ScottB wrote:lightsaber wrote:Going from 13 to 8 fleet types is Wise:
*777-200ER (RR Engines)
777-200LR (GE engines)
I put a star next to the frames I think will leave, add A321NEO. No huge surprises.
The OP mentions 13 fleet families in 2020 so I suspect they are counting the 77Es and 77Ls as a single fleet family; the A321neos start to arrive in 2020.
I think you're right about the MD-88, MD-90, 757, and 767 fleets departing, but I think the fifth fleet to go is the 717. They have an obvious replacement with the A221/A223 and the vast majority of the 717 fleet is leased. And as we have seen with the MD-88 and MD-90 fleets, the small size of the global 717 fleet will make spare parts more costly as these aircraft enter their third decade. That said, DL would have some leverage with Boeing and lessors to keep the 717s flying; while they are leasing most of their 717 fleet from WN, those subleases would likely have expirations connected to WN's leases, and IIRC Boeing Capital is the lessor for many of those 717s. Obviously it depends on the amount of lease cash flow measured against the cost of maintaining vendor support.
But in the timeframe that 757s, 767s, and 717s would exit the fleet, I think there's an obvious need for something else to fill the gap between the A321neo and the A332. I wouldn't be surprised to see whatever Boeing proposes next (NMA? 737MAX/757 replacement?) in there. That'd probably come in as the 777s exit.
They have made statements they want to keep the type through 2030, also they are on a lease to buy with Southwest, so I dont see them going anywhere until at least early 2030s.https://onemileatatime.com/delta-717/