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jumbojettony
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Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:39 pm

Hey there everyone!

Firstly, happy holidays to all.

I was just thinking, its coming up on 13 years from when the first 777s were delivered to Air Canada. Sooner or later these will have to be replaced along with the a333 (even though they keep adding used frames). Seeing as they have been affected by the recent Max issues what are the chances we see them go with the 777x (with a decent discount due to the issues)?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:51 pm

The A333 will have to be replaced long before the 77W. AC's first 777 arrived in 2007, and AC is no stranger to operating their frames for their entire service lives (see the 31 year old 767s still proudly wearing the rondelle). Realistically,the entire 777 fleet has another 10+ years of service life left at AC. The A333s are largely a fair bit older, the original 8 are 18-20 years old, so they will have to have a replacement plan built in about 5 years time, anticipating a 30 year life span which seems likely as they are all going into cabin refits and new paint in the not to distant future (first one for the new cabin is GFAJ if memory serves, should be out of refits soon).

I would suggest that there are two options on the table when it comes to their replacement, either go Boeing and order more 787s to replace the A333s, and 777-9s to replace the 777s. The advantages this presents are ease of integration, they already operate types from both families, and the 787 is particularly flexible in that the -10 can be ordered which would be a beast for AC's huge TATL network. On the large en however, this leaves AC without a really effective ULH weapon to cover routes like SYD and HKG which are crucial routes for AC. The 777-9 may be too large to effectively serve these markets, the 777-8 too unique to justify ordering and the 787-9 too small.

Option two would be to order a mix of A350s, with the 1000s eventually replacing the 777s and maybe some 900s to replace the A333s. This would be a solid option as it would keep allow for AC to have a really well sized widebody fleet, with seat counts going something like: 788 - 250, 789-300, A359-330, A35J Low Density-370, A35J HD-400. The downside is they lose the size of the 777 on the high end which is important for lower yielding high volume routes, but they gain a more efficient and flexible platform ULH flying.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:10 pm

I don't see the 777s going anywhere soon. Their newest high-density -300ER is only just over 3 years old! At 13, their oldest examples are not even mid-life. AC's original A320 is still in the fleet and will turn 30 years of age next month. I think the MAX debacle will have to settle down first before AC makes big fleet moves, the impact on capital is far too big if the MAX fails to be re-certified. No longer a remote possibility, and one that can cause AC to eat a fair bit of money. On the other hand if the MAX pulls out of intensive care fit to fly again, some more Boeing wide-bodies at deeply discounted prices might be in the cards as a form of compensation. Perhaps 787-10s to replace the A330s? More 9s? I don't think though, that AC will replace the triple 7 until they don't owe another dime to the airline. They seem to be working very well.

I think it will be another 15 years before the last one leaves the fleet. By then, I'll be 76 years old. I'll be on bonus time then.

Beech
 
alexdelzotto1
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:16 pm

I would expect some highly discounted 787's could be possible to eventually replace the rouge 767 fleet.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:24 pm

alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I would expect some highly discounted 787's could be possible to eventually replace the rouge 767 fleet.


The Rouge 763s replacement may come down to how TS integrates with AC when (and still if i guess?) the takeover occurs. Also 787s or A330NEOs would both be possible options, maybe in combination with A321XLRs to replace the lower end 763 routes and the A321s.

As for the AC 77L/77W, maybe 2025 or later AC might start looking at a replacement... no rush for sure.

The A330s... still a few more years, get the MAX sorted out, TS takeover done and then see... A big order for 40-50 A330-900s to replace all the AC 333s, ROU 763s and TS 332/333s might be a possibility.
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jumbojettony
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:24 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
The A333 will have to be replaced long before the 77W. AC's first 777 arrived in 2007, and AC is no stranger to operating their frames for their entire service lives (see the 31 year old 767s still proudly wearing the rondelle). Realistically,the entire 777 fleet has another 10+ years of service life left at AC. The A333s are largely a fair bit older, the original 8 are 18-20 years old, so they will have to have a replacement plan built in about 5 years time, anticipating a 30 year life span which seems likely as they are all going into cabin refits and new paint in the not to distant future (first one for the new cabin is GFAJ if memory serves, should be out of refits soon).

I would suggest that there are two options on the table when it comes to their replacement, either go Boeing and order more 787s to replace the A333s, and 777-9s to replace the 777s. The advantages this presents are ease of integration, they already operate types from both families, and the 787 is particularly flexible in that the -10 can be ordered which would be a beast for AC's huge TATL network. On the large en however, this leaves AC without a really effective ULH weapon to cover routes like SYD and HKG which are crucial routes for AC. The 777-9 may be too large to effectively serve these markets, the 777-8 too unique to justify ordering and the 787-9 too small.

