Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5027
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Confirmed: British Airways next US route - PDX

Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:15 pm

With rumors that BA may announce new TATL service (likely PDX), I think it makes sense to share this article about where BA's next US target could be.

https://www.anna.aero/2019/12/17/britis ... -st-louis/

Image
Image

It appears that Cincy & STL have a strong case for BA service
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
BA777FO
Posts: 554
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:02 pm

Apparently BA looked at Cincinnati a couple of years ago and seemed confident that yields would be strong but volume might not be enough - that pretty much ties in with what the table shows. I believe they were pretty close to starting it but ender up being a run off between Nashville and Cincinnati and Nashville won out.

I'd say STL is an obvious one given the former AA hub and previous long-served route to London before de-hubbing by AA.

I'm not convinced many, if any, new routes are coming - IAG has stated BA is cutting back its capacity growth forecasts and has trimmed several long haul frequencies for summer 2020. The refit of the 777s is a convenient excuse to withdraw capacity out of the market too.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 815
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:11 pm

Cleveland and St Louis seem the obvious choices but could each city fill a 788?
That is the smallest gauge BA currently has.

Back in the day CO flew the route and struggled to fill a 757. TWA used a 767-200 and did okay, but had a lot of feed into St. Louis.

BA could probably make both routes work long term but I think it would be more difficult than the numbers might indicate.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2519
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:32 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Cleveland and St Louis seem the obvious choices but could each city fill a 788?
That is the smallest gauge BA currently has.

Back in the day CO flew the route and struggled to fill a 757. TWA used a 767-200 and did okay, but had a lot of feed into St. Louis.

BA could probably make both routes work long term but I think it would be more difficult than the numbers might indicate.


How does Charleston compare with CLE and STL? Could they be supported with a seasonal 2x weekly like CHS? I wouldn’t be surprised if heavy subsidies are offered for a TATL flight.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5027
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:43 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Cleveland and St Louis seem the obvious choices but could each city fill a 788?
That is the smallest gauge BA currently has.

Back in the day CO flew the route and struggled to fill a 757. TWA used a 767-200 and did okay, but had a lot of feed into St. Louis.

BA could probably make both routes work long term but I think it would be more difficult than the numbers might indicate.


BA777FO wrote:
Apparently BA looked at Cincinnati a couple of years ago and seemed confident that yields would be strong but volume might not be enough - that pretty much ties in with what the table shows. I believe they were pretty close to starting it but ender up being a run off between Nashville and Cincinnati and Nashville won out.

I'd say STL is an obvious one given the former AA hub and previous long-served route to London before de-hubbing by AA.

I'm not convinced many, if any, new routes are coming - IAG has stated BA is cutting back its capacity growth forecasts and has trimmed several long haul frequencies for summer 2020. The refit of the 777s is a convenient excuse to withdraw capacity out of the market too.


It's worth noting that including market stimulation from the new BA flight, PIT only sits at 38,400 passengers to London and 279,000 passengers to all of Europe, so not much larger than any of the cities listed(smaller than STL) even including market stimulation.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
BA777FO
Posts: 554
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:54 pm

I think the former US Airways hub, therefore AAdvantage population of PIT, swayed the route for PIT. Plus BA had previous history in PIT whereas it's never served CVG or STL with its own metal. That's why I'd be surprised to see BA not launch STL next if it has the airframes and/or slots to spare. But with the 787 engine issues I'd be surprised to see any new routes announced - it can't fly its current program as it is with two daily flights currently wet leased.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1780
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:55 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Cleveland and St Louis seem the obvious choices but could each city fill a 788?
That is the smallest gauge BA currently has.

Back in the day CO flew the route and struggled to fill a 757. TWA used a 767-200 and did okay, but had a lot of feed into St. Louis.

BA could probably make both routes work long term but I think it would be more difficult than the numbers might indicate.


