lowfareair
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:49 am

nomorerjs wrote:
AA isn’t leaving JFK.


Nobody in this thread is saying that they are. What is being said is that AA has considerably fewer flights than slots at the moment, and they are slot squatting on even more with RJ flights to random cities that could be served by LGA for local traffic or PHL for Euro-connections.

For a while they received a waiver on their slots' "use it or lose it" clause due to the JFK runway renovations. They may receive a temporary waiver while the MAX is out of service, but don't expect PANYNJ to allow that for too long, especially if they start looking at %age of each hub's flights AA axed due to the MAX (JFK would be 1st or 2nd). At some point AA either needs to add a bunch of flights back or sell/lease the slots they are not currently using.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:36 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
LJ wrote:

Why does everybody expects B6 to be bought in the next downturn (now by AA, but the AS fanboys expect it to be bought be AS),? Couldn't it be that it remains independent and is actually the party which buys? Its financial perfomance is relatively good and by many metrics better than the ones of the legacies. Moreover, their cost structure isn't bad either.


Because that is for sure what is happening. Too much money to be made taking B6 out as a competitor and utilizing their VERY lucrative terminals, gates, and slots. Money talks.


Ypu really think the DOJ is going to allow such a behemoth concentrated in NYC and BOS? No way in hell. If they were to ever be allowed to merge there would be so much required to be divested that it would be pointless. And why would you want such a thing? It would be horrible for consumers.


The airline business has never been about consumers. NYC won't be a problem for AA/B6 if a merger, however unlikely that would be, from a DOJ point of view. It would simply level the playing field across the US3 in the NY market and even with B6, AA would still most likely be #3. Where the DOJ would look is South Florida. MIA/FLL and some divestiture would likely be needed there. BOS, probably not much beyond relinquishing a few slots.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:14 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
The airline business has never been about consumers. NYC won't be a problem for AA/B6 if a merger, however unlikely that would be, from a DOJ point of view. It would simply level the playing field across the US3 in the NY market and even with B6, AA would still most likely be #3.


I wouldn't predict how much duplication AA/B6 might seek to end, nor how much they might grow by using new market power, but simple addition of PANYNJ data YTD October show AA/B6 would be number 1 in NYC by passenger count, not number 3.

https://www.panynj.gov/airports/en/stat ... -info.html

That the airline business hasn't been about consumers is why Congress took merger approval power away from the DOT ~twenty years ago and gave it to the DOJ, which developed clear horizontal market merger criteria that have been used since the mooted UA/US merger of 2000.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:53 pm

mjzair wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


With the amount of debt and high cost AA has, will they survive the next downturn... let alone acquire anyone.


They might not considering they lost money in this quarter last year flying passengers when their competitor made $8 billion for the year. I still think Doug has been planning to purchase B6 for awhile now and why he did the swap deal with Delta at LGA and then began to pulldown JFK. Doug is good at and enjoys making mergers happen.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 3:04 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
EWR only got chopped because of the MAX8 grounding.


Really? Are you sure about that?

Here's a good data-driven article explaining it: https://crankyflier.com/2019/08/01/why- ... ng-newark/
In the end, it was a laggard. Southwest uses NY for people trying to get to NY, not the other way around. It wasn't doing good in Newark, and there's no mincing words about that. If WN can't do well in EWR, it is only natural to wonder how they would manage JFK.
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:58 pm

What is WN?
 
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AirKevin
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 6:00 pm

Subwayfan1998 wrote:
What is WN?

Southwest Airlines.
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Subwayfan1998
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 6:01 pm

AirKevin wrote:
Subwayfan1998 wrote:
What is WN?

Southwest Airlines.


Thank You, I Undestand Now.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:27 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
EWR only got chopped because of the MAX8 grounding.


Really? Are you sure about that?

Here's a good data-driven article explaining it: https://crankyflier.com/2019/08/01/why- ... ng-newark/
In the end, it was a laggard. Southwest uses NY for people trying to get to NY, not the other way around. It wasn't doing good in Newark, and there's no mincing words about that. If WN can't do well in EWR, it is only natural to wonder how they would manage JFK.


EWR Numbers while not the greatest they were making a small profit on EWR investment.
But if you have to kill something to address the MAX8 grounding problem and to quickly Add much needed capacity to the new lucrative Hawaii flying. EWR with it's padded aircraft times made the most since to cut. Because you can still have LGA for NYC traffic and PHL for a good backdoor to New Jersey traffic.

Remember WN has always been the master of PR spin since its inception.

