Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5488
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:10 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Enilria wrote:
AS shifts OAK capacity to PDX

WN must be eating AS’s lunch at OAK to Hawaii

Hey AirFi', I posted about this on another thread a while ago.

Since OAK is a fairly minor out-station for AS and a huge hub for WN, I can certainly understand AS backing off and redistributing those assets to other w/c gateways -- in this round, entirely PDX & SEA.

I hope, and expect AS will continue to grow their Island offerings from both CA focus cities which I'm sure they're more interested in fighting for. And there are certainly more connecting opportunities for AS at both SJC and SAN than at OAK!

When AS recently announced daily-double SAN-OGG service for next summer, I was certainly encouraged that they do plan on protecting their SoCal focus city routes from any competition, especially WN (which hadn't yet announced their April start-up of 2 SAN-HI routes.)

I'm wondering if AS may even go double-daily with SAN-HNL as well, seeing as WN will enter the market and HA is down-sizing their a/c on the route to a 321?

bb
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 1940
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:39 pm

aaway wrote:
MO11 wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
Could it be just a summer cancellation as it appears to start back up in August


Does this flight move an airplane in/out of maintenance at PSP?


Can't say definitively (someone else may chime in), but most likely the case since Skywest performs maintenance at PSP.


It's a shame SkyWest hasn't been able to make this route work since the Brasilias were retired.

Although LAX-PSP is a short flight, it's still a MISERABLE drive, because to drive from LAX to the Coachella Valley you either have to take I-10 through downtown Los Angeles, or go north on the 405, east on the Foothill Freeway, then the rest of the way on I-10.

I always liked sitting on the left side of the airplane flying from LAX to PSP, because due to 10,800 foot tall Mount San Jacinto rising just a mile or two west of PSP, flights had to go well south of Palm Springs and enter the Coachella Valley at Palm Desert where the mountains are lower, then do a 360 degree turn to lose altitude before lining up for the runway at PSP.
 
User avatar
BroadwayLimited
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:34 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:35 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
It's a shame SkyWest hasn't been able to make this route work since the Brasilias were retired.

I flew this route MANY times back in the early 90's with Skywest/(Delta Connection), Loved those little Brasilias, and the low altitude of that short flight! Great little flight!
Signed up for Delta and Eastern Frequent Flyer Programs August 30, 1981.
 
User avatar
BroadwayLimited
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:34 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:51 pm

"KE ICN-LAX MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]"

Looks like KE is starting a third flight on this route. Not sure if this is year round, or seasonal.

Is this because of the new JV with DL,.or is it a preemptive move to make sure possibly AA does not start the route? Or both?
Signed up for Delta and Eastern Frequent Flyer Programs August 30, 1981.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5054
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:08 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
That was fast. They are gone already?
**G4 AZA-FNL DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
**G4 FNL-LAS DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0] APR 0.6>0[0] MAY 0.6>0.4[0]


Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

Why would they need a tower to operate?
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1552
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:12 pm

SANFan wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Enilria wrote:
AS shifts OAK capacity to PDX

WN must be eating AS’s lunch at OAK to Hawaii

Hey AirFi', I posted about this on another thread a while ago.

Since OAK is a fairly minor out-station for AS and a huge hub for WN, I can certainly understand AS backing off and redistributing those assets to other w/c gateways -- in this round, entirely PDX & SEA.

I hope, and expect AS will continue to grow their Island offerings from both CA focus cities which I'm sure they're more interested in fighting for. And there are certainly more connecting opportunities for AS at both SJC and SAN than at OAK!

When AS recently announced daily-double SAN-OGG service for next summer, I was certainly encouraged that they do plan on protecting their SoCal focus city routes from any competition, especially WN (which hadn't yet announced their April start-up of 2 SAN-HI routes.)

