upintheair2019
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Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:49 pm

F-HPJB came to Malta to be painted all white at Aviation Cosmetics Malta, then returned to lessor (Dr. Peters Group).

Arrival video: http://www.facebook.com/aircraftspottin ... 016759850/
Last edited by atcsundevil on Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
TheWorm123
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:15 pm

I’m gonna guess it’s next trip will be one way
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upintheair2019
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:31 pm

 
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robby31
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:49 pm

Amazing ! Still actively in service over the last few days (last trip yesterday from Johannesburg). Did not expect those AF bird retirement so early; A380 loads and yields must be really disapointing at AF. I guess new 787 / A350 will increasingly replace the disapearing A380 current capacity,but those are also supposed to replace A340's. Still, does that mean that AF long range capacity will decrease significantly over the next few years ?
 
dcajet
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AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:19 pm

F-HPJB (a 2010 frame) flew to Malta earlier today for onward return to the lessor, Dr Peters Group.

https://twitter.com/AirportWebcams/stat ... 5228843012
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Revelation
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:41 pm

I guess we shall see if a relatively new bird gets taken up, or if all the threads saying the SQ birds were not taken up because of the old wiring were bunk.

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PBerry
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:43 pm

Huh. To think I flew with JB just last year on CDG-JFK. It shall be interesting to see if her fate pans out similar to that of her SQ-predecessors or if she'll find use elsewhere.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:45 pm

dcajet wrote:
F-HPJB (a 2010 frame) flew to Malta earlier today for onward return to the lessor, Dr Peters Group.

https://twitter.com/AirportWebcams/stat ... 5228843012

Oh wow!!! I just flew on this aircraft 3 days ago on Nov. 20th from CDG to LAX.
Had no idea it was being retired so soon. Glad I was able to get on it.
 
speedbird52
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:46 pm

I really want to see a video of A380 scrapping. Imagine the process breaking up such a big aircraft will be!
 
dcajet
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:22 pm

PBerry wrote:
Huh. To think I flew with JB just last year on CDG-JFK. It shall be interesting to see if her fate pans out similar to that of her SQ-predecessors or if she'll find use elsewhere.


In fact, it flew AF995 JNB-CDG last night, arriving in Paris this AM. Then off to Malta later in the AM. No rest for the wicked...
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
smartplane
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:07 pm

The fact this aircraft has flown to Malta, either for tax, and / or ownership change, and / or re-paint, suggests a life other than parts is possible, unless just for decal removal. Or the early lease termination isn't amicable, and the lessee is re-painting instead of agreeing a cash sum in lieu, as part of the EOL payment. If scrapping, usually the lessor and lessee agree a cash sum, lower than the cost of a re-paint.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:10 pm

It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.
 
PBerry
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:23 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


To be fair, a relatively young age hasn't saved other airliners from the scrapper (looking at F9's 318s, for instance). BA seems to be the only somewhat reasonable (do AF's 380s come with Rollers?) candidate. HiFly might be interested, but I'm not holding my breath. All the others... well, as much as I'd love to see the whale in VS's livery, none of them seems particularly likely.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
I guess we shall see if a relatively new bird gets taken up, or if all the threads saying the SQ birds were not taken up because of the old wiring were bunk.

This is LN 040, 26th to fly, 29th delivered.

This is a test of the A380 aftermarket. Alas, little hope. This example must have been marketed ever since AF announced.

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aemoreira1981
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:58 pm

Basically Hi Fly under a good power by the hour lease or no one. The market has evolved toward the 300-seat class as most ideal.
 
sunking737
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:06 am

IIRC it was going for a repaint only
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dtw2hyd
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:23 am

Will this be the first "never been washed" A380 to enter secondary market.

Sorry, my bad, but couldn't resist.
 
strfyr51
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at the A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:42 am

It seems the A380 was a little too big for what they built it for. there's just TOO much frequency for it's viability. though? with some modifications?
It might well be a dynamite freight hauler because it could be configured to be loaded from both the upper Deck and the lower deck simultaneously though with cargo doors on Both sides of the airplane with a cargo door in the aft fuselage for the upper deck and a forward cargo door for the lower deck as where the cockpit is located precludes outsized freight to be loaded like the 747-8F Better than that? It could be jointly operated by 2-3 companies at the same time with one having space on the upper deck and one having space on the lower deck with a third company having the lower cargo holds. Though I would suspect someone has already come up with this Idea.. I couldn't have been the first to think about it...
 
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flee
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:00 am

PBerry wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.

