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avier
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:57 am

What about the feasibility of a new runway for Gatwick instead? And developing better road/rail network to LGW from areas in and around the capital city.
 
Caluma350
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:06 pm

Very controversial in the UK, no one in the government wants to be the decision maker as to give it the go ahead as it would be very heavily scrutinized, therefore even more delays are possible.
 
Caluma350
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:12 pm

avier wrote:
What about the feasibility of a new runway for Gatwick instead? And developing better road/rail network to LGW from areas in and around the capital city.


There are already plans for a new runway at Gatwick to the south of the current runway. However Gatwick and Heathrow have different economics as Heathrow is more the major hub airport and therefore serve different purposes therefore expansion at Gatwick is not necessarily a substitute for expanding Heathrow.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:43 pm

You KNOW Sydney West will be up and running before Heathrow 3 is anywhere near started. :rotfl:
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TC957
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:55 pm

SoEWR wrote:
Why 8 years to build a runway?

This is the UK we are talking about ! If they ever get going with it, it'll be the biggest construction project and upheaval in the UK. The 8 lane M25 needs a tunnel under the new runway for starters, plus demolition of nearby villages and industrial sites.
I don't see it happening in the 2020's, sorry to say.
 
cesar666cu
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:56 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
You KNOW Sydney West will be up and running before Heathrow 3 is anywhere near started. :rotfl:


What are your bets between LHR 3rd runway and Berlin airport ?
 
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DL717
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:58 pm

avier wrote:
What about the feasibility of a new runway for Gatwick instead? And developing better road/rail network to LGW from areas in and around the capital city.


Gatwick can even do a stop gap in less than a year. If they move the runway 50-feet they have close parallels which gives you about 10-15% more capacity depending on the weather. They just need to widen it and move the centerline.

As for Heathrow, bump up the landing fees To fund it and move forward. It’ll pay for itself in Revenue generation in rather short order.


TC957 wrote:
SoEWR wrote:
Why 8 years to build a runway?

This is the UK we are talking about ! If they ever get going with it, it'll be the biggest construction project and upheaval in the UK. The 8 lane M25 needs a tunnel under the new runway for starters, plus demolition of nearby villages and industrial sites.
I don't see it happening in the 2020's, sorry to say.


Well there is that.
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PaxPicti
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:59 pm

What happened to Boris Johnson's pledge to lie in front of the bulldozers?

Hopefully it will never be built. If you wonder why, try living or working anywhere near LHR - the M25, M4 and surrounding roads can barely cope now, let alone with what will happen during and after the building. Two new ones for Gatwick and Stansted would be far more sensible, could be delivered quicker and cost less.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:01 pm

cesar666cu wrote:
readytotaxi wrote:
You KNOW Sydney West will be up and running before Heathrow 3 is anywhere near started. :rotfl:


What are your bets between LHR 3rd runway and Berlin airport ?

Looking into my crystal ball I see Berlin, Gatwick 2 and LHR 3 in that order. :D
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Revelation
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:13 pm

Caluma350 wrote:
Very controversial in the UK, no one in the government wants to be the decision maker as to give it the go ahead as it would be very heavily scrutinized, therefore even more delays are possible.

No one wants to pay for it:
  • Not the major international airline whose hub is at LHR, BA.
  • Not the traveler.
  • Not the people living in the area.
  • Not the people living outside of the area.

Hard to see how we get a third runway when no one is willing to pay for it, and there are other easier options that can be taken.

Yes, there is a general need to increase traffic volume but the actual specific solution does not have enough support.

In particular, BA will never support it, all it serves to do is give precious slots to its competitors.

Besides, as WW pointed out if the third runway gets approved BA's headquarters will need to be knocked down.

Clearly BA will not be supporting such a plan.

The only ones supporting it are the owners of the airport (of course) and BA's competitors, but they aren't willing or able to pay for it all themselves.

Seems to me there is no where near enough support to get the project built.

The project keeps rattling through various committees but seems to grind to a halt whenever the money needs to start flowing.

This seems to be another example of that.
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mdavies06
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:49 pm

Actually when was the last time a new runway opened in any airports in London?
 
