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Revelation
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:48 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Airbus current new build freighter the A330-200F turned out not successful, with only 42 orders and 38 deliveries.
The A330MMRT also only got 60 orders with 39 delivered.

Both of those are successful projects that largely leveraged existing product development to enter new markets.
I'm sure their customers are telling them a lot of things that will make their next efforts even more successful.
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CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Airbus current new build freighter the A330-200F turned out not successful, with only 42 orders and 38 deliveries.
The A330MMRT also only got 60 orders with 39 delivered.

Both of those are successful projects that largely leveraged existing product development to enter new markets.
I'm sure their customers are telling them a lot of things that will make their next efforts even more successful.

Might I find this a odd comment?!.
I agree that the A330MRTT can be seen as a succes, there are 13 A330-200 still in the production pipeline that will enter the MRTT conversion. The other 8 orders are for Iran Air those can't be delivered. (besides there are 20 A330-300 in the backlog with 2 UFO's)

I disagree with the A330-200F being a succes. It required some considerable development work. The cost of that development most likely couldn't be covered by the 38 A330-200F delivered. And I think it's doubtfull the remaining 4 A330F on order will be delivered.
How is: the A318 with 80 orders and deliveries a failure, the A340-500/-600 with 131 orders and deliveries a failure, the A380 with 251 orders and 239 deliveries a failure. And the A330F with 42 orders and 38 deliveries a succes. ?!
I don't get it.
 
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:01 pm

[double post]
 
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:28 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Might I find this a odd comment?!.
I agree that the A330MRTT can be seen as a succes, there are 13 A330-200 still in the production pipeline that will enter the MRTT conversion. The other 8 orders are for Iran Air those can't be delivered. (besides there are 20 A330-300 in the backlog with 2 UFO's)

I disagree with the A330-200F being a succes. It required some considerable development work. The cost of that development most likely couldn't be covered by the 38 A330-200F delivered. And I think it's doubtfull the remaining 4 A330F on order will be delivered.
How is: the A318 with 80 orders and deliveries a failure, the A340-500/-600 with 131 orders and deliveries a failure, the A380 with 251 orders and 239 deliveries a failure. And the A330F with 42 orders and 38 deliveries a succes. ?!
I don't get it.

Pretty much every business I've been associated with values new business opportunities pretty highly.

I view A332F as a relatively cheap opening into the wide body long range freighter business in a way the A300F/A310F never was, and will have a cheap/easy next generation A338F when the market is ready for it. MRTT falls in to the same category with an even clearer future.

I'm not sure I'd call A318 a failure, it enabled capture and retention of a few customers at a pretty minimal cost, and many went on to substantial buys of bigger models.

I view A345/6 as a failure because of the large expenditure and customer dissatisfaction with the resulting economics especially for A345 and "heavy wing" A346, but I can imagine Airbus can justify the move in that ETOPS was not a widely proven thing at the time and loyal customers such as LH were very interested in it. The 77W/L kicked its butt but we're saying that with the benefit of hindsight.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:39 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Revelation wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Airbus current new build freighter the A330-200F turned out not successful, with only 42 orders and 38 deliveries.
The A330MMRT also only got 60 orders with 39 delivered.

Both of those are successful projects that largely leveraged existing product development to enter new markets.
I'm sure their customers are telling them a lot of things that will make their next efforts even more successful.

Might I find this a odd comment?!.
I agree that the A330MRTT can be seen as a succes, there are 13 A330-200 still in the production pipeline that will enter the MRTT conversion. The other 8 orders are for Iran Air those can't be delivered. (besides there are 20 A330-300 in the backlog with 2 UFO's)

I disagree with the A330-200F being a succes. It required some considerable development work. The cost of that development most likely couldn't be covered by the 38 A330-200F delivered. And I think it's doubtfull the remaining 4 A330F on order will be delivered.
How is: the A318 with 80 orders and deliveries a failure, the A340-500/-600 with 131 orders and deliveries a failure, the A380 with 251 orders and 239 deliveries a failure. And the A330F with 42 orders and 38 deliveries a succes. ?!
I don't get it.