Option two would be to order a mix of A350s, with the 1000s eventually replacing the 777s and maybe some 900s to replace the A333s. This would be a solid option as it would keep allow for AC to have a really well sized widebody fleet, with seat counts going something like: 788 - 250, 789-300, A359-330, A35J Low Density-370, A35J HD-400. The downside is they lose the size of the 777 on the high end which is important for lower yielding high volume routes, but they gain a more efficient and flexible platform ULH flying.


Thanks for the break down. They definitely will have some options but like you mentioned, doesn't look like it will happen any time soon. Wonder what they will do with the 767s at rouge and the transat fleet after all that has been settled.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:32 pm

AC is not SQ to replace aircraft so soon in the cycle. So the 333/77W's still have a lot of life left.

Since AC is tilting towards Boeing as of now, the 77W's can be replaced in due course with the 777-9. There is no real replacement for the A333 fleet as the 787-9 is a bit of overkill for these. Maybe they can make them work.

The A320 fleet replacement is what has me worried. They were supposed to be gone by 2020? With the 737MAX screwup that is clearly not going to happen!
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777ER
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:42 pm

whywhyzee wrote:

I would suggest that there are two options on the table when it comes to their replacement, either go Boeing and order more 787s to replace the A333s, and 777-9s to replace the 777s. The advantages this presents are ease of integration, they already operate types from both families, and the 787 is particularly flexible in that the -10 can be ordered which would be a beast for AC's huge TATL network. On the large en however, this leaves AC without a really effective ULH weapon to cover routes like SYD and HKG which are crucial routes for AC. The 777-9 may be too large to effectively serve these markets, the 777-8 too unique to justify ordering and the 787-9 too small.

I wouldn't rule out the 789 as a 772LR replacement. Just need to look at what routes NZ will be/are currently using their B789s on. AKL-ORD and October AKL-EWR. NZs code 2 789 fleet has 275 seats compared to AC 772 fleet having 300 seats. Maybe some more J or Y+ seats for AC to offset the less seats?

Boeing also came to the party with the 787-10 extra range to secure NZs 772 replacement. Maybe AC could persuade Boeing to increase the 789 range to win the order?
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DCA350
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:54 pm

It comes down to which manufacturer is in vogue with AC at the time of the RFP. Right now Boeing has the edge but in a decade Airbus could be back in favor.. The A350 seems like a perfect replacement, especially since the NEO should be on offer by the time the 777s are up for replacement.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:58 pm

777ER wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:

I would suggest that there are two options on the table when it comes to their replacement, either go Boeing and order more 787s to replace the A333s, and 777-9s to replace the 777s. The advantages this presents are ease of integration, they already operate types from both families, and the 787 is particularly flexible in that the -10 can be ordered which would be a beast for AC's huge TATL network. On the large en however, this leaves AC without a really effective ULH weapon to cover routes like SYD and HKG which are crucial routes for AC. The 777-9 may be too large to effectively serve these markets, the 777-8 too unique to justify ordering and the 787-9 too small.

I wouldn't rule out the 789 as a 772LR replacement. Just need to look at what routes NZ will be/are currently using their B789s on. AKL-ORD and October AKL-EWR. NZs code 2 789 fleet has 275 seats compared to AC 772 fleet having 300 seats. Maybe some more J or Y+ seats for AC to offset the less seats?

Boeing also came to the party with the 787-10 extra range to secure NZs 772 replacement. Maybe AC could persuade Boeing to increase the 789 range to win the order?


Another highly possible option that they are likely exploring. I only wonder if the reduced size of the 789 would be a limiting factor, It already flies their longest route in it's current 300 seat configuration, but likely doesn't take much if any freight. Reducing the pax capacity could help carry more freight and would likely increase yield slightly, it also reduces overall capacity which might be detrimental moving forward unless they can increase frequencies which will be a challenge given slot limits at their hubs, a massive pilot shortage and bilateral limitations.
 
smartplane
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:05 am

whywhyzee wrote:
The A333s are largely a fair bit older, the original 8 are 18-20 years old, so they will have to have a replacement plan built in about 5 years time, anticipating a 30 year life span which seems likely as they are all going into cabin refits and new paint in the not to distant future (first one for the new cabin is GFAJ if memory serves, should be out of refits soon).

