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enilria
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OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:01 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".



Pretty quiet holiday week

4O CUN-LAX JAN 0.2>0[1.0]

I assume none of this former Molukele flying is really new?
9X HNL-JHM MAR 0>5[0] APR 0>5[0] MAY 0>0.5[7]
9X HNL-LUP MAR 0>0.8[0] APR 0>0.9[0]
9X IPL-LAX JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0]
9X LNY-OGG MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
9X LUP-MKK MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0]
9X MUE-OGG MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>0.2[1.9]

**AA COR-MIA MAY 0.6>0.1[0] JUN 0.6>0[0.5] JUL 0.5>0[0.5] AUG 0.6>0[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6]
AA MIA-MVD APR 1.0>0.7[1.0]

AC PHX-YUL JAN 0.5>0.3[0.5]

AF CDG-MSP MAY 0.9>0.5[0.9]
AF CDG-SEA JUN 0.7>1.0[0.9]

AJ FXE-GHB JAN 0>0.6[0.5]

AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
AS HNL-PDX JUN 1.4>1.0[1.2] JUL 2>1.0[1.3] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.2]
Seems like a lot of frequency for IAD!
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

AT CMN-JFK APR 1.2>1.0[1.3]

AV BOG-IAD JUN 1.0>1.6[1.0]

B6 BNA-BOS MAR 3>1.9[2]
B6 BOS-BUF JUL 5>4[5]
B6 BOS-CHS MAR 1.4>2[2]
B6 BOS-SDQ APR 1.5>1.1[1.0] JUL 3>2[1.7]
B6 BOS-TPA MAR 5>7[5]
B6 CUN-FLL JUN 3>2[1.6] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2] SEP 0.8>0.5[1.1]
B6 EWR-FLL APR 6>5[6]
B6 EWR-MCO APR 7>6[6]
B6 EWR-TPA MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2]
B6 FLL-UIO AUG 1.0>1.7[2] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 JFK-PAP APR 2>1.2[1.1]
B6 JFK-POP JUN 1.7>1.0[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ JUN 2>1.7[3]
B6 JFK-SAV JUN 2>1.3[2]
B6 LGB-SEA APR 1.6>2[1.9]

I thought it was odd they would add the route at the same time as LH
*DE MUC-SEA JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0]

DI JFK-LGW APR 1.8>2[2] MAY 1.9>2[2] JUN 1.9>2[2] JUL 1.8>2[2] AUG 1.9>2[2] SEP 1.8>2[2]

DY CDG-LAX MAY 1.4>1.1[1.2] JUN 1.4>1.1[1.1] AUG 1.4>1.1[1.2]
DY LAX-MAD APR 0.6>0.4[0.4] MAY 0.6>0.4[0.6] JUN 0.7>0.4[0.6] JUL 0.7>0.4[0.6] AUG 0.7>0.4[0.5] SEP 0.6>0.4[0.6]
DY LAX-OSL APR 0.6>0.3[0.3] MAY 0.6>0.3[0.3] JUN 0.6>0.3[0.3] JUL 0.6>0.3[0.3] AUG 0.6>0.3[0.3] SEP 0.6>0.3[0.3]

EW DUS-EWR MAY 1.0>2[0.9] JUN 1.0>2[0.9] JUL 1.0>2[0.8] AUG 1.0>2[0.9] SEP 1.0>2[0.9]
EW DUS-JFK MAY 0.4>0.8[0.9] JUN 0.8>1.7[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.7[0.9] AUG 0.9>1.7[0.8] SEP 0.6>1.2[0.9]
EW DUS-MIA MAY 0.5>0.9[0.7] JUN 0.5>1.1[0.7] JUL 0.6>1.2[0.7] AUG 0.6>1.2[0.7] SEP 0.4>0.8[0.4]
That's a nice increase. I thought EW was backing out of DUS flying???
*EW DUS-RSW MAY 0.4>0.8[0.4] JUN 0.4>0.9[0.4] JUL 0.4>0.8[0.4] AUG 0.4>0.8[0.5] SEP 0.4>0.9[0.4]

F9 ABQ-DEN JAN 0.4>0.1[0]
F9 BIL-DEN JAN 0.5>0.1[0]

FI IAD-KEF MAY 1.5>1.2[1.5]
FI JFK-KEF MAY 1.5>1.2[1.4]