The A330F is a A330-200, with a main deck cargo door, a main deck cargo floor, without windows and a repositioned FLG. It is just the cargo version of a preexisting frame. Hardly an expensive development program comparable to a new model like the A318 or A340-500/600 and absolutely not comparable to a clean sheet design like the A380.
I would say 38 frames delivered should easily cover the cost for the development of the A330F and include a profit.

The A330MRTT is a special development for military purposes and their again I believe the current sales cover development and provide a profit. There again we find a largely unchanged A330, with the design of the plumbing for refueling pods taken from the A340 wings, no extra tankage needed.
If a main cargo door and cargo floor is needed the design is there from the A330F.
The boom is largely a repeat of the A310MRTT.

To compare, the conversion of 4 A310 to MRTT for the German Luftwaffe, paid for the design of that bird. The two conversions for the Canadian airforce was a bonus.
The A310MRTT actually needed bigger changes to the frame, than the A330MRTT.

The design of the boom was around 90 million Euro.

If now Airbus offers for example an A330-300F, it will not be expensive to design. There is already the A330-300 p2f done at a subsidiary of Airbus the EFW.

We actually look at examples how you use existing frames, with limited changes for new applications, to make a profit on small series of them.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:49 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
The A330P2F conversion isn't very successful as well.


It has barely started. Way too early to say that. A330 feedstock is still attractive as passenger planes, while useable 767 feedstock is still available for a short while.

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
1) why was the A300-600F successful and the A330-200F not?
Is the forward pitching nose of the A330, because of the same forward landing gear, but longer main landing gear to accommodate larger diameter engine, compared to the A300, the main problem. The A330-200F has been made vertical on the ground, but this caused the nose landing gear bulb, which is less aerodynamic.


I will say there are various factors at play here. Most importantly, there are only 2 primary customers for new-build freighters in this world - UPS and FedEx. At the time, A300s and A310s were cheap and plentiful for conversions, and Airbus could still build them (and likely offer them at a discount). When time came to replace those and/or other types, FedEx and UPS pretty much just 2 options, 767s and A330s. UPS already had a sizeable fleet of 767s so that just leaves FedEx which could be swayed, and who knows why they selected the 767 over the A330. In other words, with only 2 major customers, the picture can swing completely in one direction or the other every decade.

And then you have the secondhand freight conversions. A bit of a similar story, A300s and A310s got pushed out of the passenger market by the 767, and were attractive as freighters back in the time. They eventually got older and the 767s got pushed out by the A330s, making 767s ideal for conversions. Next up, A330s will get pushed out by the 787s, and eventually some day the 787s will get pushed out by something else. It's a cyclus.


Spacepope wrote:
No, the considerations for those mods though. They didn't make a freighter with passenger seats just because. But they also didn't make the same floor mistake as the 777 passenger variants either.


How do you know for certain that they didn't do the same with the 787? Stronger floors mean more weight, which is completely at odds with the concept of the 787.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:23 pm

A 767-4F freighter is a very likely possibility, if the likes of Amazon is willing to foot much of the development costs. Given that Amazon Prime Air is scrounging up as many 767-300F's as possible, getting a 767-4F would be a natural.
 
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:30 pm

RayChuang wrote:
A 767-4F freighter is a very likely possibility, if the likes of Amazon is willing to foot much of the development costs. Given that Amazon Prime Air is scrounging up as many 767-300F's as possible, getting a 767-4F would be a natural.

Not at all sure Amazon would fund a new airplane project when it seems happy to buy time on refurbished 767s that other people own.

I also think obtaining 763ER feed stock is not as problematic as some think, compared to the cost of buying new 763F never mind developing 764F.
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:37 pm

VSMUT wrote:
How do you know for certain that they didn't do the same with the 787? Stronger floors mean more weight, which is completely at odds with the concept of the 787.


