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jfklganyc
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What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:42 pm

Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

Assuming they divest, would WN be a good candidate for AA?

-Loaded with money
-No JFK presence
-Likely wont fly transcons to compete with AA
-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?
 
jfk777
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:48 pm

What us the fascination with people here and killing AA at JFk? They have a huge JFK terminal with enough space for all the OW JFK airlines including BA soon. AA is not going anywhere at JFK. IF SW wants a JFK presence they are going have to buy Jet Blue.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:08 pm

jfk777 wrote:
What us the fascination with people here and killing AA at JFk? They have a huge JFK terminal with enough space for all the OW JFK airlines including BA soon. AA is not going anywhere at JFK. IF SW wants a JFK presence they are going have to buy Jet Blue.


Because they regularly cut cities and frequencies from JFK? Not to mention that operating JFK-PHL, RIC, etc is nothing more than slot squatting. AA has a hub at PHL and a large operation at LGA. JFK is only good for LAX/SFO and their shuttle to LHR.
 
mjzair
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:20 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


You forgot the 5th option in your scenario, leave after a few years and blame it on aircraft availability.
 
HPRamper
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:24 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
What us the fascination with people here and killing AA at JFk? They have a huge JFK terminal with enough space for all the OW JFK airlines including BA soon. AA is not going anywhere at JFK. IF SW wants a JFK presence they are going have to buy Jet Blue.


Because they regularly cut cities and frequencies from JFK? Not to mention that operating JFK-PHL, RIC, etc is nothing more than slot squatting. AA has a hub at PHL and a large operation at LGA. JFK is only good for LAX/SFO and their shuttle to LHR.

What's your point? If JFK was a more lucrative hub they wouldn't be cutting flights. You're advocating they run a loss-leading operation, but they clearly aren't interested in that. If they want to slot-squat, so be it. If JFK were in higher demand there wouldn't be slack during the day there.
 
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STT757
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:15 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

Assuming they divest, would WN be a good candidate for AA?

-Loaded with money
-No JFK presence
-Likely wont fly transcons to compete with AA
-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


Help us out, can you explain further the benefits for WN of just leaving EWR where they had been established, had their own gates, and were about 18 months away from moving into a brand new terminal where they could had whatever setup they wanted including additional gates, to moving to Kennedy where they would be hard pressed to find any decent gate.

Also EWR historically is more popular for the destinations WN would fly (Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Denver etc.) for NY travelers where Kennedy airport has historically struggled to support flights to those destinations.

Also if WN couldn’t make EWR-MCO/FLL work why would Kennedy be better?




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MIflyer12
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:16 pm

Itf it's a significant slot transaction - more than a few, to a carrier that already has a large NYC slot portfolio - we might expect the DOT to have something to say about it. Encouraging access, preserving competition... those sorts of things.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:26 pm

HPRamper wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
What us the fascination with people here and killing AA at JFk? They have a huge JFK terminal with enough space for all the OW JFK airlines including BA soon. AA is not going anywhere at JFK. IF SW wants a JFK presence they are going have to buy Jet Blue.


Because they regularly cut cities and frequencies from JFK? Not to mention that operating JFK-PHL, RIC, etc is nothing more than slot squatting. AA has a hub at PHL and a large operation at LGA. JFK is only good for LAX/SFO and their shuttle to LHR.

What's your point? If JFK was a more lucrative hub they wouldn't be cutting flights. You're advocating they run a loss-leading operation, but they clearly aren't interested in that. If they want to slot-squat, so be it. If JFK were in higher demand there wouldn't be slack during the day there.


It sounds like you are agreeing with me that JFK isn't a lucrative operation for AA. But it certainly is for DL and B6.
 
SA280
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:26 pm

HPRamper wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
What us the fascination with people here and killing AA at JFk? They have a huge JFK terminal with enough space for all the OW JFK airlines including BA soon. AA is not going anywhere at JFK. IF SW wants a JFK presence they are going have to buy Jet Blue.