Most airlines are depreciating interior refurbishments off over 5-8 years (it's steadily reduced over the last decade), so your projection seems likely.

However, ignoring the US3, a new emerging trend is refurbishment plans are terminated part way before completion, where A & B make an offer the customer can't refuse, and either pay the cancellation fees or reward the contractors in other ways.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:47 am

alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I would expect some highly discounted 787's could be possible to eventually replace the rouge 767 fleet.


The newest 763's are only from 2003. The oldest A333 is from '98 also.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:19 am

whywhyzee wrote:
777ER wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:

I would suggest that there are two options on the table when it comes to their replacement, either go Boeing and order more 787s to replace the A333s, and 777-9s to replace the 777s. The advantages this presents are ease of integration, they already operate types from both families, and the 787 is particularly flexible in that the -10 can be ordered which would be a beast for AC's huge TATL network. On the large en however, this leaves AC without a really effective ULH weapon to cover routes like SYD and HKG which are crucial routes for AC. The 777-9 may be too large to effectively serve these markets, the 777-8 too unique to justify ordering and the 787-9 too small.

I wouldn't rule out the 789 as a 772LR replacement. Just need to look at what routes NZ will be/are currently using their B789s on. AKL-ORD and October AKL-EWR. NZs code 2 789 fleet has 275 seats compared to AC 772 fleet having 300 seats. Maybe some more J or Y+ seats for AC to offset the less seats?

Boeing also came to the party with the 787-10 extra range to secure NZs 772 replacement. Maybe AC could persuade Boeing to increase the 789 range to win the order?


Another highly possible option that they are likely exploring. I only wonder if the reduced size of the 789 would be a limiting factor, It already flies their longest route in it's current 300 seat configuration, but likely doesn't take much if any freight. Reducing the pax capacity could help carry more freight and would likely increase yield slightly, it also reduces overall capacity which might be detrimental moving forward unless they can increase frequencies which will be a challenge given slot limits at their hubs, a massive pilot shortage and bilateral limitations.


It will be interesting to see, the 77L I understand is typically used on YVR-SYD and YYZ-HKG because of freight? Both can be done with a 77W, though CX have a lower density 77W on YYZ-HKG. Does the 789 have a high enough MTOW for what AC wants? I would think we are several years away from any sort of decision given how long AC typically operate their aircraft for, will the 779 still be a viable 77W replacement around 2030? And do they need an aircraft bigger than the 77W?
 
HJM
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:35 am

Likely AC will look around for pre-owned deals of various aircraft as opportunities come. No big decisions will happen until MAX and TS situation resolved.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:55 am

Are any of Air Canada's hubs slot-restricted? If not, I'd expect the general trend of fragmentation and more point-to-point-oriented networks to influence AC.

787-10s could be their "big jet" for TATL services and integrate nicely with the current 787 fleet they have. The 777-200LR could probably be replaced by the A350-900.

Montreal's strategic location seems very suited for A321XLR Transatlantic services, too.

If Air Canada specifically needs jets in the 777-300 size class, presumably the A350-1000 will be their choice as its a very direct replacement. But we know the long-term trend is smaller jets going longer distances at higher frequencies (with the exception of cities like London but even Heathrow will eventually get a third runway... even though yes that will take time).
 
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zeke
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:24 am

777ER wrote:
I wouldn't rule out the 789 as a 772LR replacement.


I agree with the posters above that the AC 777 replacement decision is a way off, another 5 years.

777ER wrote:
Just need to look at what routes NZ will be/are currently using their B789s on. AKL-ORD and October AKL-EWR. NZs code 2 789 fleet has 275 seats compared to AC 772 fleet having 300 seats. Maybe some more J or Y+ seats for AC to offset the less seats?


They are doing those routes with the 787-9 with their lower capacity 787-9 (code 2) with restricted payload.


777ER wrote:
Boeing also came to the party with the 787-10 extra range to secure NZs 772 replacement. Maybe AC could persuade Boeing to increase the 789 range to win the order?


A lot of misinformation about the NZ 787-10 out there.

Extra range by a weight increase has never been confirmed by Boeing. NZ has said in Australian Aviation the GEnx was slight more fuel efficient

“On the decision to opt for GE Aviation rather than Rolls-Royce engines – which are on the existing 787-9 fleet – Luxon said the GEnx-1B powerplant gave Air New Zealand “that little bit more fuel-efficiency, which actually helped us getting to where we wanted to get to, and that is really one of the things we weighed up in the end”.”

