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EIEIDW
Posts: 117
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:22 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:43 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
EIEIDW wrote:
How there are now Denver - Dublin flights is beyond me. Real opportunity for delta to open up this route. What do you think?

Why would Delta be the one to fly it? That seems left field. They only fly JFK, BOS and ATL. Not even nearly all their own hubs much less some random P2P routes.


Well I’m very sorry that I’m not clued up on the Denver aviation scene. I simply suggested delta as I though they had a hub in Denver. Denver & Detroit sound similar! Who is Denver’s main international airline? United?
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:44 pm

EIEIDW wrote:
How there are now Denver - Dublin flights is beyond me. Real opportunity for delta to open up this route. What do you think?


Why would this be a Delta route????
 
EIEIDW
Posts: 117
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:22 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:46 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
EIEIDW wrote:
How there are now Denver - Dublin flights is beyond me. Real opportunity for delta to open up this route. What do you think?

Why would Delta be the one to fly it? That seems left field. They only fly JFK, BOS and ATL. Not even nearly all their own hubs much less some random P2P routes.


I apologise, I mixed Denver with Detroit. Who is your based airline? United?
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:49 pm

EIEIDW wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
EIEIDW wrote:
How there are now Denver - Dublin flights is beyond me. Real opportunity for delta to open up this route. What do you think?

Why would Delta be the one to fly it? That seems left field. They only fly JFK, BOS and ATL. Not even nearly all their own hubs much less some random P2P routes.


I apologise, I mixed Denver with Detroit. Who is your based airline? United?


Yes United, and I think DUB could be a good route out of DEN on a seasonal basis.
 
mcg
Posts: 1110
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:08 pm

DEN1895 wrote:
COSPN wrote:
What happened to the walking tunnel to A that was demanded by the “old” Continental Airlines (they did not trust the train concept “


No tunnel was ever built, just the bridge to Concourse A.


It's worth noting that the A bridge security site will be closed when the main terminal remodel is completed. Everybody has to get on the train. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 3:18 am

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:30 pm

EIEIDW wrote:
How there are now Denver - Dublin flights is beyond me. Real opportunity for delta to open up this route. What do you think?


what is the opportunity?
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:53 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
I could see it surpassing ORD...it's not really THAT far off.


DEN was only 13.4% fewer boardings than ORD last year (on United). Of course SFO is only 4.5% fewer boardings than DEN.

Delta is running 50% of their domestic seats coming or going from ATL.
American is running 50% of their domestic seats coming or going from DFW and CLT.

United seems more content not to have megahub.

2018 Domestic Boarding in millions
Chicago, IL 10.54
Denver, CO 9.13
San Francisco, CA 8.72
Houston, TX 8.47
Newark, NJ 8.08
Other 40.96
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2174
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:15 pm

mcg wrote:
DEN1895 wrote:
COSPN wrote:
What happened to the walking tunnel to A that was demanded by the “old” Continental Airlines (they did not trust the train concept “


No tunnel was ever built, just the bridge to Concourse A.


It's worth noting that the A bridge security site will be closed when the main terminal remodel is completed. Everybody has to get on the train. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.


This is incorrect. The bridge will still be there, and still be accessable. However, the security screening will be on a different level, prior to going to the bridge. You will still be able to use the bridge.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:52 pm

SteelChair wrote:
DEN is too far west. 2/3 of the US population lives east of the Mississippi, and that will always favor ATL and ORD imo.


There is something to be said for location. The average number of miles to the other 56 airports in Continental USA follow
896 BNA (Nashville)
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN
1189 EWR
1310 MIA
1542 LAX


The 57 largest airports in CONUS used to calculate data above.
ATL
LAX
ORD
DFW
DEN
JFK
SFO
SEA
LAS
MCO
EWR
CLT
PHX
IAH
MIA
BOS
MSP
FLL
DTW
PHL
LGA
BWI
SLC
SAN
IAD
DCA
MDW
TPA
PDX
BNA
DAL
AUS
STL
HOU
SJC
OAK
MSY
RDU
SMF
MCI
SNA
SAT
CLE
PIT
IND
RSW
CVG
CMH
MKE
BDL
PBI
JAX
BUR
ABQ
BUF
ONT
OMA
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3632
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:39 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
DEN is too far west. 2/3 of the US population lives east of the Mississippi, and that will always favor ATL and ORD imo.


There is something to be said for location. The average number of miles to the other 56 airports in Continental USA follow
896 BNA (Nashville)
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN
1189 EWR
1310 MIA
1542 LAX



What conclusion are you drawing from this?
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 947
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:39 am

PacoMartin wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
I could see it surpassing ORD...it's not really THAT far off.


DEN was only 13.4% fewer boardings than ORD last year (on United). Of course SFO is only 4.5% fewer boardings than DEN.

Delta is running 50% of their domestic seats coming or going from ATL.
American is running 50% of their domestic seats coming or going from DFW and CLT.

United seems more content not to have megahub.

2018 Domestic Boarding in millions
Chicago, IL 10.54
Denver, CO 9.13
San Francisco, CA 8.72
Houston, TX 8.47
Newark, NJ 8.08
Other 40.96


It’s not that they don’t want a megahub, it’s that they can’t really have one. ORD has too much competition, DEN is not in a very populous region and IAH is too far south. I guarantee you if AA ever dehubbed ORD, we would see UA expand to 1,000+ flights there.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5089
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:54 am

EIEIDW wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
EIEIDW wrote:
How there are now Denver - Dublin flights is beyond me. Real opportunity for delta to open up this route. What do you think?

Why would Delta be the one to fly it? That seems left field. They only fly JFK, BOS and ATL. Not even nearly all their own hubs much less some random P2P routes.


I apologise, I mixed Denver with Detroit. Who is your based airline? United?[/quote
with Delta having hubs at SLC and MSP DEN wouldn't be more than a Line station they serve. though with the new A220's? they could very well make some noise and at a minimum cost.
 
mcg
Posts: 1110
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:58 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
A good addition to the train would be to do a gondola like Whistler's Peak 2 Peak. It is 4,200 person capacity with a lot of space between cars. This one has a huge span over the valley, a normal gondola spacing and 16 pax vs 10 so a 10K capacity. At DEN, the towers only need to clear the taxiway, not the full width between concourses. It would look good with the main terminal tent roof, advertise skiing and the outdoors, and be the greatest thing for spotters. Imagine watching the airport from 12 stories up. At the 4,200 pax, that is 21 NB's per hour at 10 . 64M pax / year is 175K/day or 11K per hour. A 10K/hr gondola and the existing train would add a lot of capacity at probably the lowest cost.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKBzXZ6D-nk


I know a company that builds cableway transport systems that has had zero success getting even an introductory meeting with DIA management.
 
mcg
Posts: 1110
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:02 am

Schweigend wrote:
I was living in Denver from the early '80s through the mid-'90s -- during the conception and execution of DIA. I won't delve into the political fights, airline battles, and cost overruns that ensued.

However, I always thought that there should have been multiple train platforms in the underground station at the main terminal -- with a different track leading to each Concourse.

I mean DIA should have been built with room for a large station underneath Jeppesen, having separate platforms leading to each of the three (potentially four) concourses.

So you have to go to B? -- Then go to the B platform, and you'll be on a train with pax bound only for there.

Wanna go to C? All you have to do is get on the C train.

The way it is now, everyone is on the same solitary packed rail line, stopping at each of the concourses, like a "local" line instead of an "express". Unpleasant.

Just as with the lack of a tunnel allowing for people to walk between the concourses if the need should arise, there seems at present to be no way to have multiple train tracks separately reaching each terminal.

I suppose they could accomplish this using the existing infrastructure by having many more railcars than now, with different ones earmarked for each unique terminal, but that would add to delays and crowding, I think.


Interesting solution, but the additional excavation probably made it cost prohibitive. I always understood that the reason there is no walkway along the train line is that the cost associated with additional excavation required to make the trench bigger and additional finish work required made the walkway an easy budget cut as the airport was built.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:25 am

BNAMealer wrote:
It’s not that they don’t want a megahub, it’s that they can’t really have one. ORD has too much competition, DEN is not in a very populous region and IAH is too far south. I guarantee you if AA ever dehubbed ORD, we would see UA expand to 1,000+ flights there.


I could envision AA moving a large number of connections from ORD to DFW to try and leverage the scale and ORD dropping below MIA in number of passengers, but I still find it difficult to envision UA at ORD to surpass AA at CLT.

United Airlines domestic passenger boarding in millions (2018)
Chicago, IL 10.54
Denver, CO 9.13
San Francisco, CA 8.72
Houston, TX 8.47
Newark, NJ 8.08
Other 40.96

American Airlines domestic passenger boarding in millions (2018)
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX 19.58
Charlotte, NC 12.45
Chicago, IL 8.66
Phoenix, AZ 7.63
Miami, FL 7.27
Other 63.89

The average number of miles to the other 56 biggest airports in Continental USA follow
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3632
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:37 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

The average number of miles to the other 56 biggest airports in Continental USA follow
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN

I'll ask again, what are you trying to conclude from this? Distance does not equal market opportunity.
 
bigb
Posts: 1134
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:30 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:15 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

The average number of miles to the other 56 biggest airports in Continental USA follow
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN

I'll ask again, what are you trying to conclude from this? Distance does not equal market opportunity.


In some ways it can because of the number of frequencies can and increase with a shorter distance between major markets. One of the reasons why CLT and ATL see a large number of passengers. Both are located on the east coast with a lot of big markets that located under 2 hours of block time.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3632
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:25 pm

bigb wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

The average number of miles to the other 56 biggest airports in Continental USA follow
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN

I'll ask again, what are you trying to conclude from this? Distance does not equal market opportunity.


In some ways it can because of the number of frequencies can and increase with a shorter distance between major markets. One of the reasons why CLT and ATL see a large number of passengers. Both are located on the east coast with a lot of big markets that located under 2 hours of block time.


It has nothing to do with block time, it has to do with circuity. They have lots of flights to MCO because they are efficient connect points from a lot of places that don't have non-stop service (or not enough to cover demand). And this applies to a lot of markets. Nothing to do with distance.
 
bigb
Posts: 1134
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:30 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:35 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
bigb wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
I'll ask again, what are you trying to conclude from this? Distance does not equal market opportunity.


In some ways it can because of the number of frequencies can and increase with a shorter distance between major markets. One of the reasons why CLT and ATL see a large number of passengers. Both are located on the east coast with a lot of big markets that located under 2 hours of block time.


It has nothing to do with block time, it has to do with circuity. They have lots of flights to MCO because they are efficient connect points from a lot of places that don't have non-stop service (or not enough to cover demand). And this applies to a lot of markets. Nothing to do with distance.


You can’t sit here and ignore block time/distance. Common sense says the shorter the distance the more frequencies can be ran between two city pairs. If you have a lot of demand between two city pairs, an airline can run more flights between a hub-outstation. I see it with flights in and out CLT and ATL a long the east coast. Of course that’s more factors that come in play with time and aircraft routing.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:02 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
What conclusion are you drawing from this?

Average miles to 56 CONUS airports
923 ORD
959 ATL
980 DFW
996 CLT
1037 IAH
1097 DEN

My friend used to say that transportation business eventually comes down simple numbers as it gets more mature. The train freight business eventually breaks down to gradient of each companiy's tracks as that reflects the amount of energy needed to move the freight. Since prices even out, the company with the lower cost wins.

The airline business is not that cut and dried since so much revenue depends on premium seating which we have no insight.

But I would think that 923-996 average miles for ORD/ATL/DFW/CLT will keep the operations from airlines UA/AA/DL as the top in the country.
The further average distance from IAH and DEN will mean that they will not grow to the top of the heap despite their larger area for growth.

I must conclude that the international travel is still primarily about origin and destination so the JFK/LAX/MIA stay on top . We keep hearing about airlines moving inland like Qantas to DFW for the connections, but it hasn't shown up in the gross numbers.
STL is probably the airport closest to the center of CONUS, but I don't see it coming back to one of the largest airports again.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: DEN- How much can it grow?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:54 am

bigb wrote:
You can’t sit here and ignore block time/distance. Common sense says the shorter the distance the more frequencies can be ran between two city pairs. If you have a lot of demand between two city pairs, an airline can run more flights between a hub-outstation. I see it with flights in and out CLT and ATL a long the east coast. Of course that’s more factors that come in play with time and aircraft routing.


Of United's top 5 hubs, ORD is much more centrally located and SFO is more remote, while DEN, IAH, EWR are about the same,

Domestic MAP boarding 2018 - airport - average distance to other 28 major CONUS airports
10.54 ORD 976
9.13 DEN 1178
8.72 SFO 1780
8.47 IAH 1159
8.08 EWR 1149
40.96 Other

I would be shocked if SFO becomes United busiest domestic transfer hub in the next decade.

We have seen the decline of STL, PIT and CLE as international flying becomes more substantial. It is possible that decades in the future international connections will be so dominant that the major domestic transfer hubs will move to the coast, but for the time being I think it has to be airports within a few hundred miles of Missouri (the population center of CONUS).

Updating the statistics by 8 months does not change the order of the hubs
(September 2018 - August 2019)
Chicago, IL 10.81m
Denver, CO 9.84m
San Francisco, CA 8.56m
Houston, TX 8.50m
Newark, NJ 8.15m
Other 41.94m

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