Good evening,

It is being reported that Ryanair will be shutting down two bases: NUE and NYO.

Destinations that will be terminated from Nuremberg: Athens, Bergamo, Budapest, Copenhagen, Kiev, Stansted, Malta, Rome, Tel Aviv, Marrakesch and Naples.

Following destinations will remain: Thessaloniki, Palermo, Palma de Mallorca, Porto, Alicante, Krakow and Zadar.

Destinations to be cut from Skavsta: Banja Luka, Barcelona, Beauvais, Charleroi, Gran Canaria, Kiev, Malta, Nis, Weeze.

Routes that will be kept: Alicante, Bergamo, Gdansk, Krakow, Stansted, Malaga, Podgorica, Poznan, Thessaloniki, Modlin, Edinburgh, Zadar, Naples and Pisa

Quite a few cuts by Ryanair. In another forum someone wrote that NYO is being closed because of a dispute with unions. Could the same be true of NUE or was it generally a rather unprofitable base for them?

Source:
https://www.dw.com/en/ryanair-will-clos ... a-51532836

can someone remind me how many bases they've now closed in the past two years? I've actually lost count.

In Germany, there are rumors that FR will close all bases. Some completely like NUE, while at others shifting to a different AOC (Malta, Lauda).

DUSZRH wrote:

In Germany, there are rumors that FR will close all bases. Some completely like NUE, while at others shifting to a different AOC (Malta, Lauda).

How many planes do they have stationed in Germany? Do they still operate a base in FRA or do they use planes from elsewhere?

He also accepted that he had stopped Bellew from dealing directly with unions following a meeting with a german union because he had ” basically given them everything that they wanted.”

https://www.thejournal.ie/michael-olear ... 3-Dec2019/

Blerg wrote:

DUSZRH wrote:

In Germany, there are rumors that FR will close all bases. Some completely like NUE, while at others shifting to a different AOC (Malta, Lauda).

How many planes do they have stationed in Germany? Do they still operate a base in FRA or do they use planes from elsewhere?

If I´m not wrong they have quite some operations at both SXF and TXL. In TXL they started off with 4 machines (737) that were being flown "on behalf" of Lauda. But I think now they have more and operated for themselves.

Skavsta in Sweden was their third international base out of the UK, only after Charleroi and Hahn. It’s got quite a few years of history, opened back in 2003.

I wonder what’s the logic behind Ryanair bases closed. Are those the ones for which Ryanair had more 737MAXs plans? Are they just underperforming compared to others? Hard to believe a place like NYO, NUE or LPA isn’t as profitable as single-aircraft-bases such as PDL OR SCQ? What are your thoughts?

The days of the secondary airports hours away from the cities Ryanair claims to serve are over. The gap between legacies and LCCs is simply not what is used to be in 2003 and a higher yield from the main airports outweighs the benefits of the lower operating costs in provincial airfields.

FR should have been operating a few dozen MAXs by now.
I am surprised they haven't made more cuts to their schedule.

Blerg wrote:

Good evening,

It is being reported that Ryanair will be shutting down two bases: NUE and NYO.

Destinations that will be terminated from Nuremberg: Athens, Bergamo, Budapest, Copenhagen, Kiev, Stansted, Malta, Rome, Tel Aviv, Marrakesch and Naples.

Following destinations will remain: Thessaloniki, Palermo, Palma de Mallorca, Porto, Alicante, Krakow and Zadar.

Destinations to be cut from Skavsta: Banja Luka, Barcelona, Beauvais, Charleroi, Gran Canaria, Kiev, Malta, Nis, Weeze.

Routes that will be kept: Alicante, Bergamo, Gdansk, Krakow, Stansted, Malaga, Podgorica, Poznan, Thessaloniki, Modlin, Edinburgh, Zadar, Naples and Pisa

Quite a few cuts by Ryanair. In another forum someone wrote that NYO is being closed because of a dispute with unions. Could the same be true of NUE or was it generally a rather unprofitable base for them?

Source:
https://www.dw.com/en/ryanair-will-clos ... a-51532836

Well quite a big blow to NUE airport...But why cut the routes instead of keeping them with flights TO Nue from other bases? ATH,BGY,BUD,KBP,MLA,CIA,STN, NAP are all bases...

a350lover wrote:

Skavsta in Sweden was their third international base out of the UK, only after Charleroi and Hahn. It’s got quite a few years of history, opened back in 2003.

