United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

STT757 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:40 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
axiom wrote:
You also find UA752s doing EWR-FLL/MCO turns daily - I would expect that to continue.

Utilization/availability will be a factor, but the MAX10 would seemingly be a better frame for that.

UA has 100 737Max 10 on order, I think those will be the Florida, Las Vegas, Caribbean go to aircraft with perhaps two dozen in a high premium configuration for EWR-SAN, EWR-SEA, BOS-LAX, etc..

I think the A321XLRs will primarily focus on long hauls and EWR-LAX/SFO.

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AAIL86 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:43 pm

jph7291 wrote:
Thoughts from IAH: adds in South America such as BSB, GYE, MVD. Those would be new destinations for UA, altogether. Maybe OGG, FAI? Maybe extra frequencies to HNL, GIG, GRU, EZE?

UA could run IAH> GYE today with the 73G or even 752, but clearly they don't think the yields justify it. Can you see them starting IAH>BSB or MVD? Personally love it as I'm IAH based, maybe something like this would be possible when they have 50 of this type in service....

PacoMartin · Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:45 pm

STT757 wrote:
50 A321XLR for UA represents a increase in the narrow body long haul fleet which currently consists of 40 752 (not including the Pratt powered 752s in Transcon service).

The transcon jets are older. Would these be replaced with MAX-9?

min - max median age
21.0 30.3 26.4 | 13 B752 Pratt powered (142 seats)
19.5 25.7 22.5 | 40 B752 (169-176 seats)

STT757 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:49 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
STT757 wrote:
50 A321XLR for UA represents a increase in the narrow body long haul fleet which currently consists of 40 752 (not including the Pratt powered 752s in Transcon service).

The transcon jets are older. Would these be replaced with MAX-9?

min - max median age
21.0 30.3 26.4 | 13 B752 Pratt powered (142 seats)
19.5 25.7 22.5 | 40 B752 (169-176 seats)

UA said Max 10 to replace the Pratt Powered 757s.

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A350belfast · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:10 pm

would there really be much point in relaunching Belfast? UA said the route was financially poor and that was even with a rescue deal for the route

BTC · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:15 pm

Galwayman wrote:
No point in adding Belfast , much more lucrative to add extra Dub rotations ,,, Belfast is a short trip up the road

Shannon is just a short trip away from Dublin, but they fly there too.

STT757 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:16 pm

jph7291 wrote:
Thoughts from IAH: adds in South America such as BSB, GYE, MVD. Those would be new destinations for UA, altogether. Maybe OGG, FAI? Maybe extra frequencies to HNL, GIG, GRU, EZE?

I like the idea of IAH-MVD, but at 5100 miles I think that's outside of the A321XLR's range. Guayaquil is not a high altitude airport, they could fly that route today from either IAH or EWR with a 738.

CO used to fly IAH-OGG nonstop with the 764, not sure the A321XLR has the performance to get to IAH from OGG's short runway. But if the 764 could do it perhaps the A321XLR could too.

SFO-BOG, especially if they get the JV with AV, and SFO-LIM are doable with the A321XLR.

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Rdh3e · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:20 pm

BTC wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
No point in adding Belfast , much more lucrative to add extra Dub rotations ,,, Belfast is a short trip up the road

Shannon is just a short trip away from Dublin, but they fly there too.

Shannon is about an hour further and has more tourism demand than Belfast as it's the gateway to the West Coast of Ireland.

Belfast is also beholden to the UK APD tax which historically has made it totally uncompetitive price wise for passengers, although this was made better in 2017.

BTC · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:24 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
BTC wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
No point in adding Belfast , much more lucrative to add extra Dub rotations ,,, Belfast is a short trip up the road

Shannon is just a short trip away from Dublin, but they fly there too.

Shannon is about an hour further and has more tourism demand than Belfast as it's the gateway to the West Coast of Ireland.

Belfast is also beholden to the UK APD tax which historically has made it totally uncompetitive price wise for passengers.

Exactly. The tax part is the important reason. The distance is irrelevant.

axiom · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:33 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
axiom wrote:
You also find UA752s doing EWR-FLL/MCO turns daily - I would expect that to continue.

