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FlyingElvii
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Re: First SkyCourier Wings Mated

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:58 am

ELBOB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This is great news. I'm very excited for the SkyCourier. In many ways, a modern DC-3.


Huh? It's a 19-pax / 2.5 tonne, unpressurised, high-wing turboprop; a configuration that's been tried about 30 times since the DC-3. What's so exciting? The fact that it says 'Cessna' on it?

It's a modern Skyvan except that type had a bigger cabin and a rear ramp.

Or you can go out right now and buy a C.212 that will take three LD3s through the rear ramp - no handling gear needed to lift up to an elevated cargo door. I really don't understand the hype.

It’s the VERSATILITY. That’s the reason for the hype.

Simple, well established, modern, modern and simple to maintain Off-the-shelf Garmin panel.
Simple and common engines that almost any “Jet Center” maintenance Anywhere in the world can work on.
AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL SUPPORT by a major US manufacturer, do not discount this.

It really Does have the potential to change the future for small and regional operators, beyond the huge third world markets for it, especially if the advertised numbers pan out.
Imagine a carrier like Cape, especially with the end of the pilot shortage, operating them on EAS and regional commuter runs during the day. Within 30-40 minutes after download, you start uploading cans for the overnight haul to a regional freight hub. In the morning, same procedure, 30-40 minutes after arrival, you start boarding pax and bags for the morning trip. Using the same crew pool, maint pool, training process, etc...

Much Higher utilization, lower break-even factor. Even as a Combi in the Bush, or say Alaska.

A single type operation covering multiple markets and industries.
THAT is why so many are excited about the potential, if Textron doesn’t manage to screw this up.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: First SkyCourier Wings Mated

Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:56 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
ELBOB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This is great news. I'm very excited for the SkyCourier. In many ways, a modern DC-3.


Huh? It's a 19-pax / 2.5 tonne, unpressurised, high-wing turboprop; a configuration that's been tried about 30 times since the DC-3. What's so exciting? The fact that it says 'Cessna' on it?

It's a modern Skyvan except that type had a bigger cabin and a rear ramp.

Or you can go out right now and buy a C.212 that will take three LD3s through the rear ramp - no handling gear needed to lift up to an elevated cargo door. I really don't understand the hype.

It’s the VERSATILITY. That’s the reason for the hype.

Simple, well established, modern, modern and simple to maintain Off-the-shelf Garmin panel.
Simple and common engines that almost any “Jet Center” maintenance Anywhere in the world can work on.
AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL SUPPORT by a major US manufacturer, do not discount this.

It really Does have the potential to change the future for small and regional operators, beyond the huge third world markets for it, especially if the advertised numbers pan out.
Imagine a carrier like Cape, especially with the end of the pilot shortage, operating them on EAS and regional commuter runs during the day. Within 30-40 minutes after download, you start uploading cans for the overnight haul to a regional freight hub. In the morning, same procedure, 30-40 minutes after arrival, you start boarding pax and bags for the morning trip. Using the same crew pool, maint pool, training process, etc...

Much Higher utilization, lower break-even factor. Even as a Combi in the Bush, or say Alaska.

A single type operation covering multiple markets and industries.
THAT is why so many are excited about the potential, if Textron doesn’t manage to screw this up.

I'm excited as:
1. Affordable. About 2/3rds of the price of the new build C.212 errr. N219. I wondered why FedEx didn't consider the N219 and price seems to be the #1 answer. Textron designs for cost of production. The C.212 did replace dome C47, but at a higher cost.
2. Design for low cost opperations. No one thing is exciting, but single point fueling, simple avionics, simple maintenance means this is a money maker.


Although we should be comparing to the N219, the successor to the C.212 (production halted years ago). Although N219 certification had funding issues and is stalled.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indones ... pace_N-219

I expected more than 76 flight hours by now:
https://txtav.com/en/newsroom/2020/08/m ... kes-flight

I also expected more sales. Alas, Covid19 will delay many (not FedEx, but others).

Usually aircraft end production for economic reasons (maintenance or fuel costs). These are all over $5 million dollar aircraft (when new), so they must offer good operating economics.

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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:23 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff9uZFB0qKQ&list=LLLSA-LIpD53tZLuwVo-4qzg&index=7

Textron released a more detailed video of the aircraft's development. We finally get a glimpse of the cockpit. Looks similar to that of the Denali.


Thanks for sharing that video. I'm excited about this program and anxious to see the future passenger variants as well.

Devilfish wrote:
Despite the difficult climate, the initial production conforming frame makes its first flight to advance the SkyCourier's test programme..... :airplane:
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... rst-flight
Note that one has the big cargo door but not windows on the port side. :boxedin:


https://txtav.com/en/newsroom/2020/08/momentum-builds-for-cessna-skycourier-as-second-test-article-takes-flight

Article mentions it is the first that is configured specifically as a freighter, hence no windows.

