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crimsonchin
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:15 pm

Unless Boeing are deep into the feasibility studies for the NMA and have somehow done so without anyone knowing (remember this will have to be different from the NMA Boeing had allegedly been studying which got discarded sometime this year) there is almost no chance Boeing is offering a new airplane next year.
 
Noshow
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:24 pm

Rushing things again would be the wrong thing to do now.
Define what it will be and define some credible timeline that’s it.

The problem with new narrowbodies is you’d need another engine generation to justify investments in all new CFRP factories and aircraft design. One generation above those neos. And they got the latest engines already.
 
Bongodog49
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:38 pm

Noshow wrote:
Rushing things again would be the wrong thing to do now.
Define what it will be and define some credible timeline that’s it.

The problem with new narrowbodies is you’d need another engine generation to justify investments in all new CFRP factories and aircraft design. One generation above those neos. And they got the latest engines already.


Not sure why new engines are a pre requisite to make a new narrowbody ?

Presently we have one manufacturer with a product with major parts designed 50 years ago for an expected production rate of around 50/year now aiming for 500/year
Their competitor set out 20 years later to produce slightly more per year, but with a production process completely based around national pride, resulting in major assemblies being flown around between sites and the A320 series being produced on multiple lines.

I've been out of manufacturing for a good number of years now, but cannot conceive that technology and processes haven't moved on sufficiently to enable major savings to be possible for both major manufacturers if they design for todays volume, using modern materials and techniques.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:12 pm

The 320/737 have been optimized to an astounding degree, and that includes optimal manufacturing. I see particularly the 321 and MAX8 as having a long life, well into the 2030s.
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KarlB737
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:22 pm

Antaras wrote:

- Recertify the MAXs and convince everyone that the MAXs will be safe.......


This will be the toughest nut to crack. The enormous risk that will be present if certification is actually accomplished. That risk being another incident with the aircraft. Everyone involved will be on edge. Add to that for the airlines involved will experience non-stop answering of questions by fliers whether their flight is a MAX or not. If they can get over this hump after a few months of "success" with the MAX maybe in 2021 they can regroup and quietly create a 737 MAX replacement from a clean sheet to gradually divorce themselves from this nightmare.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:33 pm

ER757 wrote:
To those who say scrap the Max and/or move HQ back to Washington - three words for you: Not. Gonna. Happen.

Only time will tell.

The Max unfortunately has become a disgrace for Boeing. Better abandon it and start all over with a new design.

ER757 wrote:
What I wish they would do, but see above - is change the name of the 737 Max - just call it the 737-8, 737-9, etc.

Boeing should bring back the customer codes!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:40 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
Boeing should bring back the customer codes!


Yeah, that will fix all their issues! :faint:

In this day and age, with all the information that's available online, customer codes bring nothing to the party.
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MartijnNL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:41 pm

BlueberryWheats wrote:
TC957 wrote:
Here in the UK, every move related to the MAX is covered by the news channels with a reminder of the two crashes they've had

You must live in a different UK than I do, or watch niche, aviation orientated news channels.

I'm sure he's talking BBC and other mainstream media here.

In the Netherlands all media, including non aviation orientated channels, are always mentioning the two crashes each time the Max makes the news.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:06 pm

JJ777 wrote:
Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.

No one wants Boeing to go bust. We just want to see the Max disappear. It's bad enough that software problems can cause airplane crashes. The world doesn't need an upgraded aircraft, it needs a completely new design.

JJ777 wrote:
Not only it won't, it'll be a bigger and better company after the MAX saga comes to an end, and it will happen sooner than some people here think. By June 2020 many people around the World will be flying MAXes again.

And many people will be staying away from the type, including me, if it will fly by that time. Why do you think the MAX will fly in June? What will you say when it is still grounded in June? The MAX will fly in July, August, September, soon?
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:22 pm

scbriml wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
Boeing should bring back the customer codes!

Yeah, that will fix all their issues! :faint:

In this day and age, with all the information that's available online, customer codes bring nothing to the party.

