AirFiero wrote:

Enilria wrote:

AS shifts OAK capacity to PDX

WN must be eating AS’s lunch at OAK to Hawaii

aaway wrote:

MO11 wrote:

RJNUT wrote:

Could it be just a summer cancellation as it appears to start back up in August

Does this flight move an airplane in/out of maintenance at PSP?

Can't say definitively (someone else may chime in), but most likely the case since Skywest performs maintenance at PSP.

WA707atMSP wrote:

It's a shame SkyWest hasn't been able to make this route work since the Brasilias were retired.

ericm2031 wrote:

enilria wrote:

That was fast. They are gone already?
**G4 AZA-FNL DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
**G4 FNL-LAS DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0] APR 0.6>0[0] MAY 0.6>0.4[0]

Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

SANFan wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

Enilria wrote:

AS shifts OAK capacity to PDX

WN must be eating AS’s lunch at OAK to Hawaii

Hey AirFi', I posted about this on another thread a while ago.

Since OAK is a fairly minor out-station for AS and a huge hub for WN, I can certainly understand AS backing off and redistributing those assets to other w/c gateways -- in this round, entirely PDX & SEA.

I hope, and expect AS will continue to grow their Island offerings from both CA focus cities which I'm sure they're more interested in fighting for. And there are certainly more connecting opportunities for AS at both SJC and SAN than at OAK!

When AS recently announced daily-double SAN-OGG service for next summer, I was certainly encouraged that they do plan on protecting their SoCal focus city routes from any competition, especially WN (which hadn't yet announced their April start-up of 2 SAN-HI routes.)

I'm wondering if AS may even go double-daily with SAN-HNL as well, seeing as WN will enter the market and HA is down-sizing their a/c on the route to a 321?

bb

ericm2031 wrote:

enilria wrote:

That was fast. They are gone already?
**G4 AZA-FNL DEC 0.3>0[0] JAN 0.3>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
**G4 FNL-LAS DEC 0.6>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.6>0[0] APR 0.6>0[0] MAY 0.6>0.4[0]

Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

MAH4546 wrote:

It would be a logical ad, but I doubt a priority, and UA isn’t exiting MIASFO, which is a route it doesn’t operate year-round.

AirFiero wrote:

AS shifts OAK capacity to PDX

WN must be eating AS’s lunch at OAK to Hawaii

Cubsrule wrote:

enilria wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

DL hasn't even been able to make LAX-MIA/FLL work. I don't see hope from SFO.

But LATAM changes things and on the DL quarterly call the CEO said to one of his VPs "we haven't announced the new MIA flying yet have we?"

What’s the total demand from SFO to cities that LA serves from MIA but DL does not serve on its own metal? It’s got to be pretty small. 20 PDEW?

tphuang wrote:

A couple of things.
UA's yield number out of MIA-SFO is actually better than FLL-SFO. I'm not sure why they reduce MIA ahead of FLL. And that 3rd B6 flight on FLL-SFO will just pressure that yield even more. I don't see DL adding MIA-SFO before MIA-LAX. MIA-LAX would seem like an obvious add if they want to build up MIA. Either way, AA and B6 have these 2 routes dominated.

MIflyer12 wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AA BWI-PHX APR 2>0.4[2] MAY 2>0[1.7] JUN 2>0[0.8] JUL 2>0[1.0] AUG 2>0[0.9]

Looking at schedules around Monday, 11/18, one doesn't see a lot of competition on WAS-PHX:

1x UA IAD-PHX
3x WN BWI-PHX

I'm a little surprised WN could push AA off a route of this length where seat assignments and BOB have some value.

KFTG wrote:

The problem FNL has is terminal space...
They really can only support one airline.

jplatts wrote:

(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA.

MIflyer12 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA.

Again, I acknowledge I missed DCA-PHX on AA.

BWI isn't some podunk airport. It's #24 in domestic O&D - right behind DCA, ahead of PDX for 12 months ending 3/19. If WAS travelers are all perfectly agnostic between DCA/IAD/BWI, great for AA. I don't believe it.

bluefltspecial wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

DY is cutting back more at JFK. The MAD route getting axed isn't surprising. There is plenty of capacity with IB, AA, and DL. All of the DY Scandinavian routes out of JFK I think have gone seasonal (summer only) for 2020. With CDG cut from EWR early this year and with the Stewart route cuts, I guess DY can't claim it carries more people out of NY for much longer.

I think you're a bit lost in your statement. Norwegian did not operate CDG-EWR, they operated ORY-EWR.

Their claim was not "carrying more people out of NY" I believe it was something along the line of 'the largest international airline at JFK" a title which I doubted at first and researched and came to find out it was in terms of actual passengers carried. They had taken the title from BA, which operates mostly High J config 747s, and those aircraft are not always at capacity, where Norwegian seems to run around 85%+ load factor from JFK.

I'm guessing Norwegian will be going back and forth with BA for the title this summer.

