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astuteman
Posts: 7237
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:59 am

mjoelnir wrote:
End of year numbers for the A330:

net orders all A330 = 89,, all orders = 1823
net orders A330neo = 99, orders = 337

deliveries all A330 = 53 equals rate 4.4 per month, backlog all A330 = 331
deliveries A330neo = 41, backlog now 292

A330neo orders divided by deliveries 99 / 41 = 2.41

40 undisclosed A330-900 orders. I would assume that being Chinese orders

A great year for the A330neo.


And just to point out, the delivery rate is an increase on 2018's figure.
Which implies that the A330NEO is turning a corner on production rate.
And as you point out, the net orders cover this off nearly 2 1/2 times.
And the current backlog covers the current delivery rate for about 5.6 years.
Expect deliveries to continue to rise.
With the 787 planning a rate reduction in 2020, I don't see how 2019 can now be considered anything other than a stellar year for the A330 NEO.

Rgds
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:34 am

astuteman wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
End of year numbers for the A330:

net orders all A330 = 89,, all orders = 1823
net orders A330neo = 99, orders = 337

deliveries all A330 = 53 equals rate 4.4 per month, backlog all A330 = 331
deliveries A330neo = 41, backlog now 292

A330neo orders divided by deliveries 99 / 41 = 2.41

40 undisclosed A330-900 orders. I would assume that being Chinese orders

A great year for the A330neo.


And just to point out, the delivery rate is an increase on 2018's figure.
Which implies that the A330NEO is turning a corner on production rate.
And as you point out, the net orders cover this off nearly 2 1/2 times.
And the current backlog covers the current delivery rate for about 5.6 years.
Expect deliveries to continue to rise.
With the 787 planning a rate reduction in 2020, I don't see how 2019 can now be considered anything other than a stellar year for the A330 NEO.

Rgds


I was talking about a planed rate 5 for the A330 FAL this year somewhere else. Airbus has to decide if that is enough for now.
 
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flee
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:43 am

2019 appears to be a year that is like other years - steady sales with small orders picked up from many parties and a sprinkling of larger orders from larger airlines/lessors. That was how the A330 used to sell and it appears that more airlines/lessors are starting to pick up the A330Neo for their fleets. Rate 4 looks like a good ramp up rate for a new model in its first full year of deliveries. Perhaps 2020 will see rate 5.
 
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Polot
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:16 am

astuteman wrote:

And just to point out, the delivery rate is an increase on 2018's figure.
Which implies that the A330NEO is turning a corner on production rate.

While that is true it is not a great comparison and you are drawing the wrong conclusion from it. Airbus delivered 4 more A330s in 2019 (53 vs 49). But Neo deliveries only started in November 2018. Some of the A330neo deliveries in 2019 were frames built in 2018 (or earlier), which obviously positively effects 2019 delivery numbers and negatively effects 2018 numbers.

The delivery rates suggest production of the A330 has been relatively consistent through the Neo, which isn’t that surprising since it is just a variant and many of the engine delays were front loaded in the delayed first deliveries. There wasn’t a major production “corner” that Airbus had to “turn” with Neo ramp up.
 
astuteman
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:42 pm

Polot wrote:
astuteman wrote:

And just to point out, the delivery rate is an increase on 2018's figure.
Which implies that the A330NEO is turning a corner on production rate.

While that is true it is not a great comparison and you are drawing the wrong conclusion from it. Airbus delivered 4 more A330s in 2019 (53 vs 49). But Neo deliveries only started in November 2018. Some of the A330neo deliveries in 2019 were frames built in 2018 (or earlier), which obviously positively effects 2019 delivery numbers and negatively effects 2018 numbers.

The delivery rates suggest production of the A330 has been relatively consistent through the Neo, which isn’t that surprising since it is just a variant and many of the engine delays were front loaded in the delayed first deliveries. There wasn’t a major production “corner” that Airbus had to “turn” with Neo ramp up.


Sorry, but I don't agree with you at all here.
The whole conversation dynamic on A-net in the last year or so has been around the trend of reduction for the A330 production, of whatever type, and what that implies for the ability or otherwise for Airbus to offer it at attractive prices when offered against a 787 being produced at much higher volume.
It's the primary reason that most of the NEO detractors have written it off.