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United787
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:15 pm

Meanwhile in Chicago (not Asia), O'Hare International Airport (ORD) is scheduled to complete a new runway next year. It's 4th new runway in 12 years for a total of 6 parallel runways and 2 cross wind runways. This enormous project also included moving neighborhoods, a major road, a railroad, hangers, airport facilities and a cemetery. The extension of a 2nd existing runway will be completed in the following year.
 
LabQuest
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:17 pm

How long is this charade going to go on? There's not going to be a 3rd runway built in our lifetimes. How can people keep believing this is going to happen?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:19 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
cesar666cu wrote:
readytotaxi wrote:
You KNOW Sydney West will be up and running before Heathrow 3 is anywhere near started. :rotfl:


What are your bets between LHR 3rd runway and Berlin airport ?

Looking into my crystal ball I see Berlin, Gatwick 2 and LHR 3 in that order. :D

I notice the avoidance of predicting BER.

LHR has only needed a 3rd runway since, oh, 1980. What is another 8 years? Sigh...

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skipness1E
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:19 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
Actually when was the last time a new runway opened in any airports in London?

When the King George V dock became London City Airport back in 1987.
 
Breathe
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:23 pm

SoEWR wrote:
Why 8 years to build a runway?

Welcome to the UK.
 
avier
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:42 pm

Why not build a whole new airport in the proximity and connect it to the locations where LHR serve and come handy? Might cost less than building the third runway at LHR and all the relocation/demolition required to build it. Folks, get your maps out. :lol:
 
CuriousMonkey
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:13 am

I wonder what will happen first, 3rd runway at Heathrow or Alitalia not being up for sale/getting rescued by the government.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:02 am

I bet BA are regretting not ordering more A380s now... and for the avoidance of doubt I'm fully serious here. The A380 has been a failure for many airlines who operate it, but the only way for BA to significantly increase capacity long haul in the 2020s is with bigger planes. Admittedly this can be done with A319 -> A320 and A320 -> A321s on the narrowbody side, but on key long haul routes like New York & Los Angeles they'll have to reduce frequencies elsewhere in order to significantly up gauge capacity (they're already sending countless 747s and 777s to New York, daily).

We're already seeing the deployment of 787s from Heathrow to Europe, which represent a huge up-gauge from the A321s and even the odd 767s of yesteryear.

Of all the airports, Heathrow is the best poised for expansion - Gatwick expansion will cause chaos on the M25 motorway for anyone travelling South East, and Heathrow is far better connected to public transport, with bus, coach, train and tube connections, alongside Crossrail coming online imminently, and HS2 (High Speed Rail) providing a near direct link from the Midlands, and eventually the North, just a few years after the 3rd runway is currently due to be completed. Add that to the construction of the mega-hub Old Oak Common hub train station nearby, and it will be unparalleled in public transport links.

That being said though, I echo many of the commenters above: no one wants to pay for it, not the airlines, nor the passengers, nor the airport itself. You can spend years running in circles debating the bureaucracy and regulations in the UK that make it so expensive, but that's not going to change, so there's no real point debating it. Unlike many airport expansions in the US, there isn't the free space available; houses, villages and communities all have to be demolished, major roads (which need to stay online during the entirety of the construction) need to be re-routed and tunneled. While true that the Prime Minister has opposed it (for context his constituency that he represents is next door to Heathrow), most MPs support it and the recent legislation passed easily in the House of Commons. Opening a 3rd runway will provide an immediate economic boost, from connecting passengers, to new staff, to construction contracts - it's a gold mine.

It's important to understand why this has been delayed again, the CAA have said Heathrow can't spend money on it until planning permission and legislation fully grants its construction, this is to stop potentially wasted costs (should a 3rd runway not come to fruition) being passed on to innocent passengers. Airlines and politicians are concerned, and could put the stoppers on the project, but they haven't caused this delay.
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uta999
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:48 am

Rather than try to tunnel and widen (again) the active M25 next to Heathrow, during the 3rd runway expansion, it should be done properly this time.

If you look on Google Earth, the M25 curves in towards Heathrow, then out again. This section of the orbital motorway badly needs a bypass in a new tunnel from Egham to the M40 junction.

This would take much of the traffic away from heavily congested western area of the airport. It could also be built entirely separately from the road network. Just imagine the alternative of ten years of roadworks!

