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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:23 pm

UA may wait to see if the 321XLR works out as advertised, then decide to up the order as a trade off to delay further or drop the 350. I don't see the 321XLR on transcons, rather UA could add the 321LR or standard 321neo to cover transcons if the max10s have range issues.
A potential swap of orders with Boeing to reduce Maxes and add 788 would match up with Airbus reducing/delaying the 350 and adding 321s.
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii and maybe be used on South American routes that the 757 operates or new SA routes between 73G and widebody range.
I would hope the lower operating cost of the 321XLR vs. 757 and slightly more range would allow restarting markets like CGN, DUS, STR, BFS, CPH plus maybe add more thinner European routes. Maybe some seasonal 767 routes could go to all year with downgrades in the winter to 321XLR and keep the 321XLR aircraft moving year-around.
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.
 
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Polot
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
[

If 2 flights are possible, you can run 2 XLRs. Why do you want to run 767 if XLR has lower CASM and fewer seat to fill. In the long run, if other carriers are flying XLR on the routes where UA is flying 767, UA is going to be running lower margins.

That is way to simplistic of a viewpoint, there are many factors you are not considering (ie loyalty, ground perks, connections, acquisition costs etc).

2 brand new XLRs is also not necessarily cheaper than 1 paid off 767 (or older 787/777/whatever).
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:34 pm

Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
[

If 2 flights are possible, you can run 2 XLRs. Why do you want to run 767 if XLR has lower CASM and fewer seat to fill. In the long run, if other carriers are flying XLR on the routes where UA is flying 767, UA is going to be running lower margins.

That is way to simplistic of a viewpoint, there are many factors you are not considering (ie loyalty, ground perks, connections, acquisition costs etc).

2 brand new XLRs is also not necessarily cheaper than 1 paid off 767 (or older 787/777/whatever).

by that logic, you should never buy any new aircraft.

The number of seats on an aircraft has no relation to loyalty, ground perks or connections. You could make the argument that widebody aircraft potential would have more real estate (therefore better) Business class suite. But my experience with UA 767 J cabin does not suggest at all a premium service.
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:39 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii...

Well, at least DEN-HNL.

I doubt the runways in LIH or OGG are long enough for the A321XLR to make it back to DEN. For comparison, the last time I flew LIH-DEN in the 757-200(RR) we departed on runway 3 (6500'), the runway was wet, and every seat was filled. It was also a reduced power takeoff. ;)

calpsafltskeds wrote:
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.

Indeed.
Last edited by airplanedriver6 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Polot
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
[

If 2 flights are possible, you can run 2 XLRs. Why do you want to run 767 if XLR has lower CASM and fewer seat to fill. In the long run, if other carriers are flying XLR on the routes where UA is flying 767, UA is going to be running lower margins.

That is way to simplistic of a viewpoint, there are many factors you are not considering (ie loyalty, ground perks, connections, acquisition costs etc).

2 brand new XLRs is also not necessarily cheaper than 1 paid off 767 (or older 787/777/whatever).

by that logic, you should never buy any new aircraft.

The number of seats on an aircraft has no relation to loyalty, ground perks or connections.

No, but loyalty/perks/connections/etc have a huge relation on the ticket prices you can charge. Which is ultimately part of what determines margin. It also has effect on how easy you can attract bums in the seats, which can play a role in the size of the aircraft used. The XLR also doesn’t have better projected CASM than all widebodies, it is projected to be on par with the 788/A338 (which have amongst the worse CASMs of current generation jets)...

I think most XLRs will be used to replace the international 757s and open up many of the smaller cities UA use to serve + a few more. While that can be a suitable replacement for some 767s (like I said earlier) due to market fragmentation I don’t think that will be the plane’s main role. I suspect United is behind the scenes still pressing for some form of a NMA or A322(probably rewinged).
 
9Patch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:50 pm

Polot wrote:
9Patch wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
The 788 is exactly the right cabin size as a direct replacement, but despite the composites it's a much heavier airplane because it has the wing and structure to carry enough fuel for 8000nm segments.


The 767 seats seven across in economy, the 787 seats nine!

From a capacity standpoint UA’s 788s are currently the 763’s best replacement. The 787 is completely overbuilt for 767 missions though.


I was addressing your comment, about the 787 being heavier than the 767 despite the composites.
Of course it is given its width.
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:37 pm

Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Polot wrote:
That is way to simplistic of a viewpoint, there are many factors you are not considering (ie loyalty, ground perks, connections, acquisition costs etc).

2 brand new XLRs is also not necessarily cheaper than 1 paid off 767 (or older 787/777/whatever).

by that logic, you should never buy any new aircraft.

The number of seats on an aircraft has no relation to loyalty, ground perks or connections.

No, but loyalty/perks/connections/etc have a huge relation on the ticket prices you can charge. Which is ultimately part of what determines margin. It also has effect on how easy you can attract bums in the seats, which can play a role in the size of the aircraft used. The XLR also doesn’t have better projected CASM than all widebodies, it is projected to be on par with the 788/A338 (which have amongst the worse CASMs of current generation jets)...