Utilization/availability will be a factor, but the MAX10 would seemingly be a better frame for that.

It’s about utilization. CO/UA have done it for over a decade.

ual763 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:44 pm

Scott Kirby was on record in UA flight ops at SFO stating that they were looking at 11 new destinations in “Europe & Northern Africa” once the A321XLRs arrive. There is thread on airlinepilotforums that details that interaction.

Personally, I would like to see EWR to: KRK/BUD/OSL/BGO/PMI/HAM/CPH/STR/VIE/GDN/RAK/DUS

SASViking · Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:26 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Thanks for putting this together! I think a lot of these routes are possible, but I am most interested in if UA will go head to head with some star partners from EWR. I’m not so sure the market is big enough for both LO and UA to WAW, or SK and UA to OSL, CPH. I hope I am wrong! On a side note, does anyone have the XLR delivery schedule?

The market is there on EWR-CPH at least. The US-Denmark market is rising including NYC-CPH, with both SK and DL expanding next summer. Those expantions where announced before Norwegian announced the full closure of JFK-CPH.
SK will operate 2x daily (A330/A350) on EWR-CPH from March to late-October whilst DL will operate a daily 767 on JFK-CPH between May and late-October. On top of that there's many who fly via KEF on FI, AMS on KL/DL, FRA/MUC on LH and LHR on BA.
All UA need to do is to have a good schedule for onward connections

Cointrin330 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:47 pm

STT757 wrote:
50 A321XLR for UA represents a increase in the narrow body long haul fleet which currently consists of 40 752 (not including the Pratt powered 752s in Transcon service).

Some potential routings, * indicates current 752 route, ** indicates previous 752 route from CO and or post merger UA.

EWR-
Copenhagen**, Oslo**, Bristol**, Belfast**, Düsseldorf**, Cologne**, Hamburg**, Stuttgart**, Birmingham**, London Gatwick**, London Stansted**, Newcastle**

Stockholm*, Shannon*, Porto*, Glasgow*, Edinburgh*, Lima*, LAX*, SFO*, MCO* , Keflavík*

Basel, Cardiff, Gothenberg, Helsinki, Lyon, Malaga, Marseilles, Aberdeen, Budapest, Warsaw, Casablanca, Bergen, Rotterdam

IAD-
Barcelona*' London Heathrow*, Dublin*, Edinburgh* Lisbon*, Madrid*

Manchester, Glasgow

ORD-
Dublin*, Edinburg*

DEN-
KOA*, LIH*(runway?)

From EWR, LIM which is a 757-200ER route today, will likely be an A321XLR route in the future. I don't see UA re-entering Scandinavia even with the A321 (OSL, ARN year round). The market is small and served sufficiently by SAS. No real need for additional lift in these markets. SK flies them all with A330/A340s. Also unlikely UA will relaunch BRS, CGN, BFS, or Newcastle. These routes were all cut because they weren't profitable and the A321 isn't likely to make them economically that much more viable.

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Rossiya747 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:17 pm

Here are a bunch I want but I know it is very unlikely to happen.

EWR-
LED HEL RIX CPH OSL BGO KBP WAW VIE IST DBV OTP BHX SOF KRK VNO JMK GIG SVO/DME/VKO OPO SVQ AGP PKC (yes it is within 4700 nmi of EWR) AYT CMN AER SVX PMI IBZ NCE

STT757 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:35 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
Here are a bunch I want but I know it is very unlikely to happen.

EWR-
LED HEL RIX CPH OSL BGO KBP WAW VIE IST DBV OTP BHX SOF KRK VNO JMK GIG SVO/DME/VKO OPO SVQ AGP PKC (yes it is within 4700 nmi of EWR) AYT CMN AER SVX PMI IBZ NCE

UA announced Nice with a 763, peak season.

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MIflyer12 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:37 pm

ual763 wrote:
Scott Kirby was on record in UA flight ops at SFO stating that they were looking at 11 new destinations in “Europe & Northern Africa” once the A321XLRs arrive. There is thread on airlinepilotforums that details that interaction.

Personally, I would like to see EWR to: KRK/BUD/OSL/BGO/PMI/HAM/CPH/STR/VIE/GDN/RAK/DUS

You'll see a few of those. GDN, huh? I want some of what you're smoking.