GV DLG-KEK JAN 0>0.9[0] FEB 0>0.8[0] MAR 0>0.8[0] APR 0>0.9[0] MAY 0>0.8[0] JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>0.9[0] AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>0.9[0]

I4 CGA-KLW JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3] MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3] JUL 3>0[3] AUG 3>0[3] SEP 3>0[3]

MW IPL-LAX JAN 3>0[3] FEB 3>0[3]

RJ AMM-DTW JUN 0.4>0.2[0.3]

SV JED-LAX JUN 0.4>0.6[0.7] JUL 0.4>0.7[0.7] AUG 0.5>0.7[0.7]

UA BDL-ORD APR 3>4[4] MAY 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[4]
UA DAY-DEN FEB 1.6>1.0[2.0]
UA DCA-ORD JUN 12>14[14] JUL 12>14[14]
UA LAS-ORD SEP 6>5[5]
UA LAX-RAP JUN 0>0.3[0.1] AUG 0>0.2[0.3]
UA MCI-SFO FEB 1.6>1.0[2.0]
UA ORD-PIT JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[6] AUG 5>6[6] SEP 5>6[6]
UA ORD-SAT JUN 3>4[4] JUL 3>4[4]
UA RAP-SFO JUN 0.1>0.3[0.1]
UA SFO-YYZ FEB 1.6>1.0[0] MAR 2>1.1[0.1]

VA LAX-SYD AUG 1.0>0.7[0.9]

WS HNL-YYC FEB 0.3>0[0.3]
WS OGG-YEG FEB 0.2>0[0.3]
WS OGG-YVR FEB 2>3[2]
WS OGG-YYC FEB 0.8>0.5[1.0]
WS PHX-YEG FEB 1.4>0.9[1.6]

X4 HNS-SGY APR 0.1>0.6[0]
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:05 pm

Any chance the Eurowings adds are filing errors, both of the Eurowings flights To EWR are slotted for the same exact time.
 
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Polot
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:22 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Any chance the Eurowings adds are filing errors, both of the Eurowings flights To EWR are slotted for the same exact time.

The fact that all the changes look to be effectively doubling their schedule is a little suspicious.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:39 pm

Frontier drops BIL-DEN to just once per week during January but will completely drop ABQ from Jan 6 thru Feb 1. Both routes will then go back to 3 days per week in Feb.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:41 pm

Thanks as always, enilria!

No DL this week? Glitch?
 
Ishrion
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:50 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

No DL this week? Glitch?


Might be the same as last week where they haven't loaded everything yet?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm

enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:11 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:


Run the calc as ASMs instead of flights and it's a lot closer than many people in SEA want to acknowledge.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:27 pm

Thanks, as always, for one of the highlights of my Sunday.

enilria wrote:
**AA COR-MIA MAY 0.6>0.1[0] JUN 0.6>0[0.5] JUL 0.5>0[0.5] AUG 0.6>0[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6]
AA MIA-MVD APR 1.0>0.7[1.0]


Over in the thread on the COR cut, there was some discussion that the loss of the LA/4M codeshare is a challenge for MIA-COR because it drastically reduced the choices for AA passengers who needed to go one direction or the other on days the flight did not operate. It seems like similar logic might apply to sub-daily MIA-MVD. I think the DL/LA tieup may really hurt these secondary markets. They really need a strong MIA hub to work. DL doesn’t have that and won’t for the foreseeable future.

I do think that a well-chosen set of 8-10 new domestic destinations connecting to a late night southbound bank at MIA might be something DL/LA should consider but I’m not sure that would be enough for the more marginal routes. But, that sort of operation is relatively easy from a crew and aircraft scheduling perspective (the domestic flights and crews can overnight at MIA) so perhaps there’s potential.
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FlyPNS1
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:32 pm

It’ll be interesting to see if IAD-SEA can really sustain all that capacity. With UA at 4x, AS at 3x and DL at 2x, that’s nine flights a day in summer. Even considering connecting flows at each end, it’s a lot of capacity. Five years ago, there were only 3x flights daily on this route...all UA.
 
carljanderson
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:45 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

No DL this week? Glitch?


Let's all speculate on how many routes they'll announce on the 12th (Investor Day).. (I kid).. :stirthepot:
 
SUNCTRY738
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:48 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0


Keep in mind, AS has to serve those markets nonstop because it has no other hubs to connect those cities to SEA. AS either serves those markets nonstop or not at all.