Traffic on the existing section of the M25 could fall by 80%, with only airport and M4 commuters using it. The new tunnel would have no junctions from the M3 to the M40.

Funding would come from national infrastructure as it is a UK road network improvement. Not specific to airport expansion. Air quality would be improved enormously in the local area.
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SueD
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:00 pm

avier wrote:
Why not build a whole new airport in the proximity and connect it to the locations where LHR serve and come handy? Might cost less than building the third runway at LHR and all the relocation/demolition required to build it. Folks, get your maps out. :lol:


Perhaps it’s because it’s in probably the most densely populated area in the country .OH and add to the fact the land values and neighbouring borough residents are some of the highest and residents include some of the richest with significant political power in the land .

The presence of a large part of the London fresh water storage facilities , numerous historic and protected sites including a rather insignificant castle ON FINALS Runnymede, the. RAF memorial, major arterial motorways and rail lines that need moving and that’s without even considering Greta and co .

A complete replacement 4 runway airport in Western London , Surrey and Royal Berkshire is a bigger fantasy than Terry Pritchett's ( rest peacefully and sadly missed for my annual Christmas book) tooth fairy !
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:57 pm

uta999 wrote:
Rather than try to tunnel and widen (again) the active M25 next to Heathrow, during the 3rd runway expansion, it should be done properly this time.

If you look on Google Earth, the M25 curves in towards Heathrow, then out again. This section of the orbital motorway badly needs a bypass in a new tunnel from Egham to the M40 junction.

This would take much of the traffic away from heavily congested western area of the airport. It could also be built entirely separately from the road network. Just imagine the alternative of ten years of roadworks!

Traffic on the existing section of the M25 could fall by 80%, with only airport and M4 commuters using it. The new tunnel would have no junctions from the M3 to the M40.

Funding would come from national infrastructure as it is a UK road network improvement. Not specific to airport expansion. Air quality would be improved enormously in the local area.


This type of sleight of hand is an ongoing disagreement between the government and HHL. It goes to the point above that no one wants to pay, and if no one is going to pay the project will wither on the vine and eventually die.

The government (predominantly through TfL) have set out a serious of improvements to infrastructure that would be required if Runway 3 is ever built. On this basis, the government have demanded that HHL provide a significant proportion of the money required.

HHL argue these are not specific to expansion and that the government should pay the vast majority. I think they have offered to fund £1bn (of a £20bn to £30bn price tag).

The present government have stood on a manifesto of no new public money for Heathrow, so notwithstanding the various proposals and the disagreements on whether something is airport specific or not, if no one is paying, nothing will happen.
 
jghealey
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:02 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
I bet BA are regretting not ordering more A380s now... and for the avoidance of doubt I'm fully serious here. The A380 has been a failure for many airlines who operate it, but the only way for BA to significantly increase capacity long haul in the 2020s is with bigger planes. Admittedly this can be done with A319 -> A320 and A320 -> A321s on the narrowbody side, but on key long haul routes like New York & Los Angeles they'll have to reduce frequencies elsewhere in order to significantly up gauge capacity (they're already sending countless 747s and 777s to New York, daily).

We're already seeing the deployment of 787s from Heathrow to Europe, which represent a huge up-gauge from the A321s and even the odd 767s of yesteryear.

If I remember correctly BA were considering a package of used and new A380s from Airbus last year but ultimately ended up going with the 777-9 as the A380 option was too expensive for them (and particularly since cabin refitting would be very expensive). So maybe the 777-9 will be their way of upgauging... 777-200 (which forms the bulk of their widebody fleet) to 777-9 is still quite a large capacity jump.

And also what 787s to Europe? If you mean BA I can't think of a route that gets them... MAD gets a daily 777 but I don't think there are any other widebody BA flights within Europe; the 767 ones have largely been replaced with A321neos. BA's 787s aren't the best option for European flights as they actually have fewer seats than the neos, at 214 for the 787-8 and 216 for the 787-9 (relative to the A321neo's 220).
 
avier
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:48 pm

SueD wrote:
Perhaps it’s because it’s in probably the most densely populated area in the country .OH and add to the fact the land values and neighbouring borough residents are some of the highest and residents include some of the richest with significant political power in the land .