If The Max hadn't been grounded it wouldn't have been cut just kept making enough money to stay alive like IAD.

Most NYC travelers pick LGA as airport of choice then JFK.

JFK would feed Western US WN strong holds Not available from LGA.

Flyguy


Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 10:55 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
EWR only got chopped because of the MAX8 grounding.


Really? Are you sure about that?

Here's a good data-driven article explaining it: https://crankyflier.com/2019/08/01/why- ... ng-newark/
In the end, it was a laggard. Southwest uses NY for people trying to get to NY, not the other way around. It wasn't doing good in Newark, and there's no mincing words about that. If WN can't do well in EWR, it is only natural to wonder how they would manage JFK.


EWR Numbers while not the greatest they were making a small profit on EWR investment.
But if you have to kill something to address the MAX8 grounding problem and to quickly Add much needed capacity to the new lucrative Hawaii flying. EWR with it's padded aircraft times made the most since to cut. Because you can still have LGA for NYC traffic and PHL for a good backdoor to New Jersey traffic.

Remember WN has always been the master of PR spin since its inception.

If The Max hadn't been grounded it wouldn't have been cut just kept making enough money to stay alive like IAD.

Most NYC travelers pick LGA as airport of choice then JFK.

JFK would feed Western US WN strong holds Not available from LGA.

Flyguy


Flyguy

Every data I looked at showed ewr was hemorrhaging money and then wn admitted so. I don't know where your objection to these things come from.
 
mjzair
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:33 pm

afcjets wrote:
mjzair wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
As for the next downturn, I can see AA acquiring B6. That would solve AA's NY problem.


With the amount of debt and high cost AA has, will they survive the next downturn... let alone acquire anyone.


They might not considering they lost money in this quarter last year flying passengers when their competitor made $8 billion for the year. I still think Doug has been planning to purchase B6 for awhile now and why he did the swap deal with Delta at LGA and then began to pulldown JFK. Doug is good at and enjoys making mergers happen.


I am pretty sure they had no choice but to do the swap at LGA with Delta as a result of the US AA merger...
 
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Aisak
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:22 am

x1234 wrote:
The BEST thing for AA is for their OneWorld partners to move into T8 (like CX, QF and LA (leaving soon?) already did). I'm waiting for JL (they use the AA terminal in ORD). With the updated construction and BA in they have the 11 largest cities in the entire world that's high yielding in their terminal (EZE, GRU, LHR, CDG, MAD, BCN, FCO, MXP, NRT, HND & HKG). Their ONLY missing YYZ & MEX (high share of *A & SkyTeam).


The whole airport needs relocating several airlines for better efficiency. But there is a serious lack of terminal space. Terminal 8 has yet to extend its floor plan to the space it was set to occupy per design. Not only IB and BA should move there once the Terminal 7 lease expires for good, but also QR afternoon flights (morning ones already at 8). And that’s it. There is the new income from these 3 new tenants but also the investment needed for them to fit, so... And that space is now missing.

There are other airlines at T7 because no other terminal has space available. I doubt Eurowings prefers to pay a rent to BA instead of using the LH part owned T1.

While JL morning flights would fit now at T8 along AA, why would they move from a part-owned terminal to pay rent as a tenant?

T3 is yet to be rebuilt as a T1-2-3 complex, but that space is now missing.
Where are all those airlines at T7 going? Alaska, Eurowings, Ukraine, LOT, Aerolíneas Argentinas...
When JFK planned construction ends, there might be some airline shuffling to group partners together and use the limited space more efficiently, but for now...
 
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chepos
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What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:24 am

mjzair wrote:
afcjets wrote:
mjzair wrote:

With the amount of debt and high cost AA has, will they survive the next downturn... let alone acquire anyone.


They might not considering they lost money in this quarter last year flying passengers when their competitor made $8 billion for the year. I still think Doug has been planning to purchase B6 for awhile now and why he did the swap deal with Delta at LGA and then began to pulldown JFK. Doug is good at and enjoys making mergers happen.


I am pretty sure they had no choice but to do the swap at LGA with Delta as a result of the US AA merger...


What swap are you referring to? The DL/US slot swap was way before US/AA merged. The slot swap occurred even before AA was in BK. The slot swap deal was first announced in 2009 and was finalized in 2011 (I believe).


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maps4ltd
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:45 am

wnflyguy wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
EWR only got chopped because of the MAX8 grounding.


Really? Are you sure about that?

