Ryanair took delivery of the airline’s last new Boeing 737-800 on 14 Dec 2018 (EI-GXN). With none of the planned MAX deliveries taking place in 2019, Ryanair has continued to withdrawn 11 737s from service during the year:

January: EVD
September: ESY/ESZ
October: ESR/ESW/ESX
November: DAC/DAD/EVY/EVZ
December: DAE

It will be interesting to see the group's fleet size for the summer 2020 (in any case likely to be smaller than summer 2019).

They sold some to a leasor and are leasing them back for the moment.
Laudamotion fleet has increased and taken over some routes.
The remaining planes are working longer and harder than they ever worked before to increase annual passenger numbers which is some feat.

If they had more planes they'd have put a few more airlines out of business in 2019.

Maybe they will lease some frames in the peak season in summer. If that´s the case it will be interesting to see some different airlines doing Ryanair flights and flying to some destinations where they usually don´t fly. (attention spotters).

Maybe even from outside Europe (south hemisphere perhaps) because they will not be only ones needing more capacity.

This, of course, if the Max issue is not solved in the next 4/5 months.

They sold some to a leasor and are leasing them back for the moment.

Yes, but that has no impact on the fleet size.

Laudamotion fleet has increased and taken over some routes.

Do you know by how many? The latest investor report lists 23 A320s (H1 FY2020), and they had at least 19 when Ryanair announced the 100% purchase of Lauda in January 2019.

Airfleets lists 24 active A320, 5 historic A320s and 4 A321. All the historic aircraft are ex-AB and subsequently gone to Eurowings or Brussels Airlines. I imagine these were the wet leases to the LH Group that Lauda were flying. Net increase to the FR group is 13 frames, I think Lauda were flying 11 A320/1 for LH.

and DAD getting new life:

Boeing 737 -8AS 33544 1249 EI-DAD GECAS ferried 27-28dec19 DUB-TSE-PVG for freighter conversion

Skyliner

They also closed several bases in recent months so there is probably less pressure. How many planes did they have stationed in the bases that are now closed? (Spain, Weeze, Skavsta...)

Blerg wrote:

They also closed several bases in recent months so there is probably less pressure. How many planes did they have stationed in the bases that are now closed? (Spain, Weeze, Skavsta...)

I didn’t realise they were closing the Weeze base?

EIBPI wrote:

Blerg wrote:

They also closed several bases in recent months so there is probably less pressure. How many planes did they have stationed in the bases that are now closed? (Spain, Weeze, Skavsta...)

I didn’t realise they were closing the Weeze base?

My bad, the base was downsized, not closed.

DAD is also retired as well.

Despite a shrinking fleet, passenger numbers are still growing:

December traffic grows 9% to 11.2m (Ryanair up 9%, Lauda up 67%).

leghorn wrote:

They sold some to a leasor and are leasing them back for the moment.
Laudamotion fleet has increased and taken over some routes.
The remaining planes are working longer and harder than they ever worked before to increase annual passenger numbers which is some feat.

If they had more planes they'd have put a few more airlines out of business in 2019.

Sorry to go off topic a little but what is the utilisation of the Lauda fleet like? The FR 738s are of course high utilisation with quick turnarounds. Is the same model being applied to Lauda?

Blerg wrote:

They also closed several bases in recent months so there is probably less pressure. How many planes did they have stationed in the bases that are now closed? (Spain, Weeze, Skavsta...)

Skavsta base is not closed yet, but they have four planes based in the summer and two in the winter.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and ... 06500.html

despite reducing the number of planes their traffic numbers are up 9% and their load factor is at 96%
Despite their detractors this is an amazing company in terms of their ability to fill their planes.
They are using the Max grounding to make their company even leaner than it was before.

It's still winter though. Decreasing capacity wasn't that bad for this time of the year. Summer would be the time to put them on the test.

Well, which is more sustainable growth? The Ryanair way or the Norwegian way?

leghorn wrote:

They are using the Max grounding to make their company even leaner than it was before.

Considering Ryanair has always been lean they must be going well into 1980´s Sahel lean by now... and it is kinda hard to see where they can get leaner?

best regards
Thomas

“We were meant to have 58 planes by the summer," Mr O'Leary said in the interview, extracts from which were published today. "That went down to 30, then 20, then ten*and the latest is maybe only five. It's possible we'll only get the first jets in October 2020."”

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0103/11040 ... ir-boeing/

The European airline market is notorious for its summer peaks, much more than other markets. Therefore, it is not a bad thing for a European airline to shrink their fleet in the winter. But, if the MAX issue isn't resolved before the next summer Ryanair is starting to feel the pain even more than last summer.

I don't know how many A320's Lauda will receive between now and the summer months?

leghorn wrote:

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/ryanair-traffic-grows-9-in-december--7206500.html

despite reducing the number of planes their traffic numbers are up 9% and their load factor is at 96%
Despite their detractors this is an amazing company in terms of their ability to fill their planes.
They are using the Max grounding to make their company even leaner than it was before.

Isn’t they yet to actually reduce the fleet? And is was larger i Dec ‘19 vs Dec ‘18?

Ryanair (mainline) is literally downsizing. I posted this on pprune last month :
“Hadn't realised the scale of the transfers away from mainline, especially given the lack of new MAX deliveries :

EI- 369 82%
SP- 32 7%
9H- 50 11%

18% of mainline has been "off-shored" which is way more than I had reckoned. Real pains as Ryanair really matures as a business, opportunities for real growth swapped for opportunities to cut costs further. #classicryanair“

Someone83 wrote:

leghorn wrote:

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/ryanair-traffic-grows-9-in-december--7206500.html

despite reducing the number of planes their traffic numbers are up 9% and their load factor is at 96%
Despite their detractors this is an amazing company in terms of their ability to fill their planes.
They are using the Max grounding to make their company even leaner than it was before.

Isn’t they yet to actually reduce the fleet? And is was larger i Dec ‘19 vs Dec ‘18?

the last 737-800 came in December 2018. They've sold off a few planes since then. They've had to juggle pickle fork planes, They've had to serve new routes which wouldn't have had guaranteed occupancy while having a crunch on airframes and Unions threatening strikes for most of the year up until the start of the Winter season.

About the only additional planes they've got are some Lauda A320s which carry fewer passengers all while trying to return the expensive Air Berlin planes to their owner.
They haven't executed faultlessly but their resilience or doggedness is impressive.

My understanding is Ryanair didn’t want to give the 737-800s back but because of the Max debacle, leasing values for -800s have skyrocketed so the lessor/s have invoked their right to have the planes back at the end of the first term of the agreement. Ryanair even did heavy checks on them, expecting the agreements to roll over automatically. Not so fast...!

cedarjet wrote:

My understanding is Ryanair didn’t want to give the 737-800s back but because of the Max debacle, leasing values for -800s have skyrocketed so the lessor/s have invoked their right to have the planes back at the end of the first term of the agreement. Ryanair even did heavy checks on them, expecting the agreements to roll over automatically. Not so fast...!

Usually at this point the power is with the lessee, who even though rollover terms are documented, will seek to negotiate discounted end of lease payments, and other concessions like an interior refresh or payment holiday, in return for lease continuity.

Surprised Boeing didn't underwrite the increased lease costs, allowing the airline to retain the aircraft, especially as their MAX's not expected to be back in service until at least October 2020. Suggests the lessor is placing the aircraft with a more highly valued Boeing MAX customer, or Ryanair doesn't need the capacity, or is poised to place an order for the A220 and / or A320.

danipawa wrote:

and DAD getting new life:

Boeing 737 -8AS 33544 1249 EI-DAD GECAS ferried 27-28dec19 DUB-TSE-PVG for freighter conversion

Skyliner

I assume its main cargo will be crates and crates of bad jokes!

October 2020?.

As Ryanair is getting MAX200s, which is yet to be certified, it will be significantly later than when the other deliveries resume. So October 2020.

bennett123 wrote:

October 2020?.

Yes I know. Actually O’Leary is saying promises deliveries in time for summer have shrunk from 20 to 10 to 5 to, we might not get them till October. Which btw gives rise to a whole new problem — 737s aren’t supposed to sit for a year or two especially in humid Washington. After (I think it is) 27 days of parking, a heavy check is needed. These birds are going to have problems, I absolutely guarantee it.

cedarjet wrote:

bennett123 wrote:

October 2020?.

Yes I know. Actually O’Leary is saying promises deliveries in time for summer have shrunk from 20 to 10 to 5 to, we might not get them till October. Which btw gives rise to a whole new problem — 737s aren’t supposed to sit for a year or two especially in humid Washington. After (I think it is) 27 days of parking, a heavy check is needed. These birds are going to have problems, I absolutely guarantee it.

What choice does Boeing have right now except to carry-on? Scrapping brand-new aircraft would be a terrible waste, if they can be operated safely. It does seem that Ryanair isn’t planning to have the MAX in any numbers until the Summer 2021 schedule. That’s two years behind where they thought they would be.

It’s a spectacular own-goal for Boeing that FR refleeted Lauda with A320s rather than 737s and will further grow their A320 fleet over time. This all happened because Boeing wanted to please another major customer - Southwest.

You can be sure that Ryanair will be offered an IAG style deal on the MAX variant of their choosing. Maybe the MAX 10 might be the best choice, the extra length might mean it can do without MCAS?

Could Boeing not open the NG line for a year and offer those at a discount as compensation - or is that too difficult now.

I think that this was suggested already.

The view on here was that re starting production of engines etc would not be practical.

Also the economics of the MAX are much better and they will be available this year.

bennett123 wrote:

I think that this was suggested already.

The view on here was that re starting production of engines etc would not be practical.

Also the economics of the MAX are much better and they will be available this year.

I am working to the assumption of them not being available this year - and there are certainly some airlines which think that too.

BrianDromey wrote:

cedarjet wrote:

bennett123 wrote:

October 2020?.