From https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 787-order/

and NZ have later come out in an Australian Aviation article to say the 787-10s will use them for Pacific Rim routes. The 787-9 doing the long haul routes with restrictions on cargo.

NZ have also said they continue to look at the 777-X and A350 as the long haul replacement aircraft.

“ Luxon said the question of replacement for the airline’s seven 777-300ERs was a separate decision from the options on the 787-10.

“We’ve actually compartmentalised those decisions so our view at this point is that we would still need a replacement for the 777-300ER,” he said.

“Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame.”
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Scotron12
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:06 pm

777ER wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:

I would suggest that there are two options on the table when it comes to their replacement, either go Boeing and order more 787s to replace the A333s, and 777-9s to replace the 777s. The advantages this presents are ease of integration, they already operate types from both families, and the 787 is particularly flexible in that the -10 can be ordered which would be a beast for AC's huge TATL network. On the large en however, this leaves AC without a really effective ULH weapon to cover routes like SYD and HKG which are crucial routes for AC. The 777-9 may be too large to effectively serve these markets, the 777-8 too unique to justify ordering and the 787-9 too small.

I wouldn't rule out the 789 as a 772LR replacement. Just need to look at what routes NZ will be/are currently using their B789s on. AKL-ORD and October AKL-EWR. NZs code 2 789 fleet has 275 seats compared to AC 772 fleet having 300 seats. Maybe some more J or Y+ seats for AC to offset the less seats?

Boeing also came to the party with the 787-10 extra range to secure NZs 772 replacement. Maybe AC could persuade Boeing to increase the 789 range to win the order?


Find it difficult to see how they will fly a 275pax B787-9 AKL-EWR when UA cannot fly LAX-SIN with their 787-9 which only seats 252pax?
 
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:46 pm

Scotron12 wrote:

Find it difficult to see how they will fly a 275pax B787-9 AKL-EWR when UA cannot fly LAX-SIN with their 787-9 which only seats 252pax?

Can't, or chose not to as part of the general drawdown of its LAX long haul ops?
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:54 pm

Scotron12 wrote:

Find it difficult to see how they will fly a 275pax B787-9 AKL-EWR when UA cannot fly LAX-SIN with their 787-9 which only seats 252pax?


They might not use the 275pax 787-9. They may go for a subfleet for EWR and ORD.

Also, there's probably the issue of the winds. UA need to deal with a lot of westbound distance, a bit moreso than NZ have to.
 
YYZLGA
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:36 pm

Several Rouge 763s are pushing 30. It seems like that's the most urgent replacement, even if only for 5 or so aircraft. Will they be replaced by additions from the TS fleet?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:58 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
Several Rouge 763s are pushing 30. It seems like that's the most urgent replacement, even if only for 5 or so aircraft. Will they be replaced by additions from the TS fleet?


There's a lot of Rouge transborder flying that can easily be shifted into A321s without any issues, if capacity is an issue, they can easily add frequency. The rest of the rouge 767s are a fair bit younger. Doesn't make a ton of sense to plan their replacement just yet, especially with the TS deal hanging overhead.
 
tealnz
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:12 pm

zeke wrote:
777ER wrote:
I wouldn't rule out the 789 as a 772LR replacement.


I agree with the posters above that the AC 777 replacement decision is a way off, another 5 years.

777ER wrote:
Just need to look at what routes NZ will be/are currently using their B789s on. AKL-ORD and October AKL-EWR. NZs code 2 789 fleet has 275 seats compared to AC 772 fleet having 300 seats. Maybe some more J or Y+ seats for AC to offset the less seats?


They are doing those routes with the 787-9 with their lower capacity 787-9 (code 2) with restricted payload.


777ER wrote:
Boeing also came to the party with the 787-10 extra range to secure NZs 772 replacement. Maybe AC could persuade Boeing to increase the 789 range to win the order?


A lot of misinformation about the NZ 787-10 out there.

Extra range by a weight increase has never been confirmed by Boeing. NZ has said in Australian Aviation the GEnx was slight more fuel efficient

“On the decision to opt for GE Aviation rather than Rolls-Royce engines – which are on the existing 787-9 fleet – Luxon said the GEnx-1B powerplant gave Air New Zealand “that little bit more fuel-efficiency, which actually helped us getting to where we wanted to get to, and that is really one of the things we weighed up in the end”.”

From https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 787-order/

and NZ have later come out in an Australian Aviation article to say the 787-10s will use them for Pacific Rim routes. The 787-9 doing the long haul routes with restrictions on cargo.