Today for an example has the following departures
AMS x1 @ 344 pax
LGW x 3 @ 338 pax = 1014
FCO x 1 @344
CDG x1 @ 344
OSL x 1 @ 291
MAD x 1 @ 344
BCN x 1 @ 344

Total current Winter possible pax = 3025 seats on a full schedule day
* not every day operates full schedule

announced Summer will add
x5 week ATH (1720 seats)
additional x4(11 weekly/2 partial daily?) CDG (1376 seats)*
additional x5 (25 weekly/4 partial daily?) LGW (1720 seats)*
Thats an additional 4000+ seats a week or rough avg 575 seats a day extra
*not sure of the exact schedules, and don't have time to research on my phone

In comparison,
BA has 12 flights a day on High J 747s
12 flights @ 275 seats each =3300
Add in the Gatwick flight and you're around 3600

Moving on.

Norwegian seemingly has finally started to focus not just on load factor but apparently yield. The Madrid flights in summer I know were always full, but we know the full aircraft does not mean profit. I'm guessing they will try to push MAD through connections of OSL or others.

While the summer schedules are not finalized, there is seems to be no listing of CPH or ARN as of now in the GDS non-stop from JFK.
We'll see if the aircraft schedule allows for it, and of course, if they can get the slots.

ericm2031 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

Has to do with the "virtual" tower not being ready yet

Why would they need a tower to operate?

They don’t NEED one, but G4 wants one, in some form.

capitalflyer wrote:

**B6 DCA-MVY JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

This along with adds to ACK seem to indicate B6 is getting good support for their service to MASS islands. Is this part of an ongoing battle with AA in the NE in general? They seem to be going at AA recently. In addition to these little adds, B6 upping DCA-BOS "shuttle" to 15x this summer. Also adding 1x to PBI and to FLL. As always, the question with DCA is where are the slots coming from. In June, B6 is adding 7+ frequencies from DCA to BOS, PBI, FLL, and MVY. Some of these slots might be from the cuts to CHS, JAX, etc. last summer. But will we see one or two more cuts next week? Maybe MCO, RSW, NAS, or SJU? Perhaps NAS and the Bahamas are not ready for tourism yet? If I were to guess, I would say that SJU and NAS will get axed as well as RSW (E190 route) as B6 has been consolidating service at DCA. That would be 4 slot pairs. Maybe one frequency cut from MCO as well, then upgauge one of the 2 remaining E190 flights to A320?

BroadwayLimited wrote:

"KE ICN-LAX MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]"

Looks like KE is starting a third flight on this route. Not sure if this is year round, or seasonal.

Is this because of the new JV with DL,.or is it a preemptive move to make sure possibly AA does not start the route? Or both?

fiddlerkrt wrote:

I did not know that AA was 3 daily on PHX-DCA, so this certainly helps explain why they are ending service on PHX-BWI. Even just a few years ago, AA did not have this level of frequency to DCA and were able to maintain 2 daily on BWI-PHX so I suspect this is part of the story.

I think it's worth looking at AA's level of service from BWI to its other hub airports.
(a) BWI-ORD is 4 daily and they have upgauged some of these flights to mainline now (it used to be exclusively Eagle).
(b) PHL is back up to 5 or 6 daily (was down to 3 at one point!).
(c) CLT is up to 9 mainline flights (used to be just 8 I think), some of which are the A321.
(d) DFW has not increased but now has access to secondary California markets which were only resumed recently (BUR and SBA are the ones which come to mind). Therefore, PHX has very few unique destinations that can be accessed via the other hubs.

I suspect a lot of connecting traffic now flows over CLT, ORD, DFW, and PHL hence no need to compete with WN on BWI-PHX. It's a shame to see them leave although AA is maintaining a much healthier schedule from BWI than UA.

And thanks, enilria, for these wonderful OAG threads every week.

Chuska wrote:

That's a short flight!
*UA LAX-PSP Jun 1.0>0.1 [1.0]...

It is 109 miles but UA* (and several others) have run this route since day 1. Hate to see another legend bite the dust.

jayunited wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Crazy to see UA exit MIASFO. Does that leave only AA and B6 connecting SF to South Florida nonstop?

UA has always struggled on MIA-SFO route, however UA still flies SFO-FLL. For some reason that route works while SFO-MIA struggles.

For SFO-MIA the only airline on the route will now be AA and even AA’s presence on this route is not what it once was, they’ve pulled back a bit as well.
Enilria suggests that perhaps DL will jump on this route, there is nothing stoping DL from getting in on the fun now but I don’t think UA’s departure from this route will entice DL to launch SFO-MIA. DL has plenty of money to burn but I don’t see them burning it on this route, there is so little demand on this the SFO-MIA route.

jplatts wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AA BWI-PHX APR 2>0.4[2] MAY 2>0[1.7] JUN 2>0[0.8] JUL 2>0[1.0] AUG 2>0[0.9]

Looking at schedules around Monday, 11/18, one doesn't see a lot of competition on WAS-PHX:

1x UA IAD-PHX
3x WN BWI-PHX

I'm a little surprised WN could push AA off a route of this length where seat assignments and BOB have some value.

