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TWA772LR
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A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:51 pm

I know the A322 has been brought up ad nauseam, but with UA making a big splash in the commercial aviation market with the 50 A321XLR order, they still have some 753s in the fleet, as does DL and a handful of others.

My question is, what would be the possible cost to Airbus to develop a simple stretch (and possible thrust bump) to make an A321LR (not XLR) ranged A322? Im talking a possible 753 replacement with not quite XLR range but good enough to hop across the Atlantic.
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asr0dzjq
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:57 pm

Because the 788 and A338 are too big?
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steman
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:05 pm

It would probably need a new wing and a 4 wheel bogie, forcing a rather deep redesign and therefore very high development costs, for what is probably a limited market or at least a not very clear cut one. Maybe the next single aisle Airbus design will have a version bigger than the current A321.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:07 pm

Have you looked at how few carriers operated 753s, and how few Boeing built? A little more range vs. a 753 won't make much difference. Some niches just aren't worth filling.
 
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seahawk
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:09 pm

steman wrote:
It would probably need a new wing and a 4 wheel bogie, forcing a rather deep redesign and therefore very high development costs, for what is probably a limited market or at least a not very clear cut one. Maybe the next single aisle Airbus design will have a version bigger than the current A321.


With hte MTOW bump of the XLR, it should be possible to do a A322 with about the same range as an A321CEO without winglets.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:37 pm

seahawk wrote:
steman wrote:
It would probably need a new wing and a 4 wheel bogie, forcing a rather deep redesign and therefore very high development costs, for what is probably a limited market or at least a not very clear cut one. Maybe the next single aisle Airbus design will have a version bigger than the current A321.


With hte MTOW bump of the XLR, it should be possible to do a A322 with about the same range as an A321CEO without winglets.


The range of the 757-300WL is only about 3,600 nm still air. So a stretched A321XLR would have no problem to hit that range.
So a A322 minimum change for a 200 frame run would be feasible.
 
checklist350
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:57 pm

An A322 would need a significant investment into a ground-up design CFRP wing. When you develop an entirely new wing you don't design that just for one version of the family but for the entire family, and usually optimised for the middle member. So without at least a rewinged A321 it doesn't make any sense to launch the A322 into the current generation.

You'd also want to combine wing and type development cost with a new engine, which won't be around for another 10 years.

Furthermore there is a quite large gap between the 320 and the 321 currently (37.5m vs 44.5m) which leaves not much space above the 321 with current capabilities.

For all these reasons I only see a new 322 on the horizon with the next gen 320 series, which would launch in the 2030-2035 timeframe to make use of the next gen engines. Because of the A220 replacing the A319, I can see the 321 move down a bit in size and become the main design benchmark for the 320 series desired performance.

I'm expecting the next gen 320 series to consist of the A320 at the current size (~37.5m), the A321 shrinked slightly (~42.5m) to open op a significant enough market for the A322 which I'm expecting to come in at about ~47.5m. The CFRP wings will be optimised mainly for the A321 as the new flagship of the series.

These three launch around the same time as the NSA but no sooner than 2030.
 
LH707330
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Have you looked at how few carriers operated 753s, and how few Boeing built? A little more range vs. a 753 won't make much difference. Some niches just aren't worth filling.

I think a large part of the 753 not selling was the market when it launched. Back in 1999/2000 there was already overcapacity in the US and a recession coming, then 9/11 happened. Had Boeing launched the -300 in 1990ish, I'm sure they'd have upsold several -200 customers and made more money and units.

I have no doubt that Airbus could build a straight-stretch A322 with transcon and Hawaii range, the question is whether they can upsell them for enough money over a normal 321 to make it worth developing them. Figure something like $500M in R&D and maybe a market for 200-500 units, that comes out to a couple mil a frame, which could be recouped with a $5M price premium. Ceteris paribus it makes sense, but they're probably asking themselves opportunity cost questions like:

1. Could we instead increase our rate and sell more units overall to make even more money?
2. What other projects could we invest in that will have higher returns?

