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rbavfan
Posts: 3629
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:21 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Pinto wrote:

1) A normal UA 767 has 30 J seats, way too many for a 321XLR with a 170 seat total
2) Define cheap seats
3) Also these are probably going to replace the 757-200s 1-1


1) To many of these leisure locations, you don't need 30 J. 321XLR can easily seat 24 J and still have a good mix of Y/Y+. A 24J + 123 Y/Y+ arrangement seems enough seat for some these markets. What kind of yield are getting for those additional 6 J seats to markets like Naples and Palermo? A321XLR is the right sized aircraft for a lot of these markets.

2) For leisure markets, most of the Y seats are cheap seats. Less Y seat to fill means less discounted Y fare buckets and less connections needed to fill those seats. It's not hard to fathom that filling 123 Y/Y+ seats will be getting a huge premium over 184 seat, right?

3) Not all of the B757-200 are used for 7+ hours flights. All the 757-200 used on domestic transcon which don't need A321XLR range (including all the 28J + some 16J configs). Those are probably getting replaced by MAX 10. You don't need A321XLR range for those missions. I don't even know if west coast to HI needs A321XLR. MAX can probably do those missions too. XLR is best suited for EWR/IAD to Europe + IAH to South America type of routes.

jayunited wrote:
In my opinion as long as the MAX10 order still exist I don't see UA ordering the A321NEO. The MAX10 is supposed to filled the space an A321NEO would fill, I don't see a need for both in the domestic fleet because the MAX10 can be configured for premium heavy domestic routes. I can see UA maybe order the A320NEO as a replacement for our current A320s but with the MAX 10 still on the books I don't see an A321NEO order happening.

Having said that I do believe you are correct about the A321XLR usefulness on some leisure routes, I do think this aircraft will allow UA to extend the season on some many of these routes converting them from seasonal to year around. But at the same time I think we will see UA either lease or buy an additional 15-20 Boeing 788s with delieveries beginning in 2024 as a replacement for our oldest 763s because not all of our non premium European 763 routes can be replaced with an A321XLR.


Thanks for your thoughts on this. I just don't see 100 MAX 10 covering all their needs. A321NEO is sold out for a while and XLR won't get delivered until 2024. The question for me is what UA will do after that. In another 5 years, the domestic market will upgauge more, which means fewer A320/MAX8 and more MAX10/A321NEO. The economics of A320NEO is a lot worse than A321NEO. If they are already getting this large of XLR order and looking to have a balance of Airbus/Boeing in their narrowbody fleet (good for negotiation), then I don't think they will stop at XLR. For Airbus, they really just need to get in the door with this order and hope that UA likes the product and buys more NEOs in the future.

I think 787-8 is going to get killed on these lower volume TATL routes by A321XLR. Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8 + both B6 and AA will be flying A321XLR from Northeast to TATL. If you are trying out a new route with unknown demand or find replacement on a seasonal tourism market, are you more likely to fill a 250 seat aircraft or a 150 seat aircraft? Or 5x weekly/daily with 150 seat aircraft or 3x weekly with 250 seat aircraft.

24J? No way these planes will have that much if they seat 170. UA's 757's currently have 16J and seat 169.



Look at the actual cabin length on the A321 vs the 757. The 757 is longer but also has a much longer tail section. The 757 cabin length is 118' 5", the A321 cabin length is 112' 9". 75" is only 2 rows fewer passengers 3 door, 2 OWE layouts. 32" seating would be 2 rows less & 31" 3 rows less, but some seating could be partly in door area. So yes 170 vs 185 would be correct.
 
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767333ER
Posts: 1171
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:25 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
The 757 is known as the Ferrari. No one buys a Ferrari for it's cost efficiency. But both the 757 and Ferrari are a hell of a ride. Neither the boring 737 or 320 will ever give such a feeling.

Go on an A319-115 on American out of an airport that has a short runway and it will be much the same feeling. Go on a 737-700 that has the -800’s engine rating on it and again it will feel much the same off a short runway.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
United1
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:30 pm

zkojq wrote:


United1 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
When did UA ever had A330s?


UA owned three (I think) that were leased to Air Canada. UA never operated the A330 series itself.


Which ones?

I would have to do some digging in order to find the registrations. Net net that was part of the way AC fended off a hostile takeover at the time by AA/CP/Onex. UA and LH made cash available to AC, via lines of credit, equity and the sale and leaseback of the A330 that we are talking about, which used the money to purchase CP.

October 19, 1999
UNITED AIRLINES PRESS RELEASE


CHICAGO, October 19, 1999 - UAL Corporation (NYSE: UAL) announced today that it and Deutsche Lufthansa AG have agreed to provide a financial package of up to Cdn$730 million for Air Canada and will amend their alliance agreements to solidify Air Canada's place in Star Alliance, a partnership of the world's leading airlines.
UAL's investment will be made through the purchase of Air Canada non-voting convertible preferred shares, an aircraft sale and leaseback agreement and a guaranteed credit facility.
"We're pleased to announce this agreement which supports Canada's leading airline," said James E. Goodwin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of UAL Corporation and United Airlines. "Air Canada is an extremely important member of Star Alliance. This agreement will ensure that the customers we mutually serve will continue to benefit from the extensive travel network created by our alliance."
Under the agreement announced today, UAL and Lufthansa will:
· Through a joint venture, take up Air Canada's newly-issued perpetual convertible preferred shares in the amount of Cdn$230 million. The joint venture will be held 60 per cent by Lufthansa and 40 per cent by UAL.
· Amend their code-share and other agreements with Air Canada by, among other things, extending their term until the end of 2009.

