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User avatar
Revelation
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:39 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Removing the A380s from its fleet will cost AF a significant amount of money. When presenting the 2019-financial results, they stated that the overall cost will be about 370 million Euros, mainly for special depreciation.
Source: https://www.aero.de/news-34195/Teures-A ... rance.html

Wow, to depreciate 370 million EUR was cheaper for AF than to rehabilitate the cabins and to keep the A380s. :scratchchin:

The rehab would require AF to generate actual cash via operations or via borrowing that could be problematic, the depreciation just impacts the book value of the company and improves future years by getting an under-performing asset off the books.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:40 pm

Is it really necessary to destroy the frame. Why can it be parted out and leave the shell alone. Is it possible to detach(not cut) the wings?
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:30 pm

Ask and ye shall receive, tweet with a video of the A380 landing in Knock, sadly in portrait rather than landscape:

https://twitter.com/patgken/status/1230543873711181824
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
Ask and ye shall receive, tweet with a video of the A380 landing in Knock, sadly in portrait rather than landscape:

https://twitter.com/patgken/status/1230543873711181824


Here is one in landscape, from Airport's twitter :bouncy:

https://twitter.com/Irelandwest/status/ ... 19648?s=08
 
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Revelation
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:50 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Ask and ye shall receive, tweet with a video of the A380 landing in Knock, sadly in portrait rather than landscape:

https://twitter.com/patgken/status/1230543873711181824


Here is one in landscape, from Airport's twitter :bouncy:

https://twitter.com/Irelandwest/status/ ... 19648?s=08

Thanks, I appreciate both, but I enjoy the portrait view and the better vantage point of this video.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:25 pm

Considering this is one of the newer A380s produced, and unlike its ill-fated SQ brethren apparently actually had standard wirings and equipment, does this mean that AF's A380s will almost certainly all be ending up in the scrapyard by the time 2022 comes? And would this mean that almost all retired A380s will end up being scrapped instead of finding new owners? Right now it seems like only HiFly is even interested in using used A380s, and even then they only need a handful at most.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:40 am

What a great opportunity, like Tower Air back long ago. Equip 2 dozen A380s with 600+ all economy seats and fly leisure routes to exotic places are rock bottom prices. Not sure if anyone can pull this off.

Short of something like that the future of the A380 is limited.
 
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PM
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:31 am

Atlwarrior wrote:
This must hurts Airbus the most to see the country’s national carrier parking the A-380.

Airbus is not a French company.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:42 am

PM wrote:
Atlwarrior wrote:
This must hurts Airbus the most to see the country’s national carrier parking the A-380.

Airbus is not a French company.


True, but arguably France is the country that is most associated with Airbus (along with Germany) given France's close links to Airbus and the head office being in Toulouse. The A380 even moreso since it was assembled in Toulouse and made its first flight there.
RIP 9V-SKA
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marcelh
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:33 am

mxaxai wrote:
In other words, AF wasn't expecting to make more than 80 million € in profits (if any) over the remaining lifetime of the fleet.


No, they are expecting to make more profit with their fleet by dropping the A380.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:19 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Right now it seems like only HiFly is even interested in using used A380s, and even then they only need a handful at most.

A handful?! Yes, their CEO said something like this but the more statements I read from him and the more I compared them with reality, the more I get the feeling that he has this A380-addiction, similar to EK's Tim Clark. It goes that far that he put his name on their only A380 in form of the registration 9H-MPI.

Okay, this was now the grumpy, Statler-and-Waldorf-like reply. Here is a second try, less grumpy and more sober: when comparing the past utilization of 9H-MPI, see:
2018: viewtopic.php?t=1400499
2019: viewtopic.php?t=1411897
2020: viewtopic.php?t=1438065

I get the feeling that they will not find the demand to operate a handful of A380s. Maybe a second airframe at a later stage.

PS.: just found an article from July 2019, where Paulo Mirpuri "confirms" they will acquire a second A380 in 2020: https://www.aerotelegraph.com/hi-fly-pl ... irbus-a380
 
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terrificturk
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:38 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
PM wrote:
Atlwarrior wrote:
This must hurts Airbus the most to see the country’s national carrier parking the A-380.

