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trini81
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Wed Dec 25, 2019 10:56 pm

Just to note... Caribbean Airlines flies jfk/geo/jfk non-stop on 737-800 daily year round.
The difference being the seat count on CAL as opposed to AA
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:21 pm

As if AA needs any more trouble on a VFR route from JFK that will soon see B6 competition...
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:02 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
As if AA needs any more trouble on a VFR route from JFK that will soon see B6 competition...


I don't see the route lasting long once B6 enters. B6 has a plane with a realistic seat count and proper plane that it will use (A21N with 1 ACT, good for about 3200-3300 nmi). B6 also has a better product than AA, which will drive AA off this route. JFK-GEO cannot support 3 carriers.
 
EK216
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:33 am

I guess this is some relief for those at BW. Though I don't think they were ever worried about AA entering the market- B6 is what they should be worried about in my opinion. I think AA would have the most to lose (even further).
Last edited by EK216 on Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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usxguy
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:51 am

What is the diversion airport/alternate for JFK-GEO? I wonder if that's part of the issue...
xx
 
CanesFan
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:09 am

usxguy wrote:
What is the diversion airport/alternate for JFK-GEO? I wonder if that's part of the issue...

Tonight it’s BVB. Just a little over 5000 lbs planned for GEO-BVB. Total fuel on board just under 41000 lbs.
 
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chepos
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AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:15 am

EK216 wrote:
I guess this is some relief for those at BW. Though I don't think they were ever worried about AA entering the market- B6 is what they should be worried about in my opinion. I think AA would have the most to lose (even further).



It’s not as if BW has not had it’s issues in GEO, google BW 523.


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LimaFoxTango
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:46 am

CanesFan wrote:
usxguy wrote:
What is the diversion airport/alternate for JFK-GEO? I wonder if that's part of the issue...

Tonight it’s BVB. Just a little over 5000 lbs planned for GEO-BVB. Total fuel on board just under 41000 lbs.


I'm surprised its not POS, but I guess BVB is closer.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:27 am

N757ST wrote:

Isnt a raft required over 50 miles off shore? Bermuda is a bit more involved, an HF radio is required at least. There is one small area east of L462 that exceeds the 60 minute requirement, but otherwise all the L routes are available and are pretty in line for GEO ops, I don’t think anyone is going east of L462.


You know what. You are right. When did the FAA change this rule? Could have sworn the rule here in Canada was the same as in the US. I remember checking this a few years back.

Here in the Great White North, following Transport Canada regulations, you dont require a life raft for overwater flights as long as you stay within 400nm from a suitable alternate at all times (basically the equivalent of 60 min diversion time on one engine). Basically an Air Canada A320 flying YYZ-BDA doesn't require life rafts on board. Only life jackets. Heck, most of AC's Caribbean ops dont require life rafts.
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DashTrash
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:50 am

Thenoflyzone wrote:
N757ST wrote:

Isnt a raft required over 50 miles off shore? Bermuda is a bit more involved, an HF radio is required at least. There is one small area east of L462 that exceeds the 60 minute requirement, but otherwise all the L routes are available and are pretty in line for GEO ops, I don’t think anyone is going east of L462.


You know what. You are right. When did the FAA change this rule? Could have sworn the rule here in Canada was the same as in the US. I remember checking this a few years back.

Here in the Great White North, following Transport Canada regulations, you dont require a life raft for overwater flights as long as you stay within 400nm from a suitable alternate at all times (basically the equivalent of 60 min diversion time on one engine). Basically an Air Canada A320 flying YYZ-BDA doesn't require life rafts on board. Only life jackets. Heck, most of AC's Caribbean ops dont require life rafts.

Raft requirements have been the same for as long as I’ve been flying. I haven’t seen any recent changes.


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usflyguy
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 4:45 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
As if AA needs any more trouble on a VFR route from JFK that will soon see B6 competition...


I don't see the route lasting long once B6 enters. B6 has a plane with a realistic seat count and proper plane that it will use (A21N with 1 ACT, good for about 3200-3300 nmi). B6 also has a better product than AA, which will drive AA off this route. JFK-GEO cannot support 3 carriers.