I'm wondering if AS may even go double-daily with SAN-HNL as well, seeing as WN will enter the market and HA is down-sizing their a/c on the route to a 321?

bb


Sounds like good assessments, all. WN @ OAK is a fortress, HA is likely holing their own there especially if they are down gauging. AS still seems interested in fighting it out at SJC and SAN. They are doubling down at SAN, and isn’t AS going from 3x/4x/a week to daily on SJC-KOA/LIH or OGG?
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10373
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:26 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
That was fast. They are gone already?
**G4 AZA-FNL DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
**G4 FNL-LAS DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0] APR 0.6>0[0] MAY 0.6>0.4[0]


Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

Good info
MAH4546 wrote:
It would be a logical ad, but I doubt a priority, and UA isn’t exiting MIASFO, which is a route it doesn’t operate year-round.

Sure, but I'm sure it is an important market for LATAM to retain.
AirFiero wrote:
AS shifts OAK capacity to PDX


WN must be eating AS’s lunch at OAK to Hawaii

I kinda thought that and didn't want to start the AS food fight again, but makes sense. OAK is a WN stronghold. PDX is the same for AS. It's a logical shift.
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

DL hasn't even been able to make LAX-MIA/FLL work. I don't see hope from SFO.

But LATAM changes things and on the DL quarterly call the CEO said to one of his VPs "we haven't announced the new MIA flying yet have we?"


What’s the total demand from SFO to cities that LA serves from MIA but DL does not serve on its own metal? It’s got to be pretty small. 20 PDEW?

Good point, but I think they can't afford to shaft LATAM by cutting off their feed and forcing their former pax over ATL.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3932
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
A couple of things.
UA's yield number out of MIA-SFO is actually better than FLL-SFO. I'm not sure why they reduce MIA ahead of FLL. And that 3rd B6 flight on FLL-SFO will just pressure that yield even more. I don't see DL adding MIA-SFO before MIA-LAX. MIA-LAX would seem like an obvious add if they want to build up MIA. Either way, AA and B6 have these 2 routes dominated.


WN might be able to make FLL-OAK nonstop service work as WN already has significant market share in both the San Francisco Bay Area and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale markets to support FLL-OAK nonstop service.
 
KFTG
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:02 pm

The problem FNL has is terminal space...
They really can only support one airline.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3932
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
**AA BWI-PHX APR 2>0.4[2] MAY 2>0[1.7] JUN 2>0[0.8] JUL 2>0[1.0] AUG 2>0[0.9]


Looking at schedules around Monday, 11/18, one doesn't see a lot of competition on WAS-PHX:

1x UA IAD-PHX
3x WN BWI-PHX

I'm a little surprised WN could push AA off a route of this length where seat assignments and BOB have some value.


I can understand AA dropping BWI-PHX nonstop service since:
(a) AA has a hub at DCA in the DC/Baltimore market,
(b) AA will still be able to get passengers to DC nonstop from PHX (and vice versa) through its remaining DCA-PHX nonstops (which are operated using beyond-perimeter slot exemptions),
(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA. WN is also connecting some passengers from PHX to destinations in the Northeast (and vice versa) through BWI. BWI is also currently the only airport in the DC/Baltimore region that WN serves nonstop from PHX, whereas AA will still serve its DCA hub nonstop from PHX once it discontinues PHX-BWI nonstop service.
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 445
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:42 am

KFTG wrote:
The problem FNL has is terminal space...
They really can only support one airline.


Well seeing as they have zero now, that shouldn't be an issue. Probably same facility they used last time at worst.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8759
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:58 am

jplatts wrote:
(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA.


Again, I acknowledge I missed DCA-PHX on AA.

BWI isn't some podunk airport. It's #24 in domestic O&D - right behind DCA, ahead of PDX for 12 months ending 3/19. If WAS travelers are all perfectly agnostic between DCA/IAD/BWI, great for AA. I don't believe it.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1271
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:26 am

How is it UA cannot make SFO-MIA work year round? Must be a sign there's not a lot of business traffic on the route.
 
fiddlerkrt
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:23 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:42 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA.


Again, I acknowledge I missed DCA-PHX on AA.

BWI isn't some podunk airport. It's #24 in domestic O&D - right behind DCA, ahead of PDX for 12 months ending 3/19. If WAS travelers are all perfectly agnostic between DCA/IAD/BWI, great for AA. I don't believe it.


