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TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:19 am

Obzerva wrote:
Before we get in to predictions for 2020 (which I'm assuming we'll do in the Jan thread) - how did everyone go with their 2019 predictions?

Jan '19 thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411749 if anyone needs a reminder


My predictions turned out mixed.

Predictions:
International won't happen in 2019 due to CIQ space constraints
JQ ADL to increase to daily
TT to launch SYD
VA PER to increase to daily for peak season
Remote chance of QF seasonal PER if they launch more ultra long haul routes from PER


The first was correct, and I predict international will happen at HBA by the end of 2020.
Although JQ didn't increase HBA-ADL to daily, they did increase it from three- to four-weekly. This city pair has the highest number of connecting passengers nationally, and a recent pay-walled article https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/hobart-airports-busiest-week-in-more-than-six-decades-marked-by-arrival-from-north-pole/news-story/d1c5649f2cec43a6257aefc6be158397&ved=2ahUKEwiLyanru9fmAhVW6nMBHUG-AqUQFjAAegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw1-ca4hDmvfrVqhVtltg8C-&ampcf=1 quoted load factors over 90 per cent — the usual caveat about unknown yield applies of course.
TT commencing HBA-SYD was a hail Mary play that didn't eventuate, but I predict the VA group will add an extra daily by the end of 2020.
VA's HBA-PER didn't quite get to daily, although extra services were added for peak season and up to six weekly services are scheduled during Easter 2020. HBA-PER surviving while CBR-PER and OOL-PER were cut is significant.
QF didn't launch more long-haul routes from PER so my fifth prediction became moot.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:22 am

lessredtape wrote:
looking at flights to NAN due to cyclone there. Almost everything is canc today, except VA, but FJ have a red eye tomorrow night BNE/NAN & still selling & VA have an A332 BNE/NAN early tomorrow.

Can an A332 land on cross runway at NAN ? which is 2136m ?


Yes an A332 can land on a runway of that length
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lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:25 am

qf789 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
looking at flights to NAN due to cyclone there. Almost everything is canc today, except VA, but FJ have a red eye tomorrow night BNE/NAN & still selling & VA have an A332 BNE/NAN early tomorrow.

Can an A332 land on cross runway at NAN ? which is 2136m ?


Yes an A332 can land on a runway of that length
but that runway ? Think there are mts at one end
 
lessredtape
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:29 am

TasFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
Before we get in to predictions for 2020 (which I'm assuming we'll do in the Jan thread) - how did everyone go with their 2019 predictions?

Jan '19 thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411749 if anyone needs a reminder


My predictions turned out mixed.

Predictions:
International won't happen in 2019 due to CIQ space constraints
JQ ADL to increase to daily
TT to launch SYD
VA PER to increase to daily for peak season
Remote chance of QF seasonal PER if they launch more ultra long haul routes from PER


The first was correct, and I predict international will happen at HBA by the end of 2020.
Although JQ didn't increase HBA-ADL to daily, they did increase it from three- to four-weekly. This city pair has the highest number of connecting passengers nationally, and a recent pay-walled article https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/hobart-airports-busiest-week-in-more-than-six-decades-marked-by-arrival-from-north-pole/news-story/d1c5649f2cec43a6257aefc6be158397&ved=2ahUKEwiLyanru9fmAhVW6nMBHUG-AqUQFjAAegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw1-ca4hDmvfrVqhVtltg8C-&ampcf=1 quoted load factors over 90 per cent — the usual caveat about unknown yield applies of course.
TT commencing HBA-SYD was a hail Mary play that didn't eventuate, but I predict the VA group will add an extra daily by the end of 2020.
VA's HBA-PER didn't quite get to daily, although extra services were added for peak season and up to six weekly services are scheduled during Easter 2020. HBA-PER surviving while CBR-PER and OOL-PER were cut is significant.
QF didn't launch more long-haul routes from PER so my fifth prediction became moot.
HBA to where? AKL, CHC or NAN ?

Remember FJ tried OOL & CBR to NAN.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:36 am

lessredtape wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
Before we get in to predictions for 2020 (which I'm assuming we'll do in the Jan thread) - how did everyone go with their 2019 predictions?

Jan '19 thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411749 if anyone needs a reminder


My predictions turned out mixed.

Predictions:
International won't happen in 2019 due to CIQ space constraints
JQ ADL to increase to daily
TT to launch SYD
VA PER to increase to daily for peak season
Remote chance of QF seasonal PER if they launch more ultra long haul routes from PER


The first was correct, and I predict international will happen at HBA by the end of 2020.
Although JQ didn't increase HBA-ADL to daily, they did increase it from three- to four-weekly. This city pair has the highest number of connecting passengers nationally, and a recent pay-walled article https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/hobart-airports-busiest-week-in-more-than-six-decades-marked-by-arrival-from-north-pole/news-story/d1c5649f2cec43a6257aefc6be158397&ved=2ahUKEwiLyanru9fmAhVW6nMBHUG-AqUQFjAAegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw1-ca4hDmvfrVqhVtltg8C-&ampcf=1 quoted load factors over 90 per cent — the usual caveat about unknown yield applies of course.
TT commencing HBA-SYD was a hail Mary play that didn't eventuate, but I predict the VA group will add an extra daily by the end of 2020.
VA's HBA-PER didn't quite get to daily, although extra services were added for peak season and up to six weekly services are scheduled during Easter 2020. HBA-PER surviving while CBR-PER and OOL-PER were cut is significant.
QF didn't launch more long-haul routes from PER so my fifth prediction became moot.
HBA to where? AKL, CHC or NAN ?

Remember FJ tried OOL & CBR to NAN.


I think HBA’s best two chances for international would be:
NZ to AKL - an A320 that’s timed to depart / arrive AKL with NZ’s long haul bank of flights. Even at just 3 days a week.
JQ to anywhere in New Zealand really.