My guess is those last two are the sticking points.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:06 pm

If it can technically be done, I think there is quite a market for it. Specially among the LCCs who are growing to ever bigger aircraft but wide bodies are still too big.

I've seen several reactions about needing to redesign the wing. However as luck would have it, the wing is being redesigned for the A321XLR anyway. As they're working on it anyway, why not prepare it for a stretch as well? Would that be so hard? No doubt with the current A320-series wings an A322 wouldn't be possible, but with the A321XLR-wings it just could be.
 
9252fly
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:24 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
However as luck would have it, the wing is being redesigned for the A321XLR anyway. As they're working on it anyway, why not prepare it for a stretch as well? Would that be so hard? No doubt with the current A320-series wings an A322 wouldn't be possible, but with the A321XLR-wings it just could be.


It would seem they will not have to design a double-bogey setup for a hypothetical A322.

 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:50 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Have you looked at how few carriers operated 753s, and how few Boeing built? A little more range vs. a 753 won't make much difference. Some niches just aren't worth filling.


That also came at a bad time, right around 9/11. But a lighter plane carrying 250 passengers on missions around 4-6 hours has a market. It could also operate longer with more international J seats. The main question would be at what cost to wide-body sales.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:55 pm

Why would they? If that is the plane you need, you are probably already buying an A321neo (of some version).
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
estorilm
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:58 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Why would they? If that is the plane you need, you are probably already buying an A321neo (of some version).

Exactly - they're absolutely printing cash since anyone who needs the plane mentioned above will be FORCED to buy the XLR anyways.

They can afford to wait for quite a while.
 
T4thH
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:59 pm

A322 will be a really big re-design, which is now not any more worth to be done.
The wing will have to be re-designed. With the A321Xlr the engines are now at the maximum; a new engine/engine upgrade will be needed. But this is not the worst thing, with the A321, the maximum length has been reached. Longer fuselage and the rotation will not any more work, so the landing gear has to be redesigned and prolonged , redesign of the wingbody and and and.....
If they will start now (and they have not started and the A320 family construction teams are now busy with the A321Xlr till 2024....)
It is too late, if they will start now, we will see the A322 earliest in 2027. And as said, the A320 family construction teams are now busy.

The best time to start with a clean sheet design is, when some breakthroughs have been developed or when it is clear, that these breakthroughs will be available soon during the development process, before the design cut has to be done.
These will be the new Aluminium Scandium and Al Mg Scandium alloys (but first the Scandium mining will have to be increased e.g.), the full laminar flow wing (and we are not talking about laminar foils so (I am a bad guy) to avoid, that dead flies stick to the surface of the jet) and a new/next generation of jet engines, like open fan e.g. I say, these developments will be available in the middle of the next decade, so around 2025, when the A321 Xlr is on the market.
So in 2025 all construction teams for narrowbodies at Airbus will be needed for the A320 family replacement and not any more available for a product (so A322) which will be super-seeded after around 5 years.

It is now too late for a A322 development. And I expect, the need for a B757-300 replacement is now limited.In perhaps 15 years it will be different, but this will be the time of a A320 replacement, which will be in a A320 to A322 range in size (in my expectations).
 
RJMAZ
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:25 pm

The biggest issue would be the significantly higher landing weight of the A322. 10% higher empty weight and 10% more passengers will mean the landing weight will need to increase by 10t. All of the headroom would have been used up with the multiple smaller MTOW bumps. A 10t bump would require huge work.

The second issue would be higher thrust engines are needed due to extra fuselage surface area. The 35,000lb thrust engines are on their limit already.

The third issue would be the tail hitting the ground. A tail skid will need to be installed.

The A321 could never be stretched to 757-300 length but a 3-4m stretch would definitely work well.

People would be shocked to see how much of a range hit the A322 would get. When an aircraft gets a stretch it usually has a small MTOW increase. The A322 would get no increase. The 787-10 for instance keeps the same MTOW and loses 15% range for a 10% fuselage stretch. The A321 would take a bigger range hit than the 787-10 due payload being a higher percentage of fuel loaded.

