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PacoMartin
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Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:56 am

For May 2019 transatlantic flights (UA, DL, AA)
So 45.5% were up to distance group #8 or less than 4000 statute miles (3476 nautical miles)
So 68.7% were up to distance group #9 or less than 4500 statute miles (3910 nautical miles)
So 84.7% were up to distance group #10 or less than 5000 statute miles (4345 nautical miles)

So we have a raw potential of 85% of TATL flights on the A321XLR. I doubt that we will see a third of that amount because of the desire to fly larger jets.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:07 am

Thanks for starting this thread.

Here is your complete post from the orders-thread

PacoMartin wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
What is the specific range requirement for TATL? Because at full capacity of maximum 244 pax capacity, the range of the A321XLR drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers. Which is well in reach of quite a lot TATL routes.


Summary for US airlines May 2019
Flghts Seats TransATL avg
4,864 1,198,382 Delta Air Lines Inc. 246
4,609 1,126,928 United Air Lines Inc. 245
3,775 969,640 American Airlines Inc. 257
13,248 3,294,950 Total 249

Organized by DG (Distance Group) where the groups are in multiples of 500 miles (i.e. DG=9 means 4001 to 4500 statute miles)

DG UA DL AA
3 2 -- --
6 2 143 --
7 825 659 542
8 1438 1283 1139
9 904 1336 827
10 387 894 842
11 488 328 363
12 439 159 62
15 62 -- --
16 62 -- --
17 -- 62 --
13,248 total flights

Examples of really long flights are SFO to TLV on United, and ATL to JNB on Delta.

DG - percentage of flights up to distance group
7 16.4%
8 45.5%
9 68.7%
10 84.7%
11 93.6%
12 98.6%

transatlantic flights
So 45.5% were up to distance group #8 or less than 4000 statute miles (3476 nautical miles)
So 68.7% were up to distance group #9 or less than 4500 statute miles (3910 nautical miles)
So 84.7% were up to distance group #10 or less than 5000 statute miles (4345 nautical miles)


Talking about the potential of the XLR, I wonder if (or better when) LH will convert some of its A321neo-orders into XLR's...
 
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OA940
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:49 am

There's a lot of potential for it, obviously as a 757 replacement, but keep in mind it's also much more fuel efficient, and has commonality with a huge part of the Airbus lineup, not to mention its an A320 variant. That would allow current A320 family operators to convert/order some XLRs for long-haul routes much less reluctantly than they would order a completely different aircraft. Also it could open a lot more point to point flights, and probably will.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
JonesNL
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:31 am

85% coverage is quite significant. It explains the popularity quite a lot. The XLR gives airlines an low risk opportunity to play with frequency based on seasonal or trending behavior of passengers on long thick routes. This plane might be smartest trick Airbus has pulled in the last couple of decades. If you extrapolate the recent orders one can easily calculate them selling 2-3000 of this variant.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:35 am

N14AZ wrote:
Thanks for starting this thread.

Here is your complete post from the orders-thread

PacoMartin wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
What is the specific range requirement for TATL? Because at full capacity of maximum 244 pax capacity, the range of the A321XLR drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers. Which is well in reach of quite a lot TATL routes.


Summary for US airlines May 2019
Flghts Seats TransATL avg
4,864 1,198,382 Delta Air Lines Inc. 246
4,609 1,126,928 United Air Lines Inc. 245
3,775 969,640 American Airlines Inc. 257
13,248 3,294,950 Total 249

Organized by DG (Distance Group) where the groups are in multiples of 500 miles (i.e. DG=9 means 4001 to 4500 statute miles)

DG UA DL AA
3 2 -- --
6 2 143 --
7 825 659 542
8 1438 1283 1139
9 904 1336 827
10 387 894 842
11 488 328 363
12 439 159 62
15 62 -- --
16 62 -- --
17 -- 62 --
13,248 total flights

Examples of really long flights are SFO to TLV on United, and ATL to JNB on Delta.

