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jimatkins
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:18 am

Boeing can get the MAX back in the air, but they won't be truly back until they become an engineering company again. Send a signal to their customers that engineering excellence rules and everything else falls into place.
 
ewt340
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:21 am

They won't do anything drastic in 2020 and 2021. What they would probably do is to get MAX certification going and rush B777X. They wouldn't have time for NMA or B777-10.
Can you look at the backlog they need to catch up with the MAX?

Also, how did we know they gonna get fully certified by 2020? What happen if it doesn't even fly until 2021. Boeing said it would fly by the end of the year and here we are.
Many of you guys are being too optimistic now.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:36 am

I'll add that there hasn't been a huge exodus from existing MAX orders to 320s. Even if they wanted to ditch the MAX, what alternative do they have? I'm sure a few operators here and there can jump the 320 line but all (or even a large chunk) of them?

To answer the OP's question, I don't think it's possible for Boeing to make a 2020 comeback. There is a lot of damage and it'll take more than a year to repair. They done goofed big time
 
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:56 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
A sizable chunk of people (enough to affect the bottom line) refusing to fly the MAX? I'll believe it when I see it.

Boeing is too far in, airlines are too far in, they'll make the MAX work.

Honestly, even if Boeing decided to scrap the MAX, do you know how much of a ****show it'll be for not just Boeing, but many airlines? Boeing can't just wave their hands and make a 737 replacement in a few months or even years. What will the airlines do? Even if Airbus wanted to, they're in no position to fill all the 737 orders with A320.

Complete madness, the MAX will fly again, and almost no one in the normal traveling public is gonna know and care. I never gamble but if I did, I'd throw so much money down on that


An airline that is too far into the MAX to change course. Which one would that be? Even the biggest ones got a few dozen MAX delivered and fly on. Cancellations of the MAX would make it necessary to fly on with aging 737s, A320s, 757s, MD80s years longer. Increase ticket prices, Maybe overhaul parked ones. Significant numbers are in long term storage, usually in dry places.

Life extending upgrades and modification programs would need to be launched by the airlines and MRO industry to bridge FSA development. Engine OE’s would be involved. Not the preferred way ahead but possible. Northwest DC9 operations proved it.

I feel the assurances no passengers will remember MAX and airlines are still dying to get their hands on 4000 737 MAX deliveries, start to sound hollow.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:42 am

It is worth mentioning that Boeing buying controlling interest in Embraer's airliner division might show more flawed reasoning of the Chicago bean counters. Boeing is spending big to buy a regional airliner manufacturer who cannot even deliver a new generation E175E2 that meets scope clauses for US regional airlines. Embraer is selling small numbers of the E190/195E2's, but both of those are coming up short against heavy competition from the Airbus A220. The big volume and money for Embraer is in the 76-seat category where they cannot yet play. Remember when Boeing bought DeHaviland Canada and then had absolutely no idea how to run it? The same thing will happen with Embraer.
 
TaniTaniwha
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:05 am

If only Boeing could get this guy back...

Interesting article from Forbes

"If you think leadership doesn’t matter, look at Boeing."

From back in March

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffm ... ad48702e15
[photoid][/photoid][photoid][/photoid]
 
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Antaras
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:48 am

TaniTaniwha wrote:
If only Boeing could get this guy back...

Interesting article from Forbes

"If you think leadership doesn’t matter, look at Boeing."

From back in March

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffm ... ad48702e15

Hoping that the new board will be able to revive Boeing.
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asr0dzjq
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:54 am

Make Boeing Great Again
R.I.P. Douglas Aircraft Company
Born 22 July 1921 | Died 23 May 2006
You will be missed, but your management will not.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:07 am

One thing that not many people care about is the overload of Airbus' facilities. XFW and TLS can't reach their delivery goal, besides the PW's GTF problem caused a major grounding/delivery delays, which made carriers angry.
One of the big example was Vietjet. Not to mention the grounding of MAX that they couldn't get new frames from Boeing, they hoped that their order of 120++ A321Ns with Airbus could safe them, especially when Airbus proposed that they would deliver 12-15 fresh aircraft for VJ. Unfortunately, in 2019 they could only hilariously receive 6 from Airbus [just 4 of them were parts of the order, the remaining 2 were from lessors :D). As a result, they predicted that they won't have enough frames for 2020 projects, especially they won't be able to cover Vietnam's sky in the high season of January-February (Lunar New Year holidays). Now, to save themselves, they are wet-leasing a handful number of aircraft from FlyOne and Avion, besides looting a large number of ex-Thomas Cook A321WLs. They also confirm a chance that they may close their Thailand's subsidiary (TVJ) to get more aircraft.

If Boeing can recover the MAX production line, the carriers will be happy because they will have a chance to get new frames [again], and this will be an extremely good chance to recover Boeing's cutomers' faith.
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Antaras
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:16 am

Not really related to aviation, but Boeing needs to learn Samsung how to recover the reputation after huge scandals. If you remember, years ago the Korean tech group was facing the explosion of their flagship Galaxy Note7, caused the cancellation and the recall of the series. And now, SS is still living well, and the next Note generations are very good and being trusted by the customers.