CO didn't struggle to fill a 757 on CLE-LGW (it was moved to LHR in 2008) and then dropped. The CLE-LHR route was axed because CO wanted to use the slot for an additional EWR flight. That said, the 757/A321 is the right plane for a Cleveland TATL route and I just don't see BA adding a flight to CLE from LHR.
 
amc737
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:56 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:21 pm

It shows the power of a hub in sustaining a trans-Atlantic services. St Louis, Cincinnati and Cleveland are the only US cities that have had non-stop direct to London previouslly that don't anymore (I exclude Anchorage for obvious reasons). TWA used a daily 747-100 to Gatwick in the summer season reverting to a 767-200 in the winter. One year it was a twice daily service 767-200 in summer before it became a 767-300 route and got axed after the merge. It surprising that a route that had a daily 747 service to London now has no flight there at all. Likewise Cincinnati had a daily service to Gatwick for years, at one point was a daily MD-11 and now there is no service to London.

It has taken many years for these former hubs to re-gain service to London, US Airways ended Pittsburgh Gatwick in 2004 and it did not see a service to London until this year. (it did have a service to Paris for some years), likewise there was a period of many years between Nashville losing its American Airlines service to Gatwick and British Airways starting.

That means any new route is going to be subject to BA having 787's available which as been pointed out may not be the case. I would be surprised if BA started Portland as it doesn't fit the profile of the most recent route launches - BA has gone for routes without any competition Austin, Nashville, New Orleans etc. Portland already has a seasonal Delta to Heathow, in fact in most cases BA has not had any other trans-Atlantic competition - Portland also has a route to Amsterdam. I would therefore say if any route was launched it would be St Louis.

amc737
 
dfwjim1
Posts: 2410
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:52 pm

Being an AA hub perhaps Charlotte would be a candidate.
 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:59 pm

STL is too much of a dumpster fire to get an incentives package together to attract BA.
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2284
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:18 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
STL is too much of a dumpster fire to get an incentives package together to attract BA.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
We had a 5 million dollar package that was put together but had to be canceled because those in charge of it were arrested on a corruption scandal for an unrelated issue.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
digitalcloud
Posts: 160
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:24 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Cleveland and St Louis seem the obvious choices but could each city fill a 788?


It's not about filling. It's about revenue which is what the data above indicates.
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2284
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:36 pm

digitalcloud wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Cleveland and St Louis seem the obvious choices but could each city fill a 788?


It's not about filling. It's about revenue which is what the data above indicates.

Yup, as WOW proved, any city with a runway can fill an airplane going to Europe.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
ncflyer
Posts: 1373
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2000 7:03 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:39 pm

Personally I feel that CLE being so close to PIT would be disqualifying for BA, even if they had a plane. 2 hours, no risk of traffic , no doubt many Clevelanders drive to PIT for that flight. Let alone the fact that CLE doesn't seem to have any incentive money to dangle.
 
User avatar
flyPIT
Posts: 1871
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:21 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:00 pm

A few points about that article.

First, here is the headline:

"British Airways’ next US airports likely Cincinnati and St Louis"

Anna Aero ran a similar piece several years ago with similar data analysis. The headline declared "New Orleans top of British Airways US to-do list". As it turned out, MSY was not at the top of BA's to-do list; both SJC and AUS were launched before MSY. So right off the bat take some of this with a grain of salt.

Second. if you look at all of BA's recent US additions, they all have a theme of being a trendy city or one with a growing tech sector, or a combination of both. I just don't see that with STL or CVG.

I think at this point PDX is a no brainer, then perhaps some more CHS type stuff.

Midwestindy wrote:
It's worth noting that including market stimulation from the new BA flight, PIT only sits at 38,400 passengers to London and 279,000 passengers to all of Europe, so not much larger than any of the cities listed(smaller than STL) even including market stimulation.

From the article: "Data based on the 12 months to September 2019.". So for 8 months of the analysis there was no market stimulation at PIT; the first full month of service was May 2019. Also, the PIT airport Authority previously conducted a data mining study that showed significant leakage to IAD.
FLYi
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2284
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:40 pm

^^ well you did have stimulation from Wow which definitely bumped the numbers up a lot.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5027
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:44 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Second. if you look at all of BA's recent US additions, they all have a theme of being a trendy city or one with a growing tech sector, or a combination of both. I just don't see that with STL or CVG.


