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flyfresno
Posts: 1014
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:14 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Looks like some retrenchment at SMF for AS this summer. In addition to the previously announced Kona, Maui becomes only a tropical memory (SW seems to have run them off), and San Diego frequency cut to 3x daily from 4x. Please note this means FAT will have greater frequency to San Diego on Alaska than Sacramento in 2020...


1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.
 
durangomac
Posts: 443
Joined: Fri Dec 08, 2006 5:18 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:24 pm

People forget that AS management was very vocal that the most valuable assets of the VX merger were the people and gates in LAX, SFO and JFK. Those airports are very limited on available gates and buying an airline that had a sizable number of gates at those airports allowed them to grow at those airports faster than they could have organically. The aircraft and routes are not as valuable, in fact most of the routes were barely profitable at the time of the merger.

I think it's smart for AS to trim non-performing markets and reinforce/expand in other markets. AS said that 2019 was "balancing" year and that after one of the fastest airliner integrations in history and a very large expansion phase in 2018, I think it's just a reset and make sure that things are working correctly.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5198
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:45 pm

I like the fact that AS is bolstering some of the smaller markets like SEA-STS, SAN-STS, mainline to several "smaller" destinations. SEA-SBA goes 2X daily during the summer as well (previously announced).
 
JayWings
Posts: 91
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:26 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:49 pm

durangomac wrote:
People forget that AS management was very vocal that the most valuable assets of the VX merger were the people and gates in LAX, SFO and JFK. Those airports are very limited on available gates and buying an airline that had a sizable number of gates at those airports allowed them to grow at those airports faster than they could have organically. The aircraft and routes are not as valuable, in fact most of the routes were barely profitable at the time of the merger.

I think it's smart for AS to trim non-performing markets and reinforce/expand in other markets. AS said that 2019 was "balancing" year and that after one of the fastest airliner integrations in history and a very large expansion phase in 2018, I think it's just a reset and make sure that things are working correctly.


I’m inclined to believe this is the direction AS will go in 2020. Let the dust settle and cut the routes that don’t make sense at the moment. They have already started building connections from popular FF markets to the new CA hubs which is a great move. Hopefully by allowing for stabilization within the network, AS won’t be dramatically impacted by the MAX debacle and can refocus post integration. Once the MAX’s start coming and AS indicates what the future fleet plan looks like, I imagine we’ll start to see some creative adds.
 
sxf24
Posts: 993
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
B6 offers very few logical or meaningful connections to AS customers. Conversely, AS brings ANC and Hawai’i to the table, but significant origins on the east coast are already served by AS.

Think about it this way.

A AS ff wants to go from SEA or PDX to BUF/SYR/RIC/Florida/Caribbeans now has to travel on a competitor or find it far more convenient to travel on a competitor via one of the midcon hubs. And if there are enough cases like that, that ff might just move to DL. But if you can do SEA-BOS/JFK and then via B6 codeshare to one of these east coast or Latam destinations, then you don't lose that business to DL.

In the same case, B6 wants to win over ff loyalty of someone that frequently travels from BOS to PDX, BOI, SMF, ANC, RDM will now find it hard to attract someone like that. But if that person can do BOS-SEA then via AS codeshare to one of these west coast cities, then that person might be persuaded to become B6 ff.

It's really hard to state how much business both AS and B6 lose out to the big 4 out of their major hubs, because they don't have other major stations to offer convenient 1-stop options to these smaller airports.

I think for it to work, it would need to be a pretty comprehensive code shares. Just interlining would not do it, because you don't get the ff benefits


I have thought about. I’ve even talked to AS and B6 management about it.

The problem is there’s not sufficient incentive.

The potential markets going East are small, most very small. Going west, ANC is more appealing, but highly seasonal. In all cases, a codeshare would require one party giving up a seat on a competitive transcon flight to the other party in an effort to get a connection on a flight that could be filed with your own traffic. You also need to solve a mismatch in product and FFP.

The competitive environment has changed since broad domestic codeshare agreements were more common. Airlines are investing in their product and, in the case of AS and B6, focused on a subset of the market. The risk of a domestic codeshare in markets where midcon hubs are significantly more competitive is too high to offset potential gain.

It could happen in the future, but despite the conventional wisdom on a.net, neither AS nor B6 need broad domestic coverage to be successful.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 374
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
B6 offers very few logical or meaningful connections to AS customers. Conversely, AS brings ANC and Hawai’i to the table, but significant origins on the east coast are already served by AS.



I think for it to work, it would need to be a pretty comprehensive code shares. Just interlining would not do it, because you don't get the ff benefits


No reason that FF benefits can't be offered without a codeshare, as illustrated by several of AS's now defunct partnerships.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:51 pm

flyfresno wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Looks like some retrenchment at SMF for AS this summer. In addition to the previously announced Kona, Maui becomes only a tropical memory (SW seems to have run them off), and San Diego frequency cut to 3x daily from 4x. Please note this means FAT will have greater frequency to San Diego on Alaska than Sacramento in 2020...