If the seemingly forgotten talks of Australia and New Zealand being treated as passport and customs free travel ever lead to anything and flights being treated as domestic, I’m sure it would have happened by now.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:50 am

EK413 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
looking at flights to NAN due to cyclone there. Almost everything is canc today, except VA, but FJ have a red eye tomorrow night BNE/NAN & still selling & VA have an A332 BNE/NAN early tomorrow.

Can an A332 land on cross runway at NAN ? which is 2136m ?


Explains the 2 x FJ A330 & A350 on South East stands


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Image

Credit @timbowrey26

Due to #CycloneSarai skirting the island of #Fiji all #FijiAirways aircraft remain stuck and unable to fly home. It gives us a great opportunity to photograph their brand new A350 alongside their A330!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
jupiter2
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Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2001 11:30 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:17 am

EK413 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
looking at flights to NAN due to cyclone there. Almost everything is canc today, except VA, but FJ have a red eye tomorrow night BNE/NAN & still selling & VA have an A332 BNE/NAN early tomorrow.

Can an A332 land on cross runway at NAN ? which is 2136m ?


Explains the 2 x FJ A330 & A350 on South East stands


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Image

Credit @timbowrey26

Due to #CycloneSarai skirting the island of #Fiji all #FijiAirways aircraft remain stuck and unable to fly home. It gives us a great opportunity to photograph their brand new A350 alongside their A330!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


This is in SYD if anybody is wondering and those shots were taken airside.
 
qantas747
Posts: 378
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2000 12:51 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:40 pm

oskarclare wrote:
QF/JQ applied for additional 675 seats on DPS route from 28/4. Believe these new services will operate from BNE as additional 2x weekly flights, bringing JQ BNE-DPS to 9x weekly. Good to see them slowly expanding on route, BNE-DPS has exploded over past year. These new flights now bookable through JQ website.

https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/f ... onesia.pdf
https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/ ... FY2019.pdf (Pg28)


Interesting its just an extra 2 x weekly at this stage
I wonder if this is a prelude to A321s going onto the route double daily sometime in the future.

3020 seats divided by 14 is 215 per flight..

I wonder if J sells well for JQ on this route.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3892
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:38 pm

qantas747 wrote:
oskarclare wrote:
QF/JQ applied for additional 675 seats on DPS route from 28/4. Believe these new services will operate from BNE as additional 2x weekly flights, bringing JQ BNE-DPS to 9x weekly. Good to see them slowly expanding on route, BNE-DPS has exploded over past year. These new flights now bookable through JQ website.

https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/f ... onesia.pdf
https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/ ... FY2019.pdf (Pg28)


Interesting its just an extra 2 x weekly at this stage
I wonder if this is a prelude to A321s going onto the route double daily sometime in the future.

3020 seats divided by 14 is 215 per flight..

I wonder if J sells well for JQ on this route.


215 on an a321NEO could include small J cabin maybe 2x rows (8 seats) for these International Flights.

NZ has 214 Y seats but this is with some rows at 34/35” pitch, D7 has 234 Y on there a321NEO.
 
marcogr12
Posts: 459
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:05 pm

Sorry for the question,but how come Darwin has been left out of the big 3, i.e. NZ,QF/JQ,VA when it comes to connections to big New Zealand cities,esp. AKL, I havent seen one single flight,not even seasonal one..Also, no flights to Hobart!What gives?
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
Flyerqf
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:52 pm

Noticed in the QF schedules a change to USA operations from 30JUN20.

QF7/8 SYD-DFW-SYD goes daily - currently doesn’t operate Tuesdays.

QF95/96 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from 2pw to 1pw. Looks like this is just to rotate a 787 through maintenance.

QF93/94 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from Daily 388 equipment to 6pw and 789 1pw.

Overall MEL-LAX frequency is down from 9pw to 8 pw to cover the extra day of DFW.

It also looks like A380 line maintenance currently undertaken at SYD will be undertaken at LAX. With the 388 operating on QF93 Monday but the return QF94 operated by a 789. On Wednesday, QF93 will be operated by a 789 and the return QF94 by a 388. This gives slightly more ground time of the 388 at LAX than currently the 388 spends at SYD on Tuesdays and Wednesdays between DFW rotations.
 
Obzerva
Posts: 495
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:23 am

Flyerqf wrote:
Noticed in the QF schedules a change to USA operations from 30JUN20.

QF7/8 SYD-DFW-SYD goes daily - currently doesn’t operate Tuesdays.

QF95/96 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from 2pw to 1pw. Looks like this is just to rotate a 787 through maintenance.

QF93/94 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from Daily 388 equipment to 6pw and 789 1pw.

Overall MEL-LAX frequency is down from 9pw to 8 pw to cover the extra day of DFW.

It also looks like A380 line maintenance currently undertaken at SYD will be undertaken at LAX. With the 388 operating on QF93 Monday but the return QF94 operated by a 789. On Wednesday, QF93 will be operated by a 789 and the return QF94 by a 388. This gives slightly more ground time of the 388 at LAX than currently the 388 spends at SYD on Tuesdays and Wednesdays between DFW rotations.


Wonder if the MEL-LAX reductions in both frequency and capacity are a pre cursor to the often rumoured AA launch of MEL.
 
kriskim
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:34 am

Obzerva wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
Noticed in the QF schedules a change to USA operations from 30JUN20.

QF7/8 SYD-DFW-SYD goes daily - currently doesn’t operate Tuesdays.

QF95/96 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from 2pw to 1pw. Looks like this is just to rotate a 787 through maintenance.

QF93/94 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from Daily 388 equipment to 6pw and 789 1pw.

Overall MEL-LAX frequency is down from 9pw to 8 pw to cover the extra day of DFW.

It also looks like A380 line maintenance currently undertaken at SYD will be undertaken at LAX. With the 388 operating on QF93 Monday but the return QF94 operated by a 789. On Wednesday, QF93 will be operated by a 789 and the return QF94 by a 388. This gives slightly more ground time of the 388 at LAX than currently the 388 spends at SYD on Tuesdays and Wednesdays between DFW rotations.


