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Tack
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:45 am

[quote="SurfandSnow] AS is a wildcard. B6 actually seemed to do fairly well with its flights between LGB and the Pacific Northwest, and I'm not sure AS had the right aircraft for such services before the E-175 (when their options were just 737s, Q400s and CRJ-700s). A few E-175 flights between SEA (and perhaps even PDX?) and LGB might not be much riskier than their recent expansion in other California markets like MRY and SBP.. [/quote]

AS made it clear in an internal employee publication, they have zero interest in LGB. Crap yields. They won’t be looking for any slots.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:57 am

Tack wrote:
AS made it clear in an internal employee publication, they have zero interest in LGB. Crap yields. They won’t be looking for any slots.


I don’t doubt it but obviously that is based on a market dynamic where B6 is there. Take them away and it’s certainly possible things change. LGB is a much larger market than many other markets AS operates out of in CA.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:11 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
Tack wrote:
AS made it clear in an internal employee publication, they have zero interest in LGB. Crap yields. They won’t be looking for any slots.


I don’t doubt it but obviously that is based on a market dynamic where B6 is there. Take them away and it’s certainly possible things change. LGB is a much larger market than many other markets AS operates out of in CA.


Now preCovid AS And WN we're in a good Tit for Tat battle for the California market.
I know it will probably not happen But I would find it quite amusing if they came in with Horizon/Skywest and swooped up 9 slots.
Adding something like 5 SFO,2 SEA and 2 PDX.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
MDGLongBeach
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:21 am

I think B6 leaving screams an AS reentrance to LGB, SFO, PDX and SEA all being vacant. 2x SFO, 1x PDX and 2+xSEA makes sense considering PDX and SEA have no competition and SFO could be a convenient connecting base for east coast travelers considering that we lost our transcon service.
 
ScottB
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:47 am

lightsaber wrote:
WN would be wise to pursue JFK, EWR, DTW, or maybe even DFW gates over LGB.


DFW isn't in the cards for WN. They'd have to relinquish gates at DAL if they were to start service at DFW and they have no interest in doing that. The only way I could see WN at DFW (outside of charters or diversions) would be if they were to commit to some amount of service at DFW in exchange for permission to build more gates at DAL. And we know AA has zero interest in either of those happening.

Not sure why you think DTW gates would be urgent for anyone. The North Terminal can be expanded by building a new concourse where the Smith Terminal used to be.

JFK/EWR: Well, they'd rather have gates and slots at LGA if they can get 'em. LGA is a much better match for their short-haul-focused model. Heck, I could see them buying DCA assets from AA if AA were to need the money.

MDGLongBeach wrote:
I think B6 leaving screams an AS reentrance to LGB, SFO, PDX and SEA all being vacant. 2x SFO, 1x PDX and 2+xSEA makes sense considering PDX and SEA have no competition and SFO could be a convenient connecting base for east coast travelers considering that we lost our transcon service.


I don't think there's much need for AS to reenter LGB when they've got good schedules at LAX and SNA. 1-2x daily at LGB won't be competitive with their offerings at LAX/SNA and transcon connections over SFO are gonna be dirt-cheap bottom-of-the-barrel fares. Yeah, LAX is a PITA but do you really want to risk a misconnect at SFO when there's a GDP?

spinkid wrote:
LGB could, in theory look ilke what it did before jetBlue arrived.


Actually I think it's more likely to look like it did just before WN arrived. In April 2016, there were roughly 25 daily arrivals and departures among all carriers -- and I could see WN being pretty comfortable with 4-5x to each of OAK/SJC/SMF/LAS/PHX/DEN -- assuming demand eventually returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels.
 
Tack
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:13 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
Tack wrote:
AS made it clear in an internal employee publication, they have zero interest in LGB. Crap yields. They won’t be looking for any slots.


I don’t doubt it but obviously that is based on a market dynamic where B6 is there. Take them away and it’s certainly possible things change. LGB is a much larger market than many other markets AS operates out of in CA.


LGB yields were always some of the lowest for AS. Even when AS first started in October 1982, Two flights a day were tag flights with ONT. A few years later they tagged a flight to BUR. AS just responded to the LGB question last week, well after B6 announced their departure. Anything is possible, but for this round of slots? I don’t think so.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:43 pm

ScottB wrote:
Actually I think it's more likely to look like it did just before WN arrived. In April 2016, there were roughly 25 daily arrivals and departures among all carriers -- and I could see WN being pretty comfortable with 4-5x to each of OAK/SJC/SMF/LAS/PHX/DEN -- assuming demand eventually returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels.


Why when everyone in this thread has chanted the same thing over and over: LGB does not make money! Why do you think WN, with its far higher labor costs, suddenly is going to make money when every other airline failed to there?

