SonaSounds
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Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:08 pm

“For the summer season 2020 and beyond, we will offer all our five Bay Area flights from San Francisco International Airport, which will better position us for our return to profitability. We would like to thank our partners and friends at Oakland International Airport for their tremendous support during our operation from May 2014 to just a few months ago. As the largest foreign airline in the Bay Area, we look forward to offer American travellers unbeatable fares matched with our award-winning onboard product and service out of SFO,” said SVP Commercial at Norwegian, Matthew Wood.


https://media.us.norwegian.com/pressrel ... rt-2954256

SFO's response:

“We are thrilled that Norwegian has made SFO their airport of choice for the San Francisco Bay Area. With the addition of nonstop service to Rome and Oslo, travelers can enjoy our exceptional airport experience together with Norwegian’s fantastic values,” said Airport Director Ivar C. Satero, San Francisco International Airport.


OAK's response:

“While we’re incredibly disappointed by the loss of an airline with which we share a close partnership, we reflect on the undeniable success we’ve experienced in establishing OAK as a large U.S. to Europe gateway and we have worked tirelessly to promote Norwegian’s service and to make it a “household name” here in the Bay Area. The phenomena of Norwegian at OAK has improved our visibility in the travel and aviation business worldwide,” said Port of Oakland Director of Aviation Bryant L. Francis.


Earlier this year, Norwegian Air spokesperson Anders Lindstrom told SFGATE that the carrier was moving its flights to SFO for three main reasons: First, Norwegian thought it could attract more premium class passengers from SFO- primarily business travelers. Second, it believed that there's a better cargo market between SFO and London. It ships more Norwegian salmon to the US than any other product. Third, Norwegian believed it would get more online search traffic using SFO instead of OAK since not all search engines show Oakland when a traveler searches for San Francisco flights.


https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/N ... 905500.php


The writing was on the wall that Norwegian was going to abandon OAK. What does this mean for OAK's (and a much lesser extent SJC's) future prospects of attracting new long haul international service with numerous carriers abandoning or consolidating operations at SFO? Will any long haul service be left at OAK this summer after such a great run these past 5 years?
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:32 pm

There's still a lot of Europe advertising OAK (especially at the airport) is going to have to replace. It's disappointing, as prior to Norwegian's entrance, the type of airline you could see succeeding at OAK would look at lot like Norwegian. If you're flying to or from Europe, there's little difference in using OAK or SFO (SFO has better lounges/shopping, OAK is smaller/easier to navigate and better-positioned geographically for a larger population) but the economics that nudge airlines to SFO in reality mean all service needs to go to SFO. As an OAK partisan I'd be OK ceding long haul traffic to SFO if OAK were a better domestic option. We've been in the weird situation where it's been easier to get to major cities in Europe in recent years than to get to the east coast. Now it's hard to get anywhere aside from major WN destinations, mostly in the west. :(
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:35 pm

This is not a failure on the part of OAK. The two airports are extensions of one another. OAK is really the LCC terminal for the CSA like it or not. Everyone will survive... SJC’s mission is a bit different...
 
iflykpdx
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:40 pm

Agreed that it was foreshadowed. Perhaps yields at SFO are just too significant to ignore compared to OAK. I just don't see any domestic carrier jumping in to start long-haul routes from OAK, and most foreign carriers already serve SFO. Looks like it'll probably a return to the pre-DY status quo for OAK. Yields are clearly lower at SJC than SFO as well, but the closer proximity to tech HQ's and larger presence from the legacy carriers makes it easier to feed into/from alliance partner flights. I don't think there's going to be an immediate impact at all to SJC as a result of DY switching to SFO. Long term I don't see much impact either, especially as SFO becomes more constrained by its runway config and weather difficulties. It is a bit disappointing that long haul LCC flights won't work at an otherwise-successful domestic LCC airport- at least when there's a more temping pond to play in nearby. I'm tempted to wonder how things would be if SFO were large enough to easily absorb all of WN's traffic- would WN rather be there than OAK as well, or would OAK's lower CPE be enough to keep it there?
Last edited by iflykpdx on Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Airport Management - UND
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:42 pm

Azores would be it for OAK during the summer unless someone else jumps in soon.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:43 pm

iflykpdx wrote:
Agreed that it was foreshadowed. Perhaps yields at SFO are just too significant to ignore compared to OAK. I just don't see any domestic carrier jumping in to start long-haul routes from OAK, and most foreign carriers already serve SFO. Looks like it'll probably a return to the pre-DY status quo for OAK. Yields are clearly lower at SJC than SFO as well, but the closer proximity to tech HQ's and larger presence from the legacy carriers makes it easier to feed into/from alliance partner flights. I don't think there's going to be an immediate impact at all to SJC as a result of DY switching to SFO. Long term I don't see much impact either, especially as SFO becomes more constrained by its runway config and weather difficulties. It is a bit disappointing that long haul LCC flights won't work at an otherwise-successful domestic LCC airport- at least when there's a more temping pond to play in nearby.


Why are yields supposedly lower at SJC? I would think SJC is business heavy because of Silicon Valley.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:48 pm

SFO is really screwed for stand space in summer, not sure in the markets Norwegian compete in, the difference in yields is so crucial? Given their USP to market is clearly value driven, OAK isn't working as well as they'd like, not sure a move to SFO will make things that much better?
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:55 pm

I wonder if DY is going to consolidate all of their South Florida operations at MIA?
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:56 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
I wonder if DY is going to consolidate all of their South Florida operations at MIA?


Seems inevitable at this point. When ARN/CPH were still being flown FLL made sense, but with Scandinavian service down to OSL after March, it seems CDG and BCN would be better positioned for MIA.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:37 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
I wonder if DY is going to consolidate all of their South Florida operations at MIA?


Seems inevitable at this point. When ARN/CPH were still being flown FLL made sense, but with Scandinavian service down to OSL after March, it seems CDG and BCN would be better positioned for MIA.


In fact I expect the opposite due to their feeder deal with JetBlue. JetBlue has a large base at Fort Lauderdale, but zero presence in Miami. Therefor it might make more sense for Norwegian to consolidate at Fort Lauderdale so they can offer connections.

