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clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1684
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:33 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
BA LHR-MIA APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]

Wow, BA continues to cut MIA into peak summer after trimming it for late fall '19 and into winter/spring '20! Looking at a random date (May 15th) there's only 3 flights on BA/AA. How can two large OW hubs see such little service? Seems OS isn't the only struggling on MIA-Europe.

Looking at the same date (May 15th) BA/AA have 5 FLIGHTS, one still an A380, between BOS-LHR and BOS isn't even a OW hub. I'm guessing BOS has definitely overtaken MIA as a larger local market to London.


Okay, so let's look at this:

Brickell305 wrote:
1. Summer isn’t peak for LHR-MIA


This isn't just summer. From the OAG thread on 10/20/19:

BA LHR-MIA DEC 3>2[3] JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3] MAR 3>2[3]

Brickell305 wrote:
2. AA is adding a second flight to replace the BA capacity. It just hasn’t been loaded yet.


So AA has added their new BOS-LHR which is due to start at the same time, but nothing has been added in MIA. Why would AA not have loaded it if it's due to start in the spring and spring schedules have been out for a while?

Brickell305 wrote:
3. AFAIK MIA-LHR is a larger local market. BOS likely sees that many flights due to connx at the LHR end and due to the fact that due to geography, O&D traffic between the two is less likely to connect via a third city. That is to say, LHR-MIA traffic has a few more logical connecting hubs (ATL, CLT, JFK, etc.) than BOS-LHR would have.


I'm still going with BOS being a larger local market now. However, if someone has the actual stats with a source I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Just look at flights on May 15th.

MIA - LON:

2x BA
1x AA
1x DY

BOS - LON:
4X BA
1X AA
2X VS
2X DL (1 LHR & 1 LGW)
1X DY

BOS will have 10 daily flights to LON while MIA will have 4.
 
B752OS
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:31 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
BA LHR-MIA APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]

MIA - LON:

2x BA
1x AA
1x DY

BOS - LON:
4X BA
1X AA
2X VS
2X DL (1 LHR & 1 LGW)
1X DY

BOS will have 10 daily flights to LON while MIA will have 4.


You forgot VS, which serves LHR-MIA daily.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:36 pm

B752OS wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
BA LHR-MIA APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]

MIA - LON:

2x BA
1x AA
1x DY

BOS - LON:
4X BA
1X AA
2X VS
2X DL (1 LHR & 1 LGW)
1X DY

BOS will have 10 daily flights to LON while MIA will have 4.


You forgot VS, which serves LHR-MIA daily.


Yes, you’re correct. VS is 1x on 5/15/20. So BOS is still double MIA on flights to LON. How could MIA possibly be a larger local market when BOS has between 1.5-2x the number of flights?
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:00 pm

tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
You have to wonder how much longer AA can hold out in NY?

Even LGA is seeing cuts.

If I was WN or B6 I would be calling AA about an NYC asset sale.


What are you expecting? That AA puts a for sale sign out? And what assets would they sell exactly? In the next downturn, I still see AA buying up B6.


In the next downturn, AA should worry about chapter 11.

It's actually B6 that would struggle in a downturn. It is leveraged to the hilt and has high fixed costs.

B6 should call AA asap about those JFK slots. If B6 can offer 3 or 4 DCA slots to AA, I'm sure AA would trade a whole lot of JFK slots or some LGA slots for that. Too bad DOJ probably wouldn't allow AA to obtain more DCA slots.

Aliqiout wrote:
Prost wrote:
AA PHX-SEA only has 2 flights? That is prime Arizona travel time as us Seattleites are craving anything that resembles sunshine. I know it’s highly competitive, but you’d think they’d try harder, they have a large hub on one end after all.

Probably pretty hard to compete against AS for SEA POS. Didn't AS just increase frequency on this recently?

Exactly. AA isn't exactly doing well right now. So in a battle where it's probably running lower margin against an airline with lower cost and have better system wide margin like AS, it's going to have to dial back.

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria.

You are right. Looks like DL is completely out of PAP. I don't see any flights out of JFK either. MIA seems to just be AF. Things must be going really bad out there if they can't make it work from ATL. Really interesting that even out of NYC with its large expat population, it can't support even 2 flights a day in January.


I have to think the issue is just not business traffic and that's what DL mostly cares about. It's not a redemption destination either, so they can't justify it by mollifying their elites with a place to go on vacation. It's nearly a pure ethnic market, although every time I'm in ATL the crowd in the boarding area was church groups going down for a mission. Not a high yield demo either.


But if that's the case, then there is no reason for them to run flights to places like MGA, SAP and GUA out of ATL. All these places are VFR + missionaries. Given how much more O&D there is out of South Florida, DL is always going to be relying more on connections to make these work.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:09 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
It's actually B6 that would struggle in a downturn. It is leveraged to the hilt and has high fixed costs.


Maybe you can take a look at the Quarterly earnings report. B6 and WN are the lowest debt ratios in the industry.