1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.


Oh... I don't know. You are never going to capture appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?
Last edited by williaminsd on Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1908
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:55 pm

I fly AA a lot out of JFK, mainly to the West Coast (SFO, LAX), and to Europe (LHR, CDG, BCN). The flights I've been on the past six months have all been full (except for 1 CDG-JFK mid-week in early December). The terminal also felt crowded in the late PM and early evening, though at other times of the day I have been there, it has been fairly quiet which is to be expected since the bulk of the long hauls (MXP, BCN, MAD, CDG, LHR, EZE, GRU) all depart between 5:30pm and 10:45pm. My guess is that the regional service AA operates out of JFK (PIT, etc...) will eventually be permanent cuts. AA doesn't really need the feed there. The JFK operation, per their late Spring 2019 investor call has stabilized and according to AA, is profitable. Is it DL? Absolutely not. But it does not have to be.
 
sxf24
Posts: 993
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:55 pm

williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Looks like some retrenchment at SMF for AS this summer. In addition to the previously announced Kona, Maui becomes only a tropical memory (SW seems to have run them off), and San Diego frequency cut to 3x daily from 4x. Please note this means FAT will have greater frequency to San Diego on Alaska than Sacramento in 2020...


1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.


Oh... I don't know. You are never going to grab appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?


Why do F9, NK and G4 fly single or sub daily flights in markets where others offer more frequency?
 
williaminsd
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:00 pm

sxf24 wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.


Oh... I don't know. You are never going to grab appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?


Why do F9, NK and G4 fly single or sub daily flights in markets where others offer more frequency?


Well you'd have to ask them of course, but I'd guess it has something to do with business vs leisure markets...
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1757
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:04 pm

Where are the AS fanboys that were adamant that AS was going to eat WN’s lunch on HI-mainland flying?

*AS BWI-SAN AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9]
**AS LAX-SLC MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]
AS OAK-OGG AUG 0.8>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0]
**AS OGG-SMF MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]
**AS SAN-SLC MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]
AS SAN-SMF JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4] AUG 4>3[4] SEP 4>3[4]
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 374
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:07 pm

williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Looks like some retrenchment at SMF for AS this summer. In addition to the previously announced Kona, Maui becomes only a tropical memory (SW seems to have run them off), and San Diego frequency cut to 3x daily from 4x. Please note this means FAT will have greater frequency to San Diego on Alaska than Sacramento in 2020...


1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.


Oh... I don't know. You are never going to capture appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?

You bother because either the 3 flights a day are profitable or your frequent fliers require the flight. The idea that a route is not worth flying because another airline makes more total profit on the route doesn't make any sense. Airlines as well established as AS don't make decisions based on ego.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 374
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:16 pm

williaminsd wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

Oh... I don't know. You are never going to grab appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?


Why do F9, NK and G4 fly single or sub daily flights in markets where others offer more frequency?


Well you'd have to ask them of course, but I'd guess it has something to do with business vs leisure markets...


I wouldn't call markets like TTN-ORD, and ABQ-DEN leisure markets.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:21 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.


Oh... I don't know. You are never going to capture appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?

You bother because either the 3 flights a day are profitable or your frequent fliers require the flight. The idea that a route is not worth flying because another airline makes more total profit on the route doesn't make any sense. Airlines as well established as AS don't make decisions based on ego.


They're going in the wrong direction, especially as they close in on three years of operations in the segment.

As an Alaska Gold and someone who typically flies that route 2-3 times a month, I can tell you having to wait for a late-night departure while watching 3-4 Southwest non-stops leave for San Diego demands some reconsideration.

Not sure where any "ego" is coming from, but have it your way...
 
williaminsd
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:25 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Why do F9, NK and G4 fly single or sub daily flights in markets where others offer more frequency?


Well you'd have to ask them of course, but I'd guess it has something to do with business vs leisure markets...


I wouldn't call markets like TTN-ORD, and ABQ-DEN leisure markets.


I didn't know we were talking about those markets...
 
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atcsundevil
Moderator
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:18 am

Please stay on topic and respect other users. There's absolutely no need for personal attacks.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
alfa164
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:39 am

Aliqiout wrote:
Airlines as well established as AS don't make decisions based on ego.


Did you miss the part about their attempted incursion into SLC?

;)
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
DLASFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:06 am

So of the eight SLC routes added by AS in 2013-14, only three will remain.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 374
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:57 am

williaminsd wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

Oh... I don't know. You are never going to capture appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?

You bother because either the 3 flights a day are profitable or your frequent fliers require the flight. The idea that a route is not worth flying because another airline makes more total profit on the route doesn't make any sense. Airlines as well established as AS don't make decisions based on ego.


They're going in the wrong direction, especially as they close in on three years of operations in the segment.

As an Alaska Gold and someone who typically flies that route 2-3 times a month, I can tell you having to wait for a late-night departure while watching 3-4 Southwest non-stops leave for San Diego demands some reconsideration.

Not sure where any "ego" is coming from, but have it your way...

