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airzona11
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:47 pm

DL747400 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
There are such a few number of routes, 50 seems high. That being said, how many on here who trash UA/US3 for transAtlantic 757s, will applaud the use of A321s?


50 A321XLRs is not too many for replacement of existing USA East Coast to Western/Central Europe as well as new expansion.

There are many routes which UA could be operating now if they had enough of the "right aircraft" for the mission.


I think the aircraft will be a good 1:1 replacement. I do not see UA going long and thin. Their business model for long haul is larger capacity planes with large premium cabins. A321s even with great OpEx still do not have that many people, it is therefore best where UA will command the premium for p2p. With JV in the Atlantic, maybe South America is the best bet, but is their that much uncaptured premium demand from their hubs?
 
tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:50 pm

JonesNL wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8


Is this true though? I can't imagine that the 787-8 cost the same as an A321XLR.


Unit = seat mile, not unit = aircraft.

Best regards
Thomas
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PW100
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:55 pm

VV wrote:
Buddys747 wrote:
Congratulations to United and Airbus! Hopefully this means a follow up to more A320 series aircraft. United has such a large fleet they will need A320 replacements down the road and the MAX can’t cover them all. And not every city can handle an A321, so there will be a need for smaller variants.
The A350 deferrals are just that, not sure why everyone is getting worked up about it. Things change, and once the 777-200 start costing more to maintain, they will need to be replaced with something.


I think people are puzzled by the timing of the A350-900 introduction to United. Year 2027 is about 11years after A350-900's EIS or about 21 years after it's launch.

One can ask the question whether it is not a deferred cancellation.


On the other hand, UA wasn't exactly launch customer for the 77W . . . .
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Stitch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:55 pm

Deferring the A350 again gives UA the time to evaluate how future widebody traffic patterns evolve and see what Airbus and Boeing do to PiP the A350 and 787 families. I would not be surprised if UA now has a no-penalty escape clause for the A350 (using the A321XLR order as leverage to get it) so if they do decide the family no longer works for them, there will be nothing holding them to the order. That being said, I am not advocating they will do so.
 
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PW100
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:59 pm

9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
It's official:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 68734.html
A350s deferred until 2027 to better fit operational needs.
They just can't bring themselves to cancel them. :rotfl:

UA repeatedly deferred delivery of the wide-body aircraft, which was ordered in 2009. First delivery was originally scheduled for 2013. There are 14 years from the original delivery date to the new one.
https://leehamnews.com/2019/12/03/unite ... -a321xlrs/

scbriml wrote:
This is like, what, the 4th opportunity they've had to cancel them? Explain to me why they haven't cancelled.

Explain to me why they keep deferring them, and why they can't continue to defer them past 2027.


I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .
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RasmusJ
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:06 pm

Stitch wrote:
Deferring the A350 again gives UA the time to evaluate how future widebody traffic patterns evolve and see what Airbus and Boeing do to PiP the A350 and 787 families. I would not be surprised if UA now has a no-penalty escape clause for the A350 (using the A321XLR order as leverage to get it) so if they do decide the family no longer works for them, there will be nothing holding them to the order. That being said, I am not advocating they will do so.


I don’t think UA had that much leverage here. What else were they going to do if the NMA isn’t happening?
 
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767333ER
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:15 pm

Good for United! Take notes Air Canada!!
ACCS300 wrote:
I really hope Air Canada is watching this closely, comes to their sense and orders some XLR's, they'd be the absolutely perfect fit for long and thin TATL route like those from YHZ. Well done UA!

Well the could technically be inheriting the TS 321LRs but yeah.
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Lootess
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:17 pm

Skeptical that the A350 may never land on United property, this smells just like Delta and the 787 when they made the large 737-900ER order. With that big of a deferral probably as as result of the A321XLR, they probably have more favorable terms.
Last edited by Lootess on Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
moyangmm wrote:
scbriml wrote:

You'd be right if UA had actually cancelled their A350s. But they haven't. Still think it's a massive win for Boeing? :scratchchin:


You do really believe that they will take A350 in 2027?


This is like, what, the 4th opportunity they've had to cancel them? Explain to me why they haven't cancelled. Timing would now also give them the option to take them with Ultrafan.

It's also the fourth opportunity to take them up that they've let go by.

My guess is cheap 77Ws and a big fleet of 787s is why they aren't that interested in taking A350 now.

Once they have no choice but replace 77E we should see the A359 fill that role.

It's a big win for Airbus and the A321XLR.

Will be interesting to see if they go PW or CFM.

It's a big loss for Boeing considering they presumably had UA penciled in as a NMA launch customer.

The main opportunity would be 753/763 replacement but it seems A321/788 is how UA will deal with that opportunity.

This enhances the idea that Boeing will do a 737 replacement sooner rather than later.

It isn't exactly the outcome Airbus would have preferred, IMO.

Amiga500 wrote:
Bit of a mixed bag for both airframers, both can draw their pros and cons out of it.

Airbus
Pros
- Effectively establishes A321 in dominant position in the 757 replacement market.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so is the only player in the smaller end of that market. Can price accordingly.
- Gets into UA's single aisle fleet in a big way. Possible future orders off the back of this.
Cons
- UA A350ceo looks decidedly unlikely at this point. A350neo is also a long shot IMO.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so Boeing don't now waste tens of billions and millions of engineering hours on a niche market.

Boeing
Pros
- 787 looks more likely to gain further UA orders now.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so the decision Boeing should have made 5 years ago has now been made for them.
- Clears the decks for 737RS/NSA/FSA?
Cons
- 737 loses further ground to A321 - which has connotations for pricing pressure down the road.
- Will any future UA 787 order mean a loss of the existing 737-10 order? It'll mean a further haircut for 737-10 prices you'd think.
- The NMA being killed off by outside forces makes Boeings Csuite and futures office look like the hamfisted amateurs they are. This is now the second time the A32X has had airlines (via their cheque book) define Boeing's strategic decisions for them. Does it look like the lessons that brought about the panicked MAX launch have been learned?

It's a minor "con" for Airbus since it probably will have to do something to counter the "737RS/NSA/FSA" which should be a bigger threat than "NMA" was, but overall the "pros" outweigh the "cons".
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1989worstyear
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
moyangmm wrote:

You do really believe that they will take A350 in 2027?