In addition, UAL Corporation will:
· Purchase from, and lease back to, Air Canada three Airbus A330 aircraft, for which UAL will invest approximately Cdn$190 million.
· Commit to guarantee a Cdn$160 million credit facility for Air Canada. Lufthansa also plans to make a credit facility available for Air Canada.

UAL Corporation is the holding company whose primary subsidiary is United Airlines. United is the world's largest airline, and the largest majority-employee owned company in the United States. It operates more than 2,400 daily flights on a route network that spans the globe.
Star Alliance was established in May, 1997. It brings together some of the world's leading airlines in a partnership designed to provide customers with the benefits of global reach and seamless travel. Current members are: Air Canada, Air New Zealand, All Nippon Airways, Ansett Australia, Lufthansa, Scandinavian Airlines System - SAS, Thai Airways International, United Airlines and Varig Brazilian Airlines. Joining Star in future will be the Austrian Airlines Aviation Group, Mexicana Airlines and Singapore Airlines.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
9Patch
Posts: 615
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 5:01 pm

zkojq wrote:
9Patch wrote:
GE was working under the same development schedule and didn't enter "never ending cycle of technical problems."


Once again a.net's memory is being very selective and conveniently forgets all the GENX problems.... :roll:


I think you're the one with a selective memory. Could you please remind us what ALL the GNEX problems were? Did any of them require airlines to ground their 787s for months waiting for a fix? :eyepopping:
 
cledaybuck
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Sun Dec 08, 2019 5:27 pm

rbavfan wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
tphuang wrote:

1) To many of these leisure locations, you don't need 30 J. 321XLR can easily seat 24 J and still have a good mix of Y/Y+. A 24J + 123 Y/Y+ arrangement seems enough seat for some these markets. What kind of yield are getting for those additional 6 J seats to markets like Naples and Palermo? A321XLR is the right sized aircraft for a lot of these markets.

2) For leisure markets, most of the Y seats are cheap seats. Less Y seat to fill means less discounted Y fare buckets and less connections needed to fill those seats. It's not hard to fathom that filling 123 Y/Y+ seats will be getting a huge premium over 184 seat, right?

3) Not all of the B757-200 are used for 7+ hours flights. All the 757-200 used on domestic transcon which don't need A321XLR range (including all the 28J + some 16J configs). Those are probably getting replaced by MAX 10. You don't need A321XLR range for those missions. I don't even know if west coast to HI needs A321XLR. MAX can probably do those missions too. XLR is best suited for EWR/IAD to Europe + IAH to South America type of routes.



Thanks for your thoughts on this. I just don't see 100 MAX 10 covering all their needs. A321NEO is sold out for a while and XLR won't get delivered until 2024. The question for me is what UA will do after that. In another 5 years, the domestic market will upgauge more, which means fewer A320/MAX8 and more MAX10/A321NEO. The economics of A320NEO is a lot worse than A321NEO. If they are already getting this large of XLR order and looking to have a balance of Airbus/Boeing in their narrowbody fleet (good for negotiation), then I don't think they will stop at XLR. For Airbus, they really just need to get in the door with this order and hope that UA likes the product and buys more NEOs in the future.

I think 787-8 is going to get killed on these lower volume TATL routes by A321XLR. Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8 + both B6 and AA will be flying A321XLR from Northeast to TATL. If you are trying out a new route with unknown demand or find replacement on a seasonal tourism market, are you more likely to fill a 250 seat aircraft or a 150 seat aircraft? Or 5x weekly/daily with 150 seat aircraft or 3x weekly with 250 seat aircraft.

24J? No way these planes will have that much if they seat 170. UA's 757's currently have 16J and seat 169.



Look at the actual cabin length on the A321 vs the 757. The 757 is longer but also has a much longer tail section. The 757 cabin length is 118' 5", the A321 cabin length is 112' 9". 75" is only 2 rows fewer passengers 3 door, 2 OWE layouts. 32" seating would be 2 rows less & 31" 3 rows less, but some seating could be partly in door area. So yes 170 vs 185 would be correct.

169 total. Not 169 + 16J.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 5:55 pm

zkojq wrote:
Fascinating to see how the A321XLR and A321LR are shaking up the Transatlantic market. Established fatcats like AA and UA have ordered lots of them. Smaller minnows like EI, TP and TS ordered and have taken delivery. Disruptors like PF and WW ordered, took delivery and subsequently collapsed (not due to the plane). Larger and more financially solid disruptors like FR and W6 have substantial orders too and will likely further disrupt the market. The aircraft will even allow companies like OK who were forced out of the Transatlantic market to have a decent chance of making a success out of returning.

Really amazing plane overall - an unmitigated success from Airbus. It will make them and their customers a lot of money. Over the coming months and years it will be really interesting to see how the other players respond:

- BA can probably get away without ordering any since slot availability at LHR will protect them. And anyway, IAG can/will surely use EI to open smaller ports.

- AF could open a lot of smaller ports on the east coast of North America.

