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DTWLAX
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:23 pm

EddieDude wrote:
So, with one less A380 in its fleet, what AF destinations will be served with the A380 fleet from January 2020?

I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:46 pm

The only way a major carrier would lease a A380 most likely would be on a power by the hour basis and quick 30 day return......... :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:11 pm

Hopefully the first Air France A380 will be preserved at a museum or have another form of static use rather than scrapped as it also has a museum exhibit onboard itself.
 
GRJGeorge
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:11 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
EddieDude wrote:
So, with one less A380 in its fleet, what AF destinations will be served with the A380 fleet from January 2020?

I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.


This is the last season JNB is served by A380

From end of March, NS20, JNB switch back to 77W and was announced just this week to stay 77W for NW20/21
 
EK770
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:36 am

DTWLAX wrote:
EddieDude wrote:
So, with one less A380 in its fleet, what AF destinations will be served with the A380 fleet from January 2020?

I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.


I’m not so sure that will be the case https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-28nov19/
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:42 am

DTWLAX wrote:
I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.


LAX has been 3x daily 777 during a few seasons.
I'd say JFK, MEX and PVG would be the last place the A380 goes to.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:15 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.


LAX has been 3x daily 777 during a few seasons.
I'd say JFK, MEX and PVG would be the last place the A380 goes to.


A380 won't be flying to PVG in NS20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/287075/air-france-s20-shanghai-aircraft-changes-as-of-22oct19/
 
Sokes
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:44 am

Revelation wrote:

The market is showing it cannot often support moving ~525 passengers on a given city pair at the same time.

Making the bigger/heavier/costlier version first would have made this more apparent sooner.



Or the bigger frame would have offered much better CASM and therefore would have been easier to fill on most routes.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

If there is ever a route that the A380 was built for, it's LHR-JFK.


I don't think a low cargo capacity A380 is best used on a 3000 nm, 7,5 hours flight.
I would assume Europe to US West coast or transpacific is good.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Polot
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:46 am

Sokes wrote:
Revelation wrote:

The market is showing it cannot often support moving ~525 passengers on a given city pair at the same time.

Making the bigger/heavier/costlier version first would have made this more apparent sooner.



Or the bigger frame would have offered much better CASM and therefore would have been easier to fill on most routes.

CASM doesn’t necessarily make something easier to fill, RASM is also a thing. CASM is not the end all be all metric for airlines.
 
Sokes
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:53 am

Polot wrote:
CASM doesn’t necessarily make something easier to fill, RASM is also a thing. CASM is not the end all be all metric for airlines.


True, but nor is there a fixed size market. The plane makes the market.

In your favour:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1435033&start=200, post 243:
ScottB wrote:
Economy class demand, at a price point which is profitable for airlines, is finite. The operators didn't get the configuration wrong. They went with spacious economy cabins precisely because they understood there was no point cramming in a bunch of extra seats which they weren't confident they could fill consistently. An A380 with 600+ seats isn't more profitable than one with 450 seats unless a large enough fraction of those additional 150+ economy seats can be filled regularly without diluting yields.

Last edited by Sokes on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Polot
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:56 am

Sokes wrote:
Polot wrote:
CASM doesn’t necessarily make something easier to fill, RASM is also a thing. CASM is not the end all be all metric for airlines.


True, but nor is there a fixed size market. The plane makes the market.


To a certain extent yes. But you can only stimulate the market so much before you have to resort to junk fares. Market sizes are not infinite.
 
Sokes
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:59 am

Polot wrote:
Market sizes are not infinite.


Sounds logical, but then there is Emirates.
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Polot
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:04 am

Sokes wrote:
Polot wrote:
Market sizes are not infinite.


Sounds logical, but then there is Emirates.

The same Emirates that has cancelled a portion of their A380/777X orders and is moving to smaller A359s and 789s?

Even they are recognizing that very large planes don’t fit everywhere.
 
Sokes
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:11 am

Polot wrote:
The same Emirates that has cancelled a portion of their A380/777X orders and is moving to smaller A359s and 789s?

Even they are recognizing that very large planes don’t fit everywhere.


If Air France had 113 A380s nobody would be surprised if they wanted to retire some or not order more.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:15 am

AsiaTravel wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.


LAX has been 3x daily 777 during a few seasons.
I'd say JFK, MEX and PVG would be the last place the A380 goes to.


A380 won't be flying to PVG in NS20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/287075/air-france-s20-shanghai-aircraft-changes-as-of-22oct19/


Well thats sad *sarcasm*
I guess the A380 will be plowing NA routes till she retires. I rest my cast about the other 2 options though.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:23 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
I think JNB and LAX are certain to stay until the A380 stops flying completely for AF.