It certainly does demand some reconsideration. I don't know why anyone would do that, and most passengers don't. FF status isn't worth waiting hours for a very short flight.

But for some passengers that flight you are waiting for is at the prefect time, or the best combination of schedule and price, if there are enough of those passengers at a high enough price the flight works, even if they non competitive on frequency. Much of AS's expansion out of AK and the PNW was based on flying once daily flights against higher frequency incumbent airlines. It seems to have worked out well.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:38 am

WN LAS-SMF JUN 1.9>10[7] JUL 0>10[7] AUG 0>3[8]

This route has always had a lot of frequency, but adding 3 more is quite interesting. Maybe trying to scare off new entrants F9 and NK
 
MDW22L31C
Posts: 246
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 7:03 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:23 am

F9 growing at ONT. ONT-MIA. ONT-LAS. ONT-EWR
 
MDW22L31C
Posts: 246
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 7:03 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:29 am

F9 growing at ONT. ONT-MIA ONT-LAS ONT-EWR ONT-SAL
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:55 am

AA at JFK is puzzling. I thought they wanted to focus on O&D not vacate the airport. At this rate they are canceling some of the oldest most stable regional routes and flights to hubs. I am guessing the MAX being not being allowed to fly is creating some scheduling problems for AA . I understand some routes have to get cut because of issues but these routes seem so important for their network and for JFK feed of existing important international flights.

Still seems insane to cut such feeder routes and business routes. Not really sure i get AA's strategy at the moment.
 
n2dru
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:57 am

American is growing at AGS right under DL's nose. I wonder if Delta really cares since ATL is so close. I know its a former US station that mainly had CLT flights and I think some LGA during the Masters.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5198
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:32 am

usflyguy wrote:
Where are the AS fanboys that were adamant that AS was going to eat WN’s lunch on HI-mainland flying?

*AS BWI-SAN AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9]
**AS LAX-SLC MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]
AS OAK-OGG AUG 0.8>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0]
**AS OGG-SMF MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]
**AS SAN-SLC MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]
AS SAN-SMF JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4] AUG 4>3[4] SEP 4>3[4]


More for us up in SEA/PDX!
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:51 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AA at JFK is puzzling. I thought they wanted to focus on O&D not vacate the airport. At this rate they are canceling some of the oldest most stable regional routes and flights to hubs. I am guessing the MAX being not being allowed to fly is creating some scheduling problems for AA . I understand some routes have to get cut because of issues but these routes seem so important for their network and for JFK feed of existing important international flights.

Still seems insane to cut such feeder routes and business routes. Not really sure i get AA's strategy at the moment.

I think CLE and LAS were the only routes cut completely; everything else seems to maintain at least 1x daily (I am assuming timed to feed the international flights, though I have not taken the time to verify this). As a strategy, that does make sense to me - AA continues serving the NYC O&D market with international flights out of JFK (fed by a reduced network of regional flights) while serving in-perimeter domestic markets out of LGA (where AA still has a robust schedule). The only cut that doesn't really fit with the above is LAS, but that route is so competitive these days, AA may have decided it isn't worth it.

AA currently at JFK actually reminds me quite a bit of DL's operations there in the early 2000s before it recommitted to the airport and built up the hub. At that point DL had its international routes and select outside perimeter routes (LAX, SFO and I believe briefly SAN), with regional flights primarily timed to feed the international bank. However DL also maintained quite an extensive DL Express operation at the airport (and later song); other than that additional (and pretty significant) domestic flying, their JFK strategy at the time seemed pretty similar to AA's now.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:58 pm

MDW22L31C wrote:
F9 growing at ONT. ONT-MIA ONT-LAS ONT-EWR ONT-SAL


I wouldn’t get too excited about F9. They usually arrive with a bang (lots of flights/routes) and leave with a fart sound (MAYBE one flight a day, maybe less) in 6 months.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:10 pm

n2dru wrote:
American is growing at AGS right under DL's nose. I wonder if Delta really cares since ATL is so close. I know its a former US station that mainly had CLT flights and I think some LGA during the Masters.


I believe all of AA's additions at AGS are one-off flights for The Masters.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5385
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:10 pm

A couple of comments re: AS changes at SAN:

> BWI-SAN has apparently been confirmed as a truly seasonal route. This year, the route went dormant in the fall, Sept 28, 2019, returning next year, May 21; it appears the same thing is happening next year again with the route suspended Aug 17, 2020. I'm betting it will return for summer 2021. I don't understand it (becoming a seasonal route) but that seems to be AS's plan...
> SAN-SLC, IMO, is not just a DL-thing; remember that WN entered the route a couple years ago -- June 2017 -- and is now double-daily on the route. I'm chalking this drop by AS up to another route lost to WN... AS has never seemed to be able to find the right schedule or capacity for their service, constantly changing times and frequencies, so I've been expecting them to just give up on the whole SLC-thing and it looks like that is happening. (I'm kind of surprised SFO-SLC is still on the route map....)
> SAN-SFO, nice to see AS digging in to this market even though this is now another all-EMJ route. As with the other intra-CA routes that AS competes with WN on, at least all 8 AS flights offer F seating. AS now has more times to choose from for their FF on both ends of this important market.
> SAN-SMF. Strange to see AS backing off here but if they want to remain in the market, they will definitely need to add more flight options to try to stay somewhat competitive with WN's 14-15 weekday flights! Again, AS offers the only F seating in the market but come on AS -- 3 r/t? AS seems inclined to want to compete on SJC-SAN with 6 daily r/t so what's with SMF?