The fact that the A330 is seeing an increase in production rate at the same time the 787 is planning a rate reduction is deeply significant to the long-term welfare of the A330 as a programme in my view. :yes:

The A330 has gone from 103 deliveries in 2015 to 67 in 2017 to 49 in 2018, whilst at the same time the 787 has gone from 135 to 145, and is likely to be higher for 2019
Which is why the turnaround really matters.
60 x A330 sales against 120 x 787 sales in 2020, say, is a significantly different competitive position to 40 x A330 sales and 160 x 787 sales

The A330 has turned a corner, and by definition it is the NEO that is driving that.
The A330NEO has secured 99 net orders in 2019, 24 more than the 75 that the 787 had secured up to end of November, including the 30 for EK.

Did anyone here start 2019 thinking that the A330NEO would secure 99 net orders? I suspect not.

Rgds
 
tealnz
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:08 pm

astuteman wrote:
The A330 has turned a corner, and by definition it is the NEO that is driving that.
The A330NEO has secured 99 net orders in 2019, 24 more than the 75 that the 787 had secured up to end of November, including the 30 for EK

Hard to argue with the numbers.
:knockout:
 
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Polot
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:37 pm

astuteman wrote:
...

Ok, but none of that is reflected in 2019 deliveries vs 2018 deliveries which is what I quoted. A330 production rate increase has not occurred yet.

I’m not denying that 2019 was not a great year for the A330neo a turning point for the program, but that is because of the orders, not 2019 deliveries (which would have been the same even if 2019 was a crappy year for the Neo in terms of orders).
 
astuteman
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Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:07 am

Polot wrote:
astuteman wrote:
...

Ok, but none of that is reflected in 2019 deliveries vs 2018 deliveries which is what I quoted. A330 production rate increase has not occurred yet. .


53 deliveries in 2019 versus 49 in 2018? What is that if not an increase? :scratchchin:

Rgds
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:35 am

astuteman wrote:
Polot wrote:
astuteman wrote:
...

Ok, but none of that is reflected in 2019 deliveries vs 2018 deliveries which is what I quoted. A330 production rate increase has not occurred yet. .


53 deliveries in 2019 versus 49 in 2018? What is that if not an increase? :scratchchin:

Rgds

I have to agree with Polot, 49 to 53 is not a big ramp for the A330 line, but many here on a.net expected production to go lower not up. I expect 60 frames this year. If the orders keep on coming we will see the next ramp up next year..
 
RJMAZ
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:03 am

astuteman wrote:
Did anyone here start 2019 thinking that the A330NEO would secure 99 net orders? I suspect not.

Rgds

I did and I even said it would be at the expense of the A350-900 which only had 22 orders in 2019.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/hk-ai ... 99.article

The A330NEO orderbook was critically low 12 months ago. I said Airbus had the choice of a further rate cut or to sell the A330NEO cheap. This year they prioritised the A330NEO over the A350. I wouldn't be celebrating. Airbus just cancelled the A350 production rate increase from 10 to 13. It will now be staying at 10.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-new ... 92443.html

I have been saying for a couple years now that the A330NEO is directly competiting with and hurting the A350. It is unprecedented for a manufacturer to have two families that close together. Even the A330 and A340 that shared a fuselage had a greater MTOW difference. 233t to 275t versus 251t to 280t.

Now if Airbus prioritises the A330NEO again in 2020 then the A350 backlog will reduce significantly.

Airbus originally wanted the A350 at 13 a month and the A330NEO at 6 at month for lower production costs The market can probably only sustain 12 Airbus widebodies a month while maintaining a good margin. If Airbus makes 15 a month then the profit margin had to reduce to justify retiring frames earlier.

Airbus would be better off producing A350's at say 14 a month and to produce no A330NEO's.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:40 am

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Did anyone here start 2019 thinking that the A330NEO would secure 99 net orders? I suspect not.

Rgds

I did and I even said it would be at the expense of the A350-900 which only had 22 orders in 2019.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/hk-ai ... 99.article

The A330NEO orderbook was critically low 12 months ago. I said Airbus had the choice of a further rate cut or to sell the A330NEO cheap. This year they prioritised the A330NEO over the A350. I wouldn't be celebrating. Airbus just cancelled the A350 production rate increase from 10 to 13. It will now be staying at 10.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-new ... 92443.html

I have been saying for a couple years now that the A330NEO is directly competiting with and hurting the A350. It is unprecedented for a manufacturer to have two families that close together. Even the A330 and A340 that shared a fuselage had a greater MTOW difference. 233t to 275t versus 251t to 280t.

Now if Airbus prioritises the A330NEO again in 2020 then the A350 backlog will reduce significantly.

