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mercure1
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COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:09 am

Copa going back to its roots when it was an all 737 operator.

Good vote of confidence in Boeing and the MAX.


Copa Airlines will be phasing out its Embraer 190 aircraft and moving to a Boeing 737 only fleet faster than originally expected, while eagerly awaiting the Max’s return to service, the Panama-based carrier tells analysts during the airline’s quarterly earnings call.

“As part of its plan to increase efficiencies, the company has decided to accelerate the exit of its E190 fleet and is planning to sell the remaining 14 aircraft over the next 18 months, three years earlier than previously planned,” Copa says in a statement on 14 November.

Copa chief executive Pedro Heilbron says E190s have fulfilled their mission and the company looks forward to significant financial and operational benefits from flying a 737-only fleet. Routes covered by the 100-seater Embraer regional jet will in the future be operated by larger-capacity 737NGs or replaced by the Max, once it returns to service.


Copa expedites E190 retirements
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ts-462235/
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TWA772LR
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:38 am

I had actually forgot that CM had the 190. I dont remember hearing much complaining from them about the planes reliability issues, perhaps they had the operation down?

Nonetheless, returning to a single type will allow their numbers to be even better.
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:41 am

Probably the E190s are no longer economically viable to many major airlines. AA would phase out the E190s by 2020, probably replacing them with A321NEO and 737s. JetBlue is doing so with the A220-300 as a replacement aircraft for the E190 (effectively becoming an all-Airbus fleet). Air Canada too with the A220-300 replacing the E190.
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LAXintl
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:43 am

Something to be said for commonality.

They obviously have done some financial modeling and feel even if a larger 737NG is a mismatch on some routes, the overall benefit is greater going single fleet than keeping a 100-seater around.
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:46 am

LAXintl wrote:
Something to be said for commonality.

They obviously have done some financial modeling and feel even if a larger 737NG is a mismatch on some routes, the overall benefit is greater going single fleet than keeping a 100-seater around.


Commonality is one thing. Another thing is that the E190s wouldn't generate as much revenue nor profit as the 737.
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:21 am

Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.. They could also use the capacity on certain routes too..
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:48 am

precure787 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Something to be said for commonality.

They obviously have done some financial modeling and feel even if a larger 737NG is a mismatch on some routes, the overall benefit is greater going single fleet than keeping a 100-seater around.


Commonality is one thing. Another thing is that the E190s wouldn't generate as much revenue nor profit as the 737.

While having an almost exact operating costs as a 737 won't help E190's business model.

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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:50 am

maybe Copa will like Airbus 220. Who knows?

Q
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:49 pm

Q wrote:
maybe Copa will like Airbus 220. Who knows?

Q


That would improve efficiency vs. the E90s but sacrifice commonality. Relative to Southwest or Ryanair (or even Easyjet), COPA does not have a big fleet. They're making the statement that they find more value in operating fewer types than in having 'the right plane,' by seat count or whatever measures you want to apply.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:59 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Copa going back to its roots when it was an all 737 operator.

Good vote of confidence in Boeing and the MAX.


Copa Airlines will be phasing out its Embraer 190 aircraft and moving to a Boeing 737 only fleet faster than originally expected, while eagerly awaiting the Max’s return to service, the Panama-based carrier tells analysts during the airline’s quarterly earnings call.

“As part of its plan to increase efficiencies, the company has decided to accelerate the exit of its E190 fleet and is planning to sell the remaining 14 aircraft over the next 18 months, three years earlier than previously planned,” Copa says in a statement on 14 November.

Copa chief executive Pedro Heilbron says E190s have fulfilled their mission and the company looks forward to significant financial and operational benefits from flying a 737-only fleet. Routes covered by the 100-seater Embraer regional jet will in the future be operated by larger-capacity 737NGs or replaced by the Max, once it returns to service.


Copa expedites E190 retirements
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ts-462235/


I’m not sure I see it as a complete vote of confidence in Boeing and the MAX at all really, but is a decision built on necessity.

It has built its fleet plan around the 737 for a long time and invested heavily in the MAX for it’s future fleet plan. In doing so, it does not have many options in the near term to change that decision, as Airbus can’t exactly offer many slots for its A320 series.