Customer codes bring useful information to autistic aviation enthusiasts like me. And they look nice in fleet lists. Nowadays I always have a feeling something is missing.

Customer codes belong(ed) to Boeing like their HQ did to Washington State. Luckily this website doesn't always follow the 'rules' of Boeing. It feels good to look at photos of Lufthansa planes described as Boeing 747-830's.

More than enough is changing in the world. It would be nice to have some things stay the same.
 
spacecookie
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:37 pm

Nope, not Boeing comeback in 2020 they must work hard to make a comeback this decade...

I was a total Boeing fanboy but I think we all agree on one thing:
The a320-321(with all its variations) is just in another league right now ... Boeing does not have anything to respond to it.
 
Interested
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:59 pm

Long road back for them. I'm going to predict Max doesn't fly again.
 
flash330
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:45 pm

JJ777 wrote:
Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.

Not only it won't, it'll be a bigger and better company after the MAX saga comes to an end, and it will happen sooner than some people here think. By June 2020 many people around the World will be flying MAXes again.


Lets be honest here, if this was a company from an industry that wasn't part of your hobby would you be so keen on them surviving?

Speaking in general, I think most people will agree that a company that puts profit and shareholders above the safety of its customers shouldn't be in business.
 
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:12 am

This has nothing to do with bashing Boeing. People underestimate the complexity of 737 MAX re-certification.

The grounding since 9 months, JATR report and the firing of the chairman/CEO gives an indication.

No longer are Boeing dealing with an authority that can be pressured by congress into adjusting the rules or granting exemptions.

I expect this will take time & changes.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:47 am

keesje wrote:
This has nothing to do with bashing Boeing. People underestimate the complexity of 737 MAX re-certification.

The grounding since 9 months, JATR report and the firing of the chairman/CEO gives an indication.

No longer are Boeing dealing with an authority that can be pressured by congress into adjusting the rules or granting exemptions.

I expect this will take time & changes.


I think the major roadblock to getting the MAX back in the air will be if 737NG pilots can be certified in the MAX with just differences training, or if MAX pilots will have to be fully qualified in a MAX simulator.
 
N126DL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:03 am

MartijnNL wrote:
Customer codes bring useful information to autistic aviation enthusiasts like me.
[/quote][/quote]

I’m glad I’m not the only autistic avgeek that found the customer codes useful.
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kalvado
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:33 am

Will Boeing make a great comeback at all?
I expect Boeing will become the biggest player in the market. Biggest player in the second league - taking over Bombardier spot.
IBM may be a precedent. They also went through turbulent times and survived - as a shadow of former The IBM.
 
Jetty
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:34 am

MartijnNL wrote:
JJ777 wrote:
Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.

No one wants Boeing to go bust. We just want to see the Max disappear. It's bad enough that software problems can cause airplane crashes. The world doesn't need an upgraded aircraft, it needs a completely new design.

Exactly. The monster from Seattle needs to go. The whole concept was immoral maximizing profit and minimizing environmental and safety gains. Less killer planes and more innovation is what people expect from Boeing going forward.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:15 am

Once the MAX is back in the air, the "great come back" will be complete. That's the only thing holding them down from another great year.

MartijnNL wrote:
We just want to see the Max disappear.


Why?

MartijnNL wrote:
No one wants Boeing to go bust. We just want to see the Max disappear. It's bad enough that software problems can cause airplane crashes. The world doesn't need an upgraded aircraft, it needs a completely new design.


So let's straighten this out. You don't want Boeing to go bust, but you do want to take a big step towards that possibility, one that in the long-run may indeed bust the company. It's nice to have your cake and eat it too, but that isn't reality here. You can take a nibble, but polishing off the whole cake is not a sensible wish. You're also implying that the NEO should never have been built either, as it is also an upgraded aircraft. What do have against the A320?

MartijnNL wrote:
And many people will be staying away from the type, including me, if it will fly by that time.


I'll appreciate the open seat next to me.

flash330 wrote:
Speaking in general, I think most people will agree that a company that puts profit and shareholders above the safety of its customers shouldn't be in business.


