cledaybuck wrote:tphuang wrote:Pinto wrote:
1) A normal UA 767 has 30 J seats, way too many for a 321XLR with a 170 seat total
2) Define cheap seats
3) Also these are probably going to replace the 757-200s 1-1
1) To many of these leisure locations, you don't need 30 J. 321XLR can easily seat 24 J and still have a good mix of Y/Y+. A 24J + 123 Y/Y+ arrangement seems enough seat for some these markets. What kind of yield are getting for those additional 6 J seats to markets like Naples and Palermo? A321XLR is the right sized aircraft for a lot of these markets.
2) For leisure markets, most of the Y seats are cheap seats. Less Y seat to fill means less discounted Y fare buckets and less connections needed to fill those seats. It's not hard to fathom that filling 123 Y/Y+ seats will be getting a huge premium over 184 seat, right?
3) Not all of the B757-200 are used for 7+ hours flights. All the 757-200 used on domestic transcon which don't need A321XLR range (including all the 28J + some 16J configs). Those are probably getting replaced by MAX 10. You don't need A321XLR range for those missions. I don't even know if west coast to HI needs A321XLR. MAX can probably do those missions too. XLR is best suited for EWR/IAD to Europe + IAH to South America type of routes.jayunited wrote:In my opinion as long as the MAX10 order still exist I don't see UA ordering the A321NEO. The MAX10 is supposed to filled the space an A321NEO would fill, I don't see a need for both in the domestic fleet because the MAX10 can be configured for premium heavy domestic routes. I can see UA maybe order the A320NEO as a replacement for our current A320s but with the MAX 10 still on the books I don't see an A321NEO order happening.
Having said that I do believe you are correct about the A321XLR usefulness on some leisure routes, I do think this aircraft will allow UA to extend the season on some many of these routes converting them from seasonal to year around. But at the same time I think we will see UA either lease or buy an additional 15-20 Boeing 788s with delieveries beginning in 2024 as a replacement for our oldest 763s because not all of our non premium European 763 routes can be replaced with an A321XLR.
Thanks for your thoughts on this. I just don't see 100 MAX 10 covering all their needs. A321NEO is sold out for a while and XLR won't get delivered until 2024. The question for me is what UA will do after that. In another 5 years, the domestic market will upgauge more, which means fewer A320/MAX8 and more MAX10/A321NEO. The economics of A320NEO is a lot worse than A321NEO. If they are already getting this large of XLR order and looking to have a balance of Airbus/Boeing in their narrowbody fleet (good for negotiation), then I don't think they will stop at XLR. For Airbus, they really just need to get in the door with this order and hope that UA likes the product and buys more NEOs in the future.
I think 787-8 is going to get killed on these lower volume TATL routes by A321XLR. Remember, LNC has said A321XLR total unit cost is about the same as 787-8 + both B6 and AA will be flying A321XLR from Northeast to TATL. If you are trying out a new route with unknown demand or find replacement on a seasonal tourism market, are you more likely to fill a 250 seat aircraft or a 150 seat aircraft? Or 5x weekly/daily with 150 seat aircraft or 3x weekly with 250 seat aircraft.
24J? No way these planes will have that much if they seat 170. UA's 757's currently have 16J and seat 169.
Look at the actual cabin length on the A321 vs the 757. The 757 is longer but also has a much longer tail section. The 757 cabin length is 118' 5", the A321 cabin length is 112' 9". 75" is only 2 rows fewer passengers 3 door, 2 OWE layouts. 32" seating would be 2 rows less & 31" 3 rows less, but some seating could be partly in door area. So yes 170 vs 185 would be correct.