DG - percentage of flights up to distance group
7 16.4%
8 45.5%
9 68.7%
10 84.7%
11 93.6%
12 98.6%

transatlantic flights
So 45.5% were up to distance group #8 or less than 4000 statute miles (3476 nautical miles)
So 68.7% were up to distance group #9 or less than 4500 statute miles (3910 nautical miles)
So 84.7% were up to distance group #10 or less than 5000 statute miles (4345 nautical miles)


Talking about the potential of the XLR, I wonder if (or better when) LH will convert some of its A321neo-orders into XLR's...


It is an interesting option for Edelwings, allowing direct flights from secondary cities.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:44 am

It could be the plane which makes longer haul low cost airlines viable as no one seems to have cracked that on other available frames just yet.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:46 am

seahawk wrote:
It is an interesting option for Edelwings, allowing direct flights from secondary cities.

??? :eyepopping:

Edelweiss Air or Eurowings?
Or both
Or are they merging and this will be the new name? :scratchchin:

Just kidding, you are referring to Edelweiss, correct?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:53 am

It is a semi-offical working title for the newly structured Eurowings long haul brand. (aka Project Purple Moon in the press)
 
YIMBY
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:59 pm

I don't believe it can do 4345 (isocurvature) nautical miles westwards in winter, not even close, unless limited load.
 
RalXWB
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:07 pm

Can you support your belief with evidence or facts?
 
airzona11
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:22 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
For May 2019 transatlantic flights (UA, DL, AA)
So 45.5% were up to distance group #8 or less than 4000 statute miles (3476 nautical miles)
So 68.7% were up to distance group #9 or less than 4500 statute miles (3910 nautical miles)
So 84.7% were up to distance group #10 or less than 5000 statute miles (4345 nautical miles)

So we have a raw potential of 85% of TATL flights on the A321XLR. I doubt that we will see a third of that amount because of the desire to fly larger jets.


It is not the desire, it is the economics. You could do the same for the CRJs for example for routes up to 3 hours, etc.

What % of Group 8/9/10 flights are flown by 757s today for UA DL AA?
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:24 pm

RalXWB wrote:
Can you support your belief with evidence or facts?

It's a bit hard to deliver facts on a paper plane. Everything is still based on assumptions and performance promises, both positive and negative outlooks for the XLR.

Many airlines do have the confidence that it will perform as promised by Airbus though,,,

Looking at the strong sales it's success might become the biggest issue for the XLR, If all these new and established airlines suddenly start for example new transatlantic routes the competition might result in such low prices that even with the XLR it will become impossible to compete profitably in this market.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:24 pm

This might be useful for that:

Image
Time taken to fly the optimum route versus route extension (route distance minus great circle distance) for (a) eastbound and (b) westbound flights between New York JFK airport and London Heathrow airport. Data are plotted for three winters: 2004–2005 (diamonds), 2008–2009 (crosses) and 2009–2010 (triangles). The time taken to fly the great circle distance in still air is shown by the dashed line.


(From https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/met.1291 )

So you can easily see that your gonna need at least an extra 400km range reserve to translate from still air to real world. Given the compensation risk to airlines of overbooking - and if they have no widebody alternate flights they can rebook folks onto easily - then they may want up to 800km of range reserve.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:38 pm

seahawk wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Thanks for starting this thread.

Here is your complete post from the orders-thread

PacoMartin wrote:

Summary for US airlines May 2019
Flghts Seats TransATL avg
4,864 1,198,382 Delta Air Lines Inc. 246
4,609 1,126,928 United Air Lines Inc. 245
3,775 969,640 American Airlines Inc. 257
13,248 3,294,950 Total 249

Organized by DG (Distance Group) where the groups are in multiples of 500 miles (i.e. DG=9 means 4001 to 4500 statute miles)

DG UA DL AA
3 2 -- --
6 2 143 --
7 825 659 542
8 1438 1283 1139
9 904 1336 827
10 387 894 842
11 488 328 363
12 439 159 62
15 62 -- --
16 62 -- --
17 -- 62 --
13,248 total flights

Examples of really long flights are SFO to TLV on United, and ATL to JNB on Delta.

DG - percentage of flights up to distance group
7 16.4%
8 45.5%
9 68.7%
10 84.7%
11 93.6%
12 98.6%

transatlantic flights
So 45.5% were up to distance group #8 or less than 4000 statute miles (3476 nautical miles)
So 68.7% were up to distance group #9 or less than 4500 statute miles (3910 nautical miles)
So 84.7% were up to distance group #10 or less than 5000 statute miles (4345 nautical miles)


Talking about the potential of the XLR, I wonder if (or better when) LH will convert some of its A321neo-orders into XLR's...


It is an interesting option for Edelwings, allowing direct flights from secondary cities.


Edelweiss like the flower in the alps
 
tommy1808
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:42 pm

YIMBY wrote:
I don't believe it can do 4345 (isocurvature) nautical miles westwards in winter, not even close, unless limited load.


Keep in mind that the LR already did fly 4700nm air distance with simulated long haul cabin/load and the XLR adds more than an hour range on top ~5200nm air distance..that's 20% for head winds.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Amiga500
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:44 pm

The XLR flies 4700nm - the LR was something like 4200 nm. Airbus PR here

What the payload is for these ranges is unclear. Anyone offer guidance on that?


This says:

The A321XLR is extending the single-aisle jetliner offer as Airbus’ next evolutionary step for the A321neo Family, with a service entry planned in 2023. It will offer even more range – up to 4,700 nm (8,700 km) – in a comfortable 2-class layout, thanks to an increased maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) of 101 tonnes, which enables the jetliner to be fitted with a permanent Rear Centre Tank (carrying 12,900 litres of fuel) and an optional forward Additional Centre Tank.


What is a "comfortable 2-class layout"?
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:52 pm

airzona11 wrote:
What % of Group 8/9/10 flights are flown by 757s today for UA DL AA?


Let's keep in mind that the longest flight in the world on a B752 is Iceland to San Francisco which is 3,641 nm or 4,200 statute miles.
Foreign carriers tend to push the envelope more than domestic ones.

Distance Group- % flights - % seats
#6 85.9% 86.1%
#7 31.8% 25.3%
#8 9.8% 6.8%
#9 none
#10 none

I agree that distance group #10 won't be fully populated with an A321XLR because of winter weather.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:52 pm

With no competing aircraft in sight the A321XLR is going to make Airbus a lot of money, they can definitely charge a premium since it’s currently in a class of its own. We have to remember, there is a huge market for this aircraft in a lot of places other than TATL.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:06 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
So you can easily see that your gonna need at least an extra 400km range reserve to translate from still air to real world. Given the compensation risk to airlines of overbooking - and if they have no widebody alternate flights they can rebook folks onto easily - then they may want up to 800km of range reserve.


That wouldn't be that bad. If the still air range is 4700 nm = 5409 statute miles, then we subtract 800 km = 497 statute miles of reserve range. We still get over 80% of current TATL flights.

We would also be hoping to increase frequency to Edinburgh, Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham, Cork, and possibly some airports like Lisbon, Malaga, Burgundy, Nice, etc.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:21 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
We have to remember, there is a huge market for this aircraft in a lot of places other than TATL.


US carriers to Latin America by distance group (flights, seats, average number of seats per flight)
1 4,122 443,286 108
2 11,329 1,437,486 127
3 13,013 1,984,694 153
4 8,877 1,399,752 158
5 2,195 354,652 162
6 461 79,234 172
7 254 49,419 195
8 122 20,880 171
9 434 113,415 261
10 712 167,873 236
11 430 111,726 260
13 62 17,608 284

While not as large as TATL, there is a big increase at roughly 5000 miles to the major airports of the Southern Cone
 
Pendennis
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:24 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
So you can easily see that your gonna need at least an extra 400km range reserve to translate from still air to real world. Given the compensation risk to airlines of overbooking - and if they have no widebody alternate flights they can rebook folks onto easily - then they may want up to 800km of range reserve.