Well, there goes every aircraft manufacturer in existence. Shut them all down.
 
jomur
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:13 am

Lingon wrote:
The 737 is Boeing's bread and butter and they have thousands of them on their order books. Of course the priority number one is to get it flying again, they must do it and they will do it. Scrapping the 737 is no option, it's like suggesting ripping out the heart of the body. They will make a come back but they have been wounded and that will affect the willingness to take risks with new projects. The 777-X is icing on the 737 cake, not as important.

I think they will do great when they can start deliveries of the MAX again. If that can be soon enough, 2020 could be a good year. If not, 2020 won't be particularly stellar..

Everything boils down to the MAX's reentry in service.


Sometimes replacing the heart is the only way to save the patient...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:18 am

N126DL wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
Customer codes bring useful information to autistic aviation enthusiasts like me.


I’m glad I’m not the only autistic avgeek that found the customer codes useful.


What information does a customer code give you that cannot be found elsewhere online these days?

MSPNWA wrote:
Once the MAX is back in the air, the "great come back" will be complete. That's the only thing holding them down from another great year.


So Boeing has no other issues than the MAX being grounded? CEO resigns, top lawyer retires. Incriminating documents turned over. Nothing to see here...
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MSPNWA
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:12 am

scbriml wrote:
So Boeing has no other issues than the MAX being grounded? CEO resigns, top lawyer retires. Incriminating documents turned over. Nothing to see here...


So the standard for a company is to not have any issues? Well, Airbus won't have a great 2020. Boeing of course won't either. Etc. Etc. This thread's question is a non-starter. We can close it down now. . .

Your flip-flopping and limitless hyperbole does not allow for a constructive debate. I'm now getting a chuckle that a new CEO is an issue! I thought the previous one was. Oh well, guess not!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:18 am

MSPNWA wrote:
scbriml wrote:
So Boeing has no other issues than the MAX being grounded? CEO resigns, top lawyer retires. Incriminating documents turned over. Nothing to see here...


So the standard for a company is to not have any issues? Well, Airbus won't have a great 2020. Boeing of course won't either. Etc. Etc. This thread's question is a non-starter. We can close it down now. . .

Your flip-flopping and limitless hyperbole does not allow for a constructive debate. I'm now getting a chuckle that a new CEO is an issue! I thought the previous one was. Oh well, guess not!


The new CEO is hardly new, but a long time bord member having been part of the decisions leading to Boeing's troubles.

The MAX is of course Boeing's number one trouble. Number two I would call the vanishing 787 backlog, as orders do not match production. Number three will be the 777X. The test flights are delayed and will lead to delayed EIS and the order book is shrinking rather than acquiring new customers.
 
uta999
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:34 am

Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.
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musman9853
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:34 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
My view is that Boeing should cut their losses in 2020 and scrap the MAX programme and, sadly, the frames built. Public confidence in the aircraft is so low it'll take more than a few clever marketing tricks for it to become an aircraft accepted by the flying public. Then get on with the new NMA.
And before anyone says your average airline passenger doesn't care what plane they fly on, yes they do ! Here in the UK, every move related to the MAX is covered by the news channels with a reminder of the two crashes they've had. I work in the travel industry and like my colleagues, our clients are worried we may be booking them on a MAX in future.


Strongly agree, big fan of BBC World News here in Canada and Talking Business has a story on the MAX almost daily ( it seems ) as do other BBC programmes, seems the saga really has traction in the UK.

Same is true in Canada, to a degree, as many of the ET 302 victims were Canadian.



Several 737s went down due to rudder issues. Remind me again how much the traveling public cared about those?
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Momo1435
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:02 pm

It should be a year of transition where it doesn't matter if it's a great year or not. Most inportant is that the new leadership should get a grip on the MAX situation.