LAX has been 3x daily 777 during a few seasons.
I'd say JFK, MEX and PVG would be the last place the A380 goes to.

LAX has always had the A380 for the past 5 years. I can say that because I have flown CDG-LAX at least twice a year (during the summer and winter seasons) since 2015 and every time it has been on the A380.
Most of the times it has flown as AF66 but once in a while it has flown as AF76.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:35 am

Where efficiency gains are getting hard to hold, doing two distinct mission profiles that are a true stretch or shrink is about the only way it pencils out.

The A388 was the shrink of the A389 that would carry more out to similar ranges, not a stretch with less range.
So it really needed to get rid of a couple of seats per row, doing a single aisle 6ab that was a bit wide to be great for business class or 1st.
Then it needed the optimized to a plane 10-15% smaller than it became. That might have saved it, but it is still very big.

The 744 really sold for its range, but its seat capacity was way to big for a lot of thinner routes. No other alternates. Today the 787, 777, and A350 are the choices, smaller but consistent profits.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:55 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Where efficiency gains are getting hard to hold, doing two distinct mission profiles that are a true stretch or shrink is about the only way it pencils out.

The A388 was the shrink of the A389 that would carry more out to similar ranges, not a stretch with less range.
So it really needed to get rid of a couple of seats per row, doing a single aisle 6ab that was a bit wide to be great for business class or 1st.
Then it needed the optimized to a plane 10-15% smaller than it became. That might have saved it, but it is still very big.

The 744 really sold for its range, but its seat capacity was way to big for a lot of thinner routes. No other alternates. Today the 787, 777, and A350 are the choices, smaller but consistent profits.


So please show me where AF's "consistent profits from widebody twins" are?
Why do LH Passage, BA make a profit despite having a significant fleet of quads?

Explain to me how Lufthansa Passage made 1.615 billion EUR EBIT in 2018 with 30 twins over 80 quad widebodies, while AF can't stop bleeding despite having 90 twin over 20 quad widebodies? Your argument doesn't hold water as the results don't reflect that.

IMO we'll see more airlines plunge into negative territory as they downsize with smaller twin widebodies, and the market becomes more segmented and less profitable.
 
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Revelation
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:10 pm

Sokes wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The market is showing it cannot often support moving ~525 passengers on a given city pair at the same time.

Making the bigger/heavier/costlier version first would have made this more apparent sooner.

Or the bigger frame would have offered much better CASM and therefore would have been easier to fill on most routes.

In the real world the 526th seat will sell for a lower price than the 525th, and so on.

When supply exceeds demand airlines cut prices to try to recover some revenue from the unsold seats.

When supply trails demand passengers drive up prices due to their need to travel at the time they need to travel.

Airlines have learned that, in general, capacity discipline makes the most money for them.

EK is an outlier because they have so many factors working in their favor: geography, governance, labor cost, low competition, great investment climate, strong local tourism industry, mostly favorable weather, etc.

Yet even EK has hit their A380 saturation point and is now changing their fleet strategy.

AF battles a bunch of these things and faces a lot of competitive pressure.

The proof is in the pudding: if the A380 was a strong performer AF would not be retiring 10 year old frames nor would EK be changing fleet strategies.
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Sokes
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:21 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Explain to me how Lufthansa Passage made 1.615 billion EUR EBIT in 2018 with 30 twins over 80 quad widebodies, while AF can't stop bleeding despite having 90 twin over 20 quad widebodies?


That's a nice question.


Revelation wrote:

EK is an outlier because they have so many factors working in their favor: geography, governance, labor cost, low competition, great investment climate, strong local tourism industry, mostly favorable weather, etc.

Yet even EK has hit their A380 saturation point and is now changing their fleet strategy.

The proof is in the pudding: if the A380 was a strong performer AF would not be retiring 10 year old frames nor would EK be changing fleet strategies.



Even though Emirates has much more laborers for their turnover than e.g. Lufthansa, I still believe relatively cheap immigrant labor is the reason behind it's success.
If multinationals keep research in rich countries and shift production in countries with cheaper labor, isn't it logical that the same is done for international flights?
Which may explain how Emirates can support 113 A380s and Air France can't support 9.

But then to fly from India to the US it is rather strange to make the necessary stop after three hours. Anywhere in Northern Europe is the logical choice.
Or are Emirates's India-US seats sold just to fill the excess capacity on A380s, seats that can't be sold in South East Asia or in the region around Dubai?
In which case A380 CASM should be quite a bit cheaper than B777 CASM.

