of their larger neighbors. Being all Boeing at a time where Boeing has failed and might even go under makes sense only in light of a bigger game in my opinion - especially when the very rational Dutch are involved. Fleet UNcommonality is one of the tools you can use to NOT be part of something else and retain independence potentially for a future break up. Of course no one in NL will confirm that.
Last edited by JayBCN on Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:21 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
Posts: 223
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:17 am

VSMUT wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
And that’s exactly what I wanted to say. KLM needs more capacity, and you increase capacity by ordering larger planes. The 73G is too small for KLM, and replacing the 73G with the E2 won’t fix the capacity issue. Replacing the 73G with the 32N/32Q or with the 7M8/7M9/7MJ will not completely solve the issue, but it will at least reduce the issue.


You can't increase capacity if the route can only sustain 100-130 seats per flight. It is one thing that Amsterdam is growing uncontrollably, but if Ålborg can't fill anything bigger than a 737-700, it makes zero sense to put an A320 or 737MAX-8 on the route.


And that’s why I said this:
Some 73G flights can go to KLC
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:23 am

JayBCN wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

And the key word here is Letter of INTENT. And that intent has not been followed up with in ... is it 8 months now ?

KL would be insane to order the MAX - now or in the future. In my opinion the only rational reason for KL to order the MAX is to NOT achieve fleet commonality with AF.

Is fleet commonality with AF a problem for KL? I don’t know why there isn’t a Letter of Intent follow up, but if KL replaces the 73G with a MAX I think KL will go MAX. If KL replaces the 73G with a neo I think KL will go neo. All 73Gs are planned to be phased out by 2022.


I worked in NL the past 10 years and the Dutch know and use all the tricks to protect their national interests from the aspirations of their larger neighbors. Being all Boeing at a time where Boeing has failed and might even go under makes sense only in light of a bigger game in my opinion - especially when the very rational Dutch are involved. Fleet UNcommonality is one of the tools you can use to NOT be part of something else and retain independence potentially for a future break up. Of course no one in NL will confirm that.

Thanks @JayBCN. I don’t know if the problems between AF and KL are solved, but it does look like the problems are solved since I don’t hear anything about AF-KLM in the news recently. In 2018, the Dutch Government said they won’t help AF-KLM. But they bought AF-KLM stock in 2019, so it’s unclear if they care about the AF-KLM problems.

https://nltimes.nl/2018/05/10/dutch-gov ... m-problems
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keesje
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:34 am

JayBCN wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

And the key word here is Letter of INTENT. And that intent has not been followed up with in ... is it 8 months now ?

KL would be insane to order the MAX - now or in the future. In my opinion the only rational reason for KL to order the MAX is to NOT achieve fleet commonality with AF.

Is fleet commonality with AF a problem for KL? I don’t know why there isn’t a Letter of Intent follow up, but if KL replaces the 73G with a MAX I think KL will go MAX. If KL replaces the 73G with a neo I think KL will go neo. All 73Gs are planned to be phased out by 2022.


I worked in NL the past 10 years and the Dutch know and use all the tricks to protect their national interests from the aspirations of their larger neighbors. Being all Boeing at a time where Boeing has failed and might even go under makes sense only in light of a bigger game in my opinion - especially when the very rational Dutch are involved. Fleet UNcommonality is one of the tools you can use to NOT be part of something else and retain independence potentially for a future break up. Of course no one in NL will confirm that.


I confirm. KLM not ordering 737MAX during the orderboom helps them now. They will bridge a few years to see how Boeings situation works out. E.g. they might be FSA Europen launch customer in a MRO inclusive deal. Getting A321XLRs to strenghten network flexibility doesn't prevent that.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:49 am

keesje wrote:
I think KLM will buy 195E2 and A321s in the coming years.

If I’m correct you’re saying you think they will order 32Qs and XLRs? Or do you think they’ll only order XLRs? Your last post makes me think you think they will order XLRs.
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mig17
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:17 pm

The narrowbody replacement at AF-KLM group level has begun :
New A220 and E2 have been ordered.
Some 737-800 at KL and some A320/1 at AF are brand new.
AF and KL can steel buy or lease used ones to extend current fleets.

When a larger order will be delivered for one or several planes, they will be delivered to mainline while A320ceo and 737ng with life remaining will go to Transavia and Transavia France and E2 will go at city and hop.

I think more E2, some of A220 options and some A321neo (not necessarily lr or xlr) will be the final group choice to replace everything that needs replacement for a time.
Last edited by mig17 on Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:34 pm

mig17 wrote:
The narrowbody replacement at AF-KLM group level has begun :
New A220 and E2 have been ordered.
Some 737-800 at KL and some A320/1 at AF are brand new.
AF and KL can steel buy or lease used ones to extend current fleets.

When a larger order will be delivered for one or several planes, they will be delivered to mainline while A320ceo and 737ng with life remaining will go to Transavia and Transavia France and E2 will go at city and hop.

I think more E2, some of A220 options and some A321neo (not lr or xlr) will be the final group choice to replace everything that needs replacement.