Airbus is not a French company.


True, but arguably France is the country that is most associated with Airbus (along with Germany) given France's close links to Airbus and the head office being in Toulouse. The A380 even moreso since it was assembled in Toulouse and made its first flight there.


The HQ is actually in Holland for tax purposes (sadly), on the German side its HQ is in Munich, but true, Airbus is much more a prized asset in France than Germany.

Having said that, AF never really understood the A380, never really wanted nor needed it but bought it because BA and LH did. The latter two are actually earning good money with it too.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:44 pm

terrificturk wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
PM wrote:
Airbus is not a French company.

Having said that, AF never really understood the A380, never really wanted nor needed it but bought it because BA and LH did. The latter two are actually earning good money with it too.


Isn't Lufthansa selling some of their A380s back to Airbus due to high expenses?
RIP 9V-SKA
2007 - 2019
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:58 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
What a great opportunity, like Tower Air back long ago. Equip 2 dozen A380s with 600+ all economy seats and fly leisure routes to exotic places are rock bottom prices. Not sure if anyone can pull this off.

Short of something like that the future of the A380 is limited.


The problems with that scenario are:
(a) it's too difficult to sell 600 seats constantly- even at rock bottom prices
(b) even if you accomplished (a) above, the operational costs can't be covered because you filled the flight with rock bottom prices- it's a vicious cycle.
(c) not all leisure destination airports are equipped to handle the A380 and truthfully, it's not worth their investment either
 
mxaxai
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:01 pm

marcelh wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
In other words, AF wasn't expecting to make more than 80 million € in profits (if any) over the remaining lifetime of the fleet.


No, they are expecting to make more profit with their fleet by dropping the A380.

Well yes, though we may have a misunderstanding here:

Case 1)
Cost of premature retirement: 370 million €

vs.

Case 2)
Cost of Refurbishment: 450 million €
Operating Costs over 10 years: xx million €
Revenues over 10 years: (yy) million €
Total Cost: 450 + xx - yy million €

And AF obviously determined that they would lose less money through case 1, i. e. the expected profits (yy - xx) were less than 80 million €.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:23 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
terrificturk wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Having said that, AF never really understood the A380, never really wanted nor needed it but bought it because BA and LH did. The latter two are actually earning good money with it too.


Isn't Lufthansa selling some of their A380s back to Airbus due to high expenses?

Correct, LH will sell back six of its 14 A380s back to Airbus in 2022 and 2023. My interpretation is that they have some routes where they can make money with the A380 but not enough routes for a fleet of 14 A380s.


Picture of F-HPJB after its arrival in Knock:
Image
Source: https://airlinerwatch.com/10/

As per this article, the next A380 to leave AF's fleet will be F-HPJD in a few months.
 
marcelh
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:29 pm

mxaxai wrote:
marcelh wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
In other words, AF wasn't expecting to make more than 80 million € in profits (if any) over the remaining lifetime of the fleet.


No, they are expecting to make more profit with their fleet by dropping the A380.

Well yes, though we may have a misunderstanding here:

Case 1)
Cost of premature retirement: 370 million €

vs.

Case 2)
Cost of Refurbishment: 450 million €
Operating Costs over 10 years: xx million €
Revenues over 10 years: (yy) million €
Total Cost: 450 + xx - yy million €

And AF obviously determined that they would lose less money through case 1, i. e. the expected profits (yy - xx) were less than 80 million €.


You are just looking to the A380. IMHO, you have to take the entire AF fleet and developements into consideration. And AF has concluded they will make more money when they retire the A380 asap and add some (IIRC 10) A359 to the fleet. It's possible that the expected profits for the A380 in the next 10 years are 200 million €, but that a fleet without the A380 will just make more money.
 
Jetty
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:57 pm

marcelh wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
marcelh wrote:

No, they are expecting to make more profit with their fleet by dropping the A380.

Well yes, though we may have a misunderstanding here:

Case 1)
Cost of premature retirement: 370 million €

vs.