I did not know that AA was 3 daily on PHX-DCA, so this certainly helps explain why they are ending service on PHX-BWI. Even just a few years ago, AA did not have this level of frequency to DCA and were able to maintain 2 daily on BWI-PHX so I suspect this is part of the story.

I think it's worth looking at AA's level of service from BWI to its other hub airports.
(a) BWI-ORD is 4 daily and they have upgauged some of these flights to mainline now (it used to be exclusively Eagle).
(b) PHL is back up to 5 or 6 daily (was down to 3 at one point!).
(c) CLT is up to 9 mainline flights (used to be just 8 I think), some of which are the A321.
(d) DFW has not increased but now has access to secondary California markets which were only resumed recently (BUR and SBA are the ones which come to mind). Therefore, PHX has very few unique destinations that can be accessed via the other hubs.

I suspect a lot of connecting traffic now flows over CLT, ORD, DFW, and PHL hence no need to compete with WN on BWI-PHX. It's a shame to see them leave although AA is maintaining a much healthier schedule from BWI than UA.

And thanks, enilria, for these wonderful OAG threads every week.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1428
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:39 am

32andBelow wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
That was fast. They are gone already?
**G4 AZA-FNL DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
**G4 FNL-LAS DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0] APR 0.6>0[0] MAY 0.6>0.4[0]


Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

Why would they need a tower to operate?


They don’t NEED one, but G4 wants one, in some form.
 
Gregd75
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:11 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:10 am

bluefltspecial wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
DY is cutting back more at JFK. The MAD route getting axed isn't surprising. There is plenty of capacity with IB, AA, and DL. All of the DY Scandinavian routes out of JFK I think have gone seasonal (summer only) for 2020. With CDG cut from EWR early this year and with the Stewart route cuts, I guess DY can't claim it carries more people out of NY for much longer.


I think you're a bit lost in your statement. Norwegian did not operate CDG-EWR, they operated ORY-EWR.

Their claim was not "carrying more people out of NY" I believe it was something along the line of 'the largest international airline at JFK" a title which I doubted at first and researched and came to find out it was in terms of actual passengers carried. They had taken the title from BA, which operates mostly High J config 747s, and those aircraft are not always at capacity, where Norwegian seems to run around 85%+ load factor from JFK.

I'm guessing Norwegian will be going back and forth with BA for the title this summer.

Today for an example has the following departures
AMS x1 @ 344 pax
LGW x 3 @ 338 pax = 1014
FCO x 1 @344
CDG x1 @ 344
OSL x 1 @ 291
MAD x 1 @ 344
BCN x 1 @ 344

Total current Winter possible pax = 3025 seats on a full schedule day
* not every day operates full schedule

announced Summer will add
x5 week ATH (1720 seats)
additional x4(11 weekly/2 partial daily?) CDG (1376 seats)*
additional x5 (25 weekly/4 partial daily?) LGW (1720 seats)*
Thats an additional 4000+ seats a week or rough avg 575 seats a day extra
*not sure of the exact schedules, and don't have time to research on my phone

In comparison,
BA has 12 flights a day on High J 747s
12 flights @ 275 seats each =3300
Add in the Gatwick flight and you're around 3600

Moving on.

Norwegian seemingly has finally started to focus not just on load factor but apparently yield. The Madrid flights in summer I know were always full, but we know the full aircraft does not mean profit. I'm guessing they will try to push MAD through connections of OSL or others.

While the summer schedules are not finalized, there is seems to be no listing of CPH or ARN as of now in the GDS non-stop from JFK.
We'll see if the aircraft schedule allows for it, and of course, if they can get the slots.


Plus LCY - JFK on BA001

So, we’d need to count BA capacity from LHR, LGW and LCY to JFK and EWK if we really want to identify who is the biggest International carrier flying to New York.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5054
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:40 am

ericm2031 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:

Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

Why would they need a tower to operate?


They don’t NEED one, but G4 wants one, in some form.