I don't see PIT being that much different from STL, other than one having a more organized coalition for getting TATL flights.

flyPIT wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
It's worth noting that including market stimulation from the new BA flight, PIT only sits at 38,400 passengers to London and 279,000 passengers to all of Europe, so not much larger than any of the cities listed(smaller than STL) even including market stimulation.

From the article: "Data based on the 12 months to September 2019.". So for 8 months of the analysis there was no market stimulation at PIT; the first full month of service was May 2019. Also, the PIT airport Authority previously conducted a data mining study that showed significant leakage to IAD.


Not that it matters, but the flight started on April 2nd so the first full month was April, since it wouldn't have operated on the 1st anyway per the days of the week it runs. Regardless that is still market stimulation whether it is 2 months or 12.

STL, CLE, and IND all have large amounts of leakage as well.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
LHRFlyer
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2010 12:50 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:14 pm

BA normally launches a big New Year sales campaign before Christmas (as Virgin has just done). I expect if an announcement is not made over the next few days, it's not happening.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:21 pm

Wouldn't be a new LHR market, but I could see AA swapping the RDU-LHR flight with BA. I'm actually kind of surprised that hasn't happened already since RDU is no longer a hub or focus city for AA. I know that AA/BA are JV partners, but operationally, I could see it making more sense for BA metal to fly it.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
User avatar
flyPIT
Posts: 1871
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:21 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:34 pm

stl07 wrote:
^^ well you did have stimulation from Wow which definitely bumped the numbers up a lot.

Stimulation to London from WW? Very little I'd say. To Europe overall? Sure but STL, CVG, and CLE had WW as well so I'm not sure why PIT is being singled out.


Midwestindy wrote:
flyPIT wrote:
I don't see PIT being that much different from STL, other than one having a more organized coalition for getting TATL flights.

Not that it matters, but the flight started on April 2nd so the first full month was April, since it wouldn't have operated on the 1st anyway per the days of the week it runs. Regardless that is still market stimulation whether it is 2 months or 12.

STL, CLE, and IND all have large amounts of leakage as well.


I'll disagree on your first point. On the second point about leakage to London specifically... "Each year, 33,000 passengers fly between Pittsburgh and Heathrow in London, and 11,000 Pittsburghers fly to London from elsewhere — a total of 44,000 just between those two cities, according to airport statistics. “"
https://www.pittsburghmagazine.com/wheels-up-whats-next-for-pit/

That's a significant amount of leakage. Where are the numbers for STL and IND? CLE I'll give you given its proximity to DTW and PIT.
FLYi
 
stlgph
Posts: 11195
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:40 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
Wouldn't be a new LHR market, but I could see AA swapping the RDU-LHR flight with BA. I'm actually kind of surprised that hasn't happened already since RDU is no longer a hub or focus city for AA. I know that AA/BA are JV partners, but operationally, I could see it making more sense for BA metal to fly it.


Simple. AA doesn't want to give up the revenue that flight brings in. It used to be nice and handsomely bankrolled by GlaxoKlineSmith but now you have a good 20 plus companies from the UK with operations in the RDU Triangle.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
mwhcvt
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 2:01 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:50 pm

Kind of makes you consider where a small number of A321XLR could come into play here as a preamble to sending in a B788 on these shorter routes? Especially as if they didn’t work out they could be moved to other airlines within the group or even sent onto African routes that have lost BA wide body service in the last decade or so
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:04 pm

flyPIT wrote:

I'll disagree on your first point. On the second point about leakage to London specifically... "Each year, 33,000 passengers fly between Pittsburgh and Heathrow in London, and 11,000 Pittsburghers fly to London from elsewhere — a total of 44,000 just between those two cities, according to airport statistics. “"
https://www.pittsburghmagazine.com/wheels-up-whats-next-for-pit/

That's a significant amount of leakage. Where are the numbers for STL and IND? CLE I'll give you given its proximity to DTW and PIT.


Without explaining their methodology, I'd take that with a grain of salt. I'm sure like every airport there's some leakage, but 25% seems extremely high. Especially since the closet airport that has daily LON service is 4+ hours away. Perhaps they're not properly counting connections.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
jspurg15
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:04 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:04 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
STL is too much of a dumpster fire to get an incentives package together to attract BA.

Facts
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5027
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:10 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flyPIT wrote:
I don't see PIT being that much different from STL, other than one having a more organized coalition for getting TATL flights.

Not that it matters, but the flight started on April 2nd so the first full month was April, since it wouldn't have operated on the 1st anyway per the days of the week it runs. Regardless that is still market stimulation whether it is 2 months or 12.

STL, CLE, and IND all have large amounts of leakage as well.


I'll disagree on your first point. On the second point about leakage to London specifically... "Each year, 33,000 passengers fly between Pittsburgh and Heathrow in London, and 11,000 Pittsburghers fly to London from elsewhere — a total of 44,000 just between those two cities, according to airport statistics. “"
https://www.pittsburghmagazine.com/wheels-up-whats-next-for-pit/

That's a significant amount of leakage. Where are the numbers for STL and IND? CLE I'll give you given its proximity to DTW and PIT.


Assuming the leakage numbers are out there for STL & IND, it wouldn't be released to the public, as I have never seen PDEW to LON released by either airport

IND-ORD is much shorter than PIT-IAD, so it is safe to assume that IND would leak to ORD. STL is a longer drive, but driving to ORD from STL is quite common. Point is, PIT is not the only airport with leakage.

Back to the point at hand, given the data above, it appears that if STL can get the incentive money in place they could be one of the next markets BA tries given how they fit a similar profile to PIT.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:11 pm

stlgph wrote:

Simple. AA doesn't want to give up the revenue that flight brings in. It used to be nice and handsomely bankrolled by GlaxoKlineSmith but now you have a good 20 plus companies from the UK with operations in the RDU Triangle.


That flight was never "bankrolled by GSK" and decades later some a.netters seem to refuse to accept that... :lol:
Last edited by RDUDDJI on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
N292UX
Posts: 527
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:20 pm

My optimistic answer is either STL, CVG, MCI, or CLE (finally), but more realistically, I'd expect CLT, MSP, RDU, CMH, or DTW in that order of likelihood. CLT seems inevitable and MSP seems like a place BA would eventually add, partially to fill the whole upper midwest region.

If BA continues to follow the strategy they have with places like CHS and MSY, then I would say MEM, ORF, and PWM could enter the race. I feel like MEM could definitely fill up a 787 a few times a week, as could ORF and PWM in peak seasons.

From the way STL has been robbed of BA multiple times recently, I'll (optimistically) predict BA's next destination will end up being CVG.
Last edited by N292UX on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:21 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
IND-ORD is much shorter than PIT-IAD, so it is safe to assume that IND would leak to ORD.


That is a horrible drive (speaking as a former Chicago resident who lost years of their life in traffic on the Kennedy). ORD is on the opposite side of Chicago. I can't imagine why anyone would put themselves through that instead of just taking a connection (which likely would be cheaper anyway).

Sure some leakage happens, but I'd say likely only due to IROPS.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:22 pm

Dupe
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
N292UX
Posts: 527
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:24 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IND-ORD is much shorter than PIT-IAD, so it is safe to assume that IND would leak to ORD.


That is a horrible drive (speaking as a former Chicago resident who lost years of their life in traffic on the Kennedy). ORD is on the opposite side of Chicago. I can't imagine why anyone would put themselves through that instead of just taking a connection (which likely would be cheaper anyway).

Sure some leakage happens, but I'd say likely only due to IROPS.

As someone who is from the DC region and goes to school in Indianapolis, I know multiple people from the Chicago area, they will also say it is a miserable drive from Indy to Chicago. I actually know a handful of people who sometimes just fly from IND to MDW.

Driving from DC to Pittsburgh isn't that bad since I believe that most of the drive is through quieter ares in WV/PA, so traffic isn't as bad as Indy to Chicago.
 
stlgph
Posts: 11195
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:25 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
stlgph wrote:

Simple. AA doesn't want to give up the revenue that flight brings in. It used to be nice and handsomely bankrolled by GlaxoKlineSmith but now you have a good 20 plus companies from the UK with operations in the RDU Triangle.


smh... That flight was never "bankrolled by GSK" which some a.netters seem to refuse to accept...


Whatever you say since the whole reason it came to fruition in the first place was because of ...........GlaxoKlineSmith's commitment to ticket purchases.

but you keep posting just to be posting. we love comedy.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2284
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:28 pm

flyPIT wrote:
stl07 wrote:
^^ well you did have stimulation from Wow which definitely bumped the numbers up a lot.

Stimulation to London from WW? Very little I'd say. To Europe overall? Sure but STL, CVG, and CLE had WW as well so I'm not sure why PIT is being singled out.


Midwestindy wrote:
flyPIT wrote:
I don't see PIT being that much different from STL, other than one having a more organized coalition for getting TATL flights.

Not that it matters, but the flight started on April 2nd so the first full month was April, since it wouldn't have operated on the 1st anyway per the days of the week it runs. Regardless that is still market stimulation whether it is 2 months or 12.

STL, CLE, and IND all have large amounts of leakage as well.


I'll disagree on your first point. On the second point about leakage to London specifically... "Each year, 33,000 passengers fly between Pittsburgh and Heathrow in London, and 11,000 Pittsburghers fly to London from elsewhere — a total of 44,000 just between those two cities, according to airport statistics. “"
https://www.pittsburghmagazine.com/wheels-up-whats-next-for-pit/

That's a significant amount of leakage. Where are the numbers for STL and IND? CLE I'll give you given its proximity to DTW and PIT.

Sure other cities had wow, but not in the reported period. PIT is being picked on because it already has a flight so some people's claims about lack of traffic from STL and CLE are unsubstantiated because PIT had similar/less traffic and got a flight.
Last edited by stl07 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
BA777FO
Posts: 554
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:30 pm

stlgph wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Wouldn't be a new LHR market, but I could see AA swapping the RDU-LHR flight with BA. I'm actually kind of surprised that hasn't happened already since RDU is no longer a hub or focus city for AA. I know that AA/BA are JV partners, but operationally, I could see it making more sense for BA metal to fly it.


Simple. AA doesn't want to give up the revenue that flight brings in. It used to be nice and handsomely bankrolled by GlaxoKlineSmith but now you have a good 20 plus companies from the UK with operations in the RDU Triangle.


AA and BA (and Iberia) are in a JBA - they share revenue from their transatlantic operations so it really doesn't matter who sells the ticket or who operates it.

That said, AA recently went double daily to LHR from CLT - like with DFW, most of the traffic comes from the US-side so AA metal makes more sense perks-wise. Operationally RDU does seem like it would be better off with BA but again, highest point of sale may well mean AA is better placed.

MEM is a good shout for a new addition. But I don't think BA will be adding any new long haul routes for 2020 anyway.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5027
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:33 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IND-ORD is much shorter than PIT-IAD, so it is safe to assume that IND would leak to ORD.


That is a horrible drive (speaking as a former Chicago resident who lost years of their life in traffic on the Kennedy). ORD is on the opposite side of Chicago. I can't imagine why anyone would put themselves through that instead of just taking a connection (which likely would be cheaper anyway).

Sure some leakage happens, but I'd say likely only due to IROPS.


I have been stuck on Kennedy multiple times this year, not fun, took me an hour and 30 minutes 2 weeks ago to get from O'hare to Mag Mile.

N292UX wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IND-ORD is much shorter than PIT-IAD, so it is safe to assume that IND would leak to ORD.


That is a horrible drive (speaking as a former Chicago resident who lost years of their life in traffic on the Kennedy). ORD is on the opposite side of Chicago. I can't imagine why anyone would put themselves through that instead of just taking a connection (which likely would be cheaper anyway).

Sure some leakage happens, but I'd say likely only due to IROPS.

As someone who is from the DC region and goes to school in Indianapolis, I know multiple people from the Chicago area, they will also say it is a miserable drive from Indy to Chicago. I actually know a handful of people who sometimes just fly from IND to MDW.

Driving from DC to Pittsburgh isn't that bad since I believe that most of the drive is through quieter ares in WV/PA, so traffic isn't as bad as Indy to Chicago.


I've done the Indy to Ohare drive a couple times in the past year or two, but never not gone on 294, so I haven't hit unusual traffic yet. I have family from overseas who fly into ORD for the cheap fares and nonstops, and take one of the shuttles down to either Lafayette or Indianapolis.