- LH's hubs are too far east for the A321XLR to open up as many routes as it does for other carriers, and they already operate to lots of less busy Transatlantic ports like PHL, TPA and CLT anyway. However once SN's current issues are fixed, I can definitely see LH Group ordering them some XLRs both for North America and Atlantic operations.

- Icelandair will surely be forced to order some. They're not going to be able to compete against this aircraft with old 757s for too much longer.

- DL will be under pressure to convert some of their order to XLRs.


scbriml wrote:
STT757 wrote:

That doesn’t make any sense since the order didn’t take any A350s off the books.They are definitely taking delivery of the A321XLR as their 752s are in need of replacement.


It is surprising and amusing in equal measure why so many here seem to be horrified at the prospect of United operating A350s. But for some, it seems all logic and reason is lost in the pathological fear of United buying and operating Airbus planes. Very curious. :confused:

Keep in mind that the one calling the A350 a mess is the same guy who says it cannot fly LAX-SYD. ;)


United1 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
When did UA ever had A330s?


UA owned three (I think) that were leased to Air Canada. UA never operated the A330 series itself.


Which ones?
9Patch wrote:
GE was working under the same development schedule and didn't enter "never ending cycle of technical problems."


Once again a.net's memory is being very selective and conveniently forgets all the GENX problems.... :roll:

ikramerica wrote:
But the current A350 isn’t in the cards anymore.


But it is on the orderbooks....


Delta has some of the last 752's off the line, so I don't see why they'd be "under pressure" to convert in the immediate term. Their top priorities are the much older domestic 752's and early 90's A320's, so the regular NEO should be fine there.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
jagraham
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:02 pm

scbriml wrote:
jayunited wrote:
While 50 A321XLRs is a small order and there could still be an NMA order or an A321XLR/NEO top up order. UA's 50 frame order is a shot across Boeings bow. UA is letting Boeing know they can not wait indefinitely for an NMA decision and will turn to Airbus if Boeing continues to drag out this process.


Aside from the huge significance of it, an order for 50 of the largest single-aisle planes available hardly constitutes a 'small order' and spending around $3.5billion (at discounted prices) is a very expensive way to ask Boeing to hurry up.


AA spent more on the original NEO, which is what finally pushed Boeing to do the MAX . .
I for one hope Boeing remembers its history
 
jagraham
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:11 pm

Higher frequencies on international routes will be few and far between. Even to Europe, with Open Skies, crowding prevents adding significant frequencies.
Frequency works in the USA for the most part - but there is a reason for those 772A HD planes - but not internationally.
UA will replace the 40 752 international planes on a 1 for 1 basis and take the seating hit for the most part (and yes there will be a seating hit changing from a 752 to an A321, although it won't be much) then use the last 10 for expansion. The 763s will be replaced by something else. Later, since they are being reconfigured right now.
 
tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:51 pm

jagraham wrote:
(and yes there will be a seating hit changing from a 752 to an A321, although it won't be much) .


Somehow AA doesn't seem to know going 752 to A321N reduces seatcount and put up to 20 seats more in, and ends up just 13 short of their 763.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
ikramerica
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:57 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
(and yes there will be a seating hit changing from a 752 to an A321, although it won't be much) .


Somehow AA doesn't seem to know going 752 to A321N reduces seatcount and put up to 20 seats more in, and ends up just 13 short of their 763.

Best regards
Thomas

In international config with galleys you take a hit. In AAs no frills sardine can, not so much.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:18 pm

ikramerica wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
(and yes there will be a seating hit changing from a 752 to an A321, although it won't be much) .


Somehow AA doesn't seem to know going 752 to A321N reduces seatcount and put up to 20 seats more in, and ends up just 13 short of their 763.

Best regards
Thomas

In international config with galleys you take a hit. In AAs no frills sardine can, not so much.


JetBlue doesn't have galleys on their MINT A321? And those still have an L2 door and more seat pitch in Y.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
mcg
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:14 pm

One of the impacts put forth as a result of UA's purchase of the XLR is increased flying to secondary and tertiary airports in Europe. If XLR is replacing 752 on a one for one basis, the number of available narrowbody trans Atlantic capable aircraft is unchanged. Why would more flying to secondary airports result because of adding the XLR to UA's fleet?
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:19 pm

mcg wrote:
One of the impacts put forth as a result of UA's purchase of the XLR is increased flying to secondary and tertiary airports in Europe. If XLR is replacing 752 on a one for one basis, the number of available narrowbody trans Atlantic capable aircraft is unchanged. Why would more flying to secondary airports result because of adding the XLR to UA's fleet?

There really isn't that many 752 flying tatl. Most of them are doing transcons, which will be replaced by max10 most likely. Xlr are going to replace more than 752.
 
ikramerica
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:23 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Somehow AA doesn't seem to know going 752 to A321N reduces seatcount and put up to 20 seats more in, and ends up just 13 short of their 763.

Best regards
Thomas

In international config with galleys you take a hit. In AAs no frills sardine can, not so much.


JetBlue doesn't have galleys on their MINT A321? And those still have an L2 door and more seat pitch in Y.

Best regards
Thomas

10 fewer seats and less galley and closet space on Mint vs DL/UA lie flat 752.

Also mint has less pitch in J/Suite.