To be fair, a relatively young age hasn't saved other airliners from the scrapper (looking at F9's 318s, for instance). BA seems to be the only somewhat reasonable (do AF's 380s come with Rollers?) candidate. HiFly might be interested, but I'm not holding my breath. All the others... well, as much as I'd love to see the whale in VS's livery, none of them seems particularly likely.

AF A380s come with the Engine Alliance GP7270 engines. I doubt that it will go to other EA operators - so if it gets a second life, it would probably be with a new operator - maybe a cruise liner operator might want to use it for a luxury fly-cruise operation?
 
foxtrotbravo21
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:12 am

Do not think there is anyor much secondary used market for A380s even if they are relatvely new at just below 10 years. Thre are other airlines which have been trying to get rid of their youger A380s to no avail.. Malaysian Airlines have 6 of such 7 year olds to be sold but so far there are no takers and MH only uses these planes sparingly on charters. Thai also have wanted to sell theirs but to no buyers.
 
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alancostello
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:10 am

foxtrotbravo21 wrote:
Do not think there is anyor much secondary used market for A380s even if they are relatvely new at just below 10 years. Thre are other airlines which have been trying to get rid of their youger A380s to no avail.. Malaysian Airlines have 6 of such 7 year olds to be sold but so far there are no takers and MH only uses these planes sparingly on charters. Thai also have wanted to sell theirs but to no buyers.


As far as I can remember BA kicked the tyres on the MH birds and weren’t particularly with them maintenance and condition wise, particularly for their age. A plane can be a year old and be undesirable if it hasn’t been taken care of properly.
 
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flee
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:13 am

alancostello wrote:
foxtrotbravo21 wrote:
Do not think there is anyor much secondary used market for A380s even if they are relatvely new at just below 10 years. Thre are other airlines which have been trying to get rid of their youger A380s to no avail.. Malaysian Airlines have 6 of such 7 year olds to be sold but so far there are no takers and MH only uses these planes sparingly on charters. Thai also have wanted to sell theirs but to no buyers.

As far as I can remember BA kicked the tyres on the MH birds and weren’t particularly with them maintenance and condition wise, particularly for their age. A plane can be a year old and be undesirable if it hasn’t been taken care of properly.

What is your source of that information? Former MH CEO, Peter Bellew, said that those aircraft are as good as new - he said that after the aircraft underwent their first heavy checks.

AFAIK, MH is not about to run a fire sale for these aircraft. BA also does not like the cabin refurbishment costs - apparently, it can cost up to USD 50m to bring the cabin to BA specs.
 
KFTG
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:21 am

To think they even considered the -900 model. Thank God they didn't build it.
 
marcelh
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:25 am

KFTG wrote:
To think they even considered the -900 model. Thank God they didn't build it.

They didn’t consider it, it was the original plan. That’s why the 800 is overwinged and heavier than necessary
 
uta999
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:32 am

Basically, AB built the 747-SP version before the 747-100. Never a good idea.
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:17 pm

smartplane wrote:
The fact this aircraft has flown to Malta, either for tax, and / or ownership change, and / or re-paint, suggests a life other than parts is possible, unless just for decal removal. Or the early lease termination isn't amicable, and the lessee is re-painting instead of agreeing a cash sum in lieu, as part of the EOL payment. If scrapping, usually the lessor and lessee agree a cash sum, lower than the cost of a re-paint.

Yet we see the first two SQ A380s meeting their fate in all-white paint, so the usual pattern is not applying.

Image
Ref: https://www.aero.de/news-33227/Erster-A ... rlegt.html

uta999 wrote:
Basically, AB built the 747-SP version before the 747-100. Never a good idea.

The market is showing it cannot often support moving ~525 passengers on a given city pair at the same time.

Making the bigger/heavier/costlier version first would have made this more apparent sooner.

https://www.icas.org/media/pdf/ICAS%20C ... ampion.pdf shows that Airbus considered pretty much every cross section.

Pg 3 shows they had narrowed it down to 8+6, 10+6 or 10+8 Y seat cross section, but their core market target was defined as 550-650 so they favored 10+8 which could be extended out all the way to 800 seats.

Pg 4 shows they disfavored the 8+6 concept because it got too long when you went for 650 seats.

Seems everyone involved saw 550 as a bare minimum passenger capacity, but in retrospect we see the market could not support that many seats often enough for the aircraft to be viable.

The 8+6 concept gets rid of the 2nd aisle upstairs so saves a lot of unused space and thus extra weight.

Smaller cross section and lower weight might have meant lower thrust engines which also saves weight.