When P1 eventually goes to paint (1st production freighter), I wonder if they will also paint the prototype?

Deliveries had been expected to commence at the end of 2020. Even if it's been delayed a bit, we should start seeing some paint on a few of the 6 birds that will make up the flight test campaign.
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:44 pm

I'm as excited about this special purpose clean sheet design as I've been for another recent Italian Clean Sheet design, the Tecnam P2012 Traveller. They have so much in common, fixed landing gear, unpressurised cabin, stalwart engines (Lyc 540 / PW PT6A) that can be repaired anywhere, nearly the same speed and range, same Garmin G1000 NXi flightdeck. 9 and 19 pax counterparts.

Just really cool to see these niches get attention.
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FlyingElvii
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:44 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I'm as excited about this special purpose clean sheet design as I've been for another recent Italian Clean Sheet design, the Tecnam P2012 Traveller. They have so much in common, fixed landing gear, unpressurised cabin, stalwart engines (Lyc 540 / PW PT6A) that can be repaired anywhere, nearly the same speed and range, same Garmin G1000 NXi flightdeck. 9 and 19 pax counterparts.

Just really cool to see these niches get attention.

The end of the pilot shortage for the foreseeable future opens up a lot of possibilities.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:15 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I'm as excited about this special purpose clean sheet design as I've been for another recent Italian Clean Sheet design, the Tecnam P2012 Traveller. They have so much in common, fixed landing gear, unpressurised cabin, stalwart engines (Lyc 540 / PW PT6A) that can be repaired anywhere, nearly the same speed and range, same Garmin G1000 NXi flightdeck. 9 and 19 pax counterparts.

Just really cool to see these niches get attention.

The two really aren't comparable. The Sky Courier carrier far more (in weight) and thanks to gas turbines, will hold up to day after day of high utilization better (less vibration and engine maintenance). The P2012 is a far cheaper aircraft much better optimized for passengers, albeit, limited to 9. The P2012 really competes in markets not suitable for the 9-seat pressurized turboprops. Interesting, but the cargo capacity by weight is only about 40% of the SkyCourier and no LD3s. FedEx definitely will benefit from the LD3 capability, including the ramp to speed loading and reduce needed equipment at out stations. In fact, I would say the P2012 competes with the Cessna Caravan, not the SkyCourier. While the concepts are similar, utilization tends to drive towards turboprops due to much lower engine maintenance.

Bummer for the P2012 it entered service right as this downturn hit. :cry2:


I do think it is neat to see the niches filled. This is why I'm excited for the SkyCourier. I just haven't seen anything at a similar price point that can carry 3 LD3s. I'd like to see more range, but that would be for a later PiP and is more for my interest than market demand at the speeds the SkyCourier flies at.

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Noshow
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:13 am

I like those purely functional planes. Built around boxes that they are meant to carry. This still can require dome pretty smart engineering because cost is a key consideration. Not all this fancy stuff.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
FedEx definitely will benefit from the LD3 capability, including the ramp to speed loading and reduce needed equipment at out stations. In fact, I would say the P2012 competes with the Cessna Caravan, not the SkyCourier. While the concepts are similar, utilization tends to drive towards turboprops due to much lower engine maintenance.


Here in GRR we have A306s from MEM and IND with multiple C208s continuing to TVC, PLN, and CIU. So, I take it with the C408, LD3s will be loaded in MEM & IND with freight to final destination and no sorting & reloading at intermediate feeder cities like GRR. Likewise, no sorting & reloading in GRR for freight coming from TVC, PLN, and CIU.
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
9 and 19 pax counterparts.
Just really cool to see these niches get attention.

The two really aren't comparable.
Lightsaber


I think you missed my intention. They are complimentary, not direct competitors by any stretch of the imagination (well not my imagination anyway). Traveller is a great basic 9pax hauler..... SkyCourier is a fantastic basic 19pax / 3x LD3 hauler...
I was only drawing comparisons between adoption of common tech, concepts, and pieces/parts. Otherwise, different beasts for different missions...

Just awesome to see clean-sheet designs for both of thse different missions!

I think you and I both are equally excited to see the 408 emerge from the Heartland.
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:30 pm

Have there been any recent updates on this plane?

I know two prototypes have flown (initial and production spec)..
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:40 pm

Actually, I missed a very important piece of news a few months back...

P2 - The Initial Production Spec Prototype in Passenger Config was introduced and flew on September 28, 2020.

P1 - The Initial Production Spec Prototype in Freighter Config was flown in August 10, 2020.
The Initial Concept Prototype flew on May 17, 2020.

There are 3 examples in the test flight campaign. Textron hopes to certify the craft and delivery it to FedEx in the 2nd half of 2021.

I wonder if P1 will be delivered to FedEX or a follow-up build as the first SkyCourier in service for them. (Obviously there are a few in production in Wichita right now to meet the 1+ per month delivery schedule).
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filipinoavgeek
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:08 am

Have there been any non-FedEx orders so far?
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PC12Fan
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:24 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Have there been any non-FedEx orders so far?