The point is that the A321 is not a viable replacement for 230 seat aircraft. It’s capable but small. It is good enough for a 757 replacement, something many people on anet were claiming wasn’t needed until Airbus offered it.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
United1
Posts: 4194
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:32 pm

mcg wrote:
One of the impacts put forth as a result of UA's purchase of the XLR is increased flying to secondary and tertiary airports in Europe. If XLR is replacing 752 on a one for one basis, the number of available narrowbody trans Atlantic capable aircraft is unchanged. Why would more flying to secondary airports result because of adding the XLR to UA's fleet?


UA only uses about half of the RR 752 fleet on international routes with the rest of the RR fleet and the PW powered 752s flying between EWR/BOS-SFO/LAX. There has been a lot of chatter about a 737-10 P.S. style configuration taking over for the 752 on transcon routes and being used to add additional domestic premium flying.

My bet is you will see UA start to take delivery of a P.S. style 737-10 next year to finish replacing the PW 752, allow UA to add additional P.S. markets and let them transition RR 752s back to transatlantic secondary markets. Come 2024 the A321XLRs start to replace the RR 752s on secondary routes and can be used for a bit of growth in that market as well.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
jagraham
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:31 am

tommy1808 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
(and yes there will be a seating hit changing from a 752 to an A321, although it won't be much) .


Somehow AA doesn't seem to know going 752 to A321N reduces seatcount and put up to 20 seats more in, and ends up just 13 short of their 763.

Best regards
Thomas


AA is the same airline that buys a new 788 and only puts in 20 J seats . .
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15100
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:10 am

jagraham wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
(and yes there will be a seating hit changing from a 752 to an A321, although it won't be much) .


Somehow AA doesn't seem to know going 752 to A321N reduces seatcount and put up to 20 seats more in, and ends up just 13 short of their 763.

Best regards
Thomas


AA is the same airline that buys a new 788 and only puts in 20 J seats . .

AA is not worth talking about when it comes to 1:1 replacement. They don’t do it. They use the opportunity to cram in more seats in less space. Which makes one dread new AC on AA. Their MAX configurations are ridiculous.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4385
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:18 am

Another somewhat related question: the EU3 have retired all their 767s, but how many of the US3's 767 routes are actually outside of the range of the A321XLR? I know that DL has a few based in SEA which fly to Asia, and that UAL has a few that fly deep into South America, but what other 767 routes are outside of the A321XLR's range?


United1 wrote:


Thanks.

9Patch wrote:
I think you're the one with a selective memory. Could you please remind us what ALL the GNEX problems were?



Sure. The GENX has had plenty of problems. Icing issues mainly:

https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance ... 1b-engines
Operators of Boeing 787s powered by upgraded General Electric GEnx-1Bs are grinding out additional space in their engine fan cases to prevent contact with the fan blades in the event of shedding ice or some other contact with a foreign object.

The work is mandated by an April 22 FAA airworthiness directive (AD), which GE says will require rework on 336 GEnx-1B Performance Improvement Package-2 (PIP2) engines that power 168 787-8 and 787-9s.

The AD was prompted by an inflight shutdown that occurred after an aircraft flew through icing conditions at 20,000 ft. on Jan. 29. The FAA said the engine encountered “a significant fan rub event . . . apparently caused by partial fan ice shedding and a resulting fan imbalance that in turn caused substantial damage to the engine and an inflight non-restartable power loss.”

GE, Boeing and the FAA believe the problem was caused by the fan rebounding forward into the abradable seal after shedding the ice and that this will be prevented by opening up slightly more space between the fan and forward seal. The affected engines will therefore require the grinding out of extra depth—less than 0.10 in.—of the abradable seal material running along the interior of the fan case immediately forward of the fan blades. The profile of this seal is slightly different in the PIP2 from earlier GEnx-1Bs, but GE said any performance losses resulting from increasing the slight opening will be “immeasurable.”



https://www.mro-network.com/airlines/ic ... -over-genx

Operators of GEnx-powered 787s and 747-8s have been warned about the risk of ice crystals forming in the engines at high altitude. Airlines including Lufthansa, United Airlines and Japan Airlines have been told by Boeing not to fly within 50nm of high-altitude thunderstorms following six incidents this year in which GEnx engines lost power. Japan Airlines has removed 787s from Tokyo-Delhi and Tokyo-Singapore routes as a result.

How do you even operate through the ICTZ if you can't fly within 50nm of a thunderstorm?


Dual rollbacks:
http://avherald.com/h?article=4c62d4df&opt=0

Dual surges/shutdowns:
http://avherald.com/h?article=46679ba1&opt=0

Metallic Chips:
http://avherald.com/h?article=49c43af1&opt=0

Shutdowns:
http://avherald.com/h?article=480a80fd&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4808f258&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=48e39eca&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4931b20e&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4939fd29&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=49aec765&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=49f44548&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4a053856&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4b997d46&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bc2fd50&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bb1ab1d&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c677878&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4ce5bc38&opt=0

Oil Problems:
http://avherald.com/h?article=47862e6f&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4713abba&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=481b1727&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=485c7ecf&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=48d11666&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4910f413&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=49423571&opt=0

Plenty of issues overall - just because they haven't had big uncontained failures which make for pretty pictures in the media like RR have, doesn't mean there aren't issues. I can also think of a local 787GE operator with a fleet of less than a dozen that had 27 unscheduled engine changes in their first five years of operations. And anyway, GE are much better at playing the media game.
First to fly the 787-9
 
9Patch
Posts: 615
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:47 am

zkojq wrote:
Another somewhat related question: the EU3 have retired all their 767s, but how many of the US3's 767 routes are actually outside of the range of the A321XLR? I know that DL has a few based in SEA which fly to Asia, and that UAL has a few that fly deep into South America, but what other 767 routes are outside of the A321XLR's range?