Surely the foreign performance of Ryanair, or indeed any airline, should only be assessed on that outside of their home country - just like nobody gauges Eurowings on the number of their bases "out of Croatia" or of Norwegian's bases "out of Estonia".

marcogr12 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Good evening,

It is being reported that Ryanair will be shutting down two bases: NUE and NYO.

Destinations that will be terminated from Nuremberg: Athens, Bergamo, Budapest, Copenhagen, Kiev, Stansted, Malta, Rome, Tel Aviv, Marrakesch and Naples.

Following destinations will remain: Thessaloniki, Palermo, Palma de Mallorca, Porto, Alicante, Krakow and Zadar.

Destinations to be cut from Skavsta: Banja Luka, Barcelona, Beauvais, Charleroi, Gran Canaria, Kiev, Malta, Nis, Weeze.

Routes that will be kept: Alicante, Bergamo, Gdansk, Krakow, Stansted, Malaga, Podgorica, Poznan, Thessaloniki, Modlin, Edinburgh, Zadar, Naples and Pisa

Quite a few cuts by Ryanair. In another forum someone wrote that NYO is being closed because of a dispute with unions. Could the same be true of NUE or was it generally a rather unprofitable base for them?

Source:
https://www.dw.com/en/ryanair-will-clos ... a-51532836

Well quite a big blow to NUE airport...But why cut the routes instead of keeping them with flights TO Nue from other bases? ATH,BGY,BUD,KBP,MLA,CIA,STN, NAP are all bases...

My guess is that those routes could have been kept but they are not because of weaker performance. I mean, NUE-ATH is right between MUC and FRA and both airports have train stations so they are easily accessible and have multiple daily flights on both Aegean and Lufthansa.

Thessaloniki is probably kept because of a much larger tourist market but also because there is less competition.

Will be interesting to see if Wizz Air actually considers NUE as their next base. Now that would be interesting to follow.

Could be.. I think NUE-SKG is also serving a large ex-pat commmunity from N.Greece because A3 flies in summer too, although at horrible hours...Wizzair expanding would be great but their focus is more Central and Eastern Europe

I wonder why MOL doesn't just close UK bases and move the planes to the NYO, NUE and any other base that he may he forced to close? He did say Ryanair would 'pivot away' from the UK because of Brexit so surely this would be the perfect time to so pivot?

He needs to base planes in labour markets with looser regulation/laws such as Ireland, UK, Poland and Malta.
His staff may or may not still earn a market competitive wage but his planes are like ships flying under flags of convenience within the markets he operates on irrespective of whether those flags of convenience are E.U. or not E.U.
The company has already cut quite a number of routes in Britain but the main bases in the UK appear to be safe so long as the regulatory environment in which they operate remains favourable.

marcogr12 wrote:

Could be.. I think NUE-SKG is also serving a large ex-pat commmunity from N.Greece because A3 flies in summer too, although at horrible hours...Wizzair expanding would be great but their focus is more Central and Eastern Europe

You mean that Aegean flies SKG-NUE? Do they operate night flights? Probably has to do with fleet utilization.

leghorn wrote:

He needs to base planes in labour markets with looser regulation/laws such as Ireland, UK, Poland and Malta.
His staff may or may not still earn a market competitive wage but his planes are like ships flying under flags of convenience within the markets he operates on irrespective of whether those flags of convenience are E.U. or not E.U.
The company has already cut quite a number of routes in Britain but the main bases in the UK appear to be safe so long as the regulatory environment in which they operate remains favourable.

Could it not be air passenger duty that's the killer? I assume you're talking about UK domestics as as a whole FR have increased their routes, particularly to UK regions and have opened a new base in SEN.

Belfast - Alicante is the last one I heard of being gone. They'll chop and change routes but hubs are strategic investments for them.

Ryanair, Europe’s No.1 airline, today (1 Oct) launched its UK Summer 2020 schedule with 14 new routes including exciting destinations for Summer such as Cluj (Romania), Pisa and Terceira (Portugal), and more than 500 routes in total which will deliver 46.3m customers p.a. and support 35,000 jobs at its 21 UK Airports.