With 14x seating and full length upper deck it would have been a good capacity bump above 340, 744 and 773.

I guess we'll never know what would have happened had they been less eager to provide the biggest feasible VLA.

Personally I think they let ego get out ahead of practicality.
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TC957
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:31 pm

Surely if it was going for scrapping then AF would have taken the interior out and officially decommissioned the bird first - unless they did that in just 4 hours or so !
I think it just gone for a repaint as others have said - or a proper wash !
 
OB1504
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Re: at the A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:36 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
It seems the A380 was a little too big for what they built it for. there's just TOO much frequency for it's viability. though? with some modifications?
It might well be a dynamite freight hauler because it could be configured to be loaded from both the upper Deck and the lower deck simultaneously though with cargo doors on Both sides of the airplane with a cargo door in the aft fuselage for the upper deck and a forward cargo door for the lower deck as where the cockpit is located precludes outsized freight to be loaded like the 747-8F Better than that? It could be jointly operated by 2-3 companies at the same time with one having space on the upper deck and one having space on the lower deck with a third company having the lower cargo holds. Though I would suspect someone has already come up with this Idea.. I couldn't have been the first to think about it...


The problem with this is reinforcing the upper deck to accommodate cargo, and any airport the airplane flies to would need special loaders that could reach the upper deck. Any kind of ad hoc flying with such a freighter would essentially be limited to only the lower deck. The A380 can only be accommodated by a handful of airports which would also limit such a freighter’s attractiveness. I would venture that cargo demand on city pairs where an A380 would fit are currently well served by existing belly space on other widebodies.
 
mxaxai
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:25 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems everyone involved saw 550 as a bare minimum passenger capacity, but in retrospect we see the market could not support that many seats often enough for the aircraft to be viable.

Your slides show that Airbus had repeated talks with dozens of potential customers for several years, including UA, IB, CX, KL and other airlines that eventually didn't order the aircraft. Notice how they talked to JAL every year, despite JAL not taking delivery of an Airbus jet until 2019. Perhaps Airbus didn't listen, or perhaps some airlines wanted to mislead Airbus, but I think that many airlines back then couldn't have imagined how the market will develop.

In the same way, I understand why Boeing is cautious with the NMA even though they've been discussing it with airlines for a few years now (with generally positive feedback AFAIK).
 
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Revelation
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:02 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seems everyone involved saw 550 as a bare minimum passenger capacity, but in retrospect we see the market could not support that many seats often enough for the aircraft to be viable.

Your slides show that Airbus had repeated talks with dozens of potential customers for several years, including UA, IB, CX, KL and other airlines that eventually didn't order the aircraft. Notice how they talked to JAL every year, despite JAL not taking delivery of an Airbus jet until 2019. Perhaps Airbus didn't listen, or perhaps some airlines wanted to mislead Airbus, but I think that many airlines back then couldn't have imagined how the market will develop.

In the same way, I understand why Boeing is cautious with the NMA even though they've been discussing it with airlines for a few years now (with generally positive feedback AFAIK).

The thing the slides never explain is why they came up with the 550-650 core passenger per plane goal.

The slide marked pg 17 (actually pg 9) is almost spot on, https://www.iata.org/publications/econo ... c-2018.pdf suggests we are at 8.4 trillion RPK per year at end 2018.

The thing that is wrong is that most of the gain in RPK has been not been via VLAs.

The next slide indicates their deep concern about airport capacity crunch, now largely mitigated via hub bypass.

Maybe they listened to the big airport operators too much, and didn't consider hub bypass or fragmentation enough?

The next slide suggests consolidation would build up the hubs but that effect hasn't been as dominant as the slides would suggest.

BA for instance gobbled up BMI but that didn't lead them to abandon LGW and consolidate at LHR, both still have roles in their network.

Same is true with LH gobbling up Air Berlin assets: LH just grew their footprint to include more BER flights, they didn't force everyone through FRA.

That same slide suggests A330/A340 would address the fragmentation effect, and they did to a degree, along with A320/A321 which is not listed.

The rest of the slides are pretty sad to take in given we know A380 production is winding down.

A lot of work will be rendered moot and a lot of resources will need to be re-purposed or abandoned.

It's interesting to see that the last few pages show that some parts for the freighter were already built and 30% of the drawings released.
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smartplane
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The fact this aircraft has flown to Malta, either for tax, and / or ownership change, and / or re-paint, suggests a life other than parts is possible, unless just for decal removal. Or the early lease termination isn't amicable, and the lessee is re-painting instead of agreeing a cash sum in lieu, as part of the EOL payment. If scrapping, usually the lessor and lessee agree a cash sum, lower than the cost of a re-paint.