What do you mean with favorable weather? Heat that forces twins to start below usual MTOW?
Tehran or Baku have favorable geography. Dubai's location is rather not so good.

Your "proof is in the pudding" argument is strong. But Emirates's success with 113 A380s is also quite a pudding. I struggle to reach a conclusion.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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par13del
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:30 pm

Sokes wrote:
But then to fly from India to the US it is rather strange to make the necessary stop after three hours. Anywhere in Northern Europe is the logical choice.

Another question would be prior to EK, who was offering the connection opportunity, is the assumption that the success of EK is because they shifted traffic from someone else or that they provided an additional connection option at a price with convenience that appealed to and created a larger customer base?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The market is showing it cannot often support moving ~525 passengers on a given city pair at the same time.

Making the bigger/heavier/costlier version first would have made this more apparent sooner.

Or the bigger frame would have offered much better CASM and therefore would have been easier to fill on most routes.

In the real world the 526th seat will sell for a lower price than the 525th, and so on.

When supply exceeds demand airlines cut prices to try to recover some revenue from the unsold seats.

When supply trails demand passengers drive up prices due to their need to travel at the time they need to travel.

Airlines have learned that, in general, capacity discipline makes the most money for them.

EK is an outlier because they have so many factors working in their favor: geography, governance, labor cost, low competition, great investment climate, strong local tourism industry, mostly favorable weather, etc.

Yet even EK has hit their A380 saturation point and is now changing their fleet strategy.

AF battles a bunch of these things and faces a lot of competitive pressure.

The proof is in the pudding: if the A380 was a strong performer AF would not be retiring 10 year old frames nor would EK be changing fleet strategies.


Yield management is a lot more complex than that.
Most Western airlines haven't even tried to study EK's clever yield management strategies.
Nobody on airliners.net have asked themselves how EK fills A380's full of business class seats with a one-stop in DXB and how that impacts carriers like the EU3. Heck, the EU3 haven't figured it out yet because they are lazy, they haven't done their homework and EK is destroying them without them even knowing it.
 
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Revelation
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:05 pm

Sokes wrote:
Revelation wrote:
EK is an outlier because they have so many factors working in their favor: geography, governance, labor cost, low competition, great investment climate, strong local tourism industry, mostly favorable weather, etc.

Yet even EK has hit their A380 saturation point and is now changing their fleet strategy.

The proof is in the pudding: if the A380 was a strong performer AF would not be retiring 10 year old frames nor would EK be changing fleet strategies.

Even though Emirates has much more laborers for their turnover than e.g. Lufthansa, I still believe relatively cheap immigrant labor is the reason behind it's success.
If multinationals keep research in rich countries and shift production in countries with cheaper labor, isn't it logical that the same is done for international flights?
Which may explain how Emirates can support 113 A380s and Air France can't support 9.

But then to fly from India to the US it is rather strange to make the necessary stop after three hours. Anywhere in Northern Europe is the logical choice.
Or are Emirates's India-US seats sold just to fill the excess capacity on A380s, seats that can't be sold in South East Asia or in the region around Dubai?
In which case A380 CASM should be quite a bit cheaper than B777 CASM.

What do you mean with favorable weather? Heat that forces twins to start below usual MTOW?
Tehran or Baku have favorable geography. Dubai's location is rather not so good.

Your "proof is in the pudding" argument is strong. But Emirates's success with 113 A380s is also quite a pudding. I struggle to reach a conclusion.

One can visualize that evaluating a hub would use a weighted sum with many terms with different multiplicative factors in the equation.

Labor cost is one term in the equation with a large multiplicative factor that works in EK's favor and against the EU legacies.

As above we can find more favorable geographies but in doing so you reduce other advantages such as governance, taxation, weather, etc.

Heat and sandstorms do disrupt flights, but so does snow and fog, and overall a warm sunny climate is one that many find attractive.

I'm not sure we can call 113 A380s a success: it's clear that fleet size is not sustainable and the airframe itself will die without progeny.

Clearly Tehran and Baku did not and still do not have the same kind of investment climate and market opportunities that Dubai offered.

IST will be an interesting place to watch, it has a nice geographical location and a large O&D market with affordable labor but may have challenges on the governance side of the equation.
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Revelation
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:22 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Most Western airlines haven't even tried to study EK's clever yield management strategies.
Nobody on airliners.net have asked themselves how EK fills A380's full of business class seats with a one-stop in DXB and how that impacts carriers like the EU3. Heck, the EU3 haven't figured it out yet because they are lazy, they haven't done their homework and EK is destroying them without them even knowing it.