Total debt 1.6 billion
Equity 4.76 billion
Total Asset 11.3 billion
Cash and cash equivalent 695 million
Total Investment securities 304 million

As a comparison
https://skift.com/2019/01/22/travel-bra ... -the-pain/
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:53 pm

BA suspension related to Trent issues. It will upgauge one flight to 380 and AA extend its new second flight inTo the summer but not loaded yet. VS is 2x on MIALHR during winter. Keep in mind that AA/BA is still at same frequency on MIALHR as last year - AA added a new flight.

When you suffer from a fleet shortage, the most obvious place to cut is trunk routes where the capacity is easily replaced by your partners - in this case not only AA, but Iberia and Finnair.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 00-461899/

Again, yet another example of how these threads are great but absent context, people lead to wild and inaccurate conclusions.

Miami is a larger local market to London than Boston, just the substantial additional demand during winter makes up for it, but the difference has never been substantial. We are talking a 50k lead or less. Literally any city in Europe except Dublin, Manchester, Shannon and the Azores, Miami is larger than Boston, just because of Miami’s popularity with European tourists. Boston is definitely a larger market during the summer, there’s no doubt. Boston-Europe especially is going to be brutal for airlines this summer. And JetBlue will make things worse. Doesn’t look good. Miami has way too many seats, too, but airlines have been smarter about trimming capacity more appropriately during the slower summer months as opposed in the past few years (the inverse has been true for Boston - airlines have always been smart about trimming Boston-Europe during the winter substantially).

Both still suffer from overcapacity though. Way too many flights. I used to think it was a toss up between Miami and SF for most over served to Europe but now it’s definitely Boston. Thankfully for airlines it has a georgrpahy advantage, so the losses will be a lot easier to handle and it’s easy to flow domestic connecting capacity through the airport, you’d can’t do that at Miami or SF.
Last edited by MAH4546 on Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:17 pm, edited 8 times in total.
a.
 
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tlecam
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:00 pm

The may be more appropriate for another hub but after The max cuts end and the JFK runway work completes (is it done?), what do we expect AA will do at JFK?
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
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klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:40 am

DL CDG-DTW AUG 2>1.0[2]


Why would Delta cut a flight like this in the height of the summer travel season.


DL JFK-TXL APR 0.7>0[0]


Is this not operating in summer 2020
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:53 am

klm617 wrote:
DL CDG-DTW AUG 2>1.0[2]


Why would Delta cut a flight like this in the height of the summer travel season.


That does look suspicious. Look for a refile next week, either the return of the 2nd DL op or an added AF op.

klm617 wrote:

DL JFK-TXL APR 0.7>0[0]


Is this not operating in summer 2020


It's in the schedule to start May 1.
 
sprxUSA
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:09 am

The ibcentive $ already gone for PSC-LAX? Didn't last long. I suspect SCK won't be around long either.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
777Mech
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:08 am

Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:16 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
FlyPNS1 wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

Seriously - have UA's OKC-IAD and AA's OKC-DCA taken that much traffic away from WN? Pretty drastic cutbacks by WN lately.


Well WN also flies OKC-DCA 1x daily. Just a few years ago, there were no flights on OKC-DCA....now there are two daily (1 AA and 1 WN). UA is also adding a 2nd flight on OKC-IAD in April.


Plenty of capacity. Its a short term cut during a low travel demand month. Really not a big deal or some slight against OKC.

I’m pretty sure all the WN cuts are MAX cuts.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:28 am

admanager wrote:
UA PAE-SFO APR 4>3[4]
Paine continues to see its service being re-balanced after now 9 months of service. Last was AS dropping one LAX to add GEG. .
What will UA do with this slot? Add another Denver or get creative with something like ORD or IAH.


They moved one of the frequencies to DEN further up the list Of updates.
 
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chepos
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:57 am

777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.


As much as some of you jump up and down, cry foul, get outraged, etc., which is a repeat exercise each time a roll out of these cancelations occur. It is doubtful AA is going to close the station and leave JFK as you are requesting.


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9w748capt
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:05 am

FlyPNS1 wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
:banghead: :bomb: :mad:

The screwing of OKC continues by WN.


Seriously - have UA's OKC-IAD and AA's OKC-DCA taken that much traffic away from WN? Pretty drastic cutbacks by WN lately.


Well WN also flies OKC-DCA 1x daily. Just a few years ago, there were no flights on OKC-DCA....now there are two daily (1 AA and 1 WN). UA is also adding a 2nd flight on OKC-IAD in April.


That's right - I forgot WN had started OKC-DCA already. Makes more sense now. DCA must be doing well so the BWI loss isn't a big deal.
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:59 am

777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.

The runway construction was never the reason for the cuts. It was what allowed them to make the cuts without facing the repercussions of losing slots. AA is fleet constrained and is adjusting to that by cutting where it’s weakest. Absent them being forced to fly their full slot portfolio despite the MAX grounding, I don’t see them re-adding anything to NYC until the planes are back. I also don’t see them leaving completely either as their LHR strength alone justifies a moderately sized presence in NYC.
 