I think most XLRs will be used to replace the international 757s and open up many of the smaller cities UA use to serve + a few more. While that can be a suitable replacement for some 767s (like I said earlier) due to market fragmentation I don’t think that will be the plane’s main role. I suspect United is behind the scenes still pressing for some form of a NMA or A322(probably rewinged).

of course, but we are comparing how UA would do with XLR vs something else. If you think about it, if it can have a couple of % better CASM on total cost vs 787-8 and 330-800 (according to LNC), then it's certainly lower than 767 and probably not that far off from 339 or 789. That's bit deal when you have to sell 60% the number of seats.

The greatest argument against XLR are:
1) not enough capacity for slot restricted airport
2) range limitation vs widebodies
3) smaller J suite that can't really compete against what's offered on 777/A350.

Interesting enough to me that UA liked it enough where it thought there are a enough markets not limited by its range to have a new fleet type. If I had to guess Delta is the least likely carrier to order XLR due to 3). We will see if it happens.
 
LGeneReese
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:52 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
LGeneReese wrote:
So, from UA’s perspective, they may have to choose the next best fit... which I presume is the 788... yes?

The 788 is exactly the right cabin size as a direct replacement, but despite the composites it's a much heavier airplane because it has the wing and structure to carry enough fuel for 8000nm segments.

On a common UA 767 transatlantic route, the 788 does not have the dramatic fuel savings one would expect. It's just too short to take advantage of the 787's design. The efficient engines and high weight cancel each other out on shorter segments.

This is why UA was even considering new 767s as they would cost less than 788s to buy. It's possible that Boeing may eventually offer fire-sale priced 788s to fill the gap, but at this point I'd even suspect small A330s could be a consideration as UA tries to find the Goldilocks airplane as the NMA appears to be dead.

I'm sure UA would strongly desire the possible 767 MAX (for lack of a better description), but who knows if Boeing is even a position to do that program AND the narrow body replacement?

This is exactly why I was saying next best choice of existing aircraft... .Neither 788... or 330.... are good fits... but given no other options.... ?
 
CONTACREW
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:31 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
UA may wait to see if the 321XLR works out as advertised, then decide to up the order as a trade off to delay further or drop the 350. I don't see the 321XLR on transcons, rather UA could add the 321LR or standard 321neo to cover transcons if the max10s have range issues.
A potential swap of orders with Boeing to reduce Maxes and add 788 would match up with Airbus reducing/delaying the 350 and adding 321s.
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii and maybe be used on South American routes that the 757 operates or new SA routes between 73G and widebody range.
I would hope the lower operating cost of the 321XLR vs. 757 and slightly more range would allow restarting markets like CGN, DUS, STR, BFS, CPH plus maybe add more thinner European routes. Maybe some seasonal 767 routes could go to all year with downgrades in the winter to 321XLR and keep the 321XLR aircraft moving year-around.
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.


321XLR will operate from EWR/IAD no ORD.
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yeogeo
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:59 pm

CONTACREW wrote:
321XLR will operate from EWR/IAD no ORD.


Not necessarily.
The Chicago Business Journal reports that the United Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella, has said that the plane might also show up on some international routes flown out of UA's largest hub, O'Hare.
https://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/new ... plane.html

Currently UA flies, in total, two seasonal 757 ORD>near Europe routes (DUB & EDI) , so...
 
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Stitch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:25 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
On a common UA 767 transatlantic route, the 788 does not have the dramatic fuel savings one would expect. It's just too short to take advantage of the 787's design. The efficient engines and high weight cancel each other out on shorter segments.


UA's own data would dispute that claim:

Member HOWGOZIT provided flight plan data for UA947 AMS-IAD (767-300ER) and UA915 CDG-IAD (787-8) and the 767 burned 10,400kg more fuel (flight time was 23 minutes longer).

On the reverse (IAD to AMS/CDG), the 767 burned 6200kg more fuel (flight time was 13 minutes longer).
 
jayunited
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
That's why you have 2 flights instead of one. Having a lower seat count aircraft allows you to right size the market to demand a lot better and run better schedule. If UA runs high J strategy on those 767s, there is no reason they can't do the same with XLR. And besides, why would they want to have that many Y seats? If a market supports high ratio of J to Y, then there is less Y seat need to be filled with lower yielding connection and heavy discount pricing. That seems to be great for margins.


Throughout this thread you have consistently repeated the same point the A321XLR can replace the 763s . Most people would agree that on a limited number of routes the A321XLR could do that. However what you are not taking into account is the amount of cargo UA ships on our 763s, looking at just today's (December 10, 2019) schedule on our international 763 flights only UA is averaging around 16,000 pounds of cargo (not including any bags) on flight from the U.S.. On flights to the U.S. that operate on 763s UA is averaging around 21,000 pounds of cargo. Now there are international routes operating on 763s that are just passengers and bags only perhaps those routes are the routes you are referring to. But on our cargo heavy routes one or two A321XLRs can't replace a 763.

