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TObound
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:18 pm

VSMUT wrote:
TObound wrote:
I can't see how AC would downsize to a 35K. They already put 400-450 pax in a 77W. Add in another decade of population growth in Toronto (another 1 million residents in the GTA). And downsizing seems harder, at least not without raising frequencies. 779s for AC would be configured for 470 pax. And still lots of room for cargo. A 35K would be at 400 pax at best.


The 777-9 is limited to 440 seats. It would also be a downgrade.


Is that true?

With four Type-A and one Type-III doors on each side, I thought the limit was 475?
 
TObound
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:40 pm

jumbojettony wrote:
TObound wrote:
For discussion sake, I’m going to toss out my guesses:

1) AC uses 737 MAX compensation to place an order for around two dozen 789s and 78Js to replace their 330 and 788 fleet with deliveries scheduled over the better part of a decade, at mainline.

2) The 788s and 330s cascade down to a combined Transat/Rouge in 300 seat Y/Y+ configs. AC continually adds to this fleet by hoovering up used 788s that come on the market to replace all of Rouge’s 763ERs and Transat’s 330s over the next decade, eventually building up to a fleet of at least 40 788s.

3) Following the merger, AC firms up an order for 40 321XLRs in 200 seat Rouge configurations to replace TS leased 321NEOs, 321-200s and 321LRs and Rouge’s own 321s. They use this to make more TATL destinations year-round with the 300 seat 788s swapping in or augmenting as necessary.

4) AC exercises the A220/CSeries options for delivery during 2023-2025. And places those 30 A223s as replacements for Rouge’s 319s, 320s and Transat’s 738s.

5) Mid to late next decade they announce the 777 replacement. Combination of 78Js and 779s.



Yeah I can see something similar to that becoming a reality. Wonder if AB will try to get them to take a few a339s with the A223 / A321Neo if that happens.


I can't see the 339 as likely:

1) Airbus won't be able to provide discounts greater than Boeing's 737 MAX compensation will offset new 787 costs or for as cheap as second hand 787s.

2) Does AC need an aircraft that would have well over 300 seats in a Rouge Y/Y+ config, even if it isn't in TS' ULCC config?

Once the existing 330s cascade down from mainline AC should have a better idea. But I suspect in the long run, 300 seat used 788s are probably the replacement for the Rouge/Transat widebody fleet.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4680
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:00 pm

TObound wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
TObound wrote:
I can't see how AC would downsize to a 35K. They already put 400-450 pax in a 77W. Add in another decade of population growth in Toronto (another 1 million residents in the GTA). And downsizing seems harder, at least not without raising frequencies. 779s for AC would be configured for 470 pax. And still lots of room for cargo. A 35K would be at 400 pax at best.


The 777-9 is limited to 440 seats. It would also be a downgrade.


Is that true?

With four Type-A and one Type-III doors on each side, I thought the limit was 475?


A limit of 440 has been widely reported.
 
krisyyz
Posts: 1303
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:04 pm

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:24 pm

As many have mentioned, AC likes to get every single mile possible out of their aircraft. AC owned 10 out of the 19 77Ws, and 4 out of the 6 as of 2019. I’m no expert, but to me that indicates they are less likely to withdraw or replace the type until they’re nearing the end of their operational life or become grossly inefficient. With their HD config, I don’t see the latter option any time soon. In May of 2018, their CFO said they have no plans to exercise their 787 options.

It’s always fun to guess at what could happen. But personally, I don’t see any major change to ACs WB fleet until the 77Ws become a burden.

AC 2018 report, page 48 https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/a ... 018_ar.pdf

https://airlinerwatch.com/air-canada-no ... eamliners/

KrisYYZ
Last edited by krisyyz on Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SEA
Posts: 297
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:21 pm

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:47 pm

krisyyz wrote:
As many have mentioned, AC likes to get every single mile possible out of their aircraft. AC owned 10 out of the 19 77Ws, and 4 out of the 6 as of 2019. I’m no expert, but to me that indicates they are less likely to withdraw or replace the type until they’re nearing the end of their operational life or become grossly inefficient. With their HD config, I don’t see the latter option any time soon. In May of 2018, their CFO said they have no plans to exercise their 787 options.

It’s always fun to guess at what could happen. But personally, I don’t see any major change to ACs WB fleet until the 77Ws become a burden.

KrisYYZ


Totally agree. With AC being the operator they are and the 77W being the workhorse it is, I doubt AC is anywhere near even thinking about a replacement yet.
 