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Amwest2United
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:11 am

admanager wrote:
UA PAE-SFO APR 4>3[4]
Paine continues to see its service being re-balanced after now 9 months of service. Last was AS dropping one LAX to add GEG. .
What will UA do with this slot? Add another Denver or get creative with something like ORD or IAH.


My guess would be ORD, UA has launched Summer Non-Stop UAX flights from ORD to MFR and EUG, with the EUG flights continuing into the winter. It would be a long flight for an E75 in the winter to PAE, but the Summer may work well. Just a thought
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chepos
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:23 am

Brickell305 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.

The runway construction was never the reason for the cuts. It was what allowed them to make the cuts without facing the repercussions of losing slots. AA is fleet constrained and is adjusting to that by cutting where it’s weakest. Absent them being forced to fly their full slot portfolio despite the MAX grounding, I don’t see them re-adding anything to NYC until the planes are back. I also don’t see them leaving completely either as their LHR strength alone justifies a moderately sized presence in NYC.


It is quite interesting, if you look at the AA section of the post for the month of FEB there were widespread cuts at multiple locations. Yet interestingly some seem to fixate on JFK, which gets people all excited.



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ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:30 am

sprxUSA wrote:
The ibcentive $ already gone for PSC-LAX? Didn't last long. I suspect SCK won't be around long either.


Possibly, but they are getting PSC-ORD in June, so maybe reallocating the money to a different route? The timings (late afternoon) down to LAX are terrible for connections or business. ACV and RDD recently got LAX flights, but they leave early morning and come back late at night...I'm wondering why those timings aren't being done.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:33 am

Amwest2United wrote:
admanager wrote:
UA PAE-SFO APR 4>3[4]
Paine continues to see its service being re-balanced after now 9 months of service. Last was AS dropping one LAX to add GEG. .
What will UA do with this slot? Add another Denver or get creative with something like ORD or IAH.


My guess would be ORD, UA has launched Summer Non-Stop UAX flights from ORD to MFR and EUG, with the EUG flights continuing into the winter. It would be a long flight for an E75 in the winter to PAE, but the Summer may work well. Just a thought


It’s Denver:

UA DEN-PAE JAN 3>2[0] APR 2>3[2.0]
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:48 pm

AA serving PHL-DEN less than daily in February

DEN is such a popular destination and not served out of DCA, one would think connections from the Northeast alone would warrant Daily service out of PHL. Feb is a popular time of year and they are operating a 319 on the days that they do. Kind of weird to operate like a ULCC when they are a network carrier. I think a poor decision on AAs part to not serve such a major city daily for the network. I know they have MAX cancellations and things to work around but I would think AA could support daily 319 service from PHL to DEN during the peak of ski season.
Last edited by slcdeltarumd11 on Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
adam47150
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:54 pm

*9K BNA-OWB

This new service came out of 9K's latest bid for the OWB EAS contract.
 
Sightseer
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:59 pm

chepos wrote:
It is quite interesting, if you look at the AA section of the post for the month of FEB there were widespread cuts at multiple locations. Yet interestingly some seem to fixate on JFK, which gets people all excited.

It's because 1) JFK is a slot-constrained airport, so people wonder how long those slots can go unused, and 2) AA was already cutting JFK before the runway/MAX issues, so people also wonder if they're irreparably harming their operation there. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think DCA and LGA have seen reductions to the same degree JFK has, if they've seen any at all.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:59 pm

chepos wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.


As much as some of you jump up and down, cry foul, get outraged, etc., which is a repeat exercise each time a roll out of these cancelations occur. It is doubtful AA is going to close the station and leave JFK as you are requesting.


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capitalflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:27 pm

chepos wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.


As much as some of you jump up and down, cry foul, get outraged, etc., which is a repeat exercise each time a roll out of these cancelations occur. It is doubtful AA is going to close the station and leave JFK as you are requesting.


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Agreed. With most domestic O&D going to LGA, domestic ops at JFK are just bleed over and outside perimeter flights. Perhaps there would be near zero domestic ops at JFK if LGA could handle all the domestic demand. Real focus I would imagine is on international O&D from NY. And if you are not looking to use JFK as a hub for these flights, then there is a finite amount of demand. It makes sense to focus international feed to hubs like CLT, PHL, ORD, DFW and leave JFK for those international markets that have enough NY demand.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
DL CDG-DTW AUG 2>1.0[2]


Why would Delta cut a flight like this in the height of the summer travel season.


That does look suspicious. Look for a refile next week, either the return of the 2nd DL op or an added AF op.

That one doesn't seem right, like an error something for August. Its not for sale on the website so its not an OAG misfile issue.

DTW-CDG in July is 2x DL (333,763) & 1x AF (789)
Aug has for sale 1x DL (763) & 1x AF (789)
Sept is back up to 2x DL (763, 763) & 1x AF (789)

They wouldn't drop a flight for just the month of August during peak-summer TATL flying. We'll see if that one comes back on a future schedule update.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:14 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Plenty of capacity. Its a short term cut during a low travel demand month. Really not a big deal or some slight against OKC.