This is like, what, the 4th opportunity they've had to cancel them? Explain to me why they haven't cancelled. Timing would now also give them the option to take them with Ultrafan.

It's also the fourth opportunity to take them up that they've let go by.

My guess is cheap 77Ws and a big fleet of 787s is why they aren't that interested in taking A350 now.

Once they have no choice but replace 77E we should see the A359 fill that role.

It's a big win for Airbus and the A321XLR.

Will be interesting to see if they go PW or CFM.

It's a big loss for Boeing considering they presumably had UA penciled in as a NMA launch customer.

The main opportunity would be 753/763 replacement but it seems A321/788 is how UA will deal with that opportunity.

This enhances the idea that Boeing will do a 737 replacement sooner rather than later.

It isn't exactly the outcome Airbus would have preferred, IMO.

Amiga500 wrote:
Bit of a mixed bag for both airframers, both can draw their pros and cons out of it.

Airbus
Pros
- Effectively establishes A321 in dominant position in the 757 replacement market.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so is the only player in the smaller end of that market. Can price accordingly.
- Gets into UA's single aisle fleet in a big way. Possible future orders off the back of this.
Cons
- UA A350ceo looks decidedly unlikely at this point. A350neo is also a long shot IMO.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so Boeing don't now waste tens of billions and millions of engineering hours on a niche market.

Boeing
Pros
- 787 looks more likely to gain further UA orders now.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so the decision Boeing should have made 5 years ago has now been made for them.
- Clears the decks for 737RS/NSA/FSA?
Cons
- 737 loses further ground to A321 - which has connotations for pricing pressure down the road.
- Will any future UA 787 order mean a loss of the existing 737-10 order? It'll mean a further haircut for 737-10 prices you'd think.
- The NMA being killed off by outside forces makes Boeings Csuite and futures office look like the hamfisted amateurs they are. This is now the second time the A32X has had airlines (via their cheque book) define Boeing's strategic decisions for them. Does it look like the lessons that brought about the panicked MAX launch have been learned?

It's a minor "con" for Airbus since it probably will have to do something to counter the "737RS/NSA/FSA" which should be a bigger threat than "NMA" was, but overall the "pros" outweigh the "cons".


Most of the 77E's are the same age as the 753's.

Do 777's age better or something?
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airbazar
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:24 pm

Polot wrote:
United only converted back to the A359 2 years ago (September 2017). Fuel prices haven’t collapsed since then, in fact I believe they have risen.


I was referring to the original order in 2010.
In 2010 oil prices were over $100/bbl. By 2017 prices had collapsed to less then $50/bbl so they delayed deliveries. Prices remain low now so they delayed it one more time. That's my theory and I'm sticking to it :)
Polot wrote:
I don’t think UA will care all that much if SQ is at ORD or IAD. That is one spoke in UA’s ORD/IAD hub . You don’t see UA rushing to respond to the EWR nonstop.

They don't have a plane that can fly the route. Just like they don't have a plane to fly LAX-SIN. They tried it, remember?
If you think they don't care because it's just one spoke think again. why do you think they tried LAX-SIN? That was also just 1 spoke.
 
Galwayman
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:35 pm

50 just seems too few . With Boeing back in the Stone Age the A321LR is the only game In town
 
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Polot
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:36 pm

airbazar wrote:
They don't have a plane that can fly the route. Just like they don't have a plane to fly LAX-SIN. They tried it, remember?
If you think they don't care because it's just one spoke think again. why do you think they tried LAX-SIN? That was also just 1 spoke.

UA doesn’t have a plane that can fly ORD/IAD-SIN nonstop either. And they don’t seem to be in any rush to get one.

Galwayman wrote:
50 just seems too few .

Not really. The XLR is only needed for TATL, South America, and maybe some Hawaii flights. The similar sized Max 10 (of which UA has 100 on order) can easily fly any of UA’s domestic routes in the lower 48. UA today only has ~40 (I want to say 43 but could be wrong) non PS 752s (Max 10 will replace PS 757s), and in recent years they have been pulled off many international routes already in favor of 763s or just canceling the route- 50 XLRs will be quite an expansion for UA as domestic (except for the aforementioned longer Hawaii flights) will not be the target market.
 
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Stitch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:44 pm

Galwayman wrote:
50 just seems too few.


It depends on what roles United plans for them. As they are XLR models, it stands to reason they will be used for TATL 757-200 replacement along with probable new TATL and Hawaii services from focus cities. United also has 100 737-10 on order that would work well for domestic 757-200 and 757-300 replacement so they do not need the A321-200 for those missions.
 
9Patch
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:52 pm

PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
It's official:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 68734.html
A350s deferred until 2027 to better fit operational needs.
They just can't bring themselves to cancel them. :rotfl:

UA repeatedly deferred delivery of the wide-body aircraft, which was ordered in 2009. First delivery was originally scheduled for 2013. There are 14 years from the original delivery date to the new one.
https://leehamnews.com/2019/12/03/unite ... -a321xlrs/

scbriml wrote:
This is like, what, the 4th opportunity they've had to cancel them? Explain to me why they haven't cancelled.

Explain to me why they keep deferring them, and why they can't continue to defer them past 2027.


I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .


I expect they will eventually cancel the A350 and order the 787 instead.
Will Airbus mind that?
 
JFKalumni
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:00 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
gokmengs wrote:
Congratulations to UA and Airbus. The XLR is a very capable plane and the only true 757 replacement. I am surprised they are going 1/1 with their 757 fleet and not adding. Also what is the obsession of some not wanting to see the 350 in the fleet? Variety is bad? Lucky me God bless TK they order everything:)
PS I find UA post merger very pro Boeing and their press release lingo is as if they only ordered Airbus because they had to and it was the only option, almost apologetic in a way. Its just my gut feeling. Disclaimer: I am not a fanboy of either A or B


I think the 737-10 will replace the 757-200 on P.S. Service, so I think it is a growth of the true international 757 Fleet!


The 737-10 is perfect for the EWR Caribbean and Central America routes.

EWR - PTY is notorious for 300+ bags on the 737-800 and 900ER

The real question is can the A321XLR handle Lima ?