On a lot of international routes the shipper builds their own PMC, or LD3. Airlines like UA will deliver an empty pallet or container and the shipper will build it and deliver it to our cargo facility. This type of cargo can not be broken down by UA and in most cases have tamper seals which if broken cost UA or any airline a lot of money. If UA were to follow your advise it would mean walking away from a large portion of our cargo business. Anyone who has spent any amount of time working for UA understands that although UA is a passenger airline, cargo is still makes up portion of our business. Our 77Ws UA treats below the wing as a de facto freighter, in many cases planning 10 or 11 pallets of cargo on those flights in addition to the bags.
I don't want to over play the importance of cargo to UA but at the same time we can't just discount it all together as you are doing by saying the XLR can replace the 763s.
 
yoyo777
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:08 pm

CONTACREW wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
UA may wait to see if the 321XLR works out as advertised, then decide to up the order as a trade off to delay further or drop the 350. I don't see the 321XLR on transcons, rather UA could add the 321LR or standard 321neo to cover transcons if the max10s have range issues.
A potential swap of orders with Boeing to reduce Maxes and add 788 would match up with Airbus reducing/delaying the 350 and adding 321s.
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii and maybe be used on South American routes that the 757 operates or new SA routes between 73G and widebody range.
I would hope the lower operating cost of the 321XLR vs. 757 and slightly more range would allow restarting markets like CGN, DUS, STR, BFS, CPH plus maybe add more thinner European routes. Maybe some seasonal 767 routes could go to all year with downgrades in the winter to 321XLR and keep the 321XLR aircraft moving year-around.
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.


321XLR will operate from EWR/IAD no ORD.


That is probably the case. 321 doesn't seem to be able to reach much of the Europe from ORD.
 
mig17
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:42 pm

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's why you have 2 flights instead of one. Having a lower seat count aircraft allows you to right size the market to demand a lot better and run better schedule. If UA runs high J strategy on those 767s, there is no reason they can't do the same with XLR. And besides, why would they want to have that many Y seats? If a market supports high ratio of J to Y, then there is less Y seat need to be filled with lower yielding connection and heavy discount pricing. That seems to be great for margins.


Throughout this thread you have consistently repeated the same point the A321XLR can replace the 763s . Most people would agree that on a limited number of routes the A321XLR could do that. However what you are not taking into account is the amount of cargo UA ships on our 763s, looking at just today's (December 10, 2019) schedule on our international 763 flights only UA is averaging around 16,000 pounds of cargo (not including any bags) on flight from the U.S.. On flights to the U.S. that operate on 763s UA is averaging around 21,000 pounds of cargo. Now there are international routes operating on 763s that are just passengers and bags only perhaps those routes are the routes you are referring to. But on our cargo heavy routes one or two A321XLRs can't replace a 763.

On a lot of international routes the shipper builds their own PMC, or LD3. Airlines like UA will deliver an empty pallet or container and the shipper will build it and deliver it to our cargo facility. This type of cargo can not be broken down by UA and in most cases have tamper seals which if broken cost UA or any airline a lot of money. If UA were to follow your advise it would mean walking away from a large portion of our cargo business. Anyone who has spent any amount of time working for UA understands that although UA is a passenger airline, cargo is still makes up portion of our business. Our 77Ws UA treats below the wing as a de facto freighter, in many cases planning 10 or 11 pallets of cargo on those flights in addition to the bags.
I don't want to over play the importance of cargo to UA but at the same time we can't just discount it all together as you are doing by saying the XLR can replace the 763s.


You are saying UA is a pax airline but cargo still makes up portion of the business. That maybe true today, but how about tomorrow? The true question is how do you get the better margin?
With one widebody with average 80% pax LF and 5t of extra cargo per day. With the extra cost of handeling cargo at both ends and the extra fuel bill.
Or with two narrowbodies with average 90% pax LF each and cost limited to handeling those pax.

You can't cut a widebody in half the day there is no cargo or less pax than usual, but you can dispatch one less narrowbody. Sometimes, flexibility means much than the unsure opportunity of extra cargo. Extra cargo being just that, an extra.

So yes, on some route, UA will keep sending a widebody because the extra cargo is worth it. But it maybe on much less route than we would think at first glance.
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jayunited
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:45 pm

Stitch wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
On a common UA 767 transatlantic route, the 788 does not have the dramatic fuel savings one would expect. It's just too short to take advantage of the 787's design. The efficient engines and high weight cancel each other out on shorter segments.


UA's own data would dispute that claim:

Member HOWGOZIT provided flight plan data for UA947 AMS-IAD (767-300ER) and UA915 CDG-IAD (787-8) and the 767 burned 10,400kg more fuel (flight time was 23 minutes longer).

On the reverse (IAD to AMS/CDG), the 767 burned 6200kg more fuel (flight time was 13 minutes longer).