Wonder if the MEL-LAX reductions in both frequency and capacity are a pre cursor to the often rumoured AA launch of MEL.


And hopefully MEL-DFW
A world built upon connectivity.
 
Flyerqf
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:24 am

With only 3 more QF 789 deliveries to come, 1 has already been announced as going to SCL, leaving 2 to replace 3 x 744 allocated to JNB (1) and HND (2).

It’s likely that the 2 will go to HND (or DFW if QF can get around the A380 restrictions at HND).

That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs as the only spare and likely to go to JNB. However for it to only use 1 aircraft, it would need to be able to pair up with QF1, with a SYD-JNB-SYD-LHR pattern. This would require a slight schedule adjustment for the JNB flight.

Would Qantas have flexibility to change the timings of their JNB flights QF63/64, or is JNB slot restrictive?

JNB is likely to be the last 744 route, with the A380 refurbs needing to be complete before the 744 can be retired.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:27 am

Flyerqf wrote:
That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs .

The refurbs seem to be taking 2 months each.
They'll have to do two at a time (like the last two, one in DRS, one in AUH) if everything is to be refurbed by end 2020, plus 3 more need a repaint.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 191
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:36 am

Obzerva wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:

My predictions turned out mixed.



The first was correct, and I predict international will happen at HBA by the end of 2020.
Although JQ didn't increase HBA-ADL to daily, they did increase it from three- to four-weekly. This city pair has the highest number of connecting passengers nationally, and a recent pay-walled article https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/hobart-airports-busiest-week-in-more-than-six-decades-marked-by-arrival-from-north-pole/news-story/d1c5649f2cec43a6257aefc6be158397&ved=2ahUKEwiLyanru9fmAhVW6nMBHUG-AqUQFjAAegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw1-ca4hDmvfrVqhVtltg8C-&ampcf=1 quoted load factors over 90 per cent — the usual caveat about unknown yield applies of course.
TT commencing HBA-SYD was a hail Mary play that didn't eventuate, but I predict the VA group will add an extra daily by the end of 2020.
VA's HBA-PER didn't quite get to daily, although extra services were added for peak season and up to six weekly services are scheduled during Easter 2020. HBA-PER surviving while CBR-PER and OOL-PER were cut is significant.
QF didn't launch more long-haul routes from PER so my fifth prediction became moot.
HBA to where? AKL, CHC or NAN ?

Remember FJ tried OOL & CBR to NAN.


I think HBA’s best two chances for international would be:
NZ to AKL - an A320 that’s timed to depart / arrive AKL with NZ’s long haul bank of flights. Even at just 3 days a week.
JQ to anywhere in New Zealand really.

If the seemingly forgotten talks of Australia and New Zealand being treated as passport and customs free travel ever lead to anything and flights being treated as domestic, I’m sure it would have happened by now.


I see a few options:

1. NZ to AKL as above; while HBA is now a destination in its own right, the connecting passengers would be useful top-up and represent a competitive advantage for NZ
2. VA to AKL; in a similar vein to their NTL-AKL service
3. JQ to New Zealand or Asia (growth in tourists from China has been massive since President Xi's visit to HBA) using their new 321LR
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 613
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:40 am

TasFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
HBA to where? AKL, CHC or NAN ?

Remember FJ tried OOL & CBR to NAN.


I think HBA’s best two chances for international would be:
NZ to AKL - an A320 that’s timed to depart / arrive AKL with NZ’s long haul bank of flights. Even at just 3 days a week.
JQ to anywhere in New Zealand really.

If the seemingly forgotten talks of Australia and New Zealand being treated as passport and customs free travel ever lead to anything and flights being treated as domestic, I’m sure it would have happened by now.


I see a few options:

1. NZ to AKL as above; while HBA is now a destination in its own right, the connecting passengers would be useful top-up and represent a competitive advantage for NZ
2. VA to AKL; in a similar vein to their NTL-AKL service
3. JQ to New Zealand or Asia (growth in tourists from China has been massive since President Xi's visit to HBA) using their new 321LR


VA or JQ from HBA to AKL (either seasonally or a few times a week) would strongly likely be subsidised on one (or both ends) of the route from the respective local or provincial/state governments, considering it's a point to point route for both carriers, and they would have to rely heavily on O&D, like VA's NTL-AKL seasonal service.

NZ I can see them going seasonal initially at least without the subsidy, considering their home hub at AKL. It would likely be timed to connect into the long haul bank to/from the Americas and Asia.
 
Flyerqf
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:01 am

moa999 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs .

The refurbs seem to be taking 2 months each.
They'll have to do two at a time (like the last two, one in DRS, one in AUH) if everything is to be refurbed by end 2020, plus 3 more need a repaint.


Outside peak times, there is always 1 out of rotation for maintenance, but currently there are 2 planned out of rotation next year. So it’s likely they will be doing 2 at a time like they did with the latest 2 to be completed.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:39 am

Flyerqf wrote:
Noticed in the QF schedules a change to USA operations from 30JUN20.

QF7/8 SYD-DFW-SYD goes daily - currently doesn’t operate Tuesdays.

QF95/96 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from 2pw to 1pw. Looks like this is just to rotate a 787 through maintenance.

QF93/94 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from Daily 388 equipment to 6pw and 789 1pw.

Overall MEL-LAX frequency is down from 9pw to 8 pw to cover the extra day of DFW.

It also looks like A380 line maintenance currently undertaken at SYD will be undertaken at LAX. With the 388 operating on QF93 Monday but the return QF94 operated by a 789. On Wednesday, QF93 will be operated by a 789 and the return QF94 by a 388. This gives slightly more ground time of the 388 at LAX than currently the 388 spends at SYD on Tuesdays and Wednesdays between DFW rotations.