bb
 
williaminsd
Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:14 pm

SANFan wrote:
A couple of comments re: AS changes at SAN:
> SAN-SMF. Strange to see AS backing off here but if they want to remain in the market, they will definitely need to add more flight options to try to stay somewhat competitive with WN's 14-15 weekday flights! Again, AS offers the only F seating in the market but come on AS -- 3 r/t? AS seems inclined to want to compete on SJC-SAN with 6 daily r/t so what's with SMF?

bb


Ha! Long, boring story bb, but let's just say I completely agree with you. Cutting back to 3x/day is a waste of Alaska's competitive advantages in this market...
Last edited by williaminsd on Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:19 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
I fly AA a lot out of JFK, mainly to the West Coast (SFO, LAX), and to Europe (LHR, CDG, BCN). The flights I've been on the past six months have all been full (except for 1 CDG-JFK mid-week in early December). The terminal also felt crowded in the late PM and early evening, though at other times of the day I have been there, it has been fairly quiet which is to be expected since the bulk of the long hauls (MXP, BCN, MAD, CDG, LHR, EZE, GRU) all depart between 5:30pm and 10:45pm. My guess is that the regional service AA operates out of JFK (PIT, etc...) will eventually be permanent cuts. AA doesn't really need the feed there. The JFK operation, per their late Spring 2019 investor call has stabilized and according to AA, is profitable. Is it DL? Absolutely not. But it does not have to be.


I just wonder though. Alot of what was cut looks like prime feeders for international flights. Even the hub cuts DFW, ORD those gave a link for missed connects and things to get on some of the probably lower filled flights. Next AA will wonder why they are hurting on those routes. Not sure O&D alone can work in such a competitive market if you don't offer some core service too. How loyal are AA flyers on LHR, EZE,GRU if all of their other business trips require a connection for loyalty. At a certain point AA needs to offer core services to keep O&D happy. I just hope they are not going too far. Yes NYC is a huge city but on less crowded dates having some feed must be important in such a competitive market. I just worry AA is not a slippery slope that what works and makes money isn't t risk because of cuts to these feeder routes.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:33 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I fly AA a lot out of JFK, mainly to the West Coast (SFO, LAX), and to Europe (LHR, CDG, BCN). The flights I've been on the past six months have all been full (except for 1 CDG-JFK mid-week in early December). The terminal also felt crowded in the late PM and early evening, though at other times of the day I have been there, it has been fairly quiet which is to be expected since the bulk of the long hauls (MXP, BCN, MAD, CDG, LHR, EZE, GRU) all depart between 5:30pm and 10:45pm. My guess is that the regional service AA operates out of JFK (PIT, etc...) will eventually be permanent cuts. AA doesn't really need the feed there. The JFK operation, per their late Spring 2019 investor call has stabilized and according to AA, is profitable. Is it DL? Absolutely not. But it does not have to be.


I just wonder though. Alot of what was cut looks like prime feeders for international flights. Even the hub cuts DFW, ORD those gave a link for missed connects and things to get on some of the probably lower filled flights. Next AA will wonder why they are hurting on those routes. Not sure O&D alone can work in such a competitive market if you don't offer some core service too. How loyal are AA flyers on LHR, EZE,GRU if all of their other business trips require a connection for loyalty. At a certain point AA needs to offer core services to keep O&D happy. I just hope they are not going too far. Yes NYC is a huge city but on less crowded dates having some feed must be important in such a competitive market. I just worry AA is not a slippery slope that what works and makes money isn't t risk because of cuts to these feeder routes.


As I said before, their yields are way down on JFK routes that I track. DL cleaned their clocks here. Aa would have to outspend dl at NYC and get more slots to turn this around. Neither are likely to happen. 70 to 80 flights a day is the new normal for aa at JFK. They should sell the slots they are not using.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:47 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
AA's load factors have been high and continue to be high through winter. I can't help but think they are trying REALLY HARD to drive up RASM by limiting capacity.



There is no trying, capacity is severely limited by MAX groundings and new aircraft delivery issues at both Boeing and Airbus.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:29 pm

SANFan wrote:
A couple of comments re: AS changes at SAN:

> BWI-SAN has apparently been confirmed as a truly seasonal route. This year, the route went dormant in the fall, Sept 28, 2019, returning next year, May 21; it appears the same thing is happening next year again with the route suspended Aug 17, 2020. I'm betting it will return for summer 2021. I don't understand it (becoming a seasonal route) but that seems to be AS's plan...
> SAN-SLC, IMO, is not just a DL-thing; remember that WN entered the route a couple years ago -- June 2017 -- and is now double-daily on the route. I'm chalking this drop by AS up to another route lost to WN... AS has never seemed to be able to find the right schedule or capacity for their service, constantly changing times and frequencies, so I've been expecting them to just give up on the whole SLC-thing and it looks like that is happening. (I'm kind of surprised SFO-SLC is still on the route map....)
> SAN-SFO, nice to see AS digging in to this market even though this is now another all-EMJ route. As with the other intra-CA routes that AS competes with WN on, at least all 8 AS flights offer F seating. AS now has more times to choose from for their FF on both ends of this important market.
> SAN-SMF. Strange to see AS backing off here but if they want to remain in the market, they will definitely need to add more flight options to try to stay somewhat competitive with WN's 14-15 weekday flights! Again, AS offers the only F seating in the market but come on AS -- 3 r/t? AS seems inclined to want to compete on SJC-SAN with 6 daily r/t so what's with SMF?

bb


AS is obviously retrenching and picking their battles. They are backing off in SMF and trying to hold the line in SFO and SJC, both being “focus cities”, as is SAN.
 
n2dru
Posts: 191
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:58 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
n2dru wrote:
American is growing at AGS right under DL's nose. I wonder if Delta really cares since ATL is so close. I know its a former US station that mainly had CLT flights and I think some LGA during the Masters.


I believe all of AA's additions at AGS are one-off flights for The Masters.


Oh ok...that makes sense.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
As I said before, their yields are way down on JFK routes that I track. DL cleaned their clocks here. Aa would have to outspend dl at NYC and get more slots to turn this around. Neither are likely to happen. 70 to 80 flights a day is the new normal for aa at JFK. They should sell the slots they are not using.


The problem is that anyone who might be interested in buying slots from AA (DL/B6/UA/NK?/F9?) would very likely add service in markets still served by AA from JFK or LGA. I'm not even sure they could get approval to sell slots to either DL or B6. A bigger issue is that reductions in service from JFK will harm the hub at LGA, which is already at a disadvantage to DL's LGA hub.

usflyguy wrote:
Where are the AS fanboys that were adamant that AS was going to eat WN’s lunch on HI-mainland flying?


AS was always "borrowing" those passengers up until WN would enter the Hawaii-mainland market. At airports like OAK, SMF, or SAN, where WN has been the largest carrier for at least two or three decades, it was pretty obvious they were going to capture most of those Hawaii passengers back once they actually offered service.

sxf24 wrote:
Why do F9, NK and G4 fly single or sub daily flights in markets where others offer more frequency?


Because they're competing for a different market segment -- passengers who are willing to accept a crummy schedule and product for fares which are lower or perceived to be lower.

DLASFlyer wrote:
So of the eight SLC routes added by AS in 2013-14, only three will remain.


Their SLC buildup was always a stupid plan. They could never, absent spending ten figures in capital, get enough gates at SLC to meaningfully impact DL's yields. "Sending a message" is dumb; it's not as if DL management wouldn't know that AS management would be unhappy about DL putting a hub in SEA. Sooo... AS burned cash at SLC with virtually nothing to show for it.

HVNandrew wrote:
AA currently at JFK actually reminds me quite a bit of DL's operations there in the early 2000s before it recommitted to the airport and built up the hub.


That doesn't bode well for AA. JFK was a money-loser for DL in that time period.
 
Legend757
Posts: 91
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:45 pm

A couple of comments re: AS changes at SAN:

> BWI-SAN has apparently been confirmed as a truly seasonal route. This year, the route went dormant in the fall, Sept 28, 2019, returning next year, May 21; it appears the same thing is happening next year again with the route suspended Aug 17, 2020. I'm betting it will return for summer 2021. I don't understand it (becoming a seasonal route) but that seems to be AS's plan...
> SAN-SLC, IMO, is not just a DL-thing; remember that WN entered the route a couple years ago -- June 2017 -- and is now double-daily on the route. I'm chalking this drop by AS up to another route lost to WN... AS has never seemed to be able to find the right schedule or capacity for their service, constantly changing times and frequencies, so I've been expecting them to just give up on the whole SLC-thing and it looks like that is happening. (I'm kind of surprised SFO-SLC is still on the route map....)
> SAN-SFO, nice to see AS digging in to this market even though this is now another all-EMJ route. As with the other intra-CA routes that AS competes with WN on, at least all 8 AS flights offer F seating. AS now has more times to choose from for their FF on both ends of this important market.
> SAN-SMF. Strange to see AS backing off here but if they want to remain in the market, they will definitely need to add more flight options to try to stay somewhat competitive with WN's 14-15 weekday flights! Again, AS offers the only F seating in the market but come on AS -- 3 r/t? AS seems inclined to want to compete on SJC-SAN with 6 daily r/t so what's with SMF?