B6 isn’t exactly flying high in financial performance... something is going to have to give at some point with the blue people.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
747fan
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:12 am

The heavy bag loads on the southbound JFK-GEO leg seems to be what is driving the fuel stops. These flights have had a very heavy volume of bags...at least 250 bags, with combined bag/cargo weights in excess of 8,000lb. In contrast, a typical MIA-SFO flight probably will have about half of that amount of bags/cargo weight.
The northbound flight did divert to SJU last night, but this was a medical diversion rather than a fuel stop.
 
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zeke
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:16 am

Thenoflyzone wrote:

Here in the Great White North, following Transport Canada regulations, you dont require a life raft for overwater flights as long as you stay within 400nm from a suitable alternate at all times (basically the equivalent of 60 min diversion time on one engine). Basically an Air Canada A320 flying YYZ-BDA doesn't require life rafts on board. Only life jackets. Heck, most of AC's Caribbean ops dont require life rafts.


Is it possible to get an A320 without slide rafts ?

This 400 mm rule you mentioned is a new one to me. I thought TC was 50 nm over water like the rest of the world.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
bourbon
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:24 am

baje427 wrote:
The Max has really thrown AA for a loop but as others have mentioned this demonstrates to the residents in Guyana that the route is not viewed as priority. With summer season over don't AA have slack with their 757's?

AA really likes to use the Max as convenient scape goat for all their whoas
 
N757ST
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:18 am

usflyguy wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
As if AA needs any more trouble on a VFR route from JFK that will soon see B6 competition...


I don't see the route lasting long once B6 enters. B6 has a plane with a realistic seat count and proper plane that it will use (A21N with 1 ACT, good for about 3200-3300 nmi). B6 also has a better product than AA, which will drive AA off this route. JFK-GEO cannot support 3 carriers.


B6 isn’t exactly flying high in financial performance... something is going to have to give at some point with the blue people.


They aren’t exactly in financial peril either. Very little debt and forecast to make 700 million next year.
 
ltbewr
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:35 am

Don't forget that delays in take offs and arrivals at JFK due to weather and traffic may mean a fuel stop to assure sufficient reserves.
 
F27500
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:39 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
Wait isn't Dynamic going to start the flight from JFK-GEO?



Yea .. they'll last for about 45 minutes.


I agree. Maybe they should stick to ACMI.


Great way to shut down fast ... try and become a scheduled airline.
 
x1234
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:45 pm

Remember Latin Americans like to SHOP for family in the USA. This is similar to East Asia a few years ago where VFR would always bring very heavy luggage's for family. But recently as American multi-nationals have expanded their presence into Latin America & East Asia the same stuff in the stores here in the USA are available over there too reducing the need for heavy luggage's. There's limited stores in GEO, Guyana (similar with Cuba) so people literally bring the whole kitchen sink with them south-bound.
 
sw733
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:34 pm

x1234 wrote:
Remember Latin Americans like to SHOP for family in the USA. This is similar to East Asia a few years ago where VFR would always bring very heavy luggage's for family. But recently as American multi-nationals have expanded their presence into Latin America & East Asia the same stuff in the stores here in the USA are available over there too reducing the need for heavy luggage's. There's limited stores in GEO, Guyana (similar with Cuba) so people literally bring the whole kitchen sink with them south-bound.


Guyana generally isn’t considered Latin America. Now, there is still an excessive amount of baggage to worry about, but...just FYI, Guyana and Suriname are usually left out of being considered Latin America; the other South American countries are considered such.
 
JBLUA320
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:55 pm

To say that it's AA de-prioritizing the route seems silly, although I know that perception and media influence in places like GEO could actually hurt AA in the long run. AA should know all about this from its days as the primary airline in the Dominican and Puerto Rico, but still, public perception isn't going to change the route planners' minds on how to launch a route.

My assumption is AA knew they were pushing it with a 737-800 on this route, but it's what was available and on paper, should make it just fine. They're now finding that with winter winds and what I'm sure is a bulked out cargo bin, the plan may need re-evaluating. They've done that and have weight restricted the airplane, as another poster has commented.