Makes sense as QF will also be handing the lease back on their Jetbase back to SACL next year, which whilst understandably is flight sad in a nostalgic way, as to me seeing all those QF heavies parked there is such a part of Mascot and SYD. Be nice to see them build some hangers perhaps down where blue emu is?
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:55 am

Surely though they'd build the new hangers before booting QF out.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7517
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:27 am

Obzerva wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
Noticed in the QF schedules a change to USA operations from 30JUN20.

QF7/8 SYD-DFW-SYD goes daily - currently doesn’t operate Tuesdays.

QF95/96 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from 2pw to 1pw. Looks like this is just to rotate a 787 through maintenance.

QF93/94 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from Daily 388 equipment to 6pw and 789 1pw.

Overall MEL-LAX frequency is down from 9pw to 8 pw to cover the extra day of DFW.

It also looks like A380 line maintenance currently undertaken at SYD will be undertaken at LAX. With the 388 operating on QF93 Monday but the return QF94 operated by a 789. On Wednesday, QF93 will be operated by a 789 and the return QF94 by a 388. This gives slightly more ground time of the 388 at LAX than currently the 388 spends at SYD on Tuesdays and Wednesdays between DFW rotations.


Wonder if the MEL-LAX reductions in both frequency and capacity are a pre cursor to the often rumoured AA launch of MEL.


I would think something like QF would reduce MEL-LAX to daily A380 moving the 789 to additional SFO-MEL. I’d see AA on MEL-LAX 5-7 weekly, possibly seasonal initially.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 613
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:36 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
Noticed in the QF schedules a change to USA operations from 30JUN20.

QF7/8 SYD-DFW-SYD goes daily - currently doesn’t operate Tuesdays.

QF95/96 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from 2pw to 1pw. Looks like this is just to rotate a 787 through maintenance.

QF93/94 MEL-LAX-MEL goes from Daily 388 equipment to 6pw and 789 1pw.

Overall MEL-LAX frequency is down from 9pw to 8 pw to cover the extra day of DFW.

It also looks like A380 line maintenance currently undertaken at SYD will be undertaken at LAX. With the 388 operating on QF93 Monday but the return QF94 operated by a 789. On Wednesday, QF93 will be operated by a 789 and the return QF94 by a 388. This gives slightly more ground time of the 388 at LAX than currently the 388 spends at SYD on Tuesdays and Wednesdays between DFW rotations.


Wonder if the MEL-LAX reductions in both frequency and capacity are a pre cursor to the often rumoured AA launch of MEL.


I would think something like QF would reduce MEL-LAX to daily A380 moving the 789 to additional SFO-MEL. I’d see AA on MEL-LAX 5-7 weekly, possibly seasonal initially.


Wouldn't any AA expansion be in the medium term considering AA's 2nd trance of Pacific announcements in conjunction with the QF JV was seasonal DFW-AKL and LAX-CHC.

I can't see any further AA Australian expansion in the short term considering the NZ announcements and the yields on the AU-USA routes in general are currently the lowest it's been in a while, which can be backed to an extent with the yearly UA seasonal cutbacks to Australia.
 
ZK-NBT
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Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:43 am

SCFlyer wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Obzerva wrote:

Wonder if the MEL-LAX reductions in both frequency and capacity are a pre cursor to the often rumoured AA launch of MEL.


I would think something like QF would reduce MEL-LAX to daily A380 moving the 789 to additional SFO-MEL. I’d see AA on MEL-LAX 5-7 weekly, possibly seasonal initially.


Wouldn't any AA expansion be in the medium term considering AA's 2nd trance of Pacific announcements in conjunction with the QF JV was seasonal DFW-AKL and LAX-CHC.

I can't see any further AA Australian expansion in the short term considering the NZ announcements and the yields on the AU-USA routes in general are currently the lowest it's been in a while, which can be backed to an extent with the yearly UA seasonal cutbacks to Australia.


Not sure but additional Australia flying was mentioned, the NZ routes are actual new routes where as LAX-MEL would be a transfer of some QF capacity and as I said likely seasonal.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:09 am

lessredtape wrote:
LLSyd wrote:
How do you think Virgin as a business will handle the heavy maintenance checks on there 777 fleet next year and the trimming of flights to LA?

Especially Va1/Va2 that is dropping from a daily service to 5 flights a week?
hopeless. VA need to maintain daily from at least 2 cities to LAX & at same time every day.

BNE/LAX only opposition is QF. MEL/LAX has plenty


But they're turning a profit on their North American flights, finally, so obviously it's not too hopeless. Also... these are temporary heavy maintenance checks, so a temporary reduction during lower demand times. Qantas is doing the same, yet where's the criticism (not that it warrants any, either)?

Just relax and accept that sometimes airlines have to trade off certain elements of their service to attain longer term benefits via maintenance. VAappears to have found a sweetspot at lasat for its 77W fleet and North American services. Great! And as pointed out by another poster, until VA replaces the 330 and 77W with a single fleet type, you won't see the flexibility that you expect.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3892
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:17 am

SCFlyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:

I think HBA’s best two chances for international would be:
NZ to AKL - an A320 that’s timed to depart / arrive AKL with NZ’s long haul bank of flights. Even at just 3 days a week.
JQ to anywhere in New Zealand really.

If the seemingly forgotten talks of Australia and New Zealand being treated as passport and customs free travel ever lead to anything and flights being treated as domestic, I’m sure it would have happened by now.


I see a few options:

1. NZ to AKL as above; while HBA is now a destination in its own right, the connecting passengers would be useful top-up and represent a competitive advantage for NZ
2. VA to AKL; in a similar vein to their NTL-AKL service
3. JQ to New Zealand or Asia (growth in tourists from China has been massive since President Xi's visit to HBA) using their new 321LR


VA or JQ from HBA to AKL (either seasonally or a few times a week) would strongly likely be subsidised on one (or both ends) of the route from the respective local or provincial/state governments, considering it's a point to point route for both carriers, and they would have to rely heavily on O&D, like VA's NTL-AKL seasonal service.

