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rbavfan
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:26 am

PacoMartin wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
Just like the 787 continues to "unlock" all sorts of long range city pairs, the real magic of the XLR will be opening new medium distance city pairs.


I believe the US has 8 preclearance facilities in Canada and 2 in Ireland (Shannon and Dublin). I hope they get installed in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester, Birmingham, Cork and Belfast. Possibly one in Stansted or Luton. I don't think there is enough room or the possibility of putting one in Heathrow or Gatwick.

That would greatly encourage NB travel between the US and to places other than London

Also Possibities
Nice NCE
Saint Exupéry Lyon LYS
Mérignac Bordeaux BOD
Barcelona–El Prat
Málaga–Costa Del Sol


But the 8 pre clearance facilities in Canada would not have any use for the A321XLR's range to any US airport as the A321neo/lr could already cover those flight options.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:35 am

PacoMartin wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is a question. Given that A321LR claims to have 4200 nm in range and it just has 3 ACTs. What is the range for a 160 seat A321NEO will 2 ACT. The difference here is just one less passenger. Could that do TATL from NYC safely? And how far can it go on a north/south route? One without the range limitations from northatlantic wind.


There is a featured map on gcmap shown on 18 June 2019: Airbus A321XL and United's Newark 757-200s that I believe answers your question better than I can.
http://www.gcmap.com/featured/20190618

---------------------------------------
I broke down the flights in May 2019 to LHR by airline by number of flights, average number of seats per flight, and jet type

United Air Lines Inc. - 7 aircraft types in LHR
31 169 Boeing 757-200
212 206 Boeing 767-300/300ER
59 219 B787-800 Dreamliner
36 240 Boeing 767-400/ER
64 252 B787-900 Dreamliner
93 271 Boeing 777-200ER/200LR/233LR
31 350 Boeing 777-300/300ER/333ER
American Airlines Inc. - 6 aircraft types in LHR
57 234 B787-800 Dreamliner
9 242 Airbus Industrie A330-200
62 285 B787-900 Dreamliner
112 286 Airbus Industrie A330-300
216 272 Boeing 777-200ER/200LR/233LR
184 304 Boeing 777-300/300ER/333ER
Delta Air Lines Inc. - 3 aircraft types in LHR
112 223 Boeing 767-300/300ER
151 233 Airbus Industrie A330-200
35 293 Airbus Industrie A330-300


I think one of the questions that will arise is can airlines fly to a crowded airport like LHR with the single aisle A321XLR. The above table gives us a baseline of how many current routes are flying intp LHR with 235 seats or less.


United flys 757's to LHR so Yes the A321 could do it.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:44 am

astuteman wrote:
Not sure I see the problem


Maybe part of the problem is the inability to accept that anything can actually replace the 757, let alone an Airbus! :shock:
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:59 pm

rbavfan wrote:
The range could allow Hawaiian to fly HNL-STL, HNL-BNA, HNL-CVG, HNL-DAL, HNL-HOU. After all they only have 189 seats on their current fleet. With the XLR 3 door layout they could go to 190 seats (16/56/118) and use the removed door space to add more extra comfort seat rows & an OWEED & still be well below Airbus specs.

I have thought about that, but the Hawaiian executives are not showing any signs of moving in the direction. They only have one more A321neo (not a LR or XLR) on order, and they have renewed leases on all 12 A330s (they also own 12 A330s). They are going to purchase some Dreamliners and London plus possibly Paris are on their list, but it is presumed that Dreamliner will replace some of the leased A330s.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:48 pm

rbavfan wrote:
But the 8 pre clearance facilities in Canada would not have any use for the A321XLR's range to any US airport as the A321neo/lr could already cover those flight options.


I realize that. I was just saying that the DHS believes they can service Canadian visitors with preclearance facilities.

A preclearance facility assumes, almost by definition, that the amount of illegal activity including drug smuggling, illegal immigration, human trafficking, money laundering, etc. is minimal. They don't have the facilities to detain people like they would at LAX.