Yes I know. Actually O’Leary is saying promises deliveries in time for summer have shrunk from 20 to 10 to 5 to, we might not get them till October. Which btw gives rise to a whole new problem — 737s aren’t supposed to sit for a year or two especially in humid Washington. After (I think it is) 27 days of parking, a heavy check is needed. These birds are going to have problems, I absolutely guarantee it.

What choice does Boeing have right now except to carry-on? Scrapping brand-new aircraft would be a terrible waste, if they can be operated safely. It does seem that Ryanair isn’t planning to have the MAX in any numbers until the Summer 2021 schedule. That’s two years behind where they thought they would be.

It’s a spectacular own-goal for Boeing that FR refleeted Lauda with A320s rather than 737s and will further grow their A320 fleet over time. This all happened because Boeing wanted to please another major customer - Southwest.

You can be sure that Ryanair will be offered an IAG style deal on the MAX variant of their choosing. Maybe the MAX 10 might be the best choice, the extra length might mean it can do without MCAS?

Yes Ryanair wouldn't be interested in receiving delivery of their Maxes at the end of the 2020 summer schedule.

So it looks like Spring of 2021 is more realistic.

Ryanair would have been a sitting duck if it weren't for Lauda which they are really developping into a parallel LCC.

I doubt that the CFM56 is the real problem for restarting NG production. The CFM56 is still in production in all needed variants, so ramping it up shouldn't be too hard. It would still take months, bit it's possible if they decide quickly.
Ryanair would take any airframe that they can get before the summer.

Couldn't they wet-leased some widebodies for short period during summer peak?

couple of A330-300 or B777-200.

ewt340 wrote:

Couldn't they wet-leased some widebodies for short period during summer peak?

couple of A330-300 or B777-200.

For a typical FR route, how much extra cost to carry 180 pax 1000 miles? I think FR would lose a lot of money on each flight, so what would be the point?

ewt340 wrote:

Couldn't they wet-leased some widebodies for short period during summer peak?

couple of A330-300 or B777-200.

They'd need to completely recast their timetable if they did. Ever tried turning an A330 or 777 in 25 minutes? This is what they do hundreds of times every day with 737s.
Then, there aren't all that many high-frequency routes, instead they have lots of routes that operate once daily or even once a week.
And finally, getting hold of wetleased A330s or 777s isn't all that easy - they have to belong to European registered airlines to qualify for the traffic rights FR has, and there aren't all that many which are sitting around doing nothing, what with covering for Rolls Royce engined 787s being out of service part of the time at several airlines, and the normal summer season contracts with leisure carriers.

ewt340 wrote:

Couldn't they wet-leased some widebodies for short period during summer peak?

couple of A330-300 or B777-200.

They could. But you forget -- Ryanair's goal is not to fly passengers. Their goal is to make money, and they figured out, how to do it, by flying passengers with a large fleet of narrowbodies in ULCC model. With tight turns, minimum amenities, high standardization, high utilization, all that.
If they figured out, how to make money, on their destination and frequency system, with widebodies, they would probably give it a go. The fact that they haven't tried taking widebodies yet -- means they haven't figured it out, yet.
Ryanair is adamant that their transport system is not a network, but a collection of single hops. As a result, they do not HAVE to fly pax between points, if it doesn't make immediate profit.

So, in case of fleet shortage, they'll probably lose some marginal flying, rather than embark on operating widebodies to capture volumes.

Phosphorus wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

Couldn't they wet-leased some widebodies for short period during summer peak?

couple of A330-300 or B777-200.

Ryanair is adamant that their transport system is not a network, but a collection of single hops. As a result, they do not HAVE to fly pax between points, if it doesn't make immediate profit.

So, in case of fleet shortage, they'll probably lose some marginal flying, rather than embark on operating widebodies to capture volumes.

Indeed, it used to be an extremely convenient way for Ryanair to avoid taking any responsibility in case of missed connections: you bought connecting flights from them, you manage the routing and buy two tickets ... at your own risk ! I think they changed that in 2017 but last time I tried, I still couldn't find a way to book a connecting flight from their site.

BRU base is being downsized to 3 aircraft (from 4).
LBA base down to 1 aircraft.

DUB-MUC is being dropped.

Couldnt they temporarily lease 739ERs and 737-700s,to enhance capacity needed in their fleet by reallocating type of a/c to routes according to traffic demand? Not all of FRs routes warrant 189pax capacity, while other routes could more easily take a 215pax 739ER, thus freeing up more 738s to keep up with their schedule,instead of cutting routes and closing down bases?

Given the MAX backlog, will we see eventual Airbus or COMAC in Ryan colours?

marcogr12 wrote:

Couldnt they temporarily lease 739ERs and 737-700s,to enhance capacity needed in their fleet by reallocating type of a/c to routes according to traffic demand? Not all of FRs routes warrant 189pax capacity, while other routes could more easily take a 215pax 739ER, thus freeing up more 738s to keep up with their schedule,instead of cutting routes and closing down bases?

Most 737s up for lease will have been snapped up to cover grounded MAX 8’s, any remaining in the market will have sky high lease rates driven by the market demand.