EWR - LIM is known for 500+ bags on a 757. The XLR has the range but I doubt it’s taking 500 bags.
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:09 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Most of the 77E's are the same age as the 753's.

Do 777's age better or something?


yes. the widebody fleet generally flies longer routes and therefore has fewer cycles.
 
jayunited
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks for your thoughts on this. I just don't see 100 MAX 10 covering all their needs. A321NEO is sold out for a while and XLR won't get delivered until 2024. The question for me is what UA will do after that. In another 5 years, the domestic market will upgauge more, which means fewer A320/MAX8 and more MAX10/A321NEO. The economics of A320NEO is a lot worse than A321NEO. If they are already getting this large of XLR order and looking to have a balance of Airbus/Boeing in their narrowbody fleet (good for negotiation), then I don't think they will stop at XLR. For Airbus, they really just need to get in the door with this order and hope that UA likes the product and buys more NEOs in the future.

I think 787-8 is going to get killed on these lower volume TATL routes by A321XLR. Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8 + both B6 and AA will be flying A321XLR from Northeast to TATL. If you are trying out a new route with unknown demand or find replacement on a seasonal tourism market, are you more likely to fill a 250 seat aircraft or a 150 seat aircraft? Or 5x weekly/daily with 150 seat aircraft or 3x weekly with 250 seat aircraft.


Your response just brought back something UA executives said some time ago which is UA needs larger aircraft at hubs like EWR, SFO, and ORD. I just imagined that the MAX10 would fill those rolls dometically. After reading your response and other peoples response you all may have a point that there is room for both the MAX10 and A321NEO within UA's domestic fleet. However I still believe in the future there will still be a need for an aircraft within the 150 to 166 seat range, which is the space our A320s and 738s currently occupy.

As far as the the A321XLR, I think it is perfect for lower volume routes from EWR and IAD on a year round basis. As a matter of fact this morning Kirby was telling employees here at Willis when these aircraft are delivered there are at least 15 - 20 TATL routes not currently served by UA that UA would be able to serve profitably from both EWR and IAD. (I took his statement to also include long thin TATL routes UA has canceled in the past)

The issue I have with the A321XLR is UA utilizes our 763s on a lot of TATL trunk routes and South America route, many are not low volume routes. On these routes the especially our cargo heavy routes the A321XLR can not replace the 763. This is why I believe UA will either buy or lease 15-20 additional 788s because by 2025-2026 our oldest 763s will need to be retired and UA will need an aircraft of similar size to replace some of those 763s. I know in the past Airbus has tried to get UA to order some A330s as a replacement for part of our 763 fleet. I don't see UA order that fleet type but I do see UA replacing some 763s with 788s.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:22 pm

767333ER wrote:
Good for United! Take notes Air Canada!!
ACCS300 wrote:
I really hope Air Canada is watching this closely, comes to their sense and orders some XLR's, they'd be the absolutely perfect fit for long and thin TATL route like those from YHZ. Well done UA!

Well the could technically be inheriting the TS 321LRs but yeah.


Hopefully once AC sees their capability the XLR's will be irresistible.
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 163
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:23 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:


Explain to me why they keep deferring them, and why they can't continue to defer them past 2027.


I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .


I expect they will eventually cancel the A350 and order the 787 instead.
Will Airbus mind that?


I agree. I’m sure the A350 is an amazing aircraft but the writing is on the wall.

77W ship 2149 in flight tests

Ship 2150,2151,2152 yet to be built but we all know they’re coming.

A350 pushed back to 2027.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:34 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
I really hope Air Canada is watching this closely, comes to their sense and orders some XLR's, they'd be the absolutely perfect fit for long and thin TATL route like those from YHZ. Well done UA!
What route from YHZ has the demand to fill an A321 and needs the range of the XLR?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 163
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:35 pm

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks for your thoughts on this. I just don't see 100 MAX 10 covering all their needs. A321NEO is sold out for a while and XLR won't get delivered until 2024. The question for me is what UA will do after that. In another 5 years, the domestic market will upgauge more, which means fewer A320/MAX8 and more MAX10/A321NEO. The economics of A320NEO is a lot worse than A321NEO. If they are already getting this large of XLR order and looking to have a balance of Airbus/Boeing in their narrowbody fleet (good for negotiation), then I don't think they will stop at XLR. For Airbus, they really just need to get in the door with this order and hope that UA likes the product and buys more NEOs in the future.

I think 787-8 is going to get killed on these lower volume TATL routes by A321XLR. Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8 + both B6 and AA will be flying A321XLR from Northeast to TATL. If you are trying out a new route with unknown demand or find replacement on a seasonal tourism market, are you more likely to fill a 250 seat aircraft or a 150 seat aircraft? Or 5x weekly/daily with 150 seat aircraft or 3x weekly with 250 seat aircraft.


Your response just brought back something UA executives said some time ago which is UA needs larger aircraft at hubs like EWR, SFO, and ORD. I just imagined that the MAX10 would fill those rolls dometically. After reading your response and other peoples response you all may have a point that there is room for both the MAX10 and A321NEO within UA's domestic fleet. However I still believe in the future there will still be a need for an aircraft within the 150 to 166 seat range, which is the space our A320s and 738s currently occupy.

As far as the the A321XLR, I think it is perfect for lower volume routes from EWR and IAD on a year round basis. As a matter of fact this morning Kirby was telling employees here at Willis when these aircraft are delivered there are at least 15 - 20 TATL routes not currently served by UA that UA would be able to serve profitably from both EWR and IAD. (I took his statement to also include long thin TATL routes UA has canceled in the past)

The issue I have with the A321XLR is UA utilizes our 763s on a lot of TATL trunk routes and South America route, many are not low volume routes. On these routes the especially our cargo heavy routes the A321XLR can not replace the 763. This is why I believe UA will either buy or lease 15-20 additional 788s because by 2025-2026 our oldest 763s will need to be retired and UA will need an aircraft of similar size to replace some of those 763s. I know in the past Airbus has tried to get UA to order some A330s as a replacement for part of our 763 fleet. I don't see UA order that fleet type but I do see UA replacing some 763s with 788s.