However, there is a very big difference between Sam's and Boe's scandal, that no one died because of the Note7s. Unfortunately, hundreds of innocents were killed by the MAX.
It will be interesting to see how Boeing recover itself in 2020. Let's hope Boeing's new managers can make something new (and great) to revive the whole group.
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Elementalism
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:46 am

Antaras wrote:
Everyone agreed that 2019 is the worst year in the history of Boeing, with the crashes of the high-expectation 737MAX, the safety-culture scandal (at CHS) and the delay of projects, including the development of 777X.
In your opinion, do you think that Boeing will come back and recover its reputation after the crashes, and fly further with a handful number of beautiful projects?

Boeing's bucket list in 2020:
- Bring the 777X-9 and 737MAX10 to the sky.
- Announce the NMA (some clean sheet designs or just modernized-767 models as rumours?) to compete with the hot-selling A321XLRs.
- Most importantly, recertify the MAXs and convince everyone that the MAXs will be safe and there will be no more crashes and troubles.
- Acquire Embraer successfully.

Do you think Boeing will make it?

Just leaving a picture of the MAX10 here for no reasons :D


Get the MAX flying and their year will be stellar. Once that is done get the 777x back on track. And move forward with a replacement for the 737 to arrive late in the decade.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:57 am

Yes with a a

pronounced Middle Market announcement

rather than the announcement which has actually subtlety been made, regarding the MAX 9 and 10 as I have seen on here somewhere.

Apple juice is made from apples, and just because a few seeds get through during the juicing process, doesn’t mean the juice gets chucked down the drain.

Strained juice can be drunk, if there is the foresight for the juicer to get the right strainer to make it pristine, even if truthfully it’s been reworked and strained repeatedly.

Boeing just needs the right Middle Market juice to get things going again in my opinion.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
MavyWavyATR
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:20 am

It's possible, but Boeing is gonna have a tough time coming back IMO. Their credibility is pretty much shattered to this point.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:42 am

How can it take this long just to install a "MCAS OFF" button?
 
ewt340
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:46 am

Antaras wrote:
Not really related to aviation, but Boeing needs to learn Samsung how to recover the reputation after huge scandals. If you remember, years ago the Korean tech group was facing the explosion of their flagship Galaxy Note7, caused the cancellation and the recall of the series. And now, SS is still living well, and the next Note generations are very good and being trusted by the customers.

However, there is a very big difference between Sam's and Boe's scandal, that no one died because of the Note7s. Unfortunately, hundreds of innocents were killed by the MAX.
It will be interesting to see how Boeing recover itself in 2020. Let's hope Boeing's new managers can make something new (and great) to revive the whole group.


A smartphone and an aircraft are 2 different things. You can't really compared the two.

Samsung could easily refund and pull back the product and then replaced it with a new one in a matter of months cause it's cheap. Boeing already built tons of MAX plane. Some of them already have engines built and attached to them. Boeing can't scrapped these fully functioning fuselages and all the things in them.

The better comparison would be: Samsung stop delivering their Note7 and then they built 1 million of them after the recall, stored it for a year. And then replace the battery for all of the 1 million and the other 500 thousands they already sold to the public before the recall.

But they didn't refund any of the customers fully, just some smaller compensation. And they didn't came up with Note 8 for the next 10 years.
 
blueflyer
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:00 am

I think 2020 is the year Boeing recertifies the Max and starts returning grounded aircraft to the air and delivering its backlog. All grounded aircraft may be back in service before the end of the year, however I doubt the backlog of built-and-undelivered aircraft will be cleared by then. 2021 is the year they think about a comeback.

Does anyone recall how many hours on average it is estimated it would take to make a grounded Max airworthy again? I guess the silver lining to shutting down the production line is, there will be many factory-trained engineers available to assist airlines in returning their Max to the skies and accepting new deliveries. It's not as if the factory will go from 0 to 60 in a month's time either.

I don't think that Boeing can afford to scrap the Max. It would be financially ruinous and put them behind Airbus for years.

As far as I know (I don't pretend to be the best informed), there are no new generation engine coming out anytime soon. Therefore Boeing will spend billions to design a New-Max aircraft that will be marginally better than current generation since it will be powered by essentially the same engines. Boeing will take the lead on performance over Airbus, but probably not by much. That allows Airbus to sit and wait a few more years until new engines are available, and it can then make a performance leap. At that stage, Boeing will have to either spend billions yet again on a new aircraft design, or watch Airbus leave them in the dust in terms of performance. Neither option is a good one.
 
blueflyer
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:02 am

peterinlisbon wrote:
How can it take this long just to install a "MCAS OFF" button?