Airbus originally wanted the A350 at 13 a month and the A330NEO at 6 at month for lower production costs The market can probably only sustain 12 Airbus widebodies a month while maintaining a good margin. If Airbus makes 15 a month then the profit margin had to reduce to justify retiring frames earlier.

Airbus would be better off producing A350's at say 14 a month and to produce no A330NEO's.


The main point to the low net order numbers for the A350 are cancellations not orders and the cancellations are no based on replacement by the A330neo.
Gross orders were 113 A350 to 104 A330neo. Cancellations were 79 A350 to 5 A330neo ( 15 all A330).
There is a slump over the whole wide body sales. We do not have the Boeing end of the year numbers, but we do know that cancellations will have a big influence.
 
RawSushi
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:40 am

The A330neo was struggling sales-wise against the 787 because of Boeing's relentless cost-cutting program, negating much of the A330neo's price advantage. Many of those cost savings were likely achieved at the expense of safety. The 787 most likely remains a safe enough plane to fly in, but with all the scrutiny they are receiving now, it's very unlikely that they can continue to save costs at the same rate. Furthermore, with the MAX saga putting a huge strain on Boeing's relationships and reputation with the supply chain, it's also very unlikely that they will be able to squeeze suppliers like they used to.

Airbus can make use of this opportunity to bring the A330neo back to a position where it can compete effectively with the 787 on price again. Selling and delivering more A330neos will mean more economies of scale can be reaped further lowering costs.

So in conclusion, Boeing's inability to continue to cut costs on the 787 in the same manner that they have done before could be another reason why 2019 was a turning point for the A330neo program.
 
majano
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:22 am

mjoelnir wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Polot wrote:
Ok, but none of that is reflected in 2019 deliveries vs 2018 deliveries which is what I quoted. A330 production rate increase has not occurred yet. .


53 deliveries in 2019 versus 49 in 2018? What is that if not an increase? :scratchchin:

Rgds

I have to agree with Polot, 49 to 53 is not a big ramp for the A330 line, but many here on a.net expected production to go lower not up. I expect 60 frames this year. If the orders keep on coming we will see the next ramp up next year..

An 8.2% is noticeable. To say a production increase has not occurred is factually incorrect.
 
majano
Posts: 295
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:35 am

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Did anyone here start 2019 thinking that the A330NEO would secure 99 net orders? I suspect not.

Rgds

I did and I even said it would be at the expense of the A350-900 which only had 22 orders in 2019.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/hk-ai ... 99.article

The A330NEO orderbook was critically low 12 months ago. I said Airbus had the choice of a further rate cut or to sell the A330NEO cheap. This year they prioritised the A330NEO over the A350. I wouldn't be celebrating. Airbus just cancelled the A350 production rate increase from 10 to 13. It will now be staying at 10.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-new ... 92443.html

I have been saying for a couple years now that the A330NEO is directly competiting with and hurting the A350. It is unprecedented for a manufacturer to have two families that close together. Even the A330 and A340 that shared a fuselage had a greater MTOW difference. 233t to 275t versus 251t to 280t.

Now if Airbus prioritises the A330NEO again in 2020 then the A350 backlog will reduce significantly.

Airbus originally wanted the A350 at 13 a month and the A330NEO at 6 at month for lower production costs The market can probably only sustain 12 Airbus widebodies a month while maintaining a good margin. If Airbus makes 15 a month then the profit margin had to reduce to justify retiring frames earlier.

Airbus would be better off producing A350's at say 14 a month and to produce no A330NEO's.

This is complete rubbish. Firstly the A350 had more than 22 sales in 2019. As other members have said, the widebody market has been muted in recent years putting pressure on production rates across the board.

What is really perplexing with your post though is assuming that airlines would just accept delivery of 14 A350 a month just because it suits Airbus' bottomline to do so. The A330 and A350 are in competitive markets and airlines buy them for particular missions. You cannot expect them to buy a 280T frame instead of an A330 (242T - 251T) when there is a capable 254T frame available from Boeing.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7237
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:19 am

mjoelnir wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Polot wrote:
Ok, but none of that is reflected in 2019 deliveries vs 2018 deliveries which is what I quoted. A330 production rate increase has not occurred yet. .


53 deliveries in 2019 versus 49 in 2018? What is that if not an increase? :scratchchin:

Rgds

I have to agree with Polot, 49 to 53 is not a big ramp for the A330 line, but many here on a.net expected production to go lower not up. I expect 60 frames this year. If the orders keep on coming we will see the next ramp up next year..