WN is falling into the same trap as the others, thinking slots at a slot restricted airport are actually worth something just because.
 
gmcc
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:49 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Actually I think it's more likely to look like it did just before WN arrived. In April 2016, there were roughly 25 daily arrivals and departures among all carriers -- and I could see WN being pretty comfortable with 4-5x to each of OAK/SJC/SMF/LAS/PHX/DEN -- assuming demand eventually returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels.


Why when everyone in this thread has chanted the same thing over and over: LGB does not make money! Why do you think WN, with its far higher labor costs, suddenly is going to make money when every other airline failed to there?

WN is falling into the same trap as the others, thinking slots at a slot restricted airport are actually worth something just because.

Part of the reason that WN is successful is that they have build a following as a low price airline that doesn't charge for bags like the other evil airlines and is on the traveling public's side. That's not always the case, as a lot of times they are more expensive on competing route, but that is the perception they have carefully crafted. LGB wIll mostly likely end up like OAK, with a captive audience on southwest.com picking it as their go to airport for Southern California if they want to avoid LAX. Just like OAK other airliners will decide they don't want to enter an airport where WN has an 80% or higher market share.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:18 pm

We lived in Long Beach scores of years ago. LAX and other airports had to be whole lot cheaper or better times for us to choose another airport. IIRC Alaska and its champagne flights were the 'go to' airline for us. We would be happy if we still lived there to choose WN.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
ScottB
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:13 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Why when everyone in this thread has chanted the same thing over and over: LGB does not make money! Why do you think WN, with its far higher labor costs, suddenly is going to make money when every other airline failed to there?

WN is falling into the same trap as the others, thinking slots at a slot restricted airport are actually worth something just because.


I think WN has the potential to do better at LGB than B6 or other carriers simply because LGB is a better fit for the WN network. They're the go-to airline in California for short-haul travel, particularly from alternate airports. They also have a route structure which would allow them to supplement local traffic with connections at practically every airport they'd serve from LGB. They can offer connections at OAK, SJC, SMF, LAS, PHX, DEN, AUS, etc.

I am not suggesting that WN should slot-squat at LGB as B6 once did. But there may be some value in keeping a large enough operation at LGB to block another player (Breeze or a ULCC) from coming in to compete in WN's core short-haul markets. And when you factor in WN's much shorter average stage length, their costs are not higher than B6.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:56 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Actually I think it's more likely to look like it did just before WN arrived. In April 2016, there were roughly 25 daily arrivals and departures among all carriers -- and I could see WN being pretty comfortable with 4-5x to each of OAK/SJC/SMF/LAS/PHX/DEN -- assuming demand eventually returns to something approximating pre-pandemic levels.


Why when everyone in this thread has chanted the same thing over and over: LGB does not make money! Why do you think WN, with its far higher labor costs, suddenly is going to make money when every other airline failed to there?

WN is falling into the same trap as the others, thinking slots at a slot restricted airport are actually worth something just because.


WN does pretty well despite its labor costs. Profitability is a function of what people are willing to pay (more per mile than B6 or NK), and labor productivity. They've been perfecting short-haul for decades.
 
MDGLongBeach
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:57 am

So the likeliness we see WN medium haul (MDW, DAL, etc) is unlikely?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:18 am

Medium haul MDW,DAL are definitely possible. Would only be needed if they see o&d to those cities though. Denver offers service to almost all the same cities on the east coast now and geographically is perfect. Frequency to Denver seems like all they need for a connection city to do cross country. Denver is southwests best connection city and serves all the main cities on the east coast and central regions.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:56 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Medium haul MDW,DAL are definitely possible. Would only be needed if they see o&d to those cities though. Denver offers service to almost all the same cities on the east coast now and geographically is perfect. Frequency to Denver seems like all they need for a connection city to do cross country. Denver is southwests best connection city and serves all the main cities on the east coast and central regions.


Well if speculations are true sounds like November and December may see them temporary use unused slots to add. 3 DEN , 3 LAS and 1>4(3) PHX. This will give WN connections to 70 of it's entire network.
Pending the slot lottery out come I can see these rounding out the LGB service during this covid environment.

Flyguy
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MDGLongBeach
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:19 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Medium haul MDW,DAL are definitely possible. Would only be needed if they see o&d to those cities though. Denver offers service to almost all the same cities on the east coast now and geographically is perfect. Frequency to Denver seems like all they need for a connection city to do cross country. Denver is southwests best connection city and serves all the main cities on the east coast and central regions.


I was more trying to get at the convenience of East Coast travel from LGB. JFK was a good yielding route for B6 (I don't know how well BOS did). Considering that most existing East Coast travellers now have to connect you'd think WN (or DL) would try a transcon route.

Though I have a few questions to propose here:

- Why didn't B6 keep a few routes here like JFK/SLC which were valuable to customers here and had positive yields?
- Do we know what their last flight out of LGB is going to be?
- (random question I know) how profitable (or unprofitable) were routes like ORD, FLL, IAD and (especially) ANC when B6 flew them from LGB?

MDG
 
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Coronado990
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:57 pm

I think a dark horse for a couple LGB slots might be Eastern. Seems like they could try something out of JFK.
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BlueBaller
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:03 pm

MDGLongBeach wrote:
[
I was more trying to get at the convenience of East Coast travel from LGB. JFK was a good yielding route for B6 (I don't know how well BOS did). Considering that most existing East Coast travellers now have to connect you'd think WN (or DL) would try a transcon route.

Though I have a few questions to propose here:

- Why didn't B6 keep a few routes here like JFK/SLC which were valuable to customers here and had positive yields?
- Do we know what their last flight out of LGB is going to be?
- (random question I know) how profitable (or unprofitable) were routes like ORD, FLL, IAD and (especially) ANC when B6 flew them from LGB?

MDG


This was about as bad a breakup you'll witness in this industry. They weren't perfect with the curfew violations, etcetera, but JetBlue was basically the battered and abused victim in a relationship that they stayed in for far too long. The higher yielding routes are akin to the brief highlights of gifts and flowers to cover up the mental and emotional damage. LAX was the grown and sexy, more experienced stud who lived an accomplished and more seductive lifestyle. They bailed for a better opportunity with signs of a more stable future.
 
ScottB
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:38 pm

MDGLongBeach wrote:
I was more trying to get at the convenience of East Coast travel from LGB. JFK was a good yielding route for B6 (I don't know how well BOS did). Considering that most existing East Coast travellers now have to connect you'd think WN (or DL) would try a transcon route.

Though I have a few questions to propose here:

- Why didn't B6 keep a few routes here like JFK/SLC which were valuable to customers here and had positive yields?
- Do we know what their last flight out of LGB is going to be?


LGB-JFK wasn't a high-yielding route at all. It was a couple of percent higher than ONT-JFK but they (B6) were getting basically half what DL was getting for LAX-JFK. Yield, not passenger RASM, was right around 9 cents/mile. BOS performed about the same but with about half the traffic. Transcons are not WN's preferred market niche.

B6 has announced their last day of service at LGB will be October 6.
 
ScottB
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:51 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
This was about as bad a breakup you'll witness in this industry. They weren't perfect with the curfew violations, etcetera, but JetBlue was basically the battered and abused victim in a relationship that they stayed in for far too long. The higher yielding routes are akin to the brief highlights of gifts and flowers to cover up the mental and emotional damage. LAX was the grown and sexy, more experienced stud who lived an accomplished and more seductive lifestyle. They bailed for a better opportunity with signs of a more stable future.


Hahahahahaha.

More like a teenager who gets mad because they stay out after curfew and their allowance gets taken away. Then they stay out after curfew some more and hold a loud party at the house while the parents are away for the weekend and are shocked when they don't get a new Tesla for their 16th birthday. Or maybe like the neighbor who fixes up their house and pays your kid to mow the lawn -- but they play loud music every night until well after midnight, and then are shocked that you'd oppose their plan to build a deck behind their house for outdoor late night parties.
 
tphuang
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:06 pm

Again, the curfew only picked up after FIS deal blew up. LGB wasn't complaining about curfews before that.

The other thing to consider is whether an airport like LGB that has such unattractive economics really should be setting conditions? I would guess that if WN wasn't involved and they are running of money from lack of airline fees, they would be a lot more forgiving of breaking curfews.

As I said before, WN is a very well run airline. It's giving LGB a good old try. If the yield still looks like garbage with B6 gone, WN will cut down significantly. If AS couldn't make SEA work, I just don't see why WN will suddenly turn around stuff like LGB-SJC/DEN.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:20 pm

ScottB wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
This was about as bad a breakup you'll witness in this industry. They weren't perfect with the curfew violations, etcetera, but JetBlue was basically the battered and abused victim in a relationship that they stayed in for far too long. The higher yielding routes are akin to the brief highlights of gifts and flowers to cover up the mental and emotional damage. LAX was the grown and sexy, more experienced stud who lived an accomplished and more seductive lifestyle. They bailed for a better opportunity with signs of a more stable future.


Hahahahahaha.

More like a teenager who gets mad because they stay out after curfew and their allowance gets taken away. Then they stay out after curfew some more and hold a loud party at the house while the parents are away for the weekend and are shocked when they don't get a new Tesla for their 16th birthday. Or maybe like the neighbor who fixes up their house and pays your kid to mow the lawn -- but they play loud music every night until well after midnight, and then are shocked that you'd oppose their plan to build a deck behind their house for outdoor late night parties.