Establishing a new relationship with the FAA and let the engineers do their job to get the MAX back in the air. And make sure that the 777X will not catch any further delays. Don't expect anything else then this, no new programs, no other big changes.
 
mig17
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:06 pm

2019 was annus horribilis for Boeing, but it is also the beginning of a long and difficult period to come back from the bad place they are now :
- 737 MAX is eating a lot of Boeing ressources and it's futur is still unclear
- MoM as no market with the A321NEO/LR/XLR already there and for now Boeing focus is elsewhere
- 777-X has both technical and commercial issus right now, not sure it has a bright futur either
- 787 will need costly and ressource consuming new developpement soon to keep up selling
- A new narrowbody is needed fast with the MAX uncertainety and Airbus having taken the A220 as a potentiel new plateform to work with

So yes, Boeing will work through 2020 to resolve some of the ungoing crisis and hopefully they will made some new announcement to prepare the futur, but a real come back if there is ever one will be in the 2nd part of the 2020s now.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:08 pm

To echo Churchill, getting the 737 returned to service will not be the end of the beginning, but the beginning of the end. And like the allies, Boeing has a huge amount of resources. All of those priorities mentioned by the OP need to be addressed in 2020, perhaps not resolved, but addressed and with a clear path to resolution.
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:09 pm

uta999 wrote:
Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.

May I have whatever you are smoking on? The 787 production is nowhere near the end of production. A rate reduction to 12 planes per month is still more than that of the competitor's offering.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:29 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.

May I have whatever you are smoking on? The 787 production is nowhere near the end of production. A rate reduction to 12 planes per month is still more than that of the competitor's offering.


The point (I guess) is not the lack of capacity to deliver, but rather dearth of orders. Even at reduced rate of 12 planes per month, Boeing will burn through the current 787 order book in less than four years. It's generally understood that long-lead items need to be ordered ~two years from delivery. So unless new orders start marching in, or further rate cuts are announced, two years from now is the alarm bell for 787 supply chain wind-down.
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:38 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.

May I have whatever you are smoking on? The 787 production is nowhere near the end of production. A rate reduction to 12 planes per month is still more than that of the competitor's offering.


I think he is referencing the 787 backlog (~550), at current production rates (144 per year). That starts wringing soon for long lead items, production planning etc. A beefed up 787-10 seems wise IMO, with A350 (backlog 600, 6 yrs) picking up 777 operators and the heavy 777-8 being deferred.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... deliveries
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:39 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.

May I have whatever you are smoking on? The 787 production is nowhere near the end of production. A rate reduction to 12 planes per month is still more than that of the competitor's offering.


The point (I guess) is not the lack of capacity to deliver, but rather dearth of orders. Even at reduced rate of 12 planes per month, Boeing will burn through the current 787 order book in less than four years. It's generally understood that long-lead items need to be ordered ~two years from delivery. So unless new orders start marching in, or further rate cuts are announced, two years from now is the alarm bell for 787 supply chain wind-down.

Rate cuts will happen before production ends, and this is before considering options being exercised. Look at the 767 and where the rate cuts has brought it, still in production and in fact had an increase to 3 per month. Plus the A330 replacement market, which is more than likely to be taken up by Boeing (at a ratio similar to current 787:A330neo numbers).

A lot of a) gloom and doom and b) people who have always wanted (ie with or without Max crisis) to see Boeing gone (ie the usual suspects on anet) in this thread.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:50 pm

My opinion is that Boeing got luckier than it could be, that this occurred during a slump, which gives them or their customers (or even the market, ie airline bankruptcies) a chance to clear out excess orders. So when they get back to normalcy, it will be a clean slate which brings them closer to actual market conditions than their competitor, ie lesser dubious orders on the book than before.

As for aircraft programs, I believe that if the NMA is to be launched, it will be done this year. No reason to delay the launch although EIS could be a year later to allow for the lost engineering hours diverted to Max. Independently, the earliest the NSA would be launched, in my opinion, will be at least 3 years away, with or without the NMA, which brings it in line with a late 2020s EIS that analysts have predicted.
 
vegas005
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:54 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
vegas005 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
When was that officially determined?