The presence of a large part of the London fresh water storage facilities , numerous historic and protected sites including a rather insignificant castle ON FINALS Runnymede, the. RAF memorial, major arterial motorways and rail lines that need moving and that’s without even considering Greta and co .

A complete replacement 4 runway airport in Western London , Surrey and Royal Berkshire is a bigger fantasy than Terry Pritchett's ( rest peacefully and sadly missed for my annual Christmas book) tooth fairy !

Well then, users of LHR should pay the price for this expansion if they want the continued convenience of the airport by way of its expansion. Londoners can't demand convenience and not pay for it, considering it's in such a fancy part of town where everything is so pricey, as you put it. OR they can take the extra effort to travel to other airports of London. There ain't no free lunch.
 
SueD
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:31 pm

avier wrote:
SueD wrote:
Perhaps it’s because it’s in probably the most densely populated area in the country .OH and add to the fact the land values and neighbouring borough residents are some of the highest and residents include some of the richest with significant political power in the land .

The presence of a large part of the London fresh water storage facilities , numerous historic and protected sites including a rather insignificant castle ON FINALS Runnymede, the. RAF memorial, major arterial motorways and rail lines that need moving and that’s without even considering Greta and co .

A complete replacement 4 runway airport in Western London , Surrey and Royal Berkshire is a bigger fantasy than Terry Pritchett's ( rest peacefully and sadly missed for my annual Christmas book) tooth fairy !

Well then, users of LHR should pay the price for this expansion if they want the continued convenience of the airport by way of its expansion. Londoners can't demand convenience and not pay for it, considering it's in such a fancy part of town where everything is so pricey, as you put it. OR they can take the extra effort to travel to other airports of London. There ain't no free lunch.


A significant element of this development concept is predicated on a belief that Heathrow needs to enhance it’s connectivity credentials-ie more passengers arriving from XYZ and immediately departing to ABC including a political idea that regional traffic wants to return to UK rather than routing via Amsterdam Dubai or even Dublin (that case is rather weak and indeed conflicts directly with government environmental policies of reducing unnecessary domestic and short haul flights !)
How exactly does that benefit Londoners and neighbouring borough tax payers in anyway - these international connections don’t even pay UK departure taxes right now !

Currently around 1/3 of terminal numbers are officially connections and another 8 to 12 % may also be considered self connects through the hub model .

With a little north of 70 million booked passenger numbers - less the double counted 1/3 and a conservative further 5% deduction say 44million point to point - Gatwick Stansted and Luton almost certainly handle more of the local traffic than Heathrow does by a margin today
 
avier
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:47 pm

SueD wrote:
A significant element of this development concept is predicated on a belief that Heathrow needs to enhance it’s connectivity credentials-ie more passengers arriving from XYZ and immediately departing to ABC including a political idea that regional traffic wants to return to UK rather than routing via Amsterdam Dubai or even Dublin (that case is rather weak and indeed conflicts directly with government environmental policies of reducing unnecessary domestic and short haul flights !)
How exactly does that benefit Londoners and neighbouring borough tax payers in anyway - these international connections don’t even pay UK departure taxes right now !

Currently around 1/3 of terminal numbers are officially connections and another 8 to 12 % may also be considered self connects through the hub model .

With a little north of 70 million booked passenger numbers - less the double counted 1/3 and a conservative further 5% deduction say 44million point to point - Gatwick Stansted and Luton almost certainly handle more of the local traffic than Heathrow does by a margin today

Well then, that is certainly the fault of the hub airlines of LHR that use it in that way. Connecting pax just book tickets based on price/time. If LHR is more known for its proximity to the important locations of London, airlines should use the airport for more O&D traffic. They can use the other airports for connection/hub-ing purpose because it doesn't matter to transfer pax which airport ,in which part of London, when they ain't going to step out of the airport.

But now if the hub airlines of LHR chose to use it like ATL or DXB and then demand expansion in the name of it being closer to business hubs in London, when it cost £bn's for that expansion, they can keep dreaming. Or they can pay for it.
 
VS11
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:39 pm

They waited way way way too long to build it. All of the pax growth that would have paid for the new runway at LHR has been absorbed by neighboring airports. The most economically sensible thing to do is make London City able to handle A321XLR which will end up being used more and more on TATL.
 
bennett123
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:25 pm

If you think scope for growth is limited at LHR, try LCY.
 