Ryanair’s UK Summer 2020 schedule will deliver:

5 brand new routes – Edinburgh to Bydgoszcz (2 pw); Manchester to Pisa (2 pw); Stansted to Cluj (3 pw), Kosice (3 pw) & Terceira (1 pw);
9 new summer services – Exeter to Alicante (2 pw); Edinburgh to Bucharest (3 pw); London Stansted to Dresden (3 pw) & Essaouira (2 pw); London Luton to Krakow (4 pw) & Seville (3 pw); Manchester to Katowice (3 pw), Milan Malpensa (5 pw) & Prague (9 pw)
More flights on 46 other routes including destinations like Budapest, Milan Bergamo & Krakow
Over 500 routes in total
46.3m customers p.a.
35,000* on-site jobs

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryan ... -sale-now/

They also announced six new Southend routes just weeks ago, in addition to two new routes announced in August and Stansted to Lajes.

There definitely seems to be more grown than shrinkage.

I think Ryanair is struggling a bit with the MAX delays. Unfortunately, they cannot keep all routes that were operated in the past or expected to operate in the future.

My best guess is that they are just cutting weaker performance bases, even if they turn a profit, to benefit better performing ones.

The best of luck to NYO and NUE colleagues, hopefully you will find either new jobs or relocate somewhere not too far.

as long as they can jumpseat back to their former bases regularly it isn't the end of the world for them on an individual basis but the airports and future jobs are endangered in the locality.
Southend may be a Ryanair base but the airport itself is losing money hand over fist and may have an impact on Ryanair when/if creditors pull the plug

I'd imagine the planes would shift a few miles round the M25 if that were to happen.

I was really surprised to hear them closing the Canaries bases. GRO sadly on the chopping block too, unless crew sign a contract by next week accepting a seasonal base.

Blerg wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Good evening,

It is being reported that Ryanair will be shutting down two bases: NUE and NYO.

Destinations that will be terminated from Nuremberg: Athens, Bergamo, Budapest, Copenhagen, Kiev, Stansted, Malta, Rome, Tel Aviv, Marrakesch and Naples.

Following destinations will remain: Thessaloniki, Palermo, Palma de Mallorca, Porto, Alicante, Krakow and Zadar.

Destinations to be cut from Skavsta: Banja Luka, Barcelona, Beauvais, Charleroi, Gran Canaria, Kiev, Malta, Nis, Weeze.

Routes that will be kept: Alicante, Bergamo, Gdansk, Krakow, Stansted, Malaga, Podgorica, Poznan, Thessaloniki, Modlin, Edinburgh, Zadar, Naples and Pisa

Quite a few cuts by Ryanair. In another forum someone wrote that NYO is being closed because of a dispute with unions. Could the same be true of NUE or was it generally a rather unprofitable base for them?

Source:
https://www.dw.com/en/ryanair-will-clos ... a-51532836

Well quite a big blow to NUE airport...But why cut the routes instead of keeping them with flights TO Nue from other bases? ATH,BGY,BUD,KBP,MLA,CIA,STN, NAP are all bases...

My guess is that those routes could have been kept but they are not because of weaker performance. I mean, NUE-ATH is right between MUC and FRA and both airports have train stations so they are easily accessible and have multiple daily flights on both Aegean and Lufthansa.

Thessaloniki is probably kept because of a much larger tourist market but also because there is less competition.

Will be interesting to see if Wizz Air actually considers NUE as their next base. Now that would be interesting to follow.

They avoid opening bases in western Europe because it is more expensive, they opened Luton because London is the largest aviation market, and they were basically subsidiesed to Vienna as we're many others. However I can definitely see them increasing flights to these airports.

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:

The days of the secondary airports hours away from the cities Ryanair claims to serve are over. The gap between legacies and LCCs is simply not what is used to be in 2003 and a higher yield from the main airports outweighs the benefits of the lower operating costs in provincial airfields.