United1 wrote:


Thanks.

9Patch wrote:
I think you're the one with a selective memory. Could you please remind us what ALL the GNEX problems were?



Sure. The GENX has had plenty of problems. Icing issues mainly:

https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance ... 1b-engines
Operators of Boeing 787s powered by upgraded General Electric GEnx-1Bs are grinding out additional space in their engine fan cases to prevent contact with the fan blades in the event of shedding ice or some other contact with a foreign object.

The work is mandated by an April 22 FAA airworthiness directive (AD), which GE says will require rework on 336 GEnx-1B Performance Improvement Package-2 (PIP2) engines that power 168 787-8 and 787-9s.

The AD was prompted by an inflight shutdown that occurred after an aircraft flew through icing conditions at 20,000 ft. on Jan. 29. The FAA said the engine encountered “a significant fan rub event . . . apparently caused by partial fan ice shedding and a resulting fan imbalance that in turn caused substantial damage to the engine and an inflight non-restartable power loss.”

GE, Boeing and the FAA believe the problem was caused by the fan rebounding forward into the abradable seal after shedding the ice and that this will be prevented by opening up slightly more space between the fan and forward seal. The affected engines will therefore require the grinding out of extra depth—less than 0.10 in.—of the abradable seal material running along the interior of the fan case immediately forward of the fan blades. The profile of this seal is slightly different in the PIP2 from earlier GEnx-1Bs, but GE said any performance losses resulting from increasing the slight opening will be “immeasurable.”



https://www.mro-network.com/airlines/ic ... -over-genx

Operators of GEnx-powered 787s and 747-8s have been warned about the risk of ice crystals forming in the engines at high altitude. Airlines including Lufthansa, United Airlines and Japan Airlines have been told by Boeing not to fly within 50nm of high-altitude thunderstorms following six incidents this year in which GEnx engines lost power. Japan Airlines has removed 787s from Tokyo-Delhi and Tokyo-Singapore routes as a result.

How do you even operate through the ICTZ if you can't fly within 50nm of a thunderstorm?


Dual rollbacks:
http://avherald.com/h?article=4c62d4df&opt=0

Dual surges/shutdowns:
http://avherald.com/h?article=46679ba1&opt=0

Metallic Chips:
http://avherald.com/h?article=49c43af1&opt=0

Shutdowns:
http://avherald.com/h?article=480a80fd&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4808f258&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=48e39eca&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4931b20e&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4939fd29&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=49aec765&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=49f44548&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4a053856&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4b997d46&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bc2fd50&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bb1ab1d&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c677878&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4ce5bc38&opt=0

Oil Problems:
http://avherald.com/h?article=47862e6f&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4713abba&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=481b1727&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=485c7ecf&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=48d11666&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4910f413&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=49423571&opt=0

Plenty of issues overall - just because they haven't had big uncontained failures which make for pretty pictures in the media like RR have, doesn't mean there aren't issues. I can also think of a local 787GE operator with a fleet of less than a dozen that had 27 unscheduled engine changes in their first five years of operations. And anyway, GE are much better at playing the media game.


Nice apples to oranges comparisons. And I see you're going for quantity to further muddy the waters.

It's pretty hard for RR to play the media game when their engines are grounded for months.

Since the problems first came to light, some 15 airlines have felt some effect, most notably ANA, LATAM, Virgin Atlantic, British Airways, Norwegian, and Air New Zealand. Virgin Atlantic, for one, expects to lease four Airbus A330-200s for at least a year to compensate for a shortage of Trent engines to power its 787-9s.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... olls-royce



When the Trent 1000 issues first arose, resulting in a peak of just under 50 airplanes parked worldwide, the FAA, EASA and other regulatory agencies either grounded airplanes pending inspection or required frequent inspects (depending on the specific issue), while also reducing ETOPS.
https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/22/rolls ... -possible/



“The Trent 1000 situation was very unusual in having multiple issues in one engine,” said East.

“It has of course caused a huge level of disruption for our customers…we sincerely regret this disruption, we want all those aircraft flying,” he added.

The episode looks set to cost the company at least £1.5 billion between 2017 and 2022, with £431 million spent in 2018 and £450 million envisaged during 2019.
https://www.mro-network.com/manufacturi ... 000-issues



Much much worse than icing issues.

Operators of Boeing 787s powered by upgraded General Electric GEnx-1Bs are grinding out additional space in their engine fan cases to prevent contact with the fan blades in the event of shedding ice or some other contact with a foreign object.

The work is mandated by an April 22 FAA airworthiness directive (AD), which GE says will require rework on 336 GEnx-1B Performance Improvement Package-2 (PIP2) engines that power 168 787-8 and 787-9s. The work, scheduled to be completed by September, can be done on-wing, but will entail up to 16 hr. of grinding per powerplant.
https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance ... 1b-engines
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:06 am

zkojq wrote:
United1 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
When did UA ever had A330s?

UA owned three (I think) that were leased to Air Canada. UA never operated the A330 series itself.

Which ones?