Not to my knowledge, but it's a very useful platform. We may not see large FedEx type orders but IMO it's only a matter of time before other airlines/cargo opertors start ordering them.
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:01 pm

I thought it might be helpful to link a previous thread about the Textron Cessna 408 SkyCourier launch. There was some good information in that thread too (though much was speculation becuase it was so early in the program)

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1379851
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2175301
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:16 pm

PC12Fan wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Have there been any non-FedEx orders so far?


Not to my knowledge, but it's a very useful platform. We may not see large FedEx type orders but IMO it's only a matter of time before other airlines/cargo opertors start ordering them.


I believe everyone else is waiting for real world performance data from FedEx after it enters service. Cessna will be busy filling the FedEx slots for a few years. There is plenty of time for anyone else to order for delivery towards the end of the FedEx deliveries.

Have a great day,
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:14 am

2175301 wrote:
PC12Fan wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Have there been any non-FedEx orders so far?


Not to my knowledge, but it's a very useful platform. We may not see large FedEx type orders but IMO it's only a matter of time before other airlines/cargo opertors start ordering them.


I believe everyone else is waiting for real world performance data from FedEx after it enters service. Cessna will be busy filling the FedEx slots for a few years. There is plenty of time for anyone else to order for delivery towards the end of the FedEx deliveries.

Have a great day,

I concur everyone else will want real world data. While most will happily let FedEx sort out the issues, Textron could ramp production easily; that is their forte. I think it is a risk adverse group that wants to be behind FedEx by at least 2 years.

I will be shocked if the FedEx order doesn't grow significantly, but only after a year+ of in service data.

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CX747
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
2175301 wrote:
PC12Fan wrote:

Not to my knowledge, but it's a very useful platform. We may not see large FedEx type orders but IMO it's only a matter of time before other airlines/cargo opertors start ordering them.


I believe everyone else is waiting for real world performance data from FedEx after it enters service. Cessna will be busy filling the FedEx slots for a few years. There is plenty of time for anyone else to order for delivery towards the end of the FedEx deliveries.

Have a great day,

I concur everyone else will want real world data. While most will happily let FedEx sort out the issues, Textron could ramp production easily; that is their forte. I think it is a risk adverse group that wants to be behind FedEx by at least 2 years.

I will be shocked if the FedEx order doesn't grow significantly, but only after a year+ of in service data.

Lightsaber


Couldn't agree more. No reason to go out now. Let's watch Cessna, let's see what FEDEX does and then make our decision. If it is favourable, you will then see the rush to get in line behind FEDEX. This aircraft has the potential to fill so many roles it is amazing.

Cessna makes outstanding aircraft. They are just easy to fly, easy to fix aircraft that are durable and last forever. This new product is not a quantum leap but the next step for them. I hope they crush it.
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jreeves96
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:04 am

Just gonna throw this out of left field. Something I've been thinking about since this aircraft has been announced.

What's the likelihood of Amazon buying a couple for communities just out of trucking reach but not big enough for 737 or 767? Amazon has warehouses scattered all throughout America so I doubt there's a zip code that isn't covered. But what about like Montana and that region? Or using it to connect cities? Would this aircraft fit into Amazon's system or would they rely on their truck routes?

Edit ; I'll also throw Air Cargo Carriers and Ameriflight out there. Two companies that fly for DHL and UPS. Have they looked at upgrading their older aircraft? Obviously it's big jump from a Beech 99, but this industry is only growing.
 
CX747
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:12 am

jreeves96 wrote:
Just gonna throw this out of left field. Something I've been thinking about since this aircraft has been announced.

What's the likelihood of Amazon buying a couple for communities just out of trucking reach but not big enough for 737 or 767? Amazon has warehouses scattered all throughout America so I doubt there's a zip code that isn't covered. But what about like Montana and that region? Or using it to connect cities? Would this aircraft fit into Amazon's system or would they rely on their truck routes?

Edit ; I'll also throw Air Cargo Carriers and Ameriflight out there. Two companies that fly for DHL and UPS. Have they looked at upgrading their older aircraft? Obviously it's big jump from a Beech 99, but this industry is only growing.


Spot on. The aircraft's usefulness is not just for FEDEX. Other cargo carriers, large and small will more than likely put this aircraft to use. We will also see smaller pax operations move to this over time. There are just so many things that it can do well, with a mature engine, that truly the skies the limit. I could see numerous military applications for the aircraft also.

It is low tech, easy to fix, rugged and durable and a simple design. It has a ton going for it. One of the main things is Cessna. They can turn out a good product, at a good price and not mess things up.
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Okcflyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:13 am

jreeves96 wrote:
Just gonna throw this out of left field. Something I've been thinking about since this aircraft has been announced.