That wouldn't be that bad. If the still air range is 4700 nm = 5409 statute miles, then we subtract 800 km = 497 statute miles of reserve range. We still get over 80% of current TATL flights.

We would also be hoping to increase frequency to Edinburgh, Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham, Cork, and possibly some airports like Lisbon, Malaga, Burgundy, Nice, etc.


Could we keep to one set of units; you use nm & st m in the first comparison and km and st m in the second. In the aviation world the two units of distance generally used are nm and km, could we stick with those.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:32 pm

naut. mi / km average flight
3616.5 / 6698 Trans Atlantic US carriers
4404.9 / 8158 Trans Pacific US carriers

So even with winter factored in the still air range of the XLR (4700 nm) covers the average flight range of TATL

Pendennis wrote:
Could we keep to one set of units; you use nm & st m in the first comparison and km and st m in the second. In the aviation world the two units of distance generally used are nm and km, could we stick with those.


BTS data uses statute miles. I'll do my best, but the percentage data for "Distance Groups" is from BTS database.

Code,Description
"1","Less Than 500 Miles"
"2","500-999 Miles"
"3","1000-1499 Miles"
"4","1500-1999 Miles"
"5","2000-2499 Miles"
"6","2500-2999 Miles"
"7","3000-3499 Miles"
"8","3500-3999 Miles"
"9","4000-4499 Miles"
"10","4500-4999 Miles"
"11","5000-5499 Miles"
"12","5500-5999 Miles"
"13","6000-6499 Miles"
"14","6500-6999 Miles"
"15","7000-7499 Miles"
"16","7500-7999 Miles"
"17","8000-8499 Miles"
"18","8500-8999 Miles"
"19","9000-9499 Miles"
"20","9500-9999 Miles"
"21","10000-10499 Miles"
"22","10500-10999 Miles"
"23","11000-11499 Miles"
"24","11500-11999 Miles"
"25","12000 Miles and Greater"
Last edited by PacoMartin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:46 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
For May 2019 transatlantic flights (UA, DL, AA)
So we have a raw potential of 85% of TATL flights on the A321XLR. I doubt that we will see a third of that amount because of the desire to fly larger jets.

I bet you are absolutely correct, in terms of replacement aircraft on current routes, but the real potential of the XLR is opening new city pairs.

Just like the 787 continues to "unlock" all sorts of long range city pairs, the real magic of the XLR will be opening new medium distance city pairs.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:54 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
The XLR flies 4700nm - the LR was something like 4200 nm.


Yes, but the LR did, in the real world, fly 4700nm

What the payload is for these ranges is unclear. Anyone offer guidance on that?


206 pax, for airbus that means 19.6t. The XLR has 4t more TOW, 800kg less in ACTs, plus x (let's say 400kg) for strengthening, and 3t more fuel... ~21t.

What is a "comfortable 2-class layout"?


Since the XLR is going to be fuel volume limited for all but ULCC density single class configurations it will mean whatever 2-Class cabin the airline wants to put in, 150 or 180 seats won't make a meaningful difference for range.

Something like the A321T config will be able to fly some extra 400nm with an extra ACT. Transpac narrow body... http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Sfo-nrt&R= ... 78&SU=mach

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Northpole
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:14 pm

I am surprised of the fact that SAS - Scandinavian Airlines - within the next few years will have at least 80x A320 NEO:s and has chosen the A350 ( 8 deliveries ) and the A330 for their longhaul routes. The A340:s will leave when the A350:s are being delivered. The XLR could have been an option for SAS in my mind.... Thoughts ?
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:35 pm

I heard on another thread that the XLR will have a different/modified wing thane the other 321neo variants. How true is this? How different/modified will it be, if true?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
ewt340
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:02 pm

Latin American expansions to the US would probably gonna be the big thing. The recent example is SKY from Chile. The other one is obviously TATL.