EWR:

BFS
NCL
BHX
GLA
SNN
EDI
OSL Daily
CPH Daily
ARN Daily
AMS Second Daily
KEF
OPO
MAD Second Daily
 
DCA350
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:37 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:


Explain to me why they keep deferring them, and why they can't continue to defer them past 2027.


I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .


I expect they will eventually cancel the A350 and order the 787 instead.
Will Airbus mind that?


Only time with tell.. However the A359 is a drop in replacement for the 777E. The 789 is smaller and the 7810 doesn't have the range to fly many of the deep TPAC routes UA flys. Cargo is also big with UA and the A359 would carry more cargo than both on long range missions. All that being said if UA agrees to buy 100+ NEOs I'm sure Airbus would have no problem with that swap.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:38 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:

This is like, what, the 4th opportunity they've had to cancel them? Explain to me why they haven't cancelled. Timing would now also give them the option to take them with Ultrafan.

It's also the fourth opportunity to take them up that they've let go by.

My guess is cheap 77Ws and a big fleet of 787s is why they aren't that interested in taking A350 now.

Once they have no choice but replace 77E we should see the A359 fill that role.

It's a big win for Airbus and the A321XLR.

Will be interesting to see if they go PW or CFM.

It's a big loss for Boeing considering they presumably had UA penciled in as a NMA launch customer.

The main opportunity would be 753/763 replacement but it seems A321/788 is how UA will deal with that opportunity.

This enhances the idea that Boeing will do a 737 replacement sooner rather than later.

It isn't exactly the outcome Airbus would have preferred, IMO.

Amiga500 wrote:
Bit of a mixed bag for both airframers, both can draw their pros and cons out of it.

Airbus
Pros
- Effectively establishes A321 in dominant position in the 757 replacement market.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so is the only player in the smaller end of that market. Can price accordingly.
- Gets into UA's single aisle fleet in a big way. Possible future orders off the back of this.
Cons
- UA A350ceo looks decidedly unlikely at this point. A350neo is also a long shot IMO.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so Boeing don't now waste tens of billions and millions of engineering hours on a niche market.

Boeing
Pros
- 787 looks more likely to gain further UA orders now.
- Has probably killed off the Boeing NMA, so the decision Boeing should have made 5 years ago has now been made for them.
- Clears the decks for 737RS/NSA/FSA?
Cons
- 737 loses further ground to A321 - which has connotations for pricing pressure down the road.
- Will any future UA 787 order mean a loss of the existing 737-10 order? It'll mean a further haircut for 737-10 prices you'd think.
- The NMA being killed off by outside forces makes Boeings Csuite and futures office look like the hamfisted amateurs they are. This is now the second time the A32X has had airlines (via their cheque book) define Boeing's strategic decisions for them. Does it look like the lessons that brought about the panicked MAX launch have been learned?

It's a minor "con" for Airbus since it probably will have to do something to counter the "737RS/NSA/FSA" which should be a bigger threat than "NMA" was, but overall the "pros" outweigh the "cons".


Most of the 77E's are the same age as the 753's.

Do 777's age better or something?


The 757-200 to be replaced by the A321XLR are considerable older than the 777-200 that the A350 are supposed to replace.
The oldest 757-200 are hitting 30 years and the oldest 777-200 25 years.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:42 pm

DCA350 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:

I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .


I expect they will eventually cancel the A350 and order the 787 instead.
Will Airbus mind that?


Only time with tell.. However the A359 is a drop in replacement for the 777E. The 789 is smaller and the 7810 doesn't have the range to fly many of the deep TPAC routes UA flys. Cargo is also big with UA and the A359 would carry more cargo than both on long range missions. All that being said if UA agrees to buy 100+ NEOs I'm sure Airbus would have no problem with that swap.


By 2027, there could very well be a reengined 787 in the cards or already flying. I think they may be waiting for that.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:53 pm

Congrats Airbus and United.

Great choice. The only choice actually.

Like most aviation geeks I have a soft spot for the venerable 757.

... however:

The differences between the 757 and the A321 have only gotten larger with the introduction of the XLR. In Airbus' favor of course.

More capable. Quieter. 30% less fuel burn. The new benchmark.

Boeing, it's time to build something new and wonderful. You're being left behind in every narrowbody segment.
 
airbazar
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:58 pm

Polot wrote:
airbazar wrote:
They don't have a plane that can fly the route. Just like they don't have a plane to fly LAX-SIN. They tried it, remember?
If you think they don't care because it's just one spoke think again. why do you think they tried LAX-SIN? That was also just 1 spoke.

UA doesn’t have a plane that can fly ORD/IAD-SIN nonstop either. And they don’t seem to be in any rush to get one.

There's a difference between not being in a rush and not caring. They will have that plane in 2027 :)
Last edited by airbazar on Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Polot
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:58 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's also the fourth opportunity to take them up that they've let go by.

My guess is cheap 77Ws and a big fleet of 787s is why they aren't that interested in taking A350 now.

Once they have no choice but replace 77E we should see the A359 fill that role.

It's a big win for Airbus and the A321XLR.

Will be interesting to see if they go PW or CFM.

It's a big loss for Boeing considering they presumably had UA penciled in as a NMA launch customer.

The main opportunity would be 753/763 replacement but it seems A321/788 is how UA will deal with that opportunity.

This enhances the idea that Boeing will do a 737 replacement sooner rather than later.

It isn't exactly the outcome Airbus would have preferred, IMO.


It's a minor "con" for Airbus since it probably will have to do something to counter the "737RS/NSA/FSA" which should be a bigger threat than "NMA" was, but overall the "pros" outweigh the "cons".


Most of the 77E's are the same age as the 753's.

Do 777's age better or something?


The 757-200 to be replaced by the A321XLR are considerable older than the 777-200 that the A350 are supposed to replace.
The oldest 757-200 are hitting 30 years and the oldest 777-200 25 years.

The oldest 757s the XLR will replace are about the same age as the oldest 777s. The even older 757s are the PMUA PS birds, which will probably be replaced by 737 Max 10s before the XLR enters the fleet in 2024.

airbazar wrote:
Polot wrote:
airbazar wrote:
They don't have a plane that can fly the route. Just like they don't have a plane to fly LAX-SIN. They tried it, remember?
If you think they don't care because it's just one spoke think again. why do you think they tried LAX-SIN? That was also just 1 spoke.