NZ have also said they continue to look at the 777-X and A350 as the long haul replacement aircraft.

“ Luxon said the question of replacement for the airline’s seven 777-300ERs was a separate decision from the options on the 787-10.

“We’ve actually compartmentalised those decisions so our view at this point is that we would still need a replacement for the 777-300ER,” he said.

“Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame.”


Yes, and in fact Luxon said the 787-10s would mostly be used on Asian routes. What actual pax/cargo capability they will have westbound from US west coast is unclear - though the new UA 78J service may give us some clues.
 
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itripreport
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:57 pm

Personally I can't picture the 787 as a replacement for Rouge's fleet. But that's just me, while the 787 works well with airlines like scoot and Jetstar. I'd see the NMA as a better replacement, but not the 787 or A330.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:19 pm

What about some of Rouge's 767's being replaced by current mainline AC A330s while AC perhaps gradually works-in some A330neos to replace current 330s for a sizeable largely YUL-based maintain 330neo fleet of perhaps 15-20 frames?
 
TObound
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:44 pm

There's a lot of factors in play. The biggest ones I see:

1) The Air Transat merger. Increases fleet and configuration management complexity massively. But the combined larger fleet would also let them leverage larger discounts. No decisions can be made before they can figure out what their service and business model would be across the various brands after the merger. Does Transat stay a separate brand or merge with Rouge? Do the Transat 330s stay with 9ab or get reconfigured or replaced early?

2) Fragmentation and the rise of narrowbody TATL. AC hasn't jumped on the 321LR/XLR bandwagon yet. But narrowbody TATL suits them particularly well from non-hubs like YOW, YQB and YHZ. And opens up secondary European markets from hubs.

3) Hub congestion. YYZ is maxing out on prime time movements. And the terminals are getting crowded. New destinations and frequency increases have to be balanced with those constraints. And that plays into their fleet strategy.
 
billsalton92
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:47 pm

The 777's wont be reaching 20 years old if they can help it. Theres a strong possibility for a 350 order in the next few years. Talks ongoing with Airbus currently
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:05 am

billsalton92 wrote:
The 777's wont be reaching 20 years old if they can help it. Theres a strong possibility for a 350 order in the next few years. Talks ongoing with Airbus currently


Source?
 
TObound
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:27 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Are any of Air Canada's hubs slot-restricted?


LHR. And I only say that half-jokingly.

I could see 779s fielded just for LHR-YYZ/YUL/YVR, CDG-YUL/YVR and PEK-YYZ/YVR. At 400-450 seats, all of AC's 77Ws are relatively high density. The 779 would let them move to 450+ across their heavy lift fleet and with more premium seats. I just can't see how the 35K and 78J could be a substitute when that seating capacity is required on some routes already. What happens below this category is an open question. There's also sorts of combinations for what could work.

Also, look at where AC and TS overlap like Paris and the London markets where AC will want to consolidate at a single airport with fewer total frequencies to that city. That requires larger aircraft.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:39 am

billsalton92 wrote:
The 777's wont be reaching 20 years old if they can help it. Theres a strong possibility for a 350 order in the next few years. Talks ongoing with Airbus currently


I would imagine that the 777-200LR in particular is at risk of being retired early. They have a number of leased 777-300ERs too, which would likewise be at risk of early retirement.

As for the 777X, apart from being an oddball, Air Canada has now burnt itself on 2 new Boeing jets. I would imagine that they weren't too keen on another unproven Boeing design.
 
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precure787
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:04 am

May possibly the A350XWB, as Airbus claimed that the A350XWB is more fuel efficient than the 777 (regardless of variant).
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whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:04 am

TObound wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Are any of Air Canada's hubs slot-restricted?


LHR. And I only say that half-jokingly.

I could see 779s fielded just for LHR-YYZ/YUL/YVR, CDG-YUL/YVR and PEK-YYZ/YVR. At 400-450 seats, all of AC's 77Ws are relatively high density. The 779 would let them move to 450+ across their heavy lift fleet and with more premium seats. I just can't see how the 35K and 78J could be a substitute when that seating capacity is required on some routes already. What happens below this category is an open question. There's also sorts of combinations for what could work.

Also, look at where AC and TS overlap like Paris and the London markets where AC will want to consolidate at a single airport with fewer total frequencies to that city. That requires larger aircraft.


Not to nitpick, but YVR-CDG does not warrant a 779, nor does any Canada-PEK route. There are a ton of other routes that would justify it, but maybe not that exact list.
 