Not entirely true. Indeed the gap has become smaller, but major airports have become busier and since a lot of them in Europe are capacity restricted there's just no room for Ryanair. They have added a bunch of major airports indeed, however with limited numbers of flights. They're still far busier at secondary airports than at primary airports. Often the benefit of the smaller airports is in the faster turnaround times (shorter taxi distances). For example at Amsterdam it's very difficult for new airlines to get slots. Ryanair has a few, but not much. Their major gateway to the Netherlands remains Eindhoven, where they got far more flights than at Amsterdam. Regardless if they'd like to grow at Amsterdam or not, they just can't. Amsterdam is full, no airline can grow there.

Blerg wrote:

Thessaloniki is probably kept because of a much larger tourist market but also because there is less competition

Since when SKG is a much larger tourism market than ATH? Also for most Western Europeans (not to mention Americans or Asians), Thessaloniki and Northern Greece pretty much do not exist. And yes, I know that Condor or Jet2 fly to SKG, but compared to ATH or the main Greek islands (Crete, Rhodes, Santorini, etc), it is a very small market. It is very different than to say for Serbs or Romanians for whom Northern Greece is very popular because they just drive there.

As others have mentioned, those flights serve VFR traffic.

As for NUE I suspect a problem is that it is not really a major tourism destination like Berlin is. HAM had the same issue (and easyJet and Ryanair closed bases). For low-cost carriers is probably much easier to make something like Berlin work (despite competition), since Berlin is today both a major local market (even if not the wealthiest) and a massive tourism destination. So it work both ways for them.

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:

The days of the secondary airports hours away from the cities Ryanair claims to serve are over. The gap between legacies and LCCs is simply not what is used to be in 2003 and a higher yield from the main airports outweighs the benefits of the lower operating costs in provincial airfields.

Indeed. I was once in NYO and it is so far from Stockholm it does not make any sense today with Norwegian and everyone else at ARN. Not very different to what has happened to GRO (VS Barcelona) and HHN (VS Frankfurt/Luxembourg). Or RYG which was closed.

The only bases at non main airports that work are those like CRL, STN or BGY which are right in the middle of very large metropolitan regions (Benelux/Northern France, Greater London/SE England, Lombardia/Veneto).

sevenair wrote:

Ryanair, Europe’s No.1 airline, today (1 Oct) launched its UK Summer 2020 schedule with 14 new routes including exciting destinations for Summer such as Cluj (Romania), Pisa and Terceira (Portugal), and more than 500 routes in total which will deliver 46.3m customers p.a. and support 35,000 jobs at its 21 UK Airports.

Ryanair’s UK Summer 2020 schedule will deliver:

5 brand new routes – Edinburgh to Bydgoszcz (2 pw); Manchester to Pisa (2 pw); Stansted to Cluj (3 pw), Kosice (3 pw) & Terceira (1 pw);
9 new summer services – Exeter to Alicante (2 pw); Edinburgh to Bucharest (3 pw); London Stansted to Dresden (3 pw) & Essaouira (2 pw); London Luton to Krakow (4 pw) & Seville (3 pw); Manchester to Katowice (3 pw), Milan Malpensa (5 pw) & Prague (9 pw)
More flights on 46 other routes including destinations like Budapest, Milan Bergamo & Krakow
Over 500 routes in total
46.3m customers p.a.
35,000* on-site jobs

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryan ... -sale-now/

They also announced six new Southend routes just weeks ago, in addition to two new routes announced in August and Stansted to Lajes.

There definitely seems to be more grown than shrinkage.

I am baffled....They are cutting STN-NUE but opening STN-DRS...Does it really make sense?

Blerg wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

Could be.. I think NUE-SKG is also serving a large ex-pat commmunity from N.Greece because A3 flies in summer too, although at horrible hours...Wizzair expanding would be great but their focus is more Central and Eastern Europe

You mean that Aegean flies SKG-NUE? Do they operate night flights? Probably has to do with fleet utilization.

Yea they operate seasonal night flights to NUE and HAJ,LED plus charters to Poland and EVN

sevenair wrote:

I wonder why MOL doesn't just close UK bases and move the planes to the NYO, NUE and any other base that he may he forced to close? He did say Ryanair would 'pivot away' from the UK because of Brexit so surely this would be the perfect time to so pivot?

I don't know what the current 2019 figures are , but back in 2016 , 28% of all Ryanair revenue came from UK operations (https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content ... t-FY16.pdf) .