I don't know if it disputes the claim because UA is also on the record saying exactly what airplanedriver6 stated in fact just as recently as this spring UA stated while the 788 is a great aircraft it is not the most efficient aircraft to use on EWR/IAD - Europe flights (notice this applies to the 788 only). Also when UA opened up our IAD 787 base and move the 787s from IAH to IAD they stated the reason was because IAD is closer to Europe. According to UA by utilizing the aircraft from IAD it increased the aircraft's utilization rate which amounted to UA gaining an extra 788 verses IAH-Europe. With only 12 788s in the fleet the increased utilization rate was a main driver in UA's decision to open a 787 base at IAD. Also back then UA needed to move more 763s to EWR to replace 752s on many TATL routes.

Quick side note if we were to dive into the estimated fuel burn between a UA 788 and a standard UA 763 (not the high J's) with a similar number of passengers, bags, and cargo the fuel burn of a 788 on a IAD-Europe route is around 147 LBS per minute. Whereas a estimated fuel burn for a 763 on a IAD-Europe route is around 152 LBS per minute. While the 788 burns less fuel than the 763 because the flights between IAD and Europe are relatively short UA in the past has stated the 788 is not the most optimal aircraft on European routes between EWR/IAD and/or ORD.

And before people say the 787s are coming to ORD, UA has stated the 789s and 78X are coming to ORD no 788s are schedule for the opening of the base in 2020.
 
Coalways
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:17 pm

Nice fit for UA I’m sure this is just the beginning of the orders for United and the A321 model. They will have every type in the stretch version.

737-700->737-900
737max8->737Max10
319->321XLR
757-200->757-300
767-300->767-400
777-200->777-300
 
ikramerica
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
There really is nothing preventing them from having both 16J and 28J configured XLR. They just happen to run 28J 757s on transcon routes because those are very premium markets, more so than most TATL markets. I would imagine with Max 10, it'd hard to fit 28J in there. Maybe 20 to 24?

But for TATL, you can use 16J XLR for more leisure markets and 24 to 28J configuration for more business oriented market. There is no reason XLR cannot replace 767s.

While the -10 WAS a candidate to replace the ps 757, as you state the XLR looks like a better fit and the 50 count seems to match the 52 757s UA have left.

UA have over 130 739ER. The order for 132 -9/-10 replaces them almost 1:1.

What is left is 200 A319/320 and 200 737NG to replace.

And 75 MoM aircraft. And the 75 772s.
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hOMSaR
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:15 am

ikramerica wrote:
UA have over 130 739ER. The order for 132 -9/-10 replaces them almost 1:1.


There's basically zero chance UA replaces the 739ER within the delivery timeframe of the bulk of the current MAX 9/10 order.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:53 am

hOMSaR wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
UA have over 130 739ER. The order for 132 -9/-10 replaces them almost 1:1.


There's basically zero chance UA replaces the 739ER within the delivery timeframe of the bulk of the current MAX 9/10 order.


United's oldest 739ER is 12.0 years old, with the youngest 3 years old. There is no need to replace them. UA has a dozen 739 non-ERs 17-19 years old.
 
ikramerica
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:24 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
UA have over 130 739ER. The order for 132 -9/-10 replaces them almost 1:1.


There's basically zero chance UA replaces the 739ER within the delivery timeframe of the bulk of the current MAX 9/10 order.


United's oldest 739ER is 12.0 years old, with the youngest 3 years old. There is no need to replace them. UA has a dozen 739 non-ERs 17-19 years old.

A lot of people don’t seem to grasp how replacement happens at big carriers.

The number of MAX9/10 almost perfectly matches the number of 739ER but they do the job better (Using less fuel, taking no restrictions), especially on the fringes. That allows UA to cascade the 739ER down into the role of many 738s which are getting old, and retire the original 739s.

The ERs replace almost all 739/738.

The question becomes what replaces:

73G/A319 100+ —>> A220-500? Economical, NSA? Will itcome that small?

738 (30 frames)/A320 100+ —>> A320NEO? Safe bet, NSA? Longshot, MAX8? Don’t see it
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hOMSaR
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:40 am

ikramerica wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:

There's basically zero chance UA replaces the 739ER within the delivery timeframe of the bulk of the current MAX 9/10 order.


United's oldest 739ER is 12.0 years old, with the youngest 3 years old. There is no need to replace them. UA has a dozen 739 non-ERs 17-19 years old.

A lot of people don’t seem to grasp how replacement happens at big carriers.

The number of MAX9/10 almost perfectly matches the number of 739ER but they do the job better (Using less fuel, taking no restrictions), especially on the fringes. That allows UA to cascade the 739ER down into the role of many 738s which are getting old, and retire the original 739s.


Has UA given any indication that they will be retiring any 737s in the next few years?

The MAX 9s and 10s are mainly (or at least, were supposed to prior to the grounding) going toward upgauging the fleet to allow for eventual retirement of smaller RJs, retire some of the older A320s, and some of the MAX 10s are going to replace the PW-powered 757-200s.