Pick your own parallel. JetBlue left on their own volition for a more receptive audience and LGB is left with a smoking hole in their network feed, which will ultimately be dominated by Southwest who's only going to show a token, regional presence. Never in the history of that airport had it seen such a broad offering of destinations served. No love lost.
 
ScottB
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
Again, the curfew only picked up after FIS deal blew up. LGB wasn't complaining about curfews before that.


Oh I certainly expect they were even before the FIS was shot down by City Council in early 2017. B6 broke the 11 PM curfew 133 times in 2016 and paid over $600,000 in fines that year. They were already paying higher fines than other operators under the alternative enforcement provision. If you're wanting some sort of accommodation from the local authorities it's probably wise to not be breaking rules every 3 days on average, just saying. That the violations got much worse after that just makes B6 look like the corporate equivalent of a spoiled brat throwing a tantrum.
 
tphuang
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:56 pm

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Again, the curfew only picked up after FIS deal blew up. LGB wasn't complaining about curfews before that.


Oh I certainly expect they were even before the FIS was shot down by City Council in early 2017. B6 broke the 11 PM curfew 133 times in 2016 and paid over $600,000 in fines that year. They were already paying higher fines than other operators under the alternative enforcement provision. If you're wanting some sort of accommodation from the local authorities it's probably wise to not be breaking rules every 3 days on average, just saying. That the violations got much worse after that just makes B6 look like the corporate equivalent of a spoiled brat throwing a tantrum.


And after that, that's just what a terrible relationship looks like. JetBlue was simply no longer incentivized to even try to meet curfew. You are equating ambivalence with spoiled. Why would they want more accommodation from LGB? LGB didn't give them the one thing that could've kept them there.

beggars can't be chosers. And LGB is looking like a beggar right now.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:06 pm

Well per CrankFlyer WN cut a lot of flights for AUG.
In regards to LGB AUG losses Half it's flights and completely drops SJC.
SJC been one of the most Impacted markets by everyone since it's largely a business destination.
I wouldn't be surprised on the split September-January revision/extension coming Aug 13 by WN to see SJC-LGB completely dropped until summer time 2021.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
ScottB
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:10 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
JetBlue left on their own volition for a more receptive audience and LGB is left with a smoking hole in their network feed, which will ultimately be dominated by Southwest who's only going to show a token, regional presence. Never in the history of that airport had it seen such a broad offering of destinations served. No love lost.


No doubt. But it's not like the rules with respect to the noise ordinance had changed. If the community limits the number of available slots at an airport, particularly with a number that's as restrictive as LGB's, they have to understand that will necessarily limit the service choices at the airport. And the decision to put the kibosh on the FIS was a pretty clear expression of being OK with more limited service at the airport. It should surprise no one that many Long Beach residents would probably be happier with zero airline service there.

Even at SNA, the broad majority of service is to airports west of DEN, inclusive. The alternate airports in the L.A. Basin function best on dense regional routes. These are the markets with enough traffic to support frequent service between multiple airport pairs with competitive frequencies. NYC is big enough to support that sort of service, but the NYC point-of-sale likely doesn't have enough preference for the alternates, with the possible exception of SNA, to really drive much service to those airports. LAX has the name recognition, high frequency, and product mix, and just about all the relevant airline brands go there non-stop.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:41 am

Post covid as well as pre covid LB wants to be a small and minor airport. Every airline must have known that. If it is convenient and the prices are right use it. Otherwise there are alternatives. Here in the PNW have have something similar going on in Everett. Except that Everett does not have the same rights as LB when it comes to limiting flights.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
jplatts
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:43 am

ScottB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
WN would be wise to pursue JFK, EWR, DTW, or maybe even DFW gates over LGB.


DFW isn't in the cards for WN. They'd have to relinquish gates at DAL if they were to start service at DFW and they have no interest in doing that. The only way I could see WN at DFW (outside of charters or diversions) would be if they were to commit to some amount of service at DFW in exchange for permission to build more gates at DAL. And we know AA has zero interest in either of those happening.


WN will be able to add service out of airports other than DAL in the Dallas/Fort Worth market without having to give up gates at DAL starting in 2025.

I had also mentioned in the Southwest Fleet/Network Thread that WN has room to add a few more nonstop routes out of DAL with the cuts that WN has made at DAL in the last 5 months as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic as WN is currently only operating 157 daily departures out of DAL, which is 38 fewer daily departures than the 195 daily departures that WN normally operates out of DAL.