I can only imagine, Brexit or no Brexit, this number hasn't strayed too far from the 30% mark. Therefore no business is going to remove themselves form a market responsible for a third of its revenue.

No matter what 'soundbite' comes from MoL's lips, the fact remains that Stansted alone is big business for him and he knows it, we know it, but he banks on the less knowledgeable panicking thinking that Ryanair are going to move out! Don't think the shareholders would be too happy if they ever did!

Brexit hasn't really had any marked affect on travel in the UK. Most of the MSM is spun to make it look that way, but in reality most people aren't put off their holidays, they are just put off who they travel with...ie Thomas Cook, and tend to shop around more for the best deal rather than just plumb for the first travel agent they google.

Numbers on other carriers is actually increasing and other carriers are increasing aircraft based in the UK. Of all the carriers that have collapsed in recent years, most have occurred outside the UK (Aigle, Small Planet, Primera, air Berlin, Adria, cobalt, Wow etc)

SCQ83 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Thessaloniki is probably kept because of a much larger tourist market but also because there is less competition

Since when SKG is a much larger tourism market than ATH? Also for most Western Europeans (not to mention Americans or Asians), Thessaloniki and Northern Greece pretty much do not exist. And yes, I know that Condor or Jet2 fly to SKG, but compared to ATH or the main Greek islands (Crete, Rhodes, Santorini, etc), it is a very small market. It is very different than to say for Serbs or Romanians for whom Northern Greece is very popular because they just drive there.

As others have mentioned, those flights serve VFR traffic.

As for NUE I suspect a problem is that it is not really a major tourism destination like Berlin is. HAM had the same issue (and easyJet and Ryanair closed bases). For low-cost carriers is probably much easier to make something like Berlin work (despite competition), since Berlin is today both a major local market (even if not the wealthiest) and a massive tourism destination. So it work both ways for them.

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:

The days of the secondary airports hours away from the cities Ryanair claims to serve are over. The gap between legacies and LCCs is simply not what is used to be in 2003 and a higher yield from the main airports outweighs the benefits of the lower operating costs in provincial airfields.

Indeed. I was once in NYO and it is so far from Stockholm it does not make any sense today with Norwegian and everyone else at ARN. Not very different to what has happened to GRO (VS Barcelona) and HHN (VS Frankfurt/Luxembourg). Or RYG which was closed.

The only bases at non main airports that work are those like CRL, STN or BGY which are right in the middle of very large metropolitan regions (Benelux/Northern France, Greater London/SE England, Lombardia/Veneto).

I was merely speaking about demand to Athens and Thessaloniki from NUE, don't see what Americans and Brits have to do with this discussion. Thessaloniki is the entry point for all of northern Greece. ATH itself is mostly for people heading to the city, islands are either served via connections in ATH or through countless non-stop flights to the Greek island airports.

Also Chalkidiki is becoming increasingly popular with Germans which could be one of the reasons why these flights are staying.

https://news.gtp.gr/2018/03/13/halkidik ... ists-2018/

sevenair wrote:

leghorn wrote:

He needs to base planes in labour markets with looser regulation/laws such as Ireland, UK, Poland and Malta.
His staff may or may not still earn a market competitive wage but his planes are like ships flying under flags of convenience within the markets he operates on irrespective of whether those flags of convenience are E.U. or not E.U.
The company has already cut quite a number of routes in Britain but the main bases in the UK appear to be safe so long as the regulatory environment in which they operate remains favourable.

Could it not be air passenger duty that's the killer? I assume you're talking about UK domestics as as a whole FR have increased their routes, particularly to UK regions and have opened a new base in SEN.

In

In relation to domestics in the UK. Ryanair have failed abysmally on UK domestic routes, and let's not even start on passenger duty charges. I am talking about high volume routes where easyJet have successful and high frequency flying. Let's look at BFS as a prime example, one if the highest volume UK domestics. Ryanair have axed LGW and surrendered slots in the process, BFS STN should have been a winner, but axed, indeed all the domestics ex BHD were a mess and Ryanair blamed the runway issue. Many many flights and routes were very softly booked outside if peak days. Belfast being separated from Britain by water should present the most attractive set of routes. In Ryanair's case no,in easyJet and Flybe's yes.