Case 2)
Cost of Refurbishment: 450 million €
Operating Costs over 10 years: xx million €
Revenues over 10 years: (yy) million €
Total Cost: 450 + xx - yy million €

And AF obviously determined that they would lose less money through case 1, i. e. the expected profits (yy - xx) were less than 80 million €.


You are just looking to the A380. IMHO, you have to take the entire AF fleet and developements into consideration. And AF has concluded they will make more money when they retire the A380 asap and add some (IIRC 10) A359 to the fleet. It's possible that the expected profits for the A380 in the next 10 years are 200 million €, but that a fleet without the A380 will just make more money.

Not even only the entire AF fleet, KL’s fleet factors in as well: AF having it’s A380’s replaced by more A350’s allows KL’s fleet to grow as there’s an agreement with pilot unions about the widebody balance between the companies.
 
A388
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:28 pm

As these AF A380's are newer models compared to the SQ A380's, will HiFly become interested in these A380's? BA is out of the question I'm assuming because of the engines used? Or can they swap the GP engines easily with the RR engines? BA did say in the past that they would look into second hand A380's, is that still the case now?

A388
 
ScottB
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:00 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Right now it seems like only HiFly is even interested in using used A380s, and even then they only need a handful at most.


Right now it seems like HiFly is interested in operating a single A380 under very favorable commercial terms for HiFly. It's obvious (to me, at least) HiFly's A380 operation is intended by Airbus to prop up the secondhand market (and consequently, demand for high-profit spares) for the type. It doesn't work because pretty much any operator for whom the A380 could remotely make commercial sense understands there's a special relationship between HiFly and Airbus.

JayinKitsap wrote:
What a great opportunity, like Tower Air back long ago. Equip 2 dozen A380s with 600+ all economy seats and fly leisure routes to exotic places are rock bottom prices. Not sure if anyone can pull this off.


Tower Air was a disaster and went out of business. Good luck with two dozen A380s when the next coronavirus or similar shock hits.
 
masit
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:55 pm

A very sad day to see this bird land for the last time. In between rain showers the sun came out for her (and the big crowd) as she landed.

https://youtu.be/13xd7KG1JhY
 
Confuscius
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:00 pm

masit wrote:
A very sad day to see this bird land for the last time. In between rain showers the sun came out for her (and the big crowd) as she landed.

https://youtu.be/13xd7KG1JhY


Now that's a true eurowhite paint scheme! :shock:
Ain't I a stinker?
 
tomcat
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:30 pm

eta unknown wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
What a great opportunity, like Tower Air back long ago. Equip 2 dozen A380s with 600+ all economy seats and fly leisure routes to exotic places are rock bottom prices. Not sure if anyone can pull this off.

Short of something like that the future of the A380 is limited.


The problems with that scenario are:
(a) it's too difficult to sell 600 seats constantly- even at rock bottom prices
(b) even if you accomplished (a) above, the operational costs can't be covered because you filled the flight with rock bottom prices- it's a vicious cycle.
(c) not all leisure destination airports are equipped to handle the A380 and truthfully, it's not worth their investment either


Emirates operates a bunch of A380s equipped with 615 seats and not even all of them are economy seats. They seem to have found a few routes that work with that configuration. Besides that, the other A380 operators seem perfectly happy with their less dense seatings.

This being said, in the early days of the A380, I thought that France was a prime candidate to have an airline operating the A380 in a high density, since airlines like Air France and Corsair used to operate large aircraft in a high density on fairly long leisure routes which don't require a high frequency. Obviously, the A380 has never been deemed suitable for these routes.

About the lack of traction of the A380 at Air France, I keep thinking that one of the reason for this is the sluggish economic growth experienced in France in the two last decades. The French economy has lost a lot of competitiveness (see the now significant structural trade deficit of France which reappeared around 2005 after a decade of trade surpluses). The Paris hub may not have grown as much a one could expect 20 years ago, especially the long haul business trafic originating in Paris and more widely in France.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:35 am

ScottB wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Right now it seems like only HiFly is even interested in using used A380s, and even then they only need a handful at most.