Because they regularly cut cities and frequencies from JFK? Not to mention that operating JFK-PHL, RIC, etc is nothing more than slot squatting. AA has a hub at PHL and a large operation at LGA. JFK is only good for LAX/SFO and their shuttle to LHR.

What's your point? If JFK was a more lucrative hub they wouldn't be cutting flights. You're advocating they run a loss-leading operation, but they clearly aren't interested in that. If they want to slot-squat, so be it. If JFK were in higher demand there wouldn't be slack during the day there.

The problem is that shrinking has only made AA a less preferable choice for high-yield passengers in such a key catchment area as NYC.

You might be a passenger that mostly flies to SFO, LAX and LHR. But eventually you will need to fly to DEN, LAS or PDX, and as an AA loyal customer you won't find non-stop flights, ending up flying DL or JB (or even UA out of EWR), or flying one-stop AA knowing that you could have flown directly and considering to choose other airlines to earn points in the future.

Level of service (number of destinations and frequencies) is extremely important for loyalty and capturing front-cabin passengers. The more AA divest at JFK, the less profitable are their remaining operations, as more loyal passengers migrate to other airlines. So, the vicious circle of axing loss-making markets never ends.

That's why so many people criticize AA strategy at JFK in the last few years.

But, back to topic, there is no way they will ever transfer their slots to WN...
 
tphuang
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:33 pm

Remember, aa still has a huge slot portfolio at lga. With all these high yielding types moving away due to those JFK cuts, those lga flights are going to become less and less profitable.

The fate of their JFK operation is pretty easy to see. When the next recession hits and aa is struggling, what they do with those lga slots will be the question.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:39 pm

WN has never shown any interest in JFK. They already have ISP for Long Island paxs. I assume AA will ultimately have a limited hub operation at JFK with only those flights with strong O&D demand but no AA is not going to shut down JFK to LAX and SFO (like UA did years ago).
 
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STT757
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:45 pm

I got another scenario, not saying it will happen but probably more likely than WN. UA is still flying CLE-DCA and LGA, 5 daily each.

UA trade 5 DCA and 5 LGA slots to AA for 13 Kennedy slots. UA launch 7 SFO and 6 LAX.


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Cointrin330
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:10 pm

Here we go, another AA closing down JFK thread. AA owns T8, and shares revenue on the world's only one billion dollar route (JFK-LHR). They are not going anywhere. They will continue to operate what they can profitably from JFK. The slots they are not using and keep rolling forward were part of an agreement they got with the PANYNJ and the DOT due to the runway construction at JFK which has now concluded. They can lease those slots, or they can relinquish them, by selling them. WN is not the candidate for JFK and would find profitability elusive there. WN's higher point of sales are TO NY and not from NY. The NY Area is a premium catchment area and WN does not make a compelling case for a choice from JFK or LGA for that matter, given all the other options. The A321XLR will allow AA to add some routes at JFK that it cannot fly profitably now with what it has (and to compensate for the loss of LATAM as a partner). Reminder to all the DL fanboys that per Delta's own information, JFK only turned profitable for them two years ago. As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:17 pm

[url][/url]
Miamiairport wrote:
WN has never shown any interest in JFK. They already have ISP for Long Island paxs. I assume AA will ultimately have a limited hub operation at JFK with only those flights with strong O&D demand but no AA is not going to shut down JFK to LAX and SFO (like UA did years ago).

Herbs WN said no the JFK slot Deal that "newAir/JetBlue took years ago in favor of ISP.
Now it's the GK WN I wouldn't be surprised if WN eventually ends up at JFK some day.
EWR only got chopped because of the MAX8 grounding. 90% of its aircraft time for flights to EWR freed up aircraft to cover the network and add more flights into a stalled Hawaii expansion caused by the MAX8 grounding.
Remember WN left the congested SFO and returned to fight another day. In 2yrs EWR will have a brand new terminal for everyone That's NOT United. The MAX8 issues should be done by then or They could be neck deep in a JetBlue Merger.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised if WN returns to EWR in the near future.
All that said I Don't see AA giving up anything at JFK. Yes There own MAX grounding problems have caused them to stall some JFK adds.
If Push comes to shove AA can easily shift capacity from PHX or DFW to temporarily use slots.