I watched a youtube with 737 pilots discussing MCAS. They clearly stated MCAS was designed to make the MAX fly like all the other 737s so no pilot certification was needed. They claimed the MCAS could be removed and pilots would need to certify on the plane....MCAS is not needed to fly the 737 MAX as long as the pilots have been trained on the MAX... I'll try and find the video...

Spare yourself the search, it's not needed.

The operative word is highlighted for emphasis.



That's your opinion ...doesn't make it right.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:02 pm

2020 will be a landmark year for Boeing.

The problem as I see it is that they're going to be out of allies, other than a.net fanboys.

- The airlines will be suing for compensation, Boeing needs to keep them happy or loose customers & risk ntu frames.
- The supply chain will be suing for compensation, Boeing can't properly restart production with that being resolved.
- The regulators know Boeing has pushed grandfather rights beyond safe limits (clearly accidentally), so Boeing's competence won't be trusted by them.
- Financiers know way too much cash is tied up in stock grounded 737s sat on the ground, which strains liquidity and puts up finance costs.

They will need to get each and every stakeholder group on side to recover fully, if anyone isn't then Boeing will be hindered.

Meanwhile, the A321XLR has taken middle of the market for many blue chip customers like American, United and IAG. With that chunk gone the NMA stops looking sensible because too much of the market has gone. Arguably the next step needs to be an all new narrowbody, as their 737 strategy has gone badly wrong. That new aircraft will be difficult to enable with airlines, supply chain, financiers and regulators wary of Boeing's competence.

On the bright side, aircraft manufacture is basically a duopoly. Airbus don't have the manufacturing capacity to replace Boeing. When/if the Chinese finally make a decent narrowbody airliner, then all bets are off as their airlines will be forced to buy them, freeing up a lot of Airbus and Boeing manufacturing capacity. Until then, both Airbus and Boeing can screw up to limited consequences.
 
JJ777
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:19 pm

Jetty wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
JJ777 wrote:
Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.

No one wants Boeing to go bust. We just want to see the Max disappear. It's bad enough that software problems can cause airplane crashes. The world doesn't need an upgraded aircraft, it needs a completely new design.

Exactly. The monster from Seattle needs to go. The whole concept was immoral maximizing profit and minimizing environmental and safety gains. Less killer planes and more innovation is what people expect from Boeing going forward.


And I'm confident that's what will happen. Both Boeing and Airbus have faced tough times before. Boeing will survive the storm, they just need to roll some heads. The lessions learned from the development of the MAX, the 787 and the 777X will be crucial as Boeing develops an all-new 797.
 
TObound
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:58 pm

JJ777 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Not sure, am amazed at how A.net cheers every problem at Boeing. Another A vs B battle (and of course A is far better - B is BAD).

Boeing will take a number of months more to get the MAX RTS, the 777X will have its first flight soon. New programs are shelved until further notice, will come back once there is regular production on all current models again with the MAX backlog cleared back.


Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.


I've gone through lots of threads. The only people I see talking about Boeing going bust are Boeing fanboys whining about others making such assertions.

Boeing is "to big to fail". Their products could kill thousands more with zero existential consequences. As part of a global duopoly, and a major part of the American industrial base, there's zero chance of Boeing going under. They could (if they wanted to) produce second rate products and still have 40% global market share. Heck, Boeing could stop making commercial airliners and still be one of the largest and most profitable corporations in America. It's why BA is a great stock to own. K Street makes sure Washington helps Boeing do well for Wall Street.

In 2020, the MAX will fly again. The 777X will get certified and the cash flow will be back. Boeing stock will top $450.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:50 pm

vegas005 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
vegas005 wrote:
I watched a youtube with 737 pilots discussing MCAS. They clearly stated MCAS was designed to make the MAX fly like all the other 737s so no pilot certification was needed. They claimed the MCAS could be removed and pilots would need to certify on the plane....MCAS is not needed to fly the 737 MAX as long as the pilots have been trained on the MAX... I'll try and find the video...

Spare yourself the search, it's not needed.

The operative word is highlighted for emphasis.

That's your opinion ...doesn't make it right.

Pilot talk on a video site, not being the equivalent declaration by an official source, is somehow "my opinion"...?

