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hpff
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:40 am

The UK govermnent is saying May or June with the social distancing measures, so I’ll be surprised to see them fly to SJC this year.
 
skipness1E
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:10 am

I'd be surprised if more than 50% of the BA 744 fleet ever flew for them again, my feeling is BA will remove the B744 and A380 fleet entirely.
The summer season is lost, factor in the collapse in confidence, the many who have lost their jobs and the sheer nervousness about sitting on a plane with coughing punters for 7 hours as soon as this summer and I think BA won't be flying anything bigger than a B77W and that's a stretch as all those business heavy configurations will be flying mainly empty into the autumn. It's not just going to bounce back as if nothing happened, the whole Western Economy is closing down.

Expect to see the B788 / B789s redeployed to former B744/B777 routes to major markets with frequencies consolidated. Anything marginal will be dropped immediately, the whole business is in survival mode.I don't think it's sunk in yet for a lot of people.
 
Opus99
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:51 am

skipness1E wrote:
I'd be surprised if more than 50% of the BA 744 fleet ever flew for them again, my feeling is BA will remove the B744 and A380 fleet entirely.
The summer season is lost, factor in the collapse in confidence, the many who have lost their jobs and the sheer nervousness about sitting on a plane with coughing punters for 7 hours as soon as this summer and I think BA won't be flying anything bigger than a B77W and that's a stretch as all those business heavy configurations will be flying mainly empty into the autumn. It's not just going to bounce back as if nothing happened, the whole Western Economy is closing down.

Expect to see the B788 / B789s redeployed to former B744/B777 routes to major markets with frequencies consolidated. Anything marginal will be dropped immediately, the whole business is in survival mode.I don't think it's sunk in yet for a lot of people.

Most of this is probably true. I don’t see ALL of the A380 fleet going. Probably maybe half or 2/3rds out the door. The 747s probably about 90% will be out. BA will focus on new jets being the 787/77W/350. In this coronavirus times the 77W has proved itself with regards to its cargo abilities especially for BA. The 779 delay doesn’t seem so bad now given what is going on. Although i think it’s cargo capabilities would have been handy. But we do know that demand will come back, when it will come back we don’t know. But WW has said that from the past when it comes back in many instances you’re unable to service that demand so they’re currently not cancelling any orders that they have coming in
 
chonetsao
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:43 pm

BA is the only few airlines in the world can make A380 work. And BA is the only handful airlines that can make premium heavy aircraft work.

So safe to say that A380 will stay in BA.

However, I think B744 had its days for now.

That being said, I wonder if a B744 turned to combo would work for BA in case of passenger volume drop yet the cargo yield up. BA could convert the B744 into upper deck and space between door 1LR and 2LR into business class or/and premium economy class only flight. If there is one airline in the world could make such concept work, it would be BA.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:15 pm

chonetsao wrote:
BA is the only few airlines in the world can make A380 work. And BA is the only handful airlines that can make premium heavy aircraft work.

So safe to say that A380 will stay in BA.

However, I think B744 had its days for now.

That being said, I wonder if a B744 turned to combo would work for BA in case of passenger volume drop yet the cargo yield up. BA could convert the B744 into upper deck and space between door 1LR and 2LR into business class or/and premium economy class only flight. If there is one airline in the world could make such concept work, it would be BA.

BA last operated a 747 in combi mode about thirty years ago. With the 747 fleet slated for withdrawal by 2024 before the COVID-19 pandemic and a good chance many will be retired earlier now, why would an airline haemorrhaging cash spend money converting them to combis?

I do, however, think the A380s could remain with BA. With suppressed demand when restrictions do ease off they would allow BA to serve the likes of HKG, LAX, SFO and JNB once daily, adding more capacity with a second smaller aircraft if required.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:37 am

chonetsao wrote:
BA is the only few airlines in the world can make A380 work. And BA is the only handful airlines that can make premium heavy aircraft work.

So safe to say that A380 will stay in BA.

"Can" is not the equivalent of "optimal," and airlines are in survival mode.

...thus nothing is "safe to say" at this point.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4756
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:43 am

Turning the 744 into a combi is not a bad idea. I agree this summer will be horrible for passengers but cargo is there.
 
Opus99
Posts: 978
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:01 am

LAX772LR wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
BA is the only few airlines in the world can make A380 work. And BA is the only handful airlines that can make premium heavy aircraft work.