County Clare in Western Ireland has a population of under 120,000. They have had a pre-clearance facility at Shannon Airport since 1986.

In May 2015 the DHS was considering pre-clearance facilities in:
Brussels Airport, Belgium;
Punta Cana Airport, Dominican Republic;
Narita International Airport, Japan;
Amsterdam Airport Schipol, Netherlands;
Oslo Airport, Norway;
Madrid-Barajas Airport, Spain;
Stockholm Arlanda Airport, Sweden;
Istanbul Ataturk Airport, Turkey;
and London Heathrow Airport and Manchester Airport, United Kingdom.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:54 pm

rbavfan wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
We have to remember, there is a huge market for this aircraft in a lot of places other than TATL.


US carriers to Latin America by distance group (flights, seats, average number of seats per flight)
1 4,122 443,286 108
2 11,329 1,437,486 127
3 13,013 1,984,694 153
4 8,877 1,399,752 158
5 2,195 354,652 162
6 461 79,234 172
7 254 49,419 195
8 122 20,880 171
9 434 113,415 261
10 712 167,873 236
11 430 111,726 260
13 62 17,608 284

While not as large as TATL, there is a big increase at roughly 5000 miles to the major airports of the Southern Cone


You realize FLL-EZE is 4421sm. Also FLL-south deep south america is not flying against head winds so the extra 497sm added for headwinds will not be needed either way. with Mint layour it mat be able to get B6 JFK-EZE flight.


I do realize that. They were flying the B737 MAX from Brazil to Florida when it was operating. I sort of expected Spirit airlines to make an XLR order by now.

The Latin American market is just not as large as Trans Atlantic.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Wed Dec 25, 2019 10:52 pm

grjplanes wrote:
How would the performance be of the A321neoXLR from a hot and high airport, for instance JNB.
Currently there are some destinations with some O&D demand, but not necessarily enough for widebody operations or daily services, which could possibly just be on the fringe of the range of the XLR, but how does this range and capabilities change if they have to be taking off from JNB's runway?

Of course, in no way any South African airline is in a position to purchase these aircraft, but possibly airlines on the other end that could order it and would like to introduce service to JNB for either the O&D demand, or in most cases serving in to their hub and carrying connecting passengers onward:

Current operators serving JNB with widebody 3 or 4 weekly, perhaps could upgrade to daily:
JNB-CAI EgyptAir
JNB-TLV ELAL
JNB-JED Saudia

Other possibilities, routes that were served before, or positioned to offer good onward connections to other popular destinations:
JNB-REC (is the Etops enough?)
JNB-DKR
JNB-CMN
JNB-TUN
JNB-MLA (discussed on other thread...need to go around Libya)
JNB-ATH
JNB-MCT
JNB-BOM
JNB-CMB
JNB-MLE


There will never be a JNB-MLA flight because MLA is too small and the Air Malta A321XLR are planned to serve the NY-India market.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:27 am

Europe to the USA could see a lot more profitable narrow-body services from secondary Europe to JFK that could be sustained year-round. Elsewhere, I also see potential growth for Africa to Europe, allowing triangular routes to be severed, along with USA to LatAm from FLL or MIA. The only reason why a carrier like B6 wouldn't go all XLR is because they need frames sooner.

The A321XLR's success will likely come at the expense of the A330, especially P&W models and non-233t or higher GE or RR frames, whose value likely plummets to scrap.

An airline that should be all over this model: TK---they could serve almost all of Africa with this model, depending on where freight is moved. JNB or CPT likely remains on a wide-body, as would destinations like LOS and some West African destinations, but smaller African destinations would move to the A321XLR. Also, AY could use this model, if they can get more Siberian overflight rights, to open up much more secondary Chinese destinations, keeping in mind that this is easily within a 1-day rotation.
 