UA doesn’t have a plane that can fly ORD/IAD-SIN nonstop either. And they don’t seem to be in any rush to get one.
There's a difference between not being in a rush and not caring. They will have that plane in 2027 :)

2027 is 7 long years away. If UA cared they would not have deferred the entire order. They are not making route decisions 7 years in advance.
 
TrafficCop
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:59 pm

My wishes.
UA has 74 777's to replace. 19 77A HD configuration and 55 77E(33 PW and 22 GE). So to replace these I suggest the following.
20 787-10 in 2 class HD configuration to replace the 77A's.
10 787-10 as growth and replacement for oldest 77E's with PW.( Of course these are still rumored as already coming)
10 787-9 as replacement for some 77E's with PW ( Or subfleet in HJ configuration for ULH).
These would be ordered for delivery 2022-2027.
The 45 A359's then start coming replacing the last 77E's with PW and the GE's.(Or use some of these to create ULH fleet but think need sooner than 2027.)

Now to just get Airbus or Boeing to develop an aircraft similar in range but with 30% increase in pax from the XLR to about 215-230 in 2/3 class configuration. Perfect
replacement for 757-300/767-300ER and even the 767-400. ( UA would need 75 or so just for replacement not including future growth.)

Too bad Airbus could not come up with a WB in concert with XLR like the 757/767 program.

Now let the bashing begin!!!
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:05 pm

TrafficCop wrote:
My wishes.
UA has 74 777's to replace. 19 77A HD configuration and 55 77E(33 PW and 22 GE). So to replace these I suggest the following.
20 787-10 in 2 class HD configuration to replace the 77A's.
10 787-10 as growth and replacement for oldest 77E's with PW.( Of course these are still rumored as already coming)
10 787-9 as replacement for some 77E's with PW ( Or subfleet in HJ configuration for ULH).
These would be ordered for delivery 2022-2027.
The 45 A359's then start coming replacing the last 77E's with PW and the GE's.(Or use some of these to create ULH fleet but think need sooner than 2027.)

Now to just get Airbus or Boeing to develop an aircraft similar in range but with 30% increase in pax from the XLR to about 215-230 in 2/3 class configuration. Perfect
replacement for 757-300/767-300ER and even the 767-400. ( UA would need 75 or so just for replacement not including future growth.)

Too bad Airbus could not come up with a WB in concert with XLR like the 757/767 program.

Now let the bashing begin!!!

I am of the belief UA will order more 78X - it seems to be working out exceptionally well. For those listening, the CFO has stated repeatedly that fleet complexity adds a huge cost. I don't see them actually adding the A350 for this very reason.
 
jagraham
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:12 pm

SEPilot wrote:
jagraham wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
These were originally going to replace the 744s. Then they were going to replace the 772s. So are they going to keep the 772s until 2027 and beyond? They will be getting kind of old by then.


Some 772s are old already. 777 LN1, the first prototype, went to Cathay. It is now at the Pima museum. LNs 2 thru 6, the other prototypes, went to UA and BA. They are all flying. LN7, the first 777 in revenue service, went to United and is still flying for United. UA sold a few of the first 20 777s they got, and most of the sold 777s are stored or scrapped. But the rest comprise the 19 77A high capacity domestic planes. Most received in 1995 and 1996, so approaching 25 years old. And flying every day.
Nevertheless I expect these planes to be replaced in the next 5 to 7 years. They won't be replaced by A321s because they mostly operate to busy slot or gate limited hubs. My guess is that UA will use younger 77Es as they bring in 787s or perhaps A350 NEOs (delaying the A350 order to 2027 would mean that the A350s they get are NEOs).

You really think, with all the troubles they are having, that RR will have the Ultrafan in service by 2027? Dream on.


I may be dreaming, but RR dropped out of NMA to concentrate on Ultrafan. Also, RR has done some simplifications that will lop off a couple of percent of efficiency, such as the variable pitch fan, that will make the project more realizable in the desired timeframe. So while there are still some ifs, like cash flow, RR can do this by sometime in 2025 if they keep focus. The ball is in their court.

In any case, it would benefit United to get A350s that are 10% better than what's now being delivered. If the Ultrafan works as well as the Trent XWB.
 
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PW100
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:51 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:


Explain to me why they keep deferring them, and why they can't continue to defer them past 2027.


I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .


I expect they will eventually cancel the A350 and order the 787 instead.
Will Airbus mind that?


Will Airbus mind that?
Depends on the price for cancelling UA A350 on order (which, contrary to some jumping for joy still seems to be in the books and hasn't been cancelled). Depends on the orderbook for the A350. Depens on Airbus margins for placing the available slots (if they have not been placed yet).
So many questions to which I nor you have any insight on. The only thing we do know is that 45 A350s are still in Airbus order book (firm), and it is expected that cancellation of signed contract will carry penalties.
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alan3
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:58 pm

Not sure if this has been answered but I'm a bit confused about where the A321LR now fits in with the A321neo and A321XLR on offer. Who's going to bother with the A321LR now?
 
9Patch
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:58 pm

PW100 wrote:

Will Airbus mind that?
Depends on the price for cancelling UA A350 on order (which, contrary to some jumping for joy still seems to be in the books and hasn't been cancelled). Depends on the orderbook for the A350. Depens on Airbus margins for placing the available slots (if they have not been placed yet).
So many questions to which I nor you have any insight on. The only thing we do know is that 45 A350s are still in Airbus order book (firm), and it is expected that cancellation of signed contract will carry penalties.


Actually, there are some who expect that a cancellation will NOT carry penalties.

Stitch wrote:
I would not be surprised if UA now has a no-penalty escape clause for the A350 (using the A321XLR order as leverage to get it) so if they do decide the family no longer works for them, there will be nothing holding them to the order.

.
 
airbazar
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:59 pm

Polot wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Polot wrote:

UA doesn’t have a plane that can fly ORD/IAD-SIN nonstop either. And they don’t seem to be in any rush to get one.
There's a difference between not being in a rush and not caring. They will have that plane in 2027 :)

2027 is 7 long years away. If UA cared they would not have deferred the entire order. They are not making route decisions 7 years in advance.