DL on the other hand can route traffic to those markets through SLC/MSP/DTW/ATL. And DL can analyze its connecting traffic flow to those markets to determine when it can add nonstop service at a profit. DL has the luxury of not having to fly to every market nonstop. AS does not.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 5:21 pm

AS operates 2X SEA-MSY between October and May. Summer is the slow season in MSY so it makes sense in the respect, though summer is peak season for SEA.
Spread hope like fire.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:33 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0


Keep in mind that AS has far more gate space at SEA than DL. But AS will be pushing it.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:45 pm

DE sometimes doesn’t run and hide based off what LH does. Evidently DE will be basing as 763 at MUC next summer for the first time in three years. YHZ-MUC comes back weekly too.

I see WS this week are following AC in Western Canada with MAX cut extensions.
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:50 pm

Chuska wrote:
Frontier drops BIL-DEN to just once per week during January but will completely drop ABQ from Jan 6 thru Feb 1. Both routes will then go back to 3 days per week in Feb.


Never understood how they don't run ABQ and BIL daily. In terms of markets that could support daily to DEN, these are definitely two of them.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:


Run the calc as ASMs instead of flights and it's a lot closer than many people in SEA want to acknowledge.


If you drop out the long-haul Asia markets, the ASMs aren't that close. Running total seats or seats per market is a better comparison of where the carriers are at for the SEA market. Yes, connections play a part for both carriers but we know that both are jockeying for control of the O&D market.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
It’ll be interesting to see if IAD-SEA can really sustain all that capacity. With UA at 4x, AS at 3x and DL at 2x, that’s nine flights a day in summer. Even considering connecting flows at each end, it’s a lot of capacity. Five years ago, there were only 3x flights daily on this route...all UA.

PDEW numbers show growth over the past couple years.

2015Q1 652.06
2015Q2 1056.43
2015Q3 1137.66
2015Q4 898.10
2016Q1 689.01
2016Q2 1090.55
2016Q3 1142.88
2016Q4 849.08
2017Q1 742.44
2017Q2 1111.70
2017Q3 1215.33
2017Q4 959.18
2018Q1 747.39
2018Q3 1254.51
2018Q4 976.30
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.
 
BA
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.


There are no spare gates in SEA, so there's nothing to give. Airlines are maxing out the gate utilization and having to bus passengers to planes at remote stands when there are no available gates.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
ryby92
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Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:48 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Thanks, as always, for one of the highlights of my Sunday.

enilria wrote:
**AA COR-MIA MAY 0.6>0.1[0] JUN 0.6>0[0.5] JUL 0.5>0[0.5] AUG 0.6>0[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6]
AA MIA-MVD APR 1.0>0.7[1.0]


Over in the thread on the COR cut, there was some discussion that the loss of the LA/4M codeshare is a challenge for MIA-COR because it drastically reduced the choices for AA passengers who needed to go one direction or the other on days the flight did not operate. It seems like similar logic might apply to sub-daily MIA-MVD. I think the DL/LA tieup may really hurt these secondary markets. They really need a strong MIA hub to work. DL doesn’t have that and won’t for the foreseeable future.

I do think that a well-chosen set of 8-10 new domestic destinations connecting to a late night southbound bank at MIA might be something DL/LA should consider but I’m not sure that would be enough for the more marginal routes. But, that sort of operation is relatively easy from a crew and aircraft scheduling perspective (the domestic flights and crews can overnight at MIA) so perhaps there’s potential.



Except that the only flight LATAM operates from COR is to Buenos Aires and Santiago and from MVD to Sao Paolo and Santiago Chile. It's not like there are onward connections from these two destinations so I do not get your point here.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:49 pm

BA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.


There are no spare gates in SEA, so there's nothing to give. Airlines are maxing out the gate utilization and having to bus passengers to planes at remote stands when there are no available gates.

That's why I said upgauge in order to get more gates.
 
pmanni1
Posts: 242
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:15 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

AS adding a 3rd flight to MCI is clearly trying to knock DL off of this route. They already succeeded in knocking WN off of it.
 
rheinlaender
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:17 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:04 pm

EW DUS-EWR MAY 1.0>2[0.9] JUN 1.0>2[0.9] JUL 1.0>2[0.8] AUG 1.0>2[0.9] SEP 1.0>2[0.9]
EW DUS-JFK MAY 0.4>0.8[0.9] JUN 0.8>1.7[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.7[0.9] AUG 0.9>1.7[0.8] SEP 0.6>1.2[0.9]
EW DUS-MIA MAY 0.5>0.9[0.7] JUN 0.5>1.1[0.7] JUL 0.6>1.2[0.7] AUG 0.6>1.2[0.7] SEP 0.4>0.8[0.4]
That's a nice increase. I thought EW was backing out of DUS flying???