Right now it seems like HiFly is interested in operating a single A380 under very favorable commercial terms for HiFly. It's obvious (to me, at least) HiFly's A380 operation is intended by Airbus to prop up the secondhand market (and consequently, demand for high-profit spares) for the type. It doesn't work because pretty much any operator for whom the A380 could remotely make commercial sense understands there's a special relationship between HiFly and Airbus.

JayinKitsap wrote:
What a great opportunity, like Tower Air back long ago. Equip 2 dozen A380s with 600+ all economy seats and fly leisure routes to exotic places are rock bottom prices. Not sure if anyone can pull this off.


Tower Air was a disaster and went out of business. Good luck with two dozen A380s when the next coronavirus or similar shock hits.


I know that it was a total disaster. Trying the same thing today with the A380 is an impossible dream (and an accountant's nightmare), a widebody startup using A330ceo's and or 772ER's or similar excellent planes from 10 to 15 years ago, now dated compared to 787's, 350's and A330neo's could be possible, but not such a large beast of the A380.

I personally feel the A380 is on the a poor trajectory, less than 1/4 of the frames off lease will find 2nd homes.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:55 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
ScottB wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Right now it seems like only HiFly is even interested in using used A380s, and even then they only need a handful at most.


Right now it seems like HiFly is interested in operating a single A380 under very favorable commercial terms for HiFly. It's obvious (to me, at least) HiFly's A380 operation is intended by Airbus to prop up the secondhand market (and consequently, demand for high-profit spares) for the type. It doesn't work because pretty much any operator for whom the A380 could remotely make commercial sense understands there's a special relationship between HiFly and Airbus.

JayinKitsap wrote:
What a great opportunity, like Tower Air back long ago. Equip 2 dozen A380s with 600+ all economy seats and fly leisure routes to exotic places are rock bottom prices. Not sure if anyone can pull this off.


Tower Air was a disaster and went out of business. Good luck with two dozen A380s when the next coronavirus or similar shock hits.


I know that it was a total disaster. Trying the same thing today with the A380 is an impossible dream (and an accountant's nightmare), a widebody startup using A330ceo's and or 772ER's or similar excellent planes from 10 to 15 years ago, now dated compared to 787's, 350's and A330neo's could be possible, but not such a large beast of the A380.

I personally feel the A380 is on the a poor trajectory, less than 1/4 of the frames off lease will find 2nd homes.


What about 763's?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:28 am

1989worstyear wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
ScottB wrote:

Right now it seems like HiFly is interested in operating a single A380 under very favorable commercial terms for HiFly. It's obvious (to me, at least) HiFly's A380 operation is intended by Airbus to prop up the secondhand market (and consequently, demand for high-profit spares) for the type. It doesn't work because pretty much any operator for whom the A380 could remotely make commercial sense understands there's a special relationship between HiFly and Airbus.



Tower Air was a disaster and went out of business. Good luck with two dozen A380s when the next coronavirus or similar shock hits.


I know that it was a total disaster. Trying the same thing today with the A380 is an impossible dream (and an accountant's nightmare), a widebody startup using A330ceo's and or 772ER's or similar excellent planes from 10 to 15 years ago, now dated compared to 787's, 350's and A330neo's could be possible, but not such a large beast of the A380.

I personally feel the A380 is on the a poor trajectory, less than 1/4 of the frames off lease will find 2nd homes.


What about 763's?


Their demand for freighter conversions has raised their prices, so its harder to get a great deal. The basic 772, 772ER, and 773 are not likely to ever be converted, the 77W will but it is difficult because of the light floor beams. So they are harder to find a suitable 2nd home - hence better deals.
 
moa999
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:49 am

ScottB wrote:
Right now it seems like HiFly is interested in operating a single A380 under very favorable commercial terms for HiFly. It's obvious (to me, at least) HiFly's A380 operation is intended by Airbus to prop up the secondhand market (and consequently, demand for high-profit spares) for the type.


HiFly may have the world's best 2nd hand deal, but even they can't be happy with the low utilisation of the aircraft.