Here's a good data-driven article explaining it: https://crankyflier.com/2019/08/01/why- ... ng-newark/
In the end, it was a laggard. Southwest uses NY for people trying to get to NY, not the other way around. It wasn't doing good in Newark, and there's no mincing words about that. If WN can't do well in EWR, it is only natural to wonder how they would manage JFK.


Remember WN has always been the master of PR spin since its inception.


Exactly, which is how they could pin this on the MAX.
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Detroit313
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:27 am

Why would AA care about JFK when it owns an East Coast gateway to Europe like PHL. JFK is for airlines who lack and East Coast gateway like Delta.

AA is good at what matters from JFK. Serving LHR and LAX. Along with other big business centers.
 
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tlecam
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:22 am

Detroit313 wrote:
Why would AA care about JFK when it owns an East Coast gateway to Europe like PHL. JFK is for airlines who lack and East Coast gateway like Delta.

AA is good at what matters from JFK. Serving LHR and LAX. Along with other big business centers.


I think that AA’s moves at JFK are making them less competitive in NYC in general, especially with business travelers, and are depressing systemwide revenue and yields as a result.
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:38 am

Only on this forum you'd read that the airline that runs a shuttle along with its JV partner between JFK and LHR, the most profitable route in the world, would consider exiting.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:00 am

Detroit313 wrote:
Only on this forum you'd read that the airline that runs a shuttle along with its JV partner between JFK and LHR, the most profitable route in the world, would consider exiting.


I don't think AA will ever exit JFK. But I do see more cute in the future. There is no need for American Eagle at LGA. Most all O/D prefers LGA and JFK offers no unique destinations that would provide connecting opportunities. Their current regional flights are nothing more than slot squatting. I think it will eventually be cut to LAX, SFO, PHX, LHR, MAD. I really don't see any need for DFW, ORD, MIA, CLT since they have a zillion flights to LGA and EWR And currently only have a token presence at JFK. And definitely not PHL for obvious reasons.
 
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chepos
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:08 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Only on this forum you'd read that the airline that runs a shuttle along with its JV partner between JFK and LHR, the most profitable route in the world, would consider exiting.


I don't think AA will ever exit JFK. But I do see more cute in the future. There is no need for American Eagle at LGA. Most all O/D prefers LGA and JFK offers no unique destinations that would provide connecting opportunities. Their current regional flights are nothing more than slot squatting. I think it will eventually be cut to LAX, SFO, PHX, LHR, MAD. I really don't see any need for DFW, ORD, MIA, CLT since they have a zillion flights to LGA and EWR And currently only have a token presence at JFK. And definitely not PHL for obvious reasons.


I understand you are trying to paint a doom and gloom scenario but why would AA exit markets such as BCN (which they serve year round out of JFK unlike PHL), EZE, GRU, FCO (whose season they extended this year), CDG, MXP, and you want to cut even MiA and CLT? Come one now.


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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:21 am

chepos wrote:
I understand you are trying to paint a doom and gloom scenario but why would AA exit markets such as BCN (which they serve year round out of JFK unlike PHL), EZE, GRU, FCO (whose season they extended this year), CDG, MXP, and you want to cut even MiA and CLT? Come one now.



I had forgot about BCN. I agree that would stay. But I think the rest of those international destinations will be gone when the next recession hits. There's no way AA can fill a 777 to CDG, FCO, MXP, EZE, GRU with no connections on either end. Remember that they no longer have a South American partner. Delta has a full hub at JFK and it has unique destinations the other hubs don't have. They also have several partners throughout Europe and South America. AA has a large hub a few miles away at PHL where they have plenty of connecting passengers. That's where they need to focus.
 
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chepos
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:34 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
chepos wrote:
I understand you are trying to paint a doom and gloom scenario but why would AA exit markets such as BCN (which they serve year round out of JFK unlike PHL), EZE, GRU, FCO (whose season they extended this year), CDG, MXP, and you want to cut even MiA and CLT? Come one now.



I had forgot about BCN. I agree that would stay. But I think the rest of those international destinations will be gone when the next recession hits. There's no way AA can fill a 777 to CDG, FCO, MXP, EZE, GRU with no connections on either end. Remember that they no longer have a South American partner. Delta has a full hub at JFK and it has unique destinations the other hubs don't have. They also have several partners throughout Europe and South America. AA has a large hub a few miles away at PHL where they have plenty of connecting passengers. That's where they need to focus.


AA is not going to drop a massive market like JFK-GRU to move it to PHL. That is just silly.