NZ I can see them going seasonal initially at least without the subsidy, considering their home hub at AKL. It would likely be timed to connect into the long haul bank to/from the Americas and Asia.


HBA and CBR are both difficult, you almost want an 100 seater to develop the local market just no one really has anything in that class for the Tasman.

Assuming the F100s couldn’t do HBA-AKL, without to much ETOPS paper work being done etc
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:35 am

zkncj wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:

I see a few options:

1. NZ to AKL as above; while HBA is now a destination in its own right, the connecting passengers would be useful top-up and represent a competitive advantage for NZ
2. VA to AKL; in a similar vein to their NTL-AKL service
3. JQ to New Zealand or Asia (growth in tourists from China has been massive since President Xi's visit to HBA) using their new 321LR


VA or JQ from HBA to AKL (either seasonally or a few times a week) would strongly likely be subsidised on one (or both ends) of the route from the respective local or provincial/state governments, considering it's a point to point route for both carriers, and they would have to rely heavily on O&D, like VA's NTL-AKL seasonal service.

NZ I can see them going seasonal initially at least without the subsidy, considering their home hub at AKL. It would likely be timed to connect into the long haul bank to/from the Americas and Asia.


HBA and CBR are both difficult, you almost want an 100 seater to develop the local market just no one really has anything in that class for the Tasman.

Assuming the F100s couldn’t do HBA-AKL, without to much ETOPS paper work being done etc


F100's lack range. With HBA-AKL 160 nm longer than ADL-PER of which is already pushing their range. Also with what they actually burn in fuel a 737/A320 would be cheaper
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:39 am

zkncj wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:

I see a few options:

1. NZ to AKL as above; while HBA is now a destination in its own right, the connecting passengers would be useful top-up and represent a competitive advantage for NZ
2. VA to AKL; in a similar vein to their NTL-AKL service
3. JQ to New Zealand or Asia (growth in tourists from China has been massive since President Xi's visit to HBA) using their new 321LR


VA or JQ from HBA to AKL (either seasonally or a few times a week) would strongly likely be subsidised on one (or both ends) of the route from the respective local or provincial/state governments, considering it's a point to point route for both carriers, and they would have to rely heavily on O&D, like VA's NTL-AKL seasonal service.

NZ I can see them going seasonal initially at least without the subsidy, considering their home hub at AKL. It would likely be timed to connect into the long haul bank to/from the Americas and Asia.


HBA and CBR are both difficult, you almost want an 100 seater to develop the local market just no one really has anything in that class for the Tasman.

Assuming the F100s couldn’t do HBA-AKL, without to much ETOPS paper work being done etc


If the A320 is too hard to fill, I think there’s be some thoughts in Air NZ grabbing a couple of cheap A319s on lease, and then picking off a few regional locations, CBR, HBA, NTL, hell even TSV, MKY, ROK.
Start doing to the Australian east coast what KLM does to the UK.
Wouldn’t have to serve each location daily, but it’d soon work out what what was profitable and what wasn’t.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:36 am

Not an apples for apples comparison I'm afraid....
a) an awkward A319 subleet
b) 3 hour plus fights versus 1 hour AMS-UK
c) QLD regional population minimal compared to UK. Look at MIDT or PAX-IS numbers for reqgional QLD to NZ/USA/BUE- not worth it
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:45 am

Obzerva wrote:
zkncj wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

VA or JQ from HBA to AKL (either seasonally or a few times a week) would strongly likely be subsidised on one (or both ends) of the route from the respective local or provincial/state governments, considering it's a point to point route for both carriers, and they would have to rely heavily on O&D, like VA's NTL-AKL seasonal service.

NZ I can see them going seasonal initially at least without the subsidy, considering their home hub at AKL. It would likely be timed to connect into the long haul bank to/from the Americas and Asia.


HBA and CBR are both difficult, you almost want an 100 seater to develop the local market just no one really has anything in that class for the Tasman.

Assuming the F100s couldn’t do HBA-AKL, without to much ETOPS paper work being done etc


If the A320 is too hard to fill, I think there’s be some thoughts in Air NZ grabbing a couple of cheap A319s on lease, and then picking off a few regional locations, CBR, HBA, NTL, hell even TSV, MKY, ROK.
Start doing to the Australian east coast what KLM does to the UK.
Wouldn’t have to serve each location daily, but it’d soon work out what what was profitable and what wasn’t.


That’s pretty unlikely. The airline would know where they could potentially make money with an A320 rather than adding a sub fleet of A319s for several new routes and then dropping half of them. And none of those destinations would start more than 3 weekly and build from there.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:56 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
zkncj wrote:

HBA and CBR are both difficult, you almost want an 100 seater to develop the local market just no one really has anything in that class for the Tasman.

Assuming the F100s couldn’t do HBA-AKL, without to much ETOPS paper work being done etc


If the A320 is too hard to fill, I think there’s be some thoughts in Air NZ grabbing a couple of cheap A319s on lease, and then picking off a few regional locations, CBR, HBA, NTL, hell even TSV, MKY, ROK.
Start doing to the Australian east coast what KLM does to the UK.
Wouldn’t have to serve each location daily, but it’d soon work out what what was profitable and what wasn’t.


That’s pretty unlikely. The airline would know where they could potentially make money with an A320 rather than adding a sub fleet of A319s for several new routes and then dropping half of them. And none of those destinations would start more than 3 weekly and build from there.


Oh yeah realise unlikely, just a thought bubble.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:00 pm

The Boeing 717 has the range of 3,815 km. While the route of Auckland to Hobart is 2,422 km. Qantas could launch a service if they could equip their 717s with life rafts etc for over water flying.
The size of the 717 would be well suited for this route.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:18 pm

NZ516 wrote:
The Boeing 717 has the range of 3,815 km. While the route of Auckland to Hobart is 2,422 km. Qantas could launch a service if they could equip their 717s with life rafts etc for over water flying.
The size of the 717 would be well suited for this route.