Flyguy
Last edited by wnflyguy on Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:21 pm

AA doesn't have any good options at JFK. Whatever they do is going to suck. Their golden-goose routes (NYC-LON and NYC-LAX/SFO) are slowing getting chipped away at by competitors. And maintaining the domestic feed is getting tricky with UA/DL and B6 all competing and lets face it having the highest cost structure of any of them.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:23 pm

I would prefer that they give them to Delta. Delta service is amazing compared to AA. AA is awful to fly right now as a paying passenger and it would be great to see the slots go to airlines focused on the customer. Slots should be allocated to airlines that provide travelers with a better experience and DL or WN would be a better choice for consumers.
 
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chepos
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What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:41 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
I would prefer that they give them to Delta. Delta service is amazing compared to AA. AA is awful to fly right now as a paying passenger and it would be great to see the slots go to airlines focused on the customer. Slots should be allocated to airlines that provide travelers with a better experience and DL or WN would be a better choice for consumers.


Pretty certain if American were to sell slots at JFK as per the request of certain posters here DL would be last on the list.


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LJ
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:42 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


Why does everybody expects B6 to be bought in the next downturn (now by AA, but the AS fanboys expect it to be bought be AS),? Couldn't it be that it remains independent and is actually the party which buys? Its financial perfomance is relatively good and by many metrics better than the ones of the legacies. Moreover, their cost structure isn't bad either.
 
mjzair
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:45 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


With the amount of debt and high cost AA has, will they survive the next downturn... let alone acquire anyone.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:54 pm

LJ wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


Why does everybody expects B6 to be bought in the next downturn (now by AA, but the AS fanboys expect it to be bought be AS),? Couldn't it be that it remains independent and is actually the party which buys? Its financial perfomance is relatively good and by many metrics better than the ones of the legacies. Moreover, their cost structure isn't bad either.


Because that is for sure what is happening. Too much money to be made taking B6 out as a competitor and utilizing their VERY lucrative terminals, gates, and slots. Money talks.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 5:17 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
I would prefer that they give them to Delta.


I don't think AA will be giving them away - they will be sold. Selling them to DL - the largest slot-holder at JFK and the carrier with the largest number of flights out of the PANYNJ NYC airports - is just what I was envisioning when I said the DOT might step in to prevent a larger carrier from obtaining them.

As for DOT allocation, you have to decide if preserving property rights (the slots are AA's to sell, not the DOT's to give away) is a priority or not. This is different from merger concessions to which AA/US voluntarily agreed to gain merger approval. (If they didn't want to agree they could have gone to court to force the DOJ to prove its case to prevent the merger.)

If you don't want to preserve property rights under law, sign over your house, car and investment accounts to me, please.
 
flyby519
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:51 pm

Why not UA as a candidate? Kirby makes no secret the desire to get back to JFK. They could even lease out a portion of T8 from AA.
 
x1234
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:30 pm

The BEST thing for AA is for their OneWorld partners to move into T8 (like CX, QF and LA (leaving soon?) already did). I'm waiting for JL (they use the AA terminal in ORD). With the updated construction and BA in they have the 11 largest cities in the entire world that's high yielding in their terminal (EZE, GRU, LHR, CDG, MAD, BCN, FCO, MXP, NRT, HND & HKG). Their ONLY missing YYZ & MEX (high share of *A & SkyTeam).
 
777Mech
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:51 pm

mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


You forgot the 5th option in your scenario, leave after a few years and blame it on aircraft availability.


Bingo!
 
Lootess
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:04 pm

mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


You forgot the 5th option in your scenario, leave after a few years and blame it on aircraft availability.



Yep, WN jumped at getting EWR slots and now they wasted no time getting out of the market. Blaming the MAX.
 