So safe to say that A380 will stay in BA.

"Can" is not the equivalent of "optimal," and airlines are in survival mode.

...thus nothing is "safe to say" at this point.

I agree with this. This issue is quite dire for the aviation industry and. I certainly won't be surprised if it pushes out a considerable amount of the 380 fleet.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7500
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:05 am

Opus99 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
BA is the only few airlines in the world can make A380 work. And BA is the only handful airlines that can make premium heavy aircraft work.

So safe to say that A380 will stay in BA.

"Can" is not the equivalent of "optimal," and airlines are in survival mode.

...thus nothing is "safe to say" at this point.

I agree with this. This issue is quite dire for the aviation industry and. I certainly won't be surprised if it pushes out a considerable amount of the 380 fleet.


What do you call a considerable number? BA only have 12 A380s, how few is to few to operate profitably? For an airline the size of BA and operating out of an airport like LHR the A380 should still have a roll on a few of the busiest routes.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:12 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
BA only have 12 A380s, how few is to few to operate profitably? For an airline the size of BA and operating out of an airport like LHR the A380 should still have a roll on a few of the busiest routes.

In theory, you should be able to say that about any longhaul airline hubbed in a slot-constrained airport; but in practice, that doesn't really play out.

VS ran far away from its A380 orders after Bermuda II was dissolved; and AM, hubbed in an airport that's arguably even more constrained than LHR, never saw a need for them.

EK, and to a far lesser extent QF, were the only two that ever really utilized the A380 to that effect.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
chonetsao
Posts: 648
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:47 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
"Can" is not the equivalent of "optimal," and airlines are in survival mode.

...thus nothing is "safe to say" at this point.

I agree with this. This issue is quite dire for the aviation industry and. I certainly won't be surprised if it pushes out a considerable amount of the 380 fleet.


What do you call a considerable number? BA only have 12 A380s, how few is to few to operate profitably? For an airline the size of BA and operating out of an airport like LHR the A380 should still have a roll on a few of the busiest routes.


I agree with you. I think some people here are blind on future prospects, but did not do any research on how many A380 BA has and how many routes BA can use the A380.
 
Opus99
Posts: 978
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:25 am

chonetsao wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I agree with this. This issue is quite dire for the aviation industry and. I certainly won't be surprised if it pushes out a considerable amount of the 380 fleet.


What do you call a considerable number? BA only have 12 A380s, how few is to few to operate profitably? For an airline the size of BA and operating out of an airport like LHR the A380 should still have a roll on a few of the busiest routes.


I agree with you. I think some people here are blind on future prospects, but did not do any research on how many A380 BA has and how many routes BA can use the A380.

Everybody knows they have 12. A considerable amount will be maybe half for the remainder to follow soon after or maybe all at once? Don’t know how profitable that is but maybe to save the cost on early retirement of ALL for now they’re still quite young. And I think people are also underestimating the IMPACT of covid 19. Everybody knows that there are about 4 routes that the A380 serves all year round. LAX SIN HKG and JNB. Everything else is seasonal and we know that. Now long haul travel is going to take A WHILE to get back to pre covid levels making those planes EXTRA hard to fill up and everybody knows how bad an empty a380 is. And forget operationally or which plane can fill up what? What are airlines going to learn from this? The A380 is useless in a period like this. Take for example the A35K or 77W that are still working making money out of cargo. Airlines are going to realise the importance of that again so in the instance they find themselves in situations like this they still have aircrafts that can operate and make some money. The reality is, to act like covid 19 is not going to push the A380 out of BA is a bit naive to be honest no matter how well they can fill it up it good times. This is a global dip in air travel that will take TIME to get back. People are acting like when the travel bans are lifted people are just going to Walts back onto planes like nothing happened. And again they have a fleet of 12. Not 120, this isn’t Emirates. Let’s be realistic.
 
CURQ400
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:27 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Turning the 744 into a combi is not a bad idea. I agree this summer will be horrible for passengers but cargo is there.


It’s not a bad idea, it’s a terrible idea.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 648
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:02 am

Opus99 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

What do you call a considerable number? BA only have 12 A380s, how few is to few to operate profitably? For an airline the size of BA and operating out of an airport like LHR the A380 should still have a roll on a few of the busiest routes.


I agree with you. I think some people here are blind on future prospects, but did not do any research on how many A380 BA has and how many routes BA can use the A380.