The E190 is not an aircraft that seems to stack up these days, so focusing on the platform it knows and has ordered more of makes sense. It will just have to wait though and stay the course with patience waiting to see what transpired with the MAX.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:39 pm

precure787 wrote:
Probably the E190s are no longer economically viable to many major airlines. AA would phase out the E190s by 2020, probably replacing them with A321NEO and 737s. JetBlue is doing so with the A220-300 as a replacement aircraft for the E190 (effectively becoming an all-Airbus fleet). Air Canada too with the A220-300 replacing the E190.



I agree. The E190 made sense 10+ years ago. It was able to offer a competitive cabin product with a (slightly) less per airplane cost. If an airline were only going to carry around 80 passengers, the E190 made sense.

However, as the business evolved, it appears that COPA is coming to the same conclusion as JetBlue and Air Canada. The economies of scale of larger aircraft are overcoming the limited economics of the E190. I don't see this as a slight against the aircraft, just its low capacity ... and oddly curious high fuel burn.
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:42 pm

Is the cabin comfortable from a passenger perspective on the 190?

As a side note, in 2018 my AA VVI-MIA cancelled for mechanical. AA booked me on Copa thru PTY and onto MIA, I really enjoyed their service in J, I would use them again if I can get on their lay flats. Great FA's, food, easy transfer, all around professional.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:49 pm

Has CP have any Max 10's on order?
 
SEU
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:58 pm

Another current E190 "E1" operator not interested in the E2.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:28 pm

precure787 wrote:
Probably the E190s are no longer economically viable to many major airlines. AA would phase out the E190s by 2020, probably replacing them with A321NEO and 737s. JetBlue is doing so with the A220-300 as a replacement aircraft for the E190 (effectively becoming an all-Airbus fleet). Air Canada too with the A220-300 replacing the E190.

It is interesting that so many E1-190 operators moved on instead of buying E2s. This is why, in my opinion, AeroMexico is such a critical operator. With 47 E1-19x to replace and a few E1-17x, only Chinese opperators are left, which won't inspire other buyers.

Embraer winning the #2 E-195 at Azul was a must win. After Copa, AA, AC, and JetBlue, so is AeroMexico.

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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
precure787 wrote:
Probably the E190s are no longer economically viable to many major airlines. AA would phase out the E190s by 2020, probably replacing them with A321NEO and 737s. JetBlue is doing so with the A220-300 as a replacement aircraft for the E190 (effectively becoming an all-Airbus fleet). Air Canada too with the A220-300 replacing the E190.

It is interesting that so many E1-190 operators moved on instead of buying E2s. This is why, in my opinion, AeroMexico is such a critical operator. With 47 E1-19x to replace and a few E1-17x, only Chinese opperators are left, which won't inspire other buyers.

Embraer winning the #2 E-195 at Azul was a must win. After Copa, AA, AC, and JetBlue, so is AeroMexico.

Lightsaber


lightsaber is right. We have to remember the concept came up in the 90s, when fuel was dirt cheap and it was pitched
as a more comfortable alternative. It largely got ditched here in Australia because it couldn't get off short runways in
outback conditions and carry large cargo so it didn't really do the job but the older 717 had no problems doing it.
Remember not everything is just minimising cost. That assumes revenue is constant and ignores things like expensive
cargo. The old NW deliberately flew the DC-9 on routes for this exact reason. As do the Canadians with the 737-200.

I think its pretty clear it looks like the A220 is going to have a bright future, even if it is a growth and if oil prices go up
yet again... not off the cards because nobody has a clue whats going to happen in the Middle East, frequency will once
again become less important.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:50 am

This could also be a story of how scope clauses are killing E190 resale values. The E175 has a heavy USA concentration, but regionals can’t upgauge and the E190 is too small for mainline. I’m actually surprised that SAS doesn’t show E190 or E290 interest to upgauge from the CRJ9 for regional operations. (Wideroe does operate the E290.) Stobart could also consider these for Virgin Connect, acquiring frames via its in-house lessor.

Also remember that Avianca is having a hard time finding buyers for its owner E190s. Also surprising is that Canadian operators don’t consider this as a better right size option than the 737 Classic (B733-5)...it would save on a FA even in a Y112 configuration.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:47 am

DCA350 wrote:
Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.

Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:57 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Also surprising is that Canadian operators don’t consider this as a better right size option than the 737 Classic (B733-5)...it would save on a FA even in a Y112 configuration.


How would a Y112 configuration save a flight attendant vs. a 733 or 735?
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:00 am

PacoMartin wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.

Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.


If they’re operating their 737s just fine on these routes, why would they need the A321XLR?
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:07 am

hOMSaR wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Also surprising is that Canadian operators don’t consider this as a better right size option than the 737 Classic (B733-5)...it would save on a FA even in a Y112 configuration.


How would a Y112 configuration save a flight attendant vs. a 733 or 735?


It wouldn't. The default is 1 for every 40 pax, not 50 like in the States.
xx
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:35 am

Does Copa have any maintenance agreements with United? Most importantly, with the scale they have now with their PTY hub, makes sense to upgauge to 737s from EMBs. They seem to run a consistent operation, the one family no doubt will add to that.

hOMSaR wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.

Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.


If they’re operating their 737s just fine on these routes, why would they need the A321XLR?


Only way to operate a profitable airline is with A321XLRs.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:51 am

PacoMartin wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.

Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.


It's a long shot but I do believe a fleet of 20-30 would suit them well. They aren't going WB anytime soon and could definitely use the capacity of the A321. Their flights to LA, NYC, Brazil and Argentina often go out packed.. The A321 would also offer some cargo on these routes. They don't fly to SEA or YVR at this moment because it is out of range of the 737, although I'm not sure if the Max could make it.
Last edited by DCA350 on Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
DCA350
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:58 am

hOMSaR wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.

Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.


If they’re operating their 737s just fine on these routes, why would they need the A321XLR?


Why does any airline look to upgrade it's fleet? The 737 is a great aircraft, but it's widely known that the A320 series is more efficient on longer routes.. I'm only suggesting the XLR because COPA flies some of the longest NB routes in the world, and the capacity and efficiency of the XLR could open up new routes, while also boosting the bottom line. As previously stated it's a long shot but with the right offer I could see COPA taking at least a look.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:32 am

If there is any potentially profitable route in the Americas that Copa can't reach with the MAX, if it's worthy enough, it will get a United metal operation and Copa will benefit through the JV they are going to establish.

So, no need for A321s.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:05 am

usxguy wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Also surprising is that Canadian operators don’t consider this as a better right size option than the 737 Classic (B733-5)...it would save on a FA even in a Y112 configuration.


How would a Y112 configuration save a flight attendant vs. a 733 or 735?


It wouldn't. The default is 1 for every 40 pax, not 50 like in the States.


Excuse me, but that is isn't true. You need 1 FA for every 50 seats or fraction.
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:27 am

What is the problem with the E190? Is it just that they are getting old and needed replacing anyway? As a passenger I actually find these aircraft far superior to anything else on offer. They used to be used by Ukranian Airlines from London to Gatwick and they were so much better than the 737 with their big windows and their wide, comfortable seats.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:28 am

Tikchik wrote:
Is the cabin comfortable from a passenger perspective on the 190?


The E190-5 is a dream to fly on.

I guess its economics are marginal though, so many airlines are retiring them early !
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:43 am

DCA350 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Copa is loyal to BA.. But I really wonder with the right offer could AB place the A321 NEO/LRs with them.. They really push their 737 to the Max, no pun intended, with their deep SA routes and West Coast US routes.

Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.


It's a long shot but I do believe a fleet of 20-30 would suit them well. They aren't going WB anytime soon and could definitely use the capacity of the A321. Their flights to LA, NYC, Brazil and Argentina often go out packed.. The A321 would also offer some cargo on these routes. They don't fly to SEA or YVR at this moment because it is out of range of the 737, although I'm not sure if the Max could make it.


http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=PTY-SFO/mvd%0d%0ayqx%0d%0apty-mad%0d%0asju%0d%0asea%0d%0aPDX%0d%0aYVR&R=5447km%40PTY+&MS=wls&MP=ortho&MC=PTY&MX=540x540&PM=*

It is 4,408 nm to Madrid, and the XLR has a nominal range of 4,700 nm so that is a possibility for COPA.San Juan might function as a backup refueling stop in harsh winter winds on the westbound journey.
 
DCA350
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:00 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
Panama City to Montevideo 5,447 km Boeing 737-800
Panama City San Francisco 5,342 km Boeing 737-???