Well 7 years is when they need to replace the 777's so it is what it is. But it's not like if things change Airbus can't find them early delivery slots. You're acting like this is set in stone or something.
Routes like EWR-DEL, EWR-TLV, EWR-NRT, LAX-SIN, SFO-SIN, EWR-SIN arent going to shrink any time soon. UA needs a plane larger than the 789 and with longer range than the 7810.
If the troubles in HKG continue and companies keep shifting their business to Singapore permanently, there will be a lot more demand between the U.S. and SIN. UA will have a ultra long haul aircraft in its fleet larger than the 789. To me the only question is whether it will be the A350 or the 77X.
 
lexiion
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:20 pm

I have to say the fine wording of the internal announcement makes me think they won’t take the A350. It’s the only Aircraft type where they put “currently” in front of the order.
LEXiiON

On the widebody side, we have taken delivery of 12 787-8s, 25 787-9s and nine 787-10s, with 13 787-9s and five 787-10s still on order. We have accepted delivery of 18 777-300ERs and expect four more. We currently have 45 A350-900s on order. We also have more than 200 new or used narrowbody aircraft on order.
Last edited by lexiion on Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:23 pm

x1234 wrote:
Nothing like EU to EWR/IAD/ORD expansion!


Only IAD and EWR mentioned in article. Any expansion ORD gets might be if widebodies rotate to ORD from IAD and EWR once 321 comes in. Does UA even use any 757 on transatlantic from ORD?
 
checklist350
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:23 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:

Will Airbus mind that?
Depends on the price for cancelling UA A350 on order (which, contrary to some jumping for joy still seems to be in the books and hasn't been cancelled). Depends on the orderbook for the A350. Depens on Airbus margins for placing the available slots (if they have not been placed yet).
So many questions to which I nor you have any insight on. The only thing we do know is that 45 A350s are still in Airbus order book (firm), and it is expected that cancellation of signed contract will carry penalties.


Actually, there are some who expect that a cancellation will NOT carry penalties.

Stitch wrote:
I would not be surprised if UA now has a no-penalty escape clause for the A350 (using the A321XLR order as leverage to get it) so if they do decide the family no longer works for them, there will be nothing holding them to the order.

.


Can you explain to me how the XLR order can be used as leverage for a no-fine escape clause to (1) a much larger XWB order Airbus wants to ramp up and (2) needs actual delivery slots for; when at the same time Airbus knows (3) UA need a replacement for the 757, (4) there is no alternative to their offering, and (5) that offering is part of a family already sold out for the next ten years with open slots few and far between?

Yeah right.
Last edited by checklist350 on Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:40 pm, edited 8 times in total.
 
ordbosewr
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:32 pm

PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:

I'd expect that they can continue to defer past 2027.
Id also expect that Airbus would not mind another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement, and another 50 subsequent 321XLRs for another 5 year deferral agreement . . .


I expect they will eventually cancel the A350 and order the 787 instead.
Will Airbus mind that?


Will Airbus mind that?
Depends on the price for cancelling UA A350 on order (which, contrary to some jumping for joy still seems to be in the books and hasn't been cancelled). Depends on the orderbook for the A350. Depens on Airbus margins for placing the available slots (if they have not been placed yet).
So many questions to which I nor you have any insight on. The only thing we do know is that 45 A350s are still in Airbus order book (firm), and it is expected that cancellation of signed contract will carry penalties.


This all assumes orders have to be taken up at some point. Well, UA has a history of having orders but not taking delivery. PMUA had additional A320's on order that they kept there for years (decades if I am not mistaken). It was 'cheaper' to carry the order than it was to cancel the order. They just continued to defer the order. I am not saying this is the case for the A350 order, but this is not impossible.
And as 2025 approaches (which is far away) UA will re-evaluate what it needs by then. 5 years is a long time and the landscape may be different then and they may want the A350. As you all have correctly pointed out, maybe the A350 gets a NEO in that timeframe and that convinces UA to take the planes. What we do know now is that it is highly unlikely the A350 will be in UA colors before 2027.
 
jagraham
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:32 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
TrafficCop wrote:
My wishes.
UA has 74 777's to replace. 19 77A HD configuration and 55 77E(33 PW and 22 GE). So to replace these I suggest the following.
20 787-10 in 2 class HD configuration to replace the 77A's.
10 787-10 as growth and replacement for oldest 77E's with PW.( Of course these are still rumored as already coming)
10 787-9 as replacement for some 77E's with PW ( Or subfleet in HJ configuration for ULH).
These would be ordered for delivery 2022-2027.
The 45 A359's then start coming replacing the last 77E's with PW and the GE's.(Or use some of these to create ULH fleet but think need sooner than 2027.)

Now to just get Airbus or Boeing to develop an aircraft similar in range but with 30% increase in pax from the XLR to about 215-230 in 2/3 class configuration. Perfect
replacement for 757-300/767-300ER and even the 767-400. ( UA would need 75 or so just for replacement not including future growth.)

Too bad Airbus could not come up with a WB in concert with XLR like the 757/767 program.

Now let the bashing begin!!!

I am of the belief UA will order more 78X - it seems to be working out exceptionally well. For those listening, the CFO has stated repeatedly that fleet complexity adds a huge cost. I don't see them actually adding the A350 for this very reason.


I thought UA was converting 4 77E to HD configuration . .
in any case, capex will cause UA to demote 77Es to HD configuration at least until the next generation of engines comes along. It isn't like domestic flying needs all the range and associated MTOW (except for GUM)

The real questions are
1) If and when on 260t? Because that will give the 78J an extra hour of flying time, making it able to cover over 90% of 77E routes. Otherwise I would expect 60 789s eventually
2) Ultrafan? I may be dreaming, but if Ultrafan does what it should do, in the 2025 timeframe, we will likely see some A35Js delivered.
3) 77W - Not the most technologically advanced plane, but reasonably efficient and cheap. About a year ago, UA ordered 4 more 77Ws, among other things. Not what would be done for a stopgap. 77Ws may be at United for quite some time. https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-fy ... ing-brief/

In summary, I expect about 180 to 200 widebodies at UA in the 2030 timeframe, assuming no large (10%) economic downturns. The makeup of that widebody fleet will be interesting.
 