The A333s owned by UA were:
    C-GFAF
    C-GFAH
    C-GFAJ



LAOCA wrote:
The 789 is a hell of a lot smaller (capacity wise) than the 359 when you start flying over 6000nm. The only current UA equipment that can match it is the 73ER.

...huh?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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N14AZ
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:13 am

Maybe someone should turn around the thread title since the discussion is now almost exclusively about these A350‘s and not about these... what was it again? ... :scratchchin: ... hmmm ... Aah! :hyper: 50 A321XLR‘S!
 
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NYPECO
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:02 am

I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?
 
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:24 am

Thread has been cleaned up. May I remind you to stay on topic. Thanks.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:34 am

767333ER wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The 757 is known as the Ferrari. No one buys a Ferrari for it's cost efficiency. But both the 757 and Ferrari are a hell of a ride. Neither the boring 737 or 320 will ever give such a feeling.

Go on an A319-115 on American out of an airport that has a short runway and it will be much the same feeling. Go on a 737-700 that has the -800’s engine rating on it and again it will feel much the same off a short runway.


Been lucky enough to take two lightly-loaded charter A320 rides where full power/TOGA was used for departure. That thing is a rocket ship if you let it off the leash.
 
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:35 pm

Stitch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I thought we read UA already had purchased A350 sims?


Yes they have purchased them for their Denver Flight Training Center, but not sure if they have arrived as of yet.

That being said, American Airlines has an A350 simulator at their Dallas Training Center even though they are no longer an A350 customer. They instead sell time on it to other A350 customers - mainly Delta.


A few months ago we sold the sim, and it is off property now. (I believe it was sold to Delta but I am not sure about who actually bought it from us). But the point is definitely correct, that the sim being on property is not a deterrant to creating a new overall fleet strategy. I think UA does still end up with the A350 in 2027.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:14 pm

NYPECO wrote:
I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?


Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.
 
ikramerica
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:21 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?


Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.

More like 160 seats. With not as much galley/closet. But maybe some artful balancing could get more: 16/42/105 163.
As for the PS config, if they don’t use the max10, it would depend on the balance they want. AA only has 102 on their 32B config but UA hasn’t done a PS config like that for a while.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
TObound
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:47 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?


Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.


TAP's 321LRs are a good reference point here: 16J/42Y+/113Y. So clearly that's a close match to UA's 169 seat 752. Compare the layouts.

United 752:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Unite ... 0_Flat.php

TAP 321LR:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/TAP_P ... A321LR.php

So if those layouts are similar, I don't see why all of UA's 752 can't be replaced 1:1.
 
ikramerica
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:54 pm

TObound wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?


Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.


TAP's 321LRs are a good reference point here: 16J/42Y+/113Y. So clearly that's a close match to UA's 169 seat 752. Compare the layouts.

United 752:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Unite ... 0_Flat.php

TAP 321LR:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/TAP_P ... A321LR.php

So if those layouts are similar, I don't see why all of UA's 752 can't be replaced 1:1.

TAP seat pitch isn’t similar. Take out 6 seats in Y. And I don’t know how the J compares. Looks like MINT but with less listed pitch. Sestguru isn’t always right with their numbers.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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scbriml
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:17 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?


Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.


It doesn't really matter, does it? The XLR will be so much more efficient than the 757 that a few seats less wouldn't matter.
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CONTACREW
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:48 pm

TObound wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
I thought we're discussing the recent A321 order in this thread?


Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.


TAP's 321LRs are a good reference point here: 16J/42Y+/113Y. So clearly that's a close match to UA's 169 seat 752. Compare the layouts.

United 752:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Unite ... 0_Flat.php

TAP 321LR:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/TAP_P ... A321LR.php

So if those layouts are similar, I don't see why all of UA's 752 can't be replaced 1:1.


The 321XLR will replace the 16J RR 75 fleet
The MAX10 will replace the 28J PW 75 fleet
Flight Attendants prepare doors for departure, cross check verify straps standby for all call
 
TObound
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:54 pm

CONTACREW wrote:
TObound wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

Can the 50 A321 XLR replace one for one the 53 Boeing 757-200s with the same exact seating?
16 + 45 + 108 =169
28 + 42 +72 =142
I'm not sure if they have the same surface area.


TAP's 321LRs are a good reference point here: 16J/42Y+/113Y. So clearly that's a close match to UA's 169 seat 752. Compare the layouts.

United 752:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Unite ... 0_Flat.php

TAP 321LR:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/TAP_P ... A321LR.php

So if those layouts are similar, I don't see why all of UA's 752 can't be replaced 1:1.


The 321XLR will replace the 16J RR 75 fleet
The MAX10 will replace the 28J PW 75 fleet


Any idea why that is? Does the Max 10 have more cabin area than the 321NEO?
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:11 am

TObound wrote:
Any idea why that is? Does the Max 10 have more cabin area than the 321NEO?

It's because the A321XLR would be wasted on a transcon. It has far more range than the MAX 10.
 
Chemist
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:16 am

I guess United couldn't wait any longer. That's what Boeing gets for dinking around for a decade fretting about whether there is really a MOM market for a 757-capacity narrowbody. Well it seems that there is.
The is just another chapter in the situation where the beancounters I presume at Boeing screwed up the 787 project, delaying rollout and costing tens of extra $billions. And then the beancounters and management cheaped out on the 737 MAX development which further eroded any ability Boeing might have to launch a NMA. So Airbus wisely has come in and is handily mopping up on the lower MOM space. Good for them and shame on a once great US company.
 