That seems wrong, according to this Lufthansa press release it will be daily in the summer 2020.

Eurowings is no longer commercially responsible for long haul, they will operate on behalf of Lufthansa. Under Eurowings or a new brand.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1714
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
BA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.


There are no spare gates in SEA, so there's nothing to give. Airlines are maxing out the gate utilization and having to bus passengers to planes at remote stands when there are no available gates.

That's why I said upgauge in order to get more gates.


But if there are no gates to get than what good does upgauging on routes that don't necessarily warrant it do? Moving from an E175 to an A220 or a A320 doesn't make a difference if there just aren't any extra gates to give DL. That's just pissing into the wind, basically - sorry about the vulgarity.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:41 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
BA wrote:

There are no spare gates in SEA, so there's nothing to give. Airlines are maxing out the gate utilization and having to bus passengers to planes at remote stands when there are no available gates.

That's why I said upgauge in order to get more gates.


But if there are no gates to get than what good does upgauging on routes that don't necessarily warrant it do? Moving from an E175 to an A220 or a A320 doesn't make a difference if there just aren't any extra gates to give DL. That's just pissing into the wind, basically - sorry about the vulgarity.


I could be entirely wrong here but my understanding is that they reallocate gates based on seat offered. So upgauging would allow they to get more gates. In an article, I think as management actually said they would lose gates if they don't have enough seats or something like that. I could be entirely wrong here.
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 110
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:10 am

alasizon wrote:
FlyPNS1 wrote:
It’ll be interesting to see if IAD-SEA can really sustain all that capacity. With UA at 4x, AS at 3x and DL at 2x, that’s nine flights a day in summer. Even considering connecting flows at each end, it’s a lot of capacity. Five years ago, there were only 3x flights daily on this route...all UA.

PDEW numbers show growth over the past couple years.

2015Q1 652.06
2015Q2 1056.43
2015Q3 1137.66
2015Q4 898.10
2016Q1 689.01
2016Q2 1090.55
2016Q3 1142.88
2016Q4 849.08
2017Q1 742.44
2017Q2 1111.70
2017Q3 1215.33
2017Q4 959.18
2018Q1 747.39
2018Q3 1254.51
2018Q4 976.30


With Amazon HQ2 starting to coming online in Arlington, PDEW is only going to continue to increase.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3532
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:12 am

tphuang wrote:
AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.


While most of DL's domestic nonstop routes out of SEA are to destinations that already have nonstop service out of SEA on AS, DL still has nonstop service out of SEA to CVG, which isn't currently served by AS.

In addition to SEA-CVG nonstop service, DL also has nonstop service out of SEA to destinations in Europe and East Asia that aren't served by AS such as AMS, PEK, CDG, KIX, ICN, and TYO.
 
BA
Posts: 10514
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:35 am

tphuang wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's why I said upgauge in order to get more gates.


But if there are no gates to get than what good does upgauging on routes that don't necessarily warrant it do? Moving from an E175 to an A220 or a A320 doesn't make a difference if there just aren't any extra gates to give DL. That's just pissing into the wind, basically - sorry about the vulgarity.


I could be entirely wrong here but my understanding is that they reallocate gates based on seat offered. So upgauging would allow they to get more gates. In an article, I think as management actually said they would lose gates if they don't have enough seats or something like that. I could be entirely wrong here.


But that's the point, there are no more gates to give, so even if they did upgauge and thus offer more seats, they can't get gates that don't physically exist.

The only way to lose gates at Sea-Tac is if enough flights get cut to the point that gates aren't being utilized sufficiently. Sea-Tac has some of the highest gate utilization of any airport in the country, so we're not close to that point.

After the North Satellite renovation finishes in 2021, there will be no gate additions until the North Terminal is built, currently the first phase is projected in 2027 although Alaska recently is pushing a proposal to get a portion of that phase done by 2025.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... -2-3b.html
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:24 am

BA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:

But if there are no gates to get than what good does upgauging on routes that don't necessarily warrant it do? Moving from an E175 to an A220 or a A320 doesn't make a difference if there just aren't any extra gates to give DL. That's just pissing into the wind, basically - sorry about the vulgarity.