That the number of MAXes on order matches the number of 739s in the fleet is more of a coincidence than anything.

As for retiring the original 739s...there are 12 of them. They’ll be retired when UA is ready to retire them, but I doubt there will be a specific replacement for them, per se. They’ll go when it’s time to go, and their replacement will be whatever narrowbody or collection of narrowbodies UA happens to be taking at the time, which very well could be MAX 8s, 9s, 10s, A321neos, or even newer second-hand planes they haven’t even identified yet.
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tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:11 am

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's why you have 2 flights instead of one. Having a lower seat count aircraft allows you to right size the market to demand a lot better and run better schedule. If UA runs high J strategy on those 767s, there is no reason they can't do the same with XLR. And besides, why would they want to have that many Y seats? If a market supports high ratio of J to Y, then there is less Y seat need to be filled with lower yielding connection and heavy discount pricing. That seems to be great for margins.


Throughout this thread you have consistently repeated the same point the A321XLR can replace the 763s . Most people would agree that on a limited number of routes the A321XLR could do that. However what you are not taking into account is the amount of cargo UA ships on our 763s, looking at just today's (December 10, 2019) schedule on our international 763 flights only UA is averaging around 16,000 pounds of cargo (not including any bags) on flight from the U.S.. On flights to the U.S. that operate on 763s UA is averaging around 21,000 pounds of cargo. Now there are international routes operating on 763s that are just passengers and bags only perhaps those routes are the routes you are referring to. But on our cargo heavy routes one or two A321XLRs can't replace a 763.


How important is that to United revenue wise? Conventional wisdom would say that is only equivalent to about 16-20 seats, the trip cost savings should be a good chunk above that, unless United gets above average $$ for flying that cargo around.

Best regards
Thomas
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77H
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:25 am

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's why you have 2 flights instead of one. Having a lower seat count aircraft allows you to right size the market to demand a lot better and run better schedule. If UA runs high J strategy on those 767s, there is no reason they can't do the same with XLR. And besides, why would they want to have that many Y seats? If a market supports high ratio of J to Y, then there is less Y seat need to be filled with lower yielding connection and heavy discount pricing. That seems to be great for margins.


Throughout this thread you have consistently repeated the same point the A321XLR can replace the 763s . Most people would agree that on a limited number of routes the A321XLR could do that. However what you are not taking into account is the amount of cargo UA ships on our 763s, looking at just today's (December 10, 2019) schedule on our international 763 flights only UA is averaging around 16,000 pounds of cargo (not including any bags) on flight from the U.S.. On flights to the U.S. that operate on 763s UA is averaging around 21,000 pounds of cargo. Now there are international routes operating on 763s that are just passengers and bags only perhaps those routes are the routes you are referring to. But on our cargo heavy routes one or two A321XLRs can't replace a 763.

On a lot of international routes the shipper builds their own PMC, or LD3. Airlines like UA will deliver an empty pallet or container and the shipper will build it and deliver it to our cargo facility. This type of cargo can not be broken down by UA and in most cases have tamper seals which if broken cost UA or any airline a lot of money. If UA were to follow your advise it would mean walking away from a large portion of our cargo business. Anyone who has spent any amount of time working for UA understands that although UA is a passenger airline, cargo is still makes up portion of our business. Our 77Ws UA treats below the wing as a de facto freighter, in many cases planning 10 or 11 pallets of cargo on those flights in addition to the bags.
I don't want to over play the importance of cargo to UA but at the same time we can't just discount it all together as you are doing by saying the XLR can replace the 763s.


On routes where a WB is downgauged to a XLR the UA Cargo Sales team will simply adapt and find alternate solutions to move cargo between those markets. UA shifts WB gauge and downgauges WB->NB throughout the system frequently in a given year. While change of gauge is frustrating and results in the loss of some business, no sales rep is just going to through up their hands.

UA, like most legacy belly freight airlines have RFS networks, JVs and make use of interline agreements.
Sales Reps responsible for generating business in markets that see downgauges will find a way to hold on to what business they can.

77H
 
77H
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:35 am

airplanedriver6 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii...

Well, at least DEN-HNL.

I doubt the runways in LIH or OGG are long enough for the A321XLR to make it back to DEN. For comparison, the last time I flew LIH-DEN in the 757-200(RR) we departed on runway 3 (6500'), the runway was wet, and every seat was filled. It was also a reduced power takeoff. ;)

calpsafltskeds wrote:
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.

Indeed.


Not sure why UA would downgauge DEN-HNL from a 364 seat 77A to a 170 seat XLR. Last year when UA announced service expansion to Hawaii they detailed how they were going to make DEN the primary gateway to Hawaii from markets East of the Rockies. In addition to DEN-HNL being operated by the HD 77A, UA made DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG daily year around with DEN-OGG upgauged to the HD 77A. I would expect the HD 77A’s will remain on at least DEN-HNL until they are retired.

77H
 
Sokes
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:08 am

Revelation wrote:
The optimists among us still think UA, DL and AA might still end up being NMA launch customers. As mentioned above, both 788 and A338 are not optimal for what these carriers want to do, not to mention QF and others.