JibberJim
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:12 pm

avier wrote:
Well then, that is certainly the fault of the hub airlines of LHR that use it in that way. Connecting pax just book tickets based on price/time. If LHR is more known for its proximity to the important locations of London, airlines should use the airport for more O&D traffic.


But it's the O&D traffic that makes it a hub, it's not Atlanta or Dubai, it's because lots of long haul places have direct flights to LHR because of the O&D demand that means that there's capacity and price competition on filling those planes (especially in Y) that makes it a hub.

The actual ideal for local Londoners is to get rid of the transit passengers, they don't need them much to keep routes open - although there will be some, and prices would be higher - but they certainly get lots of damage from them, so taxing them for using the airport would make a lot more sense than building a 3rd runway.
 
avier
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:04 am

JibberJim wrote:

But it's the O&D traffic that makes it a hub, it's not Atlanta or Dubai, it's because lots of long haul places have direct flights to LHR because of the O&D demand that means that there's capacity and price competition on filling those planes (especially in Y) that makes it a hub.

The actual ideal for local Londoners is to get rid of the transit passengers, they don't need them much to keep routes open - although there will be some, and prices would be higher - but they certainly get lots of damage from them, so taxing them for using the airport would make a lot more sense than building a 3rd runway.

That's exactly the point I was making, that the airport be used for O&D purposes and get rid of transfer pax by probably shifting such operations to other London airports. But that comes down to the hub airlines at LHR to do this. However, I still find the two airlines there continue to add/time flights to create a bank for connections. Eg: Asia- North America. Recent eg. VS/BA new flight additions to India timed to connect to US. If O&D is infact so strong, not sure why the two still banking on connecting pax.
 
Bhoy
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:13 am

avier wrote:
JibberJim wrote:

But it's the O&D traffic that makes it a hub, it's not Atlanta or Dubai, it's because lots of long haul places have direct flights to LHR because of the O&D demand that means that there's capacity and price competition on filling those planes (especially in Y) that makes it a hub.

The actual ideal for local Londoners is to get rid of the transit passengers, they don't need them much to keep routes open - although there will be some, and prices would be higher - but they certainly get lots of damage from them, so taxing them for using the airport would make a lot more sense than building a 3rd runway.

That's exactly the point I was making, that the airport be used for O&D purposes and get rid of transfer pax by probably shifting such operations to other London airports. But that comes down to the hub airlines at LHR to do this. However, I still find the two airlines there continue to add/time flights to create a bank for connections. Eg: Asia- North America. Recent eg. VS/BA new flight additions to India timed to connect to US. If O&D is infact so strong, not sure why the two still banking on connecting pax.

yes, O&D is strong, but smaller routes like the new PDX flight wouldn’t have the demand to support the route by itself. Add in 10-15 transfer pax, and it starts making economic sense, thereby giving the O&D folk more choice. Send that flight from a different London Airport, and the business case isn’t there anymore.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:01 pm

Going outside the box (hence speculation), no 3rd runway will be operating before 2030, and maybe 5 years later.

What percent of flights into LHR have flown less than 500 nm? This statistic alone would help us a-netters to speculate better.

Could they be accommodated by a 3rd runway within existing LHR land ownership?

Could they be flown by next generation electric hybrids with short take off and landing capability?

Or, could regional jets have special noise reductions so land and take off quietly?

I think autonomous land transportation is coming, and a lot sooner than you may think. This could do strange things to existing highways. Some say fill them up, others (me, not an expert) say maybe not. Business class land transportation seats may move a lot of people, and move them to non-ownership modes.
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YYZLGA
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:54 pm

SueD wrote:
A significant element of this development concept is predicated on a belief that Heathrow needs to enhance it’s connectivity credentials-ie more passengers arriving from XYZ and immediately departing to ABC including a political idea that regional traffic wants to return to UK rather than routing via Amsterdam Dubai or even Dublin (that case is rather weak and indeed conflicts directly with government environmental policies of reducing unnecessary domestic and short haul flights !)


I think part of the point is that if the regional UK traffic is travelling internationally via Heathrow, they could take the train for their short-haul leg (if the connection ends up being good enough) instead of flying. In a hypothetical future, someone could take a train Manchester-Old Oak Common-Heathrow, and then connect to an overseas flight. If they're flying overseas via AMS, obviously they're going to have to fly to AMS.
 
