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Coronado990
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:37 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
First, my condolences to the family and friends of those who perished. May the dead rest in peace.

Arion640 wrote:
N62NA wrote:

Think folks. It's the same exact flight that he flew on a few months ago. And that flight just ended in a crash..


I would find that a bit scary too.


Why is that a scary thing? How many times have you passed through an intersection where a serious - or even fatal - auto accident has occurred? Is that scary, too?


Actually, yes. that does scare the hell out me.
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Rossiya747
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:46 pm

I think I have a weird travel correlation with bad things.

I went to Hurghada a few weeks before a terror attack.
I went to Karnak Temple a few months after a terror attack
I was in Brussels airport a few weeks before the bombing
I took off from Almaty Airport a few months ago
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bennett123
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:00 pm

What are your future travel plans?.
 
scramjetter
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:10 pm

From an article I read on CNN.com, a passenger described hearing a "terrifying sound" before crashing. Two survivors reported that the airplane did not fall straight down but tilted, shortly after takeoff. Here is the link to the article:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/26/asia/kazakhstan-plane-crash-intl-hnk/index.html

Who knows what the sound may have been. Maybe the dreaded V1 cut and stall? My condolences to the deceased and speedy recovery to those affected.
 
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longhauler
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:30 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
Sound similar to the [insert aircraft name] that crashed in [insert country] from icing years ago.


Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.
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F9Animal
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:38 pm

I was reading past articles and posts about the F-28 being able to takeoff with zero flaps? Is this possible in a heavy loaded plane, in Sub zero temps, and a little ice buildup? First thought was no flaps settings like the MD-80.

Any news on the condition of the pilots?
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oldannyboy
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:39 pm

longhauler wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Sound similar to the [insert aircraft name] that crashed in [insert country] from icing years ago.


Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.


Absolutely true that the F28/100 hard wing is unforgiving, but it's not as if other aircraft types have not had similar accidents due to airfoil contamination..... The flight profile and the description of the accident profile matches almost exactly that of any aircraft that's failed to get airborne for above mentioned reasons....
Large numbers of F28s have operated for many years in the very cold, very snowy environment of Scandinavia (Braathens and Linjeflyg immediately spring to mind) without any particular issue....
 
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TWA302
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:29 pm

From AVHerald : http://avherald.com/h?article=4d127dc6&opt=0

"Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister reported preliminary results by the investigation commission suggests the aircraft struck its tail onto the runway surface twice with a distance of 300-400 meters in between. At the end of the runway the aircraft turned sharply right, the landing gear was retracted at this point already."

Sounds similar to the CO 1404 at DEN in 2008, but without retracted landing gear.
 
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:45 pm

longhauler wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Sound similar to the [insert aircraft name] that crashed in [insert country] from icing years ago.


Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.


The avherald seem to be indicating no de-icing prior to takeoff, yet describe weather conditions ripe for frost/icing.

This does have at first glance a resemblance to the F28 at Dryden.
 
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:12 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
longhauler wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Sound similar to the [insert aircraft name] that crashed in [insert country] from icing years ago.


Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.


The avherald seem to be indicating no de-icing prior to takeoff, yet describe weather conditions ripe for frost/icing.

This does have at first glance a resemblance to the F28 at Dryden.

And US Air 405 in LGA too. Those were pretty similar to one another. There was also that Air Crash Investigation episode related to those crashes.
 
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:31 pm

reltney wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Damn. I flew Z9 2100 in August. That is scary.


Why?



I have to ask also.........why is that scary?


Why do you think ? He is simply stating that he flew that same flight #, on the same route, on the same airline ... not that long ago ..... so scary thought .... it might have been him on a different day .
What is so hard to comprehend about that ?
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alan3
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:32 pm

Just curious in a case like this, if the company who manufactured the plane doesn't exist anymore who would investigators coordinate with?
 
aircatalonia
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:47 pm

Anything related to control surface would have resulted in more damage. This looks like some sort of controlled crash landing. Loss of power maybe?
 
a300
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:03 pm

axio wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
Current weather showing mist and visibility of 1000m. Temperature -11C.

First flight of the morning - ice perhaps?


That was my first thought as well. Not sure if the aircraft was de-iced. The photos from the crash scene shows a light amount of snow on the ground. The failure to de-ice was the cause of the Iran Air F100 departure crash on 2 January 2008.

https://aviation-safety.net/database/re ... 20080102-1

The Air Ontario F-28 crash on 10 March 1989 is another example of icing on take off.

https://aviation-safety.net/database/re ... 19890310-1

The trend has been very clear for the F-28 series, including the F100: If the crash is on take off, it is often the result of the type being very prone to icing-induced stall.

On the other hand, if the the mishap were on landing, it almost always has been due to a landing gear issue.

Of course, we must await the formal investigation to be certain of the cause(s).
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petertenthije
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:11 pm

alan3 wrote:
Just curious in a case like this, if the company who manufactured the plane doesn't exist anymore who would investigators coordinate with?
I would imagine the owner of the Fokker 100 type certificate. That would be Fokker Services, part of the GKN Aerospace group.
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:37 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
I think I have a weird travel correlation with bad things.

I went to Hurghada a few weeks before a terror attack.
I went to Karnak Temple a few months after a terror attack
I was in Brussels airport a few weeks before the bombing
I took off from Almaty Airport a few months ago


I was on Westminster Bridge during the 14th August 2018 vehicle ramming attack, I was about 100m away from the incident, it does give you a new perspective on life. I was also on a Mt Ruapehu when it erupted in 2006, that was impressive.
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:42 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
longhauler wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Sound similar to the [insert aircraft name] that crashed in [insert country] from icing years ago.


Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.


The avherald seem to be indicating no de-icing prior to takeoff, yet describe weather conditions ripe for frost/icing.

This does have at first glance a resemblance to the F28 at Dryden.


Agreed at first glance icing is suspected. However, the report of no de-icing doesn’t mean much since it’s not official. There are valid reasons why a plane may not deice even if all others to pay the casual observer apparently are.
 
bluefrog
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:50 pm

timpdx wrote:
N62NA wrote:
reltney wrote:


I have to ask also.........why is that scary?


Think folks. It's the same exact flight that he flew on a few months ago. And that flight just ended in a crash..


I totally understand the poster being a bit spooked.

And I nearly asked to be booked on the the Air Bagan F100 that crash landed on a road in Dec. 2012. You could not book direct with any Myanmar airline at that time, and I initially wanted to fly on Xmas day and could very well have been on that plane. I cut down on my ambitions to see 5 cities in 11 days, fortunately and cut that segment. But it’s certainly spooky to have almost flown an obscure airline that crashes. Fortunately only 1 person on the ground died in that particular incident, but there were some injuries on the plane. Visit to a Burmese hospital? Um, hard pass.

Hoping for the best in this incident.

know what you mean mate ,my best mates dad was due to fly back on a varig B707 via paris i think it was? back in the 70's he was overlooking work being done in brazil ,it took a little longer than should of so had to miss the flight i think nearly all were killed ,he celebrated him 90th birthday a month ago ,wasn't his time to go i guess
 
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A333MSPtoAMS
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:51 pm

timpdx wrote:
N62NA wrote:
reltney wrote:


I have to ask also.........why is that scary?


Think folks. It's the same exact flight that he flew on a few months ago. And that flight just ended in a crash..


I totally understand the poster being a bit spooked.

And I nearly asked to be booked on the the Air Bagan F100 that crash landed on a road in Dec. 2012. You could not book direct with any Myanmar airline at that time, and I initially wanted to fly on Xmas day and could very well have been on that plane. I cut down on my ambitions to see 5 cities in 11 days, fortunately and cut that segment. But it’s certainly spooky to have almost flown an obscure airline that crashes. Fortunately only 1 person on the ground died in that particular incident, but there were some injuries on the plane. Visit to a Burmese hospital? Um, hard pass.

Hoping for the best in this incident.


As someone who has had to visit a Burmese hospital, in 2013, I can tell you they're actually just as sophisticated as many other Southeast Asian countries and better care than most western hospitals. I would have no problems going to another one, should the occasion arise
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Aesma
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:54 pm

The speed decreases before the altitude starts to rise, is that just because the data is approximate, or an indication of engine trouble (ice ingestion ?) ?
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aerorobnz
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:05 pm

I am going to thank the surviving passenger's lucky stars and wait for the official report.
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mxaxai
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:17 pm

F9Animal wrote:
Any news on the condition of the pilots?

Avherald / the Kazakh deputy prime minister reports that the captain was killed, the FO is in a hospital with serious injuries.

It's an odd accident with a number of fatalities and seriously injured, but also a large number of virtually unharmed passengers. I think there were a couple of factors that greatly improved the chances of surviving for many:

- didn't gain much altitude, if any; very little vertical imact velocity
- still fully controlled flight
- The tail reportedly struck the runway twice; first time probably when the aircraft didn't gain altitude during rotation, second time when the jet came back down. This would absorb impact energy.
- no major obstacles, also the fuselage remained intact (until the house)
- no fire
- the house was relatively soft and absorbed much of the impact energy
- the front port side of the fuselage acted as a cushion for the rear fuselage. Unfortunate for those sitting there (captain) but beneficial for many others
- it seems as if the plane didn't hit the house head on, but was sliding slightly sideways instead.
- rapid response of emergency teams, preventing deaths from hypothermia

I've compared the satellite photos with the accident photos and I believe that the Avherald's position is slightly off. Instead, I propose the following position:
Image
Image
So the jet slid across the snow. Then the right wing got caught in the airport perimeter wall and the jet started spinning. The left cockpit impacted the house's corner first. Then the forward left fuselage was "wrapped" around the house, so that the fuselage ended up pointing opposite to the direction of take off. During this spin, the tail cone was ripped off. Did I get something wrong?
 
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:42 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
First, my condolences to the family and friends of those who perished. May the dead rest in peace.

Arion640 wrote:
N62NA wrote:

Think folks. It's the same exact flight that he flew on a few months ago. And that flight just ended in a crash..


I would find that a bit scary too.


Why is that a scary thing? How many times have you passed through an intersection where a serious - or even fatal - auto accident has occurred? Is that scary, too?


If someone finds something scary or not it is their opinion, a personal feeling, and debating whether they should or shouldn't feel scared (or happy, or sad, or intrigued) adds nothing more to the discussion at hand than adding a bunch of holier than though posts. So maybe you (and others) find no reason to be scared, but he did. So move along.
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EstherLouise
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:06 am

Ice. Survivors reportedly evacuated via wing and most slipped and fell due to ice on the wing surface.
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oldannyboy
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:55 am

Dominion301 wrote:
longhauler wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Sound similar to the [insert aircraft name] that crashed in [insert country] from icing years ago.


Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.


The avherald seem to be indicating no de-icing prior to takeoff, yet describe weather conditions ripe for frost/icing.

This does have at first glance a resemblance to the F28 at Dryden.


OMG guys, yes Dryden, I understand that you're perhaps from Canada, and that the Dryden accident might have resonated a bit there, but please, any aircraft in icing conditions, unless it gets its wings de-iced will develop exactly the very same problem. There's no necessary correlation between icing issues and the Fokkers. Any aircraft unless properly de-iced and sprayed will most likely suffer a stall on take off if its wings are contaminated.....
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:59 am

N292UX wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
longhauler wrote:

Yes, from the description from the passengers and the flight profile followed, it appears the achilles heel of the F28, namely ground icing, has appeared again.

As we all know, a hard wing is very susceptable to any wing contamination. I have not read if they de-iced before take-off, as conditions were certainly prime for it. In Canada, the F28 also had issues with any bugs on the leading edge .... it is a very unforgiving wing.


The avherald seem to be indicating no de-icing prior to takeoff, yet describe weather conditions ripe for frost/icing.

This does have at first glance a resemblance to the F28 at Dryden.


And US Air 405 in LGA too. Those were pretty similar to one another. There was also that Air Crash Investigation episode related to those crashes.


OMG guys, yes Dryden, I understand that you're perhaps from Canada, and that the Dryden accident might have resonated a bit there, but please, any aircraft in icing conditions, unless it gets its wings de-iced will develop exactly the very same problem. There's no necessary correlation between icing issues and the Fokkers. Any aircraft unless properly de-iced and sprayed will most likely suffer a stall on take off if its wings are contaminated.....
Same goes for the LGA US air accident.
The poor Fokker that day had sat under snowy and icy conditions for like 45 freakin' minutes!!!! no surprise the wing was contaminated by the time the Fellowship initiated the take off run....
All wing-contamination incidents are pretty similar!!!!
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:04 am

a300 wrote:
axio wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
Current weather showing mist and visibility of 1000m. Temperature -11C.

First flight of the morning - ice perhaps?


That was my first thought as well. Not sure if the aircraft was de-iced. The photos from the crash scene shows a light amount of snow on the ground. The failure to de-ice was the cause of the Iran Air F100 departure crash on 2 January 2008.

https://aviation-safety.net/database/re ... 20080102-1

The Air Ontario F-28 crash on 10 March 1989 is another example of icing on take off.

https://aviation-safety.net/database/re ... 19890310-1

The trend has been very clear for the F-28 series, including the F100: If the crash is on take off, it is often the result of the type being very prone to icing-induced stall.

On the other hand, if the the mishap were on landing, it almost always has been due to a landing gear issue.

Of course, we must await the formal investigation to be certain of the cause(s).


Yeah. there's a grand total of TWO (2) F-28 accidents related to icing. And in both instances the wings had either NOT BEEN DE-ICED at all (Dryden) or poorly de-iced and then sat under snow and ice for over 30 mins. C'mon. Cut the Fokker some slack guys.
Or else do come up with FIGURES.
Same for the F-100. Yes, unless PROPERLY DE-ICED the hard wing might stall. Wow. Big surprise.
Your words: "The failure to de-ice was the cause of the Iran Air F100 departure crash on 2 January 2008." So, unrelated to the F-100 itself. Same would go for a 737 that is not de-iced.
Kindly show me where "The trend has been very clear for the F-28 series, including the F100"

Guys, let's stick to the facts and not play armchair investigators. The Fokkers have been flying for DECADES safely throughout the world. If said aircraft is PROPERLY flown, maintained and de-iced there is absolutely no evidence to prove that it would be less safe than an MD-80 or a 737.
Facts guys, please!
 
FlyHossD
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:13 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
First, my condolences to the family and friends of those who perished. May the dead rest in peace.

Arion640 wrote:

I would find that a bit scary too.


Why is that a scary thing? How many times have you passed through an intersection where a serious - or even fatal - auto accident has occurred? Is that scary, too?


If someone finds something scary or not it is their opinion, a personal feeling, and debating whether they should or shouldn't feel scared (or happy, or sad, or intrigued) adds nothing more to the discussion at hand than adding a bunch of holier than though posts. So maybe you (and others) find no reason to be scared, but he did. So move along.


Yes, of course, that's someone's opinion. But it also suggests to me that such a person lives in anxiety that isn't necessary, prudent or reasonable. Further, that person probably isn't aware of all the accidents that have occurred around them. What about that huge railroad derailment near them in 1968 (just a hypothetical example)? Where do you draw the line? At a week ago, a month ago, a year ago, a decade ago? Or just keep your head buried in the sand?

In any case, IMHO, this appears to be a icing related accident much like other "hard wing" accidents in the past - F-28s and DC-9-10 series included. RIP to those souls that perished.

TWA302 wrote:
Sounds similar to the CO 1404 at DEN in 2008, but without retracted landing gear.


Other than being a take off accident, I don't see the similarity. The CO accident in DEN was due to a huge crosswind gust and not in icing conditions. The NTSB blamed the captain's handling (mishandling) for the accident:

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Pages/ ... 404_B.aspx
Last edited by FlyHossD on Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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a300
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:16 pm

Don't understand the hostility. I certainly did not imply that the Fokker F28 series are inherently unsafe. To the contrary, I have flown on them many times and have not stopped yet. Also, I did say that we will know for certain the cause (s) only when the

The accident investigation reports regarding the F28/F70/F100 icing crashes have pointed out the series' particular susceptibility to wing ice-induced stall (Air Ontario, US Air, Palair Macedonian, Austrain, Regional, Iran Air, etc.) The denominator is not the total air crashes, but rather those specifically for the type. Of the 16 haul losses for F100 specifically (not counting Bek), three were due to icing, and 6 were due to landing gear hydraulic issues. Those are clear trends.

The other type well-known for its susceptibility to wing icing is the ATR. There in fact is supposed to be specific training on that for the pilots (see the EP-ATS crash report). Again, a fine plane overall.

Yes, any aircraft that is not properly operated can crash. Some are less forgiving in certain area than others.
Boland Aseman Jayegah Man Ast.
 
CaptainAce
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:14 am

If it is for a fact ice, then this accident can certainly resemble Palair Macedonian Airlines Flight 301, a Fokker 100 that crashed during takeoff at Skopje due to ice in 1993.
 
spacecadet
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:13 am

CaptainAce wrote:
If it is for a fact ice, then this accident can certainly resemble Palair Macedonian Airlines Flight 301, a Fokker 100 that crashed during takeoff at Skopje due to ice in 1993.


If it is icing, then it really resembles basically every icing crash ever. They are all due to the same thing, regardless of the make or model. There have been many of them. It's been one of the industry's big danger areas for 100 years, and despite all we know now, it still catches flight and ground crews every now and then.
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Stickpusher
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:49 am

Aesma wrote:
The speed decreases before the altitude starts to rise, is that just because the data is approximate, or an indication of engine trouble (ice ingestion ?) ?


Coupled with the information that there may have been 2 tailstrikes on the takeoff run, it suggests that the crew were just not getting the lift they needed and were running out of runway, but not wanting to overrun if they could "get away with it" and depart without incident.

The graphed speeds suggest that it should have been able to fly (150+kt at one point). The airport is fairly elevated, 2234 ft, but if there was icing conditions then the penalty of that elevation is mitigated due to denser air, but they'd still have needed extra speed even so (I don't have any numbers).

The drop in speed could be due to several factors, engine-related, or perhaps just position error on the pitots if the aircraft slewed enough - or if it was just back in contact with the ground and/or slewing, in which case the drop would look catastrophic.

The two tailstrikes - or at least a nose-high attitude enough to cause one - may have bled off some speed and a last-ditch attempt to get airborne (maybe the second tailstrike) was enough to stall the aircraft, starboard wing first, making it settle back onto the ground soon after getting briefly airborne. The drag of starboard wing contact sets up a ground-loop and around it goes into the building. If there's a small berm or wall at the airfield boundary that would also factor in to the aircraft's final position.

The initial word on the engine conditions will be material ingested, I would think, at least, pending any data from the recorders.

A decrease in speed before a registered climb might just be the nature of the data, if speed is registered far more accurately or quickly than altitude changes. A lot happened in a very short time, which I think could exaggerate any differences in how the data is gathered. Certainly in all the aircraft I have flown (light GA), the altimeter was always a lot less responsive than the VSI, it lagged, so altitude data might be less trustworthy except in a general sense.

So in answer I think the altitude data is more approximate than the speed data, and the possibility of engine problems can't be ruled out as a factor in the aircraft struggling to get airborne and tailstriking twice. The fact that it notionally makes flying speed and doesn't get airborne might be a field elevation factor, or icing, or both.

If field elevation shouldn't be a problem, it may be that icing made it one. Factors lining up. Maybe I'm overthinking it.

Your mention of "ice ingestion" is interesting, since if the wings were iced up, I can't help wondering whether lift at rotation would be enough to pull ice off the upper surface and into the intakes (more likely if ice is in small patches and fairly inboard). It probably wouldn't be enough to damage the engines, but may factor in as a brief loss of engine power? Perhaps it depends on what kind of ice was there, rime ice or sheet, and that would depend on the night conditions, clear or precip, I would guess.

+++

A propos of another conversation going on here... I tend never to fret about "it could have been me". The reason being that we never hear all the news about everywhere we travel. If we did, we'd never get out from under the duvet. I joke with my wife sometimes about how we'd never have met if I'd been on the 14th Street Bridge in DC 18 months after I'd last been there. Everywhere we go, even just down the road to buy something, we're "running the numbers" of probability whether we like it or not. We can either nurse a neurosis about it or just get on with life and accept that fate will do what it does, without favouritism or malice. I'm reminded of Samantha Smith, the girl that tried to bring a rapprochement between the USA and the USSR decades ago, scared as she was of nuclear conflict. As a result of her outspoken stance she gained a measure of celebrity, becoming a "goodwill ambassador", TV appearances etc, and she ended up travelling more - only to die in a plane crash at the age of 13. I'm not sure there's any point in trying to second-guess fate. Sometimes it's our fears that put us in harm's way.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:12 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

The avherald seem to be indicating no de-icing prior to takeoff, yet describe weather conditions ripe for frost/icing.

This does have at first glance a resemblance to the F28 at Dryden.


And US Air 405 in LGA too. Those were pretty similar to one another. There was also that Air Crash Investigation episode related to those crashes.


OMG guys, yes Dryden, I understand that you're perhaps from Canada, and that the Dryden accident might have resonated a bit there, but please, any aircraft in icing conditions, unless it gets its wings de-iced will develop exactly the very same problem. There's no necessary correlation between icing issues and the Fokkers. Any aircraft unless properly de-iced and sprayed will most likely suffer a stall on take off if its wings are contaminated.....
Same goes for the LGA US air accident.
The poor Fokker that day had sat under snowy and icy conditions for like 45 freakin' minutes!!!! no surprise the wing was contaminated by the time the Fellowship initiated the take off run....
All wing-contamination incidents are pretty similar!!!!


Longhauler and I didn’t single out the F28/100 just that these two “accidents” are eerily similar at first glance.

I also think it’s safe to say that longhauler is well versed in deicing procedures.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:12 pm

spacecadet wrote:
If it is icing, then it really resembles basically every icing crash ever. They are all due to the same thing, regardless of the make or model. There have been many of them. It's been one of the industry's big danger areas for 100 years, and despite all we know now, it still catches flight and ground crews every now and then.

Exactly!

On the other hand, my offering not only has ice on the wings at take-off, but like the Fokker it also impacted a (softish) house. :scratchchin:

From 1946.
Wikipedia wrote:
When the pilot accelerated down the runway he noticed that when the aircraft lifted off, it could not gain any height. The ice on the wings disturbed the air flow, which resulted in the aircraft not gaining any height. It was however too late to abort take-off so the crew was forced to try to get the aircraft to climb. The aircraft flew only a few metres high straight down Angus Drive from the end of the runway until the left wing contacted some rooftops and the aircraft slewed through 90 degrees and came to rest on the roofs of two houses at 44 & 46 Angus Drive in the London suburb of Ruislip

And here it is, sitting pretty in the snow. Image

the crew and passenger all descended into the house's loft, down the loft ladder onto the landing and then down stairs out the front door.
("crew and passenger" = four crew, one passenger. And certainly not overloaded!)
If I remember correctly, the houses are still there, and the name on the gate of one of them is still
"Dakota Rest", 46 Angus Drive, Northolt.

Image
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/OldSchoolCool/ ... h=12a30438[/quote]

(plus usual thx to BBC, Wikipedia, etc)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Rail ... kota_crash
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
airbuster
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:19 pm

I flew the Fokker 70/100 for 6 years in Northern Europe. 6 winters flying up and down to Scandinavia. I spent many preflight walkarounds in the cold and snow. Never ever in those 6 years did I skip a tactile, hands on wing check in several positions. The eye isn’t good enough. And the rule was simple. No ice whatsoever on the topside of the wing.

That said. The Fokker together with the A330 I fly now are both my favorite aircraft of the 4 I have flown commercially as a pilot. Nothing wrong with it as long as you knew how to treat her.
FLY FOKKER JET LINE!
 
Metz727
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:28 pm

Slightly off topic but back in February I flew on a reputed airline A330 from Europe to Chicago. Temperature was just above freezing at take off and we did not de-ice. However on climb out a sheet of ice of around 2sqm (20sqf) developed on the trailing edge above the flaps and started to break off in pieces. I think the last sheet flew off when we passed 8000 ft. Cause for concern or “happens all the time”? I did inform the cabin crew but they showed little interest.
 
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TripleDelta
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:33 am

Metz727 wrote:
Slightly off topic but back in February I flew on a reputed airline A330 from Europe to Chicago. Temperature was just above freezing at take off and we did not de-ice. However on climb out a sheet of ice of around 2sqm (20sqf) developed on the trailing edge above the flaps and started to break off in pieces. I think the last sheet flew off when we passed 8000 ft. Cause for concern or “happens all the time”? I did inform the cabin crew but they showed little interest.


DE-icing (using Type I fluid, dyed orange) is done solely to remove contamination that has accumulated on the aircraft during its stay on the ground. It is also necessary only if there actually is anything to remove; if the aircraft is clean (even in sub-zero temps), there is no reason to de-ice.

ANTI-icing (using Type II, yellowish, or Type IV, green) is done to prevent fresh accumulation of contamination after the aircraft has been de-iced; again, necessary only if the conditions require it.

The trick is that anti-icing fluids need only keep the aircraft clean until take-off; once in the air, that job is the responsibility of the aircraft's own de/anti-icing devices. Indeed, both fluids are specifically designed to flow off the aircraft as it nears rotation speed, so by the time all wheels are in the air, there is no fluid remaining anywhere on the wing (except in "aerodynamically quiet" areas such as flap tracks or similar).
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
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PW100
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:53 pm

Surveillance video has now become available.

Clearly visible is that three unsuccessful attemps were made to rotate. Each time the nose is raised the aircraft barely lifts off, rolls left and right and then drops back to the runway . The last attempt, it slams next to the runway and skids until hitting perimeter fence and a building. Amazingly, no fire . . .!


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/surveillance-cameras-capture-bek-air-fokker-100-accident/135985.article


Edit: direct links to youtube:

Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23_05Us4Qww

Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qYW-hlWUd4

Part 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VmkzrhQlVk

Part 4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OprenA7nRfo
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mxaxai
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:02 pm

Metz727 wrote:
Slightly off topic but back in February I flew on a reputed airline A330 from Europe to Chicago. Temperature was just above freezing at take off and we did not de-ice. However on climb out a sheet of ice of around 2sqm (20sqf) developed on the trailing edge above the flaps and started to break off in pieces. I think the last sheet flew off when we passed 8000 ft. Cause for concern or “happens all the time”? I did inform the cabin crew but they showed little interest.

A little bit of ice on the trailing edge doesn't do much. The leading edge is much more sensitive to disturbances. It's one reason why de-icing boots / heat pipes are at the leading edge only. Trailing edge ice could become dangerous if it were strong enough to block flaps or ailerons, but that's very rare.

******

Regarding the crash, a couple of security cam footage was published. One of the cams got close up footage of the jet sliding into the house. Amazing that there was no fire. You can see sparks (engine stall after debris ingestion?) but then everything goes dark.
Image
https://youtu.be/6VmkzrhQlVk?t=75 (impact at ~ 1:40)
 
D L X
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:15 pm

PW100 wrote:
Surveillance video has now become available.

Clearly visible is that three unsuccessful attemps were made to rotate. Each time the nose is raised the aircraft barely lifts off, rolls left and right and then drops back to the runway . The last attempt, it slams next to the runway and skids until hitting perimeter fence and a building. Amazingly, no fire . . .!

Utterly amazing. For the survivors, thank god for deep snow which (I'm guessing) snuffed out part of the fire triangle.

Pilots: if the plane fails to rotate on the first attempt, do you attempt again? does it depend?
 
IWMBH
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:59 pm

Don’t know if this was already mentioned, but the Dutch Safety Board (OVV) sent a team to Kazakhstan to assist local investigators. This because the Fokker was a Dutch-built plane https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... kazachstan (source is Dutch).
 
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mighluss
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:14 pm

Uau! Maybe pilots didn't realise it wouldn't take off at all well after V1, so you have to do it however... remembers me SPANAIR in MAD in an icy version. :(
Miquel.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:05 am

D L X wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Surveillance video has now become available.

Clearly visible is that three unsuccessful attemps were made to rotate. Each time the nose is raised the aircraft barely lifts off, rolls left and right and then drops back to the runway . The last attempt, it slams next to the runway and skids until hitting perimeter fence and a building. Amazingly, no fire . . .!

Utterly amazing. For the survivors, thank god for deep snow which (I'm guessing) snuffed out part of the fire triangle.

Pilots: if the plane fails to rotate on the first attempt, do you attempt again? does it depend?

Indeed, the snow must have been a major factor there was no fire. OTOH, without snow the aircraft may have stopped much earlier, or at least make the collision with the house with less impact.

mighluss wrote:
Uau! Maybe pilots didn't realise it wouldn't take off at all well after V1, so you have to do it however... remembers me SPANAIR in MAD in an icy version. :(

And Northwest 255 of course, also hitting a lightpole. Had the F100 been airborne when hitting the lightpole I doubt there would be many survivors.

Looks from the video the left wing has lift, just the righthand wing is stalling?
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D L X
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:07 pm

Someone claiming to be the Bek Air chief pilot has commented on the avherald report for this crash.

TWA302 wrote:


https://avherald.com/h?comment=4d127dc6&opt=0

MODS, I don't know if it's within the rules or not to post the comment here.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:54 pm

D L X wrote:
Someone claiming to be the Bek Air chief pilot has commented on the avherald report for this crash.

TWA302 wrote:


https://avherald.com/h?comment=4d127dc6&opt=0

MODS, I don't know if it's within the rules or not to post the comment here.

You can include fair use quotes. In this case, I would just be sure to include that people should take it with a big grain of salt since it's not an official source.
 
D L X
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:03 pm

Allegedly the Chief Pilot at Bek Air (wholly unconfirmed, per the site's management), suggesting the events were the result of wake turbulence from the A321 that departed ahead:

Dear All,

I'm the chief-pilot of Bek Air Company. It is a big tragedy to the aviation world, especially in Kazakhstan's history. To make your view more clear, let me provide you some more information about this accident. I see a lot of opinions about icing creation on the wing.
First of all, the weather conditions were: 1. Wind Direction = 140 degrees. 2. Wind Speed = 1 m/s. 3. Pressure: 1014 hPa. 4. Temperature = -12 degrees Celsius. 5. Visibility = 2100 meters. I want you to look at first to the pressure and temperature values that can show there was no ice condition during the Take-Off. Windshear can be also neglected due to the wind speed.

Secondly, the de-icing procedure was done on the stabilizer, which can mainly prove that the crew checked the wing and found it clear before the departure.
Thirdly, it was found that all anti-ice systems (engines, tail, wing) were switched on during the take-off. This was checked from the data taken from Operational FDR. It also shows that all control units were working and the pilot was controlling them.
Furthermore, Operational FDR also made measurements of wind direction and wind speed during the take-off. We could see that wind direction and the speeds were changing every 2-3 seconds with a high-value of change in direction (for example: from 135 to 0 degrees, from 2 to 20 knots).

These parameters are measured by the IRU system and have an error of 0,7 degrees and 1 knot respectively. The operational range of these measurements from -180 and +180 degrees, and 0 until 256 knots respectively. Therefore, we think that it was wake turbulence left from the previous aircraft. Everyone followed their rules and procedures (Bek Air, KazAirNavigation, Air Astana, Airport). But due to this situation happened in Almaty we need to think about changing intervals between the departures. At least to the Almaty airport which is located in the mountains.
I hope this information will really help. We're here to share our opinions and help to find what happened.

From https://avherald.com/h?comment=4d127dc6&opt=0
 
AeroWatcher
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:16 pm

The alleged chief pilot's claim seems to be contested.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/wake- ... 90.article
 
sandyb123
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:08 pm

This video claims to show the Fokker being de-iced about 10 minutes before the crash.

https://youtu.be/5Qm9s_mEXp0

However it would appear that only the left wing and tail are treated. If this is the actual flight (which is contested) then all involved failed to notice the right wing wasn’t treated.

Sandyb123
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Buyantukhaa
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:46 am

quote="sandyb123"]This video claims to show the Fokker being de-iced about 10 minutes before the crash.

https://youtu.be/5Qm9s_mEXp0

However it would appear that only the left wing and tail are treated. If this is the actual flight (which is contested) then all involved failed to notice the right wing wasn’t treated.

Sandyb123[/quote]
The videos also show that the plane banks to the right, so could be the right wing stalling due to ice accretion.

Some ice seems to be visible here:

Image

Although this is a "late" picture as the forward fuselage has already been removed (and the roof of the house has come down), so hard to tell for sure.
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AstanaMagic
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Re: Fokker 100 Crashes in Kazakstan

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:51 pm

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