While I do agree with you, you missed some points in my opinion, you forgot the 737 MAX and that it looks like HV and TO only want to operate Boeing aircraft. HV said they will go for the MAX. I don’t think TO will go neo. I think AF and KL will go neo. In my opinion the group order will be distributed across the airlines like this:

KLM: A321neo, E195-E2, the E175-E2 will be used for EGLC

Air France: A321neo, A220-300

Transavia: 737 MAX 200

Transavia France: 737 MAX 200

This is not official, this is my own opinion.
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Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
inkjet7
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:54 pm

VSMUT wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The 73G will not be replaced by the E190/E195-E2s because of the seating capacity.


The 737-700 and E2 seat the same in KLMs config.


737-700: 146 seats (142 with two rows of business class). E2: 132 seats.
 
mig17
Posts: 320
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:55 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The narrowbody replacement at AF-KLM group level has begun :
New A220 and E2 have been ordered.
Some 737-800 at KL and some A320/1 at AF are brand new.
AF and KL can steel buy or lease used ones to extend current fleets.

When a larger order will be delivered for one or several planes, they will be delivered to mainline while A320ceo and 737ng with life remaining will go to Transavia and Transavia France and E2 will go at city and hop.

I think more E2, some of A220 options and some A321neo (not lr or xlr) will be the final group choice to replace everything that needs replacement.

While I do agree with you, you missed some points in my opinion. HV said they will go for the MAX. I don’t think TO will go neo. I think AF and KL will go neo. In my opinion the group order will be distributed across the airlines like this:

KLM: A321neo, E195-E2, the E175-E2 will be used for EGLC

Air France: A321neo, A220-300

Transavia: 737 MAX 200

Transavia France: 737 MAX 200

This is not official, this is my own opinion.

Both Transavia and Transavia France have "young" fleets and most of their 737-800 are less than 10 years old. I don't know how much cycles they have but I don't think there is a rush to replace them. But HV and TO are where the group wants to grow and so they will need more planes. The plan may have been to go 737max before last summer, but considering the current max situation, I'd say that plan is on stand by and the group will look at 2nd hand 737-800 and maybe A320ceo to keep growing at short term.
For any airline with no max already on order, the best way-forward for now is to wait and rely on other options until the plane flies again and pax&crews are fine with it.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
tvh
Posts: 204
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:07 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
76er wrote:
Let me add one more reason KL will not operate the XLR: it will essentially be a longhaul plane, dealing with typical longhaul issues like ETOPS, more extensive catering, crew rest, WBC, etcetc. I can guarantee you the powerful VNV-DALPA is going to demand longhaul pay and work schedules for its members, raising CASM by a quite significant margin. The cabin crew unions VNC/FNC will most likely come up with similar demands.


Now I agree the XLR is not an option. The 787-9 is better than the XLR for KL. And I actually don’t want KL operating the XLR. Flying long-haul routes on a narrowbody sounds really uncomfortable.

The A321XLR is a different aircraft with different capabilities than the A321neo in my opinion.


I disagree. The A321XLR can fly longer of course, but whenever there will come a beter solution for those longer routes the XLR canl still be reconfigured for shorter routes. Only the new fueltank is hard to remove, all other changes are fine for shorter routes too.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
Posts: 223
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:09 pm

mig17 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
mig17 wrote:
The narrowbody replacement at AF-KLM group level has begun :
New A220 and E2 have been ordered.
Some 737-800 at KL and some A320/1 at AF are brand new.
AF and KL can steel buy or lease used ones to extend current fleets.

When a larger order will be delivered for one or several planes, they will be delivered to mainline while A320ceo and 737ng with life remaining will go to Transavia and Transavia France and E2 will go at city and hop.

I think more E2, some of A220 options and some A321neo (not lr or xlr) will be the final group choice to replace everything that needs replacement.

While I do agree with you, you missed some points in my opinion. HV said they will go for the MAX. I don’t think TO will go neo. I think AF and KL will go neo. In my opinion the group order will be distributed across the airlines like this:

KLM: A321neo, E195-E2, the E175-E2 will be used for EGLC

Air France: A321neo, A220-300

Transavia: 737 MAX 200

Transavia France: 737 MAX 200

This is not official, this is my own opinion.

Both Transavia and Transavia France have "young" fleets and most of their 737-800 are less than 10 years old. I don't know how much cycles they have but I don't think there is a rush to replace them. But HV and TO are where the group wants to grow and so they will need more planes. The plan may have been to go 737max before last summer, but considering the current max situation, I'd say that plan is on stand by and the group will look at 2nd hand 737-800 and maybe A320ceo to keep growing at short term.
For any airline with no max already on order, the best way-forward for now is to wait and rely on other options until the plane flies again and pax&crews are fine with it.