Considering OKC-BWI has been going daily for nearly a decade now...the reduction down to thrice weekly is HUGE. And all it does is hose us out of more connection opportunities up to the Northeast.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
Well WN also flies OKC-DCA 1x daily. Just a few years ago, there were no flights on OKC-DCA....now there are two daily (1 AA and 1 WN). UA is also adding a 2nd flight on OKC-IAD in April.

WN promised OKC a DCA feed back in 2012, and it took them until AA leaked their interest in serving the route a few years ago to finally begin service.


WN can tout "oh but we gave you a n/s to BNA, and added another n/s to MDW, etc" to us OKC folks, but it's all smoke and mirrors to cover the fact they're doing significant cutbacks on the other services.
Oklahoma, as a whole, has really become the red-headed stepchild in WN's legacy route network.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:49 pm

Sightseer wrote:
Thanks Enilria!

:)
Brickell305 wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria.

You are right. Looks like DL is completely out of PAP. I don't see any flights out of JFK either. MIA seems to just be AF. Things must be going really bad out there if they can't make it work from ATL. Really interesting that even out of NYC with its large expat population, it can't support even 2 flights a day in January.


I have to think the issue is just not business traffic and that's what DL mostly cares about. It's not a redemption destination either, so they can't justify it by mollifying their elites with a place to go on vacation. It's nearly a pure ethnic market, although every time I'm in ATL the crowd in the boarding area was church groups going down for a mission. Not a high yield demo either.

sunking737 wrote:
TOM changes to MLB in 2021 or 2022

Odd to announce such a thing so far in advance. Will it really happen then?
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?

jfklganyc wrote:
You have to wonder how much longer AA can hold out in NY?

Even LGA is seeing cuts.

If I was WN or B6 I would be calling AA about an NYC asset sale.

I get these are MAX cuts, but they really should be sticking them elsewhere at this point. It'll be basically a year of not flying these slots soon. Ridiculous.
HPAEAA wrote:
Does AA still have a deal in place to protect their JFK slots?
fanoftristars wrote:

AA did a real hack job on JFK flights!

Apparently there is something of a gentlemen's agreement between the Port Authority and the airlines that allows them to not utilize their slots in these types of situations, unrelated to the runway closure. Somebody needs to file a complaint with DOT and get that struck down.

But why? If they’ve already identified NYC as the go to place to cut flights while they’re fleet constrained, why should they arbitrarily switch those cuts to another hub?

Because there are SLOTS. Slots are supposed to be the property of the people of the United States as they are a scarce resource that exist because of taxpayer infrastructure like ATC and the Aviation TRust Fund. Airlines only have grandfathering rights to slots. By not flying the slots AA loses grandfathering. The slots should revert back to "the people" for re-allocation to an airline that will use them in the public interest.
admanager wrote:
UA PAE-SFO APR 4>3[4]
Paine continues to see its service being re-balanced after now 9 months of service. Last was AS dropping one LAX to add GEG. .
What will UA do with this slot? Add another Denver or get creative with something like ORD or IAH.

Looking at LFs, everything from PAE has been surprisingly full except for PDX on AS, averaged only a 51% LF through August and SFO on UA at 63%. Best are AS to PHX at 90% and LAS at 86%. Looks like AA was dumb for not doing PHX.
tphuang wrote:
But if that's the case, then there is no reason for them to run flights to places like MGA, SAP and GUA out of ATL. All these places are VFR + missionaries. Given how much more O&D there is out of South Florida, DL is always going to be relying more on connections to make these work.

I think those have definite business traffic connecting on to WAS/NYC/CHI. PAP is such a mess I don't see there being business traffic, and less so as things get worse. DL isn't flying losing flights for religious missionary reasons, I promise that. :)
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
That one doesn't seem right, like an error something for August. Its not for sale on the website so its not an OAG misfile issue.

That trip was announced when WOW announced they were coming into the market (like 10 days later for start almost the same week). Wouldn't be surprised if that is getting unwinded.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4338
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:50 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Plenty of capacity. Its a short term cut during a low travel demand month. Really not a big deal or some slight against OKC.

Considering OKC-BWI has been going daily for nearly a decade now...the reduction down to thrice weekly is HUGE. And all it does is hose us out of more connection opportunities up to the Northeast.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
Well WN also flies OKC-DCA 1x daily. Just a few years ago, there were no flights on OKC-DCA....now there are two daily (1 AA and 1 WN). UA is also adding a 2nd flight on OKC-IAD in April.

WN promised OKC a DCA feed back in 2012, and it took them until AA leaked their interest in serving the route a few years ago to finally begin service.


WN can tout "oh but we gave you a n/s to BNA, and added another n/s to MDW, etc" to us OKC folks, but it's all smoke and mirrors to cover the fact they're doing significant cutbacks on the other services.
Oklahoma, as a whole, has really become the red-headed stepchild in WN's legacy route network.