In terms of asian market, it wouldn't be as big as people thought. The standard neo/max would still dominates majority of the orders.
 
RalXWB
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:02 pm

Northpole wrote:
I am surprised of the fact that SAS - Scandinavian Airlines - within the next few years will have at least 80x A320 NEO:s and has chosen the A350 ( 8 deliveries ) and the A330 for their longhaul routes. The A340:s will leave when the A350:s are being delivered. The XLR could have been an option for SAS in my mind.... Thoughts ?


They ordered a couple of LRs in January....
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:11 pm

Northpole wrote:
I am surprised of the fact that SAS - Scandinavian Airlines - within the next few years will have at least 80x A320 NEO:s and has chosen the A350 ( 8 deliveries ) and the A330 for their longhaul routes. The A340:s will leave when the A350:s are being delivered. The XLR could have been an option for SAS in my mind.... Thoughts ?


They have 3 x A321LR coming from a leasing company. The first one will fly CPH-BOS. They were ordered before the XLR launched. I think they're dipping their toes in the water, and if the temperature is right they'll dive right in.

I agree that the A321XLR could have a lot of potential for SAS.

Someone mentioned in another thread that the A321XLR will likely become the de facto standard A321neo in the mid 2020s, and that everyone that doesn't need the extra range will get derated versions.
 
Northpole
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:42 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Northpole wrote:
I am surprised of the fact that SAS - Scandinavian Airlines - within the next few years will have at least 80x A320 NEO:s and has chosen the A350 ( 8 deliveries ) and the A330 for their longhaul routes. The A340:s will leave when the A350:s are being delivered. The XLR could have been an option for SAS in my mind.... Thoughts ?


They have 3 x A321LR coming from a leasing company. The first one will fly CPH-BOS. They were ordered before the XLR launched. I think they're dipping their toes in the water, and if the temperature is right they'll dive right in.

I agree that the A321XLR could have a lot of potential for SAS.

Someone mentioned in another thread that the A321XLR will likely become the de facto standard A321neo in the mid 2020s, and that everyone that doesn't need the extra range will get derated versions.


Interesting -thanks ! I like the passus : " dipping their toes in the water " :)
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:58 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
Just like the 787 continues to "unlock" all sorts of long range city pairs, the real magic of the XLR will be opening new medium distance city pairs.


I believe the US has 8 preclearance facilities in Canada and 2 in Ireland (Shannon and Dublin). I hope they get installed in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester, Birmingham, Cork and Belfast. Possibly one in Stansted or Luton. I don't think there is enough room or the possibility of putting one in Heathrow or Gatwick.

That would greatly encourage NB travel between the US and to places other than London

Also Possibities
Nice NCE
Saint Exupéry Lyon LYS
Mérignac Bordeaux BOD
Barcelona–El Prat
Málaga–Costa Del Sol
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:59 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
I heard on another thread that the XLR will have a different/modified wing thane the other 321neo variants. How true is this? How different/modified will it be, if true?


At least new flaps compared to the standard A321neo. I do not thing that Airbus does change other measurements, but we will still see some aerodynamic work.
 
tphuang
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:09 pm

Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT. The difference here is just one less passenger. Could that do TATL from NYC safely? And how far can it go on a north/south route? One without the range limitations from northatlantic wind.
 
tomcat
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:00 pm

One way to refine estimate of the potential of the XLR is to sort its potential routes between "cargo heavy" and "limited cargo", the latter ones being more relevant for the XLR than for the widebodies. On the cargo heavy routes, the XLR would at best compliment the widebody existing services, allowing the airlines to fine tune the passenger/cargo capacity ratio on these routes.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:00 pm

tphuang wrote:
Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT. The difference here is just one less passenger. Could that do TATL from NYC safely? And how far can it go on a north/south route? One without the range limitations from northatlantic wind.