Scotron12
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:36 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
TrafficCop wrote:
My wishes.
UA has 74 777's to replace. 19 77A HD configuration and 55 77E(33 PW and 22 GE). So to replace these I suggest the following.
20 787-10 in 2 class HD configuration to replace the 77A's.
10 787-10 as growth and replacement for oldest 77E's with PW.( Of course these are still rumored as already coming)
10 787-9 as replacement for some 77E's with PW ( Or subfleet in HJ configuration for ULH).
These would be ordered for delivery 2022-2027.
The 45 A359's then start coming replacing the last 77E's with PW and the GE's.(Or use some of these to create ULH fleet but think need sooner than 2027.)

Now to just get Airbus or Boeing to develop an aircraft similar in range but with 30% increase in pax from the XLR to about 215-230 in 2/3 class configuration. Perfect
replacement for 757-300/767-300ER and even the 767-400. ( UA would need 75 or so just for replacement not including future growth.)

Too bad Airbus could not come up with a WB in concert with XLR like the 757/767 program.

Now let the bashing begin!!!

I am of the belief UA will order more 78X - it seems to be working out exceptionally well. For those listening, the CFO has stated repeatedly that fleet complexity adds a huge cost. I don't see them actually adding the A350 for this very reason.


Complexity? UA is a very large company that flies all over the world so they need all the compkexity they can get!

No reason they can't operate different WBs from different OEMs.
 
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Revelation
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:47 pm

checklist350 wrote:
Can you explain to me how an order can be used as leverage for a no-fine escape clause to a much larger order of a product Airbus wants to ramp up, when Airbus knows they need a replacement for the 757, there is no alternative to their offering, and that offering is part of a family basically sold out for the next ten years with open slots few and far between?

Maybe after we figure out how VS and QF were able to not take up a bunch of A380s that were firm orders for many years?

It's clear UA found a way to defer A350s four times therefore there has to be some built in flexibility.

None of us know the details.

As above I think A359 will be taken when UA gets rid of its 77Es.

lexiion wrote:
I have to say the fine wording of the internal announcement makes me think they won’t take the A350. It’s the only Aircraft type where they put “currently” in front of the order.

I thought we read UA already had purchased A350 sims?
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estorilm
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:55 pm

alan3 wrote:
Not sure if this has been answered but I'm a bit confused about where the A321LR now fits in with the A321neo and A321XLR on offer. Who's going to bother with the A321LR now?

The way I understand it, the LR achieves its range bump through ACTs, but the additional ACT also gives it flexibility over the XLR in that it can still be configured for additional cargo/luggage storage with the ACTs removed, giving airlines some pretty extensive flexibility depending on how their routes/company evolves over the years or if they need to change things.

Obviously the ACT-approach to the LR is less efficient volume-wise, and the weight ratings of the aircraft are also different. Based on those differences, the XLR will be more expensive to acquire and operate than the LR. Due to the reduction in cargo/luggage volume, XLR's are likely going to be used exclusively in non-dense configurations on long-range routes.

I said this years ago... if Airbus could sell the XLR with a decent sized order to an airline which was a serious NMA customer, it might be enough to crush the NMA program outright (since its margins were going to be razor thin to begin with, as a niche market.. at least for an expensive ground-up program). This is EXACTLY what they wanted. I'd expect other airlines which were holding out to connect the dots and jump on the XLR as well, since it's clearly the only game in town, and delivery slots for A32Xs are getting WAY far out.
 
estorilm
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:56 pm

Keep in mind, people said this thing was supposed to be a niche aircraft with sales totaling around 500 aircraft from what I recall when it was revealed a while ago. What is it at now? I'm honestly shocked at just how strong the demand is for it.

No one is ordering them in large numbers, but just about EVERYONE is ordering them in batches of 10-50 to support some really unique and juicy routes. It's adding up QUICK. As far as I'm concerned, every one of those planes should have been an NMA. You can't take 350+ planes out of the NMA program, it's just not remotely possible... that program is absolutely finished (and I hate to say it, but brilliant and targeted marketing foresight and engineering by Airbus single-handily achieved this).
 
capitalflyer
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:01 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks for your thoughts on this. I just don't see 100 MAX 10 covering all their needs. A321NEO is sold out for a while and XLR won't get delivered until 2024. The question for me is what UA will do after that. In another 5 years, the domestic market will upgauge more, which means fewer A320/MAX8 and more MAX10/A321NEO. The economics of A320NEO is a lot worse than A321NEO. If they are already getting this large of XLR order and looking to have a balance of Airbus/Boeing in their narrowbody fleet (good for negotiation), then I don't think they will stop at XLR. For Airbus, they really just need to get in the door with this order and hope that UA likes the product and buys more NEOs in the future.

I think 787-8 is going to get killed on these lower volume TATL routes by A321XLR. Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8 + both B6 and AA will be flying A321XLR from Northeast to TATL. If you are trying out a new route with unknown demand or find replacement on a seasonal tourism market, are you more likely to fill a 250 seat aircraft or a 150 seat aircraft? Or 5x weekly/daily with 150 seat aircraft or 3x weekly with 250 seat aircraft.


Your response just brought back something UA executives said some time ago which is UA needs larger aircraft at hubs like EWR, SFO, and ORD. I just imagined that the MAX10 would fill those rolls dometically. After reading your response and other peoples response you all may have a point that there is room for both the MAX10 and A321NEO within UA's domestic fleet. However I still believe in the future there will still be a need for an aircraft within the 150 to 166 seat range, which is the space our A320s and 738s currently occupy.

As far as the the A321XLR, I think it is perfect for lower volume routes from EWR and IAD on a year round basis. As a matter of fact this morning Kirby was telling employees here at Willis when these aircraft are delivered there are at least 15 - 20 TATL routes not currently served by UA that UA would be able to serve profitably from both EWR and IAD. (I took his statement to also include long thin TATL routes UA has canceled in the past)

The issue I have with the A321XLR is UA utilizes our 763s on a lot of TATL trunk routes and South America route, many are not low volume routes. On these routes the especially our cargo heavy routes the A321XLR can not replace the 763. This is why I believe UA will either buy or lease 15-20 additional 788s because by 2025-2026 our oldest 763s will need to be retired and UA will need an aircraft of similar size to replace some of those 763s. I know in the past Airbus has tried to get UA to order some A330s as a replacement for part of our 763 fleet. I don't see UA order that fleet type but I do see UA replacing some 763s with 788s.