What's the likelihood of Amazon buying a couple for communities just out of trucking reach but not big enough for 737 or 767? Amazon has warehouses scattered all throughout America so I doubt there's a zip code that isn't covered. But what about like Montana and that region? Or using it to connect cities? Would this aircraft fit into Amazon's system or would they rely on their truck routes?


I highly doubt Amazon has the scale/volume to get costs lower than UPS / USPS in rural areas. While the Fx relationship is cold right now, it would be easy to go that route again if needed. Further, the rural areas have limited local options, and Therefore the slower delivery speed is does not cause competition (buying from local stores) as it does until the urban areas.

They still are still tons of opportunities to improve delivery network and timeliness in their high volume markets. I think this is where they will focus.

I wonder if any of UPS’s partners will order some. Financing will be a major issue for them. Other good candidate is DHL.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:30 am

Okcflyer wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Just gonna throw this out of left field. Something I've been thinking about since this aircraft has been announced.

What's the likelihood of Amazon buying a couple for communities just out of trucking reach but not big enough for 737 or 767? Amazon has warehouses scattered all throughout America so I doubt there's a zip code that isn't covered. But what about like Montana and that region? Or using it to connect cities? Would this aircraft fit into Amazon's system or would they rely on their truck routes?


I highly doubt Amazon has the scale/volume to get costs lower than UPS / USPS in rural areas. While the Fx relationship is cold right now, it would be easy to go that route again if needed. Further, the rural areas have limited local options, and Therefore the slower delivery speed is does not cause competition (buying from local stores) as it does until the urban areas.

They still are still tons of opportunities to improve delivery network and timeliness in their high volume markets. I think this is where they will focus.

I wonder if any of UPS’s partners will order some. Financing will be a major issue for them. Other good candidate is DHL.


I highly doubt it. UPS feeders are more than content flying B1900, SW4, and even down to Queen Airs until the wings fall off. They won’t have the capital to do what Fedex does with their feeders with their top-down system.
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jreeves96
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:11 am

The thing that stands out to me is it being capable of loading 3 LD3s. When I worked for DHL I've helped load the feeders. It's a pain in the butt. It's time consuming. You throw three AKE's in the warehouse and have them loaded it'll take 5 minutes max to get it loaded on the aircraft. And according to Cessna's website it has a payload of 6,000 pounds. That's 5,472 pounds of just freight, and for feeders that's a lot. And it's all containerized!

Honestly, if I had the funds I'd buy some and lease them to airlines that want them or start a feeder airline. This plane has all of my attention.
 
jreeves96
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:19 am

Okcflyer wrote:
I highly doubt Amazon has the scale/volume to get costs lower than UPS / USPS in rural areas. While the Fx relationship is cold right now, it would be easy to go that route again if needed. Further, the rural areas have limited local options, and Therefore the slower delivery speed is does not cause competition (buying from local stores) as it does until the urban areas.


Correct me if I'm wrong anybody.

But from what I've read and heard is that Amazon wants to be completely independent. The FedEx/Amazon partnership has sailed.. funny enough FedEx is still shipping a ton of Amazon freight for USPS. Here in Kentucky, I personally haven't had an Amazon shipment delivered by UPS since before covid hit. It's always Amazon or USPS. Hell, I just had Amazon drop off a package at 9:30pm.

My wild, wild, wild guess is that when Amazon gets their hub built they stray away from UPS/USPS. This is when I see the SkyCourier coming into play. Sending CVG sorted packages bound for cities close by. Unlike UPS or FedEx they don't have the express overnight delivery. But Amazon is Amazon and they're never satisfied. When you have 200 aircraft parked at CVG I bet they'll start offering 1 day packages more frequently.

Just my opinion and wishful thinking. I'm slightly obsessed with the Amazon operations and how they do things. Just the loadmaster in me.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:34 am

CX747 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
2175301 wrote:

I believe everyone else is waiting for real world performance data from FedEx after it enters service. Cessna will be busy filling the FedEx slots for a few years. There is plenty of time for anyone else to order for delivery towards the end of the FedEx deliveries.

Have a great day,

I concur everyone else will want real world data. While most will happily let FedEx sort out the issues, Textron could ramp production easily; that is their forte. I think it is a risk adverse group that wants to be behind FedEx by at least 2 years.

I will be shocked if the FedEx order doesn't grow significantly, but only after a year+ of in service data.

Lightsaber


Couldn't agree more. No reason to go out now. Let's watch Cessna, let's see what FEDEX does and then make our decision. If it is favourable, you will then see the rush to get in line behind FEDEX. This aircraft has the potential to fill so many roles it is amazing.

Cessna makes outstanding aircraft. They are just easy to fly, easy to fix aircraft that are durable and last forever. This new product is not a quantum leap but the next step for them. I hope they crush it.

I also agree with you. In my opinion the market needs a rugged dependable containerized aircraft.

Considering how conservative the market us, this is a plane to sell steady over decades.