TObound
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:39 pm

VSMUT wrote:
TObound wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

The 777-9 is limited to 440 seats. It would also be a downgrade.


Is that true?

With four Type-A and one Type-III doors on each side, I thought the limit was 475?


A limit of 440 has been widely reported.


I think people are regurgitating the baseline 777-200 figure, which is exactly 440. The 777-300 has an exit limit of 550. The 440 "widely reported" limit is also just 14 seats above Boeing's standard 426 seat two class layout for the 777-9X.

475 would be the minimum I think. I'd be surprised if Boeing applies for anything less than 550. I'd expect 600+.

Anything lower than 450 and customers like AC and AF might bow out.
 
alan3
Posts: 422
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 6:13 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:50 pm

I'm surprised to see AC puts 400 to 450 pax on their 77W. Compared with around 350 for UA, EVA, Emirates, Aeroflot, etc., and only around 300 for AA and BA.

AC must have the highest 3-cabin density of any 77W operator. I thought AC had comparable seat pitch and a fairly large premium cabin, how are they packing so many more in and why do they need such a higher density than than the others?
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:11 pm

alan3 wrote:
I'm surprised to see AC puts 400 to 450 pax on their 77W. Compared with around 350 for UA, EVA, Emirates, Aeroflot, etc., and only around 300 for AA and BA.

AC must have the highest 3-cabin density of any 77W operator. I thought AC had comparable seat pitch and a fairly large premium cabin, how are they packing so many more in and why do they need such a higher density than than the others?


Dense Y cabins. The 400 seater for example has 40J, which is pretty comperable to many other airlines, like EVA and Emirates as you mentionned. AC has a relatively large J cabin with the Super Diamond seats not being the most space efficient in the world, but they have a relatively small Y+ cabin compared to other airlines. Y+ is fairly new to AC, so it's understandable that this configuration was designed to be lower risk and to help them build a market for the service.

Aeroflot, Emirates and many others all have 400+ on their 77Ws as well. As more carriers move to a dense 10 abreast Y cabin, 350-450 is where most carriers are going to be.
 
TObound
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:38 pm

It's not just AC. AF, is another transatlantic carrier that puts 468 seats in their 77W. This is why I can't imagine the 779 having an exit limit less than 475 selling.

Also why I see AC replacing the 77Ws with 779s by the end of the decade. I imagine they need the lift for certain destinations given population growth for YYZ and YUL. I could see them standardize around 470 seats with 40J and a larger Y+ cabin. Replacing that kind of capacity would mean more airplanes and higher frequencies. For some destinations that would be challenging.
 
DCA350
Posts: 163
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 7:27 pm

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:17 am

TObound wrote:
It's not just AC. AF, is another transatlantic carrier that puts 468 seats in their 77W. This is why I can't imagine the 779 having an exit limit less than 475 selling.

Also why I see AC replacing the 77Ws with 779s by the end of the decade. I imagine they need the lift for certain destinations given population growth for YYZ and YUL. I could see them standardize around 470 seats with 40J and a larger Y+ cabin. Replacing that kind of capacity would mean more airplanes and higher frequencies. For some destinations that would be challenging.


Yet that's what most airlines are doing, increasing frequency with smaller aircraft. The 779 could very well be the choice but AC could also go A35K and increase yields.
 
yyzmdw
Posts: 10
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:40 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:28 pm

Idea: when ultrafan becomes a reality, Airbus will launch an A350-2000 that will be able to take a higher seat density like the 77W. Maybe that would suit AC's needs?
 
TObound
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Air Canada's 777 Replacement?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:52 am

DCA350 wrote:
TObound wrote:
It's not just AC. AF, is another transatlantic carrier that puts 468 seats in their 77W. This is why I can't imagine the 779 having an exit limit less than 475 selling.

Also why I see AC replacing the 77Ws with 779s by the end of the decade. I imagine they need the lift for certain destinations given population growth for YYZ and YUL. I could see them standardize around 470 seats with 40J and a larger Y+ cabin. Replacing that kind of capacity would mean more airplanes and higher frequencies. For some destinations that would be challenging.


Yet that's what most airlines are doing, increasing frequency with smaller aircraft. The 779 could very well be the choice but AC could also go A35K and increase yields.


Sure. But AC has the 789 and 330s for higher frequencies. The 77W is only used where they need the lift or the CASM that a large hauler brings. I can’t imagine the 35K being sufficient for that role.

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