TObound
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:50 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
TObound wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Are any of Air Canada's hubs slot-restricted?


LHR. And I only say that half-jokingly.

I could see 779s fielded just for LHR-YYZ/YUL/YVR, CDG-YUL/YVR and PEK-YYZ/YVR. At 400-450 seats, all of AC's 77Ws are relatively high density. The 779 would let them move to 450+ across their heavy lift fleet and with more premium seats. I just can't see how the 35K and 78J could be a substitute when that seating capacity is required on some routes already. What happens below this category is an open question. There's also sorts of combinations for what could work.

Also, look at where AC and TS overlap like Paris and the London markets where AC will want to consolidate at a single airport with fewer total frequencies to that city. That requires larger aircraft.


Not to nitpick, but YVR-CDG does not warrant a 779, nor does any Canada-PEK route. There are a ton of other routes that would justify it, but maybe not that exact list.


Fingers faster than mind. Meant YYZ-CDG. You're right about Canada-PEK. I guess more traffic is to PVG and HKG. I would have thought increased mainland immigration would have changed demand.

I can't see how AC would downsize to a 35K. They already put 400-450 pax in a 77W. Add in another decade of population growth in Toronto (another 1 million residents in the GTA). And downsizing seems harder, at least not without raising frequencies. 779s for AC would be configured for 470 pax. And still lots of room for cargo. A 35K would be at 400 pax at best.
 
TObound
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:12 pm

Will also mention that AC has a huge gap right now from the ~300 seat 333/789/77L category and their 400-450 seat 77W. This seems to be a great opportunity for the 78X. Or even the 35K.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:36 am

TObound wrote:
I can't see how AC would downsize to a 35K. They already put 400-450 pax in a 77W. Add in another decade of population growth in Toronto (another 1 million residents in the GTA). And downsizing seems harder, at least not without raising frequencies. 779s for AC would be configured for 470 pax. And still lots of room for cargo. A 35K would be at 400 pax at best.


The 777-9 is limited to 440 seats. It would also be a downgrade.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:03 am

TObound wrote:
Will also mention that AC has a huge gap right now from the ~300 seat 333/789/77L category and their 400-450 seat 77W. This seems to be a great opportunity for the 78X. Or even the 35K.
VSMUT wrote:
TObound wrote:
I can't see how AC would downsize to a 35K. They already put 400-450 pax in a 77W. Add in another decade of population growth in Toronto (another 1 million residents in the GTA). And downsizing seems harder, at least not without raising frequencies. 779s for AC would be configured for 470 pax. And still lots of room for cargo. A 35K would be at 400 pax at best.


You make an excellent point, I definitely see room for a ~340 seat A359 or 78X, They could easily use 15 frames of that size to upgauge current 789/A333 routes.

The 777-9 is limited to 440 seats. It would also be a downgrade.


Ironically the smaller A350-1000 has a higher exit limit at 480, though hitting that would not occur in an AC configuration, they would likely hit 400 in a high density configuration.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:05 am

TObound wrote:
Will also mention that AC has a huge gap right now from the ~300 seat 333/789/77L category and their 400-450 seat 77W. This seems to be a great opportunity for the 78X. Or even the 35K.


I agree, a 340ish seat A359 or 78X would be quite useful to grow some current 789/A333 routes. Especially European trunk routes that have fairly consistent demand.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:12 am

whywhyzee wrote:
Ironically the smaller A350-1000 has a higher exit limit at 480, though hitting that would not occur in an AC configuration, they would likely hit 400 in a high density configuration.


The Air Canada 777s are pretty economy heavy. How much are those extra economy seats really worth though? I somehow doubt that they outweigh the additional cost of purchasing and operating the more expensive 777-9.

The 777-9s only major strength lies in it's potentially lower CASK. That will only make itself valid if it flies full, and discounting ticket prices to fill it isn't going to help.
 
ac7e7
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:39 am

AC will not be replacing their 777 until the 2030s. Some only recently joined the fleet. The interiors have (or are in the process) of being updated.

AC’s next ‘priority’ will be replacing the Rouge 767s in the early 2020s. They will then look at the Rouge A319/A320 replacement in the mid-late 2020s.

Just because a newer version is available, doesn’t mean it makes sense for AC to order it.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 5:39 am

VSMUT wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
Ironically the smaller A350-1000 has a higher exit limit at 480, though hitting that would not occur in an AC configuration, they would likely hit 400 in a high density configuration.