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EA CO AS
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:06 am

STT757 wrote:
I got another scenario, not saying it will happen but probably more likely than WN. UA is still flying CLE-DCA and LGA, 5 daily each.

UA trade 5 DCA and 5 LGA slots to AA for 13 Kennedy slots. UA launch 7 SFO and 6 LAX.


AA wouldn't sell JFK slots to anyone who wanted to fly a premium transcon product head-to-head against them on two of the markets from JFK that AA would want to retain. So, no B6, no DL, and definitely no UA.

But that doesn't rule out selling them to AS, who AA doesn't consider a competitor on those routes from JFK since they offer a domestic F product, but not premium.
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:51 am

Why in the world would AA eliminate it's international destinations or MIA route out of JFK? The NYC area has a huge O & D market, and in all honesty, both LGA and JFK are not exactly mega hubs for either DL or B6 to serve as a transiting point. NYC has a large population of people from South America that sustain these routes perfectly without the need to fly through say MIA or ATL. I also think that LHR, CDG, FCO, BCN are all pretty self explanatory. AA doesn't need to feed any of these flights, and I would say it's obvious for the moment that AA is content being in the number 3 spot out of JFK and serve more as a "focus" city rather than a small hub. I just flew them this week to MIA and I counted no less than 10 777s parked at terminal 8 with 2 more parked at the AA hangars, and both flights to MIA within an hour and half from each other were completely booked. Do you honestly think that many NYers will want to drive down to PHL to catch an AA flight to Europe or South America? AA at JFK isn't going anywhere, and WN at JFK is even less likely to occur. They got bigger fish to fry right now than to contemplate flying to JFK.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:08 pm

STT757 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

Assuming they divest, would WN be a good candidate for AA?

-Loaded with money
-No JFK presence
-Likely wont fly transcons to compete with AA
-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


Help us out, can you explain further the benefits for WN of just leaving EWR where they had been established, had their own gates, and were about 18 months away from moving into a brand new terminal where they could had whatever setup they wanted including additional gates, to moving to Kennedy where they would be hard pressed to find any decent gate.

Also EWR historically is more popular for the destinations WN would fly (Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Denver etc.) for NY travelers where Kennedy airport has historically struggled to support flights to those destinations.

Also if WN couldn’t make EWR-MCO/FLL work why would Kennedy be better?






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Love to help you out!

Lower costs at JFK

More pax at JFK

More pax from Manhattan at JFK

More gate space at JFK

NYC-Caribbean flows to JFK in much higher numbers than JFK


Closely resembles the historical airline trend of a LGA/JFK setup

But I dont need to tell you all that. You are very well versed on PA stats.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:08 pm

mjzair wrote:
afcjets wrote:
mjzair wrote:

With the amount of debt and high cost AA has, will they survive the next downturn... let alone acquire anyone.


They might not considering they lost money in this quarter last year flying passengers when their competitor made $8 billion for the year. I still think Doug has been planning to purchase B6 for awhile now and why he did the swap deal with Delta at LGA and then began to pulldown JFK. Doug is good at and enjoys making mergers happen.


I am pretty sure they had no choice but to do the swap at LGA with Delta as a result of the US AA merger...


Nope. Delta and USAirways agreed to swap slots between DCA and LGA in 2011. AA and US merged in 2013. They're not related. US was essentially squatting on slots at LGA and flying turboprops to a number of markets in order to hold on to them. US was always relatively large at LGA going back to the 1990s, partly as a consequence of the acquisition of Piedmont and several other legacy carriers that were merged into USAir at the time but from a market share point of view, US was not a major NY player. It operated from the Central Terminal until 1992 when it moved into Terminal C which was built for Eastern/Continental but sold to USAir by Frank Lorenzo (EA/CO never operated out of it). US was never really big in NY from a market share perspective other than the BOS/DCA Shuttle operation, a slew of domestic flights out of LGA, and a token presence at JFK (CLT, PHX, LAS) and EWR. Delta was intent on building out LGA as a hub operation to complement its JFK operation. US Airways considered DCA a hub and a lucrative one it was, so much so that it is today one of the most profitable in the AA route map. Delta wasn't interested in DCA. The AA/US merger had nothing to do with the slot swap with DL but it showed how little Doug Parker and his team, who ran US at the time, understood or valued the NY market and still don't.
 
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STT757
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:19 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
STT757 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Obviously at some point soon, American will either have to divest the 20 or 30 slots they are not using or start using them.

Assuming they divest, would WN be a good candidate for AA?