The reason is very clear and I've not seen any discussion about this. Their approach to pricing and load factors is in my opinion the key weakness.

Ryanair want the seats filled at all costs. A large proportion of this domestic flying is a late booking market usually at a generous ticket level. In Ryanair's case they were flogging the market early on with 14.99/9.99/5.00 fares. In my opinion they need an alternative pricing strategy for domestic flying, or indeed a separate company to focus on this. Passengers pay be willing to pay a little extra to fly easyJet, I suspect this is true and I think many inside Ryanair may agree too. The Ryanair traditional approach of price invasion at what seem unsustainable levels is no longer fit for purpose because the competitors who are left no longer cut and run for the most part.

I

I disagree with the analysis above. They will continue to sell seats cheap for the near to mid-term until they help create issues for competitors and can pounce on weaknesses of other airlines in Europe. It is up to their shareholders to decide if they agree with that strategy or not and it doesn't matter to the rest of us.
Here specifically they are closing bases and routes because they temporarily don't have enough planes. It is as simple as that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/tra ... -1.4107163

Apart from the usual comments about M O'L being very demanding and not an easy person to work for the most important points I take out of this are:
"O’Leary is less concerned about Easyjet getting details of supplier contracts than he is about it learning Ryanair’s plans to deal with a delay in the delivery of the new Boeing 737 Max aircraft. Regulators have temporarily grounded this model, but are expected to allow it fly in coming months. Ryanair is coping with the delay by slowing growth plans and closing some bases.

O’Leary said he feared that, if Easyjet learned which bases it would close, the British carrier could move in there, potentially taking limited slots in some of the airports and blocking Ryanair from returning there when the new aircraft become available. Bellew has promised not to share confidential information, but Ryanair clearly thinks that the risks involved in him joining its rival are too great."

I'd guess most of these base and route closures are now announced but there might still be a few to be announced. Ryanair don't want to close bases for Easyjet to enter and take their passengers. It appears that Ryanair would like to come back to these airports and if their competitors only know they are closing them at the last possible moment then the chances are that their competitors won't fill the temporary void.

Personally, I think Ryanair are wrong here and being too pathologically "cheap" and they should be leasing two or three more 737-800s or A320s to serve the routes so that competitors don't steal routes from them while they wait for the supply of new planes to arrive.

They will be in the Irish High Court for well over a week by the time it is finished and that could have paid for months of lease on a 737 or A320 with those legal fees. No negative press, No vacant routes for their competitor to slip in to. It might cost 200k to lease an A320 or 737 per month but those routes are either making some profit or not loosing much.

It’s not “one or two” aircraft they are short of. It’s dozens. At the moment there just isn’t the availability of single-aisle aircraft, some are holding onto the aircraft they have.
Ryanair have an A320 operator with Lauda, so they could take either aircraft type.

leghorn wrote:

I disagree with the analysis above. They will continue to sell seats cheap for the near to mid-term until they help create issues for competitors and can pounce on weaknesses of other airlines in Europe. It is up to their shareholders to decide if they agree with that strategy or not and it doesn't matter to the rest of us.
Here specifically they are closing bases and routes because they temporarily don't have enough planes. It is as simple as that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/tra ... -1.4107163

Apart from the usual comments about M O'L being very demanding and not an easy person to work for the most important points I take out of this are:
"O’Leary is less concerned about Easyjet getting details of supplier contracts than he is about it learning Ryanair’s plans to deal with a delay in the delivery of the new Boeing 737 Max aircraft. Regulators have temporarily grounded this model, but are expected to allow it fly in coming months. Ryanair is coping with the delay by slowing growth plans and closing some bases.

O’Leary said he feared that, if Easyjet learned which bases it would close, the British carrier could move in there, potentially taking limited slots in some of the airports and blocking Ryanair from returning there when the new aircraft become available. Bellew has promised not to share confidential information, but Ryanair clearly thinks that the risks involved in him joining its rival are too great."

I'd guess most of these base and route closures are now announced but there might still be a few to be announced. Ryanair don't want to close bases for Easyjet to enter and take their passengers. It appears that Ryanair would like to come back to these airports and if their competitors only know they are closing them at the last possible moment then the chances are that their competitors won't fill the temporary void.