You've got to love A-net.

Firstly, Polot did not say "49 to 53 is not a big ramp for the A330 line", he said "there has been no production ramp up", which is patently false.
Then you go on to make my point for me. Many on here expected it to go lower, which is why even that small increase matters. It IS a turning point :yes:

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Did anyone here start 2019 thinking that the A330NEO would secure 99 net orders? I suspect not.

Rgds

I did and I even said it would be at the expense of the A350-900 which only had 22 orders in 2019.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/hk-ai ... 99.article

The A330NEO orderbook was critically low 12 months ago. I said Airbus had the choice of a further rate cut or to sell the A330NEO cheap. This year they prioritised the A330NEO over the A350. I wouldn't be celebrating. Airbus just cancelled the A350 production rate increase from 10 to 13. It will now be staying at 10.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airbus-new ... 92443.html

.


Firstly virtually all of the A350 cancellations were as a result of the customer airlines situation, and nothing whatsoever to do with Airbus prioritising the A330. Which is why the 103 gross orders for the A350 matter as a demonstration of demand.
And secondly, there was never a decision to go from 10 to 13 to cancel - it was only ever discussion, and therefore completely different to the 787 that has gone to 14 and now has to cut back.

Airbus will deliver more widebodys from the combined A330 and A350 lines than they ever could from just one of them

Rgds
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:26 am

RawSushi wrote:
The A330neo was struggling sales-wise against the 787 because of Boeing's relentless cost-cutting program, negating much of the A330neo's price advantage. Many of those cost savings were likely achieved at the expense of safety. The 787 most likely remains a safe enough plane to fly in, but with all the scrutiny they are receiving now, it's very unlikely that they can continue to save costs at the same rate. Furthermore, with the MAX saga putting a huge strain on Boeing's relationships and reputation with the supply chain, it's also very unlikely that they will be able to squeeze suppliers like they used to.

Airbus can make use of this opportunity to bring the A330neo back to a position where it can compete effectively with the 787 on price again. Selling and delivering more A330neos will mean more economies of scale can be reaped further lowering costs.

So in conclusion, Boeing's inability to continue to cut costs on the 787 in the same manner that they have done before could be another reason why 2019 was a turning point for the A330neo program.


I think the low cost of the 787 opposite the A330neo was and is just another a.net myth. It started out with Hawaiian canceling their A330-800 order and buying 787-8. That was at that time the only A330-800 order and Boeing made a huge effort to shift that USA airline while trying to kill the A330-800.
Since than there has not been any significant sign of Boeing being able to underbid with the 787.
The order curve for the A330neo is pretty normal. A batch of orders at or shortly after launch, a slow period when airlines watch past EIS and now airlines having real data order in good numbers.
Fore the 787 Boeing will have to cut the production rate and Airbus will be able to up the production rate for the A330.
 
SanDiegoLover
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:33 am

I don’t understand why so many posters are obsessed about the A330NEO vs 787. From each corporate viewpoints they are completely different. Boeing has to cover nearly $25 billion to $30 billion in sunk development costs. Airbus only coughed up what? $1 billion - $2 billion of their own money outside of the engine manufacturers?

If Airbus sells 500 or 600 A330NEOs they will make a very healthy return on their investment plus a nice profit margin. It also forces Boeing to stay honest and in the ball park on their 787 pricing. The A330 supply chain, buildings, and other assets have been paid off or fully depreciated by now.

Likewise, Boeing doesn’t need to sell 1,000 of its 777X, and Airbus has to recoup $15 billion or more for the A350 program.
 
astuteman
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:55 am

SanDiegoLover wrote:
I don’t understand why so many posters are obsessed about the A330NEO vs 787. From each corporate viewpoints they are completely different. Boeing has to cover nearly $25 billion to $30 billion in sunk development costs. Airbus only coughed up what? $1 billion - $2 billion of their own money outside of the engine manufacturers?

If Airbus sells 500 or 600 A330NEOs they will make a very healthy return on their investment plus a nice profit margin. It also forces Boeing to stay honest and in the ball park on their 787 pricing. The A330 supply chain, buildings, and other assets have been paid off or fully depreciated by now.

Likewise, Boeing doesn’t need to sell 1,000 of its 777X, and Airbus has to recoup $15 billion or more for the A350 program.