Yet we see the first two SQ A380s meeting their fate in all-white paint, so the usual pattern is not applying.

Which suggests End of Lease payment negotiations were not entirely amicable, unless Airbus is the ultimate owner and the party lacking flexibility. Usual behaviour would be to just remove decals, and split (not necessarily 50:50) the cost of a re-paint between lessor and lessee. A re-paint is small change compared to other EOL costs, so you have to wonder how those other costs have been negotiated. Or will the air frame find a new home - they seem to be taking quite good care of it. New Airbnb accommodation?
 
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DL747400
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:08 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


Neither DELTA nor VS will ever operate the A380. Folks need to let go of that particular fantasy. Not going to happen.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:14 pm

DL747400 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


Neither DELTA nor VS will ever operate the A380. Folks need to let go of that particular fantasy. Not going to happen.


Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.
In addition, Virgin Connect is coming online soon to provide feed
Moreover, isn't it a waste to fly high capital cost A350 on a route that has low daily utlisation?
If the A380 is cheap enough to purchase, why wouldn't DL bite?

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.
 
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Revelation
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:22 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


Neither DELTA nor VS will ever operate the A380. Folks need to let go of that particular fantasy. Not going to happen.


Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.
In addition, Virgin Connect is coming online soon to provide feed
Moreover, isn't it a waste to fly high capital cost A350 on a route that has low daily utlisation?
If the A380 is cheap enough to purchase, why wouldn't DL bite?

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.

Because math?

If they wanted a low capital cost people bomber there are many 77Ws coming off lease soon which offer similar economics and can easily be incorporated into the fleet since DL is already a 77E/77L operator.

Taking A380 would be a new type on the certificate, a new training regime, new sims, new pilot and crew contracts, new spares, all to join the A380 club just as the production line is shutting down thus driving up maintenance costs.

If you add A380 you better be damn confident you can fill 150 or so extra seats every day without diluting yields.

Remember in general that each of the 150 extra seats you sell will be sold cheaper than all the other seats you sell before them, so it's not a great bonus to add seats.

Yield management is relentless, A380 is not cutting the mustard in the current environment, capacity discipline is what rules the day.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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stylo777
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:41 pm

Last year in February an Air France A380 appeared at Aviation Cosmetics Malta for the first time. Looking at the pictures, it is the same hangar.
What still struggles me the most is the fact that they didn't remove any interior and other useful materials.
They either got the painting-spot on short notice and need to do that stuff afterwards or it's something else.
Is it actually confirmed that the bird returns to Dr. Peters Group?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
DL747400 wrote:

Neither DELTA nor VS will ever operate the A380. Folks need to let go of that particular fantasy. Not going to happen.


Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.
In addition, Virgin Connect is coming online soon to provide feed
Moreover, isn't it a waste to fly high capital cost A350 on a route that has low daily utlisation?
If the A380 is cheap enough to purchase, why wouldn't DL bite?

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.

Because math?

If they wanted a low capital cost people bomber there are many 77Ws coming off lease soon which offer similar economics and can easily be incorporated into the fleet since DL is already a 77E/77L operator.

Taking A380 would be a new type on the certificate, a new training regime, new sims, new pilot and crew contracts, new spares, all to join the A380 club just as the production line is shutting down thus driving up maintenance costs.

If you add A380 you better be damn confident you can fill 150 or so extra seats every day without diluting yields.

Remember in general that each of the 150 extra seats you sell will be sold cheaper than all the other seats you sell before them, so it's not a great bonus to add seats.

Yield management is relentless, A380 is not cutting the mustard in the current environment, capacity discipline is what rules the day.



The notions of yield management that you present here are flawed though.

The NYC-LON market is a a very broad market with dozens of daily widebody flights.
Let's suppose that the daily market offer is 20 daily widebody flights each way, good for 6000 seats each way.
Each additional A380 would only add 150-250 seats for each flight where it will replace a B777/A350 or B787, so even if they replace VS's 4 daily A350's with A380's, it will barely cause a blip in yields.
In addition, given DL/VS can offer a superior product than their counterparts with an A380, they can secure higher yields and competitors will be stuck with the lower yields.
Also, demand and offer have a way of adjusting themselves, so an A380 flight can force a competitor to downgrade their flights to smaller equipment.

In short, while putting an A380 in a competitive market instead fo a smller aircraft can depress yields somewhat in the short term, the demand will adjust itself to the offer, long-term, the demand will adjust itself to the offer and the weaker competitors will be forced to downgrade or abandon their flights.

This is non-sense drivel spread by the lessors.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
incitatus
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:10 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.
In addition, Virgin Connect is coming online soon to provide feed
Moreover, isn't it a waste to fly high capital cost A350 on a route that has low daily utlisation?
If the A380 is cheap enough to purchase, why wouldn't DL bite?

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.


Part of the "flagship service" in NY-London is frequency. By moving to A380s, DL/VS would thin out their presence along the day against BA/AA and UA. I am positive VS could use an A380 leaving JFK at 6 pm, but then how about the rest of the schedule? Getting just 3 or 4 A380s is not good economics.
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jetblueguy22
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:17 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.
In addition, Virgin Connect is coming online soon to provide feed
Moreover, isn't it a waste to fly high capital cost A350 on a route that has low daily utlisation?
If the A380 is cheap enough to purchase, why wouldn't DL bite?

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.

Because math?

If they wanted a low capital cost people bomber there are many 77Ws coming off lease soon which offer similar economics and can easily be incorporated into the fleet since DL is already a 77E/77L operator.

Taking A380 would be a new type on the certificate, a new training regime, new sims, new pilot and crew contracts, new spares, all to join the A380 club just as the production line is shutting down thus driving up maintenance costs.

If you add A380 you better be damn confident you can fill 150 or so extra seats every day without diluting yields.

Remember in general that each of the 150 extra seats you sell will be sold cheaper than all the other seats you sell before them, so it's not a great bonus to add seats.

Yield management is relentless, A380 is not cutting the mustard in the current environment, capacity discipline is what rules the day.



The notions of yield management that you present here are flawed though.

The NYC-LON market is a a very broad market with dozens of daily widebody flights.
Let's suppose that the daily market offer is 20 daily widebody flights each way, good for 6000 seats each way.
Each additional A380 would only add 150-250 seats for each flight where it will replace a B777/A350 or B787, so even if they replace VS's 4 daily A350's with A380's, it will barely cause a blip in yields.
In addition, given DL/VS can offer a superior product than their counterparts with an A380, they can secure higher yields and competitors will be stuck with the lower yields.
Also, demand and offer have a way of adjusting themselves, so an A380 flight can force a competitor to downgrade their flights to smaller equipment.

This is non-sense drivel spread by the lessors.

If the A380 was such a wonder plane on JFK-LHR VS would have actually taken delivery of them...but they chose to convert them.

DL is the best in the business when it comes to yield management, they aren't going to dilute them with hundreds of more seats. Any product they would put on an A380 can be put on the A330, A350, or 767 without the mind boggling capital costs involved with the A380.

The DL buy an old airframe and fly it until the wings fall off is rooted in fact, but they do it with airframes like the 717 that they can sit and not have to worry about crazy payments on. It doesn't work on an airframe the size of the A380 that would be used on essentially one route.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
TSA125
Posts: 115
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:20 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Will this be the first "never been washed" A380 to enter secondary market.

Sorry, my bad, but couldn't resist.


I do suppose most AF birds are afraid of the water :rotfl:
No not that TSA.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 23031
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:34 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Let's suppose that the daily market offer is 20 daily widebody flights each way, good for 6000 seats each way.
Each additional A380 would only add 150-250 seats for each flight where it will replace a B777/A350 or B787, so even if they replace VS's 4 daily A350's with A380's, it will barely cause a blip in yields.
In addition, given DL/VS can offer a superior product than their counterparts with an A380, they can secure higher yields and competitors will be stuck with the lower yields.
Also, demand and offer have a way of adjusting themselves, so an A380 flight can force a competitor to downgrade their flights to smaller equipment.

In short, while putting an A380 in a competitive market instead fo a smller aircraft can depress yields somewhat in the short term, the demand will adjust itself to the offer, long-term, the demand will adjust itself to the offer and the weaker competitors will be forced to downgrade or abandon their flights.

This is non-sense drivel spread by the lessors.

There is a lot of variables you aren't calculating.

"they replace VS's 4 daily A350's with A380's" => You've just added a new fleet type to VS's small operation that can basically only hope to make money on NYC-LHR, if that. The new fleet type is actually an old fleet type whose production line is shutting soon. Each aircraft has four engines to maintain, any one of the four has a fault and you strand 500+ people. Overall economics per flight need detailed math but A350's TXWBs are two generations newer than A380's T900s. As you admit, adding seats is diluting yields, those extra 150 seats don't bring in the same revenue per seat as the first 300 did.

Countless airlines have tried the "let's take out the competition by flooding the market with more seats" and I think we can say it rarely works. Now do that with a less economical aircraft with heavy start up and per trip costs and I think it's clear the numbers don't work.

Bottom line though is we don't need to do the math since VS did, they chose to take 787s and A350s and not take A380s.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 12:31 am

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Let's suppose that the daily market offer is 20 daily widebody flights each way, good for 6000 seats each way.
Each additional A380 would only add 150-250 seats for each flight where it will replace a B777/A350 or B787, so even if they replace VS's 4 daily A350's with A380's, it will barely cause a blip in yields.
In addition, given DL/VS can offer a superior product than their counterparts with an A380, they can secure higher yields and competitors will be stuck with the lower yields.
Also, demand and offer have a way of adjusting themselves, so an A380 flight can force a competitor to downgrade their flights to smaller equipment.

In short, while putting an A380 in a competitive market instead fo a smller aircraft can depress yields somewhat in the short term, the demand will adjust itself to the offer, long-term, the demand will adjust itself to the offer and the weaker competitors will be forced to downgrade or abandon their flights.

This is non-sense drivel spread by the lessors.

There is a lot of variables you aren't calculating.

"they replace VS's 4 daily A350's with A380's" => You've just added a new fleet type to VS's small operation that can basically only hope to make money on NYC-LHR, if that. The new fleet type is actually an old fleet type whose production line is shutting soon. Each aircraft has four engines to maintain, any one of the four has a fault and you strand 500+ people. Overall economics per flight need detailed math but A350's TXWBs are two generations newer than A380's T900s. As you admit, adding seats is diluting yields, those extra 150 seats don't bring in the same revenue per seat as the first 300 did.

Countless airlines have tried the "let's take out the competition by flooding the market with more seats" and I think we can say it rarely works. Now do that with a less economical aircraft with heavy start up and per trip costs and I think it's clear the numbers don't work.

Bottom line though is we don't need to do the math since VS did, they chose to take 787s and A350s and not take A380s.


The A380 EIS'ed 4 years ahead of the B787 and barely 8 years ahead of the A350.
In comparison, DL operates B764ER's that EIS'ed in 2000 and even much older types.
So it's not an old fleet type.

The A380 has 4 engines, but all the rest is equal in numbers to a A350. There is much much more that can go wrong than just the engines, but so far the A380's engines have proven much more reliable than engines on the B787, so hardly an argument.

The A350's Trent XWB is not even a full generation ahead of the RR Trent 900. BPR 9.6 OPR 50 vs BPR 8.6 OPR 38.

The B77W is almost almost at the end of its production run, so everyone should dump them too perhaps?

If we may believe that airlines are going to return A380's in mass, and that they're all going to end up in the scrapyard very young with plenty of life left in their parts, there should be plenty of spare parts to last decades.

jetblueguy22 wrote:
DL is the best in the business when it comes to yield management, they aren't going to dilute them with hundreds of more seats. Any product they would put on an A380 can be put on the A330, A350, or 767 without the mind boggling capital costs involved with the A380.


First of all, an A380 coming off a 10 year lease at AF would already be paid off for the lessor.
So any cash that they can get going forward is pure profit.

Second, an A380 even after a full refurbishment will have lower capital costs than a new A339 or A350.
So your argument doesn't stack up against reality.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:25 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.


DL cares about premium revenues, not about how full premium cabins are. Even with all tightening to SkyMiles only 50% of premium cabins are filled with paid passengers. 50% are loyalty related.

Only 40% of Delta's revenues are from premium, 60% from the economy. Which one do you think is better from a business perspective, getting 60% without doing much (or) 40% with all the expenditure and attention.

No other airline discusses this topic.
 
airzona11
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:30 am

Revelation wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The fact this aircraft has flown to Malta, either for tax, and / or ownership change, and / or re-paint, suggests a life other than parts is possible, unless just for decal removal. Or the early lease termination isn't amicable, and the lessee is re-painting instead of agreeing a cash sum in lieu, as part of the EOL payment. If scrapping, usually the lessor and lessee agree a cash sum, lower than the cost of a re-paint.

Yet we see the first two SQ A380s meeting their fate in all-white paint, so the usual pattern is not applying.

Image
Ref: https://www.aero.de/news-33227/Erster-A ... rlegt.html

uta999 wrote:
Basically, AB built the 747-SP version before the 747-100. Never a good idea.

The market is showing it cannot often support moving ~525 passengers on a given city pair at the same time.

Making the bigger/heavier/costlier version first would have made this more apparent sooner.

https://www.icas.org/media/pdf/ICAS%20C ... ampion.pdf shows that Airbus considered pretty much every cross section.

Pg 3 shows they had narrowed it down to 8+6, 10+6 or 10+8 Y seat cross section, but their core market target was defined as 550-650 so they favored 10+8 which could be extended out all the way to 800 seats.

Pg 4 shows they disfavored the 8+6 concept because it got too long when you went for 650 seats.

Seems everyone involved saw 550 as a bare minimum passenger capacity, but in retrospect we see the market could not support that many seats often enough for the aircraft to be viable.

The 8+6 concept gets rid of the 2nd aisle upstairs so saves a lot of unused space and thus extra weight.

Smaller cross section and lower weight might have meant lower thrust engines which also saves weight.

With 14x seating and full length upper deck it would have been a good capacity bump above 340, 744 and 773.

I guess we'll never know what would have happened had they been less eager to provide the biggest feasible VLA.

Personally I think they let ego get out ahead of practicality.


Such an interesting read, thank you for sharing!
 
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hongkongflyer
Posts: 778
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:45 am

smartplane wrote:
The fact this aircraft has flown to Malta, either for tax, and / or ownership change, and / or re-paint, suggests a life other than parts is possible, unless just for decal removal. Or the early lease termination isn't amicable, and the lessee is re-painting instead of agreeing a cash sum in lieu, as part of the EOL payment. If scrapping, usually the lessor and lessee agree a cash sum, lower than the cost of a re-paint.


You won't want your livery shows on a plane being parts out, especially for this high profile 380. Given AF's livery is very simple, the re-paint don't cost them much to do so.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:29 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.
In addition, Virgin Connect is coming online soon to provide feed
Moreover, isn't it a waste to fly high capital cost A350 on a route that has low daily utlisation?
If the A380 is cheap enough to purchase, why wouldn't DL bite?

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.

Because math?

If they wanted a low capital cost people bomber there are many 77Ws coming off lease soon which offer similar economics and can easily be incorporated into the fleet since DL is already a 77E/77L operator.

Taking A380 would be a new type on the certificate, a new training regime, new sims, new pilot and crew contracts, new spares, all to join the A380 club just as the production line is shutting down thus driving up maintenance costs.

If you add A380 you better be damn confident you can fill 150 or so extra seats every day without diluting yields.

Remember in general that each of the 150 extra seats you sell will be sold cheaper than all the other seats you sell before them, so it's not a great bonus to add seats.

Yield management is relentless, A380 is not cutting the mustard in the current environment, capacity discipline is what rules the day.



The notions of yield management that you present here are flawed though. This is non-sense drivel spread by the lessors.


Delta's yield management is pretty spot on - they dropped NW's 747's as it made sense, haven't ordered the A380 and indicated it does not work for them. Remember, their main hub is ATL, a city of <1M, it does a lot thru LA, but their other hubs are not in huge metro areas - SEA 2.5M, Salt Lake <1M, MSP 3.2M, DTW <1M. There are 30 cities in North America with DL flights to Europe, so lots of Point to Point. There are 20 asia cities, but except for NRT (soon to HND) the spokes don't usually have connections beyond. Latin America is a lot of NB / 767 types of routes.

If the 380 had even to better economics to its competition there would have been lots of orders in the 2011-2016 time, but almost no orders in that period except EK and BA. Airlines did not expand their fleets, if it was wonderful they would have, like they did with the 77W.

I expect DL to pick up a number of 77W's, a number of their routes could do well with belly cargo. Once the lease / buy costs are sweet on the secondary market.
 
FatCat
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:36 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Will this be the first "never been washed" A380 to enter secondary market.

Sorry, my bad, but couldn't resist.

someone said AF officials they have to wash it, but hell no, they preferred to retire the plane :white:
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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1027
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:41 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Because math?

If they wanted a low capital cost people bomber there are many 77Ws coming off lease soon which offer similar economics and can easily be incorporated into the fleet since DL is already a 77E/77L operator.

Taking A380 would be a new type on the certificate, a new training regime, new sims, new pilot and crew contracts, new spares, all to join the A380 club just as the production line is shutting down thus driving up maintenance costs.

If you add A380 you better be damn confident you can fill 150 or so extra seats every day without diluting yields.

Remember in general that each of the 150 extra seats you sell will be sold cheaper than all the other seats you sell before them, so it's not a great bonus to add seats.

Yield management is relentless, A380 is not cutting the mustard in the current environment, capacity discipline is what rules the day.



The notions of yield management that you present here are flawed though. This is non-sense drivel spread by the lessors.


Delta's yield management is pretty spot on - they dropped NW's 747's as it made sense, haven't ordered the A380 and indicated it does not work for them. Remember, their main hub is ATL, a city of <1M, it does a lot thru LA, but their other hubs are not in huge metro areas - SEA 2.5M, Salt Lake <1M, MSP 3.2M, DTW <1M. There are 30 cities in North America with DL flights to Europe, so lots of Point to Point. There are 20 asia cities, but except for NRT (soon to HND) the spokes don't usually have connections beyond. Latin America is a lot of NB / 767 types of routes.

If the 380 had even to better economics to its competition there would have been lots of orders in the 2011-2016 time, but almost no orders in that period except EK and BA. Airlines did not expand their fleets, if it was wonderful they would have, like they did with the 77W.

I expect DL to pick up a number of 77W's, a number of their routes could do well with belly cargo. Once the lease / buy costs are sweet on the secondary market.


I don't think that decent B77W's will get sweet until they are obsolete.

The A380 has much better economics than the B77W.
Brand new A350's or B77W's are not suitable for short routes like JFK-LHR due to low utilisation and long taxiing times, sometimes in excess of 1 hour.

But at the end of the day, the decisive factor are the limited amounts of slots.

If I were DL, I would run A380's as follows: 4-5 daily JFK-LHR, 1 daily JFK-MAN, 1 daily JFK-HND, 1 daily LAX-HND, 2 daily JFK-LAX and 1 daily JFK-CDG, plus two spares for charters/IRROPS standby and slack for maintenance.
That's already a 15-strong fleet.
They would have to be dirt cheap though.
 
Rudenko
Posts: 43
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:57 am

flee wrote:
alancostello wrote:
foxtrotbravo21 wrote:
Do not think there is anyor much secondary used market for A380s even if they are relatvely new at just below 10 years. Thre are other airlines which have been trying to get rid of their youger A380s to no avail.. Malaysian Airlines have 6 of such 7 year olds to be sold but so far there are no takers and MH only uses these planes sparingly on charters. Thai also have wanted to sell theirs but to no buyers.

As far as I can remember BA kicked the tyres on the MH birds and weren’t particularly with them maintenance and condition wise, particularly for their age. A plane can be a year old and be undesirable if it hasn’t been taken care of properly.

What is your source of that information? Former MH CEO, Peter Bellew, said that those aircraft are as good as new - he said that after the aircraft underwent their first heavy checks.

AFAIK, MH is not about to run a fire sale for these aircraft. BA also does not like the cabin refurbishment costs - apparently, it can cost up to USD 50m to bring the cabin to BA specs.


BA customer engineering handled the MH 380 at LHR and it was countless times AOG, poor cabin, countless problems, this is where they may have picked up that information.

And you are correct about the cabin refurbs, just too expensive.

Cheers
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:38 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
...
Brand new A350's or B77W's are not suitable for short routes like JFK-LHR due to low utilisation and long taxiing times, sometimes in excess of 1 hour.

But at the end of the day, the decisive factor are the limited amounts of slots.

If I were DL, I would run A380's as follows: 4-5 daily JFK-LHR, 1 daily JFK-MAN, 1 daily JFK-HND, 1 daily LAX-HND, 2 daily JFK-LAX and 1 daily JFK-CDG, plus two spares for charters/IRROPS standby and slack for maintenance.
That's already a 15-strong fleet.
They would have to be dirt cheap though.


What you are describing -- an operation with a bunch of VLA's, acquired second-hand cheaply, flying trunk routes, and relying on charters to let their standby/extra planes to make an extra buck... That already existed: it was called Tower Air. Tower Air has proved that this model could work, until it couldn't. Reading about history of that airline, one wonders if the model was to blame for the failure, or rather lame implementation.

Of course, you offer to connect this operation with the rest of DL network for feed purposes, so there is an important difference there.
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gokmengs
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 12:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
I guess we shall see if a relatively new bird gets taken up, or if all the threads saying the SQ birds were not taken up because of the old wiring were bunk.

This is LN 040, 26th to fly, 29th delivered.

Don't think thats an apples to apples situation, old wiring issue was a headache when A380 was an ongoing program, now its a soon to be out of production program with nail in the coffin. Which probably makes it a harder sell vs a frame with wiring issue.
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