Ok, I'll bite: feel free to show proof that "Most Western airlines haven't even tried to study EK's clever yield management strategies", "Nobody on airliners.net have asked themselves how EK fills A380's full of business class seats with a one-stop in DXB", "the EU3 haven't figured it out yet because they are lazy", "EK is destroying them without them even knowing it", etc.

IMO EK was a disruptive force that the legacies and their governments were slow to react to, but to suggest there is currently little understanding of how EK operates is absurd.

EK operates in a totally different political and fiscal climate than did/does the legacies, and to suggest they could "fight fire with fire" is absurd.

EK had the fiscal and political support to follow a growth at all cost strategy and now without such support the balloon is busted and the air is rushing out.

STC is doing a massive spin job by blaming others for refusing to follow his reckless past strategy while he is at the same time making his future strategy come in line with that of the ones he is criticizing.

He is like a duck on a pond, above the water looking calm and dignified while under the water pedaling furiously.

STC's successors will have quite a task cleaning up the damage that STC has inflicted on EK and its business partners.
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Polot
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:23 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Or the bigger frame would have offered much better CASM and therefore would have been easier to fill on most routes.

In the real world the 526th seat will sell for a lower price than the 525th, and so on.

When supply exceeds demand airlines cut prices to try to recover some revenue from the unsold seats.

When supply trails demand passengers drive up prices due to their need to travel at the time they need to travel.

Airlines have learned that, in general, capacity discipline makes the most money for them.

EK is an outlier because they have so many factors working in their favor: geography, governance, labor cost, low competition, great investment climate, strong local tourism industry, mostly favorable weather, etc.

Yet even EK has hit their A380 saturation point and is now changing their fleet strategy.

AF battles a bunch of these things and faces a lot of competitive pressure.

The proof is in the pudding: if the A380 was a strong performer AF would not be retiring 10 year old frames nor would EK be changing fleet strategies.


Yield management is a lot more complex than that.
Most Western airlines haven't even tried to study EK's clever yield management strategies.
Nobody on airliners.net have asked themselves how EK fills A380's full of business class seats with a one-stop in DXB and how that impacts carriers like the EU3. Heck, the EU3 haven't figured it out yet because they are lazy, they haven't done their homework and EK is destroying them without them even knowing it.

If EK’s financial performance the past couple of years is any indication, their yield management is not that clever. Don’t confuse volume with yield.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:58 pm

Well, I'm not going to splash out (part of) EK's yield management strategy for free like that, it's the fruit of years of research.

You can ask yourself, how does EK fill 540 daily F/C seats out of CDG with its 3 daily A380's, the equivalent capacity of AF's 9 B789's, and they do it with 1-stops via DXB? Try to conduct some research and you'll figure it out.

Sure, volume is not yield, but if you do some research, you will know that they're not exactly playing Santa with their yields, their strategy is simple but clever. The A380 effect, while not essential, seals the deal.

If I were at the helm of AF, EK could be happy to fly a daily Flydubai B738's into CDG (range permitting), that's how badly AF and KLM are passive and don't know what they're doing.
If they had figured it out, they would have decimated and chased the ME3 out of their hubs a long time ago.
 
comet44
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:40 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Well, I'm not going to splash out (part of) EK's yield management strategy for free like that, it's the fruit of years of research.

You can ask yourself, how does EK fill 540 daily F/C seats out of CDG with its 3 daily A380's, the equivalent capacity of AF's 9 B789's, and they do it with 1-stops via DXB? Try to conduct some research and you'll figure it out.

Sure, volume is not yield, but if you do some research, you will know that they're not exactly playing Santa with their yields, their strategy is simple but clever. The A380 effect, while not essential, seals the deal.

If I were at the helm of AF, EK could be happy to fly a daily Flydubai B738's into CDG (range permitting), that's how badly AF and KLM are passive and don't know what they're doing.
If they had figured it out, they would have decimated and chased the ME3 out of their hubs a long time ago.


It's rather silly to think that AF could fly all those people to DXB and then give them connections to Australia, Africa, India, China, Japan, etc, with the rest of their A380 fleet.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:54 pm

AF primarily uses CDG as its primary hub. It has 106 widebodies of which 10 are A380's and 68 are 777, it has 114 NB and 70 RJ's in what looks to be a typical balanced fleet to their route map, each spoke rationalized to have the best available plane cost wise on each route.

How any hub network can utilize a 77W as its smallest plane is beyond me. At least a 1/4 of their flights must have very low load factors.
 
Sokes
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:12 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:

You can ask yourself, how does EK fill 540 daily F/C seats out of CDG with its 3 daily A380's, the equivalent capacity of AF's 9 B789's, and they do it with 1-stops via DXB?