Everybody knows they have 12. A considerable amount will be maybe half for the remainder to follow soon after or maybe all at once? Don’t know how profitable that is but maybe to save the cost on early retirement of ALL for now they’re still quite young. And I think people are also underestimating the IMPACT of covid 19. Everybody knows that there are about 4 routes that the A380 serves all year round. LAX SIN HKG and JNB. Everything else is seasonal and we know that. Now long haul travel is going to take A WHILE to get back to pre covid levels making those planes EXTRA hard to fill up and everybody knows how bad an empty a380 is. And forget operationally or which plane can fill up what? What are airlines going to learn from this? The A380 is useless in a period like this. Take for example the A35K or 77W that are still working making money out of cargo. Airlines are going to realise the importance of that again so in the instance they find themselves in situations like this they still have aircrafts that can operate and make some money. The reality is, to act like covid 19 is not going to push the A380 out of BA is a bit naive to be honest no matter how well they can fill it up it good times. This is a global dip in air travel that will take TIME to get back. People are acting like when the travel bans are lifted people are just going to Walts back onto planes like nothing happened. And again they have a fleet of 12. Not 120, this isn’t Emirates. Let’s be realistic.


No, not everyone knows the facts you have quoted. You can't assume everyone understands the implications.

Plus, if you have done your research, did you calculate how many A380 BA needs to be able to operate SIN, HKG, JNB and LAX daily year round? Not to mention MIA could be A380 if BA starts to retire its B744s.

And, finally, please do not forget stations like DXB could sustain the A380 year round too.
 
Andy33
Posts: 2567
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:21 am

CURQ400 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Turning the 744 into a combi is not a bad idea. I agree this summer will be horrible for passengers but cargo is there.


It’s not a bad idea, it’s a terrible idea.

I'd go further, it is an absolutely pointless idea!
When was the last time a 744 was converted from all-pax to combi configuration? Indeed, has it ever been done, or were the combi planes built that way from new?
If it has been done, are there parts still in stock anywhere to do more, or do they have to be manufactured from scratch?
How long will it take to do the conversion once parts are available?
How long will it take to certify the modified planes (given that the certifying authorities for UK-registry planes are all in lockdown)?
I really don't think this is possible for summer!
 
Opus99
Posts: 978
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:35 am

chonetsao wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

I agree with you. I think some people here are blind on future prospects, but did not do any research on how many A380 BA has and how many routes BA can use the A380.

Everybody knows they have 12. A considerable amount will be maybe half for the remainder to follow soon after or maybe all at once? Don’t know how profitable that is but maybe to save the cost on early retirement of ALL for now they’re still quite young. And I think people are also underestimating the IMPACT of covid 19. Everybody knows that there are about 4 routes that the A380 serves all year round. LAX SIN HKG and JNB. Everything else is seasonal and we know that. Now long haul travel is going to take A WHILE to get back to pre covid levels making those planes EXTRA hard to fill up and everybody knows how bad an empty a380 is. And forget operationally or which plane can fill up what? What are airlines going to learn from this? The A380 is useless in a period like this. Take for example the A35K or 77W that are still working making money out of cargo. Airlines are going to realise the importance of that again so in the instance they find themselves in situations like this they still have aircrafts that can operate and make some money. The reality is, to act like covid 19 is not going to push the A380 out of BA is a bit naive to be honest no matter how well they can fill it up it good times. This is a global dip in air travel that will take TIME to get back. People are acting like when the travel bans are lifted people are just going to Walts back onto planes like nothing happened. And again they have a fleet of 12. Not 120, this isn’t Emirates. Let’s be realistic.


No, not everyone knows the facts you have quoted. You can't assume everyone understands the implications.

Plus, if you have done your research, did you calculate how many A380 BA needs to be able to operate SIN, HKG, JNB and LAX daily year round? Not to mention MIA could be A380 if BA starts to retire its B744s.

Fair enough on that. But When the 779s are coming in? I don’t know if the 380 can also sustain its place within BA alongside the coronavirus impact, though demand would have come back significantly by 2022. Although it operates MIA seasonally. Can’t remember if it’s the winter or summer schedule. And with regards to how many they need to operate those all year round it’s probably not 12. But let’s assume it is. Following this crisis, who knows how long it will take before demand will come back to the levels where they can even operate the A380 year round again. This shock isn’t 9/11 or 2008. It’s much worse
 
BA777FO
Posts: 577
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:32 pm

There's currently a supplementary bid for A380 and B747 pilots, which is outside of the annual bid window for fleet changes. 1 747 has already been retired early, there may be more. That the A380 has a supplementary bid too would suggest some may leave the fleet.