Lightsaber
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WolfPDX
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:57 am

Spacepope wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Just gonna throw this out of left field. Something I've been thinking about since this aircraft has been announced.

What's the likelihood of Amazon buying a couple for communities just out of trucking reach but not big enough for 737 or 767? Amazon has warehouses scattered all throughout America so I doubt there's a zip code that isn't covered. But what about like Montana and that region? Or using it to connect cities? Would this aircraft fit into Amazon's system or would they rely on their truck routes?


I highly doubt Amazon has the scale/volume to get costs lower than UPS / USPS in rural areas. While the Fx relationship is cold right now, it would be easy to go that route again if needed. Further, the rural areas have limited local options, and Therefore the slower delivery speed is does not cause competition (buying from local stores) as it does until the urban areas.

They still are still tons of opportunities to improve delivery network and timeliness in their high volume markets. I think this is where they will focus.

I wonder if any of UPS’s partners will order some. Financing will be a major issue for them. Other good candidate is DHL.


I highly doubt it. UPS feeders are more than content flying B1900, SW4, and even down to Queen Airs until the wings fall off. They won’t have the capital to do what Fedex does with their feeders with their top-down system.

Would also require UPS to use LD3/AKEs over their AMP and AAZ ulds for lower deck freight. Other wise it would be all bulk loaded instead which for UPS is just fine in their eyes for now.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:49 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I thought it might be helpful to link a previous thread about the Textron Cessna 408 SkyCourier launch. There was some good information in that thread too (though much was speculation becuase it was so early in the program)

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1379851


This topic deserves a single thread and I have moved the old thread into this one.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:24 am

Just saw this Textron article in FG, over 400 hours in the flight test program, deliveries expected to start 2nd half 2021. If these are good planes there will be a lot going to Alaska, British Columbia, and areas with islands. It is just a workhorse, no glamour, but the operators want reliable economy so it is great. Cessna may have a 4 year + SkyCourier backlog between orders and options.

https://www.flightglobal.com/business-a ... 98.article
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:33 pm

About Amazon, I would expect them to go for electric aircraft.
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:50 pm

I love how much joy we all are getting from a flying jeep!
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:36 pm

Aesma wrote:
About Amazon, I would expect them to go for electric aircraft.


Look at how they actually operate—least expensive, simplest and proven tech. They’re not throwing money away.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:15 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aesma wrote:
About Amazon, I would expect them to go for electric aircraft.


Look at how they actually operate—least expensive, simplest and proven tech. They’re not throwing money away.


That and I highly doubt, with how air and ground are integrated along with their predictive algorithms that they will ever go for anything smaller than the 738.
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:41 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Just saw this Textron article in FG, over 400 hours in the flight test program, deliveries expected to start 2nd half 2021. If these are good planes there will be a lot going to Alaska, British Columbia, and areas with islands. It is just a workhorse, no glamour, but the operators want reliable economy so it is great. Cessna may have a 4 year + SkyCourier backlog between orders and options.

https://www.flightglobal.com/business-a ... 98.article

Good to hear the delivery schedule.

I am waiting on more orders. While my opinion hasn't changed that most potential opperators will let FedEx debug the plane, I cannot recall any other sales. That seems odd. I see a market.

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JayinKitsap
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:07 am

I believe they only have the Fedex order here, but it is for 50 + 50 options.

I see a market in particular for the freighter, but the 19 passenger also has promise.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:21 am

Revelation wrote:
I love how much joy we all are getting from a flying jeep!


It will be the last new airplane for a while. We take what we can get.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:34 am

Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.

Also, for those in the know, is this replacing the Caravan at FedEx?
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:44 am

KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.


As long as it can be had for $600,000.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:23 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Just saw this Textron article in FG, over 400 hours in the flight test program, deliveries expected to start 2nd half 2021. If these are good planes there will be a lot going to Alaska, British Columbia, and areas with islands. It is just a workhorse, no glamour, but the operators want reliable economy so it is great. Cessna may have a 4 year + SkyCourier backlog between orders and options.

https://www.flightglobal.com/business-a ... 98.article


A lot of those cargo carriers prefer used equipment. Heck there are still freight haulers flying the ancient Beech Model 99.

william wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I love how much joy we all are getting from a flying jeep!


It will be the last new airplane for a while. We take what we can get.


Actually there are several clean sheet 19 seaters in development at the moment. The Chinese have their Y-12F ( which just entered commercial service in September), the Indonesians have their N-219, and the Brazilians and Portuguese have launched a small transport of their own called the ATL-100. Lastly there is an ambitious aircraft project just launched by Embraer that will be a hybrid-electric powered military-civil transport carrying up to 30 people. All in all there is a lot of activity in the small aircraft market.

https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/ ... 26.article

https://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2020/1 ... craft.html
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2175301
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:04 am

alberchico wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Just saw this Textron article in FG, over 400 hours in the flight test program, deliveries expected to start 2nd half 2021. If these are good planes there will be a lot going to Alaska, British Columbia, and areas with islands. It is just a workhorse, no glamour, but the operators want reliable economy so it is great. Cessna may have a 4 year + SkyCourier backlog between orders and options.

https://www.flightglobal.com/business-a ... 98.article


A lot of those cargo carriers prefer used equipment. Heck there are still freight haulers flying the ancient Beech Model 99.

william wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I love how much joy we all are getting from a flying jeep!