I never said anything about stronger floors. The 777 P2F issue was the composite floors were bonded to the structure of the aircraft, so removal of the pax floors was near impossible/super spendy. Just altering the installation method from the old 777 way is enough, no need for full freighter floors from the get go.
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:37 pm

I checked the airbus O&D Okt.2019 and checked if airlines are cargo of freighter purposed.
UPS has 52x A300-600's and is updating their avionics so they are useful until the 2030's.
FedEx has 71x A300's and 12x A310's, they are replacing the older once with 767-300ERF.
DHL has several airlines operating A300F, A310F and A330F for them.:
European Air Transport Leipzig is the largest with: 21x A300-600RF, 4x A330-200F and 2x A330-300P2F (and 8 P2F on order).
Air Hong Kong, operates 5 A300's for DHL and has a further 5 and two A330-300P2F.
ASL Airlines Ireland operates 4 A300's for DHL and also has two A330-300 P2F.
The A300-600F's have a ~48mT payload capability, the A310F ~40mT, the A330-200F 65-70mT and the A330P2F ~60mT.
The A330P2F is a very extensive modification with large modification of the passenger floor into a cargo floor, thus the conversion is expansive. But the A330 feed-stock is apparently cheap at the moment. Indicated by the number of A330's being parted out at the moment.
Afaik, the A330P2F program has converted 8 aircraft with a further 8 on order. This while the program started in 2017, not that bad.
New build A330NEO freighters will compete with the A330P2F program. Both are >60mT freighters.
That's why I'm asking where the demand is, at 40-50mT or at 60-80mT. The later is the A330-200F, A330P2F or an A330NEO freighter, for the earlier Airbus stopped production of a suitable product in 2007.
 
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:38 pm

Spacepope wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
How do you know for certain that they didn't do the same with the 787? Stronger floors mean more weight, which is completely at odds with the concept of the 787.


I never said anything about stronger floors. The 777 P2F issue was the composite floors were bonded to the structure of the aircraft, so removal of the pax floors was near impossible/super spendy. Just altering the installation method from the old 777 way is enough, no need for full freighter floors from the get go.


Are you sure that is what was done with the 787? - an allowance to easily change the floor beams?

I had heard (never confirmed) that the existing 787 floor beams were designed to have reinforcement added later so that they would be strong enough for freight loads without replacing them - just bolt on (or otherwise attache) the pre-designed reinforcement structures to each floor beam.

I do know that Boeing did plan for an economical 787 Freighter version and was very cognizant of the 777 history and lessons learned. I'm just not sure of what the exact plans of how to do it were.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:04 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
The A330P2F is a very extensive modification with large modification of the passenger floor into a cargo floor, thus the conversion is expansive. But the A330 feed-stock is apparently cheap at the moment. Indicated by the number of A330's being parted out at the moment.

Agree on both points.
Someone posted a pic of an unpainted A330P2F.
It was very interesting to see how much external doubling they had to apply.
Yet now that the design work is done and feed stock is plentiful it should be cheaper over time.
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CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:36 pm

I think; currently the transition from A330 CEO to NEO is working against the P2F program, because older frames are parted out for spare parts. When there is a stock of spare parts, parting out get's less interesting and residual frame value will go down even more.
This will make the conversion cheaper.
What about a A340P2F, there are still 137 -200& -300 operational and 110 -500 or -600. ?
Agreed that the A330P2F is more interesting for cargo airlines.
There is also a concept floating around for a very basic cargo conversion, with internal cargo lifts. A340 LCF conversion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzCp2Sk ... =emb_title
How suitable is a LCF conversion for a MD-11 replacement?
And if I go off topic, what about a LCF A380 combo conversion?
 
HPRamper
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Sorry but I can't quite follow the discussion, how many different categories of containers are needed for optimal main deck usage in the FX fleet considering potential A330 addition?

My guess from the above:

FX web site seems to have been reorganized with Google now pointing at many dead links.

767: AAD
757: SAA


Thanks!