You make a good point, although I'm not so sure how valid the comparison with the 777X is. Whereas the A330NEO has the same wings and fuselage as its predecessor, the 777X has 2 new fuselage lengths and completely new CFRP wings, not to mention a completely dedicated engine. The programme cost was expected to be $5Bn back in 2013.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777X

I can't imagine that has done anything other than gone up, with the programme experiencing a substantial delay

Rgds
 
RJMAZ
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:14 am

majano wrote:
This is complete rubbish. Firstly the A350 had more than 22 sales in 2019. As other members have said, the widebody market has been muted in recent years putting pressure on production rates across the board.

Read the link.

The A350 order book has increased by only 114 in the last six years. That is only 19 A350 aircraft sold per year. It is not complete rubbish. The A350 is having its legs cut from underneith it by cheap A330NEO's.

majano wrote:
You cannot expect them to buy a 280T frame instead of an A330 (242T - 251T) when there is a capable 254T frame available from Boeing.

The A350-900 is by far the best widebody on the market and is superior to anything Boeing has to offer.

The 280t A350-900 is actually a perfect alternative to the 251t A330-900. The A350-900 can simply take off at around 260t and carry the same payload equal distance and with equal fuel burn to the 251t A330-900. That extra 20t of available MTOW is simply extra range or payload.

On a 7000nm long haul route that extra capability allows the A350-900 to carry 40% more payload while burning only 10% more fuel. This means that the A350-900 would be burning 25% less fuel per kg of payload compared to the A330-900.

mjoelnir wrote:
The main point to the low net order numbers for the A350 are cancellations not orders

This is not a one off case of cancellations.

The A350 gets orders and a few years later a huge portion of them get cancelled.

This is a chicken before the egg situation. The A350 needs to ramp production up to get the production costs down. This is what Boeing did with the 787. It needs to sell discounted A350's hoping that the production costs will come down by the time they need to be delivered.

If the A350 keeps averaging only 19 orders per year like it has for the last 6 years the production rate will have to be slashed. The cost of production per aircraft will sky rocket and the profit will tumble. If this widebody slump continues for another 2 years Airbus will be in a very tough situation. At the low production rates both the A330 and A350 will be coming out the door near cost price due to the higher production costs.

In hindsite Airbus should have pumped out discounted A330-300's to bridge the gap and compete with early 787's. They would be now pushing airlines entirely towards the A350 allowing a production rate of 14+.
 
Kikko19
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:51 am

How many wb orders get 330 neo +a350 compared to 787 + 777x?
 
astuteman
Posts: 7237
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:07 am

RJMAZ wrote:
If this widebody slump continues for another 2 years Airbus will be in a very tough situation. At the low production rates both the A330 and A350 will be coming out the door near cost price due to the higher production costs.


Mmm. Perhaps a bit of context is required here.

Firstly a couple of acknowledgements.
The widebody slump as you called it is a real thing IMO.
In 787/777, A330/A350 space, cancellations in 2019 were (till November for Boeing)

A330 :- -15
A350 :- -81

B787 :- -27
B777 :- -41

Perhaps noteworthy that the largest cancellations are in the largest models....

Secondly I agree with you that the A330NEO has cannibalised sales of the A350. That can't be denied. There are too many conversions out in the public domain

But..
regarding Airbus's supposed "tough situation"..

Some stats..

A330 - 2019 deliveries = 53. Backlog = 331. Production rate cover = 6.25 years
A350 - 2019 deliveries = 112. Backlog = 579. Production rate cover = 5.17 years

B787 - 2019 deliveries = 150. Backlog = 556. Production rate cover = 3.70 years
B777 - 2019 deliveries = 44. Backlog = 79. Production rate cover = 1.8 years
B777X - no deliveries Backlog = 309

Assumes 13 x 787 deliveries in Dec 19 and 4 x 777 deliveries.

The two companies have different problems.
Airbus has backlogs of 5-6 years which is too long to be competitive, and needs to increase production, certainly in 2020.
Boeing has backlogs of 1.8 to 3.7 years which is too short and needs to cut production, certainly in 2020. 777X will come onto the delivery pitch in 2021 at the earliest.