KLM definitely has some 738s to replace with 32Qs in my opinion, they have 31 of them and 15 of them are from the 1999 - 2001 timeframe. Half of KLMs 738 fleet is from 1999 -2001.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:12 pm

tvh wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
76er wrote:
Let me add one more reason KL will not operate the XLR: it will essentially be a longhaul plane, dealing with typical longhaul issues like ETOPS, more extensive catering, crew rest, WBC, etcetc. I can guarantee you the powerful VNV-DALPA is going to demand longhaul pay and work schedules for its members, raising CASM by a quite significant margin. The cabin crew unions VNC/FNC will most likely come up with similar demands.


Now I agree the XLR is not an option. The 787-9 is better than the XLR for KL. And I actually don’t want KL operating the XLR. Flying long-haul routes on a narrowbody sounds really uncomfortable.

The A321XLR is a different aircraft with different capabilities than the A321neo in my opinion.


I disagree. The A321XLR can fly longer of course, but whenever there will come a beter solution for those longer routes the XLR canl still be reconfigured for shorter routes. Only the new fueltank is hard to remove, all other changes are fine for shorter routes too.

It makes a lot more sense to use an A321neo instead of an XLR on shorter routes. If you use the XLR for shorter routes it’s basically a more expensive A321neo.
KJFK - EGLL:

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keesje
Topic Author
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:56 pm

KLM 737s are relatively high cycle for their age.. so relative higher MRO costs.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:08 pm

keesje wrote:
KLM 737s are relatively high cycle for their age.. so relative higher MRO costs.

Now I’m really curious why AF-KLM keeps waiting with their decision, the 737 MAX situation is one of them, is there any other reason AF-KLM keeps waiting with their fleet strategy decision and ordering?
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Jetty
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:36 am

Another reason for the delay might be negotiations with KL and AF pilot unions about the balance of longhoul flying between the companies are still ongoing.

Long story short: with the merger a certain balance between KL and AF longhaul flying was agreed. Recently the metric was changed from seat capacity to number of planes, which might be favorable for KL with the retirement of AF’s A380’s.

KL pilots were left out of the negotiations of the new agreement and aren’t happy because for every longhaul plane KL adds AF should add 2.5 going forward. Talks with KL’s pilot union are ongoing.

Depending on the details there might be a very strong case for the XLR or none at all. If i.e. only widebody planes are considered for measuring the balance, the XLR might be the only way to expand longhaul flying at KL. But if it’s about a certain range the XLR might have to replace a widebody and isn’t a viable option.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:49 am

Jetty wrote:
Another reason for the delay might be negotiations with KL and AF pilot unions about the balance of longhoul flying between the companies are still ongoing.

Long story short: with the merger a certain balance between KL and AF longhaul flying was agreed. Recently the metric was changed from seat capacity to number of planes, which might be favorable for KL with the retirement of AF’s A380’s.

KL pilots were left out of the negotiations of the new agreement and aren’t happy because for every longhaul plane KL adds AF should add 2.5 going forward. Talks with KL’s pilot union are ongoing.

Depending on the details there might be a very strong case for the XLR or none at all. If i.e. only widebody planes are considered for measuring the balance, the XLR might be the only way to expand longhaul flying at KL. But if it’s about a certain range the XLR might have to replace a widebody and isn’t a viable option.


I still find it baffling that pilots, employees - not their own money they are playing with, can have such a profound effect on the strategy of a company. It is not what is in the best interest of the company where the resources go - the return of profit - but where the pilots get to fly, job protection for one specific group.
You illustrated this perfectly, there is or isn't a place for the XLR, depending on the pilot's union.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Jetty
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Re: What are KLM 737 replacement options?

Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:04 am

Dutchy wrote:
Jetty wrote:
Another reason for the delay might be negotiations with KL and AF pilot unions about the balance of longhoul flying between the companies are still ongoing.

Long story short: with the merger a certain balance between KL and AF longhaul flying was agreed. Recently the metric was changed from seat capacity to number of planes, which might be favorable for KL with the retirement of AF’s A380’s.

KL pilots were left out of the negotiations of the new agreement and aren’t happy because for every longhaul plane KL adds AF should add 2.5 going forward. Talks with KL’s pilot union are ongoing.

Depending on the details there might be a very strong case for the XLR or none at all. If i.e. only widebody planes are considered for measuring the balance, the XLR might be the only way to expand longhaul flying at KL. But if it’s about a certain range the XLR might have to replace a widebody and isn’t a viable option.


I still find it baffling that pilots, employees - not their own money they are playing with, can have such a profound effect on the strategy of a company. It is not what is in the best interest of the company where the resources go - the return of profit - but where the pilots get to fly, job protection for one specific group.
You illustrated this perfectly, there is or isn't a place for the XLR, depending on the pilot's union.

Fully agree, but I’ll add that it’s the AF pilots who make an issue out of this. KL pilots are mostly concerned that the threat of industrial actions by their AF counterparts will make AFKL agree to demands that put an unreasonable burden on KL. If it’s up to KL pilots they’d probably agree to ditch any such kind of agreement in a heartbeat.

* To be fair when the merger happened it were the Dutch demanding such agreements because they were scared AF as the major partner would move traffic to Paris, but since then the opposite happened because KL and The Netherlands are more competitive.
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