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:27 am

Chemist wrote:
I guess United couldn't wait any longer. That's what Boeing gets for dinking around for a decade fretting about whether there is really a MOM market for a 757-capacity narrowbody. Well it seems that there is.


Considering MOM was designed to be a 767-capacity widebody, it would not have played in that space (that is the 737-10's market to general extent).

And perhaps UA decided that was not something they wanted even though they and Boeing have danced around it for years, first with the 767 and then with NMA. :scratchchin:
 
LGeneReese
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:01 am

Stitch wrote:
Chemist wrote:
I guess United couldn't wait any longer. That's what Boeing gets for dinking around for a decade fretting about whether there is really a MOM market for a 757-capacity narrowbody. Well it seems that there is.


Considering MOM was designed to be a 767-capacity widebody, it would not have played in that space (that is the 737-10's market to general extent).

And perhaps UA decided that was not something they wanted even though they and Boeing have danced around it for years, first with the 767 and then with NMA. :scratchchin:

UA desperately wants something to replace the 767... Boeing’s mythical MOM was/is theoretically perfect for this. But so far it’s nothing but 0s and 1s in a computer file. So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?
 
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:33 am

Stitch wrote:
Chemist wrote:
I guess United couldn't wait any longer. That's what Boeing gets for dinking around for a decade fretting about whether there is really a MOM market for a 757-capacity narrowbody. Well it seems that there is.


Considering MOM was designed to be a 767-capacity widebody, it would not have played in that space


The MoM has grown in the years from just bigger than the 737NG to a real 767 replacement.
 
tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:49 am

TObound wrote:
CONTACREW wrote:
TObound wrote:

TAP's 321LRs are a good reference point here: 16J/42Y+/113Y. So clearly that's a close match to UA's 169 seat 752. Compare the layouts.

United 752:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Unite ... 0_Flat.php

TAP 321LR:
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/TAP_P ... A321LR.php

So if those layouts are similar, I don't see why all of UA's 752 can't be replaced 1:1.


The 321XLR will replace the 16J RR 75 fleet
The MAX10 will replace the 28J PW 75 fleet


Any idea why that is? Does the Max 10 have more cabin area than the 321NEO?


it has less cabin space, in both dimensions, but lengthwise is only 15" shorter, so depending on layout you can get between zero to one row more into the A321.

Depending on the seat total this may just allow to lift more fuel to accomplish all missions they have in mind for their max-10.

best regards
Thomas
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Stitch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:15 pm

LGeneReese wrote:
UA desperately wants something to replace the 767... Boeing’s mythical MOM was/is theoretically perfect for this. But so far it’s nothing but 0s and 1s in a computer file. So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?


If UA was so desperate for it, why not commit to 50? That arguably could have forced Boeing's hand to launch it. And such a large launch order might have convinced AA and DL to commit, as well.
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:24 pm

LGeneReese wrote:
So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?

The 788 is exactly the right cabin size as a direct replacement, but despite the composites it's a much heavier airplane because it has the wing and structure to carry enough fuel for 8000nm segments.

On a common UA 767 transatlantic route, the 788 does not have the dramatic fuel savings one would expect. It's just too short to take advantage of the 787's design. The efficient engines and high weight cancel each other out on shorter segments.

This is why UA was even considering new 767s as they would cost less than 788s to buy. It's possible that Boeing may eventually offer fire-sale priced 788s to fill the gap, but at this point I'd even suspect small A330s could be a consideration as UA tries to find the Goldilocks airplane as the NMA appears to be dead.

I'm sure UA would strongly desire the possible 767 MAX (for lack of a better description), but who knows if Boeing is even a position to do that program AND the narrow body replacement?
 
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:40 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
TObound wrote:
Any idea why that is? Does the Max 10 have more cabin area than the 321NEO?

It's because the A321XLR would be wasted on a transcon. It has far more range than the MAX 10.


Do they only run 28J domestically?
 
tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:43 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
LGeneReese wrote:
So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?

The 788 is exactly the right cabin size as a direct replacement,


Isn't it some 40m2 bigger?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:46 pm

There really is nothing preventing them from having both 16J and 28J configured XLR. They just happen to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets. I would imagine with Max 10, it'd hard to fit 28J in there. Maybe 20 to 24?

But for TATL, you can use 16J XLR for more leisure markets and 24 to 28J configuration for more business oriented market. There is no reason XLR cannot replace 767s.
 
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
There really is nothing preventing them from having both 16J and 28J configured XLR. They just happen to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets. I would imagine with Max 10, it'd hard to fit 28J in there. Maybe 20 to 24?

But for TATL, you can use 16J XLR for more leisure markets and 24 to 28J configuration for more business oriented market. There is no reason XLR cannot replace 767s.

I think the number of markets that could support a high number of J seats but not a relatively high number of Y seats is very narrow. You yourself say United “just happen[s] to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets.” Why then would UA want to run 24-28J XLR international? They don’t use those 28J on international today and in your own words the TCON market they use them on is more premium than most TATL markets.

XLRs can replace some 767s, but there will still be markets requiring more pax or cargo volume than the XLR can support.