I would propose that in the mainstream widebodys (A330/A350 and 777/787) it is not Airbus that is in a tough situation just now. Whatever you might say, the A350 still has a bigger (and considerably higher value) backlog than the 787

Now some history. In this mainstream space, deliveries over the last 6 years have been:-

2014 - A330 = 108, A350 = 1, total = 109. B787 = 114, B777 = 99, total = 213. Overall = 322
2015 - A330 = 103, A350 = 14, total = 117. B787 = 135, B777 = 98, total = 233. Overall = 350
2016 - A330 = 66, A350 = 49, total = 115. B787 = 137, B777 = 99, total = 236. Overall = 351
2017 - A330 = 67, A350 = 78, total = 145. B787 = 136, B777 = 74, total = 210. Overall = 355
2018 - A330 = 49, A350 = 93, total = 142. B787 = 145, B777 = 48, total = 193. Overall = 335
2019 - A330 = 53, A350 = 112, total = 165. B787 = 150, B777 = 44, total = 194. Overall = 359

Airbus has gone up from 109 deliveries to 165 between 2014 and 2019
Boeing has declined from 236 deliveries to 194 deliveries between 2016 and 2019.

Projecting some figures for 2020:-

2020 - A330 = 65, A350 = 115, total = 180. B787 = 140, B777 = 40, total = 180. Overall = 360

Airbus will have gone from 33% market share to 50% in the vital mainstream widebodys.
There is no way, on this Earth, that Airbus could EVER expect to get 180 x A350's in a year out of a single programme :shakehead:
Which is why Airbus should be, and will be, celebrating the A330's success.

Obviously these figures exclude the VLA's (A380, 747 - for me irrelevant now, and 767 freighters, which play in a different space)

Rgds
 
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scbriml
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:45 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I did and I even said it would be at the expense of the A350-900 which only had 22 orders in 2019.


For goodness sake, if you're going to quote numbers, at least use the correct ones! It's not difficult to check, is it?

2019:
A350 - 113 gross orders, 32 net orders.

113 gross is more than 787's gross number through November (accepting they could easily add more in December).

As others have pointed out, Airbus has had a significant clearout of the whole order book in 2019 from A220s right up to A380s. You need to look at the whole picture, not focus on one specific metric.

mjoelnir wrote:
There is a slump over the whole wide body sales. We do not have the Boeing end of the year numbers, but we do know that cancellations will have a big influence.


Wait, it's almost as though you're looking at the whole picture. :o

Kikko19 wrote:
How many wb orders get 330 neo +a350 compared to 787 + 777x?


That's an interesting question.

2019:
A330 + A350 = 217 gross, 131 net

Through end Nov (we don't have Dec numbers yet):
777 + 787 = 149 gross, 81 net

astuteman wrote:
Now some history. In this mainstream space, deliveries over the last 6 years have been:-

2014 - A330 = 108, A350 = 1, total = 109. B787 = 114, B777 = 99, total = 213. Overall = 322
2015 - A330 = 103, A350 = 14, total = 117. B787 = 135, B777 = 98, total = 233. Overall = 350
2016 - A330 = 66, A350 = 49, total = 115. B787 = 137, B777 = 99, total = 236. Overall = 351
2017 - A330 = 67, A350 = 78, total = 145. B787 = 136, B777 = 74, total = 210. Overall = 355
2018 - A330 = 49, A350 = 93, total = 142. B787 = 145, B777 = 48, total = 193. Overall = 335
2019 - A330 = 53, A350 = 112, total = 165. B787 = 150, B777 = 44, total = 194. Overall = 359

Airbus has gone up from 109 deliveries to 165 between 2014 and 2019
Boeing has declined from 236 deliveries to 194 deliveries between 2016 and 2019.

Projecting some figures for 2020:-

2020 - A330 = 65, A350 = 115, total = 180. B787 = 140, B777 = 40, total = 180. Overall = 360

Airbus will have gone from 33% market share to 50% in the vital mainstream widebodys.
There is no way, on this Earth, that Airbus could EVER expect to get 180 x A350's in a year out of a single programme
Which is why Airbus should be, and will be, celebrating the A330's success.


Ah, more looking at the whole picture. :yes:

Claiming that Airbus is facing serious issues is to simply ignore that Boeing faces similar as well as significant other challenges which are going to have a big impact on their ability to compete in the next few years.
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Planetalk
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:08 am

Very excited to have my first ride on this bird this week from Lisbon to Miami. This is probably the most comfortable ride out there now for economy passengers, given the 8 across in the A330 is better than any of the 787/777/A350 configs and now it has the updated interior from the A350. The 767 is obviously great as well but does show its age a bit.

Great news for passengers that it's doing so well.
 
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Polot
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:52 am

astuteman wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
astuteman wrote:

53 deliveries in 2019 versus 49 in 2018? What is that if not an increase? :scratchchin:

Rgds

I have to agree with Polot, 49 to 53 is not a big ramp for the A330 line, but many here on a.net expected production to go lower not up. I expect 60 frames this year. If the orders keep on coming we will see the next ramp up next year..