The Air Canada 777s are pretty economy heavy. How much are those extra economy seats really worth though? I somehow doubt that they outweigh the additional cost of purchasing and operating the more expensive 777-9.

The 777-9s only major strength lies in it's potentially lower CASK. That will only make itself valid if it flies full, and discounting ticket prices to fill it isn't going to help.


To be fair, the normal 400 seater is pretty much bang on the average when it comes to J with 40 seats and PY may be a little small, but it was introduced just as AC rolled out PY fleet wide, so they were understandably cautious. Y is just really dense, they packed in every possible inch. I don't imagine we will see much difference with a future potential A35K, I look to the CX A35K as a good example, with maybe 2 additional rows of Y owing to ACs slightly stingier configuration. That puts them at a ~350 seat configuration which is a fair bit smaller than the current 77W, but can be used to boost yield as you suggest, or coupled with additional frequencies to maintain seat counts. HD 77Ws could be replaced with the same aircraft configured something Ong the lines of 30/32/310 which is a pretty significant drop on seat counts, but the same options are available to them as the non HD replacement plan. Considering WS is a growing long haul competitor, who have the advantage of ASMs/flight with their dense 320 seat 789s, it might not be the worst idea to replace the 25 77Ws with 25 A35Ks for example. That would give them 92% of total available 777 seats covered right there with a much more efficient platform. They could easily add more A35Ks to cover the A333 replacement, A359s for lower demand routes or even 78Xs for shorter high demand routes. WS competing on the premium market now forces AC to compete, and frequency is where they can win, going with a smaller replacement makes sense, especially with YYZ, YUL and YVR all expanding their terminals. I think their main challenge moving forward will be finding crews, to fly the planes and keep them running, the Hub infrastructure is growing, but it's hard to manufacture manpower.
 
KFTG
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:01 am

jumbojettony wrote:
I was just thinking, its coming up on 13 years from when the first 777s were delivered to Air Canada.

Barely 1/3 of the way into their useful life. Shiny jet syndrome?
 
raylee67
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:31 pm

Air Canada puts 450 seats on the 77W. 787 is for sure not large enough to replace those 777s.

There are only two planes capable to replace the 77W with the same capacity and range, A350 and 777-9. I would think A350 has an edge, since it offers the flexibility of both A359 and A351, so Air Canada can replace both 77L and 77W with the same model, almost on a one-on-one basis.

777-9, on the other hand, is actually larger than the 77W, so would be a bit too large to replace the 77L. Although technically AC can go with a combination of 789 and 779 for that.

Although AC does not need to replace the 777 fleet probably for 10 more years, but there are no new 400-seater development in the next 10 years too, so it will still, at the end, need to choose between 789/779 and A350.

Personally, I think A359/351 has an edge. Additionally, if the A351ULR really comes into reality, AC may be interested in getting a few of those to open YYZ-SYD and YYZ-AKL too. The Australia routes from Vancouver have been very successful.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
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keesje
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:09 pm

Adding the 787-10 to the 787 fleet seems a no brainer.
Most of their long haul flights go Atlantic, and from YVR most of their Asia destinations are doable (e.g. HKG: 5500NM).

Image
https://www.airlineroutemaps.com/maps/A ... th_America

If not probably the 787-9 can provide an acceptable alternative.


I tried to come up with a couple of good reasons why AC/Rouge/Air Transat won't order a bunch of XLR's soon.
Didn't succeed, so w'll probably see it soon.

Image
Last edited by keesje on Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:13 pm

Everyone keeps talking about the 359/35K and 779 (or 78X) as the replacement for AC’s 777 fleet. For a fleet that that has some frames just a few years old (some 77Ws), dare I suggest that the replacement for some of this fleet doesn’t exist yet?

You figure, assuming Boeing gets their sh*t together, the 787 is due for a refresh mid-to-late next decade, the 777 replacement would probably be up in the mid 2030s (when the 77W fleet comes due), and Airbus would likely neo the 350 sometime next decade, plus who knows what they might do to replace the A330 in their lineup. Given all that, it seems rather short-sighted to talk about the current lineup in the context of AC’s fleet replacement.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:17 pm

[*]
KFTG wrote:
jumbojettony wrote:
I was just thinking, its coming up on 13 years from when the first 777s were delivered to Air Canada.

Barely 1/3 of the way into their useful life. Shiny jet syndrome?


Not if the leases are about to expire.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:02 pm

Leases can be renewed. AC shows they're entirely comfortable operating jets more than 20 years old, let alone 12.