If the seat blocking doesn't resolve the issue, they'll change the equipment or change the baggage rules and it will be just fine. Give it time - a lot of routes/airlines have issues at start up where what worked on paper doesn't work in actual premise. Heck, JetBlue's been tech-stopping on A320 transcons from BOS since they started flying out of Logan! And you know what? They're doing just fine.
 
EK216
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:05 pm

chepos wrote:
EK216 wrote:
I guess this is some relief for those at BW. Though I don't think they were ever worried about AA entering the market- B6 is what they should be worried about in my opinion. I think AA would have the most to lose (even further).



It’s not as if BW has not had it’s issues in GEO, google BW 523.


Yes I know about BW523 and I am not saying that BW has not had its own fair share of issues.

But I am sure BW recovered from the fallout of that, considering that accident happened almost a decade ago. And if my memory serves correct, that was not the only incident in which an aircraft overshot GEO's runway which caused a write-off.

To BW's credit, they've never stopped GEO-JFK despite competition, so clearly they must be doing something right.
 
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mercure1
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:07 pm

VFR markets during the Christmas time; probably seeing > 2 bags per passenger and heavy bags, even charging extra bag fees.
Plan probably going out at MZFW
mercure f-wtcc
 
jakeroberts212
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:19 pm

I’m curious about all the comments about the excessive luggage being brought. AA sets luggage rules - how many bags and how much each bag can weigh. So if excessive luggage is to blame for the unplanned stops, even though AA weighs all checked luggage, then why are they allowing so much luggage/weight onboard?
 
ryby92
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm

EK216 wrote:
chepos wrote:
EK216 wrote:
I guess this is some relief for those at BW. Though I don't think they were ever worried about AA entering the market- B6 is what they should be worried about in my opinion. I think AA would have the most to lose (even further).



It’s not as if BW has not had it’s issues in GEO, google BW 523.


Yes I know about BW523 and I am not saying that BW has not had its own fair share of issues.

But I am sure BW recovered from the fallout of that, considering that accident happened almost a decade ago. And if my memory serves correct, that was not the only incident in which an aircraft overshot GEO's runway which caused a write-off.

To BW's credit, they've never stopped GEO-JFK despite competition, so clearly they must be doing something right.


So you are implying that BW can recover fully from a major accident resulting in loss of aircraft but because it is AA they can't recover from three or four fuel stops? And they have since weight restricted the aircraft to eliminate the tech stop? Help me out here.
 
alasizon
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:34 pm

jakeroberts212 wrote:
I’m curious about all the comments about the excessive luggage being brought. AA sets luggage rules - how many bags and how much each bag can weigh. So if excessive luggage is to blame for the unplanned stops, even though AA weighs all checked luggage, then why are they allowing so much luggage/weight onboard?


AA will still accept overweight (up to 99.9 lbs) and excess baggage; you just pay more for them. That is part of what makes these VFR markets so profitable during the holiday seasons (as well as what makes them a challenge).

GEO is part of AA's baggage embargo program where passengers are not supposed to be able to check more than two pieces and no bags over 70lbs. That being said, it still happens. All it takes is one agent that forgets or tries to "be nice" for the holidays and poof you have an issue.

Lets assume that all 154 passengers southbound check one 30lb bag and one 60lb bag; that alone is 13,860lbs of payload (coupled with a pax weight of 30,030 lbs, assuming no children at standard winter weight). Those pounds quickly add up. I'm not sure if GEO is using standard bag weights or the higher VFR bag weights that AA uses out of MIA for some of the Caribbean markets but if they are using the higher VFR weights, you start eating into the range quite quickly.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
tphuang
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:20 pm

ryby92 wrote:
EK216 wrote:
chepos wrote:


It’s not as if BW has not had it’s issues in GEO, google BW 523.


Yes I know about BW523 and I am not saying that BW has not had its own fair share of issues.

But I am sure BW recovered from the fallout of that, considering that accident happened almost a decade ago. And if my memory serves correct, that was not the only incident in which an aircraft overshot GEO's runway which caused a write-off.

