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n729pa
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:45 am

Wonder if the MAX will require a bit of rebranding? Majority of people who fly will not be able to identify one from a previous version or indeed an Airbus, but they will have heard the news and media coverage. The MAX name whether you like it or not, is tarnished in the eyes of the public. Granted the DC10 was in a similar position but that was in a different era before mass media and stuff like that. Consumer confidence might require this. At some point another MAX will have an incident and the headlines will scream here we go again etc etc., we know how things are. A rebranding allows for a gentle reintroduction and time for the plane to re-establish itself as the workhorse it was meant to be. 95% of the flying public won't even notice. Just a thought.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:51 am

n729pa wrote:
Wonder if the MAX will require a bit of rebranding? Majority of people who fly will not be able to identify one from a previous version or indeed an Airbus, but they will have heard the news and media coverage. The MAX name whether you like it or not, is tarnished in the eyes of the public. Granted the DC10 was in a similar position but that was in a different era before mass media and stuff like that. Consumer confidence might require this. At some point another MAX will have an incident and the headlines will scream here we go again etc etc., we know how things are. A rebranding allows for a gentle reintroduction and time for the plane to re-establish itself as the workhorse it was meant to be. 95% of the flying public won't even notice. Just a thought.


I assume in this area of instant communication the rebranding would not go unnoticed.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:58 pm

Can we put the MCAS discussion in the Max thread?
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:39 pm

I think 2020 will be too soon for Boeing to make a glorious comeback.
The 737MAX needs to be decertified, or killed off. If it’s killed off a decision needs to be taken on restarting NG production before a clean-sheet narrowbody can be developed. Right now the engine tech Isn’t advanced enough to make the development of a new NB worthwhile. Both airbus and Boeing came to this conclusion with the NEO and MAX. For Boeing it makes sense to try to get the MAX back in the air while engine makers develop new generations of engine in this class.
For sure the MAX will have a shorter shelf life than expected and Boeing will miss a number of replacements, which may push Boeing to make sub-optimal decisions about what to do in the 737/757/767 space. Look at United, their A321XLR purchase makes them taking NSA/MoM less likely in the medium term and pushes manufacturers to focus on the 767 replacement at a time when Boeing’s volume seller is off the market. Could Airbus re-examine the A310/300 as the basis for MoM? With the volume of orders for the A22x, A32x and A35x it would seem the logical space to explore. They have the cash and engineering resources to do it.

Until the MAX plan is clear, it will be very difficult for Boeing to look past that.
 
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ER757
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:12 pm

uta999 wrote:
Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.

I must have missed the announcement that the 777X was grounded due to grandfathering issues. Can you enlighten me?
 
Mightyflyer86
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:15 pm

ER757 wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Within two years, Boeing will have no new planes to build or deliver if nothing changes. The MAX and the 777-X both grounded due to grandfathering issues, and the 787 reaching the end of current production.

I must have missed the announcement that the 777X was grounded due to grandfathering issues. Can you enlighten me?



LOL!!! The 777X test has been blown out of proportion.

It has not even flown yet and it has not been grounded. As far as we are concerned it does not have any of the ground clearance issues that the 737 MAX had that “forced” Boeing to mess with engine placement thus creating the need for MCAS.

Until the 777X is certified we should not be speculating, now because of the strained Boeing/FAA relationship, it will certainly get a lot more scrutiny from regulators around the globe.
 
n729pa
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
n729pa wrote:
Wonder if the MAX will require a bit of rebranding? Majority of people who fly will not be able to identify one from a previous version or indeed an Airbus, but they will have heard the news and media coverage. The MAX name whether you like it or not, is tarnished in the eyes of the public. Granted the DC10 was in a similar position but that was in a different era before mass media and stuff like that. Consumer confidence might require this. At some point another MAX will have an incident and the headlines will scream here we go again etc etc., we know how things are. A rebranding allows for a gentle reintroduction and time for the plane to re-establish itself as the workhorse it was meant to be. 95% of the flying public won't even notice. Just a thought.


I assume in this area of instant communication the rebranding would not go unnoticed.