To fly from Europe to Southeast Asia Dubai was the one big hub.
And I have seen a lot of (I assume) Chinese at some other Arabian Gulf airport boarding a plane to Athens. I remember I said to myself that's quite some extra way, but one more hour in the air seems not to matter.
Also I would assume Bangkok to be the natural stop to fly from Europe to Australia. I find it strange to connect in the Arabian Gulf. But somehow Dubai managed.

Paris would be a good stop for US to most places in Asia. But so would be London, Frankfurt, ...
Air France can't have the monopoly position Emirates enjoyed.

Dubai's neighbors trying to keep up with the Jones plus Istanbul places Dubai now in a similar position.

But then why is Emirates still accepting new A380s? I struggle to believe that they are unaware of the fact that competition increased.
I remember some years back the cheapest flight from Munich to Mumbai was via London. And Munich New York may be cheapest via Istanbul. Such nonsense can only exist if there is economy of scale in plane size.
If I assume that a flight is best connected half way, Emirates offers a lot of strange connections. The only way I can explain it is cheap labor AND economy of scale with the A380.

Let's assume Lufthansa or any other European airline wanted to buy 50 A380s to absorb most traffic from the US to Asia. Would politics allow it?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:43 pm

Sokes wrote:
Dubai's neighbors trying to keep up with the Jones plus Istanbul places Dubai now in a similar position.

But then why is Emirates still accepting new A380s? I struggle to believe that they are unaware of the fact that competition increased.
I remember some years back the cheapest flight from Munich to Mumbai was via London. And Munich New York may be cheapest via Istanbul. Such nonsense can only exist if there is economy of scale in plane size.
If I assume that a flight is best connected half way, Emirates offers a lot of strange connections. The only way I can explain it is cheap labor AND economy of scale with the A380.

Let's assume Lufthansa or any other European airline wanted to buy 50 A380s to absorb most traffic from the US to Asia. Would politics allow it?

1. I cannot explain EK's top off order. However, they are contractually obligated to keep accepting A380s. Long lead parts are ordered two years before an aircraft is delivered, such as engine casings. Those must be completed before engine assembly where a completed and tested engine, integrated into a nacelle, will eventually be installed on the assembly line. Airbus is shutting down the line as fast as possible.
2. Dubai runs the risk of 2nd place to IST except for India and Australia. O&D matters. As does location EU to Africa (ADD competes there too).
3. No EU airlines could add the feeder flights to feed banks of A380s. AF sees the future. A321LRs/xLRs and smaller widebodies will fragment the Atlantic market as they also will from Asia. The future belongs to the expanding airports. For example, I expect AA at PHL and CLT to go after as much TATL vs. AF/Skyteam as possible.

The A380 had lower cost per passenger than the 777-300ER. My math has the 779 and A35K flying a passenger for less than the A380. The question is, are they cheap enough per passenger to slow fragmentation vs. A321xLR/787-10/A359?

Lightsaber
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Revelation
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:46 pm

Sokes wrote:
Paris would be a good stop for US to most places in Asia. But so would be London, Frankfurt, ...
Air France can't have the monopoly position Emirates enjoyed.

Dubai's neighbors trying to keep up with the Jones plus Istanbul places Dubai now in a similar position.

A few years ago the cheapest way to fly BOS-CDG was BOS-IST-CDG with TK.

This was even cheaper than flying via Iceland.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:04 pm

AF has deprogrammed the A380 services in PVG, SFO, JNB (for the winter 20/21) and one of the daily flights to JFK, for the summer of 2020 there is ATL, LAX, IAD, MEX and a daily flight to JFK and In winter MIA, at the end of 2020 they will remain 7-6 A380, I imagine they added new frequencies in most of the routes, JNB came to be operated with double daily with B77W, and SFO and JFK increased frequencies, in most of the routes the capacity of the A380 is needed
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Dubai's neighbors trying to keep up with the Jones plus Istanbul places Dubai now in a similar position.

But then why is Emirates still accepting new A380s? I struggle to believe that they are unaware of the fact that competition increased.
I remember some years back the cheapest flight from Munich to Mumbai was via London. And Munich New York may be cheapest via Istanbul. Such nonsense can only exist if there is economy of scale in plane size.
If I assume that a flight is best connected half way, Emirates offers a lot of strange connections. The only way I can explain it is cheap labor AND economy of scale with the A380.

Let's assume Lufthansa or any other European airline wanted to buy 50 A380s to absorb most traffic from the US to Asia. Would politics allow it?

