tphuang wrote:ryby92 wrote:tphuang wrote:Realistically speaking, what percentage of demand to GEO from US east coast originates from NYC area? Is it 50%, 60%, 75%? Basically, if there is enough capacity on NYC-GEO to capture 90% demand from NYC/NJ area, what is left for MIA-GEO?
Are you implying/predicting/wishing that both JFK and MIA will be failures? Obviously there must be some thing left for MIA seeing that the service has been upgraded from 4W to daily and then from A319 to 738. If it was B6 flying from FLL you would not be asking the same question.
Actually the other way around. I don't see why b6 would ever launch FLL if NYC has 80% of demand. You see inlike some people here, I actually frequently talk about routes that airlines I like should add and remove and stay away from. And we are abiut to do the start of the year predictions for next year. I actually fly aa more than any other airlines out of nyc in the past few years.
But of course, my predictions of aa in ceetain JFK markets is due to bias rather than yield data or how much aa has already cut.
B6 wouldn’t/shouldn’t launch FLL because it would be a disaster for them. B6 doesn’t offer the connections to Houston/other parts of Florida from FLL that help to make AA’s MIA flight work. So. Fla O&D definitely won’t be enough when there’s AA/PY/BW all competing for that market to one extent or another. It likely wouldn’t be enough even if they weren’t there. B6 has enough trouble with the likes of FLL-BGI/POS which are both bigger to/from So. Fla than GEO is or likely ever will be.