And I wonder what Boeing is waiting for? It's said the A380 failed because of the tendency for hubs to connect to more and more hubs with smaller planes. So how bad could a B797 do?
What is Boeing going to do if Airbus puts a 45m wing on the A321 and a 52m wing on the A330?
In defense of Boeing one has to say that engine makers are busy to get the new generation engines working properly. Maybe they just don't have the capacity at the moment for a new model. Otherwise Airbus could do a MOM as well. How busy is Airbus at the moment?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Kikko19
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:22 am

yep, no engines no NMA from both sides
 
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scbriml
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:30 am

Kikko19 wrote:
yep, no engines no NMA from both sides


:checkmark:

The engine OEM needs to be able to close their business case as well. It isn’t all about Boeing.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
JonesNL
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:22 am

77H wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii...

Well, at least DEN-HNL.

I doubt the runways in LIH or OGG are long enough for the A321XLR to make it back to DEN. For comparison, the last time I flew LIH-DEN in the 757-200(RR) we departed on runway 3 (6500'), the runway was wet, and every seat was filled. It was also a reduced power takeoff. ;)

calpsafltskeds wrote:
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.

Indeed.


Not sure why UA would downgauge DEN-HNL from a 364 seat 77A to a 170 seat XLR. Last year when UA announced service expansion to Hawaii they detailed how they were going to make DEN the primary gateway to Hawaii from markets East of the Rockies. In addition to DEN-HNL being operated by the HD 77A, UA made DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG daily year around with DEN-OGG upgauged to the HD 77A. I would expect the HD 77A’s will remain on at least DEN-HNL until they are retired.

77H


Better connections by increased frequency. You can upgauge in smaller steps as well. 170 at a time instead of 364 at a time.
 
77H
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:34 am

JonesNL wrote:
77H wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
Well, at least DEN-HNL.

I doubt the runways in LIH or OGG are long enough for the A321XLR to make it back to DEN. For comparison, the last time I flew LIH-DEN in the 757-200(RR) we departed on runway 3 (6500'), the runway was wet, and every seat was filled. It was also a reduced power takeoff. ;)


Indeed.


Not sure why UA would downgauge DEN-HNL from a 364 seat 77A to a 170 seat XLR. Last year when UA announced service expansion to Hawaii they detailed how they were going to make DEN the primary gateway to Hawaii from markets East of the Rockies. In addition to DEN-HNL being operated by the HD 77A, UA made DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG daily year around with DEN-OGG upgauged to the HD 77A. I would expect the HD 77A’s will remain on at least DEN-HNL until they are retired.

77H


Better connections by increased frequency. You can upgauge in smaller steps as well. 170 at a time instead of 364 at a time.


Are you suggesting double daily DEN-HNL with the XLR? UA already uses the 364 seat 77A on DEN-HNL and has continuously for years. DEN-OGG was recently upgauged from the 752 to a 77A within the last year. Why would they need to upgauge in smaller steps if they are already operating with their highest seat count aircraft ? If UA wasn’t filling the 77As to HNL and OGG they would have been downgauged back to 752s.

77H
 
JonesNL
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:42 am

77H wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
77H wrote:

Not sure why UA would downgauge DEN-HNL from a 364 seat 77A to a 170 seat XLR. Last year when UA announced service expansion to Hawaii they detailed how they were going to make DEN the primary gateway to Hawaii from markets East of the Rockies. In addition to DEN-HNL being operated by the HD 77A, UA made DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG daily year around with DEN-OGG upgauged to the HD 77A. I would expect the HD 77A’s will remain on at least DEN-HNL until they are retired.

77H


Better connections by increased frequency. You can upgauge in smaller steps as well. 170 at a time instead of 364 at a time.


Are you suggesting double daily DEN-HNL with the XLR? UA already uses the 364 seat 77A on DEN-HNL and has continuously for years. DEN-OGG was recently upgauged from the 752 to a 77A within the last year. Why would they need to upgauge in smaller steps if they are already operating with their highest seat count aircraft ? If UA wasn’t filling the 77As to HNL and OGG they would have been downgauged back to 752s.

77H


Yes, double daily increases the probability of a connection that works from the passenger point of view. And you don't need to lose the 77A, you can just add the XLR to increase frequency with fairly limited risk. Al tough it is easier to fly one type on one route.
 
UA772IAD
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:07 pm

77H wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 321XLR would also be a nice aircraft for DEN-Hawaii...

Well, at least DEN-HNL.

I doubt the runways in LIH or OGG are long enough for the A321XLR to make it back to DEN. For comparison, the last time I flew LIH-DEN in the 757-200(RR) we departed on runway 3 (6500'), the runway was wet, and every seat was filled. It was also a reduced power takeoff. ;)

calpsafltskeds wrote:
50 units dedicated to Europe is a big opportunity for added routes from EWR/IAD and ORD.

Indeed.