To BW's credit, they've never stopped GEO-JFK despite competition, so clearly they must be doing something right.


So you are implying that BW can recover fully from a major accident resulting in loss of aircraft but because it is AA they can't recover from three or four fuel stops? And they have since weight restricted the aircraft to eliminate the tech stop? Help me out here.


Well when bw had these issues in the year past, they had no competition outside of some eastern airlines charter flights. Now there are going to be there airlines. There is less room for mishaps.

Long term, the biggest issue facing both airlines is that b6 is running a321neo here. The cost on that is so much lower than 150 seat b738.
 
OB1504
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:42 pm

Is AA using the classic 160-seat 737 or the downgraded 172-seat Oasis 737 on this route?

F27500 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
F27500 wrote:


Yea .. they'll last for about 45 minutes.


I agree. Maybe they should stick to ACMI.


Great way to shut down fast ... try and become a scheduled airline.


The previous iteration of Dynamic did dabble in some scheduled flying and indeed quickly went bankrupt.
 
alasizon
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:50 pm

OB1504 wrote:
Is AA using the classic 160-seat 737 or the downgraded 172-seat Oasis 737 on this route?


Its scheduled as a regular 738 in the booking engine but the aircraft used thus far have mostly been Oasis planes.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
USAirALB
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:29 pm

zeke wrote:
Is it possible to get an A320 without slide rafts ?

Yes.

On AA for example, all L-AA A321s/A319s have slide rafts. On the L-US side, all PM-US A320s and select A319s have rafts. None of the A320s or A319s that came from the HP merger had rafts, although those A320s ordered after the merger were ordered withs life rafts. None of the PMUS A321s have rafts.

So IIRC, AA has:
-A319 (mostly old HP birds and some old legacy US)--no rafts
-A319 EOW (Old Legacy US, and L-AA)
-A320 (old HP birds)---no rafts
-A320 EOW
-A321S---no rafts (L-US fleet)
-A321B with rafts (L-AA fleet)
-A321H rafts and ETOPS
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ryby92
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
EK216 wrote:

Yes I know about BW523 and I am not saying that BW has not had its own fair share of issues.

But I am sure BW recovered from the fallout of that, considering that accident happened almost a decade ago. And if my memory serves correct, that was not the only incident in which an aircraft overshot GEO's runway which caused a write-off.

To BW's credit, they've never stopped GEO-JFK despite competition, so clearly they must be doing something right.


So you are implying that BW can recover fully from a major accident resulting in loss of aircraft but because it is AA they can't recover from three or four fuel stops? And they have since weight restricted the aircraft to eliminate the tech stop? Help me out here.


Well when bw had these issues in the year past, they had no competition outside of some eastern airlines charter flights. Now there are going to be there airlines. There is less room for mishaps.

Long term, the biggest issue facing both airlines is that b6 is running a321neo here. The cost on that is so much lower than 150 seat b738.


Eventually at some point the MAX will fly again and in so doing there won't be a problem with weight performance. The CASM will also be much lower.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:02 pm

So did anyone show how AA botched this, or is this just more mindless AA bashing on A.Net?
 
gen2stew
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:51 pm

Yet another glaring example of team Tempe exhibiting their gross ineptitude on many levels. Everything from offering an inferior product to not knowing the markets they serve. This is the bunch who came in and was going to show all of the dullards at LAA how its done...
I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:36 am

zeke wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:

Here in the Great White North, following Transport Canada regulations, you dont require a life raft for overwater flights as long as you stay within 400nm from a suitable alternate at all times (basically the equivalent of 60 min diversion time on one engine). Basically an Air Canada A320 flying YYZ-BDA doesn't require life rafts on board. Only life jackets. Heck, most of AC's Caribbean ops dont require life rafts.


Is it possible to get an A320 without slide rafts ?