Qantas could do this...but bearing in mind they don't even bother with ADL or PER direct flights to New Zealand, I think it pretty unlikely they'd be in a hurry to spend money refitting a 717 ( and inevitably increasing the weight of the aircraft) for a single flight once or twice a week
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:19 pm

Flyerqf wrote:
With only 3 more QF 789 deliveries to come, 1 has already been announced as going to SCL, leaving 2 to replace 3 x 744 allocated to JNB (1) and HND (2).

It’s likely that the 2 will go to HND (or DFW if QF can get around the A380 restrictions at HND).

That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs as the only spare and likely to go to JNB. However for it to only use 1 aircraft, it would need to be able to pair up with QF1, with a SYD-JNB-SYD-LHR pattern. This would require a slight schedule adjustment for the JNB flight.

Would Qantas have flexibility to change the timings of their JNB flights QF63/64, or is JNB slot restrictive?

JNB is likely to be the last 744 route, with the A380 refurbs needing to be complete before the 744 can be retired.


It will take more than one 787 to do it daily as currently the 747 SYD-SCL-SYD is 26 hours return. The JNB route is also 26 hours. At the moment Qantas has 6 747s in service they are very busy with the only significant downtime in HND of 12 hours. The 11 787s currently in service are fully utilized. So with only 3 more 787s coming they can only retire 3 747s unless they drop some more routes. The SYD YVR is daily 747 summer seasonal route they haven't announced what will replace it with they may have to wait for more 787s. Along with SCL starting soon with the 787 they also have BNE to ORD/SFO coming they will have to find a frame for. Most likely they will keep a few 747s for another 2 more years. And increase the 787 fleet to say 18 by 2022 to allow for a bit of growth.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:46 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
With only 3 more QF 789 deliveries to come, 1 has already been announced as going to SCL, leaving 2 to replace 3 x 744 allocated to JNB (1) and HND (2).

It’s likely that the 2 will go to HND (or DFW if QF can get around the A380 restrictions at HND).

That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs as the only spare and likely to go to JNB. However for it to only use 1 aircraft, it would need to be able to pair up with QF1, with a SYD-JNB-SYD-LHR pattern. This would require a slight schedule adjustment for the JNB flight.

Would Qantas have flexibility to change the timings of their JNB flights QF63/64, or is JNB slot restrictive?

JNB is likely to be the last 744 route, with the A380 refurbs needing to be complete before the 744 can be retired.


It will take more than one 787 to do it daily as currently the 747 SYD-SCL-SYD is 26 hours return. The JNB route is also 26 hours. At the moment Qantas has 6 747s in service they are very busy with the only significant downtime in HND of 12 hours. The 11 787s currently in service are fully utilized. So with only 3 more 787s coming they can only retire 3 747s unless they drop some more routes. The SYD YVR is daily 747 summer seasonal route they haven't announced what will replace it with they may have to wait for more 787s. Along with SCL starting soon with the 787 they also have BNE to ORD/SFO coming they will have to find a frame for. Most likely they will keep a few 747s for another 2 more years. And increase the 787 fleet to say 18 by 2022 to allow for a bit of growth.



The reason why SCL is only 1 frame is because of the pattern is flies. It will be SYD-SCL-SYD-SFO.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:53 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
With only 3 more QF 789 deliveries to come, 1 has already been announced as going to SCL, leaving 2 to replace 3 x 744 allocated to JNB (1) and HND (2).

It’s likely that the 2 will go to HND (or DFW if QF can get around the A380 restrictions at HND).

That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs as the only spare and likely to go to JNB. However for it to only use 1 aircraft, it would need to be able to pair up with QF1, with a SYD-JNB-SYD-LHR pattern. This would require a slight schedule adjustment for the JNB flight.

Would Qantas have flexibility to change the timings of their JNB flights QF63/64, or is JNB slot restrictive?

JNB is likely to be the last 744 route, with the A380 refurbs needing to be complete before the 744 can be retired.


It will take more than one 787 to do it daily as currently the 747 SYD-SCL-SYD is 26 hours return. The JNB route is also 26 hours. At the moment Qantas has 6 747s in service they are very busy with the only significant downtime in HND of 12 hours. The 11 787s currently in service are fully utilized. So with only 3 more 787s coming they can only retire 3 747s unless they drop some more routes. The SYD YVR is daily 747 summer seasonal route they haven't announced what will replace it with they may have to wait for more 787s. Along with SCL starting soon with the 787 they also have BNE to ORD/SFO coming they will have to find a frame for. Most likely they will keep a few 747s for another 2 more years. And increase the 787 fleet to say 18 by 2022 to allow for a bit of growth.



QF believe it or not have this sorted, I didn’t think so a few months ago either.
SCL needs 1 789 as it will tie in with SFO on a SYD-SFO-SYD-SCL-SYD-SFO rotation which will use 3 aircraft. At this time AKL will lose the 789.

JNB and HND are the last 744 routes needing 3 frames which we don’t no what will happen exactly, both could get the 789, though 1 may end up with an A380, QF want HND which would likely see DFW go 789 and the plan would be I think to add MEL-DFW 3 weekly at the expense of MEL/LAX second flight, possibly 3 days a week to start. YVR I’m picking won’t operate for a while, YVR is 3 weekly 744 in DEC/JAN June July.

BNE-SFO/ORD aircraft comes off the additional BNE-LAX meaning BNE-LAX is daily, currently 13 weekly.

There is also a HKG rotation with 789s which can go back to an A330 to free up a 789.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:31 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
With only 3 more QF 789 deliveries to come, 1 has already been announced as going to SCL, leaving 2 to replace 3 x 744 allocated to JNB (1) and HND (2).

It’s likely that the 2 will go to HND (or DFW if QF can get around the A380 restrictions at HND).

That leaves the A380 currently out of rotation due to refurbs as the only spare and likely to go to JNB. However for it to only use 1 aircraft, it would need to be able to pair up with QF1, with a SYD-JNB-SYD-LHR pattern. This would require a slight schedule adjustment for the JNB flight.