-Loaded with money
-No JFK presence
-Likely wont fly transcons to compete with AA
-Will stick it to B6 and DL on Florida and Island flying

obviously this all occurs after Max issues are sorted out and AA decides not to use the slots...

Thoughts?


Help us out, can you explain further the benefits for WN of just leaving EWR where they had been established, had their own gates, and were about 18 months away from moving into a brand new terminal where they could had whatever setup they wanted including additional gates, to moving to Kennedy where they would be hard pressed to find any decent gate.

Also EWR historically is more popular for the destinations WN would fly (Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Denver etc.) for NY travelers where Kennedy airport has historically struggled to support flights to those destinations.

Also if WN couldn’t make EWR-MCO/FLL work why would Kennedy be better?






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Love to help you out!

Lower costs at JFK

More pax at JFK

More pax from Manhattan at JFK

More gate space at JFK

NYC-Caribbean flows to JFK in much higher numbers than JFK


Closely resembles the historical airline trend of a LGA/JFK setup

But I dont need to tell you all that. You are very well versed on PA stats.


Lower costs, lol..

EWR serves the most domestic passengers of the three NYC airports. WN is mostly domestic

History of JFK/ LGA dual ops shows little benefit.

They had their own gates at EWR, plus a new Terminal about to open.

EWR travelers also skew more
Towards business travelers with higher incomes.


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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:35 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
What is this non sense on here?

AA owns along with BA the most profitable route in the world. JFK - LHR. It also has the best product compared to all other airlines, the 321T, on another very profitable route, JFK - LAX


JFK-LHR is not the most profitable route in the world, it just generates the most revenue....big difference
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tphuang
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:51 pm

Again, nobody is saying AA is leaving NYC or JFK. That would be crazy. The question is whether or not it can sustain a 110 flight schedule or whatever is required to keep its slot holdings. And also whether or not FAA should be taking them away.

The reality is that AA cutting JFK to 70 flights has had a serious negative effect on rest of their NYC performance. I don't have international data, but JFK-LAX yield vs Delta is down quite a bit vs 2 years ago. And they are down to 11x daily vs 13x daily to begin with and that is with the lower capacity A321T. JFK-SFO yield vs DL is also down quite a bit vs 2 years ago. And they are only flying it 3x daily on Saturdays. Such is the trend of these domestic routes that used to golden goose for AA's JFK operation. SEA is completely cut. SAN has only operated for a few weeks since MAX grounding started. LAS hasn't flown for a while. And these are your most important beyond the perimeter business markets out of JFK. Hard to expect people not to book away on SAN/LAS when you keep canceling those flights.

AA has the lowest margins of any publicly traded US airlines and it's not particularly close. Could you imagine what their margin would be if they have to fly those 40 unused slots for a year?
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:38 pm

it seems strange, JFL was built for international service while LGA and EWR were built for domestic service. Once UA moved to EWR then airlines as of late are trying to get into EWR. but I think WN might be better at LGA rather than JFK. Jfk is out on LI and less central than LGA. Just Because JBLU is there does not indicate everybody needs to be there as B6 also has set up shop at EWR as well. WN's strategy is unclear in leaving EWR.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:44 pm

This thread is depressing to read. The OP clearly asks about AA divesting a handful of their JFK slots, and most of the replies act like the proposal is for AA to exit JFK entirely. Woeful reading comprehension.
 
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STT757
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:38 pm

After what DL did to AA with LATAM, AA needs to put some pressure on DL.


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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:11 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
chepos wrote:
I understand you are trying to paint a doom and gloom scenario but why would AA exit markets such as BCN (which they serve year round out of JFK unlike PHL), EZE, GRU, FCO (whose season they extended this year), CDG, MXP, and you want to cut even MiA and CLT? Come one now.



I had forgot about BCN. I agree that would stay. But I think the rest of those international destinations will be gone when the next recession hits. There's no way AA can fill a 777 to CDG, FCO, MXP, EZE, GRU with no connections on either end. Remember that they no longer have a South American partner. Delta has a full hub at JFK and it has unique destinations the other hubs don't have. They also have several partners throughout Europe and South America. AA has a large hub a few miles away at PHL where they have plenty of connecting passengers. That's where they need to focus.