In San Francisco this doesn't matter much as JetBlue has little presence at both San Francisco and Oakland.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:00 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
There's still a lot of Europe advertising OAK (especially at the airport) is going to have to replace. It's disappointing, as prior to Norwegian's entrance, the type of airline you could see succeeding at OAK would look at lot like Norwegian. If you're flying to or from Europe, there's little difference in using OAK or SFO (SFO has better lounges/shopping, OAK is smaller/easier to navigate and better-positioned geographically for a larger population) but the economics that nudge airlines to SFO in reality mean all service needs to go to SFO. As an OAK partisan I'd be OK ceding long haul traffic to SFO if OAK were a better domestic option. We've been in the weird situation where it's been easier to get to major cities in Europe in recent years than to get to the east coast. Now it's hard to get anywhere aside from major WN destinations, mostly in the west. :(


I have family in the east bay but live back east. While I fly in and out of Oakland when I can, the lack of options and having to always connect make OAK much less appealing than sometimes just making the drive from SFO.

I agree that Norwegian seemed like the perfect fit for OAK and made it work for many years. If they can't make it work, I don't know who can.
 
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enilria
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:09 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
“For the summer season 2020 and beyond, we will offer all our five Bay Area flights from San Francisco International Airport, which will better position us for our return to profitability. We would like to thank our partners and friends at Oakland International Airport for their tremendous support during our operation from May 2014 to just a few months ago. As the largest foreign airline in the Bay Area, we look forward to offer American travellers unbeatable fares matched with our award-winning onboard product and service out of SFO,” said SVP Commercial at Norwegian, Matthew Wood.


https://media.us.norwegian.com/pressrel ... rt-2954256

SFO's response:

“We are thrilled that Norwegian has made SFO their airport of choice for the San Francisco Bay Area. With the addition of nonstop service to Rome and Oslo, travelers can enjoy our exceptional airport experience together with Norwegian’s fantastic values,” said Airport Director Ivar C. Satero, San Francisco International Airport.


OAK's response:

“While we’re incredibly disappointed by the loss of an airline with which we share a close partnership, we reflect on the undeniable success we’ve experienced in establishing OAK as a large U.S. to Europe gateway and we have worked tirelessly to promote Norwegian’s service and to make it a “household name” here in the Bay Area. The phenomena of Norwegian at OAK has improved our visibility in the travel and aviation business worldwide,” said Port of Oakland Director of Aviation Bryant L. Francis.


Earlier this year, Norwegian Air spokesperson Anders Lindstrom told SFGATE that the carrier was moving its flights to SFO for three main reasons: First, Norwegian thought it could attract more premium class passengers from SFO- primarily business travelers. Second, it believed that there's a better cargo market between SFO and London. It ships more Norwegian salmon to the US than any other product. Third, Norwegian believed it would get more online search traffic using SFO instead of OAK since not all search engines show Oakland when a traveler searches for San Francisco flights.


https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/N ... 905500.php


The writing was on the wall that Norwegian was going to abandon OAK. What does this mean for OAK's (and a much lesser extent SJC's) future prospects of attracting new long haul international service with numerous carriers abandoning or consolidating operations at SFO? Will any long haul service be left at OAK this summer after such a great run these past 5 years?

Condor and TUI are good options for OAK, but frankly the ranks of these low price long-haul leisure airlines are shrinking fast. It's sad. This is what happens when 3 anti-trust immunized JVs control 85% of the transatlantic.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:16 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
I wonder if DY is going to consolidate all of their South Florida operations at MIA?


Seems inevitable at this point. When ARN/CPH were still being flown FLL made sense, but with Scandinavian service down to OSL after March, it seems CDG and BCN would be better positioned for MIA.


In fact I expect the opposite due to their feeder deal with JetBlue. JetBlue has a large base at Fort Lauderdale, but zero presence in Miami. Therefor it might make more sense for Norwegian to consolidate at Fort Lauderdale so they can offer connections.

In San Francisco this doesn't matter much as JetBlue has little presence at both San Francisco and Oakland.


That's a great point I had forgotten and when they announced the B6 deal I recall thinking they may shift the London flight back to FLL. So maybe it will be the opposite as you say. Worth noting FLL is the only longhaul route I believe still being flown from Stockholm though that ends at the end of the winter timetable.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:18 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

Seems inevitable at this point. When ARN/CPH were still being flown FLL made sense, but with Scandinavian service down to OSL after March, it seems CDG and BCN would be better positioned for MIA.


In fact I expect the opposite due to their feeder deal with JetBlue. JetBlue has a large base at Fort Lauderdale, but zero presence in Miami. Therefor it might make more sense for Norwegian to consolidate at Fort Lauderdale so they can offer connections.

In San Francisco this doesn't matter much as JetBlue has little presence at both San Francisco and Oakland.


That's a great point I had forgotten and when they announced the B6 deal I recall thinking they may shift the London flight back to FLL. So maybe it will be the opposite as you say. Worth noting FLL is the only longhaul route I believe still being flown from Stockholm though that ends at the end of the winter timetable.


JetBlue and Norwegian are not creating a partnership. They are going to interline. Airlines all interline with each other. American and Delta interline, for example.
a.
 
AAflyguy
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:32 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
This is not a failure on the part of OAK. The two airports are extensions of one another. OAK is really the LCC terminal for the CSA like it or not. Everyone will survive... SJC’s mission is a bit different...


SFO would not agree that OAK is an extension of it. But in coming years OAK will be far more valuable than airlines appear to see it as today. It will be a vital pipeline for airlines other than WN. The development of the Bay Area and where much of the population growth occurs will help, combined with SFO becoming severely constrained, and further delay prone, along with the ordeal of getting to/from SFO on the ground getting worse, which it will.

DY is basically saying we think we can get people to pay more to fly in/out of SFO. Wonder how true that is or will be for them? And did it attempt to drive more revenue at OAK or go on what other airlines are getting at SFO representing the potential for them? Thing is, DY's product does not compare to the others aside from LEVEL (which is IAG) or French Bee. Most of their competition is now direct and in the form of long established carriers with Global Alliances and FF Programs along with First and/or Business Class in addition to a Premium Economy Cabin which can strongly compete with DY. The other airlines at SFO are going to put tons of fare pressure on them.

If I am going to fly out of SFO internationally, which I have, it is a virtual certainty that it will be on a carrier other than DY. There's no incentive for me to fly them unless they are the only nonstop option. OTOH, their existence at OAK would have me seriously consider them because of the idea of it being a simpler, easier experience. In fact, that did drive my decisions on European travel on a few occasions in recent years.

Also wonder how DY will fare if oil spikes and stays high for a prolonged period? Wish them well at SFO. Sorry to see them leave OAK. Hope it works out the way they've envisioned. Time will tell.