Well, that's certainly an interesting dearth of logic. :scratchchin:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
beechnut
Posts: 937
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:10 pm

TObound wrote:
JJ777 wrote:
Heck, Boeing could stop making commercial airliners and still be one of the largest and most profitable corporations in America. It's why BA is a great stock to own.


Not as far-fetched as one might think. What was good for Lockheed, might end up being good for Boeing. Or they could spin off the commercial aircraft business. I'm not sure how corporate governance is set up at BA, but if the commercial aircraft division were made into a wholly-owned subsidiary, it could technically file chapter 11 while leaving the mother ship intact. And then when those pesky lawsuits and creditors are off their back, spin the division off to some other sucker. Boeing may be too big to fail... but a subsidiary of Boeing, not so much. Maybe Embraer would buy the ashes... (tongue firmly in cheek here). Or Bombardier could have second thoughts about leaving commercial aircraft (tongue even more firmly in cheek...)

Silly musing apart, there are two major hurdles that need to be faced: fixing the MCAS issue; the complication there appears to be the raw aerodynamic behaviour of the aircraft. The fact that this is dragging on would suggest that this is turning out to be a more complex problem than just rewriting a few lines of code. Even with two AOA sensors, a disagree between them causing the protection to fail is far more likely than on the 3-sensor Airbus, meaning that the raw aerodynamics of the aircraft are so much more important. But that's a technical issue and one for which a solution surely exists, though it may turn out to be costly (3d sensor? Aerodynamic tweaks that eat into efficiency?).

The political issue, and the one that may in the end be the final nail in the coffin, is the fact that it is painfully obvious to anyone following this issue that the whole certification process of the MAX was vitiated by the too-cozy relationship between manufacturer and regulator. What other surprises may this vitiated process unveil further down the road? This has resulted in a loss of public trust in both Boeing and the FAA and more specifically, in the MAX. Trust is exceedingly difficult to be regained. Hydraulic system design shortcuts in the DC-10 continued to bite even decades down the road (UA 232). I don't think we want any MAX shortcomings to do the same.

A combination of a too-costly technical solution, and the inability to regain public trust, may end up being the undoing of the MAX, and are reasons why I'm increasingly skeptical that the MAX will ever return into commercial service.

Boeing? In the long run they'll be fine. Scuttling the MAX may be the best thing that ever happened to them if it gets them back to the drawing board to design a single-aisle aircraft that is a generational leap beyond the A32x. And as you said, even without the commercial aircraft division, Boeing would be hugely profitable. However they're going to go through a lot of pain in the next, oh say... 5 years.

Beech
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:35 pm

I am slightly astonished were the idea comes from, that Boeing could drop commercial airplanes and stay big and relevant. One should not look at 2019, but a normal year.

Earnings From Operations in million USD 2018:
Commercial Airplanes 7,879
Defense, Space & Security 1,594
Global Services 2,522
Boeing Capital 79

Earnings From Operations in million USD 2017:
Commercial Airplanes 5,452
Defense, Space & Security 2,193
Global Services 2,246
Boeing Capital 114

The bulk of the earnings comes from commercial airplanes and global services is dependent on commercial airplanes.
Cut commercial airplanes and Boeing becomes a small player.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19299
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:46 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
So the standard for a company is to not have any issues?


Huh? You said getting MAX back in the air means Boeing has a great 2020. It does, but only if you ignore all the other issues like an ostrich.

MSPNWA wrote:
We can close it down now. . .


Any thread with criticism of Boeing seems to upset you.

MSPNWA wrote:
Your flip-flopping and limitless hyperbole does not allow for a constructive debate. I'm now getting a chuckle that a new CEO is an issue! I thought the previous one was. Oh well, guess not!


What flip-flopping? Where did I say anything about the new CEO? :confused:

But anyway, glad you're having a laugh. :lol:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
lhrnue
Posts: 376
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 2:47 pm

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:01 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Not sure, am amazed at how A.net cheers every problem at Boeing. Another A vs B battle (and of course A is far better - B is BAD).