Not sure why UA would downgauge DEN-HNL from a 364 seat 77A to a 170 seat XLR. Last year when UA announced service expansion to Hawaii they detailed how they were going to make DEN the primary gateway to Hawaii from markets East of the Rockies. In addition to DEN-HNL being operated by the HD 77A, UA made DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG daily year around with DEN-OGG upgauged to the HD 77A. I would expect the HD 77A’s will remain on at least DEN-HNL until they are retired.

77H

Agreed.
 
UA772IAD
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:12 pm

JonesNL wrote:

Yes, double daily increases the probability of a connection that works from the passenger point of view. And you don't need to lose the 77A, you can just add the XLR to increase frequency with fairly limited risk. Al tough it is easier to fly one type on one route.


There are currently aircraft in the fleet that can offer this- the 757 or 767... UA doesn't need the XLR to offer an off-peak DEN-HNL frequency that isn't a high density 777.

Not disputing the point above that UA intends to further utilize DEN for Eastern connections to Hawaii- but keep in mind they already operate:

ORD-HNL
EWR-HNL
IAD-HNL
IAH-HNL
 
JonesNL
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:43 pm

UA772IAD wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

Yes, double daily increases the probability of a connection that works from the passenger point of view. And you don't need to lose the 77A, you can just add the XLR to increase frequency with fairly limited risk. Al tough it is easier to fly one type on one route.


There are currently aircraft in the fleet that can offer this- the 757 or 767... UA doesn't need the XLR to offer an off-peak DEN-HNL frequency that isn't a high density 777.

Not disputing the point above that UA intends to further utilize DEN for Eastern connections to Hawaii- but keep in mind they already operate:

ORD-HNL
EWR-HNL
IAD-HNL
IAH-HNL


Yep, and they really love their 757 and 767. But the XLR offers better CASM/trip cost and as such, much lower risk to start using it for upgauging or changing frequencies. And don't forget by the time 50 XLR's have joined the fleet most 757 will be retired anyway.
 
estorilm
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:43 pm

UA772IAD wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

Yes, double daily increases the probability of a connection that works from the passenger point of view. And you don't need to lose the 77A, you can just add the XLR to increase frequency with fairly limited risk. Al tough it is easier to fly one type on one route.


There are currently aircraft in the fleet that can offer this- the 757 or 767... UA doesn't need the XLR to offer an off-peak DEN-HNL frequency that isn't a high density 777.

Not disputing the point above that UA intends to further utilize DEN for Eastern connections to Hawaii- but keep in mind they already operate:

ORD-HNL
EWR-HNL
IAD-HNL
IAH-HNL

I don't think they're talking about "currently" - as the XLR deliveries are 5 years or so into the future anyways.

By then the 757s and many of the 767s will be at or near retirement. I think that's the entire point of this purchase / thread as I understood it.
 
fun2fly
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:21 pm

UA772IAD wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

Yes, double daily increases the probability of a connection that works from the passenger point of view. And you don't need to lose the 77A, you can just add the XLR to increase frequency with fairly limited risk. Al tough it is easier to fly one type on one route.


There are currently aircraft in the fleet that can offer this- the 757 or 767... UA doesn't need the XLR to offer an off-peak DEN-HNL frequency that isn't a high density 777.

Not disputing the point above that UA intends to further utilize DEN for Eastern connections to Hawaii- but keep in mind they already operate:

ORD-HNL
EWR-HNL
IAD-HNL
IAH-HNL


and ORD>OGG.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14126
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:31 pm

50 A321XLR for UA represents a increase in the narrow body long haul fleet which currently consists of 40 752 (not including the Pratt powered 752s in Transcon service).

Some potential routings, * indicates current 752 route, ** indicates previous 752 route from CO and or post merger UA.

EWR-
Copenhagen**, Oslo**, Bristol**, Belfast**, Düsseldorf**, Cologne**, Hamburg**, Stuttgart**, Birmingham**, London Gatwick**, London Stansted**, Newcastle**

Stockholm*, Shannon*, Porto*, Glasgow*, Edinburgh*, Lima*, LAX*, SFO*, MCO* , Keflavík*

Basel, Cardiff, Gothenberg, Helsinki, Lyon, Malaga, Marseilles, Aberdeen, Budapest, Warsaw, Casablanca, Bergen, Rotterdam

IAD-
Barcelona*' London Heathrow*, Dublin*, Edinburgh* Lisbon*, Madrid*

Manchester, Glasgow

ORD-
Dublin*, Edinburg*

DEN-
KOA*, LIH*(runway?)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Last edited by STT757 on Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:42 pm

New Routers
IAD-MXP/ATH/ARN/TXL/VCE/GIG/LIM
EWR-BUD/WAW/OSL/CPH/DUS/HAM/AGP/PDL
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
Galwayman
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:44 pm

No point in adding Belfast , much more lucrative to add extra Dub rotations ,,, Belfast is a short trip up the road
 
DominoxX
Posts: 74
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:48 pm

Luxembourg ?
Thank u, next.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14126
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:49 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
New Routers
IAD-MXP/ATH/ARN/TXL/VCE/GIG/LIM
EWR-BUD/WAW/OSL/CPH/DUS/HAM/AGP/PDL


I like IAD-TXL and IAD-LIM.