There is a featured map on gcmap shown on 18 June 2019: Airbus A321XL and United's Newark 757-200s that I believe answers your question better than I can.
http://www.gcmap.com/featured/20190618

---------------------------------------
I broke down the flights in May 2019 to LHR by airline by number of flights, average number of seats per flight, and jet type

United Air Lines Inc. - 7 aircraft types in LHR
31 169 Boeing 757-200
212 206 Boeing 767-300/300ER
59 219 B787-800 Dreamliner
36 240 Boeing 767-400/ER
64 252 B787-900 Dreamliner
93 271 Boeing 777-200ER/200LR/233LR
31 350 Boeing 777-300/300ER/333ER
American Airlines Inc. - 6 aircraft types in LHR
57 234 B787-800 Dreamliner
9 242 Airbus Industrie A330-200
62 285 B787-900 Dreamliner
112 286 Airbus Industrie A330-300
216 272 Boeing 777-200ER/200LR/233LR
184 304 Boeing 777-300/300ER/333ER
Delta Air Lines Inc. - 3 aircraft types in LHR
112 223 Boeing 767-300/300ER
151 233 Airbus Industrie A330-200
35 293 Airbus Industrie A330-300


I think one of the questions that will arise is can airlines fly to a crowded airport like LHR with the single aisle A321XLR. The above table gives us a baseline of how many current routes are flying intp LHR with 235 seats or less.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:31 am

tphuang wrote:
Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT. The difference here is just one less passenger. Could that do TATL from NYC safely? And how far can it go on a north/south route? One without the range limitations from northatlantic wind.


Primera Air used to run 3N1 from MAD-BOS with 200 seats before they folded last summer.
 
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flee
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:51 am

TWA772LR wrote:
I heard on another thread that the XLR will have a different/modified wing thane the other 321neo variants. How true is this? How different/modified will it be, if true?

The flaps will be modified - currently A321 flaps are double slotted. They will be replaced with single piece flaps - I think it is probably to increase wing area a bit more.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:06 am

tphuang wrote:
Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT.


Rule of thumb: 400nm per ACT.
Passengers on board don't really matter, it runs out of fuel volume before running out of floor space, even with the ~4 ACT worth XLR for all but really dense configurations.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
astuteman
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:22 am

flee wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I heard on another thread that the XLR will have a different/modified wing thane the other 321neo variants. How true is this? How different/modified will it be, if true?

The flaps will be modified - currently A321 flaps are double slotted. They will be replaced with single piece flaps - I think it is probably to increase wing area a bit more.


Airbus is currently debating whether to make the changes common across the family in 2023 when the XLR debuts.
Bear in mind the rest already have single slotted flaps

This article

https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis/a ... ?adredir=1

explains that the move to a simpler, cheaper flap system was actually prompted by the extra performance of the sharklet.
It also saves weight

Rgds
 
YIMBY
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:32 am

Amiga500 wrote:
This might be useful for that:

Image
Time taken to fly the optimum route versus route extension (route distance minus great circle distance) for (a) eastbound and (b) westbound flights between New York JFK airport and London Heathrow airport. Data are plotted for three winters: 2004–2005 (diamonds), 2008–2009 (crosses) and 2009–2010 (triangles). The time taken to fly the great circle distance in still air is shown by the dashed line.


(From https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/met.1291 )

So you can easily see that your gonna need at least an extra 400km range reserve to translate from still air to real world. Given the compensation risk to airlines of overbooking - and if they have no widebody alternate flights they can rebook folks onto easily - then they may want up to 800km of range reserve.


Very good picture that explains a lot.

This is for LHR-JFK which is below 3000 nm. The quoted 4345 nm (7800 km) is equal to JFK-IST and close to distances FRA-YVR or LHR-AUS, so the desired weather reserve is also larger, like 1200 km (15 %). Actual reserve depends, of course, what risk of refuelling they will take. A fuel stop not only leads to rebooking of some connecting flights but may also spoil the aircraft utilization. If these are accounted for in the time table, there is less problem. These distances, however, are typically operated at 24h rotation (10 h flight times), and while a wind delay may be recovered in the return flight, a fuel stop may not.

It is also to be noted that the actual airways allowed or assigned by authorities or chosen by pilots are far from straight, particularly for continental parts, and may be defined to avoid congested airspace, military regions, mountains, closed or overpriced ATC, otherwise suspected areas, or just for old bureaucratic reasons. This is particularly relevant in many parts of Asia and Europe.

Legal reserves for alternative airports vary depending on the route - for most TATL destinations there are plenty of opportunities before the final destinations, except some southern routes.

Anyway, JFK to all western Europe is well within a very realistic 4000 nm, as well as North-East US and most of Canada from CPH, for example. This is the window where pp flights between second tier airports or higher frequency from hubs are more relevant than for >9 h flights.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:43 am

astuteman wrote:
flee wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I heard on another thread that the XLR will have a different/modified wing thane the other 321neo variants. How true is this? How different/modified will it be, if true?

The flaps will be modified - currently A321 flaps are double slotted. They will be replaced with single piece flaps - I think it is probably to increase wing area a bit more.


Airbus is currently debating whether to make the changes common across the family in 2023 when the XLR debuts.
Bear in mind the rest already have single slotted flaps

This article

https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis/a ... ?adredir=1

explains that the move to a simpler, cheaper flap system was actually prompted by the extra performance of the sharklet.
It also saves weight

Rgds


Airbus expects the new single slotted flaps, not the same design as on the rest of the family, be more effective than the double ones.
 
astuteman
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:49 am

mjoelnir wrote:
astuteman wrote:
flee wrote:
The flaps will be modified - currently A321 flaps are double slotted. They will be replaced with single piece flaps - I think it is probably to increase wing area a bit more.


Airbus is currently debating whether to make the changes common across the family in 2023 when the XLR debuts.
Bear in mind the rest already have single slotted flaps

This article

https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis/a ... ?adredir=1

explains that the move to a simpler, cheaper flap system was actually prompted by the extra performance of the sharklet.
It also saves weight

Rgds


Airbus expects the new single slotted flaps, not the same design as on the rest of the family, be more effective than the double ones.


Indeed they do. Which is why, along with commonality, I suspect they will ultimately morph them across the fleet.
An A320 NEO with a high lift flap system more effective than the double-slotted one currently on the A321NEO.
That's likely to be some serious field performance. :shock:

Rgds
 
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flee
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:09 am

astuteman wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Airbus is currently debating whether to make the changes common across the family in 2023 when the XLR debuts.
Bear in mind the rest already have single slotted flaps

This article

https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis/a ... ?adredir=1

explains that the move to a simpler, cheaper flap system was actually prompted by the extra performance of the sharklet.
It also saves weight

Rgds

Airbus expects the new single slotted flaps, not the same design as on the rest of the family, be more effective than the double ones.


Indeed they do. Which is why, along with commonality, I suspect they will ultimately morph them across the fleet.
An A320 NEO with a high lift flap system more effective than the double-slotted one currently on the A321NEO.

I wonder if Airbus will make the fuel tank system of the XLR available for its ACJs too - that will make them awesome long range corporate jets.
That's likely to be some serious field performance. :shock:

Rgds

It makes sense to have parts commonality - not only saves manufacturing costs, it also makes it easier in maintenance.
 
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Polot
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:45 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT.


Rule of thumb: 400nm per ACT.
Passengers on board don't really matter, it runs out of fuel volume before running out of floor space, even with the ~4 ACT worth XLR for all but really dense configurations.

Best regards
Thomas

Passengers matter in the sense that at some point with a given passenger load you are going to run out of available weight for fuel no matter how much fuel volume you have available (see A333 vs A343). Of course that won’t happen with 160 passengers and 2 ACTs, that is lighter than many existing A321s
 
tommy1808
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:53 pm

Polot wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT.


Rule of thumb: 400nm per ACT.
Passengers on board don't really matter, it runs out of fuel volume before running out of floor space, even with the ~4 ACT worth XLR for all but really dense configurations.

Best regards
Thomas

Passengers matter in the sense that at some point with a given passenger load you are going to run out of available weight for fuel no matter how much fuel volume you have available (see A333 vs A343). I don’t know if that happens with 160 pax and 4 ACTs though.


Is there any airline A321 with 4 ACT? ;)

The XLR will run out of weight with -21t payload and full tanks and hence ~18t with the "4th", that is the 5th volume wise. So 160 ~170 pax if you want to be reasonably sure to have enough lift for all bags.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Polot
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:55 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Polot wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

Rule of thumb: 400nm per ACT.
Passengers on board don't really matter, it runs out of fuel volume before running out of floor space, even with the ~4 ACT worth XLR for all but really dense configurations.

Best regards
Thomas

Passengers matter in the sense that at some point with a given passenger load you are going to run out of available weight for fuel no matter how much fuel volume you have available (see A333 vs A343). I don’t know if that happens with 160 pax and 4 ACTs though.


Is there any airline A321 with 4 ACT? ;)

The XLR will run out of weight with -21t payload and full tanks and hence ~18t with the "4th", that is the 5th volume wise. So 160 ~170 pax if you want to be reasonably sure to have enough lift for all bags.

Best regards
Thomas

There isn’t. I misread his post and thought he was asking about 160 pax with 4 ACTs. I edited it when I caught my error, but evidently not quick enough ;)
 
S75752
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:16 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

Let's keep in mind that the longest flight in the world on a B752 is Iceland to San Francisco which is 3,641 nm or 4,200 statute miles.
Foreign carriers tend to push the envelope more than domestic ones.


That is a fascinating flight. While I am aware that it is not the longest flight ever done on a B757, I do understand that the longer flights were not subject to westbound headwind issues (Though was EWR-TXL on a 757? I feel like I can vaguely recall some discussion regarding that years ago). Is this flight constrained by such issues? I'm not sure how to look in to a cancellation and delay history for it, aside from FR24 for only the past week.

I hate to be "that" guy, but this topic makes me have to wonder if waiting for the XLR could have saved WOW air, instead of going for the higher capacity A330. On that note though, what I found exciting years ago and find exciting now about the LR and XLR is not only the routes it may open, but the number of airlines it will open those routes to whom would otherwise not afford a widebody, nor wanted the trouble of adding a separate dedicated type to their fleet in the case of the 757.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:21 pm

YIMBY wrote:
This is the window where pp flights between second tier airports or higher frequency from hubs are more relevant than for >9 h flights.


I am wondering if flights over 9 hours will become popular using the XLR.

The current longest B752 flight is 8:55 one way and 8:40 return (Iceland to SFO)
http://info.flightmapper.net/route/YY_KEF_SFO

Mexicana used to have a Cancún to Buenos Aires which was longer by 1.8%, but the time may still have stayed under 9 hours because minimal headwinds.
 
incitatus
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:43 pm

The potential for a narrow body with more range than the 757 is vast. That has been evident from how airlines have used the 757 on Transatlantic routes for which it had marginal range, such as Newark-Berlin. Boeing has no one but themselves to blame for making such a huge strategic mistake. But I do think this market is large enough for two products - and the NMA is not one of them.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:05 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
I am wondering if flights over 9 hours will become popular using the XLR.

PR is about to assign their 168-seat A321N on MNL-PER and have used the same with mixed results on Australia's east coast. Here's the ultimate A321XLR challenge for them. Could they deploy the XLR on MNL-AKL with the same configuration without a problem, should they opt to switch a haul of their existing A321N order to that version :?: They are now fielding reconfigured A330s on the route 3x weekly and a 6x XLR schedule might be more profitable when the slot situation in MNL is finally resolved. It's mostly a North-South track with plenty of alternates along the way.....

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MNL-AKL%2F ... =wls&DU=nm
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