Personally, I think Ryanair are wrong here and being too pathologically "cheap" and they should be leasing two or three more 737-800s or A320s to serve the routes so that competitors don't steal routes from them while they wait for the supply of new planes to arrive.

They will be in the Irish High Court for well over a week by the time it is finished and that could have paid for months of lease on a 737 or A320 with those legal fees. No negative press, No vacant routes for their competitor to slip in to. It might cost 200k to lease an A320 or 737 per month but those routes are either making some profit or not loosing much.

So are Ryanair not expecting the Max back in service in the next 6 months?
Surely if they are, it’s a moot point about being short on Frames, as all the -8200s currently sitting in Seattle car parks will be operating, and they’ll therefore have the originally planned amount of Aircraft in service?

This just sounds like taking the opportunity to pass the blame to Boeing for FR closing their loss making bases?

The can only bring them online slowly at a rate of 6 to 8 per month despite how many may be in a field in the US.

sevenair wrote:

leghorn wrote:

He needs to base planes in labour markets with looser regulation/laws such as Ireland, UK, Poland and Malta.
His staff may or may not still earn a market competitive wage but his planes are like ships flying under flags of convenience within the markets he operates on irrespective of whether those flags of convenience are E.U. or not E.U.
The company has already cut quite a number of routes in Britain but the main bases in the UK appear to be safe so long as the regulatory environment in which they operate remains favourable.

Could it not be air passenger duty that's the killer?

I don't see a role for UK APD here. It's equally payable by all carriers for UK (with some airport exceptions) departures. Band A rates (up to 2,000 miles) have been largely stable for a decade so they can't claim newly higher rates have killed demand.

Maybe they could do with a dozen aircraft but a handful would be enough to keep the routes flying a few days each week and fend off other carriers from those airports

IrishLessor wrote:

The reason is very clear and I've not seen any discussion about this. Their approach to pricing and load factors is in my opinion the key weakness.

Ryanair want the seats filled at all costs. A large proportion of this domestic flying is a late booking market usually at a generous ticket level. In Ryanair's case they were flogging the market early on with 14.99/9.99/5.00 fares.
I

I think Ryanair sees its passengers as an audience. Their customer base is huge, more than 100M pax per year. That's a huge audience. What Ryanair aims is to sell ancilliary services to its audience, that's checked-in bags, travel-insurance, on board meals, selection of seats, accommodation and much more. They seem to have been quite successful in doing this.

leghorn wrote:

I disagree with the analysis above. They will continue to sell seats cheap for the near to mid-term until they help create issues for competitors and can pounce on weaknesses of other airlines in Europe. It is up to their shareholders to decide if they agree with that strategy or not and it doesn't matter to the rest of us.
Here specifically they are closing bases and routes because they temporarily don't have enough planes. It is as simple as that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/tra ... -1.4107163

Apart from the usual comments about M O'L being very demanding and not an easy person to work for the most important points I take out of this are:
"O’Leary is less concerned about Easyjet getting details of supplier contracts than he is about it learning Ryanair’s plans to deal with a delay in the delivery of the new Boeing 737 Max aircraft. Regulators have temporarily grounded this model, but are expected to allow it fly in coming months. Ryanair is coping with the delay by slowing growth plans and closing some bases.

O’Leary said he feared that, if Easyjet learned which bases it would close, the British carrier could move in there, potentially taking limited slots in some of the airports and blocking Ryanair from returning there when the new aircraft become available. Bellew has promised not to share confidential information, but Ryanair clearly thinks that the risks involved in him joining its rival are too great."

I'd guess most of these base and route closures are now announced but there might still be a few to be announced. Ryanair don't want to close bases for Easyjet to enter and take their passengers. It appears that Ryanair would like to come back to these airports and if their competitors only know they are closing them at the last possible moment then the chances are that their competitors won't fill the temporary void.

Personally, I think Ryanair are wrong here and being too pathologically "cheap" and they should be leasing two or three more 737-800s or A320s to serve the routes so that competitors don't steal routes from them while they wait for the supply of new planes to arrive.