So we have:

* MD11/777: AMJ
* A300/A330: AAD
* 767: AAD
* 757: SAA

As you say, MD11 retirement removes a large user of the widest containers, but I presume 77F mainly gets used on the longest intercontinental hub to hub routes so it's largely in its own category with a limited number of stations visited. Then remaining A300, new 767 and potential A330 would be regional wide bodies and 757 regional narrow bodies so we probably end up with three classes of containers with or without A330.

I guess one thing we could say is adding A330 would add additional volume that probably would not be utilized since the same containers would need to be interchangeable with 767? If so, could we also say that current A300 use is sub-optimal?

There are currently enough AADs that the A300 is used optimally, it can accomodate AMJ/AYY but that is indeed suboptimal. Adding an influx of A330 into the current fleet would certainly imbalance things.
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Revelation wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
767: AAD
757: SAA


Thanks!

So we have:

* MD11/777: AMJ
* A300/A330: AAD
* 767: AAD
* 757: SAA

As you say, MD11 retirement removes a large user of the widest containers, but I presume 77F mainly gets used on the longest intercontinental hub to hub routes so it's largely in its own category with a limited number of stations visited. Then remaining A300, new 767 and potential A330 would be regional wide bodies and 757 regional narrow bodies so we probably end up with three classes of containers with or without A330.

I guess one thing we could say is adding A330 would add additional volume that probably would not be utilized since the same containers would need to be interchangeable with 767? If so, could we also say that current A300 use is sub-optimal?

This is main deck containers right?
Lower deck (cargo hold on passenger planes) are:
777/DC-10/A3xx: LD3 (AKE), LD6 (ALF)
767: LD2 (APE), LD8 (AQF)
747: LD1 (AKC)

For FX:
MD11/777/A300: LD3(AKE) or pallets. No LD6
767: LD2 (APE) or LD8 (AQF) or pallets. LD2s are being retired. Can also accomodate LD3 but only in single row.
757: No belly containers, bulk only
 
HPRamper
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:53 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I checked the airbus O&D Okt.2019 and checked if airlines are cargo of freighter purposed.
UPS has 52x A300-600's and is updating their avionics so they are useful until the 2030's.
FedEx has 71x A300's and 12x A310's, they are replacing the older once with 767-300ERF.
DHL has several airlines operating A300F, A310F and A330F for them.:
European Air Transport Leipzig is the largest with: 21x A300-600RF, 4x A330-200F and 2x A330-300P2F (and 8 P2F on order).
Air Hong Kong, operates 5 A300's for DHL and has a further 5 and two A330-300P2F.
ASL Airlines Ireland operates 4 A300's for DHL and also has two A330-300 P2F.
The A300-600F's have a ~48mT payload capability, the A310F ~40mT, the A330-200F 65-70mT and the A330P2F ~60mT.
The A330P2F is a very extensive modification with large modification of the passenger floor into a cargo floor, thus the conversion is expansive. But the A330 feed-stock is apparently cheap at the moment. Indicated by the number of A330's being parted out at the moment.
Afaik, the A330P2F program has converted 8 aircraft with a further 8 on order. This while the program started in 2017, not that bad.
New build A330NEO freighters will compete with the A330P2F program. Both are >60mT freighters.
That's why I'm asking where the demand is, at 40-50mT or at 60-80mT. The later is the A330-200F, A330P2F or an A330NEO freighter, for the earlier Airbus stopped production of a suitable product in 2007.

That information is outdated. FedEx only has 67x A300 and 3x A310.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:04 am

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
What about a A340P2F, there are still 137 -200& -300 operational and 110 -500 or -600. ?

The Trent 500 on the -500 & -600 has become quite expensive to maintain due to the low number in service. The long term support of the engine and airframe is poor. Not something a freight carrier would usually be interested in.
The A343 could have worked, but the number in service is still too small to pay for the conversion certification. Also, many A343 are being flown to the end of their structural life (or parted out to support those that remain). The A342 is almost retired.
 
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Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:33 am

"Airbus is predicting demand for just over 850 new-build freighters over the next two decades in the airframer’s latest global forecast.

The figure is slightly higher than the 826 listed in its previous 20-year forecast."

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/f ... cally-low/

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