bb


I agree that WN's competitve response in SLC has had some impact on AS's retreat. In fact, I dare say it had more impact than any response DL ever gave. Notice how the markets that remain (SEA, PDX and SFO) have no direct competition from WN, while the others that have been dropped did (SJC, LAS, SAN, LAX), with the exception of BOI. I also think WN went on the offense by adding SLC-BUR/SMF recently to keep AS from ever considering those markets in addition to building up California in general.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
good morning, thanks for this great update enilria. So much changes here!

enilria wrote:
AA BOS-DCA APR 14>10[14]
JFK cuts have now been extended over a year. How long till somebody requires them to use their slots?
AA BOS-JFK APR 5>3[4]
AA BOS-LAX APR 5>4[6]
AA BOS-LGA APR 12>10[11]
AA BOS-ORD APR 9>7[7]
AA DCA-LGA APR 11>10[11]

not just JFK cuts. These important BOS business market cuts are quite striking too. And same with the continued cuts on DCA shuttles. What's going here.
AA BWI-JFK APR 4>1.0[1.0]
AA CLE-JFK APR 1.6>0[1.1]
AA CMH-JFK APR 1.8>1.0[1.0]
AA DCA-JFK APR 4>2[4]
AA DFW-JFK MAR 1.6>1.0[3] APR 4>2[3]
AA JFK-LAS MAR 0.2>0[2] APR 2>0.9[2]
AA JFK-ORD APR 3>0.9[1.9]
AA JFK-ORF APR 1.8>0.2[1.0]
AA JFK-PHL APR 4>0[1.0] MAY 5>4[0.1]
AA JFK-PIT APR 3>1.0[0.0]
AA JFK-RIC APR 3>1.2[0]
AA JFK-SAN MAR 0.5>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0.5[2.0]
AA JFK-YUL APR 1.8>1.0[2]
AA JFK-YYZ APR 1.6>0[2]

but yes, the JFK cuts are the worst.

AS BOS-LAX JUN 1.4>1.0[1.8] JUL 2>1.0[2] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.8]

1x in the peak summer. How much longer is this route sticking around?
AS BOS-SEA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3]

These 2 are perfect example of cutting cali to support SEA. A route that is well below system margins year round gets more capacity.
AS BWI-LAX SEP 0.7>1.0[1.0]
This looks like it might be gone forever after mid-August
*AS BWI-SAN AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9]

not really a surprise on a hub to hub route for WN. I'm surprised BWI-LAX sticks around though

**AS FLL-LAX MAY 1.0>0.6[1.2] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

Another example of mint killing AS. And people thought I was full of it 2 years back when I called this. So, B6 has now made AS retreat to running FLL-LAX/SFO to only running during holiday periods and BOS-LAX to 1x daily. Back in 2016, VX was running this 3x in peak season and B6 was a 2x all year. Now, B6 is at 4x daily all year and AS is gone.

AS LAS-LAX MAY 3>2[4] JUN 4>2[4] JUL 4>2[4] AUG 4>2[4] SEP 4>2[4]
AS LAS-SFO MAY 6>5[6] JUN 7>4[6] JUL 7>4[7] AUG 6>4[7] SEP 6>4[5]

Not a great sign for FF and LAX "hub" if the largest leisure destination is down to 2x daily and SFO is down to 4x daily.

AS MSY-SEA MAY 1.6>2[2] JUN 1.0>1.6[1.2]
SFO loses more of its East-West flights. Moves back toward North-South.
**AS MSY-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

yep, all around cutting cali to support SEA. Pretty obvious strategy here. But if AS management feels like this will allow them to beat DL in SEA. Why not do this? These can all get added back if they don't have to worry about DL down the road.

AS OAK-OGG AUG 0.8>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0]
**AS OGG-SMF MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

what are the odds they stick around in the OAK/SMF-HI market? not good.

*AS SAN-SFO JUN 5>8[5] JUL 5>8[5] AUG 5>8[6] SEP 5>8[4]
**AS SAN-SLC MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

interesting that they added frequency in both SAN/LAX-SFO and cut out SAN/LAX-SLC. Looks like they've given up on the idea of using SLC to retaliate against DL. I'm amazed it has lasted as long as it did.

AS SEA-SFO JUN 13>14[12] JUL 13>14[13] AUG 12>14[15]
AS SEA-SJC JUN 8>9[8] JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8]

so two theme here.
1) Cut back any-none west coast underperforming route out of Cali/PDX.
2) keep building up SEA and their intra-westcoast markets.

Been a pretty interesting couple of month out of AS route planning. Can't blame them for these strategies.

*B6 BOS-LGA MAY 5>9[5] JUN 5>9[5] JUL 5>9[4] AUG 5>9[5] SEP 1.3>2[5]
FLL cutback to add BOS freq. Where did the other 2 rt slots come from?
*B6 FLL-LGA MAY 4>2[5] JUN 3>2[4] JUL 3>2[4] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 0.8>0.5[5]
B6 LGA-MCO MAY 3>2[4] JUN 3>2[4] JUL 3>2[4] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 0.8>0.5[4]
B6 LGA-PBI MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]

both MCO/PBI are losing a flight also. tbh, I think this is a bad way to go. Either cut MCO or PBI. No reason to leave FLL to 2x daily.