...only if you know these things and are actively looking for it. Don't forget MOST passengers are not aeroplane geeks so will not know these kind of things, anymore that you or I would pay attention to the type of taxi we get in or bus we board. Every one is aware of the MAX being a problem even if they don't know or understand why.
 
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:50 pm

Boeing should hire some Apple communication specialists. They are the masters of mass suppression of negative social media messages, critisism, perception management of Apple products. (This post will pop up on a screen within a few minutes, be evaluated, me identified, tagged, etc). They could learn a lot.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
N649DL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:14 am

Definitely not in 2020. They just had critical management turnover and haven't sort out the MAX issues. There aren't any products on the horizon for the brand name to recover either. They proved to the public that they are a tone deaf and corrupt organization. Nobody likes that stuff anymore as people can easily see through it. Boeing really screwed up hard this time.

And count me in for never flying on the MAX ever. I still haven't stepped onto a Dreamliner either because those battery leak issues back in the day were terrifying.
 
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:15 am

N649DL wrote:
Definitely not in 2020. They just had critical management turnover and haven't sort out the MAX issues. There aren't any products on the horizon for the brand name to recover either. They proved to the public that they are a tone deaf and corrupt organization. Nobody likes that stuff anymore as people can easily see through it. Boeing really screwed up hard this time.

And count me in for never flying on the MAX ever. I still haven't stepped onto a Dreamliner either because those battery leak issues back in the day were terrifying.


They were, specially because Boeing stood shoulder to shoulder with FAA and DoT declaring the 787 was safe to fly during a specially organized press conference Jan 15, 2013

Image
https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-transpor ... gs-new-787, https://www.cnbc.com/id/100373209, https://phys.org/news/2013-01-faa-boein ... -safe.html

The Dreamliner was grounded by the Japanese authorities, 2 days later after a second battery failure. FAA folllowed. Looks familiar?

Boeing PR managed to out-communicate this ambarrasing incident. FAA and DoT stayed quiet..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
N649DL
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:52 pm

keesje wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Definitely not in 2020. They just had critical management turnover and haven't sort out the MAX issues. There aren't any products on the horizon for the brand name to recover either. They proved to the public that they are a tone deaf and corrupt organization. Nobody likes that stuff anymore as people can easily see through it. Boeing really screwed up hard this time.

And count me in for never flying on the MAX ever. I still haven't stepped onto a Dreamliner either because those battery leak issues back in the day were terrifying.


They were, specially because Boeing stood shoulder to shoulder with FAA and DoT declaring the 787 was safe to fly during a specially organized press conference Jan 15, 2013

Image
https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-transpor ... gs-new-787, https://www.cnbc.com/id/100373209, https://phys.org/news/2013-01-faa-boein ... -safe.html

The Dreamliner was grounded by the Japanese authorities, 2 days later after a second battery failure. FAA folllowed. Looks familiar?

Boeing PR managed to out-communicate this ambarrasing incident. FAA and DoT stayed quiet..


Correct. There were also early engine and APU issues on the 787 which led to other types of early investigations as well. According to wiki, Boeing was losing 25 million per 787 delivery in 2015. That's insane, but likely recovered since then because of the popularity of the 787-9 and -10 variants.
 
TC957
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:40 am

musman9853 wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
My view is that Boeing should cut their losses in 2020 and scrap the MAX programme and, sadly, the frames built. Public confidence in the aircraft is so low it'll take more than a few clever marketing tricks for it to become an aircraft accepted by the flying public. Then get on with the new NMA.
And before anyone says your average airline passenger doesn't care what plane they fly on, yes they do ! Here in the UK, every move related to the MAX is covered by the news channels with a reminder of the two crashes they've had. I work in the travel industry and like my colleagues, our clients are worried we may be booking them on a MAX in future.


Strongly agree, big fan of BBC World News here in Canada and Talking Business has a story on the MAX almost daily ( it seems ) as do other BBC programmes, seems the saga really has traction in the UK.

Same is true in Canada, to a degree, as many of the ET 302 victims were Canadian.



Several 737s went down due to rudder issues. Remind me again how much the traveling public cared about those?