Would Qantas have flexibility to change the timings of their JNB flights QF63/64, or is JNB slot restrictive?

JNB is likely to be the last 744 route, with the A380 refurbs needing to be complete before the 744 can be retired.


It will take more than one 787 to do it daily as currently the 747 SYD-SCL-SYD is 26 hours return. The JNB route is also 26 hours. At the moment Qantas has 6 747s in service they are very busy with the only significant downtime in HND of 12 hours. The 11 787s currently in service are fully utilized. So with only 3 more 787s coming they can only retire 3 747s unless they drop some more routes. The SYD YVR is daily 747 summer seasonal route they haven't announced what will replace it with they may have to wait for more 787s. Along with SCL starting soon with the 787 they also have BNE to ORD/SFO coming they will have to find a frame for. Most likely they will keep a few 747s for another 2 more years. And increase the 787 fleet to say 18 by 2022 to allow for a bit of growth.



QF believe it or not have this sorted, I didn’t think so a few months ago either.
SCL needs 1 789 as it will tie in with SFO on a SYD-SFO-SYD-SCL-SYD-SFO rotation which will use 3 aircraft. At this time AKL will lose the 789.

JNB and HND are the last 744 routes needing 3 frames which we don’t no what will happen exactly, both could get the 789, though 1 may end up with an A380, QF want HND which would likely see DFW go 789 and the plan would be I think to add MEL-DFW 3 weekly at the expense of MEL/LAX second flight, possibly 3 days a week to start. YVR I’m picking won’t operate for a while, YVR is 3 weekly 744 in DEC/JAN June July.

BNE-SFO/ORD aircraft comes off the additional BNE-LAX meaning BNE-LAX is daily, currently 13 weekly.

There is also a HKG rotation with 789s which can go back to an A330 to free up a 789.


When no maintenance is taking place, HKG could go to A380 freeing up a 787 to operate YVR. However this would mean the end of the season QF17/18 extras from SYD to LAX.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:41 pm

If DFW gets the 789 daily with the last two frames Then both JNB and HND can be operated by the A380s taken from DFW, but not daily for JNB. Also with new slots in HND to reduce downtime to around 2-3 hours will benefit the schedule. While YVR is most likely to be dropped when the last 747s are retired.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:57 am

NZ516 wrote:
If DFW gets the 789 daily with the last two frames Then both JNB and HND can be operated by the A380s taken from DFW, but not daily for JNB. Also with new slots in HND to reduce downtime to around 2-3 hours will benefit the schedule. While YVR is most likely to be dropped when the last 747s are retired.


They can't reduce the downtime in HND unless they do something like a 22:00 arrival and 23:45 departure. MEL is using their 1x daytime slot pair in both directions so SYD will have to stick to the night time slot pair (22:00-06:00). They could hypothetically move MEL back to a 22:00 departure and move the SYD departure earlier, thus splitting their daytime slot, but have decided to maintain the status quo.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:09 am

And I think if they went the A380 they'd want to keep the evening departures as those times are more popular with the business community.. and you've got a lot of seats to fill
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:36 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
If DFW gets the 789 daily with the last two frames Then both JNB and HND can be operated by the A380s taken from DFW, but not daily for JNB. Also with new slots in HND to reduce downtime to around 2-3 hours will benefit the schedule. While YVR is most likely to be dropped when the last 747s are retired.


They can't reduce the downtime in HND unless they do something like a 22:00 arrival and 23:45 departure. MEL is using their 1x daytime slot pair in both directions so SYD will have to stick to the night time slot pair (22:00-06:00). They could hypothetically move MEL back to a 22:00 departure and move the SYD departure earlier, thus splitting their daytime slot, but have decided to maintain the status quo.


I think plan A was/ is A380 SYD-HND with 789 to DFW probably with a MEL-DFW service with a 789 to make up for the lords of seats ex SYD, 789 also SYD-JNB with atleast a seasonal PER-JNB.

Plan B would have A380s staying in DFW and 789 SYD-HND with an additional SYD-NRT A330.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:41 am

As I see it there are two possible outcomes in 12 months from now, with either HND or JNB getting an A380 and the other a 787 and everything else status quo. Changing DFW to a 787 is a pretty massive hit to capacity, even with a 3 weekly MEL-DFW. I have mapped both the 787s and A380s as it was the only way I could keep track to make sure I was capturing everything.


Option One (assumes that HND does not permit A380 operations)

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (maybe with a SYD-AKL in between, A330 SYD-NRT to compensate for lost capacity)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

Option 2 (HND permits A380 operations, JNB is down-gauged)

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-JNB = 2 (it's 1.5 but there's not much you can do with the fractional 0.5 other than an AKL night-stop)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR = 3
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2
SYD-HND = 1.5

TOTAL: 10.5/12

Option 3 (NB: This results in ~1200 fewer weekly seats to the USA - noting that QF are going to increase DFW to daily year-round so presumably it is doing well enough)

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO (4x) + MEL-DFW (3x) = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR = 3
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-HND + SYD-JNB = 3

TOTAL: 10/12





(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1. Hypothetical schedule based on schedule for QF1:

NS

SYD-JNB 10:00-16:00
JNB-SYD 18:00-13:45
SYD-SIN 15:55-22:15

NW

SYD-JNB 11:00-16:00
JNB-SYD 18:00-14:45
SYD-SIN 17:00-22:05

(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF127/128 and/or QF35/36 to be seasonally up-gauged
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:58 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
As I see it there are two possible outcomes in 12 months from now, with either HND or JNB getting an A380 and the other a 787 and everything else status quo. Changing DFW to a 787 is a pretty massive hit to capacity, even with a 3 weekly MEL-DFW. I have mapped both the 787s and A380s as it was the only way I could keep track to make sure I was capturing everything.