FlyHossD · Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:01 pm

twicearound wrote:
The A320 has always had the proven range for any of the routes you've mentioned. Think JetBlue, or Virgin America. Transcon airlines, with a fleet of Airbus.

My recollection and experiences are somewhat different. That is, in the stronger winter winds (westerly), the A320CEOs are more likely to make fuel stops on westbound transcon flights. I have yet to ride on a A320NEO yet.

Aptivaboy · Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:11 pm

I'm curious if United will experiment with these planes out of medium sized markets to places like Western Europe, the way Continental did using 757's to Gatwick, way back in the day. Perhaps Cleveland, Pittsburgh, cities like these to the United Kingdom and France. Just a thought. The CLE-LGW route was very popular for awhile, and I think UA retained it for a time, didn't they? These 321s might be very well suited for some newish city pairs.

Nicknuzzii · Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:13 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
I'm curious if United will experiment with these planes out of medium sized markets to places like Western Europe, the way Continental did using 757's to Gatwick, way back in the day. Perhaps Cleveland, Pittsburgh, cities like these to the United Kingdom and France. Just a thought. The CLE-LGW route was very popular for awhile, and I think UA retained it for a time, didn't they? These 321s might be very well suited for some newish city pairs.

I’m pretty sure CO cut it way before the merger.

ual763 · Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:35 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ual763 wrote:
Scott Kirby was on record in UA flight ops at SFO stating that they were looking at 11 new destinations in “Europe & Northern Africa” once the A321XLRs arrive. There is thread on airlinepilotforums that details that interaction.

Personally, I would like to see EWR to: KRK/BUD/OSL/BGO/PMI/HAM/CPH/STR/VIE/GDN/RAK/DUS

You'll see a few of those. GDN, huh? I want some of what you're smoking.

While it is an up and coming city, GDN is sort of a pipe dream. Replace that with DBV, to be more realistic.

However, tbh, I definitely see PMI being added eventually. Kind of surprised there’s no seasonal direct flights to the US from there now.

AaronPGH · Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:54 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
I'm curious if United will experiment with these planes out of medium sized markets to places like Western Europe, the way Continental did using 757's to Gatwick, way back in the day. Perhaps Cleveland, Pittsburgh, cities like these to the United Kingdom and France. Just a thought. The CLE-LGW route was very popular for awhile, and I think UA retained it for a time, didn't they? These 321s might be very well suited for some newish city pairs.

I don't think these would have a shot in hell. Neither end would be a Star Alliance hub. United doesn't even fly second tier markets to FRA. I'd like to see a bit of that from UA but they are focused on pushing traffic through hubs only.

Now Lufthansa, still a long shot but if they ever got a smaller aircraft maybe they would take a crack at these US markets.

LAX772LR · Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:05 pm

yoyo777 wrote:
CONTACREW wrote:
321XLR will operate from EWR/IAD no ORD.

That is probably the case. 321 doesn't seem to be able to reach much of the Europe from ORD.

Huh?

Even knocking 15% off the advertised range for considerations: it'd still be able to hit all of western Europe except the very southern tip of Italy, all of northern Europe, and the overwhelming majority of central Europe, from ORD.

DLHAM · Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:37 am

ual763 wrote:
Scott Kirby was on record in UA flight ops at SFO stating that they were looking at 11 new destinations in “Europe & Northern Africa” once the A321XLRs arrive. There is thread on airlinepilotforums that details that interaction.

Personally, I would like to see EWR to: KRK/BUD/OSL/BGO/PMI/HAM/CPH/STR/VIE/GDN/RAK/DUS

HAM would be pretty cool. But chances are not too low that they will have to face competition on the NYC-HAM market once the XLR arrives (not before 2024, which is 4-5 years from now).
Establishing a second flight on that route against another already operating Airline could be challenging, but its not hopeless at all.

Another city I could Imagine is LYS. Pretty close to GVA but may be worth a try with the XLR.