The Max10 isn’t much smaller than the A321 btw.
Last edited by Polot on Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
9Patch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:58 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
LGeneReese wrote:
So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?

The 788 is exactly the right cabin size as a direct replacement, but despite the composites it's a much heavier airplane because it has the wing and structure to carry enough fuel for 8000nm segments.


The 767 seats seven across in economy, the 787 seats nine!
 
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Revelation
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:59 pm

Stitch wrote:
LGeneReese wrote:
UA desperately wants something to replace the 767... Boeing’s mythical MOM was/is theoretically perfect for this. But so far it’s nothing but 0s and 1s in a computer file. So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?


If UA was so desperate for it, why not commit to 50? That arguably could have forced Boeing's hand to launch it. And such a large launch order might have convinced AA and DL to commit, as well.

The optimists among us still think UA, DL and AA might still end up being NMA launch customers. As mentioned above, both 788 and A338 are not optimal for what these carriers want to do, not to mention QF and others.
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:03 pm

9Patch wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
LGeneReese wrote:
So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?

The 788 is exactly the right cabin size as a direct replacement, but despite the composites it's a much heavier airplane because it has the wing and structure to carry enough fuel for 8000nm segments.


The 767 seats seven across in economy, the 787 seats nine!

From a capacity standpoint UA’s 788s are currently the 763’s best replacement. The 787 is completely overbuilt for 767 missions though.
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:04 pm

Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There really is nothing preventing them from having both 16J and 28J configured XLR. They just happen to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets. I would imagine with Max 10, it'd hard to fit 28J in there. Maybe 20 to 24?

But for TATL, you can use 16J XLR for more leisure markets and 24 to 28J configuration for more business oriented market. There is no reason XLR cannot replace 767s.

I think the number of markets that could support a high number of J seats but not a relatively high number of Y seats is very narrow. You yourself say United “just happen[s] to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets.” Why then would UA want to run 24-28J XLR international? They don’t use those 28J on international today and in your own words the TCON market they use them on is more premium than most TATL markets.

XLRs can replace some 767s, but there will still be markets requiring more pax or cargo volume than the XLR can support.

The Max10 isn’t much smaller than the A321 btw.

That's why you have 2 flights instead of one. Having a lower seat count aircraft allows you to right size the market to demand a lot better and run better schedule. If UA runs high J strategy on those 767s, there is no reason they can't do the same with XLR. And besides, why would they want to have that many Y seats? If a market supports high ratio of J to Y, then there is less Y seat need to be filled with lower yielding connection and heavy discount pricing. That seems to be great for margins.
 
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Polot
Posts: 10870
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:11 pm

tphuang wrote:
Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There really is nothing preventing them from having both 16J and 28J configured XLR. They just happen to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets. I would imagine with Max 10, it'd hard to fit 28J in there. Maybe 20 to 24?

But for TATL, you can use 16J XLR for more leisure markets and 24 to 28J configuration for more business oriented market. There is no reason XLR cannot replace 767s.

I think the number of markets that could support a high number of J seats but not a relatively high number of Y seats is very narrow. You yourself say United “just happen[s] to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets.” Why then would UA want to run 24-28J XLR international? They don’t use those 28J on international today and in your own words the TCON market they use them on is more premium than most TATL markets.

XLRs can replace some 767s, but there will still be markets requiring more pax or cargo volume than the XLR can support.

The Max10 isn’t much smaller than the A321 btw.

That's why you have 2 flights instead of one.

That is often easier said then done when we are talking about premium TATL markets. A lot of those markets are slot locked, and we all know EWR is bursting at the seams. If 2 flights are possible a smaller wide body + 16J XLR would be more likely than using a high premium XLR + widebody (and a single wide body likely makes more sense than 16J XLR + 28J XLR).

Also don’t discount the amount of money Y brings in for the airline.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:21 pm

Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Polot wrote:
I think the number of markets that could support a high number of J seats but not a relatively high number of Y seats is very narrow. You yourself say United “just happen[s] to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets.” Why then would UA want to run 24-28J XLR international? They don’t use those 28J on international today and in your own words the TCON market they use them on is more premium than most TATL markets.

XLRs can replace some 767s, but there will still be markets requiring more pax or cargo volume than the XLR can support.

The Max10 isn’t much smaller than the A321 btw.

That's why you have 2 flights instead of one.

That is often easier said then done when we are talking about premium TATL markets. A lot of those markets are slot locked, and we all know EWR is bursting at the seams. If 2 flights are possible a smaller wide body + 16J XLR would be more likely than using a high premium XLR + widebody (and a single wide body likely makes more sense than 16J XLR + 28J XLR).

Also don’t discount the amount of money Y brings in for the airline.

aside from LHR/AMS, other markets are not as slot constrained. UA has plenty of flights at EWR that it can move around flights to allow for optimal times for important TATL markets. Recent times, they have been adding quite a few new markets out of EWR with no problem. Why would adding a couple of frequency and turning other flights to have longer seasons or subdaily to daily be so hard to do? Also I don't think UA's EWR real estate is going to be as crowded for late night TATL departures as afternoon departure. IAD would have no such concerns at all.

If 2 flights are possible, you can run 2 XLRs. Why do you want to run 767 if XLR has lower CASM and fewer seat to fill. In the long run, if other carriers are flying XLR on the routes where UA is flying 767, UA is going to be running lower margins.
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