1. I cannot explain EK's top off order. However, they are contractually obligated to keep accepting A380s. Long lead parts are ordered two years before an aircraft is delivered, such as engine casings. Those must be completed before engine assembly where a completed and tested engine, integrated into a nacelle, will eventually be installed on the assembly line. Airbus is shutting down the line as fast as possible.
2. Dubai runs the risk of 2nd place to IST except for India and Australia. O&D matters. As does location EU to Africa (ADD competes there too).
3. No EU airlines could add the feeder flights to feed banks of A380s. AF sees the future. A321LRs/xLRs and smaller widebodies will fragment the Atlantic market as they also will from Asia. The future belongs to the expanding airports. For example, I expect AA at PHL and CLT to go after as much TATL vs. AF/Skyteam as possible.

The A380 had lower cost per passenger than the 777-300ER. My math has the 779 and A35K flying a passenger for less than the A380. The question is, are they cheap enough per passenger to slow fragmentation vs. A321xLR/787-10/A359?

Lightsaber


I'm no fan of EK, but in terms of becoming a worldwide player and filling their A380's, they are champs.
While they are often one of the cheaper options, it's rare that they are the cheapest. And yet, their A380's are flying with lots of pax.
If they ordered another 50, they'll probably be able to fill them, there are still markets in Europe where they could upgauge or increase frequencies, especially now considering that AF/LH/BA, QR are setup to walk away from their A380's and open the market up.

2nd place to IST is not a concern for DXB as long as TK keeps doing what they're doing now.
TK is weak in the premium cabins and even in the economy cabins, they are more of a rival to the likes of SU, LO, Egyptair, AY than they are to EK.
That could change though, we shall see.

No EU airlines could add the feeder flights to operate A380's, but do they need to when EK can fly away with KL's profits with multiple daily A380's out of AMS, while KL is busy feeding their flights with low yield connecting traffic?
 
lutfi
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Re: A380 Air France in Malta today

Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:35 am

stylo777 wrote:
Last year in February an Air France A380 appeared at Aviation Cosmetics Malta for the first time. Looking at the pictures, it is the same hangar.
What still struggles me the most is the fact that they didn't remove any interior and other useful materials.
They either got the painting-spot on short notice and need to do that stuff afterwards or it's something else.
Is it actually confirmed that the bird returns to Dr. Peters Group?



As AF are retiring the A380 fleet, the interior is no use to them. They will have more than enough spare parts for the rest of the (shrinking) fleet
 
IADCA
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:05 am

As the fleet gets smaller, it would make sense for them to stay on routes that require precise utilization (that is, 2 airplanes exactly with minimal ground time) or things that can be done in a day turn. That sort of narrows the list and gives an idea of what might be the last few.

JayinKitsap wrote:
AF primarily uses CDG as its primary hub. It has 106 widebodies of which 10 are A380's and 68 are 777, it has 114 NB and 70 RJ's in what looks to be a typical balanced fleet to their route map, each spoke rationalized to have the best available plane cost wise on each route.

How any hub network can utilize a 77W as its smallest plane is beyond me. At least a 1/4 of their flights must have very low load factors.


That, and managing frequency and price to keep the airplanes full. If you sell connections cheap enough, people will take them, even if they're inconvenient. The trick is making money while doing so.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:52 am

Can Air France convert some 787 orders into 747 orders?

Could Boeing offer Air France a deal they can’t refuse on end-of-the-line 747s?

It seems the A380 is only useful if you have a slot-controlled hub. I bet Lufthansa and Air France are regretting not ordering more 747-8s instead of the A380s. The 747 can fly to more airports and can be boarded with only two jetways. The A380 requires three.

I believe the A380 also requires wider taxiways than the 747-8.

I believe the A380 arrived 50 years too early. As the Earth population continues to grow, hubs should see a slow and steady increase in traffic.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:28 am

blacksoviet wrote:
Can Air France convert some 787 orders into 747 orders?


Why would they?

Could Boeing offer Air France a deal they can’t refuse on end-of-the-line 747s?


Why would they?

I bet Lufthansa and Air France are regretting not ordering more 747-8s instead of the A380s.


Why would they?

More to the point, it was recently reported that the company that builds large fuselage sections for the 747 has just wrapped up production and is in the process of selling off their plant and equipment. In other words, there are no end-of-the-line 747s to be sold because the 747 line (at least for those particular components) has already ended. It would require significant investment in an alternate supplier and production facility to get them going again. The costs would not be in line with this imaginary “deal they can’t refuse” that you fantasize about.