It will be the last new airplane for a while. We take what we can get.


Actually there are several clean sheet 19 seaters in development at the moment. The Chinese have their Y-12F ( which just entered commercial service in September), the Indonesians have their N-219, and the Brazilians and Portuguese have launched a small transport of their own called the ATL-100. Lastly there is an ambitious aircraft project just launched by Embraer that will be a hybrid-electric powered military-civil transport carrying up to 30 people. All in all there is a lot of activity in the small aircraft market.

https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/ ... 26.article

https://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2020/1 ... craft.html


Not exactly new - but an important niche: Basler is still producing 4 BT-67's from DC-3's and C-47's per year at about $9 Million per copy for a modern version of the old classic with a Zero Hour logbook. I understand that about half of the last few years production has been for freighters for far north and far south operations, and more freighters are on order. Not a huge amount; but, it fills a niche. Amazing aircraft... Nothing else has lasted as long - or likely ever will.

Have a great day,
 
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alberchico
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:59 am

Almost forgot, this project was recently launched, first as a fire-fighting version but eventually down the line there will be a 19 seater version offered. Not to mention that the Twin Otter and the Let-410 are still in production in a heavily upgraded form. Lastly, there is a small start up company proposing an all electric 19 seat commuter aircraft. Frankly in my opinion it's a long shot but worth keeping an eye on. So if anything the small plane market will be saturated in the coming years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firecatcher_F-45

https://mentourpilot.com/heart-es-19-el ... vironment/

Image

Image
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:20 pm

MO11 wrote:
KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.


As long as it can be had for $600,000.

New build pricing will be an issue. However, with FedEx as the launch customer, we know the SkyCourier will be well debugged. At $5.5 million each, customers will wait for a debugged product.
https://www.airplaneupdate.com/2019/05/ ... urier.html

As for the competition, we will have to see. The MA-60/600 do not give confidence. In fact, the Y-12s history on Wikipedia is a bit scary...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbin_Y-12

The N-219 should have done well if it met timeline. But it didn't and isn't. I couldn't find an entry into service planned date except for really early dates that have come and gone:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indones ... pace_N-219

The Basler BT-67 is a unique aircraft with incredible pedigree in cold weather. I see no reason it won't soldier on for decades more.

As to the firecatcher F-45, I am having trouble on how an aircraft with so little horsepower can compete with the SkyCourier. I'm sorry, but as engines are expensive and not added on a whim. I'm not figuring out how a plane engined with just 50% more horsepower than the Cessna 208 competes with a plane that almost has 4x the horsepower. I've seen too many companies over-promise and under-deliver and that plane just isn't following the physics of the others.

I'll be the first to admit I expected more sakes of the Cessna 408. However, real competition needs to compete with the Textron support network. Numerous planes fail on poor parts and service support. There will be competition; however the proposed competition isn't as serious as some fans want to portray.

In effect, the market is Cessna 408 vs. BT-67 at this time with the new Cessna being far cheaper. We will just have to see if anyone else buys new. I personally think this recession took out the 19-seat market for years; I hope to be proven wrong.

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alberchico
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
MO11 wrote:
KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.


As long as it can be had for $600,000.

New build pricing will be an issue. However, with FedEx as the launch customer, we know the SkyCourier will be well debugged. At $5.5 million each, customers will wait for a debugged product.
https://www.airplaneupdate.com/2019/05/ ... urier.html

As for the competition, we will have to see. The MA-60/600 do not give confidence. In fact, the Y-12s history on Wikipedia is a bit scary...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbin_Y-12

The N-219 should have done well if it met timeline. But it didn't and isn't. I couldn't find an entry into service planned date except for really early dates that have come and gone:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indones ... pace_N-219

The Basler BT-67 is a unique aircraft with incredible pedigree in cold weather. I see no reason it won't soldier on for decades more.

As to the firecatcher F-45, I am having trouble on how an aircraft with so little horsepower can compete with the SkyCourier. I'm sorry, but as engines are expensive and not added on a whim. I'm not figuring out how a plane engined with just 50% more horsepower than the Cessna 208 competes with a plane that almost has 4x the horsepower. I've seen too many companies over-promise and under-deliver and that plane just isn't following the physics of the others.

I'll be the first to admit I expected more sakes of the Cessna 408. However, real competition needs to compete with the Textron support network. Numerous planes fail on poor parts and service support. There will be competition; however the proposed competition isn't as serious as some fans want to portray.