They will be in the Irish High Court for well over a week by the time it is finished and that could have paid for months of lease on a 737 or A320 with those legal fees. No negative press, No vacant routes for their competitor to slip in to. It might cost 200k to lease an A320 or 737 per month but those routes are either making some profit or not loosing much.

Leghorn,
Comments acknowledged. It's clear that they are closing routes and bases due to lack of new deliveries/max.
My points were specifically about Ryanair on domestics, they've been axing these long before the Max issues, fact.

It's fare too simplistic to blame their failure in the domestic market on aircraft shortage. It's not new, and for the examples I've given are true. The greatest has to be BFS LGW, they couldn't make this stack up and surrendered the IAG/bmi remedy slots which are now gone forever.

Furthermore, as a commercial enterprise and with an obligation to the shareholder, Ryanair has to trim the least profitable routes and bases in their network, it makes absolute sense. The aircraft shortage will drive them to get more return from less resource. So take note, where they've trimmed routes you can be sure these were the least attractive commercially..

What I don't understand is if the 737 MAX deliveries is the real problem, then why are they getting rid of older aircraft? If they're really need more aircraft they could extend leases or defer selling them. This year 9 737-800's have left the fleet so far: EI-DAC, EI-EPE/G, EI-ESR/W/X/Y/Z, EI-EVD.

BasilFawlty wrote:

What I don't understand is if the 737 MAX deliveries is the real problem, then why are they getting rid of older aircraft? If they're really need more aircraft they could extend leases or defer selling them. This year 9 737-800's have left the fleet so far: EI-DAC, EI-EPE/G, EI-ESR/W/X/Y/Z, EI-EVD.

Maybe they were due for heave maintenance and Ryanair didn't feel like investing in planes they were not going to use for much longer. That said, I do wonder why they didn't lease additional capacity on the market to cover these shortages.

Blerg wrote:

BasilFawlty wrote:

What I don't understand is if the 737 MAX deliveries is the real problem, then why are they getting rid of older aircraft? If they're really need more aircraft they could extend leases or defer selling them. This year 9 737-800's have left the fleet so far: EI-DAC, EI-EPE/G, EI-ESR/W/X/Y/Z, EI-EVD.

Maybe they were due for heave maintenance and Ryanair didn't feel like investing in planes they were not going to use for much longer. That said, I do wonder why they didn't lease additional capacity on the market to cover these shortages.

It's the best moment to sell airplanes. They might never get again that much for them. This is surely more profitable than flying every possible winter route. Let me also remind that Ryanair usually parked a lot of aircraft during winter seasons across Europe.

Have prices for used 738s for sale (not just 6 month lease) gone up that much ? I would have thought airlines continue to believe the Max will return to service in the first 6 months of 2020. Those airlines with grounded Max aircraft might be desperate to get their hands on aircraft for a few more months - but doubt they would be buying up large numbers of used 738 to cover them for less than a year

Delta777Jet wrote:

Blerg wrote:

BasilFawlty wrote:

What I don't understand is if the 737 MAX deliveries is the real problem, then why are they getting rid of older aircraft? If they're really need more aircraft they could extend leases or defer selling them. This year 9 737-800's have left the fleet so far: EI-DAC, EI-EPE/G, EI-ESR/W/X/Y/Z, EI-EVD.

Maybe they were due for heave maintenance and Ryanair didn't feel like investing in planes they were not going to use for much longer. That said, I do wonder why they didn't lease additional capacity on the market to cover these shortages.

It's the best moment to sell airplanes. They might never get again that much for them. This is surely more profitable than flying every possible winter route. Let me also remind that Ryanair usually parked a lot of aircraft during winter seasons across Europe.

They sold a few on sale and temporary lease back terms recently; https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... by-461194/

"He cites a deal reach with lessor GECAS, under which Ryanair will keep seven of 10 "older 737NGs" that the operator had originally intended to sell this winter."

SCQ83 wrote:

Indeed. I was once in NYO and it is so far from Stockholm it does not make any sense today with Norwegian and everyone else at ARN. Not very different to what has happened to GRO (VS Barcelona) and HHN (VS Frankfurt/Luxembourg). Or RYG which was closed.

Girona seems safe but employees had to agree changes to contracts
https://www.catalunyapress.es/texto-dia ... eda-girona