I agree. You would think that they would consider the A321LR or XLR.


It's a long shot but I do believe a fleet of 20-30 would suit them well. They aren't going WB anytime soon and could definitely use the capacity of the A321. Their flights to LA, NYC, Brazil and Argentina often go out packed.. The A321 would also offer some cargo on these routes. They don't fly to SEA or YVR at this moment because it is out of range of the 737, although I'm not sure if the Max could make it.


http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=PTY-SFO/mvd%0d%0ayqx%0d%0apty-mad%0d%0asju%0d%0asea%0d%0aPDX%0d%0aYVR&R=5447km%40PTY+&MS=wls&MP=ortho&MC=PTY&MX=540x540&PM=*

It is 4,408 nm to Madrid, and the XLR has a nominal range of 4,700 nm so that is a possibility for COPA.San Juan might function as a backup refueling stop in harsh winter winds on the westbound journey.


Thank you for this.. I didn't even think about Europe, figured that would be a bridge to far.
 
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:47 pm

DCA350 wrote:
It's a long shot but I do believe a fleet of 20-30 would suit them well.


A subfleet of 20-30 narrowbodies is too small for economies of scale. (And what plausible COPA routes are too far for a MAX8/9/10 but within the range of a 321XLR -- enough to fill your 20-30 frame subfleet?)

COPA's eighty-three-strong 737-700, -800, MAX9 fleet averages 8.0 years old according to planespotters.net, so skip the wet dream of an all-32xneo fleet.
 
avi8
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:25 pm

Copa has the 737-9 MAX with flat beds for its longest routes. They also ordered the 737-10 MAX, so my guess is that’s their strategy for the time being.
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OzarkD9S
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:59 pm

airzona11 wrote:

Only way to operate a profitable airline is with A321XLRs.


Really?!?!?!? :rotfl:
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
airzona11
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:00 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
airzona11 wrote:

Only way to operate a profitable airline is with A321XLRs.


Really?!?!?!? :rotfl:


Haha I was being sarcastic, but if you only read Anet, that’s what you’d be led to believe. In no way would it make sense for Copa to add a new type with a sub fleet of A321s.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:20 pm

airzona11 wrote:

Haha I was being sarcastic, but if you only read Anet, that’s what you’d be led to believe. In no way would it make sense for Copa to add a new type with a sub fleet of A321s.


I see, but next time please use winking smiley face or something. You really had me going there.... :D
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
trueblew
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:00 pm

With all these used E190s on the market the resale value has got to be near zero. How might this affect B6's retirement schedule of their 30 fully-owned E190s?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COPA to go all 737; phase out E190s

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:22 am

trueblew wrote:
With all these used E190s on the market the resale value has got to be near zero. How might this affect B6's retirement schedule of their 30 fully-owned E190s?

Please see the aircraft lease and value threads
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422705

EMB190 – $11.5 – 31.5M, $135-265,000

I personally expect the values to decline. JetBlue started E190 operations in 2005. None of the original have yet been sold, so they should be worth a little less than the lower bound.

So is $11.5 million usd near zero? No. However basic supply and demand theory tells us pricing will drop as supply increases. We already have the leasing companies as well as airlines marketing these planes years before removal from service. So some of the impact has already happened.

E-190s are finding homes based on posts in other threads. We get into echo chambers on a.net and make problems much bigger than they are. That is why numbers matter. Enough E-175s and E-190s trade hands each quarter to make the values plausible. The E-170 and E-195 are not in the value threads as too few (if any) change hands per quarter to give a market value that withstands any scrutiny.

In the Dubai other thread CIAF air Leasing just bought 3 brand new E-190s.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1435129&p=21799047#p21799047

Leasing companies are usually quite sensible and know the resale values. If they thought the value was zero, they would not have bought.

I too have concerns about the aftermarket of the larger E-Jets as Azul, JetBlue, AA, AC, and Copa are retiring the type with AeroMexico and TAP Portugal actively shopping for replacement aircraft for their CF-34-10 powered E-Jets. But, so far, the market has been resilient.

Now opportunistic buyers are showing up (Moxie). They will negotiate the market down (or move on, the nature of opportunistic buyers). But not to zero.

Lightsaber
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Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos