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CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:19 pm

Took Juliet Bravo - CDG-DXB November last year and she wasn't in great condition. Tatty inside, still had the original screens and seats.
 
ethernal
Posts: 312
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:29 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Delta's yield management is pretty spot on - they dropped NW's 747's as it made sense, haven't ordered the A380 and indicated it does not work for them. Remember, their main hub is ATL, a city of <1M, it does a lot thru LA, but their other hubs are not in huge metro areas - SEA 2.5M, Salt Lake <1M, MSP 3.2M, DTW <1M. There are 30 cities in North America with DL flights to Europe, so lots of Point to Point. There are 20 asia cities, but except for NRT (soon to HND) the spokes don't usually have connections beyond. Latin America is a lot of NB / 767 types of routes.


I agree with the jist of your post.. but your metro numbers are way off (unless you mean city proper.. which is a pretty useless definition of a catchment area).

Atlanta metro is 6M, Seattle is 4M, Salt Lake City is 2.5M using its CSA (which given the airport situation in Utah that is a better catchment area rather than its MSA), and Detroit is 4.3M. MSP at 3.6M is the only one even close to your number of 3.2M.

Agree that none of these are mega-cities (which in the US are NYC, LA, Chicago), but to imply that ATL is a 1M person city is silly.

In terms of the main post point, no regular carrier is going to pick these up. The A380 just isn't competitive. Ex-acquisition costs (which would admittedly be - at least in terms of direct spend - low here), A380 CASM just isn't competitive with smaller widebodies. Including acquisition costs you may get a small edge, but flying only a few of a type has its own hidden costs.

It is doomed either to charter work (likely with a de-branded but same existing interior) or the scrapyard.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24396
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:29 pm

FatCat wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Will this be the first "never been washed" A380 to enter secondary market.

someone said AF officials they have to wash it, but hell no, they preferred to retire the plane :white:

:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't think that decent B77W's will get sweet until they are obsolete.

The A380 has much better economics than the B77W.

You have a different notion of economics than the actual aviation marketplace does.

The ratio of deliveries is 3.5:1 in favor of 77W, whatever economic advantage A380 allegedly had did not pan out in real life.

The last 77W order was September of this year (!) the last meaningful A380 order was in 2013, the Haneda gunpoint order for 3 frames was in 2016.

I really wonder how you do your math.

Do you assume every plane goes out full and every seat sells for the same price?

Do you assume airlines can induct A380s with little cost of induction or refurbishment?

Do you really see an operator deciding to take A380s as the production line shuts down and blue chip airlines like SQ, LH and AF make plans to retire them, especially an airline such as DL or VS with no history of operating the type and VS already rejecting the type?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
FatCat wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Will this be the first "never been washed" A380 to enter secondary market.

someone said AF officials they have to wash it, but hell no, they preferred to retire the plane :white:

:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't think that decent B77W's will get sweet until they are obsolete.

The A380 has much better economics than the B77W.

You have a different notion of economics than the actual aviation marketplace does.

The ratio of deliveries is 3.5:1 in favor of 77W, whatever economic advantage A380 allegedly had did not pan out in real life.

The last 77W order was September of this year (!) the last meaningful A380 order was in 2013, the Haneda gunpoint order for 3 frames was in 2016.

I really wonder how you do your math.

Do you assume every plane goes out full and every seat sells for the same price?

Do you assume airlines can induct A380s with little cost of induction or refurbishment?

Do you really see an operator deciding to take A380s as the production line shuts down and blue chip airlines like SQ, LH and AF make plans to retire them, especially an airline such as DL or VS with no history of operating the type and VS already rejecting the type?


That is the billion dollar question, isn't it?
If they are cheap enough, I'm pretty sure that someone will pick them up.
Values of 70 millions were floated last time, which is not bad but we're not there yet.

I think that lessors would get most out of it leasing it out cheap, at least until they can get a solid foot in the door.
Who could resist an A380 going for the lease rate of a new A320neo? For that rate, you can park it in the winter as a standby aircraft, and use it intensively in the summer.

Once a few are taken up, the equation changes for the lessors too.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:47 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
That is the billion dollar question, isn't it?
If they are cheap enough, I'm pretty sure that someone will pick them up.
Values of 70 millions were floated last time, which is not bad but we're not there yet.

So your only concern in terms of cheap is the purchase or lease price?
What about the cost to refurbish (if required) and the operation cost, as a very large a/c with 4 engines and lots of seats, it is an expensive a/c to operate.
 
IWMBH
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:59 pm

par13del wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
That is the billion dollar question, isn't it?
If they are cheap enough, I'm pretty sure that someone will pick them up.
Values of 70 millions were floated last time, which is not bad but we're not there yet.

So your only concern in terms of cheap is the purchase or lease price?
What about the cost to refurbish (if required) and the operation cost, as a very large a/c with 4 engines and lots of seats, it is an expensive a/c to operate.


The only airline that I can think of that will be even remotely interested is BA, and even they've shown little interest in the SQ-birds. The purchase price is definitely important but like mentioned by par13del there are other costs to consider, these AF birds are pretty worn down and need a full overhaul.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:16 pm

par13del wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
That is the billion dollar question, isn't it?
If they are cheap enough, I'm pretty sure that someone will pick them up.
Values of 70 millions were floated last time, which is not bad but we're not there yet.

So your only concern in terms of cheap is the purchase or lease price?
What about the cost to refurbish (if required) and the operation cost, as a very large a/c with 4 engines and lots of seats, it is an expensive a/c to operate.


I already answered your question in this and other threads.
A B77W leases for 1.5 millions per month, or 50.000 USD per day and that's whether it's flying or not.
Widebodies with high utlisation can average a utlisiation of 14 hours per day.
A fully loaded B77W with 300 pax would hence only fly 1.15 representative 12-hour sectors per day, carrying 360 seat-sectors per day for the above mentionned 50.000 USD lease cost, ignoring fuel, crewing, maintenance and overhead.

Economy class return tickets for two 12 hour flights would cost in the range of 500-800USD on average.
Of that amount, 50.000 / 345 x 2 ≈290 USD would go to the lessor.
So for a 300-seat B77W operating 12 hour sectors at 100% average load factor, 35% to 55% of the ticket price vanishes into the capital cost before they even burn the first drip of fuel for the flight.

Yields are important too, but we can see today that the airlines making the big money today are the ones who have healthy yields, healthy load factors and their capital costs under control.

This does not apply to AF, so the A380 makes as much sense as the B77W, ie neither make sense towards running a profitable airline.

The same could be said about BA, which isn't growing and is only profitable thanks to its VLA operation, a past reputation and by offering poor value. This works in the short-term, but it's not a viable strategy for the long-term, especially if competitors come after them the way VS/DL, DY are. Of course, WW and his friends are untouchable as long as they can post 2 billions in annual profits, but things can turn very soar very quickly.

Now imagine an A380 costing you 500kUSD per month, with say 500 seats.
The above equation canges completely and now the amount is 16.000 / 500 x 2 ≠ 160 USD per ticket, or 20% to 30% of ths orice of a ticket.

When your yields turn negative in the winter, you can reduce frequencies and park your A380 at 1/3rd the cost of flying half empty B77W's at a loss.
Per seat fuel burn of a 300 seat B77W vs. a 500 seat A380 is also lower for the A380, in a much more generous configuration.

You lose less money in the winter, make more money in the summer with a cheap A380. So are you still sure that the B77W makes more sense than an A380?
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I guess we shall see if a relatively new bird gets taken up, or if all the threads saying the SQ birds were not taken up because of the old wiring were bunk.

This is LN 040, 26th to fly, 29th delivered.

This is a test of the A380 aftermarket. Alas, little hope. This example must have been marketed ever since AF announced.

Lightsaber


I am not a big A-380 fan but this is sad to see.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:42 pm

IWMBH wrote:
The only airline that I can think of that will be even remotely interested is BA, and even they've shown little interest in the SQ-birds. The purchase price is definitely important but like mentioned by par13del there are other costs to consider, these AF birds are pretty worn down and need a full overhaul.


Isn't WW on record stating that used A380s aren't a viable proposition because it's too costly to overhaul the interior to BA specs?
 
BrexitN
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:13 pm

Surprising an A380 would cost $350 million in 2007, That is $35 million each year if the A380 is retired after 10 years
 
ethernal
Posts: 312
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:20 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
That is the billion dollar question, isn't it?
If they are cheap enough, I'm pretty sure that someone will pick them up.
Values of 70 millions were floated last time, which is not bad but we're not there yet.

So your only concern in terms of cheap is the purchase or lease price?
What about the cost to refurbish (if required) and the operation cost, as a very large a/c with 4 engines and lots of seats, it is an expensive a/c to operate.


I already answered your question in this and other threads.
A B77W leases for 1.5 millions per month, or 50.000 USD per day and that's whether it's flying or not.
Widebodies with high utlisation can average a utlisiation of 14 hours per day.
A fully loaded B77W with 300 pax would hence only fly 1.15 representative 12-hour sectors per day, carrying 360 seat-sectors per day for the above mentionned 50.000 USD lease cost, ignoring fuel, crewing, maintenance and overhead.


And who is this going to be exactly? There are huge costs to onboarding an aircraft like the A380 into the network. If a player is going to do it, it will have to be a player that plans on absorbing a large amount of A380s in the second-hand market and use them for capacity flex during peak season. Who is that going to be? Everyone's favorite second-hand plane buyer (Delta) shuns VLA, as do other US carriers for the most part.

There are only maybe 10 carriers who could reasonably absorb a large number of A380s into their network. As far as I can tell, none of them are interested. You may see some charter pickups at basically scrap value acquisition cost. Air France, Lufthansa, and British Airways have all made it clear that they don't want them, and the US3 are unlikely to take them either. That leaves.. maybe one of the Chinese airlines?
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:40 pm

ethernal wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Delta's yield management is pretty spot on - they dropped NW's 747's as it made sense, haven't ordered the A380 and indicated it does not work for them. Remember, their main hub is ATL, a city of <1M, it does a lot thru LA, but their other hubs are not in huge metro areas - SEA 2.5M, Salt Lake <1M, MSP 3.2M, DTW <1M. There are 30 cities in North America with DL flights to Europe, so lots of Point to Point. There are 20 asia cities, but except for NRT (soon to HND) the spokes don't usually have connections beyond. Latin America is a lot of NB / 767 types of routes.


I agree with the jist of your post.. but your metro numbers are way off (unless you mean city proper.. which is a pretty useless definition of a catchment area).

Atlanta metro is 6M, Seattle is 4M, Salt Lake City is 2.5M using its CSA (which given the airport situation in Utah that is a better catchment area rather than its MSA), and Detroit is 4.3M. MSP at 3.6M is the only one even close to your number of 3.2M.

Agree that none of these are mega-cities (which in the US are NYC, LA, Chicago), but to imply that ATL is a 1M person city is silly.

In terms of the main post point, no regular carrier is going to pick these up. The A380 just isn't competitive. Ex-acquisition costs (which would admittedly be - at least in terms of direct spend - low here), A380 CASM just isn't competitive with smaller widebodies. Including acquisition costs you may get a small edge, but flying only a few of a type has its own hidden costs.

It is doomed either to charter work (likely with a de-branded but same existing interior) or the scrapyard.


I probably did use city proper and should use a 2 hour drive radius from the respective airports. My point though is that the US, with the exception of LA and NYC have a catchment area in the 2-5M people, while Asia has a lot of 5M and higher catchment area airports. What is important is the route demand, how many want to fly a specific route.

US domestic is certainly now a NB market, with possible NMA addition, but WB's now only make sense to fill schedule between long flights.

My guess is that an A380 would only make sense to be added if there are 1,500 daily or more, with it being too hard to fill if the A380 capacity is more than 1/3 of the daily totals. The balance fills with other WB's, provided the subject route can be done with NB, then it is out for an A380.

The airlines have the best direct evidence on the economics of the A380, their lack of orders says it all.
 
LTCM
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Nov 25, 2019 5:22 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
ethernal wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Delta's yield management is pretty spot on - they dropped NW's 747's as it made sense, haven't ordered the A380 and indicated it does not work for them. Remember, their main hub is ATL, a city of <1M, it does a lot thru LA, but their other hubs are not in huge metro areas - SEA 2.5M, Salt Lake <1M, MSP 3.2M, DTW <1M. There are 30 cities in North America with DL flights to Europe, so lots of Point to Point. There are 20 asia cities, but except for NRT (soon to HND) the spokes don't usually have connections beyond. Latin America is a lot of NB / 767 types of routes.


I agree with the jist of your post.. but your metro numbers are way off (unless you mean city proper.. which is a pretty useless definition of a catchment area).

Atlanta metro is 6M, Seattle is 4M, Salt Lake City is 2.5M using its CSA (which given the airport situation in Utah that is a better catchment area rather than its MSA), and Detroit is 4.3M. MSP at 3.6M is the only one even close to your number of 3.2M.

Agree that none of these are mega-cities (which in the US are NYC, LA, Chicago), but to imply that ATL is a 1M person city is silly.

In terms of the main post point, no regular carrier is going to pick these up. The A380 just isn't competitive. Ex-acquisition costs (which would admittedly be - at least in terms of direct spend - low here), A380 CASM just isn't competitive with smaller widebodies. Including acquisition costs you may get a small edge, but flying only a few of a type has its own hidden costs.

It is doomed either to charter work (likely with a de-branded but same existing interior) or the scrapyard.


I probably did use city proper and should use a 2 hour drive radius from the respective airports. My point though is that the US, with the exception of LA and NYC have a catchment area in the 2-5M people, while Asia has a lot of 5M and higher catchment area airports. What is important is the route demand, how many want to fly a specific route.

US domestic is certainly now a NB market, with possible NMA addition, but WB's now only make sense to fill schedule between long flights.

My guess is that an A380 would only make sense to be added if there are 1,500 daily or more, with it being too hard to fill if the A380 capacity is more than 1/3 of the daily totals. The balance fills with other WB's, provided the subject route can be done with NB, then it is out for an A380.

The airlines have the best direct evidence on the economics of the A380, their lack of orders says it all.



No need to calculate manual and arbitrary x hour drive distance. The US already calculates metro population by msa or csa. The top 10 csa's are all over 6 million.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:13 am

upintheair2019 wrote:
F-HPJB came to Malta to be painted all white at Aviation Cosmetics Malta, then returned to lessor (Dr. Peters Group).

Arrival video: http://www.facebook.com/aircraftspottin ... 016759850/


Much ado 'bout nothing.

It's there for a repaint.
 
upintheair2019
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:00 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
Much ado 'bout nothing. It's there for a repaint.


Air France confirmed it will be withdrawn from service, but from 01 January. So the info about exiting the fleet was true.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... pr-462537/
 
Noshow
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:09 pm

They will retire all their A380 until the end of 2022.
 
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Slash787
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:45 pm

Iran Air could have used this plane.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:54 pm

Slash787 wrote:
Iran Air could have used this plane.

Iran Air didn’t even want A380s when they had the (brief) opportunity to buy them new-they believe that their network is not ready for a plane that size.
 
ScottB
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:39 pm

upintheair2019 wrote:
Air France confirmed it will be withdrawn from service, but from 01 January. So the info about exiting the fleet was true


Operating a single flight on January 1 before returning the aircraft to the lessor sounds like an accounting or tax exercise -- to push expenses or write-offs into 2020.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
When your yields turn negative in the winter, you can reduce frequencies and park your A380 at 1/3rd the cost of flying half empty B77W's at a loss.


This isn't practical for most carriers as they still have to keep pilots current on the equipment during the low season -- and many would be reluctant to accept scheduling which would limit their annual earnings due to restrictions on the number of hours which could be flown during the peak months.

Even with low lease costs, the airline is still stuck with amortizing the very expensive refurbishment cost. There are reports from multiple carriers that the refurbishment of an A380 to current standards runs in the neighborhood of $50 million. If we spread that cost across ten years, even ignoring the time value of money or interest paid to borrow, that's over $400,000/month for the refurb on top of the "cheap" $500,000/month lease. Now you've got parked A380s eating up nearly two-thirds of the lease cost of a 77W.

And, FWIW, there's a reason why an A380 might cost less to lease than a 77W. That reason is left up to the reader to determine.
 
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Slash787
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:19 pm

Polot wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
Iran Air could have used this plane.

Iran Air didn’t even want A380s when they had the (brief) opportunity to buy them new-they believe that their network is not ready for a plane that size.


True, thats why they ordered A330neo and A35K which would have been great aircrafts, sadly they don't even have the B747 anymore.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:20 pm

Someone said no city pair needs an aircraft that large. And of course frequency is important to convenience, but I wonder if this concept would work..

A new LCC gets some used A380s and flies then once a day to/from a place like LAS. Chock that bird full of seats, price them to sell and set the price for the right yield. Fly to cities that have accommodations for A380s already in place with would otherwise go to waste.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:53 pm

ScottB wrote:
upintheair2019 wrote:
Air France confirmed it will be withdrawn from service, but from 01 January. So the info about exiting the fleet was true


Operating a single flight on January 1 before returning the aircraft to the lessor sounds like an accounting or tax exercise -- to push expenses or write-offs into 2020.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
When your yields turn negative in the winter, you can reduce frequencies and park your A380 at 1/3rd the cost of flying half empty B77W's at a loss.


This isn't practical for most carriers as they still have to keep pilots current on the equipment during the low season -- and many would be reluctant to accept scheduling which would limit their annual earnings due to restrictions on the number of hours which could be flown during the peak months.

Even with low lease costs, the airline is still stuck with amortizing the very expensive refurbishment cost. There are reports from multiple carriers that the refurbishment of an A380 to current standards runs in the neighborhood of $50 million. If we spread that cost across ten years, even ignoring the time value of money or interest paid to borrow, that's over $400,000/month for the refurb on top of the "cheap" $500,000/month lease. Now you've got parked A380s eating up nearly two-thirds of the lease cost of a 77W.

And, FWIW, there's a reason why an A380 might cost less to lease than a 77W. That reason is left up to the reader to determine.


50 million for a refurbishment according to "reports" is plain b*llocks.
50 million buys you 2 A220's. If you believe those "reports", you are being naive.

With in-house maintenance capabilities and using off-the shelf solutions that are common to the rest of your fleet, 10 millions is plenty for a decent refurbishment.
It makes me laugh that BA said the cost of the refurb is too high, when their product on the rest of the fleet is far from the best in the industry.

Also, I don't see why you would need a full refurb when you can just swap seat covers in Y and just the seats in the premium cabins, swap or upload the companu version of the IFE and PA software.

Take it from a guy who has done refurbs, removed /installed cabins during C-checks.

An A380 is bigger and hence costs proportionally more, perhaps even less than proportionally more considering volume discounts.

I think that we should put these SCASM, refurbishment and maintenance hog rumors to bed.
A380s have the lowest CASM compared to any aircraft at exit limits, ignoring the fact that the A380 exit limit could be raised towards 900 if wanted, it is as maintenance friendly as an aircraft could be, providing smooth access for maintenance that other aircraft could only dream of. It has twice the size but just as many systems as on an A350.

The A380 is like two B787-10's stacked one on top of each other in terms of volume and capacity, it will burn slightly less while offering higher MTOW and range, cost less than half of one of them to purchase.
Sure, it doesn't haul around a big empty belly, but that's waste anyway when you are in the business of hauling people.
But you still need the two pilots, barely more engineers, you still only have one avionics suite to maintain and worry about as most faults on the line are electronics nowadays, structural repairs are much easier so you can keep operating it for longer at lower cost, etc... Ow and did I mention, you don't need to worry about engine issues as much as on the B787-10's, the A380 is past the point of concern, regarding ugly premature fatigue or wear issues, they should be uncovered by now, which is still a big unknown for the B787/A350's all-carbon airframes.
If there are issues with the B787's CFRP design, don't expect Boeing to come forward with them, we'll surely have to find out the hard way.
 
asr0dzjq
Posts: 203
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:22 pm

TheWorm123 wrote:
I’m gonna guess it’s next trip will be one way

I'm gonna guess that its next stop will be the scrapyard
R.I.P. Douglas Aircraft Company
Born 22 July 1921 | Died 23 May 2006
You will be missed, but your management will not.
 
crownvic
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:24 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Someone said no city pair needs an aircraft that large. And of course frequency is important to convenience, but I wonder if this concept would work..

A new LCC gets some used A380s and flies then once a day to/from a place like LAS. Chock that bird full of seats, price them to sell and set the price for the right yield. Fly to cities that have accommodations for A380s already in place with would otherwise go to waste.



How about an LCC between LGW-MCO or MAN-MCO those 6 Virgin 744's a day in the summer are coming to an end. (Yes I know 2 were from Belfast and Glasgow ) Not to mention the loss of Thomas Cook too..
 
smartplane
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:52 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
50 million for a refurbishment according to "reports" is plain b*llocks.
50 million buys you 2 A220's. If you believe those "reports", you are being naive.

With in-house maintenance capabilities and using off-the shelf solutions that are common to the rest of your fleet, 10 millions is plenty for a decent refurbishment.
It makes me laugh that BA said the cost of the refurb is too high, when their product on the rest of the fleet is far from the best in the industry.

Also, I don't see why you would need a full refurb when you can just swap seat covers in Y and just the seats in the premium cabins, swap or upload the companu version of the IFE and PA software.

Take it from a guy who has done refurbs, removed /installed cabins during C-checks.

An A380 is bigger and hence costs proportionally more, perhaps even less than proportionally more considering volume discounts.

Agree.

USD50m is for a low volume bespoke interior, as currently fitted to all except EK, rounded up to the nearest USD10m. No end of lease payment for interior refurbishment is anywhere near this amount.

A 777/A350 style refurbishment would be USD10-20m, even allowing for some new 'standard' interior panels to replace some of the expensive to replace one offs. Or buy a new EK 2 class interior if they will permit, with different seat covers.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:16 pm

crownvic wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Someone said no city pair needs an aircraft that large. And of course frequency is important to convenience, but I wonder if this concept would work..

A new LCC gets some used A380s and flies then once a day to/from a place like LAS. Chock that bird full of seats, price them to sell and set the price for the right yield. Fly to cities that have accommodations for A380s already in place with would otherwise go to waste.



How about an LCC between LGW-MCO or MAN-MCO those 6 Virgin 744's a day in the summer are coming to an end. (Yes I know 2 were from Belfast and Glasgow ) Not to mention the loss of Thomas Cook too..


You two are quite welcome to invest your funds in such a venture. They won't be seeing my money.

The idea that every carrier is doing it wrong retiring A380s early, or not trying routes xxx-yyy ... well, you know. The kind wording is that I find this improbable. If there's a place on earth where people are more stubbornly resistant to market information than A380 threads on a.net, I don't know where it is.
 
9Patch
Posts: 581
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:39 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
I probably did use city proper and should use a 2 hour drive radius from the respective airports. My point though is that the US, with the exception of LA and NYC have a catchment area in the 2-5M people, while Asia has a lot of 5M and higher catchment area airports.


2018 population estimates Metropolitan Statistical Area:

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 9,498,716
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 7,539,711
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 6,997,384
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 6,249,950
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA 6,198,782
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 6,096,372

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ted_States
 
TheWorm123
Posts: 256
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:36 pm

crownvic wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Someone said no city pair needs an aircraft that large. And of course frequency is important to convenience, but I wonder if this concept would work..

A new LCC gets some used A380s and flies then once a day to/from a place like LAS. Chock that bird full of seats, price them to sell and set the price for the right yield. Fly to cities that have accommodations for A380s already in place with would otherwise go to waste.



How about an LCC between LGW-MCO or MAN-MCO those 6 Virgin 744's a day in the summer are coming to an end. (Yes I know 2 were from Belfast and Glasgow ) Not to mention the loss of Thomas Cook too..

That’s exactly what I’m thinking. It might have standard wiring unlike the first few non standard ex-SQ birds which were scrapped, but the market just isn’t there anymore.
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ScottB
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:43 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
50 million for a refurbishment according to "reports" is plain b*llocks.
50 million buys you 2 A220's. If you believe those "reports", you are being naive.


Here's the news report from a reputable news outlet in the country where much of the A380 manufacturing occurred: https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-servi ... 380-149802

45 million euros is just a shade under $50 million dependent on exchange rate fluctuations. Why would multiple airline management teams lie? The stories are consistent across the industry and we hear nary a word from Airbus refuting what you seem to think is a vastly inflated cost figure.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
With in-house maintenance capabilities and using off-the shelf solutions that are common to the rest of your fleet, 10 millions is plenty for a decent refurbishment.
It makes me laugh that BA said the cost of the refurb is too high, when their product on the rest of the fleet is far from the best in the industry.


Proof? I don't disagree about BA's sorry product, but a carrier like Delta isn't going to induct a high-profile aircraft like the A380 with yesteryear's cabins. They won't let VS do it either. (This is entirely aside from the fact that Delta doesn't want to dump vast amounts of capacity in its transatlantic markets, and they probably don't love A380s at their JV partners, either.)

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Also, I don't see why you would need a full refurb when you can just swap seat covers in Y and just the seats in the premium cabins, swap or upload the companu version of the IFE and PA software.


They may not be using the same IFE vendor or the system version may not support the company's current IFE software. I flew AF's A380 a few years back and the IFE did feel ancient -- incredibly laggy user interface coupled with poor screens. Delta's current system feels (and probably is) generations ahead.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
A380s have the lowest CASM compared to any aircraft at exit limits, ignoring the fact that the A380 exit limit could be raised towards 900 if wanted


No one flies the A380 with seat counts within 200 of the exit limits. No one was interested in the proposed modifications to go 11-abreast on the main deck. Why do you think this is?
 
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:43 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
50 million for a refurbishment according to "reports" is plain b*llocks.
50 million buys you 2 A220's. If you believe those "reports", you are being naive.

With in-house maintenance capabilities and using off-the shelf solutions that are common to the rest of your fleet, 10 millions is plenty for a decent refurbishment.
It makes me laugh that BA said the cost of the refurb is too high, when their product on the rest of the fleet is far from the best in the industry.


Answer me this: What incentive does BA, AF, or any other carrier have for inflating the cost of refurbishing the interior of an A380 to kill their own business case for operating the type / acquiring more of the type, if they could easily make a killing by acquiring second-hand planes cheaply and flying them?
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2223
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:25 am

9Patch wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
I probably did use city proper and should use a 2 hour drive radius from the respective airports. My point though is that the US, with the exception of LA and NYC have a catchment area in the 2-5M people, while Asia has a lot of 5M and higher catchment area airports.


2018 population estimates Metropolitan Statistical Area:

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 9,498,716
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 7,539,711
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 6,997,384
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 6,249,950
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA 6,198,782
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 6,096,372

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ted_States


My original point was that outside of LAX and NYC the city size makes it difficult to regularly fill an A380. The reason why NO US airline ordered the A380 - far too much of a plane.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:10 am

That first A380 shown that was repainted white about a year ago does not have any engines or power plants. So it shows that aircraft's flying days may be over. The just retired Air France A380 is also getting painted white. Air France is just returning them according to the lease agreement which may require a repaint. It is also possible Air France does not want have any of their out of lease A380s sitting around in their livery. Also a leased aircraft can not be stripped of any parts, including the interior. The aircraft must be returned whole without any part substitution. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
ethernal
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:25 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
9Patch wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
I probably did use city proper and should use a 2 hour drive radius from the respective airports. My point though is that the US, with the exception of LA and NYC have a catchment area in the 2-5M people, while Asia has a lot of 5M and higher catchment area airports.


2018 population estimates Metropolitan Statistical Area:

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 9,498,716
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 7,539,711
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 6,997,384
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 6,249,950
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA 6,198,782
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 6,096,372

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ted_States


My original point was that outside of LAX and NYC the city size makes it difficult to regularly fill an A380. The reason why NO US airline ordered the A380 - far too much of a plane.


It's slightly more nuanced than that. The EU carriers that bought the A380 have a couple of key differences from the US: practical I-I connections and regional concentration to only 1-2 hubs (BA: LHR, LH: MUC/FRA, AF/KLM: CDG/AMS).

This is very different than the US where carriers (due to a mix of both common language and relative country size / distribution / travel patterns) are spread across more hubs. If you exclude the double-hubs (e.g., BA says that LGW is a hub too), Delta has 3 more hubs than the entire "EU3" combined. Of course, the hubs (other than Atlanta) are relatively smaller than theirs, but that is the nature of their (and the other US3's) network.

Combine that with the fact that I-I connections are obviously non-desirable in the US (sub-optimal geography combined with forced immigration with one of the world's worst border controls) and you have carriers that are going to focus more on point-to-point and smaller aircraft.
 
smartplane
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:04 am

NWAROOSTER wrote:
Also a leased aircraft can not be stripped of any parts, including the interior. The aircraft must be returned whole without any part substitution. :old:

That depends on how it was leased, specific end of lease terms and conditions, and variations agreed at end of lease. For example, some airlines lease bare aircraft, with no seating or IFE, while others lease everything.

On new aircraft leases, an interior refurbishment at end of lease is standard practice. At end of lease, the lessee will negotiate to mitigate this cost by leaving in the old and making a 'condition difference' payment, leasing a new aircraft from the same lessor with a portion or all EOL payments forgiven as an inducement, etc.

Often a lease extension of the same aircraft includes a portion or even all EOL payments being forgiven.

Most interior fixtures and fittings are depreciated at twice the rate of the aircraft and engines.

There is a gulf between published and 'real' lease rates. The vast majority of aircraft are placed, with no advertising or even full market disclosure.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:39 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
50 million for a refurbishment according to "reports" is plain b*llocks.
50 million buys you 2 A220's. If you believe those "reports", you are being naive.

With in-house maintenance capabilities and using off-the shelf solutions that are common to the rest of your fleet, 10 millions is plenty for a decent refurbishment.
It makes me laugh that BA said the cost of the refurb is too high, when their product on the rest of the fleet is far from the best in the industry.


Answer me this: What incentive does BA, AF, or any other carrier have for inflating the cost of refurbishing the interior of an A380 to kill their own business case for operating the type / acquiring more of the type, if they could easily make a killing by acquiring second-hand planes cheaply and flying them?


What incentive don't they have?
-Justification towards shareholders of a decision that may be wrong, to cover their incompetence in making an A380 operation profitable.
-Putting pressure on the financing market by lowering the desirability of the aircraft so that they can survive as a downsizing airline, ie make financing difficult for EK on new A380's.
-Hoping for lease renewals at bottom of market conditions.
-Hoping to take in more aircraft after some airlines have returned theirs and they become available at bottom of market conditions.
 
ethernal
Posts: 312
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
50 million for a refurbishment according to "reports" is plain b*llocks.
50 million buys you 2 A220's. If you believe those "reports", you are being naive.

With in-house maintenance capabilities and using off-the shelf solutions that are common to the rest of your fleet, 10 millions is plenty for a decent refurbishment.
It makes me laugh that BA said the cost of the refurb is too high, when their product on the rest of the fleet is far from the best in the industry.


Answer me this: What incentive does BA, AF, or any other carrier have for inflating the cost of refurbishing the interior of an A380 to kill their own business case for operating the type / acquiring more of the type, if they could easily make a killing by acquiring second-hand planes cheaply and flying them?


What incentive don't they have?
-Justification towards shareholders of a decision that may be wrong, to cover their incompetence in making an A380 operation profitable.
-Putting pressure on the financing market by lowering the desirability of the aircraft so that they can survive as a downsizing airline, ie make financing difficult for EK on new A380's.
-Hoping for lease renewals at bottom of market conditions.
-Hoping to take in more aircraft after some airlines have returned theirs and they become available at bottom of market conditions.


Wow - that's some strained logic. I'm pretty sure that early retirement of these birds is already acknowledgement that things didn't work as planned. But, somehow, by doing this they are somehow saving face? :roll:

By default I think Ocaam's razor should apply here. The planes are too expensive to operate and too much capacity for most routes. You might be able to fix the first by densifying the planes to get non-acquisition cost CASM in line with a 77W, but you're doing that at the expense of the second problem (making too much capacity worse).

The A380 is an amazing machine. It's unfortunate that an A380-900 was never built because it probably could have at least been a CASM-killer which would lead to some interesting use cases. But the problem is the market for a 750 seat plane - good CASM or not - isn't big enough, and so Airbus wisely didn't make it. Meaning that all you've got is an overbuilt 4-engine plane in a 2-engine world with not-that-great CASM. It is what it is.

It is certainly possible that one day we'll see a new iteration of an A380-like VLA as slot constraints and airspace congestion become the greatest constraining factor. But right now that is not the driving market force. It is what it is.
 
OB1504
Posts: 3966
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:46 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Someone said no city pair needs an aircraft that large. And of course frequency is important to convenience, but I wonder if this concept would work..

A new LCC gets some used A380s and flies then once a day to/from a place like LAS. Chock that bird full of seats, price them to sell and set the price for the right yield. Fly to cities that have accommodations for A380s already in place with would otherwise go to waste.


You have basically invented Tower Air, but with a much more limited set of potential destinations.

 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 317
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:15 pm

It'll be interesting to see how long Qantas keep theirs. They're one of the few bluechips that hasn't made any mention of an exit strategy. I suppose their very narrow bandwidth of routes they use them on, mostly OZ-LAX/DFW and OZ-LHR, works for them.
 
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WesternDC6B
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:32 pm

One thing that I’m wondering about: what parts commonality does the A380 have with other aircraft? I ask this with my eye on the potential value of salvaged parts going on to live in other aircraft types. Cabin fittings, electrical parts, pumps, actuators, and other such things that can be overhauled and placed in inventory?
“Pedantic” defined: spelling “pedantic” “pædantic”.
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 353
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:59 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
It'll be interesting to see how long Qantas keep theirs. They're one of the few bluechips that hasn't made any mention of an exit strategy. I suppose their very narrow bandwidth of routes they use them on, mostly OZ-LAX/DFW and OZ-LHR, works for them.


Currently going through updating cabins with QF, so would assume at least mid to late 2020s.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:31 pm

OB1504 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Someone said no city pair needs an aircraft that large. And of course frequency is important to convenience, but I wonder if this concept would work..

A new LCC gets some used A380s and flies then once a day to/from a place like LAS. Chock that bird full of seats, price them to sell and set the price for the right yield. Fly to cities that have accommodations for A380s already in place with would otherwise go to waste.


You have basically invented Tower Air, but with a much more limited set of potential destinations.



Fair point. But we’re taking a niche airline, I wonder if it would work with the right niche...like Las Vegas, which has pretty good and consistent demand. Especially on the lower end of fares.
 
TheWorm123
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:20 pm

[quote="Polot"][quote="Slash787"]Iran Air could have used this plane.[/quote]
Iran Air didn’t even want A380s when they had the (brief) opportunity to buy them new-they believe that their network is not ready for a plane that size.[/quote]
Any A380 thread gets turned into ‘Iran Air need that’ I’ve noticed.
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:10 pm

AirFiero wrote:

But we’re taking a niche airline, I wonder if it would work with the right niche...like Las Vegas, which has pretty good and consistent demand. Especially on the lower end of fares.


In 1999 an airline named National tried the LAS niche concept with 757-200's. They found the 757 too large and were looking at 738's before they succumbed (9-11 didn't help). There's also this fantasy project called Family Airlines that had/has a plan to operate 744's along the same concept. They haven't even managed to fly. I can't see this happening with the A380. The domestic US market isn't the place for the concept. Too many entrenched competitors willing to drive yields into the dirt to prevent any sort of success with a niche operation of this sort.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:27 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

But we’re taking a niche airline, I wonder if it would work with the right niche...like Las Vegas, which has pretty good and consistent demand. Especially on the lower end of fares.


In 1999 an airline named National tried the LAS niche concept with 757-200's. They found the 757 too large and were looking at 738's before they succumbed (9-11 didn't help). There's also this fantasy project called Family Airlines that had/has a plan to operate 744's along the same concept. They haven't even managed to fly. I can't see this happening with the A380. The domestic US market isn't the place for the concept. Too many entrenched competitors willing to drive yields into the dirt to prevent any sort of success with a niche operation of this sort.


Sounds like a good assessment, thanks.
 
2175301
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:48 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

But we’re taking a niche airline, I wonder if it would work with the right niche...like Las Vegas, which has pretty good and consistent demand. Especially on the lower end of fares.


In 1999 an airline named National tried the LAS niche concept with 757-200's. They found the 757 too large and were looking at 738's before they succumbed (9-11 didn't help). There's also this fantasy project called Family Airlines that had/has a plan to operate 744's along the same concept. They haven't even managed to fly. I can't see this happening with the A380. The domestic US market isn't the place for the concept. Too many entrenched competitors willing to drive yields into the dirt to prevent any sort of success with a niche operation of this sort.


Virtually every modest sized city and larger in the USA has direct flights to Las Vegas and back using narrow body aircraft. Often more than once a day. The larger cities use larger narrow bodies or small wide body aircraft. All of these airlines already have the market covered, and often the aircraft are well used and not the most recent. I fail to see how anyone is going to fill a large wide body aircraft in this market in the USA. These other airlines can easily add more narrow body flights or upgage in size and do so cheaper than the operating cost of an A380.

There is a very real reason there are no A380's operating in the North American market - or even 747's (and darn few 777's). What 747's and 777's exist is almost always used for international intercontinental travel (there might be a few 777's between New York and Los Angeles, etc).

Have a great day.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
TheWorm123 wrote:
I’m gonna guess it’s next trip will be one way

I'm gonna guess that its next stop will be the scrapyard

Why will they paint an aircraft if it is headed to the scrapyard?
 
EddieDude
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:12 pm

So, with one less A380 in its fleet, what AF destinations will be served with the A380 fleet from January 2020?
Upcoming flights:
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TC957
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:36 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
TheWorm123 wrote:
I’m gonna guess it’s next trip will be one way

I'm gonna guess that its next stop will be the scrapyard

Why will they paint an aircraft if it is headed to the scrapyard?

For the image it portrays I suspect, like SQ painted theirs all white before withdrawing them as well.
Not good to have your full colours and titles showing on a high-profile aircraft being parted out.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:09 pm

TC957 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
I'm gonna guess that its next stop will be the scrapyard

Why will they paint an aircraft if it is headed to the scrapyard?

For the image it portrays I suspect, like SQ painted theirs all white before withdrawing them as well.
Not good to have your full colours and titles showing on a high-profile aircraft being parted out.

As written above, it may be an obligation of the airline and the lease it signed to return the plane in a given condition.

It also might be a sign that the lease return was less than amicable, since in an amicable return the lessor and lessee often agree to just paint over the titles instead of the more costly repaint to white.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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FGITD
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
TC957 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
Why will they paint an aircraft if it is headed to the scrapyard?

For the image it portrays I suspect, like SQ painted theirs all white before withdrawing them as well.
Not good to have your full colours and titles showing on a high-profile aircraft being parted out.

As written above, it may be an obligation of the airline and the lease it signed to return the plane in a given condition.

It also might be a sign that the lease return was less than amicable, since in an amicable return the lessor and lessee often agree to just paint over the titles instead of the more costly repaint to white.



To be fair, in AF's case painting over the titles pretty much makes the plane white.

Probably one of the cheapest liveries out there to white out.

Also given that the aircraft is going back to the lessor, AF has no say in the fate of the frame so all white it is. While unlikely, you never know...it could find a new home. And no way does the lessor want to be stuck with an a380 that they accepted returned in AF colors, when someone else now wants it.
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