Obzerva wrote:Before we get in to predictions for 2020 (which I'm assuming we'll do in the Jan thread) - how did everyone go with their 2019 predictions?
Jan '19 thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411749 if anyone needs a reminder
My predictions turned out mixed.
International won't happen in 2019 due to CIQ space constraints
JQ ADL to increase to daily
TT to launch SYD
VA PER to increase to daily for peak season
Remote chance of QF seasonal PER if they launch more ultra long haul routes from PER
The first was correct, and I predict international will happen at HBA by the end of 2020.
Although JQ didn't increase HBA-ADL to daily, they did increase it from three- to four-weekly. This city pair has the highest number of connecting passengers nationally, and a recent pay-walled article https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/hobart-airports-busiest-week-in-more-than-six-decades-marked-by-arrival-from-north-pole/news-story/d1c5649f2cec43a6257aefc6be158397&ved=2ahUKEwiLyanru9fmAhVW6nMBHUG-AqUQFjAAegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw1-ca4hDmvfrVqhVtltg8C-&cf=1 quoted load factors over 90 per cent — the usual caveat about unknown yield applies of course.
TT commencing HBA-SYD was a hail Mary play that didn't eventuate, but I predict the VA group will add an extra daily by the end of 2020.
VA's HBA-PER didn't quite get to daily, although extra services were added for peak season and up to six weekly services are scheduled during Easter 2020. HBA-PER surviving while CBR-PER and OOL-PER were cut is significant.
QF didn't launch more long-haul routes from PER so my fifth prediction became moot.