In effect, the market is Cessna 408 vs. BT-67 at this time with the new Cessna being far cheaper. We will just have to see if anyone else buys new. I personally think this recession took out the 19-seat market for years; I hope to be proven wrong.

Lightsaber



I agree that the Cessna 408 is going to be the aircraft to beat in the coming years. I am worried about the future of the Viking Twin Otter though. Not only does the Cessna have a lower list price, they will be able to offer deeper discounts because of their high volume production rate. And honestly, unless you need extreme STOL performance, the Skycourier is a superior aircraft in almost every respect. I can also see the Let-410NG having some moderate success because of the sheer number of operators in Eastern Europe and Africa that are familiar with the type. Not only is cheaper then the Cessna or Twin Otter but it still retains its legendary STOL capabilities as well as having a worldwide support network already in place.
Last edited by alberchico on Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Spacepope
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
MO11 wrote:
KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.


As long as it can be had for $600,000.

New build pricing will be an issue. However, with FedEx as the launch customer, we know the SkyCourier will be well debugged. At $5.5 million each, customers will wait for a debugged product.
https://www.airplaneupdate.com/2019/05/ ... urier.html

As for the competition, we will have to see. The MA-60/600 do not give confidence. In fact, the Y-12s history on Wikipedia is a bit scary...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbin_Y-12

The N-219 should have done well if it met timeline. But it didn't and isn't. I couldn't find an entry into service planned date except for really early dates that have come and gone:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indones ... pace_N-219

The Basler BT-67 is a unique aircraft with incredible pedigree in cold weather. I see no reason it won't soldier on for decades more.

As to the firecatcher F-45, I am having trouble on how an aircraft with so little horsepower can compete with the SkyCourier. I'm sorry, but as engines are expensive and not added on a whim. I'm not figuring out how a plane engined with just 50% more horsepower than the Cessna 208 competes with a plane that almost has 4x the horsepower. I've seen too many companies over-promise and under-deliver and that plane just isn't following the physics of the others.

I'll be the first to admit I expected more sakes of the Cessna 408. However, real competition needs to compete with the Textron support network. Numerous planes fail on poor parts and service support. There will be competition; however the proposed competition isn't as serious as some fans want to portray.

In effect, the market is Cessna 408 vs. BT-67 at this time with the new Cessna being far cheaper. We will just have to see if anyone else buys new. I personally think this recession took out the 19-seat market for years; I hope to be proven wrong.

Lightsaber


Yeah that whole Firecatcher project seems to be a high school marketing project witha good press release, we will see how it goes.

The main issue is since the advent of good small turbines like the PT6 and TPE713, there hasn't been much in technological or efficiency advancement to make the older crop of aircraft unwanted.

So we end up with a slew of Beech/Metro/CASA/Shorts that get pressed into cargo feeder service and will likely stay there till attrition takes care of them slowly. Even the South American drug runners are pretty happy with hauling cargo in King Airs, based on the seemingly weekly burnt out hulks.

FX backing this program is the same as throwing their capital behind the C208 decades ago. It ensures a good final product, and given a few years in service I expect not only top up orders from FX but other smaller operators pulling the trigger as the usual feeder supply dries up.
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2175301
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
In effect, the market is Cessna 408 vs. BT-67 at this time with the new Cessna being far cheaper. We will just have to see if anyone else buys new. I personally think this recession took out the 19-seat market for years; I hope to be proven wrong.
Lightsaber



alberchico wrote:
I agree that the Cessna 408 is going to be the aircraft to beat in the coming years. I am worried about the future of the Viking Twin Otter though. Not only does the Cessna have a lower list price, they will be able to offer deeper discounts because of their high volume production rate. And honestly, unless you need extreme STOL performance, the Skycourier is a superior aircraft in almost every respect. I can also see the Let-410NG having some moderate success because of the sheer number of operators in Eastern Europe and Africa that are familiar with the type. Not only is cheaper then the Cessna or Twin Otter but it still retains its legendary STOL capabilities as well as having a worldwide support network already in place.


As I see it its not quite apples to apples with the Cessna 408 (Sky Courier) and the BT-67. The BT-67 has about twice the passenger or load capability
Cesnna 408: ?? Cu Ft (3 LD 3's), 6000 Lb; 19 passenger
BT-76: 1225 Cu Ft, 14,000 Lb; I have heard 38 passengers - if anyone desired that: Never sold as a passenger aircraft.

IF its conventional cargo in areas without extreme weather or landing conditions. I believe the Cessna 408 will dominate the market.

Just as the BT-76 operates well in extreme environments - so does the Twin Otter. Extreme conditions, float plane operation, small cargo, etc. is the bread and butter of the Twin Otter.

I don't see the Let-410NG replacing the Twin Otter in most of its current applications. I see a long production life of the current Twin Otter 400.

So, while I see the under development Cessna Sky Courier taking the lions share of the small cargo and passenger market in its size range (+/- 50% cargo capacity), and while the LET-410NG may do reasonably well in Europe. I believe that both the BT-76 and the Twin Otter will continue for a very long time because of their ability to function in extreme environments and in the case of the BT-76 its cargo size range. Note that most BT-76's are special purpose aircraft with no real other decent option in its size range, only in the last few years have the cargo operators started buying them because certified parts for their existing DC-3/C47's are becoming scarce and expensive (unless you were one of the companies to buy a lot of surplus parts in the 1990's as the final surplus/salvaged WWII parts vendors were closing down - it can be tough or very expensive to get certified parts).

Have a great day,
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:08 pm

alberchico wrote:
Almost forgot, this project was recently launched, first as a fire-fighting version but eventually down the line there will be a 19 seater version offered. Not to mention that the Twin Otter and the Let-410 are still in production in a heavily upgraded form. Lastly, there is a small start up company proposing an all electric 19 seat commuter aircraft. Frankly in my opinion it's a long shot but worth keeping an eye on. So if anything the small plane market will be saturated in the coming years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firecatcher_F-45

https://mentourpilot.com/heart-es-19-el ... vironment/

Image

Image


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Gemuser
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:03 am

From: 2175301 Reply 343 " As I see it its not quite apples to apples with the Cessna 408 (Sky Courier) and the BT-67. The BT-67 has about twice the passenger or load capability
Cesnna 408: ?? Cu Ft (3 LD 3's), 6000 Lb; 19 passenger
BT-76: 1225 Cu Ft, 14,000 Lb; I have heard 38 passengers - if anyone desired that: Never sold as a passenger aircraft."

I can conifm the DC-3 was operated by AnsettMAL, in airline service, in a 36 passenger 2+2 configuration for at least 2 years, in the 1960s as I flew in across PNG on a number of occusions. [No I am not talking about the "side-saddle" congigurations]. TAA probably did too.

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lightsaber
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:15 am

Part of the reason Textron (Cessna's parent company) expects a delivery increase is the SkyCourier in 2021:
https://www.flightglobal.com/business-a ... 98.article

Lightsaber
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Canuck600
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:14 am

I don't see the Firecatcher as being to compete with the 415, smaller water capacity & single-engine, it won't have the capabilities of the 215.
 
HPRamper
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:17 am

KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.

Also, for those in the know, is this replacing the Caravan at FedEx?

No. This will be for expansion and right-sizing. I believe the first bunch are headed to the Europe operation.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2443
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:05 am

HPRamper wrote:
KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.

Also, for those in the know, is this replacing the Caravan at FedEx?

No. This will be for expansion and right-sizing. I believe the first bunch are headed to the Europe operation.


Around the time of the first assembly and the fire at the plant, there was a news piece on this. Fedex needs to replace some of their 208B's but also up gauge and expand.

Near the same time as the 408 order, Fedex also ordered (30) 72-600F, they are capable of (6) LD3's. so a lot in these two orders.

......

I find it of note that Fedex probably looked at every possibility of in service planes, but actually went with a clean sheet Cessna, which they already have 238 Cargomasters from. They also were the launch customer for the ATR 72-600F, not a small move to do. It looks like if these work as well as Fedex hopes, there could be 100+ for each of these.

The SkyCourier is like a double to triple of the Grand Caravan (Cargomaster?) How the engines compare:
1 × Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-114A turboprop, 675 shp (503 kW)
2 × Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-65SC turboprop, 1,100 hp (820 kW) each
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5144
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Cessna SkyCourier Development and Testing Thread

Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:06 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
KCaviator wrote:
Can’t think of a more perfect replacement for Air Cargo Carriers than this.

Also, for those in the know, is this replacing the Caravan at FedEx?

No. This will be for expansion and right-sizing. I believe the first bunch are headed to the Europe operation.


Around the time of the first assembly and the fire at the plant, there was a news piece on this. Fedex needs to replace some of their 208B's but also up gauge and expand.

Near the same time as the 408 order, Fedex also ordered (30) 72-600F, they are capable of (6) LD3's. so a lot in these two orders.

......

I find it of note that Fedex probably looked at every possibility of in service planes, but actually went with a clean sheet Cessna, which they already have 238 Cargomasters from. They also were the launch customer for the ATR 72-600F, not a small move to do. It looks like if these work as well as Fedex hopes, there could be 100+ for each of these.

The SkyCourier is like a double to triple of the Grand Caravan (Cargomaster?) How the engines compare:
1 × Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-114A turboprop, 675 shp (503 kW)
2 × Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-65SC turboprop, 1,100 hp (820 kW) each


Also to note - I've heard internally that even though these aircraft have the capability to carry containerized freight, they won't necessarily be doing that on all missions. Currently FX has ground crews bulk load both Cessna and ATR and at some or many locations will still be doing the same.
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