I could be entirely wrong here but my understanding is that they reallocate gates based on seat offered. So upgauging would allow they to get more gates. In an article, I think as management actually said they would lose gates if they don't have enough seats or something like that. I could be entirely wrong here.


But that's the point, there are no more gates to give, so even if they did upgauge and thus offer more seats, they can't get gates that don't physically exist.

The only way to lose gates at Sea-Tac is if enough flights get cut to the point that gates aren't being utilized sufficiently. Sea-Tac has some of the highest gate utilization of any airport in the country, so we're not close to that point.

After the North Satellite renovation finishes in 2021, there will be no gate additions until the North Terminal is built, currently the first phase is projected in 2027 although Alaska recently is pushing a proposal to get a portion of that phase done by 2025.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... -2-3b.html

Not according to this article.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... pressures/

"The Port of Seattle allocates gates at Sea-Tac (SEA) according to the seat share among airlines over a nine-month period.

“Delta has been growing at a rate of 15 percent or more this year. So we need to put as many seats through SEA as possible to try to maintain or grow our gate footprint,” Whitney wrote. “If we do not grow, we will lose gates in SEA.”"
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3621
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:33 am

BA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:

But if there are no gates to get than what good does upgauging on routes that don't necessarily warrant it do? Moving from an E175 to an A220 or a A320 doesn't make a difference if there just aren't any extra gates to give DL. That's just pissing into the wind, basically - sorry about the vulgarity.


I could be entirely wrong here but my understanding is that they reallocate gates based on seat offered. So upgauging would allow they to get more gates. In an article, I think as management actually said they would lose gates if they don't have enough seats or something like that. I could be entirely wrong here.


But that's the point, there are no more gates to give, so even if they did upgauge and thus offer more seats, they can't get gates that don't physically exist.

The only way to lose gates at Sea-Tac is if enough flights get cut to the point that gates aren't being utilized sufficiently. Sea-Tac has some of the highest gate utilization of any airport in the country, so we're not close to that point.


That's not at all how it works. Gates are allocated based on a carriers percentage of seats. Therefore, whoever has the lowest seats per gate will end up forfeiting a gate to whoever has the highest seats per gate (subject to rounding). So if DL increases their percent of total seats then they WILL get more gates. It's an inevitability. That is why AS is so desperate to add their own seats to keep DL from gaining gates.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1802
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:46 am

DL doesn't need to decide anything in SEA. It's doing just fine and very happy with the hub...and eagerly awaiting the new IAF for additional Asia growth.

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1802
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:48 am

AS a periodically flown 3x SEA-MCI in past, usually in summer.

pmanni1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

AS adding a 3rd flight to MCI is clearly trying to knock DL off of this route. They already succeeded in knocking WN off of it.
 
BA
Posts: 10514
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:54 am

Rdh3e wrote:
BA wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I could be entirely wrong here but my understanding is that they reallocate gates based on seat offered. So upgauging would allow they to get more gates. In an article, I think as management actually said they would lose gates if they don't have enough seats or something like that. I could be entirely wrong here.


But that's the point, there are no more gates to give, so even if they did upgauge and thus offer more seats, they can't get gates that don't physically exist.

The only way to lose gates at Sea-Tac is if enough flights get cut to the point that gates aren't being utilized sufficiently. Sea-Tac has some of the highest gate utilization of any airport in the country, so we're not close to that point.



That's not at all how it works. Gates are allocated based on a carriers percentage of seats. Therefore, whoever has the lowest seats per gate will end up forfeiting a gate to whoever has the highest seats per gate (subject to rounding). So if DL increases their percent of total seats then they WILL get more gates. It's an inevitability. That is why AS is so desperate to add their own seats to keep DL from gaining gates.


AS is already down 6-7 gates due to the North Satellite renovation. They're the largest user of remote stand boardings of any airline serving Sea-Tac. Due to the North Satellite renovation, this year they began leasing 2 gates on Concourse B that either belonged to Southwest or were previously common use gates (I think they were common use). This is helping them offset some of the gate loss on the North Satellite.