JibberJim
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:06 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
What percent of flights into LHR have flown less than 500 nm? This statistic alone would help us a-netters to speculate better.


Maybe 15% at most of flights are less than 500 nm and very few of them are on regional jets, they're mostly busy routes with lots of narrowbodies (e.g. 20 flights a day to DUB or AMS almost all on A320 / 737 ) with just a few routes that exist for local access, short distance air travel to London is almost all to other airports.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:53 pm

VS11 wrote:
They waited way way way too long to build it. All of the pax growth that would have paid for the new runway at LHR has been absorbed by neighboring airports. The most economically sensible thing to do is make London City able to handle A321XLR which will end up being used more and more on TATL.


You've never been to London City Airport have you?
It needs a 5.5’ degree steep glideslope to avoid Canary Wharf plus the short runway is surrounded by water. Its a great small airport but it has little if any room for expansion.

There is another option to extend the northern runway and split it into two. Has some serious backers as well.. controversial.. at least they wont have to knock down Willie Welsh’s office.

https://www.heathrowhub.com/our-proposal.aspx
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:06 pm

flyingphil wrote:
VS11 wrote:
They waited way way way too long to build it. All of the pax growth that would have paid for the new runway at LHR has been absorbed by neighboring airports. The most economically sensible thing to do is make London City able to handle A321XLR which will end up being used more and more on TATL.


You've never been to London City Airport have you?
It needs a 5.5’ degree steep glideslope to avoid Canary Wharf plus the short runway is surrounded by water. Its a great small airport but it has little if any room for expansion.

LHR - There is another option to extend the northern runway and split it into two. Has some serious backers as well.. controversial.. at least they wont have to knock down Willie Welsh’s office.

https://www.heathrowhub.com/our-proposal.aspx
Last edited by flyingphil on Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:07 pm

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Last edited by flyingphil on Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:08 pm

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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:09 pm

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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:10 pm

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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:15 pm

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Jetty
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:01 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
SueD wrote:
A significant element of this development concept is predicated on a belief that Heathrow needs to enhance it’s connectivity credentials-ie more passengers arriving from XYZ and immediately departing to ABC including a political idea that regional traffic wants to return to UK rather than routing via Amsterdam Dubai or even Dublin (that case is rather weak and indeed conflicts directly with government environmental policies of reducing unnecessary domestic and short haul flights !)


I think part of the point is that if the regional UK traffic is travelling internationally via Heathrow, they could take the train for their short-haul leg (if the connection ends up being good enough) instead of flying. In a hypothetical future, someone could take a train Manchester-Old Oak Common-Heathrow, and then connect to an overseas flight. If they're flying overseas via AMS, obviously they're going to have to fly to AMS.

It’s not that obvious: soon there will be 5 direct trains London - Amsterdam daily with a 900 pax capacity each. That’s more capacity than to any London airport.
 
bennett123
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:02 pm

By 2030, the situation at LHR will look very different than it does now.

No B747, probably no A319, A380 or 1st Generation B777 either.

This will make a generational change in noise and emissions.

Also the political landscape will be vastly different.

I would not bet on R3 happening.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:29 pm

It’s groundhog day again. The same questions going round and round and round again. The day HAL stop spending money on this is the day we know it’s dead.
There’s an astonishing dearth of local knowledge in this thread. I despair.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Heathrow 3rd runway 12 month delay

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:36 pm

Caluma350 wrote:
avier wrote:
What about the feasibility of a new runway for Gatwick instead? And developing better road/rail network to LGW from areas in and around the capital city.


There are already plans for a new runway at Gatwick to the south of the current runway. However Gatwick and Heathrow have different economics as Heathrow is more the major hub airport and therefore serve different purposes therefore expansion at Gatwick is not necessarily a substitute for expanding Heathrow.


Both LHR and LGW could easily use an additional runway right now. Really they could both use two new runways. That would add lots more flexibiliy in scheduling and operations. LHR is at about 99% of capacity. There is no spare slot capacity to deal with weather and other issues that could cause delays. Most anywhere else in the world that had a hub with as much traffic as LHR would have 4 or more runways.
 