You're talking a generation ago before social media and instant, mostly negative, news outlets. Air accidents these days are fortunately a rarity compared to back then as you well know, so the few that do occur make more news headlines than back then. So when brand new airliners fall out of the sky in similar circumstances, shit will stick longer than it did historically.
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:15 am

Make Boeing Great Again! 2020
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:52 pm

 
highflier92660
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:49 pm

It's my hope that the ghost of Joe Sutter and what's left of Boeing's elite aeronautical engineering brain trust are designing a clean-sheet replacement for the Boeing 737. And will receive a go-ahead.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:54 pm

crjflyboy wrote:

Well I can see how people might like it, I don’t mind it myself, but that would be a horrible idea. Sorry to say that, but that’s the reality. Bringing back another 1960s design, but one that has had less done to it and expect it to compete with the A220 would have it just fall flat in its face. Delta has already retired the MD-80s and MD-90s sooner than they thought they would which definitely isn’t a good thing for the 717 fleet. I think the T-tail jets really are a thing of the past.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:56 pm

highflier92660 wrote:
It's my hope that the ghost of Joe Sutter and what's left of Boeing's elite aeronautical engineering brain trust are designing a clean-sheet replacement for the Boeing 737. And will receive a go-ahead.


That would take a minimum of 3 years to design and successfully certify a brand new design
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:10 pm

767333ER wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:

Well I can see how people might like it, I don’t mind it myself, but that would be a horrible idea. Sorry to say that, but that’s the reality. Bringing back another 1960s design, but one that has had less done to it and expect it to compete with the A220 would have it just fall flat in its face. Delta has already retired the MD-80s and MD-90s sooner than they thought they would which definitely isn’t a good thing for the 717 fleet. I think the T-tail jets really are a thing of the past.


I am not aware of any new biz jet that is not a T-Tail design, apparently they do not appear to be a thing of the past.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:13 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
767333ER wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:

Well I can see how people might like it, I don’t mind it myself, but that would be a horrible idea. Sorry to say that, but that’s the reality. Bringing back another 1960s design, but one that has had less done to it and expect it to compete with the A220 would have it just fall flat in its face. Delta has already retired the MD-80s and MD-90s sooner than they thought they would which definitely isn’t a good thing for the 717 fleet. I think the T-tail jets really are a thing of the past.


I am not aware of any new biz jet that is not a T-Tail design, apparently they do not appear to be a thing of the past.

My brain before coffee. I meant to say large commercial jets and I thought about typing that up but I didn’t. Corporate jets are a bit different, but when you make a jet that small the T-tail makes more sense. For anything CRJ-700 or bigger it’s pointless. The CRJ will probably be the last large scale commercial jet produced for a while (it’s demise is coming soon) until some futuristic design comes out that just happens to use that again.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
beaconinbound
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:20 pm

Assessing all communications leaving Boeing properties in a way criminal profilers do, I have to assume that MAX production suspension is just a first step to abandon the MAX program alltogether - while taking care of the stock value. And no, the NSA is not supposed to fill that gap - it just can´t. There may be other options. Wild guesses include production of E2 instead or acquisition of the MC21. The NSA may go hunting in five years time from now. That is just too long to give way to Airbus.

As much as MCAS resembles LSAS on the MD11 in many ways - and the underlying mindset - Boeing currently appears very similar to MDD or Lockheed before they left the civilian market. There is more money to be made with defense contracts. Isn´t it that what stock value is all about??
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:26 pm

keesje wrote:
They were, specially because Boeing stood shoulder to shoulder with FAA and DoT declaring the 787 was safe to fly during a specially organized press conference Jan 15, 2013

The Dreamliner was grounded by the Japanese authorities, 2 days later after a second battery failure. FAA folllowed. Looks familiar?

Boeing PR managed to out-communicate this ambarrasing incident. FAA and DoT stayed quiet..


It was a Japan built and JCAB certified battery system. FAA just used the translated English certificate.

Interesting fact, at that time US Government and Boeing were at odds on building a non-union CHS plant, still DoT Secretary stood by Boeing in solidarity.