BA is hoping that there may be some airline failures among their competitors and that they can backfill some of that capacity so there will still be a role for the A380 and 747. The A380 will probably be used to some extent to HKG, SIN, JNB and a couple of others for some time to come. It might not be a V-shaped recovery but BA is well placed to take advantage of any recovery; there's a low cost base with cheap oil, making the 747 and A380 relatively cheap to operate, Heathrow is still slot constrained and there's scope for flexing capacity.

Back on topic to San Jose, SJC, in May, the 777 bidpack has SJC so the 747 will have to wait a little longer, if the provisional May program is even flown.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 648
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:20 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Fair enough on that. But When the 779s are coming in? I don’t know if the 380 can also sustain its place within BA alongside the coronavirus impact, though demand would have come back significantly by 2022. Although it operates MIA seasonally. Can’t remember if it’s the winter or summer schedule. And with regards to how many they need to operate those all year round it’s probably not 12. But let’s assume it is. Following this crisis, who knows how long it will take before demand will come back to the levels where they can even operate the A380 year round again. This shock isn’t 9/11 or 2008. It’s much worse


Can't remember when B779 would arrive. Possible 2022-2023?

MIA I think is winter A380. But I am not sure now. Someone else would know. Currently in September it shows MIA twice daily B744.

With HKG, SIN, JNB, MIA, LAX and DXB daily A380 rotation, BA needs about 9-10 frames depends on schedule for maintenance and stand-by aircraft requirement. That leave 2 frames to do ad hoc US East coast run. However, considering the fleet age and more heavy maintenance are due, it is possible that BA is just about utilise the whole fleet of 12 A380s in peak times with cities like ORD and PHL throw in.

I agree the 2020 Winter may see the reduction of the need for A380 fleet. But I feel BA still needs the A380 fleet in order to 1, maintain trunk routes schedule and capacity and 2, early reduction of B744 fleet.

Thus my argument that A380 will be kept in BA even with reduction of flying hours and fleet utilisation and the possible earlier retirement of B744 fleet.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
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Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:18 pm

chonetsao wrote:
I agree with you. I think some people here are blind on future prospects, but did not do any research on how many A380 BA has and how many routes BA can use the A380.

As prior stated, just because they CAN use the A380 on a given route, doesn't mean that's the BEST use for them.... especially at a time when the market has been devastated in a way we've never seen before.

That, and even though Airbus has pledged to support the A380; the cost of doing so won't be cheap for clientele, as fewer and fewer of them operate the type.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Opus99
Posts: 978
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: BA Schedules 744 for SJC-LHR in Summer 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:25 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Fair enough on that. But When the 779s are coming in? I don’t know if the 380 can also sustain its place within BA alongside the coronavirus impact, though demand would have come back significantly by 2022. Although it operates MIA seasonally. Can’t remember if it’s the winter or summer schedule. And with regards to how many they need to operate those all year round it’s probably not 12. But let’s assume it is. Following this crisis, who knows how long it will take before demand will come back to the levels where they can even operate the A380 year round again. This shock isn’t 9/11 or 2008. It’s much worse


Can't remember when B779 would arrive. Possible 2022-2023?

MIA I think is winter A380. But I am not sure now. Someone else would know. Currently in September it shows MIA twice daily B744.

With HKG, SIN, JNB, MIA, LAX and DXB daily A380 rotation, BA needs about 9-10 frames depends on schedule for maintenance and stand-by aircraft requirement. That leave 2 frames to do ad hoc US East coast run. However, considering the fleet age and more heavy maintenance are due, it is possible that BA is just about utilise the whole fleet of 12 A380s in peak times with cities like ORD and PHL throw in.

I agree the 2020 Winter may see the reduction of the need for A380 fleet. But I feel BA still needs the A380 fleet in order to 1, maintain trunk routes schedule and capacity and 2, early reduction of B744 fleet.

Thus my argument that A380 will be kept in BA even with reduction of flying hours and fleet utilisation and the possible earlier retirement of B744 fleet.

I can agree that they will be kept but the number will be reduced and IF the 777X performs as Boeing says it should than I believe that it may go even further to replace the A380. But let’s see what happens

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