AAflyguy
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:41 pm

Full statement from OAK

Statement from Oakland International Airport Director of Aviation Regarding Norwegian Air Shuttle
The team at OAK recently learned that Norwegian Air has decided to consolidate its local operation at San Francisco International Airport.
While we’re incredibly disappointed by the loss of an airline with which we share a close partnership, we reflect on the undeniable success we’ve experienced in establishing OAK as a large US to Europe gateway which both residents and visitors not only embraced, but showed a preference for amidst many choices. We have worked tirelessly to promote Norwegian’s service and to make it a “household name” here in the Bay Area. We greatly improved the overall awareness of Oakland and the East Bay in Western Europe. The phenomena of Norwegian at OAK has improved our visibility in the travel and aviation business worldwide.
We now enhance our focus on ongoing discussions with an array of carriers to provide what has become an essential link to Europe from the East Bay that residents and visitors now expect and deserve.
Norwegian Air has served the greater San Francisco Bay Area at OAK since 2014. Nearly 1.5 million passengers have traveled between OAK and Europe aboard its aircraft. At the peak of its service in Summer 2018, OAK became the State’s third largest gateway between California and Europe. With up to 5 daily flights serving 7 nonstop markets, Norwegian transported approximately 3,000 people a day between the East Bay and Europe. Economic development and tourism flourished. The strong ties between the two regions grew even stronger.
OAK remains up to the task. Our entire team, as well as our regional partners, embraced with excitement the various challenges presented by this unprecedented level of growth. Success was achieved as peak passenger load factors climbed above 90%.
These metrics now become the keystone of our Oakland International Airport business case for airlines in Europe and elsewhere in the world. The good work done here will continue and it must. We won’t stop until the world knows why and how to Fly The East Bay Way.


https://www.facebook.com/iflyoak/photos ... =3&theater
 
babastud
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:32 pm

Good news for SFO, lot's of new Service coming online for Europe in Summer 2020....
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:38 am

enilria wrote:
This is what happens when 3 anti-trust immunized JVs control 85% of the transatlantic.


CAPA put it at 72% last year, down from 80% in 2015. Can you point to a more recent calc?
 
FSDan
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:54 am

Seems smart from the perspective of minimizing complexity. Similar to pulling out of EWR, SWF, and PVD in favor of consolidating to JFK and BOS. It does make MIA/FLL the next interesting case to watch.

Regarding the comments that DY will struggle to compete with the legacy carriers at SFO: they seem to do fine in similar scenarios at LAX and JFK. Hopefully they'll be able to replicate that at SFO.

When will the first new international-capable gates come online at SFO T1? It seems it can't happen soon enough!
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:15 am

SonaSounds wrote:
“For the summer season 2020 and beyond, we will offer all our five Bay Area flights from San Francisco International Airport, which will better position us for our return to profitability. We would like to thank our partners and friends at Oakland International Airport for their tremendous support during our operation from May 2014 to just a few months ago. As the largest foreign airline in the Bay Area, we look forward to offer American travellers unbeatable fares matched with our award-winning onboard product and service out of SFO,” said SVP Commercial at Norwegian, Matthew Wood.


https://media.us.norwegian.com/pressrel ... rt-2954256

SFO's response:

“We are thrilled that Norwegian has made SFO their airport of choice for the San Francisco Bay Area. With the addition of nonstop service to Rome and Oslo, travelers can enjoy our exceptional airport experience together with Norwegian’s fantastic values,” said Airport Director Ivar C. Satero, San Francisco International Airport.


OAK's response:

“While we’re incredibly disappointed by the loss of an airline with which we share a close partnership, we reflect on the undeniable success we’ve experienced in establishing OAK as a large U.S. to Europe gateway and we have worked tirelessly to promote Norwegian’s service and to make it a “household name” here in the Bay Area. The phenomena of Norwegian at OAK has improved our visibility in the travel and aviation business worldwide,” said Port of Oakland Director of Aviation Bryant L. Francis.


Earlier this year, Norwegian Air spokesperson Anders Lindstrom told SFGATE that the carrier was moving its flights to SFO for three main reasons: First, Norwegian thought it could attract more premium class passengers from SFO- primarily business travelers. Second, it believed that there's a better cargo market between SFO and London. It ships more Norwegian salmon to the US than any other product. Third, Norwegian believed it would get more online search traffic using SFO instead of OAK since not all search engines show Oakland when a traveler searches for San Francisco flights.


https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/N ... 905500.php


The writing was on the wall that Norwegian was going to abandon OAK. What does this mean for OAK's (and a much lesser extent SJC's) future prospects of attracting new long haul international service with numerous carriers abandoning or consolidating operations at SFO? Will any long haul service be left at OAK this summer after such a great run these past 5 years?

the question In my mind? Are they moving for marketing or Logistical reasons? With them flying the 787? They could need support at SFO for the 787 that might not be available at OAK. And? If they have no Maintenance nor Parts needs? Then Oakland is ok? If they Do have Maintenance or Parts needs? Then SFO might be where they need to be. so they might not be leaving Oakland just to BE in SFO. though I can see them moving or staying at Either airport,
 
strfyr51
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:35 am

AAflyguy wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
This is not a failure on the part of OAK. The two airports are extensions of one another. OAK is really the LCC terminal for the CSA like it or not. Everyone will survive... SJC’s mission is a bit different...


SFO would not agree that OAK is an extension of it. But in coming years OAK will be far more valuable than airlines appear to see it as today. It will be a vital pipeline for airlines other than WN. The development of the Bay Area and where much of the population growth occurs will help, combined with SFO becoming severely constrained, and further delay prone, along with the ordeal of getting to/from SFO on the ground getting worse, which it will.

DY is basically saying we think we can get people to pay more to fly in/out of SFO. Wonder how true that is or will be for them? And did it attempt to drive more revenue at OAK or go on what other airlines are getting at SFO representing the potential for them? Thing is, DY's product does not compare to the others aside from LEVEL (which is IAG) or French Bee. Most of their competition is now direct and in the form of long established carriers with Global Alliances and FF Programs along with First and/or Business Class in addition to a Premium Economy Cabin which can strongly compete with DY. The other airlines at SFO are going to put tons of fare pressure on them.

If I am going to fly out of SFO internationally, which I have, it is a virtual certainty that it will be on a carrier other than DY. There's no incentive for me to fly them unless they are the only nonstop option. OTOH, their existence at OAK would have me seriously consider them because of the idea of it being a simpler, easier experience. In fact, that did drive my decisions on European travel on a few occasions in recent years.

Also wonder how DY will fare if oil spikes and stays high for a prolonged period? Wish them well at SFO. Sorry to see them leave OAK. Hope it works out the way they've envisioned. Time will tell.

AAflyguy

Were oil to spike? it would be just as bad for OAK as SFO. other than connecting passengers? What's really the difference? I worked for United and I believe to this very Day that United made a mistake Leaving Both OAK and SJC. we quit a fight before the fight was over. OAK and SJC to LAX, DEN, ORD,IAH,EWR and IAD were and could have been VERY profitable flights including OAK-Hawaii and SJC-Hawaii. I understand Why we did it but I don't have to like that we did it..
though at the time ? We were in Ch-11. If we had held om up to the merger? I believe to this very day we'd have had a gold mine, I believe United will establish a Southeastern Hub in FLL or TPA, Then it will come to light how valuable OAK and SJC might truly BE!! They're leaving Money on the table there.
 
Chasensfo
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:57 am

Sure, why not pay more for operational headaches, longer TSA lines, and more expensive usage fees? I understand why legacy and alliance carriers don't like OAK, but I can't think of a much better set up for an ULCC that has been entrenched at OAK for over 5 years to leave as soon as all the competition(BA and Level) leave town. In the summer, SFO runs on a fantasy gate schedule(no buffer between flights at all at peak times), there is rarely a day where someone doesn't hold over an hour just due to early/late arrivals, if not 10+ international flights. Take a look out by the end of the 10s just about any summer morning, afternoon, or early evening and you'll usually spot plenty of heavies with no gates just hanging out. Why would Norweigan, with their short turn times, want to be subjected to that?
 
AAflyguy
Posts: 312
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:08 am

strfyr51 wrote:
AAflyguy wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
This is not a failure on the part of OAK. The two airports are extensions of one another. OAK is really the LCC terminal for the CSA like it or not. Everyone will survive... SJC’s mission is a bit different...


SFO would not agree that OAK is an extension of it. But in coming years OAK will be far more valuable than airlines appear to see it as today. It will be a vital pipeline for airlines other than WN. The development of the Bay Area and where much of the population growth occurs will help, combined with SFO becoming severely constrained, and further delay prone, along with the ordeal of getting to/from SFO on the ground getting worse, which it will.

DY is basically saying we think we can get people to pay more to fly in/out of SFO. Wonder how true that is or will be for them? And did it attempt to drive more revenue at OAK or go on what other airlines are getting at SFO representing the potential for them? Thing is, DY's product does not compare to the others aside from LEVEL (which is IAG) or French Bee. Most of their competition is now direct and in the form of long established carriers with Global Alliances and FF Programs along with First and/or Business Class in addition to a Premium Economy Cabin which can strongly compete with DY. The other airlines at SFO are going to put tons of fare pressure on them.

If I am going to fly out of SFO internationally, which I have, it is a virtual certainty that it will be on a carrier other than DY. There's no incentive for me to fly them unless they are the only nonstop option. OTOH, their existence at OAK would have me seriously consider them because of the idea of it being a simpler, easier experience. In fact, that did drive my decisions on European travel on a few occasions in recent years.

Also wonder how DY will fare if oil spikes and stays high for a prolonged period? Wish them well at SFO. Sorry to see them leave OAK. Hope it works out the way they've envisioned. Time will tell.

AAflyguy

Were oil to spike? it would be just as bad for OAK as SFO. other than connecting passengers? What's really the difference? I worked for United and I believe to this very Day that United made a mistake Leaving Both OAK and SJC. we quit a fight before the fight was over. OAK and SJC to LAX, DEN, ORD,IAH,EWR and IAD were and could have been VERY profitable flights including OAK-Hawaii and SJC-Hawaii. I understand Why we did it but I don't have to like that we did it..
though at the time ? We were in Ch-11. If we had held om up to the merger? I believe to this very day we'd have had a gold mine, I believe United will establish a Southeastern Hub in FLL or TPA, Then it will come to light how valuable OAK and SJC might truly BE!! They're leaving Money on the table there.


Agreed. I’m not saying it would be any different at OAK than SFO. I’m saying the company isn’t the most financially secure. Something like a sustained spike in fuel could be a huge hurdle to clear for a company which isn’t in the best shape to begin with. Thanks for your thoughts on UA’s retrenching in the 00’s.
 
AAflyguy
Posts: 312
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:59 pm

Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:15 am

Chasensfo wrote:
Sure, why not pay more for operational headaches, longer TSA lines, and more expensive usage fees? I understand why legacy and alliance carriers don't like OAK, but I can't think of a much better set up for an ULCC that has been entrenched at OAK for over 5 years to leave as soon as all the competition(BA and Level) leave town. In the summer, SFO runs on a fantasy gate schedule(no buffer between flights at all at peak times), there is rarely a day where someone doesn't hold over an hour just due to early/late arrivals, if not 10+ international flights. Take a look out by the end of the 10s just about any summer morning, afternoon, or early evening and you'll usually spot plenty of heavies with no gates just hanging out. Why would Norweigan, with their short turn times, want to be subjected to that?


So why do those carriers not like OAK, since you said you understand why. Curious. Thanks.

I agree that it is perplexing as to why DY would flee to SFO so soon after those other carriers ended competitive service @ OAK.

Someone mentioned DY seems to do fine at LAX & JFK competing with other carriers. The L.A.-Europe and NYC-Europe markets are far deeper/larger than the Bay Area-Europe. And, DY is losing a good bit of $$$ as a company so there’s a fair amount that isn’t going so well for them. Who’s to say how great they are doing at LAX & JFK? They expanded too much too quickly, seemingly without a sustainable plan. And then there’s the question of whether or not they are pricing their product at a level which allows them to easily be profitable. Seems the answer is in their overall financial performance.
 
Blerg
Posts: 3091
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:04 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
This is what happens when 3 anti-trust immunized JVs control 85% of the transatlantic.


CAPA put it at 72% last year, down from 80% in 2015. Can you point to a more recent calc?


Would be interesting to know what the percentage would be without Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines which are on the fringes of Europe and carry a lot of non-European transfers onboard.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 391
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:01 am

DY-B6 interline....will change in future...Marty St. George was head of B6 route planning.
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1505
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:17 am

strfyr51 wrote:
AAflyguy wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
This is not a failure on the part of OAK. The two airports are extensions of one another. OAK is really the LCC terminal for the CSA like it or not. Everyone will survive... SJC’s mission is a bit different...


SFO would not agree that OAK is an extension of it. But in coming years OAK will be far more valuable than airlines appear to see it as today. It will be a vital pipeline for airlines other than WN. The development of the Bay Area and where much of the population growth occurs will help, combined with SFO becoming severely constrained, and further delay prone, along with the ordeal of getting to/from SFO on the ground getting worse, which it will.

DY is basically saying we think we can get people to pay more to fly in/out of SFO. Wonder how true that is or will be for them? And did it attempt to drive more revenue at OAK or go on what other airlines are getting at SFO representing the potential for them? Thing is, DY's product does not compare to the others aside from LEVEL (which is IAG) or French Bee. Most of their competition is now direct and in the form of long established carriers with Global Alliances and FF Programs along with First and/or Business Class in addition to a Premium Economy Cabin which can strongly compete with DY. The other airlines at SFO are going to put tons of fare pressure on them.

If I am going to fly out of SFO internationally, which I have, it is a virtual certainty that it will be on a carrier other than DY. There's no incentive for me to fly them unless they are the only nonstop option. OTOH, their existence at OAK would have me seriously consider them because of the idea of it being a simpler, easier experience. In fact, that did drive my decisions on European travel on a few occasions in recent years.

Also wonder how DY will fare if oil spikes and stays high for a prolonged period? Wish them well at SFO. Sorry to see them leave OAK. Hope it works out the way they've envisioned. Time will tell.

AAflyguy

Were oil to spike? it would be just as bad for OAK as SFO. other than connecting passengers? What's really the difference? I worked for United and I believe to this very Day that United made a mistake Leaving Both OAK and SJC. we quit a fight before the fight was over. OAK and SJC to LAX, DEN, ORD,IAH,EWR and IAD were and could have been VERY profitable flights including OAK-Hawaii and SJC-Hawaii. I understand Why we did it but I don't have to like that we did it..
though at the time ? We were in Ch-11. If we had held om up to the merger? I believe to this very day we'd have had a gold mine, I believe United will establish a Southeastern Hub in FLL or TPA, Then it will come to light how valuable OAK and SJC might truly BE!! They're leaving Money on the table there.


A still servers SJC. But they always do seem to be shrinking.
 
Chasensfo
Posts: 225
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:29 am

AAflyguy wrote:
Chasensfo wrote:
Sure, why not pay more for operational headaches, longer TSA lines, and more expensive usage fees? I understand why legacy and alliance carriers don't like OAK, but I can't think of a much better set up for an ULCC that has been entrenched at OAK for over 5 years to leave as soon as all the competition(BA and Level) leave town. In the summer, SFO runs on a fantasy gate schedule(no buffer between flights at all at peak times), there is rarely a day where someone doesn't hold over an hour just due to early/late arrivals, if not 10+ international flights. Take a look out by the end of the 10s just about any summer morning, afternoon, or early evening and you'll usually spot plenty of heavies with no gates just hanging out. Why would Norweigan, with their short turn times, want to be subjected to that?


So why do those carriers not like OAK, since you said you understand why. Curious. Thanks..

Facilities, connectivity and search visibility. Oakland can't accommodate multiple widebody international arrivals for the most part(technically there is one back up gate) and the terminal is old with very little in the way of lounges, amenities, seating ect. Also, as others have echoed in this thread, many travel agencies and international travel sites do not display Oakland as San Francisco, so user would have to search for Oakland(if it is even in the database). Most travelers, of course, do not know this otherwise they would book directly with the airlines serving Oakland rather than use said search engines. Beyond that OAK offers very little in the way of connections. SFO is a huge Star Alliance hub, but also offers connections onto most US Oneworld and SkyTeam hubs and plenty of options for jetBlue and Alaska codeshares. Oakland is simply a "spoke" airport with very few destinations beyond what Southwest, Spirit, and Allegiant offer. It is actually fairly common to have pax fly Virgin Atlantic LHR-SFO then onwards to AKL on Air New Zealand, connections beyond alliances that bring traffic in. Despite this 2014-2019 push of longhaul traffic, Oakland has historically only attracted charter and seasonal longhaul traffic. Looks like history is just going to repeat itself. I do think European or Asian LCC\ULCC airlines will return to OAK at some point, but I'd be shocked to see British Airways return or any other legacy carrier start longhaul service to OAK in the coming years without a new facility.
 
KFTG
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:28 am

"Undeniable success for OAK"? On what planet?
 
AirFiero
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:51 am

KFTG wrote:
"Undeniable success for OAK"? On what planet?


Planet Oakland, very close relative to planet California where politicians believe their own bulls***.
 
Blueknows
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:17 am

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/N ... 905500.php

This is the MARTY effect. Marty St George is aligning DY-B6. They are moving to B6 cities that will give DY more connectivity on paper. B6 gets benefit of all this. DY will fly to FLL/JFK/MCO/BOS/SFO. This is all part of a bigger plan for the future of DY and B6. DY got LHR slOts recently. With an interline some B6 TrueBlue will get points on DY flights. Look for B6 saying connect to London(through or partner DY). Now B6 Up gauged BOS and soon DY customers will be able to connect straight up with B6. Don’t be surprised if DY moves into T5 in JFK and BOS will see the same. EI is IAG and they will soon pull EI from B6 portfolio. This is where DY will start to fill in. IAG wants to protect EUROPE from B6. DY will look a lot different in a year. Watch as they change to a more B6 model and mint style seats. Since Marty has joined they have started leasing Airbus. All part of huge DY turn around.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... hree-a320s
 
skipness1E
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:25 am

B6 doesn;t even register in Europe, and whereas this all sounds good on paper, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, especially as SFO is hopelessly constrained for International gates at certain times. Good luck making that B6 connection from a different terminal at SFO. OAK and working with WN in some way made way more sense IMHO
 
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enilria
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:13 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
This is what happens when 3 anti-trust immunized JVs control 85% of the transatlantic.


CAPA put it at 72% last year, down from 80% in 2015. Can you point to a more recent calc?

For one thing, that was before VS was added wasn't it? Also, that was before the demise of WOW and Thomas Cook. I saw it in one of articles talking about the VS/DL/AF/KL/AZ ATI. I would bet B6 created it. 72% seems extremely hard to believe.
 
LHUSA
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:12 pm

enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
This is what happens when 3 anti-trust immunized JVs control 85% of the transatlantic.


CAPA put it at 72% last year, down from 80% in 2015. Can you point to a more recent calc?

For one thing, that was before VS was added wasn't it? Also, that was before the demise of WOW and Thomas Cook. I saw it in one of articles talking about the VS/DL/AF/KL/AZ ATI. I would bet B6 created it. 72% seems extremely hard to believe.


Per OAG's latest loading for January 2020, the immunized JV carriers offer from the US:

63.9% of the total Transatlantic Seats
58.9% of the total Transatlantic ASMs
64.3% of the total Transatlantic Departures


Seats ASMs Departures
OW JV 754,091 3,132,493 2,819
Sky JV 834,547 3,604,879 2,949
Star JV 816,757 3,805,302 3,043
Rest 1,361,295 7,370,653 4,897
Grand Total 3,766,690 17,913,327 13,708


Combining US and Canada
64.7% of the total Transatlantic Seats
59.9% of the total Transatlantic ASMs
64.8% of the total Transatlantic Departures
 
SFAviationGeek
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:28 pm

I flew Norwegian from CDG-OAK in July. We landed maybe 5 minutes before a Volaris flight from Leon. First, we had to wait for the entire Volaris flight to deplane since evidently two planes can't unload simultaneously at OAK? Then, there were 2 customs agents working the entire facility. It took almost 2 hours to get from the plane to my car. I'm not surprised one bit Norwegian is bailing. OAK is not set up for a high volume of international traffic and I'll NEVER fly internationally again from there.
 
AAflyguy
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:33 pm

KFTG wrote:
"Undeniable success for OAK"? On what planet?


Maybe because they said something like 1.5 million people flew in/out of OAK on Norwegian’s flights which had high load factors throughout the 5yrs. We all know full planes don’t mean profitable ones but airlines set fares, not airports. People decide which airport to use for their travel needs, and there are multiple options in the market. That is a choice. I could see that being called a success because there are several other airports in the region and if people didn’t like Norwegian and/or OAK, they could easily choose to go elsewhere. Just a guess.

AAflyguy
 
FSDan
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:39 pm

AAflyguy wrote:
Someone mentioned DY seems to do fine at LAX & JFK competing with other carriers. The L.A.-Europe and NYC-Europe markets are far deeper/larger than the Bay Area-Europe. And, DY is losing a good bit of $$$ as a company so there’s a fair amount that isn’t going so well for them. Who’s to say how great they are doing at LAX & JFK? They expanded too much too quickly, seemingly without a sustainable plan. And then there’s the question of whether or not they are pricing their product at a level which allows them to easily be profitable. Seems the answer is in their overall financial performance.


SFO-Europe is a pretty big market, though. Strong demand from both ends. Sure, it's smaller than LAX-Europe and certainly JFK-Europe, but DY is also offering fewer flights from SFO and there are fewer flights on the competition, so to me their future SFO operation seems inline with those other examples.

Regarding how they do in LAX and JFK and their overall profitability, I'm merely looking at which markets they've stayed strong in (or even added to) as they've made cuts elsewhere. LAX and JFK have both held their own, even as DY pulled out of LAS, cut long haul from ARN and CPH, etc. That, to me, indicates that they are some of the stronger performers in the network.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:57 pm

Blueknows wrote:
https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Norwegian-Air-abandons-Oakland-International-14905500.php

This is the MARTY effect. Marty St George is aligning DY-B6. They are moving to B6 cities that will give DY more connectivity on paper. B6 gets benefit of all this. DY will fly to FLL/JFK/MCO/BOS/SFO. This is all part of a bigger plan for the future of DY and B6. DY got LHR slOts recently. With an interline some B6 TrueBlue will get points on DY flights. Look for B6 saying connect to London(through or partner DY). Now B6 Up gauged BOS and soon DY customers will be able to connect straight up with B6. Don’t be surprised if DY moves into T5 in JFK and BOS will see the same. EI is IAG and they will soon pull EI from B6 portfolio. This is where DY will start to fill in. IAG wants to protect EUROPE from B6. DY will look a lot different in a year. Watch as they change to a more B6 model and mint style seats. Since Marty has joined they have started leasing Airbus. All part of huge DY turn around.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... hree-a320s


All part of the master plan to drive connecting traffic from the two daily B6 flights from LGB, that operate out of a different terminal? [note LGB-OAK also has two daily flights and they operate out of the same terminal]. Or are they going to fill planes on FLL-SFO-LGW routing?
 
AAflyguy
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:59 pm

SFAviationGeek wrote:
I flew Norwegian from CDG-OAK in July. We landed maybe 5 minutes before a Volaris flight from Leon. First, we had to wait for the entire Volaris flight to deplane since evidently two planes can't unload simultaneously at OAK? Then, there were 2 customs agents working the entire facility. It took almost 2 hours to get from the plane to my car. I'm not surprised one bit Norwegian is bailing. OAK is not set up for a high volume of international traffic and I'll NEVER fly internationally again from there.


That is unfortunate. Sorry to hear. I had a friend visiting from Manila over the summer who flew into SFO on Philippines, and it took her over 2hr to clear Customs, so don’t be fooled into thinking that long waits can only happen at OAK. I only flew Norwegian twice, but have several friends who also flew them over the years. Both of my experiences were good, with quick Customs processing, but I was one of the first 30-40 people off the plane both times. As for my friends, some loved it, some were so so, and others said they wouldn’t do it again. Some who flew them more than once had different experiences where Customs was great one time and not another time. It comes down to staffing, and the facility isn’t very big, so I could see how some people even on the same plane could say it was good while others might say it wasn’t, depending on where they were in line to be processed. Being somewhat familiar with Customs, those facilities are not controlled by the airport. They are Federal facilities staffed by CBP and they decide how the facility functions. Earlier this year I flew into OAK from Mexico on Southwest and was out in less than 15 minutes. We arrived just before a Norwegian flight, but those passengers were entering the room as we were being processed, so the facility can receive two flights at once. I suspect the folks at the very back of the Norwegian plane were probably an hour waiting to clear. That said, I don’t think Customs had anything to do with Norwegian’s decision. But they didn’t consult me while making the call, so I can’t say for sure. LOL
 
AAflyguy
Posts: 312
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:06 pm

FSDan wrote:
AAflyguy wrote:
Someone mentioned DY seems to do fine at LAX & JFK competing with other carriers. The L.A.-Europe and NYC-Europe markets are far deeper/larger than the Bay Area-Europe. And, DY is losing a good bit of $$$ as a company so there’s a fair amount that isn’t going so well for them. Who’s to say how great they are doing at LAX & JFK? They expanded too much too quickly, seemingly without a sustainable plan. And then there’s the question of whether or not they are pricing their product at a level which allows them to easily be profitable. Seems the answer is in their overall financial performance.


SFO-Europe is a pretty big market, though. Strong demand from both ends. Sure, it's smaller than LAX-Europe and certainly JFK-Europe, but DY is also offering fewer flights from SFO and there are fewer flights on the competition, so to me their future SFO operation seems inline with those other examples.

Regarding how they do in LAX and JFK and their overall profitability, I'm merely looking at which markets they've stayed strong in (or even added to) as they've made cuts elsewhere. LAX and JFK have both held their own, even as DY pulled out of LAS, cut long haul from ARN and CPH, etc. That, to me, indicates that they are some of the stronger performers in the network.


Fair enough. Thanks. I read at one point DY had like 5 flights a day at OAK. That was probably the same or more than LAX at the peak.
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 601
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:09 pm

KFTG wrote:
"Undeniable success for OAK"? On what planet?


It would be interesting to hear them speak honestly about 1. What has changed this decade to drive all Bay Area growth to SFO (and a lesser extent SJC) and 2. What they are going to do to change this dynamic going forward, but it's not really in their job description to have honest, frank discussions about bad news. From what we can see, Norwegian's experiment at OAK was on balance a success; if they thought they could have made more money at SJC, SMF, PDX, DEN, etc at any point they would have grown there instead of OAK. It can be possible that OAK was a success for DY and that they feel they can be even more successful at SFO.

I hope they fail though
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 601
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:24 pm

SFAviationGeek wrote:
I flew Norwegian from CDG-OAK in July. We landed maybe 5 minutes before a Volaris flight from Leon. First, we had to wait for the entire Volaris flight to deplane since evidently two planes can't unload simultaneously at OAK? Then, there were 2 customs agents working the entire facility. It took almost 2 hours to get from the plane to my car. I'm not surprised one bit Norwegian is bailing. OAK is not set up for a high volume of international traffic and I'll NEVER fly internationally again from there.


Note the airport did recently open a new international arrivals building that can supposedly handle two widebodies at a time (600 passengers per hour). You hear lots of stories like the above, so seemingly this expansion was not enough and also way too much now. It highlights the difficulty of making long range infrastructure investment decisions based on the whims of air carriers that can come and go at the drop of a hat. The money they spent on that was not spent on improving the generally old and cramped terminals.

I only arrived there once on a WN flight from SJD and it was fine. It's going to be pretty empty most of the time now though.
 
JBLUA320
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:09 pm

Blueknows wrote:
https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Norwegian-Air-abandons-Oakland-International-14905500.php

This is the MARTY effect. Marty St George is aligning DY-B6. They are moving to B6 cities that will give DY more connectivity on paper. B6 gets benefit of all this. DY will fly to FLL/JFK/MCO/BOS/SFO. This is all part of a bigger plan for the future of DY and B6. DY got LHR slOts recently. With an interline some B6 TrueBlue will get points on DY flights. Look for B6 saying connect to London(through or partner DY). Now B6 Up gauged BOS and soon DY customers will be able to connect straight up with B6. Don’t be surprised if DY moves into T5 in JFK and BOS will see the same. EI is IAG and they will soon pull EI from B6 portfolio. This is where DY will start to fill in. IAG wants to protect EUROPE from B6. DY will look a lot different in a year. Watch as they change to a more B6 model and mint style seats. Since Marty has joined they have started leasing Airbus. All part of huge DY turn around.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... hree-a320s


This has nothing to do with JetBlue - at all. Norwegian wet leases these A320s every year for capacity increases because they are stretched for frames, especially with the MAX delays. That it's only 3 A320s is actually a big decline in wet lease capacity YoY.

Marty can certainly make some connections happen for the two carriers if it makes business sense on both ends - like a terminal agreement once T6 is done at JFK. JetBlue would profit handsomely from such a deal as at JFK, the carriers own the terminals, not the Port Authority (with some exceptions). To think of it as anything more then that, for now, is far fetched - at best.
 
User avatar
enilria
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:53 pm

LHUSA wrote:
enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

CAPA put it at 72% last year, down from 80% in 2015. Can you point to a more recent calc?

For one thing, that was before VS was added wasn't it? Also, that was before the demise of WOW and Thomas Cook. I saw it in one of articles talking about the VS/DL/AF/KL/AZ ATI. I would bet B6 created it. 72% seems extremely hard to believe.


Per OAG's latest loading for January 2020, the immunized JV carriers offer from the US:

63.9% of the total Transatlantic Seats
58.9% of the total Transatlantic ASMs
64.3% of the total Transatlantic Departures


Seats ASMs Departures
OW JV 754,091 3,132,493 2,819
Sky JV 834,547 3,604,879 2,949
Star JV 816,757 3,805,302 3,043
Rest 1,361,295 7,370,653 4,897
Grand Total 3,766,690 17,913,327 13,708


Combining US and Canada
64.7% of the total Transatlantic Seats
59.9% of the total Transatlantic ASMs
64.8% of the total Transatlantic Departures

I do not get those numbers for January 2020 from OAG. On USA-Europe one-way I get 13.1B ASMs and you have 17.9. Even if I included Canada I only get 14.8B to your 17.9B. So, already not sure what is different.

13.1B ASMs
OneWorld 3.1B 23.6%
Star 4.7B 35.8%
SkyTeam 2.9B 22.4%
That's 81.8%
+ VS 0.744B, now 87.5%
+ Eurowings (owned by Lufthansa) 0.09B, now 88.2%
+ AerLingus (owned by IAG/BA/IB) 0.37B, now 91.0%

I could also throw in Open Skies which is owned by IAG and takes us to 91.3%.

The only significant carriers not part of three ownership/alliance groups are:
Norwegian 4.7%
Icelandair 1.0%
Condor barely operates in January (which you picked)
Emirates with only 2 RTs at 0.9%.

So, the Atlantic is COMPLETELY OWNED. There is no competition beyond the 3 groups that control over 91% of capacity.
 
steex
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:05 pm

enilria wrote:
I do not get those numbers for January 2020 from OAG. On USA-Europe one-way I get 13.1B ASMs and you have 17.9. Even if I included Canada I only get 14.8B to your 17.9B. So, already not sure what is different.

13.1B ASMs
OneWorld 3.1B 23.6%
Star 4.7B 35.8%
SkyTeam 2.9B 22.4%
That's 81.8%
+ VS 0.744B, now 87.5%
+ Eurowings (owned by Lufthansa) 0.09B, now 88.2%
+ AerLingus (owned by IAG/BA/IB) 0.37B, now 91.0%

I could also throw in Open Skies which is owned by IAG and takes us to 91.3%.

The only significant carriers not part of three ownership/alliance groups are:
Norwegian 4.7%
Icelandair 1.0%
Condor barely operates in January (which you picked)
Emirates with only 2 RTs at 0.9%.