I had also mentioned that there are a few more nonstop routes such as DAL-DTW/MSP/LGA/SLC that could be added by DL with there being more room to accommodate additional DL flights at DAL with the cuts that WN has made at DAL due to the COVID-19 pandemic. DL was also wanting to add 8 additional daily departures out of DAL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic if it could gain access to additional gates at DAL, but I am unsure if DL will add additional flights out of DAL with DL having dropped plans to resume DFW-SEA nonstop service, DL cutting back on DFW-ATL/CVG/LAX nonstop service, and DL making cuts on many other domestic routes in its network.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:58 pm

Well with WN Schedule release today LGB gets daily LAS and DEN service starting in January 2020 under its current 17 slots a day. I'm told expect more LGB announcements later this month after the slot lottery awards are announced. DEN and LAS daily service will most likely moved up to October 2020 start.

I'm gonna guess WN will be around 25 to 28 flights a day by March 2021.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Well with WN Schedule release today LGB gets daily LAS and DEN service starting in January 2020 under its current 17 slots a day. I'm told expect more LGB announcements later this month after the slot lottery awards are announced. DEN and LAS daily service will most likely moved up to October 2020 start.

I'm gonna guess WN will be around 25 to 28 flights a day by March 2021.

Flyguy


I was surprised to see WN try LGB-SJC and shocked to see them then add LGB-PHX/AUS. DL probably already has more LGB slots than it needs/wants and AA hinted at dropping service to something like 30 markets... I would not be at all surprised to see LGB be one of them. AA certainly has not hesitated to drop all service to LGB before! WN probably intends to gobble up as many mainline LGB slots as it can so that it can run a niche operation akin to those at other popular yet very much secondary Greater Los Angeles airports BUR and ONT. LGB-DAL/MDW and perhaps even LGB-BWI/Hawaii/PNW/RNO could very well be in the cards.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:33 pm

Would be interesting to see if WN started LGB-SEA/SLC.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
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Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:52 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Well with WN Schedule release today LGB gets daily LAS and DEN service starting in January 2020 under its current 17 slots a day. I'm told expect more LGB announcements later this month after the slot lottery awards are announced. DEN and LAS daily service will most likely moved up to October 2020 start.

I'm gonna guess WN will be around 25 to 28 flights a day by March 2021.

Flyguy


I was surprised to see WN try LGB-SJC and shocked to see them then add LGB-PHX/AUS. DL probably already has more LGB slots than it needs/wants and AA hinted at dropping service to something like 30 markets... I would not be at all surprised to see LGB be one of them. AA certainly has not hesitated to drop all service to LGB before! WN probably intends to gobble up as many mainline LGB slots as it can so that it can run a niche operation akin to those at other popular yet very much secondary Greater Los Angeles airports BUR and ONT. LGB-DAL/MDW and perhaps even LGB-BWI/Hawaii/PNW/RNO could very well be in the cards.


Craziest speculation I've been hearing is that pending the Slot lottery Along With Hawaii's 14 day quarantine situation with Covid is that come November 2020 WN LGB-PHX will increase by to 4 daily flights.
Along with this speculation Links LGB in becoming The LA/OC gateway to Hawaii.
Flight schedule speculation is.
LGB-HNL
14:00-18:00
HNL-LGB
11:05-19:30
Both flights connect daily to LIH,ITO,KOA

The Additional PHX flight
LGB-PHX
20:45-22:55
PHX-LGB
11:25-11:55
All flights 7378.

I believe PHX is WN ETOPS MX hanger Operations for monthly service checks. So if this speculation is true it makes totally sense.

I'm not holding my breath but. One never knows.

I'm sure the typical Anti LGB/WN will tear this apart in 3,2,1,
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
N649DL
Posts: 976
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:11 pm

One flight I saw as an option a few weeks ago flying back to L.A. on Delta from AUS was AUS-SLC-LGB and SLC-LGB was on a 319. I was shocked to see mainline on that route since it's always been a CR7 for as long as I can remember.
 
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OzarkD9S
Posts: 5679
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:21 pm

wnflyguy wrote:

Craziest speculation I've been hearing is that pending the Slot lottery Along With Hawaii's 14 day quarantine situation with Covid is that come November 2020 WN LGB-PHX will increase by to 4 daily flights.
Along with this speculation Links LGB in becoming The LA/OC gateway to Hawaii.
Flight schedule speculation is.
LGB-HNL
14:00-18:00
HNL-LGB
11:05-19:30
Both flights connect daily to LIH,ITO,KOA


You don't foresee an OGG flight? Given enough slots OGG might warrant it's own nonstop. Thoughts?
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:27 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

Craziest speculation I've been hearing is that pending the Slot lottery Along With Hawaii's 14 day quarantine situation with Covid is that come November 2020 WN LGB-PHX will increase by to 4 daily flights.
Along with this speculation Links LGB in becoming The LA/OC gateway to Hawaii.
Flight schedule speculation is.
LGB-HNL
14:00-18:00
HNL-LGB
11:05-19:30
Both flights connect daily to LIH,ITO,KOA


You don't foresee an OGG flight? Given enough slots OGG might warrant it's own nonstop. Thoughts?

I'm sure OGG will probably connect on the same flights.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised if LGB also got a OGG non stop.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 212
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:01 pm

N649DL wrote:
One flight I saw as an option a few weeks ago flying back to L.A. on Delta from AUS was AUS-SLC-LGB and SLC-LGB was on a 319. I was shocked to see mainline on that route since it's always been a CR7 for as long as I can remember.

DL’s LGB-SLC route hasn’t used a CR7 for at least three years. Pre COVID it was mostly E75 or an occasional CR9 operated by SkyWest. Last year every now and then DL would send a 738 or A319. Good to see mainline continue on that route.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4761
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:02 pm

In all honestly WN can probably kick Hawaiian out of Long Beach if they start service. B6 departure is a huge crush for Hawaiian. I don't think they even have a local staff yet to restart? Even if Hawaiian restarts I don't give them lasting too long. We might see a rush of people using b6 points on Hawaiian but after that point burn I don't see it working out for them.

Alaska has zero to gain by starting long beach. Why would they want to reduce their own lax and sna service. Long beach offers them nothing.

JetBlue wanted a focus city , SNA runway is too short and they never could get enough slots. LGB was a great alternative and still near millions of people. B6 had a reason to make long beach work. It fit their needs, the city council just didn't value them or a focus city at all. An airline like Alaska would just dillute their own SNA and LAX operations. Even if you live in long Beach the commute to SNA is pretty easy most of the time . Alaska won't add long beach they need to focus on LAX right now, and SNA serves the people as a great alternative south and east.
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 212
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:07 pm

As far as Hawaii service goes, I just don’t see HA every coming back to LGB. Also WN making LGB their LA area airport to connect to the islands makes no sense. They can only grow so much their and would be limited on connections as swell. Also why would someone that lives in LA or north drive to LGB to fly on WN when there are probably five or six other airlines that can get you there from LAX. You’d most likely be driving past LAX just to get to LGB.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 726
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:35 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I'm not holding my breath but. One never knows.

I'm sure the typical Anti LGB/WN will tear this apart in 3,2,1,
Flyguy


You rang? yes, do not hold your breath on these.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5957
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:40 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
I'm not holding my breath but. One never knows.

I'm sure the typical Anti LGB/WN will tear this apart in 3,2,1,
Flyguy


You rang? yes, do not hold your breath on these.



That is an understatement.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 619
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:50 pm

Why on earth would LGB become the Hawaii gateway for WN. 25 slots or less isn’t going to give them much connecting feed and that would all have to be before the rumored above 1400 departure time. 1400 departure time is less than ideal, you lose an entire day to travel when the early morning HA flight has you on the beach Cocktail in hand by 1pm. If the LGB buildup rumor is true might as well build a nice cozy firepit on the air side of the terminal and just shovel cash into it.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4761
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:00 pm

I bet you reality is WN is considering a single HNL flight. Not that they are going to offer some large Hawaiian operation out of the airport.

One single 737 to HNL is believable , anything more then that I think the rumor got heard wrong or changed like in telephone(the game)

If WN adds HNL I can't see Hawaiian coming back. Too many hurdles, why bother especially in a pandemic. B6 being gone is a huge issue for them. WN might want to start HNL asap just to ensure that Hawaiian vacates.
 
User avatar
airportugal310
Posts: 3660
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 12:49 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:08 pm

The rumor mill at LGB is so pathetically terrible it would make most pilot/flight attendants (the source of the usual crap rumors) BLUSH at how off base they are
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:09 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
In all honestly WN can probably kick Hawaiian out of Long Beach if they start service. B6 departure is a huge crush for Hawaiian. I don't think they even have a local staff yet to restart? Even if Hawaiian restarts I don't give them lasting too long. We might see a rush of people using b6 points on Hawaiian but after that point burn I don't see it working out for them.

Alaska has zero to gain by starting long beach. Why would they want to reduce their own lax and sna service. Long beach offers them nothing.

JetBlue wanted a focus city , SNA runway is too short and they never could get enough slots. LGB was a great alternative and still near millions of people. B6 had a reason to make long beach work. It fit their needs, the city council just didn't value them or a focus city at all. An airline like Alaska would just dillute their own SNA and LAX operations. Even if you live in long Beach the commute to SNA is pretty easy most of the time . Alaska won't add long beach they need to focus on LAX right now, and SNA serves the people as a great alternative south and east.