Huerta probably damaged FAA's reputation more than any other administrator thru PR events.
All posts are just opinions.
 
art
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:47 pm

tomcat wrote:
Antaras wrote:

- Most importantly, recertify the MAXs and convince everyone that the MAXs will be safe and there will be no more crashes and troubles.



One way to measure this achievement could be with the number of firm orders that Boeing will receive for the MAX in the coming months and its market share vs the competition over the same period of time.


To me it is very difficult. In a duopoly where one player does not have the capacity to supply market demand, is an order for the other player an achievement or just a customer needing to be supplied?
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:48 pm

767333ER wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
767333ER wrote:
Well I can see how people might like it, I don’t mind it myself, but that would be a horrible idea. Sorry to say that, but that’s the reality. Bringing back another 1960s design, but one that has had less done to it and expect it to compete with the A220 would have it just fall flat in its face. Delta has already retired the MD-80s and MD-90s sooner than they thought they would which definitely isn’t a good thing for the 717 fleet. I think the T-tail jets really are a thing of the past.


I am not aware of any new biz jet that is not a T-Tail design, apparently they do not appear to be a thing of the past.

My brain before coffee. I meant to say large commercial jets and I thought about typing that up but I didn’t. Corporate jets are a bit different, but when you make a jet that small the T-tail makes more sense. For anything CRJ-700 or bigger it’s pointless. The CRJ will probably be the last large scale commercial jet produced for a while (it’s demise is coming soon) until some futuristic design comes out that just happens to use that again.


ARJ21 - 700 and ARJ21 - 900

https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraf ... ft_id=1110

Will it finally get FAA certification this year ?

Not sure what you are referring to as a futuristic design ? A plane is tube with wings and a means of thrust to lift it off the ground, keep it flying stable and land it safely.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:48 pm

May I remind you to stay on topic, thanks.
 
TUSDawg23
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:52 pm

Boeing will be fine and it will be a long road to recovery, but hopefully this time they learned their lesson not to cut corners and not play down to stakeholders the design flaws of the MAX. It's about transparency to the public and their customers about what they did and how they plan to fix it. They are cleaning house at the top and can hopefully bring in some competent leadership who can get them back on track and put an emphasis on quality over cost cutting.
 
Flexbird
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:11 pm

Antaras wrote:
Everyone agreed that 2019 is the worst year in the history of Boeing, with the crashes of the high-expectation 737MAX, the safety-culture scandal (at CHS) and the delay of projects, including the development of 777X.
In your opinion, do you think that Boeing will come back and recover its reputation after the crashes, and fly further with a handful number of beautiful projects?

Boeing's bucket list in 2020:
- Bring the 777X-9 and 737MAX10 to the sky.
- Announce the NMA (some clean sheet designs or just modernized-767 models as rumours?) to compete with the hot-selling A321XLRs.
- Most importantly, recertify the MAXs and convince everyone that the MAXs will be safe and there will be no more crashes and troubles.
- Acquire Embraer successfully.

Do you think Boeing will make it?

Just leaving a picture of the MAX10 here for no reasons :D


Can they? Yes. Will they? Who knows.

Re: 737 MAX, I personally think (FWIW) they need to do 2 things:
1. Make sure the design is sound and get the various agencies to certify it so.
2. Replace delivered units with recertified units in order to earn public trust in the 737 program again.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:56 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
767333ER wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:

I am not aware of any new biz jet that is not a T-Tail design, apparently they do not appear to be a thing of the past.

My brain before coffee. I meant to say large commercial jets and I thought about typing that up but I didn’t. Corporate jets are a bit different, but when you make a jet that small the T-tail makes more sense. For anything CRJ-700 or bigger it’s pointless. The CRJ will probably be the last large scale commercial jet produced for a while (it’s demise is coming soon) until some futuristic design comes out that just happens to use that again.


ARJ21 - 700 and ARJ21 - 900

https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraf ... ft_id=1110

Will it finally get FAA certification this year ?

Not sure what you are referring to as a futuristic design ? A plane is tube with wings and a means of thrust to lift it off the ground, keep it flying stable and land it safely.