Seems like a crazy requirent from allegiant of all people. All the airlines fly into non towered airports all over the country.
 
capitalflyer
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:43 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:07 pm

**B6 DCA-MVY JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

This along with adds to ACK seem to indicate B6 is getting good support for their service to MASS islands. Is this part of an ongoing battle with AA in the NE in general? They seem to be going at AA recently. In addition to these little adds, B6 upping DCA-BOS "shuttle" to 15x this summer. Also adding 1x to PBI and to FLL. As always, the question with DCA is where are the slots coming from. In June, B6 is adding 7+ frequencies from DCA to BOS, PBI, FLL, and MVY. Some of these slots might be from the cuts to CHS, JAX, etc. last summer. But will we see one or two more cuts next week? Maybe MCO, RSW, NAS, or SJU? Perhaps NAS and the Bahamas are not ready for tourism yet? If I were to guess, I would say that SJU and NAS will get axed as well as RSW (E190 route) as B6 has been consolidating service at DCA. That would be 4 slot pairs. Maybe one frequency cut from MCO as well, then upgauge one of the 2 remaining E190 flights to A320?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5690
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:13 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
**B6 DCA-MVY JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

This along with adds to ACK seem to indicate B6 is getting good support for their service to MASS islands. Is this part of an ongoing battle with AA in the NE in general? They seem to be going at AA recently. In addition to these little adds, B6 upping DCA-BOS "shuttle" to 15x this summer. Also adding 1x to PBI and to FLL. As always, the question with DCA is where are the slots coming from. In June, B6 is adding 7+ frequencies from DCA to BOS, PBI, FLL, and MVY. Some of these slots might be from the cuts to CHS, JAX, etc. last summer. But will we see one or two more cuts next week? Maybe MCO, RSW, NAS, or SJU? Perhaps NAS and the Bahamas are not ready for tourism yet? If I were to guess, I would say that SJU and NAS will get axed as well as RSW (E190 route) as B6 has been consolidating service at DCA. That would be 4 slot pairs. Maybe one frequency cut from MCO as well, then upgauge one of the 2 remaining E190 flights to A320?

This is simply reallocation of slots that were BDL/CHS/TPA/JAX.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-s ... er-cities/
MVY got a couple of weekly flights off one of the BOS flights.
SJU is not going anywhere. It's very profitable. Their highest margined route out of DCA.
 
User avatar
lesfalls
Posts: 3411
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:46 pm

So with DY cutting JFK-MAD I presume we'll be seeing the same with their LAX-MAD?
Lufthansa: Einfach ein bisschen besser.
 
tcaeyx
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:32 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:55 pm

BroadwayLimited wrote:
"KE ICN-LAX MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]"

Looks like KE is starting a third flight on this route. Not sure if this is year round, or seasonal.

Is this because of the new JV with DL,.or is it a preemptive move to make sure possibly AA does not start the route? Or both?


Runs from 01MAY20-24OCT20. KE ran this flight during S17 before the JV was approved while SQ was still on the route, so there's definitely enough demand to warrant at least a seasonal increase. Last bit of info I gathered from JonNYC is that there is no indication that AA plans to start LAX-ICN. Air Premia plans to begin LAX in 2021.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/287452/korean-air-s20-us-service-changes-as-of-08nov19/
 
alasizon
Posts: 2666
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:09 pm

fiddlerkrt wrote:
I did not know that AA was 3 daily on PHX-DCA, so this certainly helps explain why they are ending service on PHX-BWI. Even just a few years ago, AA did not have this level of frequency to DCA and were able to maintain 2 daily on BWI-PHX so I suspect this is part of the story.

I think it's worth looking at AA's level of service from BWI to its other hub airports.
(a) BWI-ORD is 4 daily and they have upgauged some of these flights to mainline now (it used to be exclusively Eagle).
(b) PHL is back up to 5 or 6 daily (was down to 3 at one point!).
(c) CLT is up to 9 mainline flights (used to be just 8 I think), some of which are the A321.
(d) DFW has not increased but now has access to secondary California markets which were only resumed recently (BUR and SBA are the ones which come to mind). Therefore, PHX has very few unique destinations that can be accessed via the other hubs.

I suspect a lot of connecting traffic now flows over CLT, ORD, DFW, and PHL hence no need to compete with WN on BWI-PHX. It's a shame to see them leave although AA is maintaining a much healthier schedule from BWI than UA.