With them having to give up the most gates due to construction for the next 2 years, they're far from losing any gates.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
evank516
Posts: 2122
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:00 am

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0


To add, it looks like DL's upgauge to the A220 on SEA-MCI is cancelled.
 
717atOGG
Posts: 882
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:08 am

evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0


To add, it looks like DL's upgauge to the A220 on SEA-MCI is cancelled.

Looks like they're switching the route to a 737-800 instead, so still a capacity increase compared to the E175 that currently flies it.
A320/321, A332, 712, 73G/8/9ER, 744, 752/3, E145, E175
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3621
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:18 am

BA wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
BA wrote:

But that's the point, there are no more gates to give, so even if they did upgauge and thus offer more seats, they can't get gates that don't physically exist.

The only way to lose gates at Sea-Tac is if enough flights get cut to the point that gates aren't being utilized sufficiently. Sea-Tac has some of the highest gate utilization of any airport in the country, so we're not close to that point.



That's not at all how it works. Gates are allocated based on a carriers percentage of seats. Therefore, whoever has the lowest seats per gate will end up forfeiting a gate to whoever has the highest seats per gate (subject to rounding). So if DL increases their percent of total seats then they WILL get more gates. It's an inevitability. That is why AS is so desperate to add their own seats to keep DL from gaining gates.


AS is already down 6-7 gates due to the North Satellite renovation. They're the largest user of remote stand boardings of any airline serving Sea-Tac. Due to the North Satellite renovation, this year they began leasing 2 gates on Concourse B that either belonged to Southwest or were previously common use gates (I think they were common use). This is helping them offset some of the gate loss on the North Satellite.

With them having to give up the most gates due to construction for the next 2 years, they're far from losing any gates.

But that doesn't stop DL from getting gates from someone else for whom Seattle isn't a priority, like an ever shrinking AA, or MAX gutted WN.
 
dfw88
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:45 am

ryby92 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Thanks, as always, for one of the highlights of my Sunday.

enilria wrote:
**AA COR-MIA MAY 0.6>0.1[0] JUN 0.6>0[0.5] JUL 0.5>0[0.5] AUG 0.6>0[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6]
AA MIA-MVD APR 1.0>0.7[1.0]


Over in the thread on the COR cut, there was some discussion that the loss of the LA/4M codeshare is a challenge for MIA-COR because it drastically reduced the choices for AA passengers who needed to go one direction or the other on days the flight did not operate. It seems like similar logic might apply to sub-daily MIA-MVD. I think the DL/LA tieup may really hurt these secondary markets. They really need a strong MIA hub to work. DL doesn’t have that and won’t for the foreseeable future.

I do think that a well-chosen set of 8-10 new domestic destinations connecting to a late night southbound bank at MIA might be something DL/LA should consider but I’m not sure that would be enough for the more marginal routes. But, that sort of operation is relatively easy from a crew and aircraft scheduling perspective (the domestic flights and crews can overnight at MIA) so perhaps there’s potential.



Except that the only flight LATAM operates from COR is to Buenos Aires and Santiago and from MVD to Sao Paolo and Santiago Chile. It's not like there are onward connections from these two destinations so I do not get your point here.


Both LA and AA have a number of onward connections from GRU and SCL, with a few from EZE as well. So I think his point is that if AA flies 3 or 4 weekly to a city in SA that has LA connections then they can actually sell daily flights. Maybe the customer flies down on the MIA-COR nonstop but needs to return on a day that flight isn't offered so they route home to MIA with a connection in SCL instead. With the LA partnership such a routing is conceivable and results in effectively daily service to COR even if it's not daily on AA metal. Without LA, AA is just left with 3 or 4 weekly service which makes many routes much harder to sustain. I don't know if that's really the reason MIA-COR is going away, but it's certainly a valid point and an interesting thought.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1714
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:26 am

n7371f wrote:
AS a periodically flown 3x SEA-MCI in past, usually in summer.

pmanni1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

AS adding a 3rd flight to MCI is clearly trying to knock DL off of this route. They already succeeded in knocking WN off of it.


This is the first time AS has flown SEA-MCI 3x daily.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:21 am

Midwestindy wrote:
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

Depending on season, AS operates 2xMSY and DL ops 1x or last time less than daily.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ASFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:56 am

Midwestindy wrote:
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0


AS will also be operating SEA-OMA 2x daily
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:57 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS HLN-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
*AS IAD-SEA JUN 2>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.9>3[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[1.9]
AS IND-SEA MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]


Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0

AS is a lot stronger than DL at SEA. And AS is dumping a lot of capacity next summer. It's putting all its eggs in there and after cutting back on a bunch of money losing routes out of Bay Area. I presume a lot of these adds are not really great for margins, but they have to do it since SEA allocates gates based on seats capacity.