I’m talking about those BWB and all that. The ARJ is a rehashed DC-9 with engines that are no longer competitive. It is not a serious global player. Nice try though.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:01 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
keesje wrote:
They were, specially because Boeing stood shoulder to shoulder with FAA and DoT declaring the 787 was safe to fly during a specially organized press conference Jan 15, 2013

The Dreamliner was grounded by the Japanese authorities, 2 days later after a second battery failure. FAA folllowed. Looks familiar?

Boeing PR managed to out-communicate this ambarrasing incident. FAA and DoT stayed quiet..


It was a Japan built and JCAB certified battery system. FAA just used the translated English certificate.

Interesting fact, at that time US Government and Boeing were at odds on building a non-union CHS plant, still DoT Secretary stood by Boeing in solidarity.

Huerta probably damaged FAA's reputation more than any other administrator thru PR events.


It was FAA certified and the testing protocol was hashed out between the FAA and Boeing. It is absolut astonishing for me, that there are still people acting, if what the FAA and Boing certified there, made any sense from a security standpoint. People are talking about the danger of big lithium Ion batteries in aeroplanes
In this case, we talk about the biggest, most volatile (chemical structure) battery ever placed in an aeroplane. without a containment.
It is the equivalent of the FAA allowing an air fuel bomb into the electrical and computer cabinet of the 787. Absolute raving madness.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:11 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
It was FAA certified and the testing protocol was hashed out between the FAA and Boeing. It is absolut astonishing for me, that there are still people acting, if what the FAA and Boing certified there, made any sense from a security standpoint. People are talking about the danger of big lithium Ion batteries in aeroplanes
In this case, we talk about the biggest, most volatile (chemical structure) battery ever placed in an aeroplane. without a containment.
It is the equivalent of the FAA allowing an air fuel bomb into the electrical and computer cabinet of the 787. Absolute raving madness.


The protocol among the elite CAAs is to honor each other's certification, just like EASA honors FAA certificate (or) FAA honors EASA certificate. JCAB is part of the elite club and part of the problem.

I don't think FAA and/or Boeing had any clue how 787 battery system worked until NTSB got involved. Even to date, neither GS Yuasa nor JCAB accepted responsibility or gave any reason to the root cause of thermal runway, Boeing just put a sock on it.

The coziness doesn't end with FAA and Boeing, it extends to several members among the elite club. Just FAA and Boeing got caught in the act and not able to power thru like the club members did in the past.

Fun fact: AI 787 batteries were refitted by Boeing engineers and JCAB banned AI 787 for not document test flight post refit. No one gave AI what they were supposed to document.
All posts are just opinions.
 
TWAElite1
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:20 pm

crjflyboy wrote:


Coincidentally, I was reading that Business Insider article earlier today.

I've been a Boeing fan my entire life, but the events of 2019 have me hanging my head in shame. Even if they did "bring back" the 717, they'd no doubt muck it up with whatever modernization they felt needed to be applied.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:34 pm

Good grief. Cancel the MAX? Try to replace it with Russian or Chinese programs? This is an engineering issue and there is an engineering solution. Even if it took two more years to get the MAX back into the air that would be a better outcome for the customers than delivering 737-800s to them instead, let alone substituting some other unproven design.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:01 am

seabosdca wrote:
Good grief. Cancel the MAX? Try to replace it with Russian or Chinese programs? This is an engineering issue and there is an engineering solution. Even if it took two more years to get the MAX back into the air that would be a better outcome for the customers than delivering 737-800s to them instead, let alone substituting some other unproven design.

I have tried to find a good way to understand such posts and have failed.

The best I can come up with is they are examples of emotion triumphing over reason.

To paraphrase something I wrote in the infamous grounding thread, whatever problems that are presented to Boeing as it tries to get the MAX back into service are much smaller than the ones created by dumping the MAX and then figuring out what to do next after they've burned all their partners and customers by dumping the MAX.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:35 am

2020 is just a recovery year.