EWR:

BFS
NCL
BHX
GLA
SNN
EDI
OSL Daily
CPH Daily
ARN Daily
AMS Second Daily
KEF
OPO
MAD Second Daily


IAD

MAD
AMS
DUB
VIE
FCO
WAW
PRG
BUD
BER
MAN
EDI
BCN
NCE
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27170
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
I thought we read UA already had purchased A350 sims?


Yes they have purchased them for their Denver Flight Training Center, but not sure if they have arrived as of yet.

That being said, American Airlines has an A350 simulator at their Dallas Training Center even though they are no longer an A350 customer. They instead sell time on it to other A350 customers - mainly Delta.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4989
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:10 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
Could we see the XLR on DEN-HNL in addition to EWR and IAD TATL?

I would doubt DEN-HNL but LAS-HNL, SEA-HNL or PDX-HNL? added to the midnight trans-cons that land at IAD,EWR and ORD. I could see that 0530 in the morning for the Early AM west coast bank? I could see that. or I could see them coming from Hawaii via LAX,SFO, PDX, and SEA heading to ORD, EWR, and IAD then turning for LHR, FRA CDG.. But that depends on the range and uplift and if they're able to take any cargo as all United Airplanes will have to fly cargo revenue as well. I wonder if they'll be able to install the articulating cargo loading system we have in all the other narrow-bodies. With the length of that airplane I would think it essential. I'm sure they'll never use or buy the cans like Air Canada uses.
 
User avatar
UA744
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed May 16, 2018 6:35 pm

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:12 pm

Great order for United. The A321XLR and LR appear to be the only real replacements for the 757-200, especially 757s deployed on longer routes. While they do sacrifice some cargo capacity and takeoff performance, the capacity and range of the XLR in particular makes it the best choice possible. Personally I don't see United operating the A350-900 as they already converted the order from the -1000 to the -900 due to lack of need, and the 787-9/10 (depending on the route) looks like a better replacement for the 777-200/200ERs in UAL's fleet considering it has commonality with the 777 and 787s already in the fleet. If my prediction turns out to be correct, perhaps United would consider ordering 787s with Rolls Royce engines to keep them happy? They already operate A319s with both IAE and CFM engines.
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:16 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
jayunited wrote:

Your response just brought back something UA executives said some time ago which is UA needs larger aircraft at hubs like EWR, SFO, and ORD. I just imagined that the MAX10 would fill those rolls dometically. After reading your response and other peoples response you all may have a point that there is room for both the MAX10 and A321NEO within UA's domestic fleet. However I still believe in the future there will still be a need for an aircraft within the 150 to 166 seat range, which is the space our A320s and 738s currently occupy.

As far as the the A321XLR, I think it is perfect for lower volume routes from EWR and IAD on a year round basis. As a matter of fact this morning Kirby was telling employees here at Willis when these aircraft are delivered there are at least 15 - 20 TATL routes not currently served by UA that UA would be able to serve profitably from both EWR and IAD. (I took his statement to also include long thin TATL routes UA has canceled in the past)

The issue I have with the A321XLR is UA utilizes our 763s on a lot of TATL trunk routes and South America route, many are not low volume routes. On these routes the especially our cargo heavy routes the A321XLR can not replace the 763. This is why I believe UA will either buy or lease 15-20 additional 788s because by 2025-2026 our oldest 763s will need to be retired and UA will need an aircraft of similar size to replace some of those 763s. I know in the past Airbus has tried to get UA to order some A330s as a replacement for part of our 763 fleet. I don't see UA order that fleet type but I do see UA replacing some 763s with 788s.


EWR:

BFS
NCL
BHX
GLA
SNN
EDI
OSL Daily
CPH Daily
ARN Daily
AMS Second Daily
KEF
OPO
MAD Second Daily


IAD

MAD
AMS
DUB
VIE
FCO
WAW
PRG
BUD
BER
MAN
EDI
BCN
NCE


I agree. I left out certain routes from my EWR list because some routes have been upgraded to 787-10’s such as DUB, BCN and 767-400’s such as MAN and AMS.

For the winter season, BCN 120/121 is now a 767-300.

I like the A321XLR order but it still leaves many questions unanswered.

767 fleet replacement

757-300 replacement

Heavy trunk routes out of EWR that requires more cargo lift than range. (EWR - LIM, PTY, PUJ, SDQ,)
 
tphuang
Posts: 5215
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:30 pm

Pinto wrote:
1. The posts says it will fit 170 so probably will have 16J. I would be surprised to see Premium Economy on these aircraft.

2. I think we will see United holdout on any WB order until we hear a an answer about a 767-X. They have a decent backlog of 787 orders. They also might want to see how long this MAX ordeal goes to try to get some discounts on some 787


Nothing prevents them from having 2 versions. 757-200 has a 16J and 28J version. Y+ is different from premium economy.

I think the TATL market will look a lot different 10 years from now. widebody was pretty common in transcon market before and now it's only reserved for a few flights on NYC-LAX/SFO market. Outside of LHR, a lot of the secondary market can be right sized to A321XLR or have additional flights. 767 has no place in this new reality. You either go with the real large suites (on A350/777) in business class that can get premium over the regular lie flats or you go with the lie flats in single aisle aircraft that's a lot more space efficient and lower cost. 4 in a row config like the ones on 767-width cabins don't have the real estate to compete against 4 in a row on 777.



EWR:

BFS
NCL
BHX
GLA
SNN
EDI
OSL Daily
CPH Daily
ARN Daily
AMS Second Daily
KEF
OPO
MAD Second Daily



IAD

MAD
AMS
DUB
VIE
FCO
WAW
PRG
BUD
BER
MAN

exactly what I'm talking about. XLR allows the subdaily to go daily. it allows you a second daily to be added to the market that can support them. And you can support year round service on the thin routes.

XLR will over time replace the need of many B767/787.
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