And thanks, enilria, for these wonderful OAG threads every week.


PHX-DCA has been 3x daily for many years, since before the AA/US merger. It used to be a 9A, 1P and 3P departure from PHX. Instead AA swapped one of the PM departures in favor of a red-eye allowing them to be the only (at the time) DCA red-eye targeting business travelers who needed to be in DCA first thing in the morning.

BWI has performed well but has been repeatedly cut back due to the MAX and sometimes has only been offered as a red-eye due to the aircraft availability. Probably better options for aircraft deployment right now.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
Rbgso
Posts: 340
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:30 pm

Chuska wrote:
That's a short flight!
*UA LAX-PSP Jun 1.0>0.1 [1.0]...

It is 109 miles but UA* (and several others) have run this route since day 1. Hate to see another legend bite the dust.


As I recall, UAX used to run EMB-120s on this route multiple times a day. It was a fun short flight over the mountains.
 
N649DL
Posts: 1009
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:13 pm

jayunited wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Crazy to see UA exit MIASFO. Does that leave only AA and B6 connecting SF to South Florida nonstop?


UA has always struggled on MIA-SFO route, however UA still flies SFO-FLL. For some reason that route works while SFO-MIA struggles.

For SFO-MIA the only airline on the route will now be AA and even AA’s presence on this route is not what it once was, they’ve pulled back a bit as well.
Enilria suggests that perhaps DL will jump on this route, there is nothing stoping DL from getting in on the fun now but I don’t think UA’s departure from this route will entice DL to launch SFO-MIA. DL has plenty of money to burn but I don’t see them burning it on this route, there is so little demand on this the SFO-MIA route.


Not back in the day when UA had a focus city in MIA. SFO-MIA was typically a daily 763 until the early/mid 2000s. It's when UA closed down the MIA focus city and exited the route completely that AA upped their game a lot. UA only re-entered SFO-MIA within the last few years and they lost too much ground.

I'm surprised AA is dropping BWI-PHX. That's a long standing former America West route which started in the late 1980s/early 1990s.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:43 pm

jplatts wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
**AA BWI-PHX APR 2>0.4[2] MAY 2>0[1.7] JUN 2>0[0.8] JUL 2>0[1.0] AUG 2>0[0.9]


Looking at schedules around Monday, 11/18, one doesn't see a lot of competition on WAS-PHX:

1x UA IAD-PHX
3x WN BWI-PHX

I'm a little surprised WN could push AA off a route of this length where seat assignments and BOB have some value.


I can understand AA dropping BWI-PHX nonstop service since:
(a) AA has a hub at DCA in the DC/Baltimore market,
(b) AA will still be able to get passengers to DC nonstop from PHX (and vice versa) through its remaining DCA-PHX nonstops (which are operated using beyond-perimeter slot exemptions),
(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA. WN is also connecting some passengers from PHX to destinations in the Northeast (and vice versa) through BWI. BWI is also currently the only airport in the DC/Baltimore region that WN serves nonstop from PHX, whereas AA will still serve its DCA hub nonstop from PHX once it discontinues PHX-BWI nonstop service.


Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3932
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:54 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.


While WN is reducing BUF-PHX nonstop service to seasonal from year-round, WN currently has BUF-PHX scheduled to resume starting on March 7, 2020.
 
DeltaConnection
Posts: 70
Joined: Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:24 pm

Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5690
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:45 pm

DeltaConnection wrote:
Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.

What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?
 
DeltaConnection
Posts: 70
Joined: Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
DeltaConnection wrote:
Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.

What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?


Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5690
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:26 pm

DeltaConnection wrote:
tphuang wrote:
DeltaConnection wrote:
Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.

What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?


Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.
 
maximairways
Posts: 144
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:24 am

jplatts wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.


While WN is reducing BUF-PHX nonstop service to seasonal from year-round, WN currently has BUF-PHX scheduled to resume starting on March 7, 2020.


And the fact that it's only for less than 2 months makes me think its MAX related.(Returning around the time MAXs are back in the schedule).
 