I'm sure you were not (entirely) serious, however recall that the MCAS or something equivalent is essential to recertifying the Max. No MCAS, no Max. That simple.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:31 am

No! 2020 might even be worse for Boeing. 2021-2022 at the earliest.
 
foxtrotbravo21
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:19 am

Beoing should be ok in 2022 after it straighten out its financials from the Max debackle by then and the Max is back on track. However believe the greatest come back is when Beoing decide to go ahead with a clean sheet Narrow body aircraft to replace its 737 line and perhaps start on the improvements of its 787 by stretching it and perhaps with a newer wing design.
 
vegas005
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:26 am

The FAA sure isn't helping matters. The MAX should have been flying a few months ago yet is still grounded by the FAA dragging their feet. If they truly demanded the firing of the Boeing CEO, that's outrageous as well (although I think he needed to go, that is not a decision for an outside authority).

Boeing needs to get the MAX flying, the 777x delays fixed and they are really missing the market segment in the NMA .. the time is now to show the world they can produce the products that made them the world leader. Will they do it? I don't know but I'll be rooting for them..competition is a good thing and I'll be enjoying the A350 and A380 while I watch this unfold...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:32 am

blueflyer wrote:
recall that the MCAS or something equivalent is essential to recertifying the Max. No MCAS, no Max. That simple.

When was that officially determined?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
vegas005
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:46 am

LAX772LR wrote:
blueflyer wrote:
recall that the MCAS or something equivalent is essential to recertifying the Max. No MCAS, no Max. That simple.

When was that officially determined?



I watched a youtube with 737 pilots discussing MCAS. They clearly stated MCAS was designed to make the MAX fly like all the other 737s so no pilot certification was needed. They claimed the MCAS could be removed and pilots would need to certify on the plane....MCAS is not needed to fly the 737 MAX as long as the pilots have been trained on the MAX... I'll try and find the video...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:57 am

vegas005 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
blueflyer wrote:
recall that the MCAS or something equivalent is essential to recertifying the Max. No MCAS, no Max. That simple.

When was that officially determined?

I watched a youtube with 737 pilots discussing MCAS. They clearly stated MCAS was designed to make the MAX fly like all the other 737s so no pilot certification was needed. They claimed the MCAS could be removed and pilots would need to certify on the plane....MCAS is not needed to fly the 737 MAX as long as the pilots have been trained on the MAX... I'll try and find the video...

Spare yourself the search, it's not needed.

The operative word is highlighted for emphasis.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
B777LRF
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:10 am

Boeing didn't install MCAS for sh1ts and giggles; they did so as a means to make the aircraft certifiable. There may be other ways to make the Max compliant, but MCAS was the route Boeing chose to take.

That's about as close to "official" as it gets; no MCAS, no Max.
Signature. You just read one.
 
VC10er
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:15 am

I have zero inside scoop, but this week I did catch up on any 737MAX and Boeing news from reputable publications. According to Forbes, Reuters, Wall st Journal and Chicago Business- each article said the same thing about the situation. Boeing’s balance sheet is apparently very strong.

Their reputation has taken a major hit and it will take time (and really nobody can predict how long) to restore Boeing’s reputation back to being a shining star. In my experience working on corporate brands who suffer publicly (like bp and Philip Morris / Altria) much will depend on brilliant management and brilliant PR people, who work beautifully together.

Some people do have long memories and for them anything from Boeing with the word “MAX” on it, they will not be able to overcome it. Yet, those same people may still be fine flying a 767, 787, 777.

The difference for Boeing is “what they build” (AIRPLANES) so while tobacco will have claimed millions of lives: not everyone smokes. While the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico harmed bp horribly, I’m sure most people are not thinking about that anymore when pulling into a bp station.

But airplanes and airlines have an inherent problem baked into them. An airline can safely fly 150 million people a year, year after year- would need to go to Google to see what year that airline had a fatal accident; United is only now starting to see social media not bringing up the Dr Dao incident. Aircraft manufacturers or airplane types are so easily tainted forever despite any other facts. I think a good number of people over 50 still think the DC-10 was a dangerous airplane. There will always be a percentage of people who shall never forget the word “MAX”. I think we would all agree that the 767 and 777 have had fabulous safety records, but I would hope Boeing (if they did update the 767) wouldn’t call it a 767MAX!

Boeing (IMHO) is WAY too important a company for the USA, to Washington DC (especially given Boeing’s contribution to the USA GDP) to let them go the way of PanAm or Lehman Brothers. It will all be fixed over time, it won’t be easy, and the 77X better not have any incidents! I do think a shiny new thing like the 779 with folding wingtips, and another new beauty (be it the NMA or new NB) that performs really well, in sales and seen as “cool” like the 787 Dreamliner will do A LOT to bury the 2019 737MAX catastrophes and Boeing’s sullied reputation.