The only thing which is grounded forever is the slogan "If it ain't boeing i'm not going."
 
jplatts
Posts: 3804
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:46 am

I mentioned in the Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019 discussion thread that Boeing needs to resume production of some additional 737NG planes to address plane shortages at carriers who are adversely affected by the 737 MAX grounding such as AA and WN if Boeing cannot get the 737 MAX re-certified and back in service soon, and that post can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1432067&start=5550#p21890233.

I also mentioned that there would be a resale market for any additional new 737NG planes that get produced to address plane shortages at AA, WN, or other airlines affected by the 737 MAX grounding once the 737 MAX or a newer Boeing narrowbody model is back in service as there are multiple 737NG operators that do not have any 737 MAX planes on order who might be interested in additional used 737NG airplanes.

I do expect Boeing to either make the fixes needed to get the 737 MAX re-certified and back into service or to work on a replacement narrowbody model that will meet the certification requirements of the FAA, EASA, and other aviation regulatory bodies if Boeing temporarily resumes production of the 737NG in order to address plane shortages at AA, WN, and other carriers that are adversely affected by the 737 MAX grounding.

Boeing would be in less of an hurry to get the 737 MAX back in service if Boeing temporarily resumes production of the 737NG as it would give Boeing extra time to properly address the safety issues with the 737 MAX.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2297
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:06 am

jplatts wrote:
I mentioned in the Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019 discussion thread that Boeing needs to resume production of some additional 737NG planes to address plane shortages at carriers who are adversely affected by the 737 MAX grounding such as AA and WN if Boeing cannot get the 737 MAX re-certified and back in service soon, and that post can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1432067&start=5550#p21890233.

I also mentioned that there would be a resale market for any additional new 737NG planes that get produced to address plane shortages at AA, WN, or other airlines affected by the 737 MAX grounding once the 737 MAX or a newer Boeing narrowbody model is back in service as there are multiple 737NG operators that do not have any 737 MAX planes on order who might be interested in additional used 737NG airplanes.

I do expect Boeing to either make the fixes needed to get the 737 MAX re-certified and back into service or to work on a replacement narrowbody model that will meet the certification requirements of the FAA, EASA, and other aviation regulatory bodies if Boeing temporarily resumes production of the 737NG in order to address plane shortages at AA, WN, and other carriers that are adversely affected by the 737 MAX grounding.

Boeing would be in less of an hurry to get the 737 MAX back in service if Boeing temporarily resumes production of the 737NG as it would give Boeing extra time to properly address the safety issues with the 737 MAX.


I am sure CFM56-7B castings and long lead item orders stopped about 2 years ago, with sufficient castings made to cover say 20 additional P-8's and maybe 30 spare engines. The line may have stayed at its normal rate pre-max until it completed the run, then shut down to be converted to Leap engine production. At the initial stand down it might of taken a year to return to production, by now it would be years. Return of the NG is just not pratical
 
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SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 2348
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:39 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
I am sure CFM56-7B castings and long lead item orders stopped about 2 years ago, with sufficient castings made to cover say 20 additional P-8's and maybe 30 spare engines. The line may have stayed at its normal rate pre-max until it completed the run, then shut down to be converted to Leap engine production. At the initial stand down it might of taken a year to return to production, by now it would be years. Return of the NG is just not pratical

Unless you've got hard evidence for your feelings, I'm going to disagree.
Both the NG and the CFM56-7B are alive and well.

Certainly, the CFM56 production line is NOT shut down completely. Not yet anyways.

And any company producing parts (albeit at low level) will be perfectly happy to ramp up production in lieu of LEAP engines that are currently not required until MAX production resumes.
CFM56 production will wind down as the final 737NG engine was delivered in 2019 and the last A320ceo engine will be delivered in May 2020.
Production will continue at low levels for military 737s and spare engines and will conclude around 2024

If your total of castings and long lead items is to be believed, 70 engines over the next four years is the output of one man in his garden shed. Except with thousands of NGs in service, I can see them needing more than that.
And the requirement for P-8s is surely well in excess of "20". Are you sure you are not depressing the numbers?