Just can't see them needing another.

They had issues operating for Norwegian. The supposed Summer customer disappeared and it's spent more time in the ground than a child's toy plane.

The cerification on the Koito Business seats on the ex-SQ aircraft also expires in late-2021, so that's an expensive refit needed.
 
GatorClark
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:57 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


I think I can say with almost absolute certainty that out of this list, DL would be the very last to even consider another quad jet. I think we stand a better chance of seeing them buying new 747-8 frames than an A380. And we all know the pax 747 line has already been shut down.
 
ScottB
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:25 pm

moa999 wrote:
HiFly may have the world's best 2nd hand deal, but even they can't be happy with the low utilisation of the aircraft.


Rumor has it they're only paying for the time the plane spends in the air so utilization is more an issue for the lessor. Keeping the crews current might be an issue if the plane is spending a lot of time on the ground, though.
 
inkjet7
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:26 pm

Jetty wrote:
Not even only the entire AF fleet, KL’s fleet factors in as well: AF having it’s A380’s replaced by more A350’s allows KL’s fleet to grow as there’s an agreement with pilot unions about the widebody balance between the companies.


Only AF decided to get just ten extra A350 to replace ten A380.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:10 pm

F-HPJA, F-HPJC, F-HPJE, F-HPJF and F-HPJG are scheduled to ferry to Teruel in the coming weeks.
4 of the frames have been parked in CDG since mid March while F-HPJC has been in AUH since February for overhaul.
mercure f-wtcc
 
IWMBH
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:24 pm

mercure1 wrote:
F-HPJA, F-HPJC, F-HPJE, F-HPJF and F-HPJG are scheduled to ferry to Teruel in the coming weeks.
4 of the frames have been parked in CDG since mid March while F-HPJC has been in AUH since February for overhaul.


These birds are going to be Coke cans in no time.
 
EddieDude
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:16 pm

mercure1 wrote:
F-HPJA, F-HPJC, F-HPJE, F-HPJF and F-HPJG are scheduled to ferry to Teruel in the coming weeks.
4 of the frames have been parked in CDG since mid March while F-HPJC has been in AUH since February for overhaul.

I would imagine that the A380 will not fly for AF on a regular commercial schedule anymore. However, I have read speculation here on a.net that a few frames (for example those four parked at CDG) might still operate once things start getting back to normal. Any official information on this?
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
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Springbok743
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:40 pm

GatorClark wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


I think I can say with almost absolute certainty that out of this list, DL would be the very last to even consider another quad jet. I think we stand a better chance of seeing them buying new 747-8 frames than an A380. And we all know the pax 747 line has already been shut down.


I agree, North America is done with quad jets, there is so much spread out, that you could be flying to, that point to point should probably be transitioned away from.
May I suggest Iran Air will finally buy some A380s again? :D
 
blueflyer
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Re: Air France retires first A380; flown to Malta, Dresden, Knock

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:01 am

mercure1 wrote:
F-HPJA, F-HPJC, F-HPJE, F-HPJF and F-HPJG are scheduled to ferry to Teruel in the coming weeks.
4 of the frames have been parked in CDG since mid March while F-HPJC has been in AUH since February for overhaul.

-JC was flown to LDE today. Change of plan or removing cabin items before heading for TEV?
 
TC957
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:30 am

Why bother with the expenses of overhauling HPJC in AUH for it only to be sent to storage and not flown in service again ?
 
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flee
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:29 am

TC957 wrote:
Why bother with the expenses of overhauling HPJC in AUH for it only to be sent to storage and not flown in service again ?

Most likely to comply with the terms of the lease agreement.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:36 am

My speculation: A380 will not be flown in scheduled revenue service again. The conditions it requires are quite narrow. These conditions will not occur for 5 years to come. Even if there is a vaccine. It’s gone.

The prevailing requirement will be the A380’s nemesis, trip cost. It is about minimizing losses and keeping a skeleton network at minimum cost in the coming years.
 
smartplane
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:41 am

flee wrote:
TC957 wrote:
Why bother with the expenses of overhauling HPJC in AUH for it only to be sent to storage and not flown in service again ?