A 4metre stretch to 48.5m would see the A322 range drop from 4700nm to below 4000nm. A 7 metre stretch to 51.5m would see range drop to near 3000nm.

There is a 7m length difference between the A320 and A321.

My solution would be for a moderate stretch 3-4m but no increase in payload weight. This will then allow a very minimal increase in the landing weight to save on engineering. This would rule out a low cost carrier fitting 270 seats onto the thing. But would allow 240seats with 32inch pitch. Or 220 seats at 28inch pitch and four rows of business class seats.
 
strfyr51
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:44 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
I know the A322 has been brought up ad nauseam, but with UA making a big splash in the commercial aviation market with the 50 A321XLR order, they still have some 753s in the fleet, as does DL and a handful of others.

My question is, what would be the possible cost to Airbus to develop a simple stretch (and possible thrust bump) to make an A321LR (not XLR) ranged A322? Im talking a possible 753 replacement with not quite XLR range but good enough to hop across the Atlantic.

IF they proposed and built an A322? It would have to Start with 757 range on Wing fuel alone, have the power of the RR 535 or the PW 2040 scalable up to 50K Thrust with range built in to de-rate and up-rate as necessary. I'd bet sure that GE won't sit this one out again, as they didn't field an engine for the 757. They will NOT again make that mistake even if it's an uprated CFM derived engine. and Pratt will get their program together with that lousy GTF.
 
Peterwk146
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Re: A322?

Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:02 pm

It all comes down to the business case.
 
TC957
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Re: A322?

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:23 pm

With the 320 series production line sold out for the next few years Airbus don't need too spend money on R & D costs developing any more new versions.
Sure, when sales slow down as they will in years ahead then technology especially engines will have moved on again enough for an A322 to be maybe considered in the line-up.
Chinese and Indian airlines I'm sure will buy hundreds.
 
Noshow
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Re: A322?

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:27 pm

Some new A321 wing is likely to happen (speculating).
I mean this is the new "middle of the market": Above the A321 and below the widebodies. It will be the big future business case especially within Asia.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A322?

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:15 pm

The same as Boeing did the 757-300 with a reduced range, Airbus could follow on the A321XLR with a reduced range A322 stretch only. Same MTOW, no need for new wing engines and so on. some work on the MLG for a higher landing weight.
The 757-300WL has only about 3,600 nm range. The 757-200WL about 4,100.
The A321XLR will have 4,700 nm, a reduction to about 4,000 nm for a bulk people carrier should do. The size difference to the A321 would be less than the difference between the 757-200 and 757-300.
The current engines would be enough as we talk about the same MTOW as the A321XLR.

Airbus could also do a A322 with a new wing, new MLG and a stretch to 757-300 comparable length.
As a A322 would have a lower MTOW than a 757-300, it would hardly need bigger engines than that bird and that would mean MAX 43,500 lbf and that brings an MTOW of nearly 124 t into the air.
The lowest thrust engines on the 757 are 36,600 lbf, so I have no idea where the 50,000 lbf needed size comes from some posters here talk about.
An 115 t MTOW A322 with new wings should get by with 35,000 lbf, that would be well possible in the current GTF

Airbus does not need the A322 as it is to sell more frames, as the backlog is big enough. But a A322 could preempt a possible NMA/MoM from Boeing and kill that idea off.
 
ewt340
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Re: A322?

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:15 pm

The problem with B757-300 is the fact that it's stretched by 7.1m. Which resulted in significant loss in range and capability that the -200 have. It's also really long, hence the boarding problem.

In my opinion, they should just do a simple short stretch like what Boeing did with MAX10. A simple 3 frames stretch which would add 2 extra rows of seating (12 extra seats), which would match the seating capacity of B757-200.

4 Wheel boogie with the same wing might work just fine. With XLR range, it would probably ended up with 4000nmi. Which is still a decent range.

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