Further, the decision to reduce A380 fleets wasn’t just dreamed up this month. These carriers have been analyzing things for a while before coming to this conclusion. For airlines that are getting rid of the A380, for what reason at all would they want to order an only slightly smaller and moderately less efficient 747-8? Air France already retired their 747s, why would they want to bring them back? (Hint: They wouldn’t). Lufthansa had all the time in the world to order more 747s (they had additional options on the -8). They didn’t, instead opting to go with the 777-9.

Boeing has no incentive to lose money on a “deal they can’t refuse” to sell more of a plane they’re already probably either losing money on, or at best barely breaking even at current production rates. The market rejected the 747-8 (especially as a passenger plane) even more than it did the A380. Only in a.net fantasy land does any passenger airline wish they had more 747s. And while you could argue that some cargo carriers could use the 747, obviously it wasn’t enough for Boeing to sustain production above 6 per year (0.5 per month) with some long-lead parts already out of production.

Both planes are dead. Some folks just need to get over that fact.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:51 am

Last A380 is to be delivered in 2021. At the extreamely low production rate some components must be near or at their last production run.

AF might order 779s. Maybe. Otherwise, their VLA era is basically over.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
questions
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:46 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Why not? VS/DL are very aggressive on LHR-JFK, recently upgrading it to the A350 and such.
Imagine how much premium traffic they could drain from BA by offering flagship service.


DL cares about premium revenues, not about how full premium cabins are. Even with all tightening to SkyMiles only 50% of premium cabins are filled with paid passengers. 50% are loyalty related.

Only 40% of Delta's revenues are from premium, 60% from the economy. Which one do you think is better from a business perspective, getting 60% without doing much (or) 40% with all the expenditure and attention.

No other airline discusses this topic.


Thanks for the statistics. Where did Delta discuss this?
 
cschleic
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:42 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Well, I'm not going to splash out (part of) EK's yield management strategy for free like that, it's the fruit of years of research.

You can ask yourself, how does EK fill 540 daily F/C seats out of CDG with its 3 daily A380's, the equivalent capacity of AF's 9 B789's, and they do it with 1-stops via DXB? Try to conduct some research and you'll figure it out.

Sure, volume is not yield, but if you do some research, you will know that they're not exactly playing Santa with their yields, their strategy is simple but clever. The A380 effect, while not essential, seals the deal.

If I were at the helm of AF, EK could be happy to fly a daily Flydubai B738's into CDG (range permitting), that's how badly AF and KLM are passive and don't know what they're doing.
If they had figured it out, they would have decimated and chased the ME3 out of their hubs a long time ago.


So you're saying we can do some digging on our own and determine what it took EK years to develop? You definitely don't think highly of them. And it's 540 daily F/C seats into and out of CDG, not just out of, right?
 
Jetty
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:10 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I'm no fan of EK, but in terms of becoming a worldwide player and filling their A380's, they are champs.
While they are often one of the cheaper options, it's rare that they are the cheapest. And yet, their A380's are flying with lots of pax.

(...)

No EU airlines could add the feeder flights to operate A380's, but do they need to when EK can fly away with KL's profits with multiple daily A380's out of AMS, while KL is busy feeding their flights with low yield connecting traffic?

KL feeding their flights with low yield connecting traffic and EK profitably filling A380’s with lots of pax? That’s kind of a weird statement when you know that KL’s profits last year were over 4 times as much as EK’s in a less favorable business environment... :spin:
 
Sokes
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:29 am

lightsaber wrote:

2. Dubai runs the risk of 2nd place to IST except for India and Australia. O&D matters. As does location EU to Africa (ADD competes there too).

Lightsaber


Fully agree with Istanbul. The location is much better than Arabian Gulf. Anybody knows about labor cost difference between Istanbul and Dubai?



Revelation wrote:

A few years ago the cheapest way to fly BOS-CDG was BOS-IST-CDG with TK.

This was even cheaper than flying via Iceland.



On the map Iceland is a great stop for Europe to US West coast. It's not so great for East cost. But then there is no suitable alternate anywhere closeby, so it will never make for a great hub.


IADCA wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:
How any hub network can utilize a 77W as its smallest plane is beyond me. At least a 1/4 of their flights must have very low load factors.


That, and managing frequency and price to keep the airplanes full. If you sell connections cheap enough, people will take them, even if they're inconvenient. The trick is making money while doing so.


Great info. So Emirates is not profit focused. It's enough if they break even. They aim to connect as many people as possible as cheap as possible.
Europe's carriers are more RASM and profit focused. They will rather choose frequency to please their business class customers and accept higher CASM and the loss of price conscious customers.
That makes sense. European carriers may also not have any alternatives. Their labor cost is higher so they need to focus on RASM. They can't win on CASM.