DCA350
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:52 am

PacoMartin wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

US carriers to Latin America by distance group (flights, seats, average number of seats per flight)
1 4,122 443,286 108
2 11,329 1,437,486 127
3 13,013 1,984,694 153
4 8,877 1,399,752 158
5 2,195 354,652 162
6 461 79,234 172
7 254 49,419 195
8 122 20,880 171
9 434 113,415 261
10 712 167,873 236
11 430 111,726 260
13 62 17,608 284

While not as large as TATL, there is a big increase at roughly 5000 miles to the major airports of the Southern Cone


You realize FLL-EZE is 4421sm. Also FLL-south deep south america is not flying against head winds so the extra 497sm added for headwinds will not be needed either way. with Mint layour it mat be able to get B6 JFK-EZE flight.


I do realize that. They were flying the B737 MAX from Brazil to Florida when it was operating. I sort of expected Spirit airlines to make an XLR order by now.

The Latin American market is just not as large as Trans Atlantic.


No but the average fare to deep South America is much higher.. I know B6 has their hearts set on London but I think a mint configured XLR could make a killing to Brazil and Argentina, where average fares hover around 1k for economy vs sub $500 for Europe.
 
ewt340
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:53 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Europe to the USA could see a lot more profitable narrow-body services from secondary Europe to JFK that could be sustained year-round. Elsewhere, I also see potential growth for Africa to Europe, allowing triangular routes to be severed, along with USA to LatAm from FLL or MIA. The only reason why a carrier like B6 wouldn't go all XLR is because they need frames sooner.

The A321XLR's success will likely come at the expense of the A330, especially P&W models and non-233t or higher GE or RR frames, whose value likely plummets to scrap.

An airline that should be all over this model: TK---they could serve almost all of Africa with this model, depending on where freight is moved. JNB or CPT likely remains on a wide-body, as would destinations like LOS and some West African destinations, but smaller African destinations would move to the A321XLR. Also, AY could use this model, if they can get more Siberian overflight rights, to open up much more secondary Chinese destinations, keeping in mind that this is easily within a 1-day rotation.


I don't think A330 would fall victim to A321XLR though. The size differences are way too big for each of them to compete on the same route. With 2 class configurations, there are probably around 100 seats differences between them.

I see older B767-300ER in north america getting replaced by A321XLR instead. Since these plane are being used on shorter TATL routes.
 
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flee
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:44 am

ewt340 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Europe to the USA could see a lot more profitable narrow-body services from secondary Europe to JFK that could be sustained year-round. Elsewhere, I also see potential growth for Africa to Europe, allowing triangular routes to be severed, along with USA to LatAm from FLL or MIA. The only reason why a carrier like B6 wouldn't go all XLR is because they need frames sooner.

The A321XLR's success will likely come at the expense of the A330, especially P&W models and non-233t or higher GE or RR frames, whose value likely plummets to scrap.

An airline that should be all over this model: TK---they could serve almost all of Africa with this model, depending on where freight is moved. JNB or CPT likely remains on a wide-body, as would destinations like LOS and some West African destinations, but smaller African destinations would move to the A321XLR. Also, AY could use this model, if they can get more Siberian overflight rights, to open up much more secondary Chinese destinations, keeping in mind that this is easily within a 1-day rotation.


I don't think A330 would fall victim to A321XLR though. The size differences are way too big for each of them to compete on the same route. With 2 class configurations, there are probably around 100 seats differences between them.

I see older B767-300ER in north america getting replaced by A321XLR instead. Since these plane are being used on shorter TATL routes.

Yes, there are some airlines (e.g. TAP and Airasia X) that will be using both the A330Neo and A321LR/XLR in their fleets. They have their specific roles and there is little conflict between them.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:26 pm

ewt340 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Europe to the USA could see a lot more profitable narrow-body services from secondary Europe to JFK that could be sustained year-round. Elsewhere, I also see potential growth for Africa to Europe, allowing triangular routes to be severed, along with USA to LatAm from FLL or MIA. The only reason why a carrier like B6 wouldn't go all XLR is because they need frames sooner.

The A321XLR's success will likely come at the expense of the A330, especially P&W models and non-233t or higher GE or RR frames, whose value likely plummets to scrap.