At some point, DL needs to decide what it wants to do in SEA. If it wants to stick with AS long term, it needs to enact a plan that would be a lot more costly in the short term (serious amount upgauging + maximizing current gate allocation) so that it can get more gates. If it doesn't do that, their entire SEA operation will be a huge luxury item in the next recession.

I don’t disagree. If we have a deep recession SEA and BOS are at risk. OTOH, we may have a shallow recession.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:59 pm

enilria wrote:
I don’t disagree. If we have a deep recession SEA and BOS are at risk. OTOH, we may have a shallow recession.

When I look at their moves, it just seems to be an airline that can't wait to get on with its next exciting project. The latest being Latam. We will see how it works out. They are going to see a lot of cost pressures with their recent moves to improve product. And UA is making a real big play to improve their share of corporate revenues, which is what's been lifting DL recently.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:35 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
It’ll be interesting to see if IAD-SEA can really sustain all that capacity. With UA at 4x, AS at 3x and DL at 2x, that’s nine flights a day in summer. Even considering connecting flows at each end, it’s a lot of capacity. Five years ago, there were only 3x flights daily on this route...all UA.


IAD is the only option for additional flights with Amazon HQ2 coming in since DCA is slot restricted. All three will probably add this capacity hoping to attract the lion's share of new demand. After Amazon settles in and it becomes clear who Amazon is choosing, I would imagine some trimming to this capacity. Current SEA is 2x UA, 1x DL, and 1x AS from IAD. AS is 2x from DCA. AS 321neos used at DCA have decent number of premium seats. I imagine that DCA will be obvious first choice especially for execs. IAD will be picking up what can't fit on those two flights. I wonder how high fares will go on the DCA-SEA flights? First week of May currently $560 round trip for "Main". From IAD it is $408. UA is $408 and DL is $397. I think DCA trip could easily get over $600 or up to $700, especially if they have a fare agreement with Amazon. That will leave fewer seats to sell and they will want to get max fare. As for IAD, I would expect prices to continue $100 below DCA for a while.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:13 pm

717atOGG wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Hadn't seen the frequencies before this, but I had no idea how far behind in SEA DL really is, especially with AS is putting some serious growth into SEA:
Next summer,
SEA-MCI, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-IAD, AS operates 3 flights to DL's 2 flights (not including DCA)
SEA-MCO/RDU/BNA/IND/AUS/TPA, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 1 flight
SEA-SAT/STL/IAH/PIT/PHL/BWI, AS operates 2 flights to DL's 0
SEA-FLL/MSY, AS operates 1 flight to DL's 0


To add, it looks like DL's upgauge to the A220 on SEA-MCI is cancelled.

Looks like they're switching the route to a 737-800 instead, so still a capacity increase compared to the E175 that currently flies it.


Effective when? I don't see it on Delta.com yet.

Still hoping to see upgauges on LGA-MCI as well.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don’t disagree. If we have a deep recession SEA and BOS are at risk. OTOH, we may have a shallow recession.

When I look at their moves, it just seems to be an airline that can't wait to get on with its next exciting project. The latest being Latam. We will see how it works out. They are going to see a lot of cost pressures with their recent moves to improve product. And UA is making a real big play to improve their share of corporate revenues, which is what's been lifting DL recently.


At the risk of going OT, I think in a recession, DL is in much better shape than UA or (especially) AA, because DL has less debt and a superior inflight product.

AA's debt level is so high that they are at serious risk of having to file Chapter XI in the next recession. DL tried to buy AA's MIA and DFW hubs, and take away AA's corporate contracts, the last time AA was in Chapter XI. I'm sure there's already a team in DL's planning department, running scenarios of what AA assets DL wants to buy if / when AA files Chapter XI again.
 
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chepos
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:31 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don’t disagree. If we have a deep recession SEA and BOS are at risk. OTOH, we may have a shallow recession.

When I look at their moves, it just seems to be an airline that can't wait to get on with its next exciting project. The latest being Latam. We will see how it works out. They are going to see a lot of cost pressures with their recent moves to improve product. And UA is making a real big play to improve their share of corporate revenues, which is what's been lifting DL recently.