Most likely to comply with the terms of the lease agreement.

When it's unlikely an aircraft will find a new home, the lessee will try to mitigate end of lease costs / early termination clauses by leasing new aircraft from the same lessor. Even if the lessee doesn't want to lease new aircraft, usually the lessor prefers cash in hand, rather than have the EOL work undertaken, with no matching increase in the value of the aircraft.

The fact the work is being done suggests the lease termination isn't amicable, although the work may have been contracted before the decision to retire the A380 was made, so cheaper to complete than cancel.
 
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flee
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:55 am

LCDFlight wrote:
My speculation: A380 will not be flown in scheduled revenue service again. The conditions it requires are quite narrow. These conditions will not occur for 5 years to come. Even if there is a vaccine. It’s gone.

The prevailing requirement will be the A380’s nemesis, trip cost. It is about minimizing losses and keeping a skeleton network at minimum cost in the coming years.

These are interesting times and the whole airline industry will have to rapidly adjust. Carrying fewer pax due to social distancing may free up more payload capability in the cargo hold.

We expect to see fewer routes and fewer flights than 2019 for this year. So freight space may still be in limited supply - therefore total revenue per flight may still be pretty good as fewer pax and more freight will still make economic sense. Add to the fact that jet fuel prices will be very low and the economics of flying will still be acceptable (if airlines did not hedge their 2020 fuel requirements too heavily). So, all those old gas guzzling aircraft (especially owned and paid up) may still have good economic lives left in them.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:00 pm

flee wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
My speculation: A380 will not be flown in scheduled revenue service again. The conditions it requires are quite narrow. These conditions will not occur for 5 years to come. Even if there is a vaccine. It’s gone.

The prevailing requirement will be the A380’s nemesis, trip cost. It is about minimizing losses and keeping a skeleton network at minimum cost in the coming years.

These are interesting times and the whole airline industry will have to rapidly adjust. Carrying fewer pax due to social distancing may free up more payload capability in the cargo hold.

We expect to see fewer routes and fewer flights than 2019 for this year. So freight space may still be in limited supply - therefore total revenue per flight may still be pretty good as fewer pax and more freight will still make economic sense. Add to the fact that jet fuel prices will be very low and the economics of flying will still be acceptable (if airlines did not hedge their 2020 fuel requirements too heavily). So, all those old gas guzzling aircraft (especially owned and paid up) may still have good economic lives left in them.


Even then 777s/787s/A350 will be better options. The A380 doesn’t have an appreciably larger cargo volume (it is smaller than the 77W/A35K/78J, and only 2 LD3 positions greater than the A359 and 789), and will still be carrying more passengers and their bags in the hold (assuming equivalent load factors). The 777/787/A350 all have great payload range too, which of course like the A380 would also be improved due to fewer pax.

The only plus for the A380 would be if traffic recovers but social distancing on planes is still rigorously enforced worldwide, because it’s larger cabin will allow for more passengers.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:16 pm

GatorClark wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


I think I can say with almost absolute certainty that out of this list, DL would be the very last to even consider another quad jet. I think we stand a better chance of seeing them buying new 747-8 frames than an A380. And we all know the pax 747 line has already been shut down.

I do not think these frames will find a home. It will be until 2022 or 2023 for a market to support the cost per seat and cost per flight the A380 imposses.

DL is shrinking. They cannot support every partner.

HiFly won't accept more.
Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: AF retired its first A380

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:41 pm

lightsaber wrote:
GatorClark wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It will be interesting to see where these frames will end up.
BA or EK? Or Hifly? NH? CZ? Tui? Corsair? DL? VS (JFK-LHR)? NH? A new operator?
I doubt that it will be scrapped, a 10 year old machine.


I think I can say with almost absolute certainty that out of this list, DL would be the very last to even consider another quad jet. I think we stand a better chance of seeing them buying new 747-8 frames than an A380. And we all know the pax 747 line has already been shut down.

I do not think these frames will find a home. It will be until 2022 or 2023 for a market to support the cost per seat and cost per flight the A380 imposses.