This is just so misinformed it is almost funny. First, BCN, MAD, CDG, MXP, EZE, and GRU are all unique spokes in the AA system. All have been served a very long time from JFK by AA and as someone who regularly flies to BCN, CDG, LHR, and EZE out of JFK, these flights go out full (cargo and pax). AA even cited that transitioning to an all 777 long haul operation at JFK in March 2019 has boosted cargo revenue and AA has a very competitive product in the front of the plane on the 777s vs. the 763s that they replaced, notably to CDG and MAD, the last two 763 TATL routes AA had ex-JFK. FCO was just extended to a longer seasonal route, JFK-LHR is a $1BN route for AA/BA and DL/VS and UA don't even come close there. Second, Delta has a hub at JFK, yes, but "full hub", I don't think so. The only carrier in NYC that actually has a full hub under one roof is UA, and that is at EWR serving TPAC, TATL, Middle East, Africa (as of this month), Latin America, Caribbean, etc..) Delta has a large operation at JFK which by its own admission was a loss maker until about 2 years ago, given all the infrastructure investment. Please tell us what unique destinations Delta serves from JFK that other hubs don't have? Virtually all of DL's long haul flights at JFK have at least one competitor, when you factor UA. Delta has a formidable presence in the NY market, that's true, and it invested heavily (and probably smartly in it too) but please cut the Delta fan boy nonsense. Delta depends on its Sky Team partners far more than UA does with Star or AA does with OW on the majority of long haul markets it serves, globally. As for PHL, AA has less competition there and the hub makes money, but they aren't suggesting pax fly through PHL from NYC to get to Europe. AA's operation at all of NYC airports is O&D focused and for the most part, always has been. JFK was always a 75-125 daily departure operation. It was never the 500+ mega hub folks here think of it as far as potential or lost status.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:05 pm

Of course, the same old line of it was full when I flew, so it must be profitable.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:18 pm

I think we can agree AA giving slots to WN is not happening, so let’s discuss how AA can become more competitive. How about a good old fashioned fare war and some status matching. Throw in some
Poaching of DL contracts.


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N649DL
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:43 pm

flyby519 wrote:
Why not UA as a candidate? Kirby makes no secret the desire to get back to JFK. They could even lease out a portion of T8 from AA.


This is what I was thinking as well, as odd as it might be for UA to in an otherwise all OW terminal at JFK.

BTW, WN left EWR not just because of the MAX Groundings. They never found their niche at EWR and were always changing up their route portfolio there for the decade they were there. And they were really frustrated by EWR delays and landing / gate fees.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:41 pm

STT757 wrote:
I think we can agree AA giving slots to WN is not happening, so let’s discuss how AA can become more competitive. How about a good old fashioned fare war and some status matching. Throw in some
Poaching of DL contracts.


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I think most would disagree with you.

AA easily has 25 slots not being used at JFK at present.

They likely have some waiver from the PA (you would know more about this than me) due to the Max issue

At some point, they need to use the slots or sell them

Keep in mind this is all happening in a booming economy. NYC is firing on all economic cylinders at present...this will not last forever.

Next downturn could see AA reduce JFK to a large spoke. Nothing more.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:47 pm

STT757 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
STT757 wrote:

Help us out, can you explain further the benefits for WN of just leaving EWR where they had been established, had their own gates, and were about 18 months away from moving into a brand new terminal where they could had whatever setup they wanted including additional gates, to moving to Kennedy where they would be hard pressed to find any decent gate.

Also EWR historically is more popular for the destinations WN would fly (Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Denver etc.) for NY travelers where Kennedy airport has historically struggled to support flights to those destinations.

Also if WN couldn’t make EWR-MCO/FLL work why would Kennedy be better?






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Love to help you out!

Lower costs at JFK

More pax at JFK

More pax from Manhattan at JFK

More gate space at JFK

NYC-Caribbean flows to JFK in much higher numbers than JFK


Closely resembles the historical airline trend of a LGA/JFK setup

But I dont need to tell you all that. You are very well versed on PA stats.


Lower costs, lol..

EWR serves the most domestic passengers of the three NYC airports. WN is mostly domestic

History of JFK/ LGA dual ops shows little benefit.

They had their own gates at EWR, plus a new Terminal about to open.

EWR travelers also skew more
Towards business travelers with higher incomes.


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Lol?

North of $2 per pax less at JFK vs EWR.

On a 160 seat plane...

2x160=$320. At 25 flights a day $8000

That is $2.9 million a year

Lol!

Not! That is why NJ is a financial mess. Too many politicians saying “Lol” as they tax and fee people to death. NY is a close number 2. Much like JFK
 
Detroit313
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:49 pm

Things will get better when the MAX comes back.
 