DL BOS-MCO MAY 4>3[3] JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3] AUG 4>3[3] SEP 4>3[3]

remember that update where DL announced adding flights in the BOS-Florida market and PUJ? All have now been rolled back to previous levels aside from BOS-MIA. Not so easy competing with LCC/ULCCs in these Florida markets when you don't dominate the other end.


Apart from BOS-JFK, I would imagine the others are just reductions around Easter given they’re only for April, as like you said, they’re all business markets. On Easter Day BOS-DCA is only 8x but most of the month the reduction is to 13x on weekdays. Still a far cry from every hour all day though.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3622
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:47 am

Dominion301 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
good morning, thanks for this great update enilria. So much changes here!

enilria wrote:
AA BOS-DCA APR 14>10[14]
JFK cuts have now been extended over a year. How long till somebody requires them to use their slots?
AA BOS-JFK APR 5>3[4]
AA BOS-LAX APR 5>4[6]
AA BOS-LGA APR 12>10[11]
AA BOS-ORD APR 9>7[7]
AA DCA-LGA APR 11>10[11]

not just JFK cuts. These important BOS business market cuts are quite striking too. And same with the continued cuts on DCA shuttles. What's going here.
AA BWI-JFK APR 4>1.0[1.0]
AA CLE-JFK APR 1.6>0[1.1]
AA CMH-JFK APR 1.8>1.0[1.0]
AA DCA-JFK APR 4>2[4]
AA DFW-JFK MAR 1.6>1.0[3] APR 4>2[3]
AA JFK-LAS MAR 0.2>0[2] APR 2>0.9[2]
AA JFK-ORD APR 3>0.9[1.9]
AA JFK-ORF APR 1.8>0.2[1.0]
AA JFK-PHL APR 4>0[1.0] MAY 5>4[0.1]
AA JFK-PIT APR 3>1.0[0.0]
AA JFK-RIC APR 3>1.2[0]
AA JFK-SAN MAR 0.5>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0.5[2.0]
AA JFK-YUL APR 1.8>1.0[2]
AA JFK-YYZ APR 1.6>0[2]

but yes, the JFK cuts are the worst.

AS BOS-LAX JUN 1.4>1.0[1.8] JUL 2>1.0[2] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.8]

1x in the peak summer. How much longer is this route sticking around?
AS BOS-SEA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3]

These 2 are perfect example of cutting cali to support SEA. A route that is well below system margins year round gets more capacity.
AS BWI-LAX SEP 0.7>1.0[1.0]
This looks like it might be gone forever after mid-August
*AS BWI-SAN AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9]

not really a surprise on a hub to hub route for WN. I'm surprised BWI-LAX sticks around though

**AS FLL-LAX MAY 1.0>0.6[1.2] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

Another example of mint killing AS. And people thought I was full of it 2 years back when I called this. So, B6 has now made AS retreat to running FLL-LAX/SFO to only running during holiday periods and BOS-LAX to 1x daily. Back in 2016, VX was running this 3x in peak season and B6 was a 2x all year. Now, B6 is at 4x daily all year and AS is gone.

AS LAS-LAX MAY 3>2[4] JUN 4>2[4] JUL 4>2[4] AUG 4>2[4] SEP 4>2[4]
AS LAS-SFO MAY 6>5[6] JUN 7>4[6] JUL 7>4[7] AUG 6>4[7] SEP 6>4[5]

Not a great sign for FF and LAX "hub" if the largest leisure destination is down to 2x daily and SFO is down to 4x daily.

AS MSY-SEA MAY 1.6>2[2] JUN 1.0>1.6[1.2]
SFO loses more of its East-West flights. Moves back toward North-South.
**AS MSY-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

yep, all around cutting cali to support SEA. Pretty obvious strategy here. But if AS management feels like this will allow them to beat DL in SEA. Why not do this? These can all get added back if they don't have to worry about DL down the road.

AS OAK-OGG AUG 0.8>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0]
**AS OGG-SMF MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

what are the odds they stick around in the OAK/SMF-HI market? not good.

*AS SAN-SFO JUN 5>8[5] JUL 5>8[5] AUG 5>8[6] SEP 5>8[4]
**AS SAN-SLC MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

interesting that they added frequency in both SAN/LAX-SFO and cut out SAN/LAX-SLC. Looks like they've given up on the idea of using SLC to retaliate against DL. I'm amazed it has lasted as long as it did.

AS SEA-SFO JUN 13>14[12] JUL 13>14[13] AUG 12>14[15]
AS SEA-SJC JUN 8>9[8] JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8]

so two theme here.
1) Cut back any-none west coast underperforming route out of Cali/PDX.
2) keep building up SEA and their intra-westcoast markets.

Been a pretty interesting couple of month out of AS route planning. Can't blame them for these strategies.

*B6 BOS-LGA MAY 5>9[5] JUN 5>9[5] JUL 5>9[4] AUG 5>9[5] SEP 1.3>2[5]
FLL cutback to add BOS freq. Where did the other 2 rt slots come from?
*B6 FLL-LGA MAY 4>2[5] JUN 3>2[4] JUL 3>2[4] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 0.8>0.5[5]
B6 LGA-MCO MAY 3>2[4] JUN 3>2[4] JUL 3>2[4] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 0.8>0.5[4]
B6 LGA-PBI MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]

both MCO/PBI are losing a flight also. tbh, I think this is a bad way to go. Either cut MCO or PBI. No reason to leave FLL to 2x daily.

DL BOS-MCO MAY 4>3[3] JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3] AUG 4>3[3] SEP 4>3[3]

remember that update where DL announced adding flights in the BOS-Florida market and PUJ? All have now been rolled back to previous levels aside from BOS-MIA. Not so easy competing with LCC/ULCCs in these Florida markets when you don't dominate the other end.


Apart from BOS-JFK, I would imagine the others are just reductions around Easter given they’re only for April, as like you said, they’re all business markets. On Easter Day BOS-DCA is only 8x but most of the month the reduction is to 13x on weekdays. Still a far cry from every hour all day though.

Weekend reductions are certainly a part of it. For AA DCA-BOS goes from 13X during the week to !!!! 2X !!! on Saturdays. That has to be the biggest single market intra-week frequency change I've ever seen.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1014
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:31 pm

williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Looks like some retrenchment at SMF for AS this summer. In addition to the previously announced Kona, Maui becomes only a tropical memory (SW seems to have run them off), and San Diego frequency cut to 3x daily from 4x. Please note this means FAT will have greater frequency to San Diego on Alaska than Sacramento in 2020...


1) Not super surprising considering that SMF is definitely a Southwest town and they have like a bajillion flights per day SMF-SAN.
2) I believe FAT-SAN existed on AS long before SMF-SAN did.


Oh... I don't know. You are never going to capture appreciable market share by challenging SW's 13-15 flights a day with a measly three. At about 50,000 pax a month, SMF-SAN averages in a single month not too much less than FAT-SAN does for the entire year.

It's a frequency-driven market. If you're only going to manage 3x/day at this point, why bother at all?


Yeah, I guess my point was that AS has peaked on that route with about 3 flights per day. They tried adding frequency and, apparently, the demand did not follow to the level that warranted it. Maybe they could capture enough market share if they went all out and did 8 or 9 per day, but I suspect not, because outside of SMF-SAN, they can only match WN on SMF- PDX, SEA, and maybe BOI. There will always be people who don't want to travel "Southwest style," but lots of people in Sac have switched over to it because WN owns so much of the market share. I was talking to a frequent WN flier a couple months back there who was completely used to having them cancel one out of about every four of her flights to SoCal, and remained completely loyal to them. She calmly explained she would just rebook on one flight earlier or later, which was usually only an hour difference. It sounded strange to hear how understanding she was, since a frequent flier for, say, UA or DL would probably never put up with that level of cancellation, but I think a lot of WN frequent fliers have completely different expectations, and they like the benefits they get in return.
 
abrelosojos
Posts: 4305
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 6:48 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:15 pm

enilria wrote:
FAQ

TP EWR-LIS JUN 1.0>1.5[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
[0]


= Another one?!

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4905
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:33 pm

sxf24 wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
enilria wrote:
Having said that, AS is basically retreating from ambitions to be a national carrier and de facto building the case for a future merger with B6 which I am not a fan of, but seems more inevitable with each passing month.


It's hard to see long-term viability for an airline that has a single large hub plus 1-2 focus cities all on the west coast. In addition to trying to keep gate space in SEA, these moves must be a precursor for some future strategic move. I agree the most likely scenario would be a tie-up with B6. How about a merger with WN? Not sure that would be allowed however.

As always, a great thread to see on Sunday morning. Thanks to you for your hard work!!


How is AS’ network structure unviable but B6’s is?

there's nothing wrong with AS except the lack of another Mid west hub as they need o establish another non western hub if they do not intend to be out flanked by both B6 or F9, It's not like DL, UA, WN, or AA are going to harm them as they're just doing what they do. If AS wants to play in the big boys? Then stop retreating yo the corner and come out and start swinging.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/22/2019:AS Cuts LAX-FLL/SLC,SFOMSY,OGGSMF,PAEPSP,PDXPHL,SANSLC;F9 Adds Many Routes;AA Cuts JFK Again;

Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:08 pm

AS has to pick their battles. They are pretty much at a stagnant fleet (and may be shrinking soon) until the MAX is returned to service. They are trying to hold onto Hawaii in their focus cities and hubs, have a meaningful presence on intra-CA routes, and protect SEA all at the same time.

For Hawaii, the key test will be if they can hold onto their focus city flights from SJC and SAN as WN is bigger in both cases. Intra-CA is tough as they have higher costs of using E175s...Legacies on a lot of routes...And a very established WN offering a lot more frequency and a lot of connections on both ends.

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