Driving culture is very common in the midwest.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
luckyone
Posts: 2995
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:34 pm

ncflyer wrote:
Personally I feel that CLE being so close to PIT would be disqualifying for BA, even if they had a plane. 2 hours, no risk of traffic , no doubt many Clevelanders drive to PIT for that flight. Let alone the fact that CLE doesn't seem to have any incentive money to dangle.

I'm inclined to agree with you. It's an easy drive. When I lived in Cleveland I frequently found myself getting cheaper flights from PIT, DTW, or CMH if there wasn't a nonstop from CLE as even though they are all about two hours' drive, it actually saves you time when you factor in the connection time (which never seemed to be convenient coming out of CLE) and the checkin time. It's likely more than just Clevelanders, too. PIT is within easy range of pretty much all of Northeastern Ohio, and those passengers are equidistant to CMH, CLE, and PIT. It wouldn't shock me if that flight attracted folks from Columbus either, with my point being that these passengers likely bolster the PIT flight, and to start a flight from CLE would probably result in both CLE and PIT not doing well.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:46 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

I have been stuck on Kennedy multiple times this year, not fun, took me an hour and 30 minutes 2 weeks ago to get from O'hare to Mag Mile.


I recall a 3 hour 18mi commute from ORD to Ohio St. once during snow. Good times. The Kennedy is miserable almost all the time, but especially in rush hours.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3431
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:49 pm

N292UX wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IND-ORD is much shorter than PIT-IAD, so it is safe to assume that IND would leak to ORD.


That is a horrible drive (speaking as a former Chicago resident who lost years of their life in traffic on the Kennedy). ORD is on the opposite side of Chicago. I can't imagine why anyone would put themselves through that instead of just taking a connection (which likely would be cheaper anyway).

Sure some leakage happens, but I'd say likely only due to IROPS.

As someone who is from the DC region and goes to school in Indianapolis, I know multiple people from the Chicago area, they will also say it is a miserable drive from Indy to Chicago. I actually know a handful of people who sometimes just fly from IND to MDW.

Driving from DC to Pittsburgh isn't that bad since I believe that most of the drive is through quieter ares in WV/PA, so traffic isn't as bad as Indy to Chicago.


For the Indy part - while I've done the drive to ORD before, it's not something that I would do normally. It's not the traffic part (You don't really have to get on Kennedy to go to ORD anyway...just drive I-294), but rather, 99% of the time a ORD-xxx non-stop is not that much cheaper than IND-ORD-xxx (Plus I can always just buy a separate IND-ORD ticket as long as I leave plenty of time for connection at ORD).

I doubt that many people drive from PIT to IAD, either - it's a drive through some fairly mountainous terrain, compare to the flat (and boring) drive between Indy and Chicago.

The "leakage" has always been a highly overrated thing on a.net. Unless you're in some small city/large town (i.e. the like of FWA or SBN in Indiana) with relatively limited amount of flight option (thus more expensive tickets), you just fly from your local airport, period.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:59 pm

stlgph wrote:

Whatever you say since the whole reason it came to fruition in the first place was because of ...........GlaxoKlineSmith's commitment to ticket purchases.

but you keep posting just to be posting. we love comedy.


Absolutely false, and btw it's "GlaxoSmithKline" not "GlaxoKlineSmith". Education: It was at one time guaranteed by the RTRP (which GSK was likely a member of at some point) but it is not anymore and hasn't been for close to two decades. There are plenty of threads on here that explain it if you really want to know or you can just continue to troll misinformation that has nothing to do with the discussion at hand.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2207
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:06 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
The "leakage" has always been a highly overrated thing on a.net. Unless you're in some small city/large town (i.e. the like of FWA or SBN in Indiana) with relatively limited amount of flight option (thus more expensive tickets), you just fly from your local airport, period.


I've been saying this for decades. The amount of peeps willing to drive 5+ hours (round trip), paying tolls, paying for parking, etc is extremely low and probably won't change noticeably with one new flight. Not to mention connecting itins are almost always cheaper than non-stops (if you're in a decent sized city like IND/PIT/CLE, etc.) because they give you competitive options.