Give the age of the 777 fleet it's just way too early to worry about it. As noted, what may be available when AC gets around to making a decision may not even be defined/offered yet.
 
TObound
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:03 pm

People seem to be forgetting about the TS merger. They just can't make any long term decisions before they know if the merger is going through and what if any routes/markets/slots they'd have to divest from.

If and when the merger goes through, AC's fleet replacement plan will have to change. There are routes where the combined carrier could fly several 779s per day. YYZ-LHR (if consolidated away from LGW) and YUL-CDG come to mind. And there are so many routes across the pond where a combined AC/TS could go year-round with 321XLRs from either YYZ and/or YUL with widebodies providing swing seasonal capacity.
 
TObound
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:45 pm

For discussion sake, I’m going to toss out my guesses:

1) AC uses 737 MAX compensation to place an order for around two dozen 789s and 78Js to replace their 330 and 788 fleet with deliveries scheduled over the better part of a decade, at mainline.

2) The 788s and 330s cascade down to a combined Transat/Rouge in 300 seat Y/Y+ configs. AC continually adds to this fleet by hoovering up used 788s that come on the market to replace all of Rouge’s 763ERs and Transat’s 330s over the next decade, eventually building up to a fleet of at least 40 788s.

3) Following the merger, AC firms up an order for 40 321XLRs in 200 seat Rouge configurations to replace TS leased 321NEOs, 321-200s and 321LRs and Rouge’s own 321s. They use this to make more TATL destinations year-round with the 300 seat 788s swapping in or augmenting as necessary.

4) AC exercises the A220/CSeries options for delivery during 2023-2025. And places those 30 A223s as replacements for Rouge’s 319s, 320s and Transat’s 738s.

5) Mid to late next decade they announce the 777 replacement. Combination of 78Js and 779s.
 
jumbojettony
Topic Author
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:53 pm

TObound wrote:
For discussion sake, I’m going to toss out my guesses:

1) AC uses 737 MAX compensation to place an order for around two dozen 789s and 78Js to replace their 330 and 788 fleet with deliveries scheduled over the better part of a decade, at mainline.

2) The 788s and 330s cascade down to a combined Transat/Rouge in 300 seat Y/Y+ configs. AC continually adds to this fleet by hoovering up used 788s that come on the market to replace all of Rouge’s 763ERs and Transat’s 330s over the next decade, eventually building up to a fleet of at least 40 788s.

3) Following the merger, AC firms up an order for 40 321XLRs in 200 seat Rouge configurations to replace TS leased 321NEOs, 321-200s and 321LRs and Rouge’s own 321s. They use this to make more TATL destinations year-round with the 300 seat 788s swapping in or augmenting as necessary.

4) AC exercises the A220/CSeries options for delivery during 2023-2025. And places those 30 A223s as replacements for Rouge’s 319s, 320s and Transat’s 738s.

5) Mid to late next decade they announce the 777 replacement. Combination of 78Js and 779s.



Yeah I can see something similar to that becoming a reality. Wonder if AB will try to get them to take a few a339s with the A223 / A321Neo if that happens.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:44 pm

I think until there's a clear path forward (or not) on the MAX not much will happen order-wise. And regardless of whether the MAX flies again or not, even though Boeing has no doubt lost considerable goodwill with AC, some 787 orders of undetermined mix will likely be the only realistic way AC may get some compensation from BA, because I think the whole MAX debacle will leave Boeing cash-poor and teetering on the brink of Chapter 11. A real cut-price deal on 787s at least brings cash in the door even if each one is sold at a loss (which can be written down), instead of it flowing out in cash compensation. So for that reason I don't foresee too many Airbus widebodies in the near future.

Narrowbodies though, in the form of A321NEO/LR/XLR, and A220s, is another matter especially if the MAX gets the kibosh from Boeing, or AC decides the MAX is too tarnished to regain public trust.

Been

Beech
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:02 pm

jumbojettony wrote:
Hey there everyone!

Firstly, happy holidays to all.

I was just thinking, its coming up on 13 years from when the first 777s were delivered to Air Canada. Sooner or later these will have to be replaced along with the a333 (even though they keep adding used frames). Seeing as they have been affected by the recent Max issues what are the chances we see them go with the 777x (with a decent discount due to the issues)?


...as if we had a string of competing manufacturers to pick from....
So, unless they go for the 777X, it's either the 787, or a combo of Airbus products.
Not much to say here, unless we are down to getting excited whether it's the -8 variant or the -9 of a type...

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