User avatar
usdcaguy
Posts: 1559
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:41 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:18 am

jayunited wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Crazy to see UA exit MIASFO. Does that leave only AA and B6 connecting SF to South Florida nonstop?


UA has always struggled on MIA-SFO route, however UA still flies SFO-FLL. For some reason that route works while SFO-MIA struggles.

For SFO-MIA the only airline on the route will now be AA and even AA’s presence on this route is not what it once was, they’ve pulled back a bit as well.
Enilria suggests that perhaps DL will jump on this route, there is nothing stoping DL from getting in on the fun now but I don’t think UA’s departure from this route will entice DL to launch SFO-MIA. DL has plenty of money to burn but I don’t see them burning it on this route, there is so little demand on this the SFO-MIA route.


While I don’t see DL launching the route immediately, I see them offering the route to connect to LATAM flights out of MIA one day. It would really only happen once a JV were in place. There is still very limited connectivity from the west coast to Latin America besides Mexico, and DL could definitely use LATAM’s lift out of Miami to compete against the connections AA offers.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3347
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:24 am

enilria wrote:
Good point, but I think they can't afford to shaft LATAM by cutting off their feed and forcing their former pax over ATL.


Once a JV is in place, why wouldn't they want to flow South America to SFO traffic over ATL? ATL is connected to the largest and wealthiest South American markets: GRU, EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, etc. The LATAM flights to MIA would add some connectivity between SFO and secondary Brazilian destinations like FOR and REC, but what's the PDEW of those places to SFO? I'd bet pretty small. It seems way more important for DL to reconnect LAX with MIA given the larger South American populations in L.A.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10373
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:54 pm

FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Good point, but I think they can't afford to shaft LATAM by cutting off their feed and forcing their former pax over ATL.


Once a JV is in place, why wouldn't they want to flow South America to SFO traffic over ATL? ATL is connected to the largest and wealthiest South American markets: GRU, EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, etc. The LATAM flights to MIA would add some connectivity between SFO and secondary Brazilian destinations like FOR and REC, but what's the PDEW of those places to SFO? I'd bet pretty small. It seems way more important for DL to reconnect LAX with MIA given the larger South American populations in L.A.

Because MIA is important to them. They did this deal to give them a foothold in MIA, not to liquidate it for more ATL connects. MIA was always the 4th in the DL "4 Corners Strategy". SEA/LAX/BOS/MIA. This whole deal was to weaken AA's MIA hub and allow DL to make inroads. Not unlike using the code share with AS in SEA to build a hub inside their own.
 
cofannyc
Posts: 277
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:22 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
DeltaConnection wrote:
tphuang wrote:
What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?


Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.


I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2666
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:29 pm

cofannyc wrote:
tphuang wrote:
DeltaConnection wrote:

Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.


I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.


Not discounting your work but SFO-LAX is a very bad comparison as it is a high frequency route between two large cities.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
DeltaConnection
Posts: 70
Joined: Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:20 pm

cofannyc wrote:
tphuang wrote:
DeltaConnection wrote:

Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.


I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.


Very poor argument, and please use a better example than SFO-LAX.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5690
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:09 pm

DeltaConnection wrote:
cofannyc wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.


I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.


Very poor argument, and please use a better example than SFO-LAX.


2019Q2 Non-stop fares for B6
JFK-ACK 185.6
JFK-MVY 198.57
LGA-ACK 166.82
DCA-ACK 201.28
BOS-ACK 169.19
BOS-MVY 127.0
DCA-ACK prints money for B6. Plenty of reason for them to try DCA-MVY. Let's stop this silliness
 
evank516
Posts: 2190
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:07 am

Chuska wrote:
That's a short flight!
*UA LAX-PSP Jun 1.0>0.1 [1.0]...

It is 109 miles but UA* (and several others) have run this route since day 1. Hate to see another legend bite the dust.


And then there's SFO-STS which makes LAX-PSP look like a transcon :rotfl:
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4366
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/10/2019: AA Exits BWI-PHX;B6 Adds DCA-MVY;DY Drops JFK-MAD;G4 Exits FNL?;SY

Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:48 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.


If it were really so profitable do you think they would cut it?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos