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UA857
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Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:16 pm

With 737 MAX production being suspended in Janurary should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?
 
Noshow
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:36 pm

AFAIK the supply line has been converted to MAX parts only. And the NG is not as capable and competitive as the (working) MAX.
 
chiad
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:37 pm

UA857 wrote:
With 737 MAX production being suspended in Janurary should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?


Is that even possible as the last NG was just delivered to KLM?
 
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hic787
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:42 pm

Would customer want the NG? The Max may return within the next 6 months. I don't think they'd really want the NG in comparison to the Max's cost savings even if it means waiting a bit more time
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:46 pm

Everything is possible ... it's just a function of time and money. The OP hasn't offered any analysis of how long and how much money it might take to restart the NG supply chain, how many MAX aircraft sales might be displaced by added NGs, or at what prices (and margins) more NGs might sell - among many other important questions.

This ought to be rolled into the big MAX grounding thread -- it offers nothing new.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:55 pm

Simple logic:
You buy 2019 Ford Explorer
Ford give you 2018 Ford Explorer
You not get what you buy

Airline buy 737 MAX
Boeing give you 737NG
You not get what you buy

If an airline bought the 737 MAX, they don't want the 737NG.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
amcnd
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:19 pm

The only way out of this mess is build a “757” neo... yes it will take 5-10 years to complete, but it just needs to be done..
 
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scbriml
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:20 pm

amcnd wrote:
The only way out of this mess is build a “757” neo... yes it will take 5-10 years to complete, but it just needs to be done..


How does that fix the MAX problems? :confused:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:32 pm

The simple answer is yes.
The Max has 70% parts commonality with the NG.
Out of the remaining 30%, engines are a big factor, but CFM should be able to shift production back to the CFM56's in no time.

If Boeing expected to resume MAX production within 6 months from suspension, they wouldn't have suspended it.

If you read through the Boeing PR, it states that their MAX workers are going to be reshuffled to "other B737 tasks".

The MAX burns less fuel, but is also more expensive to purchase than the NG, and immediate NG's would mean airlines can earn money on them and get a killer deal on them, plus they won't be in a hurry to return the MAXes to service once it's cleared. Remember, public perception will need time to heal. Boeing can get revenues going to keep overhead, payroll and pay less compensations, so it's the right call to make and they're probably already working on this, hence the delay in suspending the production as opposed to halting it immediately.
So February and perhaps part of March no B737's would be produced but I expect them to be up and running by March/April with NG production and first deliveries by the summer to customers expecting MAXes..
Even if Boeing produces only 500 additional stopgap NG's, it makes sense.
At least, that's what I would do.

Most MAX operators have B737NG's in the fleet, so not a problem at all, many have been adding NG's as it is as MAX stopgaps.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:48 pm

This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321. Boeing dropped the ball thinking the 737 MAX could be a 757 alternative for airlines.
 
KarlB737
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:53 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
Simple logic:
Airline buy 737 MAX
Boeing give you 737NG
You not get what you buy.


Airline buy 737 NG
You get a proven safe aircraft with no issues.
You get to solve your capacity issues without waiting forever for a MAX resolution.
You possess an aircraft the passengers will not hesitate to board.
Your airline becomes totally disconnected from the MAX issue.
You can include in your advertising of the airline that it is totally MAX free.
You acquire additional fliers that want to avoid the MAX due to fear.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:12 am

KarlB737 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
Simple logic:
Airline buy 737 MAX
Boeing give you 737NG
You not get what you buy.


Airline buy 737 NG
You get a proven safe aircraft with no issues.
You get to solve your capacity issues without waiting forever for a MAX resolution.
You possess an aircraft the passengers will not hesitate to board.
Your airline becomes totally disconnected from the MAX issue.
You can include in your advertising of the airline that it is totally MAX free.
You acquire additional fliers that want to avoid the MAX due to fear.


Don't forget that you'll likely wait at least 1.5 to 2 years to get one, and the MAX resmes flights well before then...
 
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vatveng
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:26 am

How easily it's done aside, didn't Boeing deliver some 767s to 787 customers during that program's delay?
 
TheWorm123
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:50 am

DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321. Boeing dropped the ball thinking the 737 MAX could be a 757 alternative for airlines.


Jet2/LS is a good example with their 757’s now turning 30, they’ve bought a bunch of 5-6 year old ex-TCX A321’s to replace them while the rest of the fleet will be 737-800’s.

I mean the 757 was a sub fleet in the first place but now they’ll have to retrain their 757 pilots to fly Airbuses. Only other Airbus currently operated is G-VYGL, a wet leased A330.
752 753 A332
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:56 am

bob75013 wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
Simple logic:
Airline buy 737 MAX
Boeing give you 737NG
You not get what you buy.


Airline buy 737 NG
You get a proven safe aircraft with no issues.
You get to solve your capacity issues without waiting forever for a MAX resolution.
You possess an aircraft the passengers will not hesitate to board.
Your airline becomes totally disconnected from the MAX issue.
You can include in your advertising of the airline that it is totally MAX free.
You acquire additional fliers that want to avoid the MAX due to fear.


Don't forget that you'll likely wait at least 1.5 to 2 years to get one, and the MAX resmes flights well before then...


Unlikely, the MAX is a NG with different engine, pylon, electronic interface and landing gear.
All the rest is pretty much the same, so they can wipe out the minor differences pretty easily.
If they are already working on this, 5-6 months lead time is sufficient if they send the specs to the suppliers yesterday.

The real hold up could be airlines taking time in deciding to swap the orders to NG or to stay on Boeing's meager compensation program while having no clear outlook, each of these will essentially be order conversion campaigns for the sales teams, airlines then need to assemble the boards, get the green light, perhaps some will get it in their minds issue an RFP to Airbus to get the best deal possible.

Remember, this grounding was supposed to be cleared by the end of the summer. It's the end of the year and things are getting worse, not better.
 
ODwyerPW
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:12 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
Simple logic:
You buy 2019 Ford Explorer
Ford give you 2018 Ford Explorer
You not get what you buy

Airline buy 737 MAX
Boeing give you 737NG
You not get what you buy

If an airline bought the 737 MAX, they don't want the 737NG.


stated quite clearly, even in broken English.
learning never stops.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:25 am

UA857 wrote:
With 737 MAX production being suspended in Janurary should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?


Anew airplane is a 20-30 year investment. The fuel inefficiencies for 20-30 years would far out weigh the cost of waiting a year or 2 for the max to become airworthy.
 
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PITingres
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:29 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
... CFM should be able to shift production back to the CFM56's in no time.


I'm not at all sure that is the case. Some engine parts like casings are very long lead time items. I think it's entirely likely that no new CFM56-7 casings have been produced for a couple years; or if they have been, it may be at a very much reduced rate. I have no inside knowledge, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out that it would take a year or more to restart CFM56-7 production in volume.
Fly, you fools! Fly!
 
planecane
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:47 am

DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321. Boeing dropped the ball thinking the 737 MAX could be a 757 alternative for airlines.


umm... you do realize that the A319-A321 are essentially the same thing as the 737-7 - 737-10. Just because Airbus decided, for whatever reason, to name the shrinks and stretches with a different model number instead of a number after a dash doesn't make them different aircraft. There are some differences, especially with the A321 but they are not major differences and don't make it a different model. They are all part of the A320 series. The A319 is a shrink and the A321 is a stretch.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:08 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
UA857 wrote:
With 737 MAX production being suspended in Janurary should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?


Anew airplane is a 20-30 year investment. The fuel inefficiencies for 20-30 years would far out weigh the cost of waiting a year or 2 for the max to become airworthy.


20 years x 3500 hours x 15% of 2.5 tons per hour fuel burn x 600 USD per ton = 15.750.000 USD

It's in the ballpark, not insurmountable.
If Boeing/CFM can discount NG's by 10.000.000 USD over a MAX, Boeing can save on compensations to customers and suppliers, get revenue against payroll, avoid lawsuits from suppliers and customers, customer airlines get a bargain with certain savings on capital costs, won't have a whole bunch of pax avoiding them initially after MAX RTS, airlines get a clear timeframe and can build a business plan around it, etc...

We're not talking about converting all MAX orders, but a fraction, limited to existing NG customers, until a clear timeline for RTS is defined and the production can resume.

If they had started this in March, they would have been producing NG's by now.

You don't want to be in Q2 2020 and still wondering about MAX RTS without any plan.
Customers could start cancelling orders in mass, that's also one thing that Boeing needs to worry about.

The production capacity is there and idling, it wouldn't be like ramping up an existing production already running at full steam.

As illustrated in another thread, another risk is that Airbus would swoop up production capacity at common suppliers for the A220/A320 and B737MAX, making it difficult to restart high rate B737 MAX production.
An example here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/spirit-aer ... 1572533311
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:20 am

vatveng wrote:
How easily it's done aside, didn't Boeing deliver some 767s to 787 customers during that program's delay?

The 767 line was not shutdown and is still running (just putting out cargo and military variants), with Boeing at the ready for any potential (yet unlikely) new commercial orders. In this case, the assembly line has completely shifted to Max, with suppliers only filling NG-variants like the P-8A/I and BBJs (if any).

It's easier than restarting a whole line from scratch, but still not as easy as some may think.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:23 am

BBJs have converted to the MAX, 21 of them grounded.

GF
 
Lufthansa
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:41 am

hic787 wrote:
Would customer want the NG? The Max may return within the next 6 months. I don't think they'd really want the NG in comparison to the Max's cost savings even if it means waiting a bit more time


exactly. they'll just buy an a320neo instead
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:05 am

If Boeing is willing to restart the 737NG production, it means that MAX is really in big trouble which grounding could last for years.
So no news is good news for MAX.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:07 am

ODwyerPW wrote:
stated quite clearly, even in broken English.


That was a joke, to prove how simple the logic was. I am a native speaker of English.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:25 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
Simple logic:
You buy 2019 Ford Explorer
Ford give you 2018 Ford Explorer
You not get what you buy

Airline buy 737 MAX
Boeing give you 737NG
You not get what you buy

If an airline bought the 737 MAX, they don't want the 737NG.


A 737NG is more like a 2000 Ford Explorer than a 2018 Ford Explorer. :D
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
RawSushi
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:13 am

A more palatable option for the airlines (not necessarily Boeing, but under some circumstances it may be in their interest to do it), is to restart building NGs, but instead of depending on airlines to switch the orders, make them available for lease to airlines desperately short on capacity due to the MAX grounding.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:39 am

DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321.

That makes no sense.

You criticize Boeing for having a multi-stretched decades-old design that's tasked to cover all mainline missions under 200 seats; then one sentence later, applaud Airbus for having done the exact same thing with a multi-stretched decades-old design.

:confused:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
716131
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:15 am

Some NG's has been build but one of them has not been delivered according to Wikipedia. One of them are belong to China United Airlines (KN).
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:04 pm

vatveng wrote:
How easily it's done aside, didn't Boeing deliver some 767s to 787 customers during that program's delay?


The Dreamliner delay was at the beginning of 2013
...
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 787-8 7. Dec. 2012
United Airlines USA North America 787-8 14. Dec. 2012
Air India India South Asia 787-8 19. Dec. 2012
Qatar Airways Qatar Middle East 787-8 19. Dec. 2012
All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. Japan East Asia 787-8 20. Dec. 2012
Japan Airlines Japan East Asia 787-8 20. Dec. 2012
LOT Polish Airlines Poland Europe 787-8 20. Dec. 2012
Qatar Airways Qatar Middle East 787-8 20. Dec. 2012
United Airlines USA North America 787-8 20. Dec. 2012
United Airlines USA North America 787-8 27. Dec. 2012
Air India India South Asia 787-8 28. Dec. 2012
Air India India South Asia 787-8 28. Mar. 2013
All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. Japan East Asia 787-8 14. May. 2013

Looking at the delivery schedule for the B767-300ER I don't see any obvious substitutions for the B787-8.

LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 5. Jul. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 27. Jul. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 16. Aug. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 26. Sep. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 16. Oct. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 13. Nov. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 11. Dec. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 19. Dec. 2012
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 22. Feb. 2013
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 30. Apr. 2013
MIAT Mongolian Airlines Mongolia Central Asia 767-300ER 13. May. 2013
Uzbekistan Airways Uzbekistan Central Asia 767-300ER 14. May. 2013
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 20. May. 2013
LATAM Airlines Group Chile South America 767-300ER 25. Jun. 2013
Uzbekistan Airways Uzbekistan Central Asia 767-300ER 28. Jun. 2013
Air Astana Kazakhstan Central Asia 767-300ER 25. Sep. 2013
Air Astana Kazakhstan Central Asia 767-300ER 18. Oct. 2013
Air Astana Kazakhstan Central Asia 767-300ER 26. Jun. 2014
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:19 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321.

That makes no sense.

You criticize Boeing for having a multi-stretched decades-old design that's tasked to cover all mainline missions under 200 seats; then one sentence later, applaud Airbus for having done the exact same thing with a multi-stretched decades-old design.

:confused:


The fallacy of your argument is, that the A320 is in every way a modern design.

It is wrong to look at years only, when you want to judge if a design is aged or not. The 737 is a design from the sixties, no remarkable advance on the standard at that time.

Aircraft design in the following years advanced in bounds and leaps. When the A320 came out 20 years later, it was revolutionary, a clear advance on the standard at that time. The first commercial aircraft with a digital FBW, opening design possibilities that were completely new.
It was designed for expansion, right from the start. The A321 and also the A319 shrink planed, when the A320 family was designed.

The A320 family has not yet been stretched past the original design parameters.
 
Noshow
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:39 pm

However they are in the process to do so.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:55 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
UA857 wrote:
With 737 MAX production being suspended in Janurary should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?


Anew airplane is a 20-30 year investment. The fuel inefficiencies for 20-30 years would far out weigh the cost of waiting a year or 2 for the max to become airworthy.


20 years x 3500 hours x 15% of 2.5 tons per hour fuel burn x 600 USD per ton = 15.750.000 USD

It's in the ballpark, not insurmountable.


And if you have a fleet of 150? That's a lot of money.

And if you're Southwest, you'd be talking about a metric shit-ton of dollars.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
m66
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:59 pm

Will Northwest fly with their DC-9s again?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:27 pm

It is funny you should mention the Ford Explorer

2018 to 2019 underwent a major engine change. Now a rear wheel drive eco boost engine

If Ford called an offered me a new 2018 model, I would take it in a heartbeat and gladly return to them my underpowered 2019 Explorer

Back to the Max...

The biggest problems on delivery were the size of the Lavs. Customers that bought this plane couldnt have foreseen this fiasco

Something has to give...and quickly
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
UA857 wrote:
With 737 MAX production being suspended in Janurary should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?


Anew airplane is a 20-30 year investment. The fuel inefficiencies for 20-30 years would far out weigh the cost of waiting a year or 2 for the max to become airworthy.


20 years x 3500 hours x 15% of 2.5 tons per hour fuel burn x 600 USD per ton = 15.750.000 USD

It's in the ballpark, not insurmountable.
If Boeing/CFM can discount NG's by 10.000.000 USD over a MAX, Boeing can save on compensations to customers and suppliers, get revenue against payroll, avoid lawsuits from suppliers and customers, customer airlines get a bargain with certain savings on capital costs, won't have a whole bunch of pax avoiding them initially after MAX RTS, airlines get a clear timeframe and can build a business plan around it, etc...

We're not talking about converting all MAX orders, but a fraction, limited to existing NG customers, until a clear timeline for RTS is defined and the production can resume.

If they had started this in March, they would have been producing NG's by now.

You don't want to be in Q2 2020 and still wondering about MAX RTS without any plan.
Customers could start cancelling orders in mass, that's also one thing that Boeing needs to worry about.

The production capacity is there and idling, it wouldn't be like ramping up an existing production already running at full steam.

As illustrated in another thread, another risk is that Airbus would swoop up production capacity at common suppliers for the A220/A320 and B737MAX, making it difficult to restart high rate B737 MAX production.
An example here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/spirit-aer ... 1572533311


I’m trying to follow your math here so please correct me if I’m wrong.

You are figuring 3500 hours a year? That’s an average of 9.6 hours a day. That utilization is extremely low. I don’t know the actual average but I would atleast double that number.

Next you had 2.5 tons of fuel per hour. The 737 burns at least that per engine per hour. So that atleast needs to be doubled.

A ton of fuel is 660 is dollars at 2.20 a gallon. I’m sure you will say that I’m being picky but when you are talking millions of dollars a 66 dollar difference is incredibly big.

Your number is easily doubled and that’s only for 1 NG vs. MAX
 
ODwyerPW
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:18 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
ODwyerPW wrote:
stated quite clearly, even in broken English.


That was a joke, to prove how simple the logic was. I am a native speaker of English.


yeah, I knew that. I was just having fun with it as well.
learning never stops.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:15 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321.

That makes no sense.

You criticize Boeing for having a multi-stretched decades-old design that's tasked to cover all mainline missions under 200 seats; then one sentence later, applaud Airbus for having done the exact same thing with a multi-stretched decades-old design.

:confused:


The fallacy of your argument is, that the A320 is in every way a modern design.

It is wrong to look at years only, when you want to judge if a design is aged or not. The 737 is a design from the sixties, no remarkable advance on the standard at that time.

Aircraft design in the following years advanced in bounds and leaps. When the A320 came out 20 years later, it was revolutionary, a clear advance on the standard at that time. The first commercial aircraft with a digital FBW, opening design possibilities that were completely new.
It was designed for expansion, right from the start. The A321 and also the A319 shrink planed, when the A320 family was designed.

The A320 family has not yet been stretched past the original design parameters.

And if this were three decades ago, I'd be screaming its praises.

But it's not, so this comes off as contrived, because that same "unremarkable" '60s design was able to effectively stalemate the "revolutionary" new design in just about every parameter, for more than a quarter century... and not solely, or even primarily, due to production limitation.

Airbus may currently be surfing the peak of the A32X's wave of prowess against the 737, but they're about to befall the same problem as Boeing had, in short order. They've already got the cockpit tech, new engine, new wingtip devices-- would a new wing be sufficient to save the A32X against whatever Boeing (or even someone else) does next?

I certainly wouldn't conclude that with much confidence. Not sure why anyone else would either.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Revelation
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:27 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
hic787 wrote:
Would customer want the NG? The Max may return within the next 6 months. I don't think they'd really want the NG in comparison to the Max's cost savings even if it means waiting a bit more time

exactly. they'll just buy an a320neo instead

Sure, if they are willing to wait till at least 2025 to take delivery, retrain their pilots, FAs, maintenance and dispatch teams, buy new spares, get access to different sims, rewrite all their internal documentation, and in some cases, end up with less seats per plane and perhaps worse economy as well.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Sokes
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:27 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
20 years x 3500 hours x 15% of 2.5 tons per hour fuel burn x 600 USD per ton = 15.750.000 USD

It's in the ballpark, not insurmountable.
If Boeing/CFM can discount NG's by 10.000.000 USD over a MAX, Boeing can ...

...another risk is that Airbus would swoop up production capacity at common suppliers for the A220/A320 and B737MAX, making it difficult to restart high rate B737 MAX production.
...


Excellent points. And if Airbus expands manufacturing in the US, that may even be politically possible.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
AA747123
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:32 pm

I doubt they would. There is more to a max than different engines. The max has redesigned components like the tail cone, landing hear etc. By the time production is re-started/re-vamped the Max will have been back in the air for some time.
 
milhaus
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:47 pm

They should make 737MiniMAX , using already built MAX frames and match them with good old CFM56-7 taken from scrapped and stored NGs;-)
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:22 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That makes no sense.

You criticize Boeing for having a multi-stretched decades-old design that's tasked to cover all mainline missions under 200 seats; then one sentence later, applaud Airbus for having done the exact same thing with a multi-stretched decades-old design.

:confused:


The fallacy of your argument is, that the A320 is in every way a modern design.

It is wrong to look at years only, when you want to judge if a design is aged or not. The 737 is a design from the sixties, no remarkable advance on the standard at that time.

Aircraft design in the following years advanced in bounds and leaps. When the A320 came out 20 years later, it was revolutionary, a clear advance on the standard at that time. The first commercial aircraft with a digital FBW, opening design possibilities that were completely new.
It was designed for expansion, right from the start. The A321 and also the A319 shrink planed, when the A320 family was designed.

The A320 family has not yet been stretched past the original design parameters.

And if this were three decades ago, I'd be screaming its praises.

But it's not, so this comes off as contrived, because that same "unremarkable" '60s design was able to effectively stalemate the "revolutionary" new design in just about every parameter, for more than a quarter century... and not solely, or even primarily, due to production limitation.

Airbus may currently be surfing the peak of the A32X's wave of prowess against the 737, but they're about to befall the same problem as Boeing had, in short order. They've already got the cockpit tech, new engine, new wingtip devices-- would a new wing be sufficient to save the A32X against whatever Boeing (or even someone else) does next?

I certainly wouldn't conclude that with much confidence. Not sure why anyone else would either.


I do not see much stalemating. The A320 family went from 0 market share to today 60%

The A320 family does not run on endless exemptions from the rules. The frames are heavier than the comparable 737 models (less difference between neo and MAX), but how much heavier would 737 be if Boeing was forced to make them 16 g compliant?

Now the A320 is about to get it's second wind and sales are mainly constricted by production.

Yes, I would expect a new Boeing design to leapfrog the A320 family, but putting real distance between them? New engines will always be available for both, otherwise what could they do, 5%? And how much of that would be in a new wing?
Airbus does a new wing and the new wing box and the difference is nearly gone.

If Boeing does not do a new frame, I expect their market share to shrink further.
 
ukoverlander
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:25 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Everything is possible ... it's just a function of time and money. The OP hasn't offered any analysis of how long and how much money it might take to restart the NG supply chain, how many MAX aircraft sales might be displaced by added NGs, or at what prices (and margins) more NGs might sell - among many other important questions.

This ought to be rolled into the big MAX grounding thread -- it offers nothing new.


The Max grounding thread is a waste of space. Who wants to wade through thousands of posts. The unwillingness to create new MAX threads is disappointing in my view.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:29 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I do not see much stalemating. The A320 family went from 0 market share to today 60%

Come one dude, don't feign dumb. You REALLY need the difference between a competitive stalemate from competing products over three decades' worth of competition, versus entry and growth of a new competitor in the early days of its existence, explained?

You've made better arguments than that.



mjoelnir wrote:
The A320 family does not run on endless exemptions from the rules. The frames are heavier than the comparable 737 models (less difference between neo and MAX), but how much heavier would 737 be if Boeing was forced to make them 16 g compliant?

Meh, how much could Airbus have invested into the program to make it such, without multiple exemptions for startup capital? That game can be played in multiple dimensions, and quite frankly, I'm not interested in doing so; as both were done within relative regulatory compliance.


mjoelnir wrote:
If Boeing does not do a new frame, I expect their market share to shrink further.

Of course it will, and it's seemingly apparent that they should've done THAT instead of making the lawn ornaments that they have now.



ukoverlander wrote:
The Max grounding thread is a waste of space. Who wants to wade through thousands of posts. The unwillingness to create new MAX threads is disappointing in my view.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
I'll never in a million years understand why this site has so oddly decided to go in that direction. We're expected to wade through threads with 500 posts of speculation, to find where an airline finally makes an official announcement.

Who honestly thinks that THAT'S a good idea??
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:50 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
I do not see much stalemating. The A320 family went from 0 market share to today 60%

Come one dude, don't feign dumb. You REALLY need the difference between a competitive stalemate from competing products over three decades' worth of competition, versus entry and growth of a new competitor in the early days of its existence?

You've made better arguments than that.


It is actually the absolut right argument, in an industry that puts nearly insurmountable odds on the new entry.

And the endpoint the superior better selling product is a fact.

LAX772LR wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The A320 family does not run on endless exemptions from the rules. The frames are heavier than the comparable 737 models (less difference between neo and MAX), but how much heavier would 737 be if Boeing was forced to make them 16 g compliant?

Meh, how much could Airbus have invested into the program to make it such, without multiple exemptions for startup capital? That game can be played in multiple dimensions, and quite frankly, I'm not interested in doing so; as both done in both regards were within compliance.


If we look at the financial side Boeing is hardly the white knight in regards to subsidies.
In regards to the A320 family, the governments giving the launch aid (not banned per se, just not at under market interest rates) made a killing on the royalties,

If I talk about exemptions from the rules, I mean the rules how to build a safe airplane. Every time the FAA made a push, like for example with EICAS, Boeing did shed crocodile tears, told the FAA that would be expensive and the FAA backed down.
I mean, why make rules when one competitor gets exemptions?

The game ended with the FAA backing off this time to much.