An airline that should be all over this model: TK---they could serve almost all of Africa with this model, depending on where freight is moved. JNB or CPT likely remains on a wide-body, as would destinations like LOS and some West African destinations, but smaller African destinations would move to the A321XLR. Also, AY could use this model, if they can get more Siberian overflight rights, to open up much more secondary Chinese destinations, keeping in mind that this is easily within a 1-day rotation.


I don't think A330 would fall victim to A321XLR though. The size differences are way too big for each of them to compete on the same route. With 2 class configurations, there are probably around 100 seats differences between them.

I see older B767-300ER in north america getting replaced by A321XLR instead. Since these plane are being used on shorter TATL routes.


This will worsen the glut of older wide body planes though. 767s with significant time left are being converted to freighters. The A330 as a freighter isn’t very popular.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:14 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:


The difference in capacity between a 763 and an international configured A321 is easily 60, maybe even 70 seats. That's a ton of revenue to leave behind. Especially premium seats.


That's what I said in the last paragraph. Although I don't think we're looking at 70 seats difference. Internationally configured A321LR are around 160 seats or so. Average seats on TATL flying 763 are 190 seats. So that's a 30 seat difference.


Based on a comparison of United's 763's and 757's configured for TATL operations, the 763 has 68 premium and 47 economy + seats; the 752 has 28 premium and 42 economy + seats. So while the overall capacity difference is 25 seats, the 763 offers 40 more premium and 5 more economy + seats than the TATL 757. I would expect a similar difference with the A321XLR.


The fraction of premium seat depends on the configuration and is decided by the airline. Some TATL narrowbodies are premium only.

In a typical 300 seater you may have
50 passengers giving profit
100 passengers paying average costs
100 passengers paying additional costs (and taken away from competitors)
50 seats empty

Replacing that with a 150 seater leaves you most of the premium paying customers and you lose the low-paying pax, assuming that you have sufficient premium seats and service. (Of course it is different if you can charge premium price for all 250-300 pax with economy product.)

Hence a smaller plane may be more profitable even if its average seat costs are a bit higher. (Cargo may change the balance, though.)
 
ewt340
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:23 am

YIMBY wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

That's what I said in the last paragraph. Although I don't think we're looking at 70 seats difference. Internationally configured A321LR are around 160 seats or so. Average seats on TATL flying 763 are 190 seats. So that's a 30 seat difference.


Based on a comparison of United's 763's and 757's configured for TATL operations, the 763 has 68 premium and 47 economy + seats; the 752 has 28 premium and 42 economy + seats. So while the overall capacity difference is 25 seats, the 763 offers 40 more premium and 5 more economy + seats than the TATL 757. I would expect a similar difference with the A321XLR.


The fraction of premium seat depends on the configuration and is decided by the airline. Some TATL narrowbodies are premium only.

In a typical 300 seater you may have
50 passengers giving profit
100 passengers paying average costs
100 passengers paying additional costs (and taken away from competitors)
50 seats empty

Replacing that with a 150 seater leaves you most of the premium paying customers and you lose the low-paying pax, assuming that you have sufficient premium seats and service. (Of course it is different if you can charge premium price for all 250-300 pax with economy product.)

Hence a smaller plane may be more profitable even if its average seat costs are a bit higher. (Cargo may change the balance, though.)


While I agree with your point. I'm pretty sure smaller plane like MAX8 and A321XLR have lower average seat costs compared to the likes of B757/B767/A330.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:30 am

PacoMartin wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
The range could allow Hawaiian to fly HNL-STL, HNL-BNA, HNL-CVG, HNL-DAL, HNL-HOU. After all they only have 189 seats on their current fleet. With the XLR 3 door layout they could go to 190 seats (16/56/118) and use the removed door space to add more extra comfort seat rows & an OWEED & still be well below Airbus specs.

I have thought about that, but the Hawaiian executives are not showing any signs of moving in the direction. They only have one more A321neo (not a LR or XLR) on order, and they have renewed leases on all 12 A330s (they also own 12 A330s). They are going to purchase some Dreamliners and London plus possibly Paris are on their list, but it is presumed that Dreamliner will replace some of the leased A330s.