I travel about 150 flights a year. I can't ever recall driving 3-4 hours to go to another airport when there's one 30 minutes away, even if it requires a connection.

Me thinks "Mass leakage" is another one of those A.net myths, like how cargo is so essential to pax airline finances...when the truth is it makes up less than 2% of revenues at pax carriers.

I think A.net could use a top 10 most regurgitated myths list.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
lhrnue
Posts: 356
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 2:47 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:23 pm

Would like to see Salt Lake City
 
TryToFlySomeday
Posts: 359
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:51 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:15 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
The "leakage" has always been a highly overrated thing on a.net. Unless you're in some small city/large town (i.e. the like of FWA or SBN in Indiana) with relatively limited amount of flight option (thus more expensive tickets), you just fly from your local airport, period.


I've been saying this for decades. The amount of peeps willing to drive 5+ hours (round trip), paying tolls, paying for parking, etc is extremely low and probably won't change noticeably with one new flight. Not to mention connecting itins are almost always cheaper than non-stops (if you're in a decent sized city like IND/PIT/CLE, etc.) because they give you competitive options.

I travel about 150 flights a year. I can't ever recall driving 3-4 hours to go to another airport when there's one 30 minutes away, even if it requires a connection.

Me thinks "Mass leakage" is another one of those A.net myths, like how cargo is so essential to pax airline finances...when the truth is it makes up less than 2% of revenues at pax carriers.

I think A.net could use a top 10 most regurgitated myths list.

My own aunt is an example of leakage. Maybe she’s in the minority. She drives from DTW area to ORD to catch a flight to Pakistan, though B6/QR offers tickets from DTW, as well as DL/EY via AMS
Pakistani American born and raised near CHI (ORD/MDW). Relatives are from both India and Pakistan
 
luckyone
Posts: 2995
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:23 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I have been stuck on Kennedy multiple times this year, not fun, took me an hour and 30 minutes 2 weeks ago to get from O'hare to Mag Mile.


I recall a 3 hour 18mi commute from ORD to Ohio St. once during snow. Good times. The Kennedy is miserable almost all the time, but especially in rush hours.

Dare I ask why neither of you took the Blue Line?
 
kavok
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:44 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
The "leakage" has always been a highly overrated thing on a.net. Unless you're in some small city/large town (i.e. the like of FWA or SBN in Indiana) with relatively limited amount of flight option (thus more expensive tickets), you just fly from your local airport, period.


I've been saying this for decades. The amount of peeps willing to drive 5+ hours (round trip), paying tolls, paying for parking, etc is extremely low and probably won't change noticeably with one new flight. Not to mention connecting itins are almost always cheaper than non-stops (if you're in a decent sized city like IND/PIT/CLE, etc.) because they give you competitive options.

I travel about 150 flights a year. I can't ever recall driving 3-4 hours to go to another airport when there's one 30 minutes away, even if it requires a connection.

Me thinks "Mass leakage" is another one of those A.net myths, like how cargo is so essential to pax airline finances...when the truth is it makes up less than 2% of revenues at pax carriers.

I think A.net could use a top 10 most regurgitated myths list.

My own aunt is an example of leakage. Maybe she’s in the minority. She drives from DTW area to ORD to catch a flight to Pakistan, though B6/QR offers tickets from DTW, as well as DL/EY via AMS


I too know a lot of people who will drive from DTW to YYZ (and to a lesser extent ORD) for international trips. The cost savings on a summer RT TATL flight can easily be over $500/person by using YYZ over DTW. If you are traveling with family (or in a group), and of each person is savings $500+, the cost/time of the drive is easily justified. This is a very real thing. This is much less prevalent for USA domestic flights, where the cost savings is not significant enough for most to justify traveling to another airport.

To clarify, these are pax seeking the lowest bargain fares they can find, so they are not the preferred customer base of many airlines. These pax also tend to exclude most businesses travelers who will fly local, as work is picking up the tab. But again, in DTW where most people have a car, leakage is a very real thing. I am sure it happens in other places too.
 
HPAEAA
Posts: 1141
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 7:24 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:00 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
The "leakage" has always been a highly overrated thing on a.net. Unless you're in some small city/large town (i.e. the like of FWA or SBN in Indiana) with relatively limited amount of flight option (thus more expensive tickets), you just fly from your local airport, period.


I've been saying this for decades. The amount of peeps willing to drive 5+ hours (round trip), paying tolls, paying for parking, etc is extremely low and probably won't change noticeably with one new flight. Not to mention connecting itins are almost always cheaper than non-stops (if you're in a decent sized city like IND/PIT/CLE, etc.) because they give you competitive options.

I travel about 150 flights a year. I can't ever recall driving 3-4 hours to go to another airport when there's one 30 minutes away, even if it requires a connection.

Me thinks "Mass leakage" is another one of those A.net myths, like how cargo is so essential to pax airline finances...when the truth is it makes up less than 2% of revenues at pax carriers.

I think A.net could use a top 10 most regurgitated myths list.

I don’t know if it’s over rated, only airlines would be able to begin judging that (comparing mailing addresses vs origin airports, or via surveys), but if we’re going off single data points, I have done this, out of NE Ohio, I’ve booked tickets from PIT to save 3-400 hundred and even gone as far as driving from DFW to CLL (when living next to DFW) only to fly back and connect to save about 800 RT on a flight...
1.4mm and counting...
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8599
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:11 am

Would they do a route that is primarily London point-of-sale?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3152
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:25 am

I hope after all these years STL gets the nod. With AA's legacy FF base in the area likely still pretty strong, and with St. Louis being one of the largest metros that currently doesn't have any transatlantic service, I think a 5x weekly BA 788 flight could do fairly well. The data from the article appear to back that up.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5151
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:36 am

I can't see CVG or IND getting them with DL running TATL already from both.

flyPIT wrote:
Second. if you look at all of BA's recent US additions, they all have a theme of being a trendy city or one with a growing tech sector, or a combination of both. I just don't see that with STL or CVG.


This might be where CMH comes in, at least with the tech side. CRAA are still pushing hard for TATL (they've checked their West Coast boxes) and BA was one of two carriers they've said they've spoken to (DL is the other).
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13133
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:19 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
CO didn't struggle to fill a 757 on CLE-LGW

Yes they often did.

Butt-in-seats was rarely a problem, and it had strong yields for a few months, but then tanked for the rest of the year; such that for most of its existence, CO only ran it seasonally.

And that was with VS's (and for a very short time, EK's) assistance.



DeltaRules wrote:
I can't see CVG or IND getting them with DL running TATL already from both.

That didn't stop BA from entering PIT.

DL didn't even bother to fight, pulling out shortly after BA announced.



727LOVER wrote:
Would they do a route that is primarily London point-of-sale?

Nearly all of their US routes are primarily UK p.o.s.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
acentauri
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:49 am

DeltaRules wrote:
I can't see CVG or IND getting them with DL running TATL already from both.

LAX772LR wrote:
............................
That didn't stop BA from entering PIT. DL didn't even bother to fight, pulling out shortly after BA announced.

To be 100% Accurate, PIT is paying a 2 year/ $1.5M /year subsidy to BA for the route ( https://www.alleghenyinstitute.org/the- ... h-airways/ ).
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13133
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: British Airways next US target

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:56 am

acentauri wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
I can't see CVG or IND getting them with DL running TATL already from both.
LAX772LR wrote:
That didn't stop BA from entering PIT. DL didn't even bother to fight, pulling out shortly after BA announced.

To be 100% Accurate, PIT is paying a 2 year/ $1.5M /year subsidy to BA for the route.

....and who here is naive enough to believe that these other such suggested destinations wouldn't as well? ;)

Every single one of BA's new stateside adds in the last decade have put forth some manner of public+private "incentive" plan, ranging from direct subsidies to assistance in marketing, and just about everything in between.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: APYu, b6bos143, Baidu [Spider], BrokenJetbridge, concordeforever, debonair, deltacto, Google Adsense [Bot], Hosta, Ishrion, kengo, LAX772LR, MileHFL400, MrBren, NYCAAer, Phosphorus, QuawerAir, rida79, rlwynn, scbriml, ScottB, skylor, SueD, tmu101, trinidadeG, ual4life, wnflyguy and 188 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos