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LotsaRunway
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Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:43 pm

A simple question with a few simple statistics has me wondering if WN needs to think outside the box to grow in New England. I downloaded monthly WN specific domestic passenger data from transtats.bts.gov for BDL, BOS, MHT, PVD and PWM. I considered each airport market individually and collectively as the Boston Area (BOS+MHT+PVD) and New England (BDL+BOS+MHT+PWM+PVD). Now before any flamethrowing starts, I'm not asking if WN should have entered BOS since I believe they had to cover a major city like Boston directly. But after a starting surge, there have only been some fits and starts with growth in an extremely competitive market to show for their efforts. They don't have a front cabin to capitalize on premium fares like it's competitors, but I'll let others discuss yields since I'm not even pretending to be in the know what routes yield well for WN.

My data goes back to October 2002 when WN was already at BDL, MHT and PVD. WN started BOS in 2009 and took over FL's PWM route in 2013.

Percent year-over-year growth:
Year 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
PVD 9.8, 7.9, 6.1, 3.1, -1.4, -5.1, -13.1, -1.0, -6.9, -3.3, -8.3, 2.3, 0.6, 1.6, -3.5
MHT 13.6, 18.7, 3.5, 4.9, 0.3, -11.3, -13.2, 0.0, -12.8, -1.8, -16.2, 0.8, -0.3, -5.2, -9.3
BDL 9.5, 20.8, 5.1, -5.9, -1.3, -5.0, 9.6, 5.8, -0.1, 4.1, 4.4, 6.5, -2.3, 0.02, -3.8
BOS x, x, x, x, x, x, x, 22.8, -15, 24.1, 23.9, 17.6, 16.7, 1.0, -4.4
PWM x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, 1.7, 8.9, 7.9, 2.4
Boston Area 11.5, 12.6, 4.9, 3.9, -0.6, -1.3, 11.5, 5.8, -11, 5.4, 0.9, 8.7, 8.1, 0, -5.1
New England 11.1, 14.5, 4.9, 1.6, -0.7, -2.1, 11.1, 5.8, -9.1, 8.1, 2.8, 7.9, 5.7, 0.2, -4.5

While not fully available, 2019 passenger data looks to be down substantially at all New England WN airports except for PWM, which is up slightly. The 2019 data is likely connected to the Max situation, but Boston Area/New England flattened in 2017 and started down before the Max situation evolved.

Something else of interest is the seasonality of New England stations. PWM is known for it's high seasonality, and virtually all airports see some level of it. Below is the percentage of the low month passengers compared to the high month of that year. For example, the low month for PWM in 2013 was only 37% of the high month. WN swings between 3 and 4 flight per day during the year to account for the seasonality. WN pretty aggressively adjusts its schedule for seasonality at BDL, MHT and PVD, which is interesting because the data suggest that they are the most stable stations in New England through out the year. What really surprised me is that BOS has nearly the same percentage of seasonal swing as PWM for WN and yet is may have the most stable schedule year-round. WN carries about 50 percent of the passengers at Logan during the slowest month as it does on the busiest month, and it was closer to 40% during 2014 and 2015.

year 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
PVD 63.7, 62.4, 71.0, 61.3, 75.3, 68.9, 70.3, 74.7, 75.9, 69.3, 68.9, 68.5, 77.1, 74.3, 69.9
MHT 67.6, 62.5, 71.7, 62.6, 73.0, 68.6, 69.0, 72.2, 69.4, 69.7, 73.0, 64.5, 74.0, 70.1, 73.0
BDL 72.3, 62.8, 74.3, 69.6, 72.5, 69.1, 58.7, 74.8, 77.8, 69.3, 70.4, 75.8, 71.6, 67.0, 71.1
BOS x, x, x, x, x, 51.7, 39.2, 65.4, 72.0, 55.5, 44.3, 42.4, 53.0, 51.7, 51.5
PWM x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, 42.0, 36.6, 40.9, 40.5, 50.9, 50.2
Boston Area 65.9, 62.4, 71.6, 62.8, 75.5, 71.7, 61.5, 71.7, 75.5, 65.2, 58.8, 54.9, 65.1, 62.0, 65.3
New England 67.3, 62.6, 73.2, 64.3, 75.4, 71.8, 61.4, 72.3, 76.9, 63.7, 60.9, 59.3, 69.0, 65.4, 67.9

With DL building up BOS and B6 putting up a firewall, WN seems to be losing out. Does all of New England need to continue shrinking in WN service to maintain balance or is there a way that WN can grow again?
 
737max8
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:05 pm

Easy fix - buy B6.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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RL757PVD
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:23 pm

The issue with New England is that WN can’t be the point to point carrier they are in other places because either the airports don’t really have the capacity or there’s too much overflow competition. They can’t use NYC the way they use LAX and the distances and geography don’t lend itself to multiple one stop options like city pairs such as SAN-ABQ or SAN-RNO. For something like PVD-RDU or CMH, what other options does WN have to route something over besides BWI?

Essentially WN operates at a different airline in the northeast (hub and spoke with BWI and MDW) doubt point to point where they can (Florida ). The old WN model would have 2x PVD-ORF-JAX-XXX and PVD-RDU-BNA/MSY but they would have to bypass so many hub options (PHL IAD EWR DCA CLT ATL) is that don’t exist in other geographies.
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Abeam79
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:42 pm

737max8 wrote:
Easy fix - buy B6.

It took only one post for the typical nonsense of wn buying b6.
Believe it or not they are a bad match, with very different operating platforms. And wn product would cede all the b6 loyal customers to one of the majors, making the northeast unprofitable for them. B6 is pretty clear they will not sell, especially to wn.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:48 pm

I often wondered why WN never attempted regional P2P routes when they launched the original Northeast stations (ISP/ALB/BDL/BUF/PVD/MHT) back in the 1998-2000 period. I know they attempted PVD-ISP but they never tried anything like BUF-ALB or PVD-BUF that might have worked. This contrasts when they launched their Southern/Midwestern stations they usually launched regional P2P routes...SDF-BHM comes to mind. The Northeastern stations were strictly Florida, BWI, MDW, and usually LAS or PHX. I believe they tried MCI and HOU at one point.

I think the closest they got to P2P in the Northeast is when they attempted PHL-MHT/BDL/PVD. It always puzzled me why ALB and BUF did not get PHL service.
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ChrisNH38
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:58 pm

They said they ‘needed’ to be in Boston. But at what cost? They might turn planes quickly there...right into a long conga line of other jets. They’re up against B6 and DL, who have Massport’s ear. WN doesn’t. I don’t see the net gain for them.
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RobertS975
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:10 pm

WN stats at PVD and MHT also mirror the stats for the airports themselves. I live in SE MA and almost exclusively use DL. In the 2002-2007 time frame, I could choose DL B757 service to CVG and ATL, where I was one stop from anywhere. And BOS Logan was a bear to reach because of the Big Dig. The Big Dig project finished, it was far easier to reach Logan with its myriad of flight choices, and I have rarely used PVD since.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:17 pm

Same issue in New England as the Pacific Northwest....strong following and love for the local carrier and WN can't overcome that. AS has driven WN out of most PNW markets and they're pretty much an afterthought.
 
jplatts
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:19 pm

There are a few routes out of PVD and MHT such as PVD-DEN, PVD-BNA, and MHT-DEN that could be re-added by WN.

I had also mentioned that WN was able to fill PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN flights after WN added BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to WN dropping PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service. A post explaining the load factors and # of passengers on PVD-DEN, MHT-DEN, and BOS-DEN on WN back in 2012 when WN was serving DEN nonstop from PVD, MHT, and BOS can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1412681&start=150#p21753097.

I am unsure why WN dropped PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service when WN was likely able to make these two nonstop routes work, even with WN serving DEN nonstop from BOS.

There are also a few routes such as BDL-DAL, BDL-BNA, BDL-PHX, and BDL-SAN that could be added by WN out of BDL, but the Hartford/Springfield area is far enough from ALB, BOS, LGA, and PVD to support additional WN service.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:24 pm

USAirALB wrote:
they never tried anything like BUF-ALB or PVD-BUF that might have worked.


You really need to check the PDEWs on those routes. They couldn't fill four rows.

Lots of New England routes - even a fair number out of BOS - rely on RJs. (PWM, MHT and PVD are not high-traffic airports. Even BDL doesn't crack the top 50 in domestic O&D.) Having no RJs, WN doesn't compete because it can't offer the destination count nor the frequency.
 
jplatts
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:44 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
They said they ‘needed’ to be in Boston. But at what cost? They might turn planes quickly there...right into a long conga line of other jets. They’re up against B6 and DL, who have Massport’s ear. WN doesn’t. I don’t see the net gain for them.


WN needed to serve BOS directly due to both MHT and PVD being located more than 50 miles of BOS. MHT and PVD are both too far from BOS to be a viable alternative for those traveling to the city of Boston and its inner suburbs.

While FLL is further from Downtown Miami than MIA is, FLL is close enough to Downtown Miami to be a viable option for travel to Downtown Miami as FLL is approximately 25 miles from Downtown Miami.

In Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and New York City, WN serves MDW, DAL, HOU, and LGA which are closer to the downtown areas of Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and NYC than ORD, DFW, IAH, and JFK are.

WN also carried more passengers out of BOS than out of ALB, BUF, BDL, MHT, PHL, PIT, PWM, PVD, or ROC in the October 2018 - September 2019 time period.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:55 pm

jplatts wrote:
WN also carried more passengers out of BOS than out of ALB, BUF, BDL, MHT, PHL, PIT, PWM, PVD, or ROC in the October 2018 - September 2019 time period.

Not by much and Boston is a much larger city than any of them except Philly and I think they still run a lot of discounts to fill their planes. WN got beat into submission at PHL by US when they tried to grow there. I really think they thought BOS would be a softer target and grow like a weed, similar to DEN. Bostonians love their B6 and pretty much only defect to WN of the fare is cheap enough. I find it interesting the NK is now seeking opportunities on routes WN serves and is growing in BOS (and elsewhere).
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:58 pm

Sometimes you have to consider how valuable something is to an airline. The traffic in the Northeast Region is less than six airports in the USA.

0.55% AL Alaskan Region. AK.
2.21% CECentral Region. IA, IL (Madison, St Clair, and Monroe counties), KS, MO, NE.
3.21% NE Northeast Region CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT.
9.92% NM Northwest Mountain Region. ...
11.41% SW Southwest Region. ...
12.72% GLGreat Lakes Region. ...
15.75% EA Eastern Region. DC, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WV,
21.01% WP Western-Pacific Region.
23.21% SO Southern Region. ...

5.77% ATL
4.74% LAX
4.43% ORD
3.65% DFW
3.49% DEN
3.40% JFK
3.09% SFO
2.67% SEA
2.64% LAS
2.58% MCO
2.53% EWR
2.48% CLT
2.40% PHX
2.35% IAH
2.34% MIA
2.22% BOS
2.04% MSP
1.96% FLL
1.94% DTW
1.70% PHL
1.67% LGA
1.49% BWI
1.36% SLC
1.35% SAN
1.29% IAD
1.26% DCA
1.19% MDW
 
USAirALB
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:12 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
they never tried anything like BUF-ALB or PVD-BUF that might have worked.


You really need to check the PDEWs on those routes. They couldn't fill four rows.

Lots of New England routes - even a fair number out of BOS - rely on RJs. (PWM, MHT and PVD are not high-traffic airports. Even BDL doesn't crack the top 50 in domestic O&D.) Having no RJs, WN doesn't compete because it can't offer the destination count nor the frequency.

I'm not talking about now.

I'm talking about 20 years ago when they first entered those markets, when they were still flying markets that would never be flown today, like SDF-BHM.

Remember, they did do PVD-ISP at one point.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:54 pm

WNs bread and butter is getting people from A to B nonstop. If they cant do that, then they take people A to B via C. With New England being relatively far from 90% (geographically speaking) from the rest of the country, it is better served through a few spokes. If you look at their NE network now, most of them aren't served more than MDW, BWI, BNA, and MCO where they can hop on any other WN flight and go almost anywhere. You won't see WN fly MNH-PWM or ALB-PVD. They don't focus on tiny markets like those, at least with the current aircraft they have.

Can they find more places in NE to fly to? Of course.
Are they better poised to just connect NE dots to the rest of the system? You best believe it.
Are they going to fly intra-NE anytime soon? No, they know that's a geographically small market where the US3 and B6 with smaller planes and established networks (not to mention trains and proximity that enables driving) will do them in.
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:01 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Sometimes you have to consider how valuable something is to an airline. The traffic in the Northeast Region is less than six airports in the USA.

0.55% AL Alaskan Region. AK.
2.21% CECentral Region. IA, IL (Madison, St Clair, and Monroe counties), KS, MO, NE.
3.21% NE Northeast Region CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT.
9.92% NM Northwest Mountain Region. ...
11.41% SW Southwest Region. ...
12.72% GLGreat Lakes Region. ...
15.75% EA Eastern Region. DC, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WV,
21.01% WP Western-Pacific Region.
23.21% SO Southern Region. ...

5.77% ATL
4.74% LAX
4.43% ORD
3.65% DFW
3.49% DEN
3.40% JFK
3.09% SFO
2.67% SEA
2.64% LAS
2.58% MCO
2.53% EWR
2.48% CLT
2.40% PHX
2.35% IAH
2.34% MIA
2.22% BOS
2.04% MSP
1.96% FLL
1.94% DTW
1.70% PHL
1.67% LGA
1.49% BWI
1.36% SLC
1.35% SAN
1.29% IAD
1.26% DCA
1.19% MDW

I agree with your point about value to the network but I disagree with the breakdown you present. It probably should be O&D numbers somehow weighed for market yield. ATL is a valuable hub, but every airline wants LGA, DCA, BOS, LAX, SFO and ORD.
Also, if WN sees fit to have 6 stations in New England, then it’s valuable to them in some way, especially with over 30 million annual passengers up for grabs.
 
PVD757
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:37 pm

My opinion is that WN swung the pendulum much too far with their BOS strategy. PVD and MHT were large, captive, and loyal WN markets from an origin perspective. They claimed to have entered BOS from a destination standpoint as their other strongholds across the country wanted access to BOS directly. They cut too much from PVD/MHT to fund BOS service. PVD/MHT should have kept or gotten service to places like DEN, BNA, STL, and HOU where there is substantial local demand plus lots of connections. Instead WN did an “either or” approach and gave BOS all these types of options while stripping PVD/MHT down to Florida and BWI/MDW. They could have still given BOS the multiple daily flights while doing once daily in the outlying airports therefore keeping the loyal passengers from being forced to go to BOS for the nonstop service. By doing that, these passengers discovered multiple other airline options and most passengers defected. I’d add LAS and PHX as destination markets that PVD/MHT should have kept also. I clearly remember many people thought WN had left PVD completely when they went to BOS 10 years ago.
 
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spinotter
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:57 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
WNs bread and butter is getting people from A to B nonstop. If they cant do that, then they take people A to B via C. With New England being relatively far from 90% (geographically speaking) from the rest of the country, it is better served through a few spokes. If you look at their NE network now, most of them aren't served more than MDW, BWI, BNA, and MCO where they can hop on any other WN flight and go almost anywhere. You won't see WN fly MNH-PWM or ALB-PVD. They don't focus on tiny markets like those, at least with the current aircraft they have.

Can they find more places in NE to fly to? Of course.
Are they better poised to just connect NE dots to the rest of the system? You best believe it.
Are they going to fly intra-NE anytime soon? No, they know that's a geographically small market where the US3 and B6 with smaller planes and established networks (not to mention trains and proximity that enables driving) will do them in.


In fact, you won't see WN fly many routes at all to MNH (Minneriya airport (MNH), Minneriya, Sri Lanka). Just kidding, we know you meant MHT.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:02 am

737max8 wrote:
Easy fix - buy B6.


Soon as I saw the title of this thread I opened it to post the same thing, so x2.

This is the only way, they are getting nothing in BOS or NYC otherwise. I mean they can fight Allegiant in z list cities I suppose.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:21 am

PVD757 wrote:
They claimed to have entered BOS from a destination standpoint as their other strongholds across the country wanted access to BOS directly. They cut too much from PVD/MHT to fund BOS service. PVD/MHT should have kept or gotten service to places like DEN, BNA, STL, and HOU where there is substantial local demand plus lots of connections. Instead WN did an “either or” approach and gave BOS all these types of options while stripping PVD/MHT down to Florida and BWI/MDW.

Based on current schedules, it seems like PVD, MHT, PWM, BDL (for the most part), and I’ll throw in ISP are almost exclusively north-south and scheduled to stay out of the way of BOS. Then looking at BOS schedules, except for BWI, there isn’t much north-south. BOS is loaded with WN East-west, which seems to have been stripped from the other New England airports. Even MDW service is getting trimmed at PVD/MHT and WN doesn’t even seem to want to try it from PWM. I think they really believe that passengers will come from around the region to support them at BOS instead of choosing a competitor. Maybe they have numbers that show that it’s working, but as my numbers show, there was never any spike in regional passengers when BOS was started, so it appears that for nearly every new passenger attracted with the additional airport, there was one lost.

So where does WN go from here? Stay the course because it’s working well enough or might still work out? Back off because the region isn’t worth the fight? Shift resources around a little? I realize people have their preferences, but what would you do if you were WN?
 
F27500
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:30 am

Not everyone enjoys flying WN.

That idiotic boarding circus (lack of seat assignments) being a big reason. I live in CT and WN is never cheaper than B6 (which is a far superior product) out of BDL or even LGA, so i'd always choose B6 first. Many people I know (friends, family and work) all kinda roll their eyes when they say they're "on Southwest". Really all they have going for them is the lack of a checked bag fee, but that doesn't affect everyone.

Alotta New Englanders just never developed a taste for the WN Kool-Aid. They've always struggled up here. And will. (IMO).
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:46 am

PVD757 wrote:
They claimed to have entered BOS from a destination standpoint as their other strongholds across the country wanted access to BOS directly. They cut too much from PVD/MHT to fund BOS service. PVD/MHT should have kept or gotten service to places like DEN, BNA, STL, and HOU where there is substantial local demand plus lots of connections. Instead WN did an “either or” approach and gave BOS all these types of options while stripping PVD/MHT down to Florida and BWI/MDW.

Based on current schedules, it seems like PVD, MHT, PWM, BDL (for the most part), and I’ll throw in ISP are almost exclusively north-south and scheduled to stay out of the way of BOS. Then looking at BOS schedules, except for BWI, there isn’t much north-south. BOS is loaded with WN East-west, which seems to have been stripped from the other New England airports. Even MDW service is getting trimmed at PVD/MHT and WN doesn’t even seem to want to try it from PWM. I think they really believe that passengers will come from around the region to support them at BOS instead of choosing a competitor. Maybe they have numbers that show that it’s working, but as my numbers show, there was never any spike in regional passengers when BOS was started, so it appears that for nearly every new passenger attracted with the additional airport, there was one lost.

So where does WN go from here? Stay the course because it’s working well enough or might still work out? Back off because the region isn’t worth the fight? Shift resources around a little? I realize people have their preferences, but what would you do if you were WN?
 
flyingchoirboy
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:52 am

I somewhat frequently fly WN on BOS-BWI, and have also used them for BOS-ATL (now cut). I'm a big fan of WN. Being able to check two bags for free is a huge benefit, probably the most generous offered at BOS by any carrier for domestic economy class. They are quick, efficient and cheap enough for what I need, but I appreciate that they aren't for everyone.

Having said that, what was said about WN not having Massport's ear is spot on, and important for their relationship with BOS and MHT. Massport is far more focused on helping DL and B6 grow their BOS hubs, which collectively offer far more destinations and frequencies than WN could ever handle at Logan. I certainly hope that WN keeps at least a small presence at BOS, but they do face a challenge.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:39 am

With the prices B6 charges to/from the NE, WN would never stand a chance having any substantial or successful presence anywhere. I find most WN fares higher than the legacies To just about anywhere minus the occasional promotional 69$ short hop. And for that cattle car boarding process and no seat guarantee I say a BIG EFFF that.
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ChrisNH38
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:09 am

I agree that WN is WAY too North-South from MHT. As a business traveler here in NH, I’ve given up on MHT. Nonstop service that MHT DID HAVE but doesn’t now: BNA, LAS, PHX (among others). We know we have to connect somewhere when heading west out of MHT. I’d much rather fly over all the cold-weather cities and connect at LAS/PHX if I need to go to LAX or SFO. But WN won’t give me those options. Furthermore, since I’m being pushed down to Logan anyway, I don’t even bother dealing with WN. Instead, I fly B6 and DL for the most part. So, in essence, the strategy to funnel people like me to BOS cost them business they would otherwise keep if those westbound flights were at MHT.
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maps4ltd
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:45 am

ChrisNH38 wrote:
They said they ‘needed’ to be in Boston. But at what cost? They might turn planes quickly there...right into a long conga line of other jets. They’re up against B6 and DL, who have Massport’s ear. WN doesn’t. I don’t see the net gain for them.


BOS is the same strategy as NY; they need to be in BOS to maintain relevance for those living in focus cities (eg. STL, MDW, DAL, BNA). These flights aren't designed for Bostonians, they're designed for people to get to Boston.
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RL757PVD
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:39 am

Something to keep in mind as well to further underscore the "tale of two WN's" , when looking at the west coast, WN doesn't fly to as many small markets.

For the entire western US (west of DEN) the only "small" markets are BOI GEG RNO and ABQ.... as opposed to comparable sized markets on the eastern US: PWM MHT PVD BDL ALB ROC BUF ORF RIC JAX GSP CHS PNS

WN operates as a completely different airline in the eastern US vs western US, that coupled with 7-8 hubs in the middle and more constrained airports is what would make it a challenge for them to try.

Also we may end up seeing Moxy do what WN cant.
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GSP psgr
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:15 am

RL757PVD wrote:
Something to keep in mind as well to further underscore the "tale of two WN's" , when looking at the west coast, WN doesn't fly to as many small markets.

For the entire western US (west of DEN) the only "small" markets are BOI GEG RNO and ABQ.... as opposed to comparable sized markets on the eastern US: PWM MHT PVD BDL ALB ROC BUF ORF RIC JAX GSP CHS PNS

WN operates as a completely different airline in the eastern US vs western US, that coupled with 7-8 hubs in the middle and more constrained airports is what would make it a challenge for them to try.

Also we may end up seeing Moxy do what WN cant.


I'd also add TUS, ELP (west of DEN), and SLC (SLC is smaller than ORF and JAX) to that list. Not to mention that the likes of ONT, LGB, SJC, etc are similar to the PVDs, MHTs, PBIs, and MKEs of the East of the Mississippi markets.
 
caflyboy
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:54 am

It just seems that when a new geography that is important comes into focus for wn they buy into it. Their internal growth model worked, but then they bought carriers to move into the geography. Muse/Morris/ATA/Airtran/ and the attempt at Frontier. Of course, the other strategies were to move into fallen hubs (STL/BNA/RDU/PIT). New England and the Northeast is the last geography. Of course, B6 or who else can they buy to get in? What failed hubs can they overtake?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:11 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Also we may end up seeing Moxy do what WN cant.

By adapting dynamic software, Moxy just might become what WN was, but isn't anymore.

Due to high costs, WN had to go for high yield. That means daily+ service and larger markets. I believe Allegiant has taken much of the old WN's growth. Moxie is a high end Allegiant.

The other two airlines are the already mentioned B6 and NK. Very different airlines that grew.

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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:43 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
They said they ‘needed’ to be in Boston. But at what cost? They might turn planes quickly there...right into a long conga line of other jets. They’re up against B6 and DL, who have Massport’s ear. WN doesn’t. I don’t see the net gain for them.


To satisfy their business passengers. Saying we service Boston via an airport in New Hampshire is not going to cut it. Boston is one of the largest business markets in the country, not serving it directly hurt them in this regard.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:36 pm

What’s interesting is that WN recently cut ATL-BOS. ATL-BOS is a serious business market, but with B6 in the picture as well as multiple dailies on DL, I understand why they cut it. But it’s still not a good sign for their operation in ATL. The MAXs can’t come back online soon enough.
 
WN732
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:56 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
What’s interesting is that WN recently cut ATL-BOS. ATL-BOS is a serious business market, but with B6 in the picture as well as multiple dailies on DL, I understand why they cut it. But it’s still not a good sign for their operation in ATL. The MAXs can’t come back online soon enough.


They just upped a whole bunch of stuff in ATL with the schedule change. ATL is fine.
 
tphuang
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:58 pm

WN doesn't need to be strong everywhere. Their business model just doesn't work well in the Northeast. No shame really.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
WN doesn't need to be strong everywhere. Their business model just doesn't work well in the Northeast. No shame really.

Can I qualify your statement? Their current business model doesn’t work well in the Northeast. It used to and they grew great guns. And then things changed. And if they are OK with cutting back and focusing on other areas, it’s certainly their right. What’s interesting here is that they were dominant in several nearby medium markets and are sacrificing that to feed their survival in a place where they are considered third rate by many.

I think they can do better in New England perhaps by providing BOS with enough direct connections to major WN business markets to keep their FFs happy and allowing other regional airports where they are still dominant to have a little more west bound connectability without always being redirected to support extra frequencies at BOS. I think it’s more of a local strategy change than a business model change.
 
jplatts
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:04 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
What’s interesting is that WN recently cut ATL-BOS. ATL-BOS is a serious business market, but with B6 in the picture as well as multiple dailies on DL, I understand why they cut it. But it’s still not a good sign for their operation in ATL. The MAXs can’t come back online soon enough.


WN already has multiple 1-stop connecting options to ATL, FLL, RSW, MSY, MCO, JAX, TPA, and PBI from BOS through BWI. In addition, WN will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to GSP from BOS through BWI with WN having recently re-added BWI-GSP nonstop service.

I can understand WN dropping ATL-BOS nonstop service with WN being able to offer 1-stop connecting service to ATL and most of the other WN stations in the Southeast from BOS through BWI. In addition to WN being able to still connect passengers from BOS to most of WN's stations in the Southeast through BWI, DL has hubs at both BOS and ATL, and B6 and NK also serve BOS nonstop from ATL in addition to DL.

WN also dropped ATL-DTW and ATL-MSP nonstop service back in June 2019, but both of these routes (a) are between airports that are major hubs for DL and (b) still have nonstop service on NK in addition to DL.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:59 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
I agree with your point about value to the network but I disagree with the breakdown you present. It probably should be O&D numbers somehow weighed for market yield.


3.21% of boardings in the country are in the FAA designated NE Northeast Region: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT. A total of 97% of those boardings are at these 6 airports.

MA BOS Boston (69.3% of NE)
CT BDL Windsor Locks
RI PVD Warwick
ME PWM Portland
NH MHT Manchester
VT BTV Burlington
I agree with you about market yield, but I have no way of producing that database

LotsaRunway wrote:
Also, if WN sees fit to have 6 stations in New England, then it’s valuable to them in some way, especially with over 30 million annual passengers up for grabs.

I have Southwest with 5 airports in NE since they don't serve BTV
If all 5 of those airports were a single airport it would still rank #16 in terms of Southwest airports by number of seats.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:40 pm

jplatts wrote:
usdcaguy wrote:
What’s interesting is that WN recently cut ATL-BOS. ATL-BOS is a serious business market, but with B6 in the picture as well as multiple dailies on DL, I understand why they cut it. But it’s still not a good sign for their operation in ATL. The MAXs can’t come back online soon enough.


WN already has multiple 1-stop connecting options to ATL, FLL, RSW, MSY, MCO, JAX, TPA, and PBI from BOS through BWI. In addition, WN will still be able to offer 1-stop connections to GSP from BOS through BWI with WN having recently re-added BWI-GSP nonstop service.

I can understand WN dropping ATL-BOS nonstop service with WN being able to offer 1-stop connecting service to ATL and most of the other WN stations in the Southeast from BOS through BWI. In addition to WN being able to still connect passengers from BOS to most of WN's stations in the Southeast through BWI, DL has hubs at both BOS and ATL, and B6 and NK also serve BOS nonstop from ATL in addition to DL.


With ATL-BOS being nonstop on other carriers, WN won’t be getting that business anymore except from WN diehards. Hopefully, we’ll see them offer it again once the market conditions change. Meanwhile, there are no nonstops between MHT or PVD and ATL. Just seems that WN has some opportunities to route some of its New England flying via ATL in lieu of always using BWI or MDW. That would fit better with its business model of offering more destinations from any given city in lieu of greater frequency.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:27 am

LotsaRunway wrote:
Stay the course because it’s working well enough or might still work out? Back off because the region isn’t worth the fight? Shift resources around a little? I realize people have their preferences, but what would you do if you were WN?


BOS ranked #31 for Southwest Airlines for a recent month, and all New England airports lumped together would theoretically only rank #16.

It's relatively small potatoes compared to their potential growth in international markets and in PR.

When I was young to get to SJU you always flew American. I am surprised to see JetBlue so far ahead today. I would think that the Caribbean would have much more potential for WN and less costs than the New England states.

100.0% JetBlue Airways
40.3% American Airlines Inc.
28.1% Southwest Airlines Co.
24.5% Spirit Air Lines
21.7% Delta Air Lines Inc.
13.3% United Air Lines Inc.
12.8% Frontier Airlines Inc.
1.0% Allegiant Air
0.5% Sun Country Airlines d/b/a MN Airlines
 
TUSDawg23
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:44 am

Here is my theory. Other than MA, population growth in New England over the last decade has been pretty stagnant. BOS and BDL are the only two airports in the New England region than can support year round service to anything west of the Mississippi which is where WN has a lot of their strongest markets. If airports like PWM, BTV, MHT, and PVD have shown time and again they can't support year round flights on a 737 to markets west of the Mississippi, it limits WN's desire to want to grow those secondary New England markets. There is a reason WN scrapped flights like PHX-MHT/PVD for example and it's because those 737s can be better used in the system for other flights to larger and growing markets with higher demand.
 
jplatts
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:20 am

usdcaguy wrote:
With ATL-BOS being nonstop on other carriers, WN won’t be getting that business anymore except from WN diehards. Hopefully, we’ll see them offer it again once the market conditions change. Meanwhile, there are no nonstops between MHT or PVD and ATL. Just seems that WN has some opportunities to route some of its New England flying via ATL in lieu of always using BWI or MDW. That would fit better with its business model of offering more destinations from any given city in lieu of greater frequency.


The main reason why WN served ATL nonstop from BOS was due to WN inheriting the ATL-BOS nonstop route through the WN-FL merger, whereas FL didn't serve MHT or PVD. There is also less need for WN to serve ATL nonstop from its New England destinations with WN having recently resumed BWI-GSP nonstop service and with WN being able to offer 1-stop connections to most of its Southeastern stations from its New England destinations through BWI.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:17 am

WN should refocus on MHT, PVD and actively encourage people along 128 to use those two airports.
Perhaps run adds where you see people stuck for eternity in the two Boston tunnels along with a million Lyft/Uber drivers, while on the other hands you see people whizzing to MHT, PVD instead with a smile on their face.
 
tomaheath
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:27 am

TUSDawg23 wrote:
Here is my theory. Other than MA, population growth in New England over the last decade has been pretty stagnant. BOS and BDL are the only two airports in the New England region than can support year round service to anything west of the Mississippi which is where WN has a lot of their strongest markets. If airports like PWM, BTV, MHT, and PVD have shown time and again they can't support year round flights on a 737 to markets west of the Mississippi, it limits WN's desire to want to grow those secondary New England markets. There is a reason WN scrapped flights like PHX-MHT/PVD for example and it's because those 737s can be better used in the system for other flights to larger and growing markets with higher demand.

Someone recently posted either in the WN or New England thread the loads on the DEN flights from BOS PVD and MHT if I remember correctly PVD and MHT were both higher than BOS with that said not sure how the yields were on the PVD and MHT flights. I always heard that the MHT-LAS flights had good loads was this true? And again not sure how the yields were on such a long flight. I’d guess there a fair amount of people willing to pay more to fly a nonstop from PVD or MHT than to “deal” with BOS just like there’s many people that will go to BOS to save some money.
 
jplatts
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:47 pm

tomaheath wrote:
Someone recently posted either in the WN or New England thread the loads on the DEN flights from BOS PVD and MHT if I remember correctly PVD and MHT were both higher than BOS with that said not sure how the yields were on the PVD and MHT flights. I always heard that the MHT-LAS flights had good loads was this true? And again not sure how the yields were on such a long flight. I’d guess there a fair amount of people willing to pay more to fly a nonstop from PVD or MHT than to “deal” with BOS just like there’s many people that will go to BOS to save some money.


I agree that WN re-adding PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service might happen since (a) WN plans on significantly expanding its DEN operation, (b) WN was able to fill PVD-DEN, MHT-DEN, and BOS-DEN nonstop flights subsequent to WN adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to WN dropping PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service, (c) WN still serves both BWI and MDW nonstop from PVD and MHT, and (d) WN had added PVD-DCA nonstop service three years ago.
 
tomaheath
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:07 pm

jplatts wrote:
tomaheath wrote:
Someone recently posted either in the WN or New England thread the loads on the DEN flights from BOS PVD and MHT if I remember correctly PVD and MHT were both higher than BOS with that said not sure how the yields were on the PVD and MHT flights. I always heard that the MHT-LAS flights had good loads was this true? And again not sure how the yields were on such a long flight. I’d guess there a fair amount of people willing to pay more to fly a nonstop from PVD or MHT than to “deal” with BOS just like there’s many people that will go to BOS to save some money.


I agree that WN re-adding PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service might happen since (a) WN plans on significantly expanding its DEN operation, (b) WN was able to fill PVD-DEN, MHT-DEN, and BOS-DEN nonstop flights subsequent to WN adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to WN dropping PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service, (c) WN still serves both BWI and MDW nonstop from PVD and MHT, and (d) WN had added PVD-DCA nonstop service three years ago.

Do you still have those DEN numbers handy from BOS PVD and MHT? I believe your the one that had posted the numbers I had saw.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:11 pm

Until such time that being in BOS is more pain than gain for them, I can’t see WN ‘building back’ their regional stations. Returning the MAX to service will obviously increase fleet elasticity. But a lot of the financial data that defines the relative/comparative success of a station in closely-held. At the time WN entered Boston, they didn’t know the eventual aspirations of both B6 and DL. They sure do now, though. If they want to play a ‘long game’ at BOS, more power to them.
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PVD757
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:37 pm

Year end 2013 was the last full year all 3 (BOS, PVD, MHT) had WN nonstop service to DEN. The total average for the entire year was:

MHT: 93%
BOS: 92%
PVD: 90%

Year end 2012, last full year of WN nonstop service:

PVD-LAS 93%

Year end 2011:

MHT-LAS 90%
PVD-LAS 93%

MHT-PHX 93%
BOS-PHX 93%
PVD-PHX 92%

The numbers show that the outlying BOS region airports supported WN nonstop service and the three coexisted together in the the above markets.
 
aden23
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:11 pm

I was always surprised WN never capitalized on ferrying skiers from 2nd-tier New England cities to DEN for winter vacations.

The Rocky Mountain region saw 24 million skier visits in 2018, so these are big numbers. New Englanders love skiing, and being able to check your own equipment on WN for free...seems like a great opportunity for them.
 
Blueballs
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:28 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
Easy fix - buy B6.

It took only one post for the typical nonsense of wn buying b6.
Believe it or not they are a bad match, with very different operating platforms. And wn product would cede all the b6 loyal customers to one of the majors, making the northeast unprofitable for them. B6 is pretty clear they will not sell, especially to wn.


Sure seems like a lot of the front line folks would love a merger with just about anyone. This current management team has lost the faith and goodwill of the masses. This happens when you treat humans like cost units.....come on wn or dl or literally just about anyone!!!!
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: Does WN Need New Strategy for New England?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:58 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
A simple question with a few simple statistics has me wondering if WN needs to think outside the box to grow in New England.


Yeah, fly to SYR.

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