The plan for the 10 B789s to start is also half owned, half leased. As for why no more A321XLRs...it may not be so much flight distance to destination, but also cargo moved, OR the alternate. I suspect that the amount of cargo moved is why wide-bodies are being used on 5-hour hops. If Hawaiian didn't need to replace its B763s sooner (which included one non-ER), HA likely could have held out for the XLR. However, I do expect even the B789s to be used on regional operations to move cargo.

As for the 238t A332s coming off lease or being sold, they will have a market.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:53 pm

ewt340 wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

Based on a comparison of United's 763's and 757's configured for TATL operations, the 763 has 68 premium and 47 economy + seats; the 752 has 28 premium and 42 economy + seats. So while the overall capacity difference is 25 seats, the 763 offers 40 more premium and 5 more economy + seats than the TATL 757. I would expect a similar difference with the A321XLR.


The fraction of premium seat depends on the configuration and is decided by the airline. Some TATL narrowbodies are premium only.

In a typical 300 seater you may have
50 passengers giving profit
100 passengers paying average costs
100 passengers paying additional costs (and taken away from competitors)
50 seats empty

Replacing that with a 150 seater leaves you most of the premium paying customers and you lose the low-paying pax, assuming that you have sufficient premium seats and service. (Of course it is different if you can charge premium price for all 250-300 pax with economy product.)

Hence a smaller plane may be more profitable even if its average seat costs are a bit higher. (Cargo may change the balance, though.)


While I agree with your point. I'm pretty sure smaller plane like MAX8 and A321XLR have lower average seat costs compared to the likes of B757/B767/A330.


Depends. Pilot salaries, e.g., may be significant.
 
DominoxX
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:19 pm

The A321XLR allows flights from south east USA, Central America and the Caribbean to deep South America. These are flights now operated with widebodies and cities served in these regions are a handful. The XLR will alow more frequencies to CUN and Punta Cana (the most popular vacation spots), open new destinations which are also popular with Chileans and Argentinians (Aruba, Curacao, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cuba). The biggest trading partners for Chile and Argentina in Central America after Mexico are Costa Rica and Guatemala..
I think the XLR will allow Chile have two more airlines with long-haul coverage, competing head to head with LATAM on Latin American routes. I doubt if AR will allow much more competition...
Sky and Jetsmart in the short term will fly SCL-MIA/FLL with XLRs

So in this part of the world, the A321XLR is a prophecy come true

Does anyone know if the XLR can fly Santiago-Easter Island ?
Thank u, next.
 
DominoxX
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:21 pm

DominoxX wrote:
The A321XLR allows flights from south east USA, Central America and the Caribbean to deep South America. These are flights now operated with widebodies and cities served in these regions are a handful and flown by one airline for Chile (LA) and one for Argentina (AR). The XLR will allow competitors add more frequencies to CUN and Punta Cana (the most popular vacation spots), open new destinations which are also popular with Chileans and Argentinians (Aruba, Curacao, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cuba).
The biggest trading partners for Chile and Argentina in Central America after Mexico are Costa Rica and Guatemala..
I think the XLR will allow Chile have two more airlines with long-haul coverage, competing head to head with LATAM on Latin American routes. I doubt if AR will allow much more competition...
Sky and Jetsmart in the short term will fly SCL-MIA/FLL with XLRs

So in this part of the world, the A321XLR is a prophecy come true

Does anyone know if the XLR can fly Santiago-Easter Island ?
Thank u, next.
 
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PW100
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:47 pm

DominoxX wrote:
Does anyone know if the XLR can fly Santiago-Easter Island ?

It's a six hour flight, so easily within range of even a normal LR. Not sure on ETOPS considerations though.
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DominoxX
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:45 pm

PW100 wrote:
DominoxX wrote:
Does anyone know if the XLR can fly Santiago-Easter Island ?

It's a six hour flight, so easily within range of even a normal LR. Not sure on ETOPS considerations though.


There's no possibility of refuelling in IPC
Thank u, next.
 
ewt340
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:48 am

YIMBY wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
YIMBY wrote:

The fraction of premium seat depends on the configuration and is decided by the airline. Some TATL narrowbodies are premium only.