Detroit313
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:16 pm

What is this non sense on here?

AA owns along with BA the most profitable route in the world. JFK - LHR. It also has the best product compared to all other airlines, the 321T, on another very profitable route, JFK - LAX

For the first time in a very long time it is making money in New York.

All its international flights out of NY are strictly on 777 too.

When British Airways moves to Terminal 8 things will get even better.

If anything, for the first time in a very long time AA has a clear strategy that's working for JFK and makes money.
 
ABEguy
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:30 pm

Didn’t AA just start a daily flight to GEO in JFK?
 
CobaltScar
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:32 pm

ABEguy wrote:
Didn’t AA just start a daily flight to GEO in JFK?



Yes, copy catin B6.

Actually, what does the service look like for AA on that route? hot meal? I need for B6 to realize long haul without galley space for real service is the devil.
 
ABEguy
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:37 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
Didn’t AA just start a daily flight to GEO in JFK?



Yes, copy catin B6.

Actually, what does the service look like for AA on that route? hot meal? I need for B6 to realize long haul without galley space for real service is the devil.


JetBlue flies to GEO? Not seeing it anywhere from any city, including not from JFK. has JetBlue ever rolled wheels on in GEO ever? Just curious. And yes I’m sure the flight gets a hot meal. It’s like a 6 hour flight so.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:41 pm

Woops , service does not start until April.
 
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chepos
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:43 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Woops , service does not start until April.


I was about to say, AA announced JFK-GEO before B6 and has been flying to Guyana since 2018 (from MIA).


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ABEguy
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:47 pm

chepos wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Woops , service does not start until April.


I was about to say, AA announced JFK-GEO before B6 and has been flying to Guyana since 2018 (from MIA).


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Correct. So if AA was trying to “copy cat” JetBlues Guyana strategy, they would have flown exactly zero passenger to and from Guyana.
 
maverick4002
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:07 pm

ABEguy wrote:
Didn’t AA just start a daily flight to GEO in JFK?


Yes and in the Caribbean thread someone mentioned the 738 AA uses has had to make a fuel stop 3 in SJU three times already. Me thinks they need more plane or limit some seats.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:31 pm

Would they be dumb enough to sell some to UA?
 
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BMWdrvr75
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:08 pm

I honestly think WN is in a world of hurt right now with the Max crisis.... The only thing Gary and Friends is focused on right now is bringing the max back and Hawaii with whatever – 800 etops they have left....
We Make Flying Easy......Come fly the Silver Bird........Something Special in the Air......
 
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BMWdrvr75
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:09 pm

I honestly think WN is in a world of hurt right now with the Max crisis.... The only thing Gary and Friends is focused on right now is bringing the max back and Hawaii with whatever – 800 etops they have left....
We Make Flying Easy......Come fly the Silver Bird........Something Special in the Air......
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:53 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Would they be dumb enough to sell some to UA?


if AA were that 'desperate' enough to sell JFK slots to their major competitor, they'd be pretty sure that UA would be "paying through the nose" for those slots.

Saying that, AA selling slots to their major competitors (whether if it's UA or DL) seems unlikely at this time.
 
tphuang
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:47 am

Detroit313 wrote:
What is this non sense on here?

AA owns along with BA the most profitable route in the world. JFK - LHR. It also has the best product compared to all other airlines, the 321T, on another very profitable route, JFK - LAX

For the first time in a very long time it is making money in New York.

All its international flights out of NY are strictly on 777 too.

When British Airways moves to Terminal 8 things will get even better.

If anything, for the first time in a very long time AA has a clear strategy that's working for JFK and makes money.

so you are basically saying a 70 flights a day schedule for them is more profitable than a 119 flights a day schedule. Yes, it's now making money because they cut a lot of the unprofitable stuff. So the question is what to do with those 40 slots. And guess what, if they cut it down to just LHR, LAX, DFW, MIA, ORD, CLT and MAD, it will be even more profitable.

But what this strategy has done is killing their performance on all the non-hub routes. And that applies to their LGA performance also.
 
WN732
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:48 am

Miamiairport wrote:
WN has never shown any interest in JFK. They already have ISP for Long Island paxs. I assume AA will ultimately have a limited hub operation at JFK with only those flights with strong O&D demand but no AA is not going to shut down JFK to LAX and SFO (like UA did years ago).


There was a time where they didn't show interest in LGA either. But here we are.
 
nomorerjs
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:53 am

AA isn’t leaving JFK. They could easily run hourly / 30 minute shuttles to LAX/SFO/MIA/DFW/ORD. AA could also sell slots to UA (won’t happen).

While WN could be an option, the $ is too much for WN to pay. JFK is not LHR with regards to US domestic routes.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:38 am

MKIAZ wrote:
AA doesn't have any good options at JFK. Whatever they do is going to suck. Their golden-goose routes (NYC-LON and NYC-LAX/SFO) are slowing getting chipped away at by competitors. And maintaining the domestic feed is getting tricky with UA/DL and B6 all competing and lets face it having the highest cost structure of any of them.


Not sure that JFK-LHR is being "chipped away" by the competition. The growing competitive threat to AA/BA on the NYC to LHR route is UA at EWR, not DL/VS for now. UA is moving to standardize EWR to LHR around the premium heavy 767-300ER equipped with Polaris. DL's product compared to VS in the premium cabin is inferior, at least until the new Delta One mods are complete on the 767-400s and the A330-200/300s which are DL's mainstay on JFK-LHR. AA/BA have the frequency and the number of seats, and likely, a huge chunk of the corporate contracts and once they co-locate at T8 and BA finally ditches the 747-400s in favor of 777, A350 and other aircraft with the new generation Club World seat, their prominence will remain largely in place.
 
jfk777
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:17 am

Everyone here loves to trash AA at JFK but no one ever says how "Great" PHL or is it ? How well AA's Philadelphia hub doing ? any facts welcome.
 
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chepos
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What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:35 am

jfk777 wrote:
Everyone here loves to trash AA at JFK but no one ever says how "Great" PHL or is it ? How well AA's Philadelphia hub doing ? any facts welcome.


The OP and certain other of the JFK aficionados who have chimed in complain on the OAG thread with passion anytime there is any service change for AA at JFK. But they will moan and groan even louder if AA adds a flight at JFK (or anywhere for that matter). They just use these as a vehicle to cheerlead the airline they fan out for. One has been calling for AA to sell slots to B6 for a while, another to give them to DL, etc etc.


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TTailedTiger
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 3:00 am

CobaltScar wrote:
LJ wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


Why does everybody expects B6 to be bought in the next downturn (now by AA, but the AS fanboys expect it to be bought be AS),? Couldn't it be that it remains independent and is actually the party which buys? Its financial perfomance is relatively good and by many metrics better than the ones of the legacies. Moreover, their cost structure isn't bad either.


Because that is for sure what is happening. Too much money to be made taking B6 out as a competitor and utilizing their VERY lucrative terminals, gates, and slots. Money talks.


Ypu really think the DOJ is going to allow such a behemoth concentrated in NYC and BOS? No way in hell. If they were to ever be allowed to merge there would be so much required to be divested that it would be pointless. And why would you want such a thing? It would be horrible for consumers.
 
acentauri
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:31 am

jfk777 wrote:
Everyone here loves to trash AA at JFK but no one ever says how "Great" PHL or is it ? How well AA's Philadelphia hub doing ? any facts welcome.

In case you are unaware, New Yorkers hate Philadelphia and visa versa. It's a tradition going back to Benjamin Franklin :) :)
 
dstblj52
Posts: 408
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 6:07 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
LJ wrote:

Why does everybody expects B6 to be bought in the next downturn (now by AA, but the AS fanboys expect it to be bought be AS),? Couldn't it be that it remains independent and is actually the party which buys? Its financial perfomance is relatively good and by many metrics better than the ones of the legacies. Moreover, their cost structure isn't bad either.


Because that is for sure what is happening. Too much money to be made taking B6 out as a competitor and utilizing their VERY lucrative terminals, gates, and slots. Money talks.


Ypu really think the DOJ is going to allow such a behemoth concentrated in NYC and BOS? No way in hell. If they were to ever be allowed to merge there would be so much required to be divested that it would be pointless. And why would you want such a thing? It would be horrible for consumers.

No, I don't expect an AA merger to go through but an AS merger, not sure who would be buyer makes a whole lot of sense, just like America west and USAir did, that's unlikely to create antitrust concerns in NY just due to the few slots AS hold at any one of the new york area airports. Then they would have to manufacture a central hub or two which is challenging but not insurmountable, and you have 5 major airlines.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 6:18 am

dstblj52 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

Because that is for sure what is happening. Too much money to be made taking B6 out as a competitor and utilizing their VERY lucrative terminals, gates, and slots. Money talks.


Ypu really think the DOJ is going to allow such a behemoth concentrated in NYC and BOS? No way in hell. If they were to ever be allowed to merge there would be so much required to be divested that it would be pointless. And why would you want such a thing? It would be horrible for consumers.

No, I don't expect an AA merger to go through but an AS merger, not sure who would be buyer makes a whole lot of sense, just like America west and USAir did, that's unlikely to create antitrust concerns in NY just due to the few slots AS hold at any one of the new york area airports. Then they would have to manufacture a central hub or two which is challenging but not insurmountable, and you have 5 major airlines.


US Airways was on their last breath when America West bought them. I think a codeshare agreement between Alaska and Jetue would be a nice idea. But I can't see either one of them swallowing their pride to rid their identity. JetBlue Still sees themselves as fun and trendy, even though that hasn't been the case in years. And Alaska isn't going to give up a century of their brand and legacy lineage for some airline that isn't even 20 years old yet. It just doesn't work.
 
Busyboy2
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:57 am

Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:46 am

mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


You forgot the 5th option in your scenario, leave after a few years and blame it on aircraft availability.



Naw. SWA will be be flying 200 Max 8's and about 25 Max 7's by then. All the other infrastructure is already in place to do that. They've already got the crews and headquarters facilities. Just waiting on the jets.
 
LJ
Posts: 5289
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:15 am

CobaltScar wrote:
LJ wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


Why does everybody expects B6 to be bought in the next downturn (now by AA, but the AS fanboys expect it to be bought be AS),? Couldn't it be that it remains independent and is actually the party which buys? Its financial perfomance is relatively good and by many metrics better than the ones of the legacies. Moreover, their cost structure isn't bad either.


Because that is for sure what is happening. Too much money to be made taking B6 out as a competitor and utilizing their VERY lucrative terminals, gates, and slots. Money talks.


In a downturn, the legacies with their high cost structure (AA has a considerably higher cost per ASM) will be the most vunerable. Though it may be a good addition for AA (or AS), if the cost structure of B6 can support a downturn, the price to pay for B6 may be too high. Regardless of how well the network may fit.
 
bluecrew
Posts: 38
Joined: Sun Apr 20, 2014 3:13 am

Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:48 am

BMWdrvr75 wrote:
I honestly think WN is in a world of hurt right now with the Max crisis.... The only thing Gary and Friends is focused on right now is bringing the max back and Hawaii with whatever – 800 etops they have left....

This is correct.
The MAX was not ETOPS capable when it was EIS. I'm not sure about now, but I would assume being withdrawn from line service wouldn't facilitate that.
WN is in a rock/hard place. A very hard place. 60 or so Classics left the fleet to be replaced with ~40 MAX's only to have them yanked out of service 9 months later. WN was banking on those deliveries to cover the expansions planned... I don't see how Hawaii is sustainable in the long term the longer the MAX out of service continues. You can only do literally so much with so many frames on 36 minute turns.

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