You've got to love A-net.

Firstly, Polot did not say "49 to 53 is not a big ramp for the A330 line", he said "there has been no production ramp up", which is patently false.
Then you go on to make my point for me. Many on here expected it to go lower, which is why even that small increase matters. It IS a turning point :yes:


Come on Astuteman, I know you are smarter than this. You are confusing delivery rate with production rate. The two are not the same. By that logic Boeing barely produced any 737Maxes last year, and we all know that is not the case.

As I mentioned in my very first reply with you some of the frames delivered in 2019 where not produced in 2019 (and I’m not talking about planes delivered in January that were built in December 2018) and therefore don’t count towards 2019 “production rate”. For example:

Azul’s first A339, delivered May 2019, was built and fully painted (sans engines) in summer 2018. Air Mauritius’s first A330neo, delivered in April 2019, rolled out the FAL in July 2018. TAP received CS-TUA in April 2019. You may recognize that as the frame that Airbus was using for its Neo world tour in the summer/fall 2018. Delta’s first A339, delivered at the end of May 2019, came out of the FAL in mid November 2018. There are probably more out there (I can be bothered to check when every plane rolled off the FAL that Airbus delivered in early 2019). 2018 deliveries were lower than predicted because of delays due to RR, both because of their inability to provide engines and the fact that their delivery delays pushed back Neo certification.

A330 production rate in 2019 was not higher than in 2018. Looking at delivery rates doesn’t tell you the planes that were built but not delivered (there are, for example, some nice HNA A333s built in 2018 that are still stored, along with a Rwandair Neo and a exWOW Neo yet to be delivered). There are plenty of articles out there talking about A330 production rates in 2019. Airbus did not secretly raise it.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:55 am

astuteman wrote:
Some stats..

A330 - 2019 deliveries = 53. Backlog = 331. Production rate cover = 6.25 years
A350 - 2019 deliveries = 112. Backlog = 579. Production rate cover = 5.17 years

B787 - 2019 deliveries = 150. Backlog = 556. Production rate cover = 3.70 years

This is very flawed as it assumes no new orders.

The 787 for instance has been been averaging an orderbook increase of 81 per year for the last 6 years. The A350 orderbook has been increasing by only 19 per year.

The 787 has 8 years of backlog at that rate.

The A350 has only 6.2 years of backlog at that rate.

This is the true backlog and the A350 is getting very close to requiring another rate cut. We have quite a few data points on rate increases and decreases based on the true backlog. My summary is that the production rate is cut as soon as true backlog drops below 6 years. Production rate increases if the true backlog exceeds 8 years.

The A330NEO looks healthy with the current orders however I feel there is a few existing orders that will get cancelled.

AirAsiaX is planning to quadruple its total fleet size with 77 A330NEO and 30 A321XLR aircraft. The delivery rate is for AirAsiaX is also really slow and the last A330NEO aircraft would nearly be replacing the first ones. This means the A330NEO will have empty production slots in 4-5 years. In 6-7 years time Airbus can't keep the A330NEO production line open at a rate of 1 aircraft a month just to satisfy AirAsiaX. Airbus will have to shut down the line and move the orders to the A350.

Fortunately for Boeing their 787 orders are from bluechip airlines that in my opinion have a more realistic growth plan and have not over ordered.
 
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scbriml
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:03 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
This is very flawed as it assumes no new orders.


It's an accurate snapshot of the situation today. The situation tomorrow will be different and no assumptions should be made.

RJMAZ wrote:
Fortunately for Boeing their 787 orders are from bluechip airlines that in my opinion have a more realistic growth plan and have not over ordered.


Richard? Is that you? :rotfl:
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crimsonchin
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:35 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Read the link.

The A350 order book has increased by only 114 in the last six years. That is only 19 A350 aircraft sold per year. It is not complete rubbish. The A350 is having its legs cut from underneith it by cheap A330NEO's.


Weren't most of those (especially 2019) due to cancellations, which have nothing to do with prioritising the A330 over the A350, but rather a mix of airlines changing their plans? Like people have pointed out to you, the A350 ended up with more gross orders than the A330. You must think everyone is stupid for you to try and use those numbers to aruge your (irrelevant) point.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:54 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Some stats..

A330 - 2019 deliveries = 53. Backlog = 331. Production rate cover = 6.25 years
A350 - 2019 deliveries = 112. Backlog = 579. Production rate cover = 5.17 years

B787 - 2019 deliveries = 150. Backlog = 556. Production rate cover = 3.70 years

This is very flawed as it assumes no new orders.