STT757 · Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:49 am

SFO-Bogota, SFO-Lima

airzona11 · Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:20 am

STT757 wrote:
SFO-Bogota, SFO-Lima

Is there enough demand, let alone premium demand for such a long flight? It would have to be O/D based on cities involved? I get the A321 can connect those cities, but UA is not chasing connecting fares, they have IAH for that to South America.

keesje · Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:34 am

IAH-RTM used to be a high yield business class market. Via close by AMS. Many oil related companies haved offices in both areas and tons of relations. And many passengers used to transfers to the middle east. KLM even hired Privat Air BBJ in the past to increase Business Class seats / frequency on top of the daily 747 Combi from AMS.

DominoxX · Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:08 pm

Can the LR/XLR make flights like EWR/JFK/PHL-LUXEMBOURG commercially feasible ?

twicearound · Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:53 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
twicearound wrote:
The A320 has always had the proven range for any of the routes you've mentioned. Think JetBlue, or Virgin America. Transcon airlines, with a fleet of Airbus.

My recollection and experiences are somewhat different. That is, in the stronger winter winds (westerly), the A320CEOs are more likely to make fuel stops on westbound transcon flights. I have yet to ride on a A320NEO yet.

Only in extreme situations and from the farthest city pairs did that happen, and that was before the sharklet mod for the 320ceo. Since the mod, no issues at all. And we are still talking about carriers whose main existence centered on flying A320's across the country.Obviously a proven aircraft.

VC10er · Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:02 am

How far South from EWR/IAD can the A321XLR go?

Is it range limited to the North Most South American destinations? Manaus, Brasilia, Colombia, Quito?
(Did DL try Manaus?)

Or would they make EZE/GIG, MVD? (I only did the JFK>EZE>MVD tag twice 25+ years ago. It was difficult to tell but there seemed like a decent amount of pax on the EZE to MVD tag. Business and First on a 763 was had at least a dozen or more pax between them. I would assume small but premium pax for MVD?

Okcflyer · Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:55 am

STT757 wrote:
SFO-Bogota, SFO-Lima

Maybe SFO-LIM but doubtful.

BOG-SFO isn’t doable with an A321. Dont think the XLR (or any A321 model for that matter) can get out of BOG greater than 85T, almost 20T short of fuel. BOG and MEX are two of the most difficult airports in the world.

Okcflyer · Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:01 am

AAIL86 wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
Thoughts from IAH: adds in South America such as BSB, GYE, MVD. Those would be new destinations for UA, altogether. Maybe OGG, FAI? Maybe extra frequencies to HNL, GIG, GRU, EZE?

UA could run IAH> GYE today with the 73G or even 752, but clearly they don't think the yields justify it. Can you see them starting IAH>BSB or MVD? Personally love it as I'm IAH based, maybe something like this would be possible when they have 50 of this type in service....

IAH-GYE (or EWR-GYE ... may be more likely) is doable today with 737-700, 737-800, or MAX9.

While this route would be a dream for me, I don’t think the XLR will have any bearing on its return. It’s not a range stretch for existing aircraft.

If “next gen” aircraft economics are needed, it would likely start on a MAX 8 first anyway.

Edit: EWR-GYE is a pretty long stretch for 737/738. Needs MAX for reliability

STT757 · Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:44 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
AAIL86 wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
Thoughts from IAH: adds in South America such as BSB, GYE, MVD. Those would be new destinations for UA, altogether. Maybe OGG, FAI? Maybe extra frequencies to HNL, GIG, GRU, EZE?

UA could run IAH> GYE today with the 73G or even 752, but clearly they don't think the yields justify it. Can you see them starting IAH>BSB or MVD? Personally love it as I'm IAH based, maybe something like this would be possible when they have 50 of this type in service....

IAH-GYE (or EWR-GYE ... may be more likely) is doable today with 737-700, 737-800, or MAX9.

While this route would be a dream for me, I don’t think the XLR will have any bearing on its return. It’s not a range stretch for existing aircraft.

If “next gen” aircraft economics are needed, it would likely start on a MAX 8 first anyway.

Edit: EWR-GYE is a pretty long stretch for 737/738. Needs MAX for reliability

CO was flying EWR-GYE with a 738 nonstop, not sure if it had issues. It would definitely be better suited for the 737-8 Max which UA has some undisclosed commitments.

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United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

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