YYZLGA
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:37 am

Jetty wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:
SueD wrote:
A significant element of this development concept is predicated on a belief that Heathrow needs to enhance it’s connectivity credentials-ie more passengers arriving from XYZ and immediately departing to ABC including a political idea that regional traffic wants to return to UK rather than routing via Amsterdam Dubai or even Dublin (that case is rather weak and indeed conflicts directly with government environmental policies of reducing unnecessary domestic and short haul flights !)


I think part of the point is that if the regional UK traffic is travelling internationally via Heathrow, they could take the train for their short-haul leg (if the connection ends up being good enough) instead of flying. In a hypothetical future, someone could take a train Manchester-Old Oak Common-Heathrow, and then connect to an overseas flight. If they're flying overseas via AMS, obviously they're going to have to fly to AMS.

It’s not that obvious: soon there will be 5 direct trains London - Amsterdam daily with a 900 pax capacity each. That’s more capacity than to any London airport.


Replace AMS with FRA if you want, but the point is that AMS-London is still going to be almost four hours by train to St. Pancras, and then you still have to get to Heathrow from there. It's fine for O&D between the two cities, but that's never going going to be competitive with air to catch a connecting flight from Heathrow. From Manchester, especially if HS2 is built, the travel time will be well under two hours, which is quite competitive with catching a domestic connecting flight.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:48 am

YYZLGA wrote:
Jetty wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:

I think part of the point is that if the regional UK traffic is travelling internationally via Heathrow, they could take the train for their short-haul leg (if the connection ends up being good enough) instead of flying. In a hypothetical future, someone could take a train Manchester-Old Oak Common-Heathrow, and then connect to an overseas flight. If they're flying overseas via AMS, obviously they're going to have to fly to AMS.

It’s not that obvious: soon there will be 5 direct trains London - Amsterdam daily with a 900 pax capacity each. That’s more capacity than to any London airport.


Replace AMS with FRA if you want, but the point is that AMS-London is still going to be almost four hours by train to St. Pancras, and then you still have to get to Heathrow from there. It's fine for O&D between the two cities, but that's never going going to be competitive with air to catch a connecting flight from Heathrow. From Manchester, especially if HS2 is built, the travel time will be well under two hours, which is quite competitive with catching a domestic connecting flight.


There is a catch 22 with rail: the better the connection (eg with HS2) the greater market share on p2p it will take from air, making the air service itself less viable.

Ultimately, if LHR, AMS, CDG, FRA offer pretty much the same connecting service, but LHR is more expensive it will attract less connecting traffic on common routes.
 
jomur
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:51 am

This is NOT a political delay like all the previous ones, its just the CAA basically saying you cannot spend too much money until planning permission is finalised. Heathrow was/is trying to get as much as done before having planning approval. It will be just like you can not build a new home if you don't have planning permission first and all the CAA is worried about is the airport passing on unnecessary costs if it all falls through.
 
JibberJim
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:21 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
There is a catch 22 with rail: the better the connection (eg with HS2) the greater market share on p2p it will take from air, making the air service itself less viable.


Lots of air services to London are currently subsidised by the non London end of the route, this shows there's lots of routes where Londoners aren't actually interested enough to fly to direct to pay even the current prices, so many services may well leave London, but the local folk - who take most of the costs, aren't actually the ones clamouring for the service, the people of west London will not be significantly hurt by losing direct service to a 3rd tier China city, or that 20th daily to New York, especially with capacity still being available at other London airports it just means a switch to one of those.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Status on London Heathrow's 3rd Runway?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:42 pm

jomur wrote:
This is NOT a political delay like all the previous ones, its just the CAA basically saying you cannot spend too much money until planning permission is finalised. Heathrow was/is trying to get as much as done before having planning approval. It will be just like you can not build a new home if you don't have planning permission first and all the CAA is worried about is the airport passing on unnecessary costs if it all falls through.

It makes sense to me. Suppose CAA turns on the money taps now, then the planning officials are going to go through the process with lots of public money already spent on the project which could unduly influence them. CAA is in essence favoring neutrality by not spending money now, along with not spending money on a project that will face lots of opposition while gaining planning permission thus may come to naught. LHR is a corporate property, its investors should deal with the risks they face, they are the ones who will gain if they get the 3rd runway.
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