The 787 for instance has been been averaging an orderbook increase of 81 per year for the last 6 years. The A350 orderbook has been increasing by only 19 per year.

The 787 has 8 years of backlog at that rate.

The A350 has only 6.2 years of backlog at that rate.


cherry picking your dates.
You start at looking at 787 orders after the period when orders went completely flat for 5 years. Try 10 or 11 years back and you get a completely different result. Even looking at 5 or 7 for comparison changes the numbers considerable, because you choose the worst possible time period for the A350.

RJMAZ wrote:
This is the true backlog and the A350 is getting very close to requiring another rate cut. We have quite a few data points on rate increases and decreases based on the true backlog. My summary is that the production rate is cut as soon as true backlog drops below 6 years. Production rate increases if the true backlog exceeds 8 years.


a good invention your "true backlog" dependent on a careful chosen time frame. Does not change the fact that the current backlog of the 787 is slightly smaller than current backlog of the A350.

RJMAZ wrote:
The A330NEO looks healthy with the current orders however I feel there is a few existing orders that will get cancelled.

AirAsiaX is planning to quadruple its total fleet size with 77 A330NEO and 30 A321XLR aircraft. The delivery rate is for AirAsiaX is also really slow and the last A330NEO aircraft would nearly be replacing the first ones. This means the A330NEO will have empty production slots in 4-5 years. In 6-7 years time Airbus can't keep the A330NEO production line open at a rate of 1 aircraft a month just to satisfy AirAsiaX. Airbus will have to shut down the line and move the orders to the A350.


I understand, the A330 having a similar order history as the 787 suddenly stops to sell completely, while the 787 having had huge up and downs in sales keeps to the average of the last 6 years.

RJMAZ wrote:
Fortunately for Boeing their 787 orders are from bluechip airlines that in my opinion have a more realistic growth plan and have not over ordered.


let us look at the blue chip airlines that are not supposed to cancel. Bamboo, Etihad, Vistara, UFOs could include more Hainan, Republic of Iraq, Qatar, Okay Airways, LATAM, Korean, Jet Airways.
Perhaps all the above airlines will take all their ordered frames, but blue chip airlines look different. Yes there are blue chip airlines in the 787 order book, but also lot that I would not call blue chip or current trouble free.

So you should perhaps stop to massage the numbers to get a predetermined result.

The 787 will have to cut production rate. The production rate for the 777 is heavily dependent on the EIS of the 777-9, while orders have dried up, or are even partly canceled
The A350 will be produced at rate 10 and the A330 at 5 for 2020 tending upwards for 2021.
 
P1aneMad
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:19 pm

RJMAZ when in a hole you should really stop digging!
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:27 pm

RJMAZ wrote:

Fortunately for Boeing their 787 orders are from bluechip airlines that in my opinion have a more realistic growth plan and have not over ordered.


The A380 had a pretty big catalogue of 'blue chip' operators... how did that work out?

The only A330neo customer I can see that has possibly over-ordered is AirAsia X, but they will still take most of their order, they have already taken some (the ex-WW ordered frames). Other than that the numbers are fairly modest.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:28 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
cherry picking your dates.
You start at looking at 787 orders after the period when orders went completely flat for 5 years. Try 10 or 11 years back and you get a completely different result. Even looking at 5 or 7 for comparison changes the numbers considerable, because you choose the worst possible time period for the A350.

Your hate for Boeing is showing.

An average of the last 5-6 years is more than sufficient and is not cherry picking. Just because it makes the 787 look superior to the A350 doesn't make it wrong.

Looking at a 15 year average does not give a good idea moving forward as it is too far in the past.

With any new aircraft launch there is always a huge surge of sales in the first 3 years. This surge is nearly always followed by a few years of very low sales. The orders then stabilise to the market demand. Nearly every major program in the last few decade has followed this trend.

The A350XWB launched, first flew and entered service 3 years after the 787. This means the quiet period of 787 sales is right when the A350 had its initial surge.

If you look at the sales of the last 11 years you get the quiet period of the 787 but get the initial surge of the A350. This would be cherry picking the data in favour of the A350.

Using the last 6 years is best because both programs have become stable.
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:02 pm

Can anyone here, provide typical prices (not list prices) for A330NEO and 787?
 
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qf789
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Re: A330Neo - 2019 a great year

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:24 pm

Topic has turned into Boeing vs Airbus flamewar and is now locked
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