Option One (assumes that HND does not permit A380 operations)

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (maybe with a SYD-AKL in between, A330 SYD-NRT to compensate for lost capacity)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

Option 2 (HND permits A380 operations, JNB is down-gauged)

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-JNB = 2 (it's 1.5 but there's not much you can do with the fractional 0.5 other than an AKL night-stop)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR = 3
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2
SYD-HND = 1.5

TOTAL: 10.5/12

Option 3 (NB: This results in ~1200 fewer weekly seats to the USA - noting that QF are going to increase DFW to daily year-round so presumably it is doing well enough)

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO (4x) + MEL-DFW (3x) = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR = 3
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-HND + SYD-JNB = 3

TOTAL: 10/12





(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1. Hypothetical schedule based on schedule for QF1:

NS

SYD-JNB 10:00-16:00
JNB-SYD 18:00-13:45
SYD-SIN 15:55-22:15

NW

SYD-JNB 11:00-16:00
JNB-SYD 18:00-14:45
SYD-SIN 17:00-22:05

(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF127/128 and/or QF35/36 to be seasonally up-gauged


This is a good summary. I don’t think Option 2 is viable due to the utilisation issue you pointed out on JNB. It needs to be paired with QF1/2.

I also believe that QF8 is load restricted when operated as an A380 so you may not lose as many seats as 1,200 per week. But I stand to be corrected on this point.

Also, QF regularly as 11 A380 in rotation it wasn’t for refurbs. Therefore in 2021 you can assume that QF35/36 will stay as an A380.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:09 am

I'm just curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? They should at least serve one canadian destination daily year round. Look at AC with Canada-Australia routes, QF should at least add SYD-YVR daily year round for extra competition.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:13 am

YYZORD wrote:
I'm just curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? They should at least serve one canadian destination daily year round. Look at AC with Canada-Australia routes, QF should at least add SYD-YVR daily year round for extra competition.


Because firstly they don't have the available aircraft, what aircraft they do have there are more important markets to serve. Also having noticed what passengers VA send through on AC there aren't many that just go to YVR, they connect onto other services within Canada
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:15 am

YYZORD wrote:
I'm just curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? They should at least serve one canadian destination daily year round. Look at AC with Canada-Australia routes, QF should at least add SYD-YVR daily year round for extra competition.


"Extra Competition" isn't the reason alone why an airline should enter a route. Many other factors also occur, e.g yields, cost per seat mile (CASM), passenger feed and so on.

Edit: and as posters above previously said, aircraft availability and whether more money can be made elsewhere.
 
NZ516
Posts: 459
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:18 am

Great work there RyanairGuru lots of options for Qantas. And as you say a slight change of timings with the JNB service will ideal to implement to replace a 747 more easily. Are the 787s be taken off all routes to HKG permanently? If so they could add more USA frequencies. Hopefully we will be informed soon in the new year what Qantas plans are for the remaining 787s.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 519
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:18 am

qf789 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I'm just curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? They should at least serve one canadian destination daily year round. Look at AC with Canada-Australia routes, QF should at least add SYD-YVR daily year round for extra competition.


Because firstly they don't have the available aircraft, what aircraft they do have there are more important markets to serve. Also having noticed what passengers VA send through on AC there aren't many that just go to YVR, they connect onto other services within Canada


The 787-9 is the perfect aircraft for this route let alone they have codeshare with WS.
 
lessredtape
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:26 am

aerokiwi wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
LLSyd wrote:
How do you think Virgin as a business will handle the heavy maintenance checks on there 777 fleet next year and the trimming of flights to LA?

Especially Va1/Va2 that is dropping from a daily service to 5 flights a week?
hopeless. VA need to maintain daily from at least 2 cities to LAX & at same time every day.

BNE/LAX only opposition is QF. MEL/LAX has plenty


But they're turning a profit on their North American flights, finally, so obviously it's not too hopeless. Also... these are temporary heavy maintenance checks, so a temporary reduction during lower demand times. Qantas is doing the same, yet where's the criticism (not that it warrants any, either)?

Just relax and accept that sometimes airlines have to trade off certain elements of their service to attain longer term benefits via maintenance. VAappears to have found a sweetspot at lasat for its 77W fleet and North American services. Great! And as pointed out by another poster, until VA replaces the 330 and 77W with a single fleet type, you won't see the flexibility that you expect.
QF with daily BNE/LAX (currently 13/week) gets more high yield business traffic.
 
lessredtape
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:27 am

aerokiwi wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
LLSyd wrote:
How do you think Virgin as a business will handle the heavy maintenance checks on there 777 fleet next year and the trimming of flights to LA?

Especially Va1/Va2 that is dropping from a daily service to 5 flights a week?
hopeless. VA need to maintain daily from at least 2 cities to LAX & at same time every day.

BNE/LAX only opposition is QF. MEL/LAX has plenty


But they're turning a profit on their North American flights, finally, so obviously it's not too hopeless. Also... these are temporary heavy maintenance checks, so a temporary reduction during lower demand times. Qantas is doing the same, yet where's the criticism (not that it warrants any, either)?

Just relax and accept that sometimes airlines have to trade off certain elements of their service to attain longer term benefits via maintenance. VAappears to have found a sweetspot at lasat for its 77W fleet and North American services. Great! And as pointed out by another poster, until VA replaces the 330 and 77W with a single fleet type, you won't see the flexibility that you expect.
QF with daily BNE/LAX (currently 13/week) gets more high yield business traffic.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1836
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:21 am

SCFlyer wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I'm just curious as to why QF can't make YVR work year round? They should at least serve one canadian destination daily year round. Look at AC with Canada-Australia routes, QF should at least add SYD-YVR daily year round for extra competition.


"Extra Competition" isn't the reason alone why an airline should enter a route. Many other factors also occur, e.g yields, cost per seat mile (CASM), passenger feed and so on.

Edit: and as posters above previously said, aircraft availability and whether more money can be made elsewhere.

This poster suggested all the airlines globally should serve Canada in no time and especially YYZ, junking too many threads and such we should really take his post as a grain of salt.

Michael

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