DL is shrinking. They cannot support every partner.

HiFly won't accept more.
Lightsaber



We will have to see about this.

If we consider the current optimistic views that we'll have a vaccine or a working cure in 12-18 months, yes.

The big Ebola outbreak of 2013 was resolved through deaths and eradication, a working vaccine was not found until 5 years later.
I may also add that Ebola is not a novel virus as it has been studied since the 1970's.

In fact, in the 6 months since this outbreak started, we are still at square 1. False hopes have come and gone and more will come and go, slowing down our adaptiveness.
In 6 months we may still be where we are today.
So a new reality where people have to be seated on aircraft at least 6 feet apart or in individual cabins is just as likely an outcome.

To achieve economic viability of in-flight distancing, we need several ingredients:
-Cheap oil - Done
-Aircraft with floor space to match the demand - ??
-A demand base that is willing to pay enough to cover the costs.

The A380 may be done or it may become the new norm.


Image

https://www.emirates.com/english/experi ... rst-class/
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:19 pm

EK will be the one to watch on the A380. If they decide to buy every available frame coming off lease the A380 will serve for decades.
If they just keep their own frames operating, the A380 will soldier on for a decade or more.
If EK, reduces their A380 fleet to the newest 60, those 60 may be the only A380's flying a decade from now.

There will be less than 100 A380's flying 3 years from now most likely.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:32 pm

I wonder if at some point the declining number of A380's AF or other operators except EK will just become too small to be worth keeping as a sub-fleet and send to eventual scrapping.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:46 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I wonder if at some point the declining number of A380's AF or other operators except EK will just become too small to be worth keeping as a sub-fleet and send to eventual scrapping.

In this scenario, as posters above hypothesize, EK has opportunity to become scrapping-beneficiary-in-chief, and maybe turns a "master scrapper" themselves -- buying every available A380 at scrap metal (with a small plus) value, as no-one, except A380 operators, will pay good money for engines, gears, etc.
As they operate planes with both engine types, they could make use of every frame out there.
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
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mercure1
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:00 pm

I believe its likely you will not see A380 flying at AF any longer.

Per comments made by Ben Smith yesterday in meeting with French Senate, he stated AFKL will accelerate restructuring program which was originally planned to take 5-years, now will be performed in 2 years.
As part of this he made mention priorities were restructuring French domestic network, fleet simplification, deciding how HOP and Transavia fit in, and dealing with inevitable social impacts.
mercure f-wtcc
 
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mercure1
Posts: 4884
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:07 pm

Per stock market announcement today,

"A380 aircraft will probably be released early. The decisions and the timetable will be finalized by the end of April."

https://www.boursedirect.fr/fr/actualit ... af985224b4

Related -

> A340s will not return.
> A350 deliveries - aircraft due in June will be accepted, while timeline for next 3 frames not defined yet
> 787 next one due in June but maybe delayed due Boeing factory operation concerns
> A220 18-24 month roadmap unchanged
> HOP fleet to be further reduced.
mercure f-wtcc
 
EddieDude
Posts: 7048
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:11 pm

Au revoir son altesse A380! :(
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
ScottB
Posts: 7111
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Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:45 pm

mercure1 wrote:
F-HPJC has been in AUH since February for overhaul.


TC957 wrote:
Why bother with the expenses of overhauling HPJC in AUH for it only to be sent to storage and not flown in service again ?


If I had to guess, the decision to undertake the overhaul was taken (and contracts were signed) before the full scope of the crisis became apparent -- since the aircraft had been at AUH since February. And once you've gotten to a certain point in the overhaul, you might as well finish it since you're going to have to expend a bunch of labor putting everything back together again.

IWMBH wrote:
These birds are going to be Coke cans in no time.


Might be tough to make Coke cans out of the GLARE (and yes, I know the aluminum used for aircraft isn't suitable for beverage cans).

JayinKitsap wrote:
EK will be the one to watch on the A380.


I think there are very valid doubts about whether EK survives. Their sovereign doesn't have unlimited resources and ongoing border closures are a very severe threat to their business model.
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