The RAF order for P-8s is for nine P-8s and support infrastructure; spread across three production lots over a ten-year period (!), commencing in 2019. To date I only know of one delivered, and one more fitted with engines at Seattle. :o
Norway signed a contract for five P-8As, to be delivered between 2022 and 2023
New Zealand has four on order, South Korea six, and Australia is looking for three more to bring it up to strength. How many of these have been built so far, and how many CFM56 engines are ready assembled for the remainder?
And then there is the US Navy, still somewhat short of it's full contingent when I last checked.
Not to mention potential additional orders.

https://www.flightglobal.com/dubai-air- ... 93.article
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
Mightyflyer86
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:50 pm

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:14 am

vegas005 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
blueflyer wrote:
recall that the MCAS or something equivalent is essential to recertifying the Max. No MCAS, no Max. That simple.

When was that officially determined?



I watched a youtube with 737 pilots discussing MCAS. They clearly stated MCAS was designed to make the MAX fly like all the other 737s so no pilot certification was needed. They claimed the MCAS could be removed and pilots would need to certify on the plane....MCAS is not needed to fly the 737 MAX as long as the pilots have been trained on the MAX... I'll try and find the video...


The 737NG did not have a tendency to go nose up and enter a stall thus such design is “aerodynamically stable“. from a stall recovery standpoint. The same can’t be said about the MAX so Boeing had to come up with a band aid solution for the aerodynamic instability so they created MCAS. As you can see the band aid solution (MCAS) did not have redundancy. So in a way yes, MCAS makes the MAX behave like an aerodynamically stable airplane like the 737NG but removing it will make the 737MAX a very dangerous airplane (it already is a dangerous airplane with a single point of failure MCAS).
 
HomeSlice
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:28 am

"So in a way yes, MCAS makes the MAX behave like an aerodynamically stable airplane like the 737NG but removing it will make the 737MAX a very dangerous airplane (it already is a dangerous airplane with a single point of failure MCAS)".

I am guessing you are an engineer. Can you provide some facts to back your statement?
 
marcelh
Posts: 1102
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:23 am

JJ777 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Not sure, am amazed at how A.net cheers every problem at Boeing. Another A vs B battle (and of course A is far better - B is BAD).

Boeing will take a number of months more to get the MAX RTS, the 777X will have its first flight soon. New programs are shelved until further notice, will come back once there is regular production on all current models again with the MAX backlog cleared back.


Yeah. It's bizarre to see just how many people here want Boeing to go bust.

Not only it won't, it'll be a bigger and better company after the MAX saga comes to an end, and it will happen sooner than some people here think. By June 2020 many people around the World will be flying MAXes again.

There must be another version of A.net where you are reading that a lot of people want to see Boeing to go bust. I really don’t read it that much on this version.
And with just 2 days left in 2019, we still don’t know when the first MAX will resume revenue flights.

You are also stating “bigger and better” which shows the problem of the mindset of the Boeing company. They should have placed quality first (“better”) instead of “bigger”. It would probably saved a lot of lives and some $$...
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 999
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:37 am

Mightyflyer86 wrote:
So in a way yes, MCAS makes the MAX behave like an aerodynamically stable airplane like the 737NG but removing it will make the 737MAX a very dangerous airplane (it already is a dangerous airplane with a single point of failure MCAS).

HomeSlice wrote:
I am guessing you are an engineer. Can you provide some facts to back your statement?

This has to be a joke, right?

The big problem of the MAX has been in the news almost a year now. What facts do you need? Didn't you follow the news stories, the threads on this website? I thought it was common knowledge that the MAX is unsafe. That's why it is grounded worldwide.

Do you want an in-depth technical explanation? Haven't those reports been available for some time now?
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 999
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:45 am

scbriml wrote:
What information does a customer code give you that cannot be found elsewhere online these days?

Probably nothing. But having them all together in a book with airline fleet lists gave you all the information instantly. It saved you countless internet searches. Removing customer codes meant taking away some satisfaction from my hobby.

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