In a typical 300 seater you may have
50 passengers giving profit
100 passengers paying average costs
100 passengers paying additional costs (and taken away from competitors)
50 seats empty

Replacing that with a 150 seater leaves you most of the premium paying customers and you lose the low-paying pax, assuming that you have sufficient premium seats and service. (Of course it is different if you can charge premium price for all 250-300 pax with economy product.)

Hence a smaller plane may be more profitable even if its average seat costs are a bit higher. (Cargo may change the balance, though.)


While I agree with your point. I'm pretty sure smaller plane like MAX8 and A321XLR have lower average seat costs compared to the likes of B757/B767/A330.


Depends. Pilot salaries, e.g., may be significant.


I'm not so sure about that. While their salary might be bigger for the XLR longer flights. It is still a narrow-body aircraft.

I'm sure it's still way lower compared to the likes of B767-300ER, A330-200 or B787-8.

+ the fuel savings and the fact that they would be able to fill the smaller aircraft all year round compared to semi-empty widebodies on low season.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:36 am

looked at Long Range International flights (over 4000 and over 5000 statute miles) for a recent month

> 4000 sm - > 5000 sm
14 Hawaiian 4
135 American 70
164 Delta 83
181 United 113

So it seems as if American Airlines, for instance, must maintain at least 70 widebody jets to keep up the current network. But allowing for maintenance and some very busy shorter range routes we'll round that off to 100 widebody jets.

Today American Airlines flies 154 widebodies of 4 different main types (7 different models)
15 Airbus A330-200 7.8 years on average
9 Airbus A330-300 19.2
21 Boeing 767-300 20.2
47 Boeing 777-200 18.8
20 Boeing 777-300 5.7
20 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 3.9
22 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 2.0

Could you imagine in a decade that American would cut back on widebodies and making more use of the A321XLR?

American Boeing widebody orders (first to last)
58 767-300ER 3. Mar. 1987 22. May. 2001
47 777-200ER 21. Nov. 1996 31. Dec. 2001
20 777-300ER 9. Aug. 2000 1. Feb. 2013
20 787-8 1. Feb. 2013
47 787-9 1. Feb. 2013 10. Apr. 2018

Do you think that in ten years there will be more or fewer widebodies?
 
JonesNL
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Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:17 am

PacoMartin wrote:
looked at Long Range International flights (over 4000 and over 5000 statute miles) for a recent month

> 4000 sm - > 5000 sm
14 Hawaiian 4
135 American 70
164 Delta 83
181 United 113

So it seems as if American Airlines, for instance, must maintain at least 70 widebody jets to keep up the current network. But allowing for maintenance and some very busy shorter range routes we'll round that off to 100 widebody jets.

Today American Airlines flies 154 widebodies of 4 different main types (7 different models)
15 Airbus A330-200 7.8 years on average
9 Airbus A330-300 19.2
21 Boeing 767-300 20.2
47 Boeing 777-200 18.8
20 Boeing 777-300 5.7
20 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 3.9
22 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 2.0

Could you imagine in a decade that American would cut back on widebodies and making more use of the A321XLR?

American Boeing widebody orders (first to last)
58 767-300ER 3. Mar. 1987 22. May. 2001
47 777-200ER 21. Nov. 1996 31. Dec. 2001
20 777-300ER 9. Aug. 2000 1. Feb. 2013
20 787-8 1. Feb. 2013
47 787-9 1. Feb. 2013 10. Apr. 2018

Do you think that in ten years there will be more or fewer widebodies?


I think the A321 XLR will be quite a widebody killer. A321 XLR works probably on 80-90% of all the routes until 4500nm range. With the rest of routes being served better by the likes of the A220 or even smaller. It will have amazing resale value as well, because it is easy to incorporate to the existing A32x fleet. Come to think of it, the reduction in risks are on a lot of levels; fleetmanagement, yields, resale value, parts availability, pilot pools, technician pools.

Widebodies will have to work in a narrowing niche of slot restricted airports and/or above 4500nm stages(which some airliners can overcome with an technical stop). Maybe you have the numbers, but what is the portion of 4500nm+ flights of the total flown flights by widebodies?
 
olle
Posts: 2481
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:37 pm

Is not there aa.net truth that

A. A bigger plane will always be replaced by a smaller if casm is similar
B. Frequence is king.

I see a321 will kill many wb orders.
 
kayik
Posts: 117
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:58 pm

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:51 pm

DominoxX wrote:
PW100 wrote:
DominoxX wrote:
Does anyone know if the XLR can fly Santiago-Easter Island ?

It's a six hour flight, so easily within range of even a normal LR. Not sure on ETOPS considerations though.


There's no possibility of refuelling in IPC


looks like there is now

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1 ... rQ89=h1440
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
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Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:28 am

JonesNL wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
looked at Long Range International flights (over 4000 and over 5000 statute miles) for a recent month
Widebodies will have to work in a narrowing niche of slot restricted airports and/or above 4500nm stages(which some airliners can overcome with a technical stop). Maybe you have the numbers, but what is the portion of 4500nm+ flights of the total flown flights by widebodies?


All nonstop flights above 3650 nm are flown by widebodies today,
The longest nonstop flown by a Boeing 757-200 is Reykjavik to San Francisco 3,641 nm
The longest nonstop flown by an Airbus A321neo is Montréal, Canad to Nice, France 3,318 nm

Technical stops are very expensive and are almost all replaced with 5th freedom flights that are international and can sell tickets for the additional leg. Qantas flies from LAX to JFK without selling additional tickets because three flights from major airports in Australia are all times to land in LAX at the same time.

I mentioned AA for several reasons. They have the smallest number of ultra- long range flights of the legacy three airlines, they are investing heavily in the A321XLR, they are losing money big time on the trans Pacific flights. They could theoretically pull almost all widebodies from their hubs below. I don't believe AA has any trans-Pacific flights from these airports.

Philadelphia
Charlotte
New York–JFK
Chicago–O'Hare

There are no widebodies permitted to fly from:
Washington–National
New York–LaGuardia
 
JonesNL
Posts: 202
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:36 am

Apologies, I meant 5th freedom route instead of technical stop.
I never thought of the XLR to the widebodies, but thinking about it the end conclusie is quite dire for the widebodies. The vast amount of widebodies will become obselete. Even the most economical operation of the 787 has at best the same CASM as the XLR. Seeing that smaller planes replacing the bigger one at same casm, the future of the A330, 787 and even some A350 doesn't look really bright.
 
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RWA380
Posts: 5747
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:43 am

PacoMartin wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
looked at Long Range International flights (over 4000 and over 5000 statute miles) for a recent month
Widebodies will have to work in a narrowing niche of slot restricted airports and/or above 4500nm stages(which some airliners can overcome with a technical stop). Maybe you have the numbers, but what is the portion of 4500nm+ flights of the total flown flights by widebodies?


All nonstop flights above 3650 nm are flown by widebodies today,
The longest nonstop flown by a Boeing 757-200 is Reykjavik to San Francisco 3,641 nm
The longest nonstop flown by an Airbus A321neo is Montréal, Canad to Nice, France 3,318 nm

Technical stops are very expensive and are almost all replaced with 5th freedom flights that are international and can sell tickets for the additional leg. Qantas flies from LAX to JFK without selling additional tickets because three flights from major airports in Australia are all times to land in LAX at the same time.

I mentioned AA for several reasons. They have the smallest number of ultra- long range flights of the legacy three airlines, they are investing heavily in the A321XLR, they are losing money big time on the trans Pacific flights. They could theoretically pull almost all widebodies from their hubs below. I don't believe AA has any trans-Pacific flights from these airports.

Philadelphia
Charlotte
New York–JFK
Chicago–O'Hare

There are no widebodies permitted to fly from:
Washington–National
New York–LaGuardia


Hey Paco,

FI does not fly their 757's to SFO, in fact the destination is slated to be cancelled & the 763 is being redeployed to JFK, MSP, BOS or where it's needed. I noticed you have stated it multiple times in this thread & it's not accurate, thought you'd like to know. The longest FI 757 flight is KEF-PDX, beats SEA out by mere miles.