This 400 mm rule you mentioned is a new one to me. I thought TC was 50 nm over water like the rest of the world.


https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/reg ... l#h-994043

Canadian Air Regulations 602.63 (3)

A person may operate over water a transport category aircraft that is an aeroplane, at up to 400 nautical miles, or the distance that can be covered in 120 minutes of flight at the cruising speed filed in the flight plan or flight itinerary, whichever distance is the lesser, from a suitable emergency landing site without the life rafts referred to in subsection (2) being carried on board.


Beyond 50 nm from shore, you need life preservers on board for each passenger.

602.62 (2)

No person shall operate a land aeroplane, gyroplane, helicopter or airship at more than 50 nautical miles from shore unless a life preserver is carried for each person on board.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
9w748capt
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:30 am

Weren't there security concerns at GEO? From what I can tell, Guyana is still a relatively poor country with a high crime rate. So hopefully things are a bit more stable from that standpoint. I thought I read here that security reasons were one of the reasons DL pulled out?
 
caribny
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:27 pm

GEO is now longer than 7,400. Its now over 10,000. BW runs this flight all the time and the unscheduled stops occur only when there is an inflight emergency (sick passenger) or foggy conditions at GEO. BW is 150 seats.
 
caribny
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:31 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
As if AA needs any more trouble on a VFR route from JFK that will soon see B6 competition...


I don't see the route lasting long once B6 enters. B6 has a plane with a realistic seat count and proper plane that it will use (A21N with 1 ACT, good for about 3200-3300 nmi). B6 also has a better product than AA, which will drive AA off this route. JFK-GEO cannot support 3 carriers.



Guyanese are already talking about B6. I agree one of the 3 will have to go as this route can only support 2 carriers for 8 months of the year. I predict when fares tumble due to B6 AAs nonstop will become seasonal. Rest of the year it will be routed via MIA connections.
 
caribny
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:38 pm

x1234 wrote:
. There's limited stores in GEO, Guyana (similar with Cuba) so people literally bring the whole kitchen sink with them south-bound.



Cubans travel to Guyana to shop so clearly shopping in Georgetown is better than that available in Havana.
 
caribny
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
EK216 wrote:

Well when bw had these issues in the year past, they had no competition outside of some eastern airlines charter flights. Now there are going to be there airlines. There is less room for mishaps.

Long term, the biggest issue facing both airlines is that b6 is running a321neo here. The cost on that is so much lower than 150 seat b738.



When that incident occurred Delta was flying JFK GEO and in fact was the only nonstop service on that route. BW was a one stop service via POS and yet still survived. DL did NOT pull out because of security concerns. They did because they wanted certain incentives from the Guyana gov't which the latter refused to provide. They ranted loudly that BW was getting a fuel subsidy from the gov't of T&T.

They say first impressions matter. Well the first impression was not great and will be a consideration if the choice is between B6 and AA. BW offers one free bag, so will always have their fans.
 
jfk777
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:37 pm

caribny wrote:
x1234 wrote:
. There's limited stores in GEO, Guyana (similar with Cuba) so people literally bring the whole kitchen sink with them south-bound.



Cubans travel to Guyana to shop so clearly shopping in Georgetown is better than that available in Havana.


Saying shopping in Guyana is "better" then Cuba is not saying much since Cuba probably has the worst shopping in the world. Who say" we are going to Cuba to go shopping ?", No one.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:13 am

caribny wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
As if AA needs any more trouble on a VFR route from JFK that will soon see B6 competition...


I don't see the route lasting long once B6 enters. B6 has a plane with a realistic seat count and proper plane that it will use (A21N with 1 ACT, good for about 3200-3300 nmi). B6 also has a better product than AA, which will drive AA off this route. JFK-GEO cannot support 3 carriers.



Guyanese are already talking about B6. I agree one of the 3 will have to go as this route can only support 2 carriers for 8 months of the year. I predict when fares tumble due to B6 AAs nonstop will become seasonal. Rest of the year it will be routed via MIA connections.


I also suspect it's because for years, they had to deal with fly-by-night carriers...such as Vision Airlines and the prior iteration of Eastern 3.0, Dynamic. JetBlue, however, is a well-run operation and they know that any major reason for IRROPS would be related to acts of God (also, the schedule is at a decent time at GEO). Also, B6 is assigning its newest planes to the route (for range reasons).
 
tphuang
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:41 am

Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:25 am

tphuang wrote:
Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?


About 80% of Guyanese Americans live in New York and vicinity.

Image

https://www.indocaribbean.org/blog/popu ... ans-in-nyc
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:40 am

tphuang wrote:
Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?


Are you implying/predicting/wishing that both JFK and MIA will be failures? Obviously there must be some thing left for MIA seeing that the service has been upgraded from 4W to daily and then from A319 to 738. If it was B6 flying from FLL you would not be asking the same question.
 
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chepos
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AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:52 am

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?


Are you implying/predicting/wishing that both JFK and MIA will be failures? Obviously there must be some thing left for MIA seeing that the service has been upgraded from 4W to daily and then from A319 to 738. If it was B6 flying from FLL you would not be asking the same question.


Well he is one of the most vocal B6 fanboys on here, of course anything that is not operated by B6 is on it’s way to fail. But yes, if it was B6 out of FLL it would be printing money or eating someone’s lunch.


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CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1244
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:18 am

I think AA will do just fine. Remember the big change in Guyana is the oil boom. AA is starting not for the VFR but for oil execs and bankers heading down there. AA will price First class super high, and will get that price. So it can keep coach cheap. Jet Blue, will probably fly an all coach plane. So execs will probably chose AA for first and miles. That said, I can see AA suspending JFK-GEO during the low periods an routing people through MIA.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:57 am

Notice the reddest area is adjacent to JFK

This was/is an easy route to start

Unfortunately for AA, they waited til B6 got the aircraft with the ability to fly this route before they jumped in

This is a special VFR route much like Haiti. These are routes that can print/burn money depending on volatility, but persistence and being the only US carrier on the route usually pays off.

AA doesnt have that persistence at JFK. They will be off the route within the year
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
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Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:00 pm

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?


Are you implying/predicting/wishing that both JFK and MIA will be failures? Obviously there must be some thing left for MIA seeing that the service has been upgraded from 4W to daily and then from A319 to 738. If it was B6 flying from FLL you would not be asking the same question.

Actually the other way around. I don't see why b6 would ever launch FLL if NYC has 80% of demand. You see inlike some people here, I actually frequently talk about routes that airlines I like should add and remove and stay away from. And we are abiut to do the start of the year predictions for next year. I actually fly aa more than any other airlines out of nyc in the past few years.

But of course, my predictions of aa in ceetain JFK markets is due to bias rather than yield data or how much aa has already cut.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1244
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:42 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Notice the reddest area is adjacent to JFK

This was/is an easy route to start

Unfortunately for AA, they waited til B6 got the aircraft with the ability to fly this route before they jumped in

This is a special VFR route much like Haiti. These are routes that can print/burn money depending on volatility, but persistence and being the only US carrier on the route usually pays off.

AA doesnt have that persistence at JFK. They will be off the route within the year


Your Hato analogu might have been correct a year ago. Now they discovered oil there so Guyana is a whole new market than before.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?

https://www.guyanatourism.com/wp-conten ... pdf#page18

Here you go. Very detailed statistics from the last full year, 2018. Just over 50% of traffic comes from NYC. The focus of the MIA-GEO flight is to consolidate the growing Texas/Florida arrivals and get what you can out of everywhere else (including NY/NJ). The Texas number especially is expected to increase significantly as the oil industry develops rapidly in GEO.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA botches launch of JFK-GEO

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:05 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?

https://www.guyanatourism.com/wp-conten ... pdf#page18

Here you go. Very detailed statistics from the last full year, 2018. Just over 50% of traffic comes from NYC. The focus of the MIA-GEO flight is to consolidate the growing Texas/Florida arrivals and get what you can out of everywhere else (including NY/NJ). The Texas number especially is expected to increase significantly as the oil industry develops rapidly in GEO.

Right, that's what I was trying to get figure out. How much demand is due to oil and business demand from other part of the country vs vfr traffic before getting attacked.

Certainly sounds like oil demand is going to provide some extra lift here. Maybe even ua can get in on the action from iah.
Last edited by tphuang on Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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