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STT757
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:54 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
STT757 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:



Love to help you out!

Lower costs at JFK

More pax at JFK

More pax from Manhattan at JFK

More gate space at JFK

NYC-Caribbean flows to JFK in much higher numbers than JFK


Closely resembles the historical airline trend of a LGA/JFK setup

But I dont need to tell you all that. You are very well versed on PA stats.


Lower costs, lol..

EWR serves the most domestic passengers of the three NYC airports. WN is mostly domestic

History of JFK/ LGA dual ops shows little benefit.

They had their own gates at EWR, plus a new Terminal about to open.

EWR travelers also skew more
Towards business travelers with higher incomes.


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Lol?

North of $2 per pax less at JFK vs EWR.

On a 160 seat plane...

2x160=$320. At 25 flights a day $8000

That is $2.9 million a year

Lol!

Not! That is why NJ is a financial mess. Too many politicians saying “Lol” as they tax and fee people to death. NY is a close number 2. Much like JFK


EWR also has higher average fares, so the slightly higher cost is negligible and as mentioned EWR handles the most domestic traffic of any NYC airport so it’s not driving anyone away. In fact EWR has better service from the LCCs than Kennedy.


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INFINITI329
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:19 pm

If WN can focus on the New York market, they should be able to succeed at JFK. The formula used at LGA will not work at JFK.
 
AADFWFlyer
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:03 am

This is a known entity from AA, as they have announced strategy to downsize a bit at JFK, as they are absorbing their own MAX-8 issues as well, along with WN and UAL. Believe if my numbers are correct, they are going up to 100 of the MAX-8's and had expected many more in the fleet at this point, but as you all know the three carriers have put their tentative resumption of MAX-8 services to April or May of next year. AA also has mentioned on several posts related to strategy, the daily flights will pick up to the 110-120 range at JFK, and with continuation of moving BA to JFK Terminal 8, other OW carriers to same, along with multiple Terminal 8 renovations - part of the overall business strategy, etc. The critical link here obviously the return of the MAX-8's to the fleet....... we shall see. As doubt or even out of consideration AA will give up any slots to competitors, whether it be UAL, WN, DL....
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:10 am

As WN couldn't make EWR-MCO and EWR-FLL work, and it exited EWR completely, I have doubts it would have interest in JFK. Both EWR and JFK are high cost airports. I don't think WN would be the right fit.

However, maybe AA could try to regain a better position in LGA. AA could use all of NK's LGA slots (12 departures a day) and the ones UA uses for LGA-CLE (5). That would bring about 17 more departures to strengthen the LGA operations and it could add TPA (4 flights/day), JAX (3), MKE (3), GRR (3), BUF (3) while balancing two from somewhere. AA could inform the DOJ that it is adding competition to all of these markets, and with exception of Tampa, those markets have only have DL on it from LGA, note DL is still larger in LGA by far, and there is still a decent mix of other carrier competition, citing Southwest and JetBlue's presence. If structured as a ten year lease deal (like AS did with LGA/DCA), and given the context, the DOJ could approve the lease.

In exchange, it would offer NK and UA slots/gates at JFK on a 2 or 3 slot pairs at JFK per 1 at LGA basis, or if UA doesn't want JFK, some of AA's gates at EWR.

NK could hopefully have 20-30 daily departures out of JFK, at least twice as big as its LGA operation. That would be viewed as increasing competition as Spirit would drive down fares for NYC with more flights. As an example as it is limited at LGA, Spirit could run 4-5x daily on JFK-MCO.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:07 am

STT757 wrote:
After what DL did to AA with LATAM, AA needs to put some pressure on DL.


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What if AA merged with JetBlue ? Delta or United can't since they already have huge New York hubs but AA doesn't. AA/JB would control Terminals 5,6,7 & 8. That would be a Chess game I would love to see.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:32 am

jfk777 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
After what DL did to AA with LATAM, AA needs to put some pressure on DL.


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What if AA merged with JetBlue ? Delta or United can't since they already have huge New York hubs but AA doesn't. AA/JB would control Terminals 5,6,7 & 8. That would be a Chess game I would love to see.


Here’s the problem with AA/B6.

First Florida, B6 has big ops in MCO and FLL. AA doesn’t want either nor would they be allowed to control MIA and FLL. Maybe they could sell the FLL and or MCO ops to UA.

Second, does AA really want more hubs in the Northeast? They already have DCA, PHL, LGA and despite what people are saying JFK. Do they really want to add more JFK and a huge Boston operation?