Secondly, remember Hawaiian will never gets the listed range out of any mainland aircraft, as they carry extra fuel weight for ETOPS 180 operations & that also includes added weight for additional safety rafts & vests. Given the rather intense headwinds flying Westbound at certain times of year, LAS-HNL is as far as HA will be flying their A-321neo's.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
DominoxX
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:52 pm

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:08 am

kayik wrote:
DominoxX wrote:
PW100 wrote:
It's a six hour flight, so easily within range of even a normal LR. Not sure on ETOPS considerations though.


There's no possibility of refuelling in IPC


looks like there is now

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1 ... rQ89=h1440


thank you!
Thank u, next.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:48 pm

JonesNL wrote:
I never thought of the XLR to the widebodies, but thinking about it the end conclusie is quite dire for the widebodies. The vast amount of widebodies will become obselete. Even the most economical operation of the 787 has at best the same CASM as the XLR.

Try to predict AA fleet makeup in 15 years using the table of AA international flights over 5000 sm. Under current acquisition plans AA will have 89 Dreamliners. There may be an A322 by then and possibly the much anticipated Boeing NMA which should be a widebody

AA current widebody fleet of 154 jets
15 Airbus A330-200 7.8 years on average
9 Airbus A330-300 19.2
21 Boeing 767-300 20.2
47 Boeing 777-200 18.8
20 Boeing 777-300 5.7
20 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 3.9
22 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 2.0

In 15 years would AA just have a widebody fleet at LAX and DFW? Would the remaining three routes at ORD, PHX, and JFK be traded for foreign partners? Would the resulting fleet efficiency bring AA profit back in line with United and Delta?

statute miles - AA international flights - flights per day
5111 DFW GRU 1
5143 DFW FRA 1
5286 DFW EZE 1
5614 DFW FCO 1
6427 DFW NRT 2
6841 DFW ICN 1
6971 DFW PEK 1
7351 DFW PVG 1
8120 DFW HKG 1

5451 LAX NRT 1
5456 LAX LHR 2
5487 LAX HND 1
6115 LAX EZE 4 week
6156 LAX GRU 1
6251 LAX PEK 1
6485 LAX PVG 1
7260 LAX HKG 1
7487 LAX SYD 1

5282 JFK EZE 1
6274 ORD NRT 4 week
5271 PHX LHR 1


Of course, it is possible that air travel will increase so much in 15 years, that there will be a renewed call for larger jets even for short trips. I know that AA makes heavy use of the A330 on PHL to CLT (448 statute miles).
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Potential for A321 XLR

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:01 pm

RWA380 wrote:
Hey Paco,

FI does not fly their 757's to SFO, in fact the destination is slated to be cancelled & the 763 is being redeployed to JFK, MSP, BOS or where it's needed. I noticed you have stated it multiple times in this thread & it's not accurate, thought you'd like to know. The longest FI 757 flight is KEF-PDX, beats SEA out by mere miles.

Good to know. The route is still listed in Wikipedia as Icelandair's longest flight, and the longest flight worldwide for any B752.


RWA380 wrote:
Secondly, remember Hawaiian will never gets the listed range out of any mainland aircraft, as they carry extra fuel weight for ETOPS 180 operations & that also includes added weight for additional safety rafts & vests. Given the rather intense headwinds flying Westbound at certain times of year, LAS-HNL is as far as HA will be flying their A-321neo's.

2762 miles LAS-HNL
2917 miles PHX-HNL

Phoenix is HA most distant Western mainland destination. I don't know if they can get an extra 155 miles. They must continue to use widebodies for BOS and JFK, but they may want to expand to mid-size airports like Austin to HNL which are not covered by any airlines,

I guess it all depends on how aggressive Southwest expansion will become once the MAX is re-certified. Hawaiian may want to lease more A321neos and return some of their A330s to the lessor.

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