So, the Atlantic is COMPLETELY OWNED. There is no competition beyond the 3 groups that control over 91% of capacity.


Interesting - so does that mean SAS and LOT both qualify as negligible carriers TATL? If nothing else, I would've expected them to each exceed the capacity Emirates supplies even with limited route networks.

The overall point isn't changed regardless, just curious.
Last edited by steex on Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kiowa
Posts: 656
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:05 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
This is not a failure on the part of OAK. The two airports are extensions of one another. OAK is really the LCC terminal for the CSA like it or not. Everyone will survive... SJC’s mission is a bit different...


Perhaps, but even the low-budget carriers seem to be Centering their operations in San Francisco at SFO.
 
LHUSA
Posts: 817
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Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:09 pm

enilria wrote:
LHUSA wrote:
enilria wrote:
For one thing, that was before VS was added wasn't it? Also, that was before the demise of WOW and Thomas Cook. I saw it in one of articles talking about the VS/DL/AF/KL/AZ ATI. I would bet B6 created it. 72% seems extremely hard to believe.


Per OAG's latest loading for January 2020, the immunized JV carriers offer from the US:

63.9% of the total Transatlantic Seats
58.9% of the total Transatlantic ASMs
64.3% of the total Transatlantic Departures


Seats ASMs Departures
OW JV 754,091 3,132,493 2,819
Sky JV 834,547 3,604,879 2,949
Star JV 816,757 3,805,302 3,043
Rest 1,361,295 7,370,653 4,897
Grand Total 3,766,690 17,913,327 13,708


Combining US and Canada
64.7% of the total Transatlantic Seats
59.9% of the total Transatlantic ASMs
64.8% of the total Transatlantic Departures

I do not get those numbers for January 2020 from OAG. On USA-Europe one-way I get 13.1B ASMs and you have 17.9. Even if I included Canada I only get 14.8B to your 17.9B. So, already not sure what is different.

13.1B ASMs
OneWorld 3.1B 23.6%
Star 4.7B 35.8%
SkyTeam 2.9B 22.4%
That's 81.8%
+ VS 0.744B, now 87.5%
+ Eurowings (owned by Lufthansa) 0.09B, now 88.2%
+ AerLingus (owned by IAG/BA/IB) 0.37B, now 91.0%

I could also throw in Open Skies which is owned by IAG and takes us to 91.3%.

The only significant carriers not part of three ownership/alliance groups are:
Norwegian 4.7%
Icelandair 1.0%
Condor barely operates in January (which you picked)
Emirates with only 2 RTs at 0.9%.

So, the Atlantic is COMPLETELY OWNED. There is no competition beyond the 3 groups that control over 91% of capacity.


Transatlantic is not isolated to Europe. The JV agreements allow pricing/network coordination to all of EMEAI, so including Middle East, Africa and India. Here are the top carriers by that definition which are not part of a JV. For instance, United's EWR to India flights are fully included in the JV.

EK 1,431,409
QR 891,774
TK 600,611
AI 375,904
EY 327,109
DY 317,867
SK 312,537
LY 284,294
DI 283,414
TP 218,825
SV 212,706
SU 174,668
FI 163,798
AZ 160,701
ET 159,748
 
User avatar
SFOA380
Posts: 577
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:35 am

Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:46 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
"Undeniable success for OAK"? On what planet?


It would be interesting to hear them speak honestly about 1. What has changed this decade to drive all Bay Area growth to SFO (and a lesser extent SJC) and 2. What they are going to do to change this dynamic going forward, but it's not really in their job description to have honest, frank discussions about bad news. From what we can see, Norwegian's experiment at OAK was on balance a success; if they thought they could have made more money at SJC, SMF, PDX, DEN, etc at any point they would have grown there instead of OAK. It can be possible that OAK was a success for DY and that they feel they can be even more successful at SFO.

I hope they fail though


San Jose has grown dramatically. From their low of around 8.2MM passengers in 2012 to over 15MM today. OAK hasn't seen the same growth as the other two but has also grown around 4MM over the past several years.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4313
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:30 pm

Chasensfo wrote:
Sure, why not pay more for operational heada'd bet NOBODY ches, longer TSA lines, and more expensive usage fees? I understand why legacy and alliance carriers don't like OAK, but I can't think of a much better set up for an ULCC that has been entrenched at OAK for over 5 years to leave as soon as all the competition(BA and Level) leave town. In the summer, SFO runs on a fantasy gate schedule(no buffer between flights at all at peak times), there is rarely a day where someone doesn't hold over an hour just due to early/late arrivals, if not 10+ international flights. Take a look out by the end of the 10s just about any summer morning, afternoon, or early evening and you'll usually spot plenty of heavies with no gates just hanging out. Why would Norweigan, with their short turn times, want to be subjected to that?

I think it might have been support for their 787's Parts and Technical support which well exceeds any other reason. Anybody could render passenger support. But the 787 isn't a just an Anybody airplane and who else at Oakland could technically support it?? There's a damn sight more to flying a plane than just flying it! Just to support if could go from $80/ manhour at sfo to $160/Manhour at Oakland at MAGSA Rates. you're talking about a BIG chunk of Change. Their guys at OAK could just as easily work at SFO. since you can see one from the other.
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 601
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: Norwegian Air to Consolidate All Routes in the Bay Area to SFO

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:49 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
"Undeniable success for OAK"? On what planet?


It would be interesting to hear them speak honestly about 1. What has changed this decade to drive all Bay Area growth to SFO (and a lesser extent SJC) and 2. What they are going to do to change this dynamic going forward, but it's not really in their job description to have honest, frank discussions about bad news. From what we can see, Norwegian's experiment at OAK was on balance a success; if they thought they could have made more money at SJC, SMF, PDX, DEN, etc at any point they would have grown there instead of OAK. It can be possible that OAK was a success for DY and that they feel they can be even more successful at SFO.

I hope they fail though


San Jose has grown dramatically. From their low of around 8.2MM passengers in 2012 to over 15MM today. OAK hasn't seen the same growth as the other two but has also grown around 4MM over the past several years.


Yes SJC has grown more, from 8.2 to 14.3 compared to OAK from 9.2 to 13.6, Meanwhile, SFO has basically added a full OAK/SJC in just the past 5 years. SFO has added almost 30 million passengers since its recent low in 2003, while OAK has treaded water and SJC has grown ~4 mil. I don't know why everyone wants to fly to SFO now, when they didn't in 2005, 2000, 1995, etc. San Francisco has always been the business and tourist hub of the region, but OAK/SJC have traditionally had a much larger share of the market's air traffic than they currently do.

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