Again I don’t think they want that much of the Northeast nor do I think regulators would acquiesce.

I think AA likes DCA and PHL, and if they got the chance they would grow LGA.

Another option I’ve pondered is for AA and UA to swap IAD for LGA and or Kennedy.

Combining IAD and DCA would give AA real
Pricing power in the lucrative DC/ Northern Virginia market where UA struggles to compete domestically with DCA and where AA lacks any international network.

Acquiring AA’s LGA slots and some Kennedy slots would further solidify UA’s dominance in the NY market.

It would work for both.


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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:03 am

STT757 wrote:
AA doesn’t want either nor would they be allowed to control MIA and FLL.


...yet...

STT757 wrote:
Combining IAD and DCA would give AA real
Pricing power in the lucrative DC/ Northern Virginia market where UA struggles to compete domestically with DCA and where AA lacks any international network.

STT757 wrote:
Acquiring AA’s LGA slots and some Kennedy slots would further solidify UA’s dominance in the NY market.

??
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:02 pm

Just going to leave this here by saying it's probably my favorite airline commercial.

https://youtu.be/Fayz_MOTFns
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superjeff
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:20 pm

mjzair wrote:
afcjets wrote:
mjzair wrote:

With the amount of debt and high cost AA has, will they survive the next downturn... let alone acquire anyone.


They might not considering they lost money in this quarter last year flying passengers when their competitor made $8 billion for the year. I still think Doug has been planning to purchase B6 for awhile now and why he did the swap deal with Delta at LGA and then began to pulldown JFK. Doug is good at and enjoys making mergers happen.


I am pretty sure they had no choice but to do the swap at LGA with Delta as a result of the US AA merger...



The Delta swap was done way before the merger.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:29 pm

This whole thread (and all the others like them we seem to have on this group) ignores the fact that American is a "FOR PROFIT" business. They have to maximize profit of their stakeholders get unhappy (which is, shall we say, "not good"). With the US merger, American had a mega-hub in PHL where they could offer international connections they weren't able to offer from JFK. And it is what, 75 miles away? If you're starting out in "flyover country", do you really care if you fly through JFK, PHL, IAD, or somewhere else (like DFW, IAH, ORD, ATL, etc.)? One Stop is one stop. New York has adequate O/D business that AA can serve through its BA/IB/AY Joint venture and directly. It has a few other JFK flights, but doesn't need JFK like, say, Delta does. You folks in New York aught to realize that there is life on the other side of the Hudson River.
 
tphuang
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:15 pm

superjeff wrote:
This whole thread (and all the others like them we seem to have on this group) ignores the fact that American is a "FOR PROFIT" business. They have to maximize profit of their stakeholders get unhappy (which is, shall we say, "not good"). With the US merger, American had a mega-hub in PHL where they could offer international connections they weren't able to offer from JFK. And it is what, 75 miles away? If you're starting out in "flyover country", do you really care if you fly through JFK, PHL, IAD, or somewhere else (like DFW, IAH, ORD, ATL, etc.)? One Stop is one stop. New York has adequate O/D business that AA can serve through its BA/IB/AY Joint venture and directly. It has a few other JFK flights, but doesn't need JFK like, say, Delta does. You folks in New York aught to realize that there is life on the other side of the Hudson River.

That has nothing to do with this thread. The question here is not about whether or not AA needs to have a hub at JFK, but rather what does it intend to do with the slots that it has not used for a year. If it doesn't intend to have a hub at JFK, then there will be even more slots that it doesn't need.
 
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Re: What if AA JFK slots to WN?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:17 pm

STT757 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
STT757 wrote:

Lower costs, lol..

EWR serves the most domestic passengers of the three NYC airports. WN is mostly domestic

History of JFK/ LGA dual ops shows little benefit.

They had their own gates at EWR, plus a new Terminal about to open.

EWR travelers also skew more
Towards business travelers with higher incomes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro



Lol?

North of $2 per pax less at JFK vs EWR.

On a 160 seat plane...

2x160=$320. At 25 flights a day $8000

That is $2.9 million a year

Lol!

Not! That is why NJ is a financial mess. Too many politicians saying “Lol” as they tax and fee people to death. NY is a close number 2. Much like JFK


EWR also has higher average fares, so the slightly higher cost is negligible and as mentioned EWR handles the most domestic traffic of any NYC airport so it’s not driving anyone away. In fact EWR has better service from the LCCs than Kennedy.


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How could you claim that? JFK has a LCC hub with a 175 flights per day.

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