Even then it's odd to use B777 as smallest plane. Maybe in cities with less passenger demand they pack the planes' bellies with fast perishable food or other high density cargo?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
EddieDude
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:45 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
AF has deprogrammed the A380 services in PVG, SFO, JNB (for the winter 20/21) and one of the daily flights to JFK, for the summer of 2020 there is ATL, LAX, IAD, MEX and a daily flight to JFK and In winter MIA, at the end of 2020 they will remain 7-6 A380, I imagine they added new frequencies in most of the routes, JNB came to be operated with double daily with B77W, and SFO and JFK increased frequencies, in most of the routes the capacity of the A380 is needed

Thanks a lot RainierBoeing777.

I concur with those who think MEX will be one of the last stations to see the A380. It was the very last 744 destination.

With respect to CDG-JFK or other routes that get a combination of aircraft including the A380, I think AF should remove the A380 immediately so that business passengers get a more consistent experience.
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
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Revelation
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:51 pm

Sokes wrote:
Revelation wrote:
A few years ago the cheapest way to fly BOS-CDG was BOS-IST-CDG with TK.

This was even cheaper than flying via Iceland.

On the map Iceland is a great stop for Europe to US West coast. It's not so great for East cost. But then there is no suitable alternate anywhere closeby, so it will never make for a great hub.

I think if all things were equal Iceland could make a go of it as a hub despite its less than ideal geographic location, but all things are not equal. It is an island and must spend a lot to import a lot of things needed to operate a hub, especially aviation fuel. Also the high cost of living means labor is not cheap. Yet the fact that it has made a go of it shows how "ripe for the picking" the legacies are. Someone just needs to figure out a formula that works.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:54 pm

questions wrote:
Thanks for the statistics. Where did Delta discuss this?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-M6-yY ... u.be&t=456

And minute marker 9:50

PS: I am surprised 12 hours past and no one said I made up these numbers.
All posts are just opinions.
 
mcg
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:02 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
FatCat wrote:
someone said AF officials they have to wash it, but hell no, they preferred to retire the plane :white:

:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't think that decent B77W's will get sweet until they are obsolete.

The A380 has much better economics than the B77W.

You have a different notion of economics than the actual aviation marketplace does.

The ratio of deliveries is 3.5:1 in favor of 77W, whatever economic advantage A380 allegedly had did not pan out in real life.

The last 77W order was September of this year (!) the last meaningful A380 order was in 2013, the Haneda gunpoint order for 3 frames was in 2016.

I really wonder how you do your math.

Do you assume every plane goes out full and every seat sells for the same price?

Do you assume airlines can induct A380s with little cost of induction or refurbishment?

Do you really see an operator deciding to take A380s as the production line shuts down and blue chip airlines like SQ, LH and AF make plans to retire them, especially an airline such as DL or VS with no history of operating the type and VS already rejecting the type?


That is the billion dollar question, isn't it?
If they are cheap enough, I'm pretty sure that someone will pick them up.
Values of 70 millions were floated last time, which is not bad but we're not there yet.

I think that lessors would get most out of it leasing it out cheap, at least until they can get a solid foot in the door.
Who could resist an A380 going for the lease rate of a new A320neo? For that rate, you can park it in the winter as a standby aircraft, and use it intensively in the summer.

Once a few are taken up, the equation changes for the lessors too.


The most cost effective home for this aircraft is..............Air France. They pay nothing to own (the original purchase cost is sunk, they pay no incremental lease or ownership costs), they've got a fully trained staff, store house full of parts, all required regulatory approvals; and they don't want it.
 
questions
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:34 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
questions wrote:
Thanks for the statistics. Where did Delta discuss this?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-M6-yY ... u.be&t=456

And minute marker 9:50

PS: I am surprised 12 hours past and no one said I made up these numbers.


Thanks.
 
OB1504
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:15 pm

Has F-HPJB been un-retired? It operated AF 90/99 CDG-MIA-CDG today. All white, no titles.
 
Seat1F
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:15 pm

OB1504 wrote:
Has F-HPJB been un-retired? It operated AF 90/99 CDG-MIA-CDG today. All white, no titles.

I saw it pull up to the E gates at MIA yesterday. So strange that AF still has this aircraft in service given that it is now all white.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sun Dec 15, 2019 4:44 pm

Seat1F wrote:
OB1504 wrote:
Has F-HPJB been un-retired? It operated AF 90/99 CDG-MIA-CDG today. All white, no titles.

I saw it pull up to the E gates at MIA yesterday. So strange that AF still has this aircraft in service given that it is now all white.

Some would say it's strange AF. :biggrin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
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