Hopefully the MAX can return to service and now can work on public relations. If the max flies in 2020 I think that would be the absolute best case scenario. Very unlikely IMHO but best case scanerio for Boeing the max can return to service
 
kalvado
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:25 am

Revelation wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Good grief. Cancel the MAX? Try to replace it with Russian or Chinese programs? This is an engineering issue and there is an engineering solution. Even if it took two more years to get the MAX back into the air that would be a better outcome for the customers than delivering 737-800s to them instead, let alone substituting some other unproven design.

I have tried to find a good way to understand such posts and have failed.

The best I can come up with is they are examples of emotion triumphing over reason.

To paraphrase something I wrote in the infamous grounding thread, whatever problems that are presented to Boeing as it tries to get the MAX back into service are much smaller than the ones created by dumping the MAX and then figuring out what to do next after they've burned all their partners and customers by dumping the MAX.

I would describe this as trying to think out if the box. Thinking inside the box - RTS, next clean sheet, etc - doesn't produce good results.
Boeing problem is not purely engineering, it has financial, logistics, PR, probably HR aspects, and nobody knows if there is a full scale solution, or things will snowball down the road.
Is there a less drastic option to compensate for max problems which doesn't involve mc-21 or similar?
IDK, if 787-3 existed, that could result in some interesting, and possibly advantageous reshape of US air traffic. Offer at cost, upgauge transcons, see if frequency really matters. But I am just dreaming.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:51 am

kalvado wrote:
Is there a less drastic option to compensate for max problems which doesn't involve mc-21 or similar?


I can't believe anyone is seriously thinking that Boeing would have the slightest interest in MC-21, which is a basket-case of a program.

kalvado wrote:
IDK, if 787-3 existed, that could result in some interesting, and possibly advantageous reshape of US air traffic. Offer at cost, upgauge transcons, see if frequency really matters.


It doesn't exist and even if it did, how would Boeing benefit from giving it away?
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Jomar777
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:36 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
Will 2020 be the year that we don’t get a new MAX thread everyday?

Probably not.....but one could hope.


Add also threads about why the A220 is the best plane ever and why it is ideal for all airlines...
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:39 am

scbriml wrote:
...
kalvado wrote:
IDK, if 787-3 existed, that could result in some interesting, and possibly advantageous reshape of US air traffic. Offer at cost, upgauge transcons, see if frequency really matters.


It doesn't exist and even if it did, how would Boeing benefit from giving it away?


If it's about damage control, Boeing's benefit is second priority, compared to supporting customers, no?

Otherwise, cannot disagree with you of MC-21. Boeing buying out this still-born program is beyond they wildest dreams of UAC...
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Noshow
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:15 am

There is no way Boeing is buying into existing russian or chinese programs. They just buy into Embraer to get their cheaper engineering workforce and knowledge access.

I very much hope Boeing is not halting investments or new programs to save money. Quite the opposite is required: They need to invest fast and serious in order to catch up on the narrow body side of business.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:18 am

Noshow wrote:
There is no way Boeing is buying into existing russian or chinese programs. They just buy into Embraer to get their cheaper engineering workforce and knowledge access.

I very much hope Boeing is not halting investments or new programs to save money. Quite the opposite is required: They need to invest fast and serious in order to catch up on the narrow body side of business.



What will the unions in the US say, when Boeing starts moving eng. work to cheaper workforces abroad? Can't see that going down easily. Layoffs for US engineers coming soon?
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kalvado
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:28 am

oschkosch wrote:
Noshow wrote:
There is no way Boeing is buying into existing russian or chinese programs. They just buy into Embraer to get their cheaper engineering workforce and knowledge access.

I very much hope Boeing is not halting investments or new programs to save money. Quite the opposite is required: They need to invest fast and serious in order to catch up on the narrow body side of business.



What will the unions in the US say, when Boeing starts moving eng. work to cheaper workforces abroad? Can't see that going down easily. Layoffs for US engineers coming soon?

One of the reasons people think max ended where it is, is turning engineering into commodity, hiring and firing people as programs progress, no union for white collars. Buying a program with a team of committed engineers elsewhere would boost quality of design, not only workforce headcount.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:47 am

How can they make a great comeback when the best case scenario will still result in:

- An overall program cost which is multiples of what a clean sheet 737 replacement would have cost
- An overall delivery slippage and schedule which is at best similar to what the ramp of a clean sheet 737 replacement would have had
- A technology base 50 years in arrears to what a clean sheet 737 replacement would have delivered to the Boeing portfolio.