I can understand AA dropping BWI-PHX nonstop service since:
(a) AA has a hub at DCA in the DC/Baltimore market,
(b) AA will still be able to get passengers to DC nonstop from PHX (and vice versa) through its remaining DCA-PHX nonstops (which are operated using beyond-perimeter slot exemptions),
(c) AA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to BWI from PHX through its ORD, DFW, and CLT hubs once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
(d) AA will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to its other Arizona destinations from BWI through its DFW hub once it discontinues BWI-PHX nonstop service,
and (e) AA has more connecting feed on DCA-PHX than it does on DCA-BWI due to DCA-PHX being a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA, the DCA perimeter rule, and passengers connecting to PHX from other East Coast destinations through DCA.

WN also has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA. WN is also connecting some passengers from PHX to destinations in the Northeast (and vice versa) through BWI. BWI is also currently the only airport in the DC/Baltimore region that WN serves nonstop from PHX, whereas AA will still serve its DCA hub nonstop from PHX once it discontinues PHX-BWI nonstop service.

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.

DeltaConnection wrote:

Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.

tphuang wrote:

DeltaConnection wrote:

Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.

What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?

DeltaConnection wrote:

tphuang wrote:

DeltaConnection wrote:

Wait a minute, B6 called it quits on DCA-BDL/TPA yet they think DCA-MVY will work? What a joke B6 corporate is.

What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?

Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

jplatts wrote:

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.

While WN is reducing BUF-PHX nonstop service to seasonal from year-round, WN currently has BUF-PHX scheduled to resume starting on March 7, 2020.

jayunited wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Crazy to see UA exit MIASFO. Does that leave only AA and B6 connecting SF to South Florida nonstop?

UA has always struggled on MIA-SFO route, however UA still flies SFO-FLL. For some reason that route works while SFO-MIA struggles.

For SFO-MIA the only airline on the route will now be AA and even AA’s presence on this route is not what it once was, they’ve pulled back a bit as well.
Enilria suggests that perhaps DL will jump on this route, there is nothing stoping DL from getting in on the fun now but I don’t think UA’s departure from this route will entice DL to launch SFO-MIA. DL has plenty of money to burn but I don’t see them burning it on this route, there is so little demand on this the SFO-MIA route.

enilria wrote:

Good point, but I think they can't afford to shaft LATAM by cutting off their feed and forcing their former pax over ATL.

FSDan wrote:

enilria wrote:

Good point, but I think they can't afford to shaft LATAM by cutting off their feed and forcing their former pax over ATL.

Once a JV is in place, why wouldn't they want to flow South America to SFO traffic over ATL? ATL is connected to the largest and wealthiest South American markets: GRU, EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, etc. The LATAM flights to MIA would add some connectivity between SFO and secondary Brazilian destinations like FOR and REC, but what's the PDEW of those places to SFO? I'd bet pretty small. It seems way more important for DL to reconnect LAX with MIA given the larger South American populations in L.A.

tphuang wrote:

DeltaConnection wrote:

tphuang wrote:

What kind of logic is that? Ack and mvy are goldmine in the summer time. Have you ever looked at their margins to these places?

Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.

cofannyc wrote:

tphuang wrote:

DeltaConnection wrote:

Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.

I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.

cofannyc wrote:

tphuang wrote:

DeltaConnection wrote:

Yup, from places most people would usually drive to there such as New York state or Massachusetts.

Plus AVY already has seasonal American Eagle service from DCA, not sure why they feel they can fill an E190 in both directions. This is a season route that will probably go away entirely after one season.

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.

I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.

DeltaConnection wrote:

cofannyc wrote:

tphuang wrote:

So you basically have not ever seen their performance on dca ack.

I also hate to ruin a good, baseless rant with data but...

In 2018:
AA DCA-MVY - flew a 83.3% LF in July and 89.2% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $233)
B6 DCA-ACK - flew a 73.4% LF in July and 77.5% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $142)
B6 BOS/JFK-MVY - flew 78.% LF in July and 84.4% LF in Aug (with a Q3 avg fare of $180 from JFK and $108 from BOS)

For a comparison, SFO-LAX is a 337 mile flight (compared to DCA-ACK/MVY at roughly 400 miles) had a Q3 2018 average fare across all carriers of $85. Why the comparison? Because it shows that a $142 avg fare on DCA-ACK is a very high yielding route and it would be stupid of B6 to not expand to DCA-MVY given the performance on AA.

Very poor argument, and please use a better example than SFO-LAX.

Chuska wrote:

That's a short flight!
*UA LAX-PSP Jun 1.0>0.1 [1.0]...

It is 109 miles but UA* (and several others) have run this route since day 1. Hate to see another legend bite the dust.

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Wn stopping service from BUF to PHX is head scratching ..... that route is a goldmine.