And for a real wild card IAD-LPB-VVI, Northern Virginia has the largest Bolivian population is the US. The Politics also seem to be changing in Bolivia. Perhaps 3X’s weekly.
Last edited by STT757 on Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:55 pm

I’m curious if United would use the A321XLR to displace the 737s that they fly to Hawaii.
 
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STT757
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:03 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I’m curious if United would use the A321XLR to displace the 737s that they fly to Hawaii.


I think those were in the middle of transitioning to the 737Max when they were grounded. When the Max returns to service I expect that almost all of the 737s UA flies to Hawaii will be the Max (9, 10 and perhaps the Max 8 they’re rumored to have ordered).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
kiowa
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:09 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I’m curious if United would use the A321XLR to displace the 737s that they fly to Hawaii.


That would be a great move. I totally dislike anything over two hours in any version of the 737.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:16 pm

Thanks for putting this together! I think a lot of these routes are possible, but I am most interested in if UA will go head to head with some star partners from EWR. I’m not so sure the market is big enough for both LO and UA to WAW, or SK and UA to OSL, CPH. I hope I am wrong! On a side note, does anyone have the XLR delivery schedule?
 
jph7291
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:18 pm

Thoughts from IAH: adds in South America such as BSB, GYE, MVD. Those would be new destinations for UA, altogether. Maybe OGG, FAI? Maybe extra frequencies to HNL, GIG, GRU, EZE?
712, 732/5/G/8/9, 752, 763, 772/W, 319/20/21, M80/90, F100, CR2/7/9, E45/70/75, AT7, DH4/8
ACK,ATL,AUS,BOS,BWI,CDG,CLE,CVG,DAL,DAY,DEN,DTW,EWR,FLL,HOU,HSV,HNL,IAH,IND,MCO,MDW,MRS,NCE,OAK,ORD, ORY,PDX,PHL,RNS,SAN,SEA,SDF,SFO,SJC,YYZ
 
AAIL86
Posts: 463
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:23 pm

STT757 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
New Routers
IAD-MXP/ATH/ARN/TXL/VCE/GIG/LIM
EWR-BUD/WAW/OSL/CPH/DUS/HAM/AGP/PDL


I like IAD-TXL and IAD-LIM.

And for a real wild card IAD-LPB-VVI, Northern Virginia has the largest Bolivian population is the US. The Politics also seem to be changing in Bolivia. Perhaps 3X’s weekly.


IAD > LIM/BOG could be theoretically possible, although it seems UA are content to run everything to the deep south (except GRU of course) via IAH/PTY. Not to be a downer, but zero chance for IAD > LPB/VVI. Even AA can't make those work from Miami at present...
The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason - Benjamim Franklin
 
axiom
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:29 pm

You also find UA752s doing EWR-FLL/MCO turns daily - I would expect that to continue.
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 114
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:33 pm

axiom wrote:
You also find UA752s doing EWR-FLL/MCO turns daily - I would expect that to continue.

Utilization/availability will be a factor, but the MAX10 would seemingly be a better frame for that.
 
Kikko19
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Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:35 pm

kiowa wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I’m curious if United would use the A321XLR to displace the 737s that they fly to Hawaii.


That would be a great move. I totally dislike anything over two hours in any version of the 737.

flown 6 hrs on 737 on HEL > FUE survived... but shoulder to shoulder would be better any a32x plane. but for the buck it was ok. Since maybe (I*m not sure yet) 737 max will be back I'll select only airlines flying a32x or a220 or crj (SK, AY, BT, LH, AF, TP to move my family around Europe. Sorry FR and KL and anyone else. EZ will be also boycotted since they don't fly anymore where I need. I don't fly too much (6 /7 intra Europe and couple of intercont per year) but I'll try to influence the market with my spending power. If in 4/5 years no incidents on maxes I'll reassess my policy. xlr will be a great plane and will help the rest of the family with new technology.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: UA A321XLR routes

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:39 pm

STT757 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
New Routers
IAD-MXP/ATH/ARN/TXL/VCE/GIG/LIM
EWR-BUD/WAW/OSL/CPH/DUS/HAM/AGP/PDL


I like IAD-TXL and IAD-LIM.

And for a real wild card IAD-LPB-VVI, Northern Virginia has the largest Bolivian population is the US. The Politics also seem to be changing in Bolivia. Perhaps 3X’s weekly.


IAD-ARN seems particularly remote of a chance. I fly this route semi-regularly with SK (via CPH) and the fares are very cheap - often less than $500 in economy.

On the other side of the Nordic coin might be IAD-KEF. FI runs it double daily and the fares are often pretty high. I understand a lot of that has to do with FI's connecting hub and model, but UA's FF base at IAD could make a difference.
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