Actually because of the departure and arrival times into LGB Hawaiian actually had 1.08% JetBlue connections During it's entire time it flew LGB-HNL-LGB. And those Connections were passengers Reroutes the only time HA took a MX bird strike Delayed out of LGB.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:30 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
As far as Hawaii service goes, I just don’t see HA every coming back to LGB. Also WN making LGB their LA area airport to connect to the islands makes no sense. They can only grow so much their and would be limited on connections as swell. Also why would someone that lives in LA or north drive to LGB to fly on WN when there are probably five or six other airlines that can get you there from LAX. You’d most likely be driving past LAX just to get to LGB.


WN has stated many times it's west cost feed to Hawaii is built off it's strong Rapid rewards California catchment area. This Same reason why they have no current plans to start Red Eyes from Hawaii.
LAX Terminal redo added a lot of Square footage for passenger holding area's but it also eliminate one Gate to achieve Terminal 1.5
With ETOPS turns at a minimum of 75 mins each LAX has very little Gate flight schedule room to achieve Hawaii turns. They could bus passengers to TB for Hawaii flights but that's another headache for domestic operations. Also LAX is a bloodbath for Hawaii service.
BUR and SNA will require MAX7 ETOPS for runway performance if it's achievable without payload restrictions going west.
ONT in the Sticks compared LGB when you look at the overall local catchment area.

WN has said MAX8ETOPS will eventually serve LAS and PHX.
MAX7ETOPS is said to be able to achieve DEN-Hawaii.
Those would probably be better for network connections.
And honestly UA,DL,AA have better east of the Rockies network connections offering non stops from ORD,DFW,IAH,DEN,ATL and SLC.
Only that true committed WN frugal travelers will make the WN fun bus tweak across the WN system.

LGB will probably be a Gate way but not a Huge connecting Gate way.
LGB has Access to 5 freeways that feed the airport.
405,710,605,91 and 22.
Cheapest parking in SoCal and quick and easy curb to flight times in SoCal.

Remember WN 20 times bigger in California than JetBlue so the possibilities are greater.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
11C
Posts: 160
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:46 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
As far as Hawaii service goes, I just don’t see HA every coming back to LGB. Also WN making LGB their LA area airport to connect to the islands makes no sense. They can only grow so much their and would be limited on connections as swell. Also why would someone that lives in LA or north drive to LGB to fly on WN when there are probably five or six other airlines that can get you there from LAX. You’d most likely be driving past LAX just to get to LGB.


WN has stated many times it's west cost feed to Hawaii is built off it's strong Rapid rewards California catchment area. This Same reason why they have no current plans to start Red Eyes from Hawaii.
LAX Terminal redo added a lot of Square footage for passenger holding area's but it also eliminate one Gate to achieve Terminal 1.5
With ETOPS turns at a minimum of 75 mins each LAX has very little Gate flight schedule room to achieve Hawaii turns. They could bus passengers to TB for Hawaii flights but that's another headache for domestic operations. Also LAX is a bloodbath for Hawaii service.
BUR and SNA will require MAX7 ETOPS for runway performance if it's achievable without payload restrictions going west.
ONT in the Sticks compared LGB when you look at the overall local catchment area.

WN has said MAX8ETOPS will eventually serve LAS and PHX.
MAX7ETOPS is said to be able to achieve DEN-Hawaii.
Those would probably be better for network connections.
And honestly UA,DL,AA have better east of the Rockies network connections offering non stops from ORD,DFW,IAH,DEN,ATL and SLC.
Only that true committed WN frugal travelers will make the WN fun bus tweak across the WN system.

LGB will probably be a Gate way but not a Huge connecting Gate way.
LGB has Access to 5 freeways that feed the airport.
405,710,605,91 and 22.
Cheapest parking in SoCal and quick and easy curb to flight times in SoCal.

Remember WN 20 times bigger in California than JetBlue so the possibilities are greater.

Flyguy

I shouldn’t have read it that way, but when you mentioned those five freeways, and cheapest parking in SoCal, I thought you meant the freeways for a second.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:44 pm

Well Saturday morning talk with my LGB friends sounds like Sun Country and Frontier have submitted applications for the slot Lottery.
This Frontier could add a lot of dots from LGB especially if they use slots less than day to increase destination. Like use one slot to fly let's say LGB-SEA Tuesday Thursday Saturday LGB-GEG Monday Friday and LGB-BOI Wednesday Sunday ECT ect.

I'm wondering if Sun Country will be part of the Amazon Flying Since it's scaled back it's ULCC so much during this pandemic.
Otherwise Sun Country has made a go at Hawaii flying in the past I wonder if they would try it from LGB.

So this would probably end up with
Southwest getting 5 slots
Frontier getting 6 slots
Sun Country getting 6 slots.

Happy COVID Saturday Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
MDGLongBeach
Posts: 212
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:03 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:33 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Well Saturday morning talk with my LGB friends sounds like Sun Country and Frontier have submitted applications for the slot Lottery.
This Frontier could add a lot of dots from LGB especially if they use slots less than day to increase destination. Like use one slot to fly let's say LGB-SEA Tuesday Thursday Saturday LGB-GEG Monday Friday and LGB-BOI Wednesday Sunday ECT ect.

I'm wondering if Sun Country will be part of the Amazon Flying Since it's scaled back it's ULCC so much during this pandemic.
Otherwise Sun Country has made a go at Hawaii flying in the past I wonder if they would try it from LGB.

So this would probably end up with
Southwest getting 5 slots
Frontier getting 6 slots
Sun Country getting 6 slots.

Happy COVID Saturday Flyguy


I've heard a few things about F9 submitting an app for service here as well. Hard to call what destination since SEA isn't a big market for them and the DEN market is already taken by WN. I guess we'll have to see.

When will we hear officially about the results of the slot lottery?


Random thought: There's no telling what Delta will do considering they dropped LGB this summer simply because it wasn't worth keeping, so that may signify that DL doesn't value the airport that much. Maybe we'll see them drop the 5 or so slots they acquired earlier and those will be dispersed accordingly. Though, in this case, it'll mean that LGB will still be without a transcon flight (as DL was rumored to start SEA/ATL with those slots) and that may open the opportunity for an airline like SCX or F9 to try to connect LGB to a large east coast hub, as we already know that if done right, can be profitable.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:53 pm

MDGLongBeach wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Well Saturday morning talk with my LGB friends sounds like Sun Country and Frontier have submitted applications for the slot Lottery.
This Frontier could add a lot of dots from LGB especially if they use slots less than day to increase destination. Like use one slot to fly let's say LGB-SEA Tuesday Thursday Saturday LGB-GEG Monday Friday and LGB-BOI Wednesday Sunday ECT ect.

I'm wondering if Sun Country will be part of the Amazon Flying Since it's scaled back it's ULCC so much during this pandemic.
Otherwise Sun Country has made a go at Hawaii flying in the past I wonder if they would try it from LGB.

So this would probably end up with
Southwest getting 5 slots
Frontier getting 6 slots
Sun Country getting 6 slots.

Happy COVID Saturday Flyguy


I've heard a few things about F9 submitting an app for service here as well. Hard to call what destination since SEA isn't a big market for them and the DEN market is already taken by WN. I guess we'll have to see.

When will we hear officially about the results of the slot lottery?


Random thought: There's no telling what Delta will do considering they dropped LGB this summer simply because it wasn't worth keeping, so that may signify that DL doesn't value the airport that much. Maybe we'll see them drop the 5 or so slots they acquired earlier and those will be dispersed accordingly. Though, in this case, it'll mean that LGB will still be without a transcon flight (as DL was rumored to start SEA/ATL with those slots) and that may open the opportunity for an airline like SCX or F9 to try to connect LGB to a large east coast hub, as we already know that if done right, can be profitable.


Another source said it's Spirit and Frontier.
Either of these will definitely be a thorn in the side of Southwest at LGB.
If WN gets a minimum of 5 slots that will just seal the deal to just Add LAS and DEN permanently to the schedule. Knowing that SJC has been Horrible the whole time for WN they probably could just drop it altogether beefing up a additional flight to PHX,DEN and LAS in the future.
I Can see this possibility.
5 OAK,4 SMF,4 LAS, 4 PHX, 4 DEN ,1 AUS.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4761
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:02 pm

Frontier would make sense to me. If they can get some free marketing or anything like temporary reduced fees they would try it again. They really didn't do well the first time , but different world. They also don't mind a quick exit if things don't meet expectations.

Spirit seems unlikely but it's a crazy world they must be maybe expecting some new entrant offers? Can see anything in 2020.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4761
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:10 pm

Loss of JetBlue late-night fines could hamper future library budgets. Councilman Daryl Supernaw said he was surprised to see JetBlue listed in the budgetary report related to the library, and offered a rebuke of the loss of fine money being seen as “a challenge.”

Long Beach has the most out of touch politicians. JetBlue’s late fee money could equal between $400,000 and $600,000 annually. Money I'm sure they will have zero plan to replace except want to tax some other business now for it.

WN is not gonna be JetBlue and put up with trailers, vending machines, pay fines, and do everything to make it work. IMHO WN whole plan was to be the dominant carrier and arm twist for lower fees on everything from the city and have a real advantage with a low operating costs airport they dominated. Still might happen long term. If new entrants get any incentives airlines will chase anything right now especially the ULCCs

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