At the risk of going OT, I think in a recession, DL is in much better shape than UA or (especially) AA, because DL has less debt and a superior inflight product.

AA's debt level is so high that they are at serious risk of having to file Chapter XI in the next recession. DL tried to buy AA's MIA and DFW hubs, and take away AA's corporate contracts, the last time AA was in Chapter XI. I'm sure there's already a team in DL's planning department, running scenarios of what AA assets DL wants to buy if / when AA files Chapter XI again.


How exactly do you buy a hub, particularly one the size of DFW? And that is certainly news to me that DFW and MIA were at any point for sale.


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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:53 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don’t disagree. If we have a deep recession SEA and BOS are at risk. OTOH, we may have a shallow recession.

When I look at their moves, it just seems to be an airline that can't wait to get on with its next exciting project. The latest being Latam. We will see how it works out. They are going to see a lot of cost pressures with their recent moves to improve product. And UA is making a real big play to improve their share of corporate revenues, which is what's been lifting DL recently.


At the risk of going OT, I think in a recession, DL is in much better shape than UA or (especially) AA, because DL has less debt and a superior inflight product.

AA's debt level is so high that they are at serious risk of having to file Chapter XI in the next recession. DL tried to buy AA's MIA and DFW hubs, and take away AA's corporate contracts, the last time AA was in Chapter XI. I'm sure there's already a team in DL's planning department, running scenarios of what AA assets DL wants to buy if / when AA files Chapter XI again.


There’s no way DL will try and buy 2 of AA’s Crown Jewels. If I were to guess which assets DL would by from AA, I’d say they would try and buy some of AA’s JFK and BOS ops.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:11 pm

evank516 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
evank516 wrote:

To add, it looks like DL's upgauge to the A220 on SEA-MCI is cancelled.

Looks like they're switching the route to a 737-800 instead, so still a capacity increase compared to the E175 that currently flies it.


Effective when? I don't see it on Delta.com yet.

Still hoping to see upgauges on LGA-MCI as well.


June 8th

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... -area.html

Was discussed in the KC thread, but the increase is due to the Tmobile-Sprint merger

"Alaska used to fly one flight daily to Kansas City operating a smaller regional jet. In the past year, it’s upsized the aircraft to a full-sized jet and added a second daily flight.

“When we look at profitability, it’s a route that has performed very well. The planes are full,” said David Oppenheim, a vice president of sales at Alaska Airlines whose wife is from Kansas City.

Delta Air Lines launched Seattle-to-Kansas City service in June 2018, offering a daily round trip with a regional jet. It’s upsizing to a larger jet in 2020, spokeswoman Liz Savadelis said.

Oppenheim said that corporate trips linked to T-Mobile’s merger with Sprint have been the biggest factor boosting traffic between the cities.

“They’ve announced they’re going to have dual headquarters, and so we’ve obviously talked to them about service,” he said. “When the merger goes through, we’ll potentially even increase service.”
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
evank516
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Re: OAG Changes 12/8/2019: AA Drops COR;EW Builds DUS (?)

Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:30 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
evank516 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Looks like they're switching the route to a 737-800 instead, so still a capacity increase compared to the E175 that currently flies it.


Effective when? I don't see it on Delta.com yet.

Still hoping to see upgauges on LGA-MCI as well.


June 8th

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... -area.html

Was discussed in the KC thread, but the increase is due to the Tmobile-Sprint merger

"Alaska used to fly one flight daily to Kansas City operating a smaller regional jet. In the past year, it’s upsized the aircraft to a full-sized jet and added a second daily flight.

“When we look at profitability, it’s a route that has performed very well. The planes are full,” said David Oppenheim, a vice president of sales at Alaska Airlines whose wife is from Kansas City.

Delta Air Lines launched Seattle-to-Kansas City service in June 2018, offering a daily round trip with a regional jet. It’s upsizing to a larger jet in 2020, spokeswoman Liz Savadelis said.

Oppenheim said that corporate trips linked to T-Mobile’s merger with Sprint have been the biggest factor boosting traffic between the cities.

“They’ve announced they’re going to have dual headquarters, and so we’ve obviously talked to them about service,” he said. “When the merger goes through, we’ll potentially even increase service.”


Thanks for this. This is available on Delta.com.

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