There can be no "comeback", right now there is a hole below the waterline and Boeing cannot bail the water out anything like quick enough. When they get the MAX back into the air, that hole just becomes a bit smaller - and whether that means they can bail water our quicker than it comes in remains to be seen in future.

Worst case scenario is that they drop to a ~25% single-aisle market share. Best case scenario is that they secure a ~40% single-aisle marketshare. Even the best case scenario is not acceptable given where Boeing were 15 years ago.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:58 am

Phosphorus wrote:
If it's about damage control, Boeing's benefit is second priority, compared to supporting customers, no?


Boeing exists to make profits. As such, appeasement of shareholders and Wall St takes top priority. Talking about giving away planes that don’t exist is pointless.
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kalvado
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:10 am

scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
If it's about damage control, Boeing's benefit is second priority, compared to supporting customers, no?


Boeing exists to make profits. As such, appeasement of shareholders and Wall St takes top priority. Talking about giving away planes that don’t exist is pointless.

Preserving the company as an asset is pretty much on the same page
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:37 am

seabosdca wrote:
This is an engineering issue and there is an engineering solution.


Absolutely there was/is an engineering solution, but the usual 1% Engineering and 99% PR effort is not cutting it.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:00 pm

Antaras wrote:
Do you think Boeing will make it?


- The new CEO is still a financial guy. No changes here.
- The Board of Directors needs to be replaced too. No changes here.

As long as bean counters run the company, the culture can't be changed. Boeing needs a culture change.

Quote:

WHO TO WATCH: Boeing CEO David Calhoun. If he stays through the 737 MAX’s return to service, declares victory, then hands over to someone with aerospace and/or engineering experience, he'll be remembered as a hero. If he stays on, I suspect he'll be the second coming of Jim McNerney. That would not be a good thing.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... 96646c8a94

I agree with the author.
Good moaning!
 
slider
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:24 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Do you think Boeing will make it?


- The new CEO is still a financial guy. No changes here.
- The Board of Directors needs to be replaced too. No changes here.

As long as bean counters run the company, the culture can't be changed. Boeing needs a culture change.

Quote:

WHO TO WATCH: Boeing CEO David Calhoun. If he stays through the 737 MAX’s return to service, declares victory, then hands over to someone with aerospace and/or engineering experience, he'll be remembered as a hero. If he stays on, I suspect he'll be the second coming of Jim McNerney. That would not be a good thing.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... 96646c8a94

I agree with the author.


THIS. Absolutely spot on--they need new leadership and leadership that will help drive a culture change. A beancounter ain't it. And there needs to be a total revamping of the silo culture. Boeing is a hot jumbled mess right now, from HR to engineering, and all in between at BCAG.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:01 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Will 2020 be the year that we don’t get a new MAX thread everyday?

Probably not.....but one could hope.

Add also threads about why the A220 is the best plane ever and why it is ideal for all airlines...

Add also threads/posts that don't need to use exaggeration to make a point.

oschkosch wrote:
Noshow wrote:
There is no way Boeing is buying into existing russian or chinese programs. They just buy into Embraer to get their cheaper engineering workforce and knowledge access.

I very much hope Boeing is not halting investments or new programs to save money. Quite the opposite is required: They need to invest fast and serious in order to catch up on the narrow body side of business.

What will the unions in the US say, when Boeing starts moving eng. work to cheaper workforces abroad? Can't see that going down easily. Layoffs for US engineers coming soon?

Pretty much the same things Airbus workers are saying as Airbus moves assembly work to TJN and BFM and engineering work to YMX.

They seem to only get excited about work moving between XFW and TLS.

Amiga500 wrote:
How can they make a great comeback when the best case scenario will still result in:

- An overall program cost which is multiples of what a clean sheet 737 replacement would have cost
- An overall delivery slippage and schedule which is at best similar to what the ramp of a clean sheet 737 replacement would have had
- A technology base 50 years in arrears to what a clean sheet 737 replacement would have delivered to the Boeing portfolio.


There can be no "comeback", right now there is a hole below the waterline and Boeing cannot bail the water out anything like quick enough. When they get the MAX back into the air, that hole just becomes a bit smaller - and whether that means they can bail water our quicker than it comes in remains to be seen in future.

Worst case scenario is that they drop to a ~25% single-aisle market share. Best case scenario is that they secure a ~40% single-aisle marketshare. Even the best case scenario is not acceptable given where Boeing were 15 years ago.

Boeing can't undo the MAX decision any more than Airbus can undo the A380 decision.

Even before the crashes it was clear Boeing was not going to defend or chase market share.

I don't think a "great" come back is possible in 2020, but I also don't think some of the dire scenarios people keep conjuring will be true either.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Will 2020 be the year that we don’t get a new MAX thread everyday?

Probably not.....but one could hope.

Add also threads about why the A220 is the best plane ever and why it is ideal for all airlines...

Add also threads/posts that don't need to use exaggeration to make a point.

oschkosch wrote:
Noshow wrote:
There is no way Boeing is buying into existing russian or chinese programs. They just buy into Embraer to get their cheaper engineering workforce and knowledge access.

I very much hope Boeing is not halting investments or new programs to save money. Quite the opposite is required: They need to invest fast and serious in order to catch up on the narrow body side of business.

What will the unions in the US say, when Boeing starts moving eng. work to cheaper workforces abroad? Can't see that going down easily. Layoffs for US engineers coming soon?

Pretty much the same things Airbus workers are saying as Airbus moves assembly work to TJN and BFM and engineering work to YMX.

They seem to only get excited about work moving between XFW and TLS.

Amiga500 wrote:
How can they make a great comeback when the best case scenario will still result in:

- An overall program cost which is multiples of what a clean sheet 737 replacement would have cost
- An overall delivery slippage and schedule which is at best similar to what the ramp of a clean sheet 737 replacement would have had
- A technology base 50 years in arrears to what a clean sheet 737 replacement would have delivered to the Boeing portfolio.


There can be no "comeback", right now there is a hole below the waterline and Boeing cannot bail the water out anything like quick enough. When they get the MAX back into the air, that hole just becomes a bit smaller - and whether that means they can bail water our quicker than it comes in remains to be seen in future.

Worst case scenario is that they drop to a ~25% single-aisle market share. Best case scenario is that they secure a ~40% single-aisle marketshare. Even the best case scenario is not acceptable given where Boeing were 15 years ago.

Boeing can't undo the MAX decision any more than Airbus can undo the A380 decision.

Even before the crashes it was clear Boeing was not going to defend or chase market share.

I don't think a "great" come back is possible in 2020, but I also don't think some of the dire scenarios people keep conjuring will be true either.


In regards to the workers protesting at Airbus. It is difficult to protest when your employer is expanding and hiring where you work. French unions of course protest anyway, just as a principle.
The workforce at XFW is expanding and Airbus has trouble finding enough new workers and engineers to fill all open positions.
It was an additional reason to open the FAL in BFM, easier to find new workers than at home.
I also believe that YMX is hardly in danger in regards to the size of the workforce there.
 
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keesje
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:16 pm

Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

It seems hard to restore quickly what took years to drain.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:22 pm

scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
If it's about damage control, Boeing's benefit is second priority, compared to supporting customers, no?


Boeing exists to make profits. As such, appeasement of shareholders and Wall St takes top priority. Talking about giving away planes that don’t exist is pointless.


I love your choice of word -- "appeasement". Appeasement often works, and sometimes it doesn't -- and when it doesn't, it tends to blow up spectacularly. For example, like political appeasement 1939 in Europe. Sometimes, you have to confront the problem, even though it's not pleasant.

I know, in this world of quarterly beat-the-number game, it's too late to preach prudence in corporate management. Still, if short-term appeasement of shareholders leads to a financial ruin down the road, and the company ends up in bankruptcy court because it runs out of money, that's unfortunate. And customers bring in the money, do they not?
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