I am an OKC person myself. This is 3 weeks of Sunday only service. After the 3 weeks it returns to daily service. They will still operate daily to DCA. This isn't a big deal.

I agree that WN has made less than desirable changes at OKC lately, however its a tough argument to say this is one of them.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 700
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:49 pm

777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.




They just started making money for the first time in a generation in NYC so why leave now?
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:07 pm

Cape Air going to BNA raises an eyebrow. Tapping into future opportunity? OWB would be far better served with a trip to ord, but that is a long haul in a 310.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:39 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Aren’t the AA cuts them now implementing the extension of the MAX grounding thru March?


Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.




They just started making money for the first time in a generation in NYC so why leave now?


They did not just start making money for the first time in a generation. Whether or not JFK as a whole was losing money before these cuts is debatable. They claimed that they are making money in JFK international for the firm time in a long time. That's because they've cut numerous money losing routes out of JFK. All of which have hurt their position in NYC and has damaged their performance out of LGA. That's exactly why they are even cutting LGA flights in these MAX cuts. The point is if they are not using those 30 slots and don't plan to add them back, then they should release them.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:34 pm

enilria wrote:
Sightseer wrote:
Thanks Enilria!

:)
Brickell305 wrote:
enilria wrote:

I have to think the issue is just not business traffic and that's what DL mostly cares about. It's not a redemption destination either, so they can't justify it by mollifying their elites with a place to go on vacation. It's nearly a pure ethnic market, although every time I'm in ATL the crowd in the boarding area was church groups going down for a mission. Not a high yield demo either.


Odd to announce such a thing so far in advance. Will it really happen then?


I get these are MAX cuts, but they really should be sticking them elsewhere at this point. It'll be basically a year of not flying these slots soon. Ridiculous.

Apparently there is something of a gentlemen's agreement between the Port Authority and the airlines that allows them to not utilize their slots in these types of situations, unrelated to the runway closure. Somebody needs to file a complaint with DOT and get that struck down.

But why? If they’ve already identified NYC as the go to place to cut flights while they’re fleet constrained, why should they arbitrarily switch those cuts to another hub?

Because there are SLOTS. Slots are supposed to be the property of the people of the United States as they are a scarce resource that exist because of taxpayer infrastructure like ATC and the Aviation TRust Fund. Airlines only have grandfathering rights to slots. By not flying the slots AA loses grandfathering. The slots should revert back to "the people" for re-allocation to an airline that will use them in the public interest.
admanager wrote:
UA PAE-SFO APR 4>3[4]
Paine continues to see its service being re-balanced after now 9 months of service. Last was AS dropping one LAX to add GEG. .
What will UA do with this slot? Add another Denver or get creative with something like ORD or IAH.

Looking at LFs, everything from PAE has been surprisingly full except for PDX on AS, averaged only a 51% LF through August and SFO on UA at 63%. Best are AS to PHX at 90% and LAS at 86%. Looks like AA was dumb for not doing PHX.
tphuang wrote:
But if that's the case, then there is no reason for them to run flights to places like MGA, SAP and GUA out of ATL. All these places are VFR + missionaries. Given how much more O&D there is out of South Florida, DL is always going to be relying more on connections to make these work.

I think those have definite business traffic connecting on to WAS/NYC/CHI. PAP is such a mess I don't see there being business traffic, and less so as things get worse. DL isn't flying losing flights for religious missionary reasons, I promise that. :)
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
That one doesn't seem right, like an error something for August. Its not for sale on the website so its not an OAG misfile issue.

That trip was announced when WOW announced they were coming into the market (like 10 days later for start almost the same week). Wouldn't be surprised if that is getting unwinded.

Shouldn’t slot management be under the purview of the entity that allocates the slots? If they have yet to push AA to use them and no other airline has filed a complaint, why wouldn’t AA continue as is?
 
adam47150
Posts: 74
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:21 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Cape Air going to BNA raises an eyebrow. Tapping into future opportunity? OWB would be far better served with a trip to ord, but that is a long haul in a 310.


Cape committed to BNA in their latest EAS bid, I believe that the other two bidders also included service to additional cities, but it appears that the airport decided to continue to dance with the one that brought them.

BNA appears to also be a new outstation for 9K. The website only shows service to OWB and MWA.
 
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usdcaguy
Posts: 1546
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:31 pm

9w748capt wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
enilria wrote:
WN BWI-OKC FEB 0.8>0.3[0.9]

:banghead: :bomb: :mad:

The screwing of OKC continues by WN.


Seriously - have UA's OKC-IAD and AA's OKC-DCA taken that much traffic away from WN? Pretty drastic cutbacks by WN lately.


WN flyers from OKC now have a lot more options via DAL than they used to. The fact that WN has a nonstop to BWI is miraculous if you compare what is on offer at TUL, which doesn’t even have a flight to MDW or any nonstops to NYC or WAS.
 
atrude777
Posts: 4424
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 11:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:20 pm

]
FlyingElvii wrote:
Cape Air going to BNA raises an eyebrow. Tapping into future opportunity? OWB would be far better served with a trip to ord, but that is a long haul in a 310.


Ya, not sure why BNA in the sen of Cape Air's Operation. BNA on it's own is a FANTASTIC connecting station, with a huge growth both city and international wise. It is an odd choice as an EAS city for Cape Air's Operation....more to reply down below...Per Cape Air, it wouldn't be served on the 310 but the new Tecnam Planes.

adam47150 wrote:
Cape committed to BNA in their latest EAS bid, I believe that the other two bidders also included service to additional cities, but it appears that the airport decided to continue to dance with the one that brought them.

BNA appears to also be a new outstation for 9K. The website only shows service to OWB and MWA.


BNA is a new station for Cape Air, and an odd choice, but other users in the STL Thread also echoed that it was to remain competitive. As you mentioned most other EAS Carriers were offering two cities or a network of service to Chicago which the majority wanted. Cape Air to remain competitive I am guessing had to offer BNA to the EAS cities that were not within flying reach to Chicago.

I'll be interested to see how OWB/MWA-BNA pay off!

I still can't book this yet on the Cape Air Website!

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:35 pm

At this point the MAX is putting major stress on AA and it's route planners. It seems very reasonable that JFK is simply an easy way to reduce some stress on the fleet. Seems totally reasonable to me. AA could totally return Summer 2020 if the MAX can actually fly for example. AA has to cut something and JFK is Ulta competitive so seems very reasonable.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:55 am

B6 is killing AA on short-haul out of JFK. I have to wonder if AA might consider leasing out slots soon. The reason why JFK gets discussed like that is because it's a Level 3 slot-restricted airport (maximum 83 movements per hour). The question now is: if AA has to eventually give up those slots, will B6 try to grab them to build up a TATL network in the vein of what CO did back in the day?
 
HPAEAA
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:11 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 is killing AA on short-haul out of JFK. I have to wonder if AA might consider leasing out slots soon. The reason why JFK gets discussed like that is because it's a Level 3 slot-restricted airport (maximum 83 movements per hour). The question now is: if AA has to eventually give up those slots, will B6 try to grab them to build up a TATL network in the vein of what CO did back in the day?

Leading out possibly, honestly I was surprised we didn’t see more of an increase in the e140 flying with the pull downs... but as far as a slot grab (if given up), does B6 have enough aircraft available to absorb another 30-40 pairs? With fights going on in BOS and the increasingly competitive FLL/MIA market I’m not sure where the planes would come from... dismantling LGB would be a start, but there’s not many other markets that they could pull from in short order without long term impacts.
1.4mm and counting...
 
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chepos
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:19 am

tphuang wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
777Mech wrote:

Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.




They just started making money for the first time in a generation in NYC so why leave now?


They did not just start making money for the first time in a generation. Whether or not JFK as a whole was losing money before these cuts is debatable. They claimed that they are making money in JFK international for the firm time in a long time. That's because they've cut numerous money losing routes out of JFK. All of which have hurt their position in NYC and has damaged their performance out of LGA. That's exactly why they are even cutting LGA flights in these MAX cuts. The point is if they are not using those 30 slots and don't plan to add them back, then they should release them.


So, you have insider knowledge that once a full schedule is in operation all those cuts at JFK will remain and those slots will go unused?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
RJNUT
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:16 am

atrude777 wrote:
]
FlyingElvii wrote:
Cape Air going to BNA raises an eyebrow. Tapping into future opportunity? OWB would be far better served with a trip to ord, but that is a long haul in a 310.


Y

adam47150 wrote:
Cape committed to BNA in their latest EAS bid, I believe that the other two bidders also included service to additional cities, but it appears that the airport decided to continue to dance with the one that brought them.


I still can't book this yet on the Cape Air Website!

Alex


I was able to book on Kayak from OWB to STL starting on Jan 22nd.
 
paulsaz
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:54 am

usdcaguy wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
:banghead: :bomb: :mad:

The screwing of OKC continues by WN.


Seriously - have UA's OKC-IAD and AA's OKC-DCA taken that much traffic away from WN? Pretty drastic cutbacks by WN lately.


WN flyers from OKC now have a lot more options via DAL than they used to. The fact that WN has a nonstop to BWI is miraculous if you compare what is on offer at TUL, which doesn’t even have a flight to MDW or any nonstops to NYC or WAS.


I thought WN was dropping the DAL-OKC flights.
All opinions are my own and do not reflect on my employer in any way.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:48 pm

chepos wrote:
tphuang wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:



They just started making money for the first time in a generation in NYC so why leave now?


They did not just start making money for the first time in a generation. Whether or not JFK as a whole was losing money before these cuts is debatable. They claimed that they are making money in JFK international for the firm time in a long time. That's because they've cut numerous money losing routes out of JFK. All of which have hurt their position in NYC and has damaged their performance out of LGA. That's exactly why they are even cutting LGA flights in these MAX cuts. The point is if they are not using those 30 slots and don't plan to add them back, then they should release them.


So, you have insider knowledge that once a full schedule is in operation all those cuts at JFK will remain and those slots will go unused?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No, but this reduced schedule has already been in place for a year. And many of these markets are hard to come back into. And their performance on existing JFK routes have been declining rapidly for 2 years. They can choose to use them on e40 and lose money. Or they can do nothing and hope nobody request for those slots. Or they can lease them out. Given their current margin situation, hard to see them willing to run a relevant schedule. Routes like san, las, RDU and aus are all huge money losers. And hard to see how these within perimeter routes can do well with the reduced international flying out of JFK.

It's hard to emphasize how much aa performance out of existing routes have declined in the past 2 years.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:31 pm

paulsaz wrote:
usdcaguy wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

Seriously - have UA's OKC-IAD and AA's OKC-DCA taken that much traffic away from WN? Pretty drastic cutbacks by WN lately.


WN flyers from OKC now have a lot more options via DAL than they used to. The fact that WN has a nonstop to BWI is miraculous if you compare what is on offer at TUL, which doesn’t even have a flight to MDW or any nonstops to NYC or WAS.


I thought WN was dropping the DAL-OKC flights.


They are...hence my teeth gnashing ;)

TUL is another story. With the AA mx base there, they've always been the big boy on the block there. Which is why they've had off/on mainline to ORD while OKC gets nothing but RJ's...they've had off/on MIA for YEARS while OKC is about to get their first n/s...they've even had scheduled 757's to DFW while OKC is a mix of mainline and RJ's. WN has barely given TUL any additions over the years as a result.

Then again, OK is one of the remaining legacy WN network states without their own theme plane...40 years since they started service here...
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:31 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
BA LHR-MIA APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]

Wow, BA continues to cut MIA into peak summer after trimming it for late fall '19 and into winter/spring '20! Looking at a random date (May 15th) there's only 3 flights on BA/AA. How can two large OW hubs see such little service? Seems OS isn't the only struggling on MIA-Europe.

Looking at the same date (May 15th) BA/AA have 5 FLIGHTS, one still an A380, between BOS-LHR and BOS isn't even a OW hub. I'm guessing BOS has definitely overtaken MIA as a larger local market to London.


Okay, so let's look at this:

Brickell305 wrote:
1. Summer isn’t peak for LHR-MIA


This isn't just summer. From the OAG thread on 10/20/19:

BA LHR-MIA DEC 3>2[3] JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3] MAR 3>2[3]

Brickell305 wrote:
2. AA is adding a second flight to replace the BA capacity. It just hasn’t been loaded yet.


So AA has added their new BOS-LHR which is due to start at the same time, but nothing has been added in MIA. Why would AA not have loaded it if it's due to start in the spring and spring schedules have been out for a while?

Brickell305 wrote:
3. AFAIK MIA-LHR is a larger local market. BOS likely sees that many flights due to connx at the LHR end and due to the fact that due to geography, O&D traffic between the two is less likely to connect via a third city. That is to say, LHR-MIA traffic has a few more logical connecting hubs (ATL, CLT, JFK, etc.) than BOS-LHR would have.


I'm still going with BOS being a larger local market now. However, if someone has the actual stats with a source I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Just look at flights on May 15th.

MIA - LON:

2x BA
1x AA
1x DY

BOS - LON:
4X BA
1X AA
2X VS
2X DL (1 LHR & 1 LGW)
1X DY

BOS will have 10 daily flights to LON while MIA will have 4.

AA already announced that they'd be adding a second 77W to MIA-LHR. It starts on Oct 27. That changed has been discussed on here before. You're late to the game.

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/U ... 562473.php

American Airlines is making some changes to its transatlantic schedules starting this weekend. AA will increase its Dallas/Ft. Worth-Madrid service from seven flights a week to 11 through January 5, and its DFW-Paris CDG schedule from seven a week to 10 through January 3. Also starting October 27, American will increase Miami-London Heathrow service from one flight a day to two and will cut Philadelphia-LHR from two a day to one.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:33 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
BA LHR-MIA APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]

Wow, BA continues to cut MIA into peak summer after trimming it for late fall '19 and into winter/spring '20! Looking at a random date (May 15th) there's only 3 flights on BA/AA. How can two large OW hubs see such little service? Seems OS isn't the only struggling on MIA-Europe.

Looking at the same date (May 15th) BA/AA have 5 FLIGHTS, one still an A380, between BOS-LHR and BOS isn't even a OW hub. I'm guessing BOS has definitely overtaken MIA as a larger local market to London.


Okay, so let's look at this:

Brickell305 wrote:
1. Summer isn’t peak for LHR-MIA


This isn't just summer. From the OAG thread on 10/20/19:

BA LHR-MIA DEC 3>2[3] JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3] MAR 3>2[3]

Brickell305 wrote:
2. AA is adding a second flight to replace the BA capacity. It just hasn’t been loaded yet.


So AA has added their new BOS-LHR which is due to start at the same time, but nothing has been added in MIA. Why would AA not have loaded it if it's due to start in the spring and spring schedules have been out for a while?

Brickell305 wrote:
3. AFAIK MIA-LHR is a larger local market. BOS likely sees that many flights due to connx at the LHR end and due to the fact that due to geography, O&D traffic between the two is less likely to connect via a third city. That is to say, LHR-MIA traffic has a few more logical connecting hubs (ATL, CLT, JFK, etc.) than BOS-LHR would have.


I'm still going with BOS being a larger local market now. However, if someone has the actual stats with a source I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Just look at flights on May 15th.

MIA - LON:

2x BA
1x AA
1x DY

BOS - LON:
4X BA
1X AA
2X VS
2X DL (1 LHR & 1 LGW)
1X DY

BOS will have 10 daily flights to LON while MIA will have 4.

AA already announced that they'd be adding a second 77W to MIA-LHR. It starts on Oct 27. That changed has been discussed on here before. You're late to the game.

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/U ... 562473.php

American Airlines is making some changes to its transatlantic schedules starting this weekend. AA will increase its Dallas/Ft. Worth-Madrid service from seven flights a week to 11 through January 5, and its DFW-Paris CDG schedule from seven a week to 10 through January 3. Also starting October 27, American will increase Miami-London Heathrow service from one flight a day to two and will cut Philadelphia-LHR from two a day to one.

That should be started, not starts.
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 430
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Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:01 pm

atrude777 wrote:
]
FlyingElvii wrote:
Cape Air going to BNA raises an eyebrow. Tapping into future opportunity? OWB would be far better served with a trip to ord, but that is a long haul in a 310.


Ya, not sure why BNA in the sen of Cape Air's Operation. BNA on it's own is a FANTASTIC connecting station, with a huge growth both city and international wise. It is an odd choice as an EAS city for Cape Air's Operation....more to reply down below...Per Cape Air, it wouldn't be served on the 310 but the new Tecnam Planes.

adam47150 wrote:
Cape committed to BNA in their latest EAS bid, I believe that the other two bidders also included service to additional cities, but it appears that the airport decided to continue to dance with the one that brought them.

BNA appears to also be a new outstation for 9K. The website only shows service to OWB and MWA.


BNA is a new station for Cape Air, and an odd choice, but other users in the STL Thread also echoed that it was to remain competitive. As you mentioned most other EAS Carriers were offering two cities or a network of service to Chicago which the majority wanted. Cape Air to remain competitive I am guessing had to offer BNA to the EAS cities that were not within flying reach to Chicago.

I'll be interested to see how OWB/MWA-BNA pay off!

I still can't book this yet on the Cape Air Website!

Alex

Well seeing as Cape Air has zero 310s, probably won't be on one. ;)
402s and a CHI-OWB would hardly be long for a 402. Nice to see some of these EAS bids starting to offer more than just the one destination.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
FilAmAirlines
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 8:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:40 pm

enilria wrote:
UA FNT-ORD APR 3>1.0[4]

I feel conflicted about this. As an MBS person, FNT downgauges, reductions and eliminations are great news.
I am skeptical about this reduction by UA. I looked on UA's website, and the April 2020 flights still show 3-4 flights a day. I worry the FNT-ORD reduction is an error; even for that month. It's wishful thinking that will lead to UA leaving FNT.
I don't always fly, but when I do, it's on the friendly skies of United or Delta's care that gets me there.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 700
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
777Mech wrote:

Before it was runway construction, now the AA folks are going to say it's the MAX, but AA is just weak in JFK. Just leave already.




They just started making money for the first time in a generation in NYC so why leave now?


They did not just start making money for the first time in a generation. Whether or not JFK as a whole was losing money before these cuts is debatable. They claimed that they are making money in JFK international for the firm time in a long time. That's because they've cut numerous money losing routes out of JFK. All of which have hurt their position in NYC and has damaged their performance out of LGA. That's exactly why they are even cutting LGA flights in these MAX cuts. The point is if they are not using those 30 slots and don't plan to add them back, then they should release them.


The MD of route planning just said in the most recent crew news every NYC slot will be used once the MAX grounding is lifted.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 700
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 11/17/2019:4O Adds CUN-MIA,LAX-MTY;AA Cuts JFK Again;DL Exits PAP;UA Exits ELM, LAX-PSC

Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:23 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
At this point the MAX is putting major stress on AA and it's route planners. It seems very reasonable that JFK is simply an easy way to reduce some stress on the fleet. Seems totally reasonable to me. AA could totally return Summer 2020 if the MAX can actually fly for example. AA has to cut something and JFK is Ulta competitive so seems very reasonable.


Exactly.........Its just common sense. Cut where the least pain is financially and were the easiest re-accommodations are.
You can still connect every NYer to any city they have temporarily cut with a one stop flight.

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