LAX772LR wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
If Boeing does not do a new frame, I expect their market share to shrink further.

Of course it will, and it's seemingly apparent that they should've done THAT instead of making the lawn ornaments that they have now.


We seem to be in agreement on one point. I just doubt that the management of Boeing has got that message.

LAX772LR wrote:
ukoverlander wrote:
The Max grounding thread is a waste of space. Who wants to wade through thousands of posts. The unwillingness to create new MAX threads is disappointing in my view.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
I'll never in a million years understand why this site has so oddly decided to go in that direction. We're expected to wade through threads with 500 posts of speculation, to find where an airline finally makes an official announcement.

Who honestly thinks that THAT'S a good idea??
 
mwhcvt
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:20 pm

Strictly speaking are not Boeing still building 737NGs in the form of all the different defence orders? I know they are a somewhat different beast again ie not exactly a stock frame but I’m sure there’s a line still building them at Renton for the likes of the Poseidon ordered my the RAF that’s just taken delivery of its first, im not sure if things like the C40 also came of this line

Like has been said earlier put enough money in and anything is possible

but would Boeing even want to consider it as it would be a massive admission that actually the max is not months but maybe years from regaining its wings, I’d not be surprised if there were not already back room talk of lawsuits and SEC filings as Boeing has to some extent misled the market with its rolling extensions to the grounding, so the markets have had the shock imagine if almost a year ago Boeing had told the markets its biggest selling aircraft was going to be grounded over a year I’d wager there would have been a much bigger share price hit, and for longer, not to mention more cancellations from customers
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
StrandedAtMKG
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:26 am

DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321. Boeing dropped the ball thinking the 737 MAX could be a 757 alternative for airlines.


This is so accurate it hurts. Boeing got caught with their pants down by discontinuing the 757 ten years too early and not launching a 757NG, and they're paying dearly for it. Airbus is cleaning their clock with the A321, and now by haphazardly rushing the 737MAX into production and ignoring safety in the process, they've literally killed people and they've almost killed the company. I can't believe heads aren't rolling in Chicago.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:46 am

StrandedAtMKG wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
This is what you get when you stretch an old design to cover the gapping hole left in your lineup. The 737 covers all missions up to the 787. Think about how stupid that is. Airbus has the 319-321. No 757 or replacement Airbus is killing Boeing with the 321. Boeing dropped the ball thinking the 737 MAX could be a 757 alternative for airlines.


This is so accurate it hurts. Boeing got caught with their pants down by discontinuing the 757 ten years too early and not launching a 757NG, and they're paying dearly for it. Airbus is cleaning their clock with the A321, and now by haphazardly rushing the 737MAX into production and ignoring safety in the process, they've literally killed people and they've almost killed the company. I can't believe heads aren't rolling in Chicago.


The A321 XLR is s much lighter plane. Maybe a 757-200 MAX could have had more payload range performance, but it wasn't going to be light enough to compete against the baseline A321 NEO. Most of the A321 NEO's on order are not for the longest range applications. Boeing would still need the 737-10, because a MAX'ed out 757 would still be too heavy. Also there were no engines in the 40+ Klbs range available for an updated 757.
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2637
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Re: Should Boeing extend 737 NG production to cover over the MAX?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:37 am

Revelation wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:
[
Sure, if they are willing to wait till at least 2025 to take delivery, retrain their pilots, FAs, maintenance and dispatch teams, buy new spares, get access to different sims, rewrite all their internal documentation, and in some cases, end up with less seats per plane and perhaps worse economy as well.



You can't really believe that's the case? Firstly if you follow that logic through everyone would be still flying 727s.
Next it's already been successfully done. Airlines like Easyjet switched to A320 family aircraft, SAS to the 737 (from MD80) and now back to the A320 etc.
Next all that equipment you speak of has to be eventually updated and replaced anyway, so it's a good time do it. You can't put
off capital infrastructure indefinitely as much as Southwest likes this argument. We're not still using the same ground equipment and sims etc
that were purchased in the 1970s and hell, a good chunk of the ppl who operated them aren't even alive anymore.

Airbus can ramp up its non euro factories if needed. But these are long term decisions. Waiting a bit longer is sometimes necessary.
Look how many airlines were prepared to wait longer for the 787?

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