But both airlines and aircraft will always stir passions in people, like no other business category.
In fact this morning my friend (who’s visiting from Brazil and had flown UA a few times before with no problems, raved to his friends about his Polaris trip to TLV on a 77W) was flying United domestically and his flight was delayed 2 hours due to aircraft mechanical issues. In that 2 hours I got a dozen texts, to him, “ONLY” United has airplanes that break. I asked which airline does he usually fly that has never had a problem- “all the rest!” I asked him “would you prefer to fly without them fixing whatever it is?” (No answer) BUT, after getting compensation in the form of miles deposited and finally arriving, he was happy and nothing bad happened. Second to politics, I really only see people get so emotional, so often about Airlines???
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:17 am

There won't be any «comeback» in 2020. Here is my most pessimistic predictions for 2020:

737
More problems are discovered, including structural weaknesses. For example, the pickle forks might be even more prone for cracking on the MAX due to heavier engines and generally higher load forces etc. A third AoA sensor needs to be installed on all MAX aircraft. The US3 makes it clear that they won't put the 737 MAX in domestic service before the three major Western authorities (FAA, EASA, TCCA) all deem it safe to fly.

Legal matters will hunt Boeing throughout the year. Airlines takes Boeing to court in order to get full compensation. Many 737 orders gets cancelled. Criminal investigations of the former management gets plenty of media coverage.

Production won't restart during 2020. Boeing will have their hands full with getting the hundreds of grounded 737s upgraded and back in service. It won't be just a software upgrade. Many of the 400 undelivered aircraft will be delivered to airlines during Q4 2020.

767
Still production problems with the KC-46 tanker. Ranging from foreign objects and loose debris found in completed aircraft, to issues with the stiffness of its refueling boom that makes the connection to the tanker for refueling difficult etc. The KC-46 continues to be restricted from carrying cargo and passengers due to an issue with the floor cargo locks coming unblocked in flight. The entire program continues to be a financial disaster with huge cost over-runs. In other words, nothing new in 2020.

787
Boeing announces further production rate cut due to lack of demand. Boeing has already announced that they will lower the production from 14/month to 12/month. In 2020 Boeing announces that the production rate will be lowered to 10/month. Continued problems with the RR powered 787 fleet, where a large share will be grounded for repairs in 2020 as in 2019. Another uncontained engine malfunction in 2020, similar to the one that spread debris all over Rome in 2019. Temporary grounding of the 787 RR powered fleet (about 40% of all 787s).

777
The final verdict in the WTO case, concerning the huge 777X subsidies, will come this spring. All possibilities for appeals have been exhausted. The EU responds to the tariffs the US imposed on Airbus aircraft in 2019, but with a twist. Instead of import tariffs, all 777X operation in EU airspace will be illegal until the approximately 8 billion dollars in subsidies have been repaid. A 777X ban will hurt all 777X customers, as all of them plan to use the 777X to/from the EU (including Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways and Emirates).

The first flight of the 777X highlights more problems, not only with the engines, but related to the explosion and rupture of the fuselage during the pressurization test in the fall of 2019. The fuselage design need to be strengthened. It is discovered that the lacking safety culture have also affected the 777X program. Even more orders gets cancelled in 2020 than in 2019. First delivery is rescheduled to 2024. Boeing considers terminating the 777X program completely and instead develop an 787-11ER. That way the subsidies don't have to be repaid, existing production capabilities on the 787 production line can be utilized, and the cost benefits from higher volume production will be most welcomed.

747
Last freighter leaves the assembly line, terminating the 747 production.

Embraer
The Embraer acquisition won't get regulatory approval. Boeing is relieved. The cash is needed to cover running costs and paying compensation to airlines.
 
phlswaflyer
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:30 am

RawSushi wrote:
Within a year? No way. The company needs a major cultural reboot, and they've got a massive supply chain that will only get more unhappy and degrade in capacity the longer this drags on. This is in addition to already strained relationships from all the squeezing Boeing has been doing in recent years. Customer confidence is being stretched and we haven't even begun to talk about compensation. Reputation among the flying public is in tatters. Has any company in world history ever recovered from problems of this magnitude within a year? I think not!

This is a company that needs to regroup, focus on building good products and safe planes rather than cutting corners for profit. The rot is deep. This doesn't just get fixed overnight.


Well said and agree 100%.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:38 am

reidar76 wrote:
There won't be any «comeback» in 2020. Here is my most pessimistic predictions for 2020:

737
More problems are discovered, including structural weaknesses. For example, the pickle forks might be even more prone for cracking on the MAX due to heavier engines and generally higher load forces etc. A third AoA sensor needs to be installed on all MAX aircraft. The US3 makes it clear that they won't put the 737 MAX in domestic service before the three major Western authorities (FAA, EASA, TCCA) all deem it safe to fly.

Legal matters will hunt Boeing throughout the year. Airlines takes Boeing to court in order to get full compensation. Many 737 orders gets cancelled. Criminal investigations of the former management gets plenty of media coverage.

Production won't restart during 2020. Boeing will have their hands full with getting the hundreds of grounded 737s upgraded and back in service. It won't be just a software upgrade. Many of the 400 undelivered aircraft will be delivered to airlines during Q4 2020.

767
Still production problems with the KC-46 tanker. Ranging from foreign objects and loose debris found in completed aircraft, to issues with the stiffness of its refueling boom that makes the connection to the tanker for refueling difficult etc. The KC-46 continues to be restricted from carrying cargo and passengers due to an issue with the floor cargo locks coming unblocked in flight. The entire program continues to be a financial disaster with huge cost over-runs. In other words, nothing new in 2020.

787
Boeing announces further production rate cut due to lack of demand. Boeing has already announced that they will lower the production from 14/month to 12/month. In 2020 Boeing announces that the production rate will be lowered to 10/month. Continued problems with the RR powered 787 fleet, where a large share will be grounded for repairs in 2020 as in 2019. Another uncontained engine malfunction in 2020, similar to the one that spread debris all over Rome in 2019. Temporary grounding of the 787 RR powered fleet (about 40% of all 787s).

777
The final verdict in the WTO case, concerning the huge 777X subsidies, will come this spring. All possibilities for appeals have been exhausted. The EU responds to the tariffs the US imposed on Airbus aircraft in 2019, but with a twist. Instead of import tariffs, all 777X operation in EU airspace will be illegal until the approximately 8 billion dollars in subsidies have been repaid. A 777X ban will hurt all 777X customers, as all of them plan to use the 777X to/from the EU (including Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways and Emirates).

The first flight of the 777X highlights more problems, not only with the engines, but related to the explosion and rupture of the fuselage during the pressurization test in the fall of 2019. The fuselage design need to be strengthened. It is discovered that the lacking safety culture have also affected the 777X program. Even more orders gets cancelled in 2020 than in 2019. First delivery is rescheduled to 2024. Boeing considers terminating the 777X program completely and instead develop an 787-11ER. That way the subsidies don't have to be repaid, existing production capabilities on the 787 production line can be utilized, and the cost benefits from higher volume production will be most welcomed.

747
Last freighter leaves the assembly line, terminating the 747 production.

Embraer
The Embraer acquisition won't get regulatory approval. Boeing is relieved. The cash is needed to cover running costs and paying compensation to airlines.


Not the most pessimistic, but the most negative predictions.
Once again, thanks for your negativity (and also your sense of humour) :lol:

P/s: I do agree with you about the RR-powered 787s' troubles. It seems kinda like RR is still not be able to find a good [enough] solution, there is no enhancement on newly-built engines. I won't surprise if the RR airframes will be grounded and carriers will realize that their engine choice was an extremely big mistake (started with ANZ when they have chosen GE for their future B787-10s but not the quacky Trents that the installed on their existing fleet of B789)

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ltbewr
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:40 am

One other factor that may hurt Boeing's attempts to recover in 2020 is the world's economy. A significant international recession would hurt demand for any civilian aircraft, possibly some orders cancelled as the money supply for loans tightens for loans and lease financing. That could be compounded by delays, practical inabilities and costs to fix the MAX issues and the likely long process of certifications and training.
 
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Lingon
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:48 am

The 737 is Boeing's bread and butter and they have thousands of them on their order books. Of course the priority number one is to get it flying again, they must do it and they will do it. Scrapping the 737 is no option, it's like suggesting ripping out the heart of the body. They will make a come back but they have been wounded and that will affect the willingness to take risks with new projects. The 777-X is icing on the 737 cake, not as important.

I think they will do great when they can start deliveries of the MAX again. If that can be soon enough, 2020 could be a good year. If not, 2020 won't be particularly stellar..

Everything boils down to the MAX's reentry in service.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:59 am

TaniTaniwha wrote:
If only Boeing could get this guy back...

Interesting article from Forbes

"If you think leadership doesn’t matter, look at Boeing."

From back in March

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffm ... ad48702e15

This. A thousand per cent.

Bring Alan in as an industry titan with wide experience of Boeing programs (not McDD-led programs) if he'll come back on a shortish contract or open ended deal. If he says he'll fix the company and get the 737 flying, put your mortgage on him. He has that touch and the clout to pull it off.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:26 pm

Boeing has yet to work out that it was its culture which failed. Trying to produce an unstable jet has to be one of the worst moves a passenger Jet builder can make. It needs to work out why it was still producing a plane without fly by wire when Concorde had it. Its that mentality of sticking to the past while trying to pump out the maximum profit for shareholders. Boeing needs a fundamental redesign of the 737 and it needs to take that action 12 months ago. SO far the signs are not good.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:48 pm

vegas005 wrote:
The FAA sure isn't helping matters. The MAX should have been flying a few months ago yet is still grounded by the FAA dragging their feet. If they truly demanded the firing of the Boeing CEO, that's outrageous as well (although I think he needed to go, that is not a decision for an outside authority).
.


You probably haven't heard that Boeing have constantly been putting pressure on the FAA? Over the past year management have been announcing that the FAA will clear the MAX in 3 months time or there abouts. This has been news to the FAA who had not given any dates or even held such talks with Boeing. SO quite right that the FAA feels put upon by Boeing especially after dropping them in it for the certification of the MAX. The FAA are quite rightly not amused by Boeing and so are under to rush to speed up certification. WHy should they? If they clear it and another MAX crashes the FAA will be devastated so they are going to go through this very thoroughly. The FAA have no time pressure. Boeing has.

The problem Boeing has is that management have not worked out that another crash will kill Boeing.
 
BrianWilkes
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:21 pm

A simple answer "NO"
 
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OA940
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:33 pm

Assuming the MAX comes back in 2020, it still doesn't solve a huge issue, public perception. Regardless of how safe it is, Boeing has lost almost all confidence in the frame from the flying public (and rightly so). Now I agree that once international regulators certify it it's gonna be just as safe as any other frame out there, but there are still gonna be a lot of people who won't trust it. Boeing can't fix that. All they can do is wait and hope

The 777X program was delayed but so is almost every new aircraft program so that's not a big surprise. As long as they can deliver the first frames in 2021 there shouldn't be any big problem.

The MAX saga revealed there's a pretty significant problem with Boeing at the moment (and with the FAA and regulators across the world but that's off topic), along with all the scandals that have emerged these past 9 months, not only regarding the MAX, but their other programs and the company as a whole. IMO their main goal for 2020 shouldn't be to get the MAX back in the air (obviously that should be a priority too) but to get their act together. Their prioritizing profits over safety clearly didn't end up that well, and if they wanna lose all the negative press they must make some radical changes. They're already beginning to do that, but they still have some ways to go. If they don't change the entire company culture nobody can guarrantee something like this won't happen again
A350/CSeries = bae
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:44 pm

reidar76 wrote:
There won't be any «comeback» in 2020. Here is my most pessimistic predictions for 2020:

737
More problems are discovered, including structural weaknesses. For example, the pickle forks might be even more prone for cracking on the MAX due to heavier engines and generally higher load forces etc. A third AoA sensor needs to be installed on all MAX aircraft. The US3 makes it clear that they won't put the 737 MAX in domestic service before the three major Western authorities (FAA, EASA, TCCA) all deem it safe to fly.

Legal matters will hunt Boeing throughout the year. Airlines takes Boeing to court in order to get full compensation. Many 737 orders gets cancelled. Criminal investigations of the former management gets plenty of media coverage.

Production won't restart during 2020. Boeing will have their hands full with getting the hundreds of grounded 737s upgraded and back in service. It won't be just a software upgrade. Many of the 400 undelivered aircraft will be delivered to airlines during Q4 2020.

767
Still production problems with the KC-46 tanker. Ranging from foreign objects and loose debris found in completed aircraft, to issues with the stiffness of its refueling boom that makes the connection to the tanker for refueling difficult etc. The KC-46 continues to be restricted from carrying cargo and passengers due to an issue with the floor cargo locks coming unblocked in flight. The entire program continues to be a financial disaster with huge cost over-runs. In other words, nothing new in 2020.

787
Boeing announces further production rate cut due to lack of demand. Boeing has already announced that they will lower the production from 14/month to 12/month. In 2020 Boeing announces that the production rate will be lowered to 10/month. Continued problems with the RR powered 787 fleet, where a large share will be grounded for repairs in 2020 as in 2019. Another uncontained engine malfunction in 2020, similar to the one that spread debris all over Rome in 2019. Temporary grounding of the 787 RR powered fleet (about 40% of all 787s).

777
The final verdict in the WTO case, concerning the huge 777X subsidies, will come this spring. All possibilities for appeals have been exhausted. The EU responds to the tariffs the US imposed on Airbus aircraft in 2019, but with a twist. Instead of import tariffs, all 777X operation in EU airspace will be illegal until the approximately 8 billion dollars in subsidies have been repaid. A 777X ban will hurt all 777X customers, as all of them plan to use the 777X to/from the EU (including Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways and Emirates).

The first flight of the 777X highlights more problems, not only with the engines, but related to the explosion and rupture of the fuselage during the pressurization test in the fall of 2019. The fuselage design need to be strengthened. It is discovered that the lacking safety culture have also affected the 777X program. Even more orders gets cancelled in 2020 than in 2019. First delivery is rescheduled to 2024. Boeing considers terminating the 777X program completely and instead develop an 787-11ER. That way the subsidies don't have to be repaid, existing production capabilities on the 787 production line can be utilized, and the cost benefits from higher volume production will be most welcomed.

747
Last freighter leaves the assembly line, terminating the 747 production.

Embraer
The Embraer acquisition won't get regulatory approval. Boeing is relieved. The cash is needed to cover running costs and paying compensation to airlines.


That is a very pessimistic view. As an example, suggesting that the last 747 leaves the line in 2020 despite firm orders from UPS through 2022 implies cancellations.

I don’t think anyone is predicting UPS cancelling 747-8F orders. It is displacing 25 year old MD11s off their international network and is desperately needed. Triumph actually built ahead so 747 production can continue to 2022.
Last edited by Weatherwatcher1 on Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sxf24
Posts: 993
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:49 pm

Channex757 wrote:
TaniTaniwha wrote:
If only Boeing could get this guy back...

Interesting article from Forbes

"If you think leadership doesn’t matter, look at Boeing."

From back in March

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffm ... ad48702e15

This. A thousand per cent.

Bring Alan in as an industry titan with wide experience of Boeing programs (not McDD-led programs) if he'll come back on a shortish contract or open ended deal. If he says he'll fix the company and get the 737 flying, put your mortgage on him. He has that touch and the clout to pull it off.


Alan Mullaly creates the 787 and it’s original production system. He is not a solution.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:59 pm

reidar76 wrote:
There won't be any «comeback» in 2020. Here is my most pessimistic predictions for 2020:

737
More problems are discovered, including structural weaknesses. For example, the pickle forks might be even more prone for cracking on the MAX due to heavier engines and generally higher load forces etc. A third AoA sensor needs to be installed on all MAX aircraft. The US3 makes it clear that they won't put the 737 MAX in domestic service before the three major Western authorities (FAA, EASA, TCCA) all deem it safe to fly.

Legal matters will hunt Boeing throughout the year. Airlines takes Boeing to court in order to get full compensation. Many 737 orders gets cancelled. Criminal investigations of the former management gets plenty of media coverage.

Production won't restart during 2020. Boeing will have their hands full with getting the hundreds of grounded 737s upgraded and back in service. It won't be just a software upgrade. Many of the 400 undelivered aircraft will be delivered to airlines during Q4 2020.

767
Still production problems with the KC-46 tanker. Ranging from foreign objects and loose debris found in completed aircraft, to issues with the stiffness of its refueling boom that makes the connection to the tanker for refueling difficult etc. The KC-46 continues to be restricted from carrying cargo and passengers due to an issue with the floor cargo locks coming unblocked in flight. The entire program continues to be a financial disaster with huge cost over-runs. In other words, nothing new in 2020.

787
Boeing announces further production rate cut due to lack of demand. Boeing has already announced that they will lower the production from 14/month to 12/month. In 2020 Boeing announces that the production rate will be lowered to 10/month. Continued problems with the RR powered 787 fleet, where a large share will be grounded for repairs in 2020 as in 2019. Another uncontained engine malfunction in 2020, similar to the one that spread debris all over Rome in 2019. Temporary grounding of the 787 RR powered fleet (about 40% of all 787s).

777
The final verdict in the WTO case, concerning the huge 777X subsidies, will come this spring. All possibilities for appeals have been exhausted. The EU responds to the tariffs the US imposed on Airbus aircraft in 2019, but with a twist. Instead of import tariffs, all 777X operation in EU airspace will be illegal until the approximately 8 billion dollars in subsidies have been repaid. A 777X ban will hurt all 777X customers, as all of them plan to use the 777X to/from the EU (including Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways and Emirates).

The first flight of the 777X highlights more problems, not only with the engines, but related to the explosion and rupture of the fuselage during the pressurization test in the fall of 2019. The fuselage design need to be strengthened. It is discovered that the lacking safety culture have also affected the 777X program. Even more orders gets cancelled in 2020 than in 2019. First delivery is rescheduled to 2024. Boeing considers terminating the 777X program completely and instead develop an 787-11ER. That way the subsidies don't have to be repaid, existing production capabilities on the 787 production line can be utilized, and the cost benefits from higher volume production will be most welcomed.

747
Last freighter leaves the assembly line, terminating the 747 production.

Embraer
The Embraer acquisition won't get regulatory approval. Boeing is relieved. The cash is needed to cover running costs and paying compensation to airlines.


In regards to the 737.
Boeing looses a batch of exemptions, has to install EICAS, rework the trim wheel, do some aerodynamic work, that increases fuel burn, has to make the MAX 16 g compliant. Some frames can not be converted and have to be scrapped.
A bonus for Boeing would be, the MAX is allowed to fly with a redesigned MCAS, while Boeing is working down the list.
Of course the above is my view only.

In regards to the 767.
The cargo floor is fixed, the KC-46 is allowed to carry cargo and passengers again. The problems with the boom. The air force has accepted that the boom being to stiff, was a failure in the requirements, it will be fixed on government cost. The problems with the camera are still Boeing's bother. (all that already happened in 2019)
So the future does not look to bad.

In regards to the 787
I agree with the need for further rate cuts. 10 a month I still find optimistic. The order numbers do not support that.
I actually believe that the RR engine troubles will cease.

In regards to the 777X
The timeline will move to the right, but no other troubles during certification. GE will not reach the expected fuel burn, far from doing better. The acceptance of the frame will not lead to high production numbers.

In regards to the 747
The line will shut down. No a prediction but a fact.

The WTO case in the spring
Boeing will loose that case. If Trump is out, the EU will come to an understanding with the USA, tariffs will be drop and even be repaid. If Trump is still in, trade war will rage, tariffs will be set on both sides. Boeing will come out worse out of this trade war, because Airbus has production facilities in the USA.

my predictions and a happy new year.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:13 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
In regards to the 747
The line will shut down. No a prediction but a fact.


The 747 is remaining in production until 2022. The final assembly production line will not shutdown in 2020
 
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glideslope
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:24 pm

Does the 737-10 have MCAS? I thought I read something where it is not on the 10 Series?
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
VictorKilo
Posts: 251
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:39 am

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:30 pm

Boeing will have a successful 2020 if they reject the idea that a short term “comeback” is the barometer of success.

Success, rather, is in recognizing that there are systemic issues within the company that have led the company to where it is today, and that Boeing must recognize and address those issues in order to regain the trust of the customers of its products and the those who fly and ride in them.

Success is recognizing that it will not have the success on Wall Street through earnings in the long term unless it makes those systemic changes.

Success is recognizing that this process will be painful, and will not happen overnight, but is necessary.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:44 pm

glideslope wrote:
Does the 737-10 have MCAS? I thought I read something where it is not on the 10 Series?

No *official* confirmation yet.
Just spending some few minutes surfing MAX-related threads and topics in this forum, here is my summary [of rumours and unreliable pieces of information] :
- Some said that there's no MCAS on the MAX10 because of the aerodynamic design on the MAX10 is different from its smaller brothers => MCAS is unnecessary and not installed on the MAX10.
- Other said that they found some official docs (?) said that the MCAS is installed on every variant of the MAX family, including the MAX10.

Even Wikipedia doesn't mention the existence of MCAS on the biggest bro of the family - the MAX10.
No one to trust, but hopefully no :?
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VSMUT
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:48 pm

reidar76 wrote:
There won't be any «comeback» in 2020. Here is my most pessimistic predictions for 2020:


I agree with the risks. Boeing has a lot on its plate, and not just the 737 MAX. IMO, people would do well to draw parallels with the Airbus crisis in 2006. That was nowhere as serious, but it still took several years to get out of.
Boeing won't come back in 2020. They may start turning around, but thats it. Massive damage has been done, there is no easy way out.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:51 pm

MCAS will be a useful piece of technology on the MAXs IF Boeing use this system with 2 AoA sensors.
In fact, there is more than 1 AoA sensor on the MAX, but Boeing decided to link the MCAS with just one.
Linking more AoA sensor with the MCAS will be a compulsory improvement for the MAX.
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AleksW
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:08 pm

Brand new clean sheet design 757 size aircraft. Won't happen next year though.
 
ChrisKen
Posts: 975
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:15 pm

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:10 pm

American 767 wrote:
How about a few more orders for 748Fs? That would be nice, especially for the 747 production line. Keep the Queen going on an on.

Slight problem, the supply line has been terminally severed. No more fuselage sections will be built as the factory has already been shuttered and emptied. More supply lines to follow in quick succesison.
 
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:12 pm

"I think the 737MAX will fly again, and will probably be the “safest” aircraft in the sky. "


Typical. This 737 drama all has to do with the new aircraft being certified to old requirements, ignoring crusial interfaces. Regulators have been pushed around for years, stringent rules were degraded to make the 737MAX pass.

Boeing is defending this certification, because if it proves unacceptable, delays and costs will be massive.

Still, "the 737MAX will probably be the safest aircraft in the sky".

Whatever.


Antaras wrote:
MCAS will be a useful piece of technology on the MAXs IF Boeing use this system with 2 AoA sensors.
In fact, there is more than 1 AoA sensor on the MAX, but Boeing decided to link the MCAS with just one.
Linking more AoA sensor with the MCAS will be a compulsory improvement for the MAX.


MCAS might actually not be a MCAS, but an anti stall system. The white elephant in the room. EASA will stall test the MAX themselves, with MCAS deactivated. Maybe Boeing has new insights they want to share before those test flights.
Last edited by keesje on Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JJ777
Posts: 37
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:17 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Not sure, am amazed at how A.net cheers every problem at Boeing. Another A vs B battle (and of course A is far better - B is BAD).

Boeing will take a number of months more to get the MAX RTS, the 777X will have its first flight soon. New programs are shelved until further notice, will come back once there is regular production on all current models again with the MAX backlog cleared back.


Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.

Not only it won't, it'll be a bigger and better company after the MAX saga comes to an end, and it will happen sooner than some people here think. By June 2020 many people around the World will be flying MAXes again.
 
Bongodog49
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:44 pm

Boeing won't be "bigger and better than before" not possible with the huge financial hit and the loss of prestige. Whilst it is true that they are keeping their heads above water, their financial position would be a lot lot better without 400 undelivered aircraft, over 300 delivered but grounded and many never to be produced due to the slow down and stopping of the line.

They will however get the MAX back in the air with all certification and resume production, probably having lost a years production along the way. The project is too big to fail, the Worlds airlines have a requirement for more than 1000 single aisle planes in the B737/A320 class each year. In the short term older frames can be kept in service, but there is a limit to what is possible. Airbus can't double production, just as Boeing wouldn't be able to if we were discussing an Airbus disaster
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:00 pm

Boeing has cultivated enemies for the last several year. More or less: we don't need engineers and designers, we don't need mechanics, we don't need no friggin FAA, we don't need to support infrastructure and education where our biggest production takes place (let every other company pay taxes). What happens eventually is